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Jump The Curve Archives: 10/2007
Do the Impossible
In my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, I end the book with a chapter called “Do the Impossible.” It is my contention that as technology continues to development exponentially that things which seem impossible today will become quite commonplace tomorrow. As a video metaphor, I’d like to offer you this video from a Division III college football game this past Saturday. Watch what happens after 15 laterals:
Now just imagine what will be possible in your business after certain technologies—such as semiconductors, data storage, and Internet bandwidth—double 15 times in the next decade? If you jump the curve, I think you’ll see how the future could have an “impossible ending.”
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Stronger Than a Speeding Bullet
Because today is Halloween, I thought it only appropriate that I dress up today’s post a little and entitle it: “Stronger Than a Speeding Bullet.” Now, I know the actual saying is ”faster than a speeding bullet,” but as I explain in my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, if you are going to stay ahead of the exponential advances in technology you need to think differently.
A wonderful case in point comes compliments of this article explaining how scientists at the University of Sydney have developed a new carbon nanotube yarn that can deflect bullets traveling at speeds of up to 10,000 feet per second. But, unlike today’s bullet-proof vests, the technology doesn’t simply spread out the force of the bullet, it deflects it. The bullet, quite literally, bounces off the vest.
As I explained in this article I wrote for the Motley Fool last week, the trick for the exponential executive is open his or her mind to all the new applications that this technology (as well as other new emerging technologies) might soon create. For example, automobile manufacturers will soon be able to build stronger, lighter and safer cars. Wind turbines manufacturers will be able to create new wind turbines that are not only larger (and can thus generate more electricty), they will also be more effective at operating at lower wind speeds. (As an added benefit, carbon nanotube-enforced blades will also better withstand heavy winds). In short, carbon nanotubes can make a variety of existing technologies significantly better and, in the process, provide companies with a real competitive advantage. It is another example of what I call in my book, “walking the escalator”—or using an existing technology to improve a current product.
Beyond these applications, to the extent that carbon nanotubes lead to the development of new materials; builders, designers and architects will also begin creating entirely new designs and products. For example, take a look at this picture of the new glass skywalk over the Grand Canyon:
It is pretty cool, but my guess is that it was also very difficult to design and expensive to build. However, as new nanomaterials come into being, what else will architects and designers be able to create in the future? To start getting some ideas, it first helps to learn how to ”jump the curve.”
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Nanotechnology and the Changing Face of the Electric Utility Industry
(Editor’s Note: Earlier today, I came across an article explaining how nanotechnology could ”revolutionize the natural gas industry.” It reminded me that it in 2006 I wrote a lengthy article for Management Quarterly entitled “Nanotechnology: A Cautionary Tale for the Electric Utility Industry.” Since the article isn’t on-line anywhere and because I was never paid for the article, I thought I would reprint the article in it’s entirety.")
Nanotechnology: A Cautionary Tale for the Electric Utility Industry
In 1968, Swiss watch manufacturers controlled 80 percent of the world market in high quality watches. By 1973, their market share had plummeted to less than 25 percent and they were forced to lay off 50,000 watchmakers. The reason for the sudden reversal of fortune was quartz technology--a new, disruptive technology which ushered in an era of cheap, reliable electronic watches.
The story serves as a poignant reminder of the power of technological change. It is very relevant to the electric utility industry because nanotechnology--a new emerging set of technologies--has the potential to revolutionize the electric utility industry in much the same fashion as quartz technology changed the “timepiece” industry.
Nano What?
Before exploring some of the specifics of how nanotechnology will transform the electric industry, it is helpful to first define the term. There are two widely used definitions. In the broadest sense, nanotechnology is the precise control of matter at the atomic and molecular level to make new and better materials, products, and devices. A practical application of this is demonstrated with a simple example. Consider a lump of coal and a diamond. Both are made from the same material--carbon atoms--but how their atoms are arranged differs and matters greatly. One is a common source of energy, while the other is suitable for an engagement ring.
Nanotechnology has advanced to the stage where there are now a number of nanotechnology companies that have perfected the ability to manipulate carbon atoms and are manufacturing 2-carat diamonds, which are molecularly identical to natural diamonds, for less than $100 a stone. The significance of this advance is this: if a material as expensive and rare as a diamond can be turned into a “commodity,” then the applications of a variety of other materials, including everything from copper and ceramics to steel, can also be improved and utilized in different ways.
In practical terms, this suggests that many of the equipment and components used in the electric utility industry can be modified to yield incremental improvements in product performance. For instance, high-temperature and sulfur-tolerant nanomaterials can be manufactured to withstand the harsh conditions of coal-fired plants; or nanoscale ceramics coatings can be employed to protect steel, nickel and other metallic components from corrosion. The end benefit is that electric utility providers can increase their operating margins by making existing equipment both last longer and operate at higher levels of efficiency.
This, however, is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Nanotechnology’s greater value is revealed in the second definition which describes its incredibly small size; materials and devices measuring less than 100 nanometers are regarded as nanotechnology. The prefix “nano” is derived from the Greek term for “dwarf” and represents one-billionth of a meter. To put this in perspective, it is useful to consider the following analogy: if every character in the Encyclopaedia Britannica were 10 nanometers in width, the entire 30,000 page document could be replicated in the period at the end of this sentence.
This “smallness” is important because once materials are reduced in size to less than 100 nanometers, the realm of quantum physics takes over and materials begin to demonstrate entirely new properties. For instance, nanoscale materials are stronger, lighter, or have enhanced magnetic, optical, conductive or catalytic properties. The exploitation of these unique properties have a host of real world applications for the electric utility industry--not to mention virtually every other major industrial sector.
The Near Term Forecast: Cheaper and Cleaner
It has been said that “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” This is particularly true in the electric utility industry. In spite of the optimistic predictions of its proponents, alternative energy sources such as wind, hydro and biomass are unlikely to seriously challenge coal, oil, natural gas or nuclear power for a meaningful share of the country’s energy needs in the near future.
In fact, according to energy experts, worldwide demand for energy is expected to grow from 13 terawatts of energy today to 30 terawatts by 2050--a 150 percent increase. As a result, oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power will likely comprise a larger slice of the overall energy “pie” in the short- to mid-term, and the new emerging science of nanotechnology will help drive this growth by continuing to increase the yield of these energy sources.
However, how these traditional energy sources are produced will change. In fact, nanotechnology is already at work modifying how coal, oil, and gas are being produced. One of the more prominent examples can be found in the application of new nanoscale catalysts to the production and refining processes of our fossil fuel resources.
Today, most of the world’s oil reserves lie in distant, politically unstable regions. For years, the economics of oil have made this a vexing but intractable problem. Now, with the price of oil hovering near $90 a barrel, the heavy tars of northern Canada (home to the world’s second largest reserve of oil) are becoming an increasingly attractive option as a source of potential energy, and nanotechnology is helping facilitate this transition of the tar sands into an ever more viable (and profitable) source of oil.
A number of companies, including ChevronTexaco, are now actively exploring how nanoscale catalysts can be employed to make the thick tar-like sands of northern Canada into a lighter, more refined and, ultimately, more economic source of oil. Recently, Halliburton, Inc. has indicated it intends to employ nanocatalysts to remove more sulfur. The net result is increased yield and greater supplies of this important fuel. (Nanoscale catalysts, because they have extraordinarily large surface-to-area ratio are less expensive to use than regular catalysts--because less of the catalytic material is used--and they have the added advantage of creating little or no byproduct or waste.)
Nanoscale catalysts are even finding a niche in keeping old refineries productive. As refineries age, the possibility of accidents and disasters, due to wear and tear, necessitates that they be operated at lower temperatures and pressures. New nanocatalysts are now being developed that allow these facilities to continue operational production at these lower levels of temperature and pressure without sacrificing yield of refined oil.
Still another exciting use of nanotechnology resides in the use of nanofilters. Engelhard, Inc., a large material science and chemical company which is now owned by BASF, has created a molecular gate system that can separate nitrogen from natural gas which is currently to nitrogen-rich to be considered usable. The technology works by creating pores that are smaller than a nanometer. By manufacturing a pore 3.7 angstroms in size, Engelhard has created a filter that can capture nitrogen (which measure 3.6 angstroms) while diverting the slightly larger methane molecules (3.8 angstroms) into the pipeline. Company officials have estimated that employing the technology in mid-sized refineries could add 40,000 barrels of natural gas by removing nitrogen.
Other companies are attempting to utilize nanocatalysts to purify coal at the molecular level, and convert it into liquid coal--an advance which would dramatically increase where and how coal could be used as an energy source. Headwaters, Inc. has even partnered with China largest coal company, Shenhua Group, to construct a pilot plant in China.
Nanotechnology also offers advances in environmental protection when converting our natural resources to electricity. Due to their high surface-to-area ratio (the characteristics that makes them such effective catalysts), nanoparticles can render harmless many of the toxins that have made coal a less attractive energy option. And in 2005, a “mercury sponge” came on the market that treats stack emissions from coal-fired plants. The sponge is reported to capture 99.9 percent of the mercury that is released from a coal plant, and places the mercury levels well below the Environmental Protection Agency’s discharge limits. (In addition to capturing mercury, nanotechnology researchers are now investigating how they can capture other metals from power plant emissions.)
In other areas, researchers at Purdue University have developed a new nanoscale palladium catalyst that combusts natural gas more cleanly than conventional methods. Essentially, it eliminates the flame that burns natural gas and replaces it with a catalyst that combusts methane at lower temperature, while emitting less pollution-causing nitrogen-oxide.
Finally, given the increasing amount of political and public attention placed on global climate change, even nuclear energy, which is already experiencing a mini-resurgence in popularity as clean, carbon-free energy source, could gain further momentum because of nanotechnology. To date, one of the nuclear industry’s greatest liabilities has been the storage of nuclear waste. Nanotechnology may be poised to offer a solution in the form of nano-engineered materials that could provide highly effective and long-lasting barriers for the creation of safe nuclear waste repositories. If successful, it could clear the way for the U.S. to break its self-imposed 30-year moratorium on the construction of new nuclear power plants.
A Reduction in Demand and a Smarter System
Today, approximately 25 percent of the electricity consumed in the U.S. is used to power the lighting in homes and commercial properties. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, this level of energy consumption could be cut in half by 2025, and $100 billion saved in the process, if only the average consumer would switch to solid-state--or light emitting diode (LED)--lighting.
Presently, a variety of LED lights exist and are being employed in niche applications such as traffic lights, billboards and cell phone displays. Although they make sense from a cost-benefit analysis perspective, many consumers have been reluctant to switch to LED lighting because of the large, upfront financial investment. (Typically, they are three to four times as expensive as regular lights).
A host of nanotechnology-related developments may, however, tip the scale in favor of the energy efficient choice. For instance, carbon nanotube filaments, which use less energy, emit more light and last longer, could replace tungsten filaments in light bulbs. Similarly, nanocrystals, (also referred to as quantum dots) have been demonstrated to be seven times more efficient than the incandescent light bulb. Furthermore, because these nanocrystals can be incorporated into flexible plastics, the possibility exists that future lights will not only be cheaper, brighter and longer-lasting, they may also be molded into new, more flexible shapes and used in a host of new and innovative ways.
While lighting will be the area where nanotechnology has the largest and most immediate potential impact on energy consumption, other nanotechnology applications will also lower energy consumption. For example, “smart” windows, which can change reflective properties to attract or deflect sunlight depending on the customer’s needs, and smaller and more energy efficient computers and other electronic devices will also contribute to energy savings. Similarly, improved insulation materials, such as those manufactured by Aspen Aerogels, have two to eight times the thermal insulation properties of today’s best insulation materials, could have a noticeable impact on overall energy demand. All of these products are made possible by advancements in nanotechnology.
The greatest long-term cost savings, however, are likely to come from the creation of “Intelligent Energy Networks”—or integrated systems of computers and sensors that gauge and regulate customer energy use. To be sure, such network exist today, but as nanotechnology enables computers and sensors to become ever smaller--while becoming correspondingly more powerful--not only will the cost effectiveness of deploying such devices decrease, the number of possible applications will increase.
Currently, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is conducting experiments in a project called GridWise, which allows customers to modify their power-hungry home appliances (e.g. water heaters, dryers, and dishwashers) with sensors and built-in computers. The devices permit users to better regulate their energy use by setting those appliances to take advantage of off-peak pricing or, alternatively, controlling the devices so that they only operate when energy prices fall within a prescribed range. In this way, they will help an increasing number of commercial and industrial consumers better manage their energy consumption.
These smart devices/sensors can also be used by electric utility providers to better manage resources and meet fluctuating energy demand by monitoring energy use across a large geographic region and. More importantly, the next generation of nanosensors, which companies like Intel Corporation are actively working on developing, will be better able to detect everything from computer glitches and fires, and thus prevent problems on both the distribution and transmission system.
In addition to efficiency improvements at the consumer level and advances in distribution system monitoring, nanotechnology can provide immediate improvements to the electrical utility industry’s system of moving power. Industry experts agree that by most standards, today’s energy transmission system is inefficient, inflexible and subject to blackouts. While a variety of factors contribute to this problem, one of the largest is that a vast majority of the existing electrical grid utilizes copper wire to transmit the energy. Not only is copper relatively heavy, it also loses about seven percent of the electricity it conducts. Next generation superconducting cables are currently addressing this issue, but nanotechnology will soon lead to even more progress as material scientists figure out how to better arrange the molecular structure of existing materials to more efficiently transmit electrons, as well as create newer and even better superconducting materials.
The real pay-off may be carbon nanotubes, which are unbelievably thin, possess 100 times the strength of steel, and have only one-sixth the density of aluminum. Their most potent asset, however, is their amazing ability to efficiently conduct electricity. Carbon nanotubes are known to have a current carrying capacity of one billion amps--a thousand fold improvement over the carrying capacity of copper wires. This combination of strength and conductivity suggests that in the future, energy providers will neither have to place transmission poles as closely together nor even have to site new transmission lines or dig up city streets to lay new wires. The existing lines can simply be replaced with super strong, highly conductive carbon nanotube wires.
A secondary advantage of such “quantum” wires is that they may make it possible to generate electricity using oil and gas on location in distant, hard-to-reach places and then transmit that power via superconducting wires directly to an existing electric grid. The wires will remove the cost of transporting coal, oil or gas —by rail, truck, ship, or pipe —to a power plant. The cost savings could be immense.
A Change of Direction: Fuel Cells and Solar Cells
The aforementioned applications of nanotechnology, while real and significant, are merely the equivalent of the watch industry making a watch run longer and more accurately for less money. As such, they are important but they also represent just one side of nanotechnology. The longer term and, ultimately, more perilous aspect of nanotechnology is that for the electric utility industry it could be what quartz technology was to the watch industry--a paradigm shift of historic proportions.
Essentially, quartz technology shifted the watch-making paradigm from one of hand crafting mechanical timepieces to one of machine assembling electronic watches. In a comparable manner, nanotechnology could shift the electric utility industry from a centralized fossil fuel driven generation and power delivery system to a decentralized system, reliant upon alternative energy sources.. In particular, there are two sources of energy where advances in nanotechnology are enabling a significant amount of technological progress: fuel cell technology and solar cell technology.
To date, the safe production, storage and transmission of hydrogen required for fuel cell manufacture has been a difficult barrier to overcome. This is about to change.New nanoscale catalysts have recently been created which can separate high purity hydrogen from a number of reformed fuel sources. Furthermore, new nanoscale membranes can now conduct protons three times as efficiently as today’s state-of-the-art proton exchange membranes, and are nearing commercial scale production.
The combination of these two advances suggests that natural gas, methane, and possibly even ammonia and biomass may soon be viable sources of hydrogen; and the fuel cells utilizing this hydrogen will have a higher power density. This means that small fuel cells, such as Plug Power Incorporated’s new Home Energy Fuel Cell System, may soon be suitable for providing adequate power for a number of existing home and business functions.
The economics of solar cell technology is also rapidly improving, in large measure due to advances in nanotechnology. The progress made suggests that it is possible that the amount of electric energy derived from solar energy--now estimated to be a meager one-tenth of one percent--will soon increase significantly. A number of nanotechnology companies are incorporating new nanoparticles—which are very good at capturing and harvesting the sun’s photons—into flexible plastic sheets. The end result is expected to be solar cells so lightweight and flexible that they can literally be wrapped on the roofs of homes and businesses.
One company, Nanosys, has already received over $50 million in venture capital funding, and has signed a deal with Japanese manufacturing giant Matsushita to begin producing such thin rolls as early as 2008. And another company, Konarka, has received a comparable amount of funding--including large sums of money from ChevronTexaco, as well as France’s largest electric utility provider, Electricite de France--to produce plastic solar cells which may be even lighter and cheaper.
The possibility of economically manufacturing these flexible solar cells suggests that, at a minimum, solar energy could soon begin generating an increasing percentage of the world’s energy needs. Moreover, as the efficiency of the solar cell and fuel cell technology increases and the price drops, more consumers will be likely to purchase the devices. Homes and businesses that are currently purchasing their electricity from utility providers may soon be generating a sizeable portion of their own energy needs. Current electric utility customers might soon become the utility’s future competitors.
Sound unlikely? Perhaps. But then the notion of cheap, electronic watches threatening the Swiss watch industry probably sounded just as unlikely to the Swiss watch-makers.
Conclusion
Bob Gower, a former energy industry executive, offers perhaps the best advice for electric utility executives seeking to understand nanotechnology. He cautons: “Executives should be paying a lot of attention to nanotechnology as a way to improve their existing processes and systems, but they should be paying even more attention to the next generation of nanotechnology developments which will be potentially disruptive to the entire energy industry.”
It is good advice and it brings us back full-circle to the Swiss watch story. The Swiss watch manufacturers were not “blind-sided” by quartz technology. The technology was perfected by researchers at Swiss academic institutions and, ironically, many of the researchers urged their colleagues in the watch industry to utilize the technology. Unfortunately, Swiss watch officials simply could not comprehend either how quartz technology could replace the need for high quality mechanical watches, or why their customers would ever want an inexpensive electronic watch.
Nanotechnology is now nearing a position that is comparable to where quartz technology was in the mid-1960s. The only question that remains is whether officials in the electric utility industry will comprehend how nanotechnology can be harnessed to improve their existing products and, more importantly, how it might cause a paradigm shift of historic proportions in terms of the types of energy being produced, and who will be producing that energy.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Money Makes the World Go Round
Money makes the world go around, or so it is said. I don’t know where this statement came from, but it probably dates back to at least Christopher Columbus’s time. It might surprise you to know, though, that Columbus did not gain rapid approval for his expedition, nor did he come by the financial resources for his adventures easily. The famed explorer was rejected at least three times--by the king of Portugal, the duke of Medina-Sedonia, and the count of Medina-Celi--before finally the winning approval from the king and queen of Spain.
It is still difficult to obtain money, but for bright, motivated people with good ideas there is plenty of money to be found. To this end, many of the exponential advances outlined in this blog are now being funded by large corporations with deep pockets. For instance, IBM has large initiatives underway in both supercomputing and brain scanning. Toyota and Honda are committing sizeable resources toward the development of robotics, and Intel, BASF, and GE are funding multimillion-dollar nanotechnology initiatives.
Venture capitalists are also investing considerable sums in promising biotechnology and renewable energy start-ups, and, of course, universities and the federal governments are all making strategic investments in a myriad of emerging technologies.
But even all of this money isn’t enough for some. In recent years there has been an explosion of individuals and foundations willing to grant large cash prizes to individuals or companies capable of achieving certain technological milestones. One of the better known and more recent examples is the Ansari X Prize, which awarded $10 million to Burt Rutan and Jim Benson in 2004 for becoming the first individuals to build a private space vehicle capable of carrying three people 100 kilometers above the earth, return, then repeat the trick within two weeks.
The foundation is now offering similar prizes for the first person or group to sequence 100 human genomes in ten days, and another prize to whoever can produce an automobile capable of getting 100 miles per gallon. (Note: The following 5-minute video provides an overview of the genomics X Prize.)
In early 2007 Richard Branson, the founder of Virgin Airlines, got into the act by offering a $25 million prize to anyone who could develop a technology capable of taking 1 billion pounds of carbon dioxide out of the environment. On a slightly more business-oriented level, NetFlix is offering a $1 million prize for anyone who can create an algorithm that improves the accuracy of its movie recommendation service.
It might be easy to dismiss these prizes as mere publicity stunts, but remember Charles Lindbergh didn’t just fly across the Atlantic to gain world fame—he did it to claim the $25,000 Orteig Prize. And in claiming the prize, he not only achieved fame, he also gave a much needed boost to the nascent aerospace industry. It is quite possible that Ansari’s X Prize will do much the same for genomics and DARPA’s $2 million “Urban Challenge” could do the same for robotics.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Where’s the God$@!# Remote … Oh, Never Mind
This past weekend one of my children decided to hide the remote to our televsion. Normally, I’m a pretty mild mannered guy but as the clock was approaching noon and I realized that I was only moments away from missing the opening kick-off of the Minnesota Vikings-Philadelphia Eagles game, my patience reached a limited and I ordered my kids to search the entire house until they found the “God$#@! remote!.” (Luckily, for them, they did ... but, in retrospect, I probably would have been better off not watching the game as my Vikings squandered yet another winnable game).
Nevertheless, the whole ugly affair left me thinking that there has to be a better way of identifying lost remotes—as well as the myriad of other assorted household objects that seem to regularly go missing. Well, after reading this article entitled ”Technology, the Stealthy Tattletale,” in today’s New York Times, I am convinced there soon will be. In simple terms, the article explains how the confluence of technological advances in the Internet, cellphone and GPS technology are now conspiring to do everything from help police capture bank robbers to allowing parents to secretly monitor their kids travel itineraries.
As I am wont to do, I’d encourage you to not simply think about what this existing technology implies for your business today, but rather encourage you to ”jump the curve” and think about the types of applications it will enable tomorrow. Earlier today, I wrote a piece explaining the existing state of RFID technology, but like so many other emerging technologies, RFID is only going to get better. So, too, is Internet bandwidth, GPS technology and the Semantic Web. (Here’s an interesting article on that topic.)
Among the easier future applications to envision is that a variety of household objects such as your TV remote, keys and, quite possibly, even your shoes will be able to be quickly located via your cellphone. (And, if you lose your cellphone, you can locate that devise on home computer.) Longer-term, if you look at how companies such as Inrix are using these technologies to match traffic-flow with weather reports, accident reports and even miscelleneous information (such as whether a sporting event has just finished and thousands of people are filing out onto to the roads), it’ll soon be possible to use technology to help you get from point A to B in the quickest amount of time possible. And, of course, once you get home you’ll also be able to find your remote immediately.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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RFID Gets Untracked
Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags were supposed to have their big coming out party in 2005. That was the year Wal-Mart announced to great fanfare that it would require suppliers to begin placing the small chips—essentially computer processors with antennas that can wirelessly transmit detailed information—on thousands of products to help it better track inventory.
It’s now almost three years later, and progress has been painfully slow. Only a handful of Wal-Mart’s 120 distribution centers use RFID, and the biggest reason is cost. The typical RFID chip still costs $0.10 to $0.20, which limits their value on lower-margin items.
This slow progress has led some analysts to label RFID as yet another overhyped, underperforming technology. A closer look, however, shows that verdict may be a bit premature.
In just the past few months, several RFID projects have started, and some are already delivering results. In January, 3M announced it would work with the prestigious Mayo Clinic to use RFID tags to track cancer biopsies. The project comes on the heels of an even larger $3.75 million, three-year project with the U.S. Army to track the medical records of 150,000 service personnel. The two projects have caused 3M’s CEO to identify RFID as an important part of his company’s future growth strategy.
In February, the British government announced plans to use RFID technology to reduce the number of counterfeit cigarettes reaching the market. Lest you think the amount is trivial, Her Majesty’s government estimates that 27% of all cigarettes in Britain are counterfeit, costing the government $5 billion in lost tax revenue per year.
In the wake of last fall’s E. coli spinach scare, Dole Food has started using RFID to track lettuce and other produce as they move from the field to the grocery shelf. In the event of another outbreak, the company can quickly track the problem back to its source. In addition to potentially saving lives, the technology could save the company untold amounts of money by limiting the scope of a product recall. If you doubt this, I’d encourage you to read this posting I wrote last month explaining how Dole’s investment has already paid off by preventing a repeat of last year’s E coli outbreak.
But for even more promising applications, executive should pay attention to the pharmaceutical industry. The sector represents less than 2% of the overall RFID market, but this may be about to change in a big way.
Since May 2006, Pfizer has been conducted a large-scale RFID pilot project to authenticate all Viagra prescriptions and eliminate counterfeits. The company says it will extend the program because of its positive impact on the safety of the pharmaceutical supply chain.
An even more interesting project is scheduled to begin this fall when Cardinal Health, an $81 billion global provider of pharmaceutical products, will outfit its Sacramento, Calif., distribution facility with RFID.
This may just be just the tip of the iceberg, though. Florida and California, together with the Food and Drug Administration, have recently mandated that pharmaceutical companies verify the pedigree of all drugs from the point of manufacture to the end consumer, as a way of limiting health problems caused by counterfeit drugs.
You might expect the industry to oppose such an expansive mandate, but in this case, the pharmaceutical companies are interested—according to RNCOS, a research and consulting firm, the industry loses as much as $30 billion annually to counterfeit drugs.
The success of RFID will, of course, lie in companies’ ability to justify the upfront costs. But even here, RFID is starting to shine. In May, Toshiba reported a very strong return on investment from the RFID tracking system it installed at a manufacturing facility in Germany. According to the company, the technology reduced employee handling time by 75% and increased daily production capacity by 81%.
Stories like these get supporters of RFID excited about the technology, and rightly so. Prosing young companies such Zebra Technologies, Printronix, VeriChip and Alien Technology are all making great strides. Moreover, some familiar names such as IBM, Hewlett-Packard, Lockheed Martin and Motorola are also all investing heavily in the field.
These larger companies have the advantage of the economies of scale necessary to drop prices to a point where the devices are compelling for smaller business to adopt. They also have the resources to help customers make more sense out of all the data the chips devices can collect and transmit, as well as to devise new uses for the technology.
For instance, IBM has developed software to let manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers and customs agents work with and share the same data, while Motorola is exploring how RFID chips might help businesses adopt digital cash by allowing consumers to use their cell phones as payment devices.
RFID is still an evolving technology, but it is evolving fast, and businesses are beginning to put it to profitable use. The Exponential Executive is advised to keep an eye on on the technology because it appears to be advancing exponentially. If you doubt this, check out this article on Hitachi’s “Powder” RFID technology ... or if you prefer, just look at this picture:
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Enlarge Our Minds to the Idea of a Space Elevator
One hundred and eighty-two years ago today, New York Governor DeWitt Clinton boarded the Seneca Chief and traveled 500 miles from Buffalo to New York City to mark the opening of the Erie Canal. It was the beginning of an enterprise of immense economic and political significance in that it expanded the reach of American commerce and established New York as one of the world’s leading financial centers.
It is easy, in retrospect, to think the canal’s success was ordained from the beginning. It wasn’t. In 1810, when DeWitt Clinton, then mayor of New York City, first proposed building the 363-mile, 83 lock canal, Gouverneur Morris, responded by saying “Our minds are not yet enlarged to the size of so great an object.” Another Founding Father, Thomas Jefferson, was more biting in his criticism, writing to Clinton, “It is a splendid project, and may be executed a century hence. It is little short of madness to think of it this day.”
Jefferson’s reasoning was solid. The project was budgeted to cost $6 million—a sum then equal to three-fourths of the federal government budget. In fact, the scale of the project was so massive that it was determined it would be the biggest public works project since the Great Pyramid and would consist of digging and removing over 11 million cubic yards of earth. It is no wonder that many decried it as “Clinton’s ditch.”
Fortunately, Clinton persisted and while he wasn’t able to persuade the federal government to support the idea he did win over the citizens of New York and in 1817 the state legislature approved the funding for the project.
Amazingly, the canal was completed on October 26, 1825—two years ahead of schedule. More impressive still, the state’s debt off was paid-off in a decade’s time.
With this little bit of history in mind, let me now introduce you to a modern-day equivalent of the Erie Canal: the space elevator.
To many, the idea of constructing an elevator into geosynchronous orbit might be, to echo the words of Jefferson, a splendid project a century hence but little short of madness today. Nevertheless the idea is beginning to elicit consideration from a growing number of serious scientists.
In its simplest form, the elevator would consist of a ribbon of super-strong carbon nanotubes be tethered to a large platform located near the equator and attached to a space structure at the other. To get from earth to space a cab would climb the ribbon. (Further details can be found at www.liftport.com)
Without question a great many obstacles must be overcome in order to achieve this vision, but they are just that: obstacles. They are not barriers. Ironically, as with the Erie Canal, the greatest barrier may not be technical in nature but rather political—namely, our leaders (and perhaps our country) have lost their ability to think big.
But like the Erie Canal, a space elevator would be more than just a testament to good old-fashion American ingenuity and know-how. It would have broad, practical economic and political ramifications. For instance, just as the Erie Canal lowered the cost of shipping a ton of flour from $120 to less than $6, a space elevator could similarly open up space by radically reducing the price of hauling the equipment and supplies into orbit. Today, it costs anywhere between $10,000 and $20,000 to launch a single pound of material into space. With a space elevator, replacing and updating the communication and satellite infrastructure upon which modern society is now so dependent would be fast, inexpensive and easy.
Beyond this, if America is serious about establishing a permanent presence on the moon and, ultimately, Mars; this country will need a dramatically more efficient process for delivering cargo and personnel into a space. Our present system of using individual rockets is about as efficient as hauling flour by horseback.
It has been estimated that a space elevator can be built for $12 billion. It is a large amount of money to be sure, but so too was the Erie Canal. Thanks, however, to some farsighted and courageous leadership a profitable canal was built and, in the process, it turned the course of history. How fitting then if on October 26, 2025—the bicentennial of the opening of the Erie Canal—America could send a group of people into space on an elevator. It is possible but first we must enlarge our minds to “so great an object.”
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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The Swiss Army Phone of the Future: Part 2
Sometimes the world is moving so fast that even I have a hard time keeping up with the pace of accelerating technologies—and I devote a good part of my day to making it a point to stay on top of these things. Well, anyways, the other day I wrote a posting on the ”swiss army phone of the future” in which I decribed how the phone of the future will not only serve as a phone, address book, MP3/video player, Internet browser and video recorder, but also as a medical diagnotician and a personal cash dispenser.
No sooner had I posted the article, though, than I came across this article from BBC News entitled ”Hand-held supercomputers on the way.” It wasn’t terribly insightful, but it did remind me that due to advances in nanotechnnology—especially in the fields of nanowires and carbon nanotubes—the cellphone of the future will likely have the processing capability of today’s most powerful supercomputers. If you wondering where this might lead, I’d encourage you to watch the short video posted below that shows how researchers at Accenture have developed an algorithm that allows phone users to snap a picture of an object and then have that object searched over the Internet.
Among the other things that this will allow users to do is take a picture of a food item in the store and not only do a quick price comparison as well as learn about its calorie count, the users could even find out if all the ingredients are organic and discern what other food types or wines might go with the product in question.
In short, I think it is safe to say that the phone of the future will become an even more indispensable part of our life than it already is.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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The Future of Health Care: Part 1
This past Tuesday I had the opportunity to give the keynote presentation at the Wisconsin Hospital Association’s annual meeting. The title of my talk was “The Future of Health Care.” At the behest of the conference organizer, I provided an advance copy of my presentation so that they could make copies for the participants. The only problem was that the organizers asked for my presentation a few weeks ago and the pace of technological change—especially as it relates to the health care industry—is so rapid that I was compelled to update a number of slides prior to my talk.
As proof of the accelerating pace of technological change, I’d like to just walk you through the past few weeks of technological and scientific advancement in the health care industry. On Tuesday, researchers at Chonnam National University in Korea announced that they had created a microscopic robot small enough to travel through blood vessels. The robot is so capable that once it is inside a blocked artery it is able to release drugs to dissolve blood clots. According to this 2007 study, deaths from severe heart attacks after hospital admission have already been halved in the past six years. As a result of advances such as this microscopic robot, it is reasonable to believe that we will continue to make even more progress.
Last week, researchers at the Institute for Advanced Bioscience in Tusuroka, Japan successfully demonstrated that they had used inkjet printers to “print” human stem cells. The significance of this advance is that society is now one step closer to creating implantable organs.
In an unrelated advance, researchers in both Japan and the United States also announced amazing strides in the creation of brain-neural technology (such as I wrote about in this posting earlier this week). This advance could greatly aide patients with rehabilitation. If that fails, the technology might still allow patients to control their wheelchairs by thought alone. To this end, I’d encourage you to watch this video in order to understand how the technology works:
On a slightly more practical and near-term basis, IBM announced last week that it had created a virtualization technology that allows doctors to interact with patients using only a avatar—a 3-D representation of the human body. To be sure, the technology seems a little impersonal, but if you are living in a rural area and can only have your avatar be “seen” over the Internet by a doctor in the big city, it beats the alternative—which is not being seen at all.
I could go on and discuss how carbon nanotubes will soon lead to better implants; explain how super-computers are now creating better drugs; document the startling advances in being made in manufacturing synthetic blood; or even explain how recent progress in the field of metagenomics and gene sequencing are inching ever closer to revolutionizing health care, but my point is that it is imperative health care executive learn to ”jump the curve” because exponential advances in a variety of technologies are going to radically transform their business in ways that are almost impossible to fathom today. And, while these changes won’t occur over night, they are likely to happen sooner rather than later. The time to begin preparing for this tsunami of change is now!
P.S. Remember these are just the advances that have been made in the last few weeks, I haven’t even begun to document the bulk of my presentation which outlines the advances in RFID technology, robotics, nanotechnology, biotechnology, pharmacogenomics and proteinomics, as well as the innovative work that such information technology companies as Google, Microsoft and Intel are pursuing in applying exponential advances in semiconductors, data storage, software, algorithms and bandwidth to the delivery of health care.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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The Swiss Army Phone of the Future
It is sometimes hard to remember that it was only 15 years ago that the first cellphones came into existence. Moreover, they were big, bulky, expensive and of limited capability. Today, the average $79 cellphone serves as a phone, address book, MP3/TV player, camera, Internet browser, and video recorder. What else will they be able to do in the future?
For starters, as I explained in this piece a couple of week’s ago, the cellphone of the future will likely serve as a low-cost diagnostic technician that can tell you everything from if your breathe is bad to whether the pollen count is reaching such a level that your allergies might kick in. Beyond this, cellphones are likely to become an even more dependable security blanket for people. They already serve as a useful instrument in the event your car breaks down on the freeway, but two articles from today’s Internet offer additional glimpses into how cellphones of the near future might function. Audi is now installing cellphones into its cars that will snap a picture of the the thief in the event your car is stolen, and in Japan women are now downloading recordings designed to ward off “gropers.”
Such applications are just the beginning. It has been said that the average dentist can diagnose 156 diseases just by looking at your mouth. In the future, your cellphone might not be able to accurately diagnose that many diseases, but it’ll probably get pretty close. I also think in the near future your cellphone will be able to accurately assess the level of stress in your voice and automatically dial the nearest police office if you yell for “help.” Who knows you might even be able to spray mace from your cellphone in the future.
Regardless, it is not hard to imagine how the cellphone will soon become the 21st century equivalent of the Swiss Army knife—a tiny device that can do a lot of different things. As we move toward a digital cash environment, I am confident that you will even be able to buy a beer using only your phone within the next few years. Now, if we can only get the phone to also open that bottle of beer then we’ll really be cooking!
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Futurists Can Say the Dumbest Things
As someone who is described as a futurist, I make it a point to read up on what other futurists are saying about the field. To this end, I would encourage you to read this short article in Forbes that was written by James Canton. An even more insightful interview can be found in this lengthy discussion with Ian Pearson, who is a futurist for British Telecom.
On occasions, though, I will come across an article either by—or about—a futurist that will make me cringe. Yesterday, I stumbled across just such an article. It comes from the Australian newspaper, The Age and it profiles Ray Hammond, “a European author and futurologist.” In defense of Mr. Hammond, let me begin by saying that I am in wholehearted agreement with this theory of “accelerating exponential technologies”—the same idea lies at the heart of my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve.
Yet, quite surprisingly, Mr. Hammond is quoted in the same article as saying “I can be certain there will be an energy crisis in the next 50 to 100 years.” From my perspective, this is an absolutely asinine thing to say. If Mr. Hammond truly believes in the idea of “accelerating exponential technologies,” does he somehow seem to think that such technological advances will simply jump over the energy industry?
When I scan the future, I have reached the absolute opposite conclusion as Mr. Hammond. I believe in 50 to 100 years we will be living in an era of cheap, clean, sustainable and abundant energy. As proof, I would submit how advances in nanotechnology are likely to lead to the creation of highly-efficient, low-cost, flexible polymer solar cells. If people doubt this prediction, I encourage them to review the work that companies such as NanoSolar, Miasole and Konarka are currently doing in the field and then extrapolate those advances out 50 years.
I believe that new advances in nanomaterials will lead to highly-efficient batteries. Nanotechnology might also make fuel cells radically more efficient, and new nanoparticles could usher in the age of clean coal. Who knows, new nanomaterials might even be developed that can safely store radioactive waste from nuclear power plants. If this occurs, a good deal of opposition to nuclear power might erode. Similarly, advances in synthetic biology could herald a new era of inexpensive, clean biofuels such as I described in this earlier post.
In short, based on today’s current level of technological progress I see absolutely no reason for Mr. Hammond’s pessisism. To be fair, I’ll admit that my version of the future might also not come true; but unlike Mr. Hammond I don’t claim to know the future with certainty. And that’s really my point, whenever you hear a futurist—including myself, Ray Hammond, James Canton or Ian Pearson—claim they know with “certainty” what the future will look like in 50 years; you shouldn’t just take it with a grain of salt, you should call “Bullshit” because no one knows with “certainty” what the future will look like.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Pong and the Future of the President’s Brain
As a young teenager in the late 1970’s, I spent a good many hours in my damp, poorly-lit basement battling my older brother in “Pong” on our family’s television console. At the time, I couldn’t in my wildest imagination have envisioned that Pong’s successors--such as the Super Mario Brothers, Grand Theft Auto and John Madden’s NFL--would someday rival and eventually surpass, in terms of economic clout and output, that other diversionary stalwart of my youth--the movie industry.
It would have been even more difficult for me to fathom that the game’s descendants would also be utilized by U.S. military planners to help train the soldier of the 21st century. Yet that is precisely what the Defense Department is now doing. It invests millions of dollars annually and sends thousands of U.S. soldiers to train in simulated environments in order to better prepare them for the chaos and confusion they will actually face in real combat.
The technology is now so advanced that not only does it succeed in getting their hearts pounding and bodies sweating, but some soldiers--after they have experienced actual combat--have said that the simulated experience actually felt more like what they expected combat to feel like than the real thing. Imagine that.
I have been increasingly reminded of the video gaming industry’s startling advances as I contemplate the progress researchers in the cognitive sciences continue to with neural chips. In late 2004, it was widely reported that a paraplegic from Rhode Island had a small device implanted in his brain which allowed him to send an email just by thinking. The implant, produced by Massachusetts-based Cyberkinetics, is called the Braingate Neural Interface System and it has been awarded FDA regulatory approval. In its simplest sense, the technology translates electronic impulses generated by the brain and turns them into commands that can operate a computer.
To be sure, it was an impressive technology but it is still a fairly crude device. So to, though, was Pong when it first came out. And like that first video game, neural technology is only going to get better. Just as Pong was fueled by exponential advances in computer processing power, data storage and graphic software to the point where it could become a legitimate war-training tool; so too will brain neural technology be fueled by exponential advances in information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology and the cognitive sciences to the point where it can become a viable and effective tool for our country’s most senior decision-makers.
Today, there are more than 55,000 neuroscientists around the world working feverishly to increase our understanding of the human brain and improve its functions. In addition to accessing extensive databases in their quest to build better models of the brain, they are also adding ever more knowledge to those databases.
Furthermore, a variety of new tools are being developed and added to their arsenal. These, in turn, are further compounding our understanding of how the human mind operates. Supercomputers like BlueGene L are being dedicated to reverse engineer the brain; fMRI technology is providing detailed maps of certain regions of the brain; and, as Ray Kurzweil points out in his book, The Singularity, the resolution of non-invasive brain-scanning devices is doubling every twelve months.
On top of this impressive array of hardware, software and human capital, an equally impressive amount of money is being invested in pursuit of a deeper understanding of the human brain. For instance, the National Institute of Health is investing millions in the cognitive sciences, and it is now public knowledge that DARPA has funded groups to build sensing electrodes into a helmet that is capable of picking up brain signals without surgical implants. Such advances portend the day when jet fighters can operate a plane by thought alone.
But if DARPA is investing in a technology to create better fighter jocks, what else is it working on? Moreover, where are all these advances headed?
One possibility is the development of neural tools to aid our decision-makers in making better and faster decisions. To do this, one would need many things, including 1) the ability to access all available information that could possibly affect the decision; 2) a means to process that information and discern recognizable patterns from it; and 3) create an algorithm capable of calculating all possible outcomes and assessing the desirable and probability of those outcome. In short, it would seem to be an exercise of almost unfathomable complexity.
But is it, in relative terms, any more complex than asking those first developers of the game of Pong to contemplate constructing a video game that feels as real as actual combat?
I don’t believe so. As proof, I would encourage you to watch this video of Claudia Mitchell controlling her robotic prosthetic arm by thought alone. (It is controlled by a tiny computer chip located in her brain. The chip deciphers her neurons into electronic bits and then sends to her robotic arm where they are, in turn, translated into the prescribed action that her brain was “thinking.")
Therefore, the question we need to ask ourselves is not simply whether our decision-makers should use such cognitive tools to make better decisions in the future, but rather whether they should be mandated to do so--even if that includes the possibility of having to implant a neural chip in their brain.
The idea might sound positively ludicrous but, in 1978, I am certain the notion of training soldiers with video games to fight more effectively would have sounded equally preposterous.
The advances in the cognitive sciences, as well as the exponential trends facilitating the field’s development are real. The time to begin contemplating such seemingly radical notions is now. Given the accelerating pace of scientific advancement, there is a realistic chance such advances could be upon us within a decade’s time.
Therefore, to jump start the debate, I would pose the following question to all forward-thinking think tanks and debate clubs: RESOLVED: By 2016, the President of the United States should be required to utilize state-of-the-art neural technology during all periods of international crisis.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Is the Future Really Drying Up?
The New York Times Magazine yesterday ran an article entitled, ”The Future is Drying Up” documenting the growing crisis over water in the western part of America. For the most part, it was a thoughtful and sobering look at a situation that desparately cries out for action. It is hard to argue with the fact that the region’s surging population is putting an enormous amount of pressure on the area’s dwindling water supply. The picture above of Lake Powell, alone, is quite telling.
Nevertheless, the article has a major fault: it barely touches on technology’s ability to help address—and potentially alleviate—this problem. Now, I’m not suggesting that people in the region should count on a quick, technological fix to their situation; but, at the same time, I believe it is silly to not acknowledge how various emerging technologies might help resolve this problem. More specifically, I take offense with the author’s suggestion that to even look at technological solution is, and I quote, “almost certainly the wrong way to think about the situation.”
To my way of thinking this is yet another example of linear thinking -- or what I describe as a view of the world that is almost incapable of understanding how emerging technologies might radically reshape the environment around us.
For example, new advances in sensor technology will help people better monitor their water usage. These same sensors can be used to more accurately price water. If people know both how much water they are using and how much it costs, my prediction is that water usage will decrease.
Secondly, because agriculture is the biggest source of water consumption, I find it troubling that the author didn’t at least acknowledge how new advances in genetically modified corn and wheat might lead to new strains of crops that need little water.
Third, new advances in wind and solar power might drive down the cost of powering desalination plants to the point where some water can be economically shipped from the Pacific Ocean to Arizona and Colorado. Related to this point, new advances in nanotechnology might also improve filtering technology. Again, such advances might make desalination a more viable solution.
Finally, new advances in nanomaterials could lead to some very innovative applications in how people get there water in the future. For instance, this piece explains how researchers are studying how the African beetle can collect water droplets from the air. The implication is that large swaths of the material (which would mimics the beetle’s wing) might capture enough water everynight to fill a bath tub or wash a load of clothes.
Again, I want to make it clear that I am not advocating people take no action to address this serious problem, my point is that when assessing any situation it is important to view the world not just as it is today, but as it will be in 10, 25 and 50 years.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Form and Function: New Applications for Clothing
It is an age old question in the clothing industry: form or function. In the near future the question is going to become increasing irrelevant as clothing begins to perform a variety of functions—at the same time. MIT’s Technology Review has a fascinating article entitled ”A New Nanogenerator” which outlines how new advances in the field of nanotechnology might soon enable wireless biosensors to be embedded directly into clothing. Among the many things this will allow is that users—as well as their doctors—will be able to monitor from afar everything from their heart rate to their blood pressure.
Beyond that, because these nanowires can generate 16 times as much electricity as older nanowires, it might soon be possible for a person to generate enough electricty from their body heat or movement to power many of the electronic devices they currently carry such as cellphones and iPods.
As always, I would encourage you to think more broadly about the implications of this advance. I have written previously about ”wearable clothing” and ”nano-fashion," but I would also encourage you to read this article describing some of the new advances being made in the gaming industry. According to the article, companies will soon employ the technology in order to allow video game warriors to feel the shots, slams and hits that their on-screen characters are taking.
It would be easy to think this technology will be limited to the video gaming industry, but it isn’t. This vest technology has immediate applications for the health care industry. For instance, a heart attack victim might be resuscitated via pressure applied by the vest. And if you jump the curve, some other uses become apparent. An elderly person with hearing loss might be able to wear a vest that could allow her to “feel” when someone is ringing her doorbell or calling her phone; a truck driver could use a vest to help stay awake; and soldiers and policemen could wear a special vest that would apply pressure to a wound in the event they were shot in the line of duty.
The convergence of sensors and electronics into clothing are going to do more than just revolutionize the clothing industry, they are going to revolutionize a number of other industries as well. To profit from this sea change, it will be necessary to jump the curve.
If you are interested in seeing one possible vision of the future, check out this clip below:
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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A Second Opinion: Robots & Exponential Evolution
Earlier today I wrote a post explaining why the robotic industry might evolve slower than people expect. I still stand by my argument, but as I stress in my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, to survive in the future one of the skills the exponential executive will need to possess is the ability to “hold two diametrically opposed ideas in his or her head at the same time.” In keeping with the spirit of this idea then I would like to encourage you to watch this short, six-minute video that shows how some robots are self-evolving. Only unlike humans, these bots are evolving at an exponential rate.
Some people have speculated that robots might be able to build houses in less than a day in the not-too-distant future. After you watch this video of a “self-assembling” robots, I’d encourage you to jump the curve 10 or 15 years into the future and imagine what might be possible.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Robot’s Friendly-Fire Problem
I am a big fan of robots and believe they have the potential to revolutionize a variety of industries, including health care, manufacturing and, most of all, defense. I have written extensively on the Defense Department’s plans to begin utilizing robots on the battlefield, and last year The Guardian reported that the U.S. military hopes to have one-third of the U.S.’ fighting forces consist of robots by 2015.
I absolutely believe this is possible, but I am not entirely sure it will happen. My biggest fear is that the industry will likely face a rising number of lawsuits in the year’s ahead. Earlier today, Wired reported that due to a hardware or software problem, a robotic gun killed 9 soldiers and wounded another 14 in South Africa. Companies such as iRobot, Foster-Miller, Samsung and Boston Dynamics are all developing similar gun-toting robots, and while it is unfair to lump them in with this tragedy, it is also reasonable to expect that as robots become more prevalent in the future that similar problems will arise.
It goes without saying that if the company responsible for building the robot is found liable they should be held accountable. Beyond that, however, I would encourage readers when contemplating the future and trying to ”jump the curve” that they also always consider the factors that might slow down an emerging technology’s acceptance into society. This case offers a wonderful example and it should also serve as a cautionary note to people—including myself—who are bullish on robotics ability to transform certain industries. Just because they can, doesn’t mean that they will—especially if lawyers can sue robotic companies into bankruptcy for “friendly-fire"-related problems.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Are Your Ready for Warp Speed?
It would be easy to dismiss the idea that we will have computers a thousand times faster than anything currently on the market within just a few years, but as I stress in my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, I think that would be a big mistake. Yesterday, Physorg.com reported on a new patent-pending technology called ”Warp processing.”
The technology works by reassigning various computer processing functions to a different kind of chip called a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) which can execute some—but not all—functions significantly faster than a microprocessor. According to Frank Vahid, who has developed the technology, the FPGA can do things “10 times, 100 times, even 1,000 times faster.”
The task of the exponential executive is not to understand how this technology works, but rather to imagine what will soon be possible because of it. At a minimum, it is easy to imagine how the technolgy will allow for better graphics and faster performance, but I’d encourage people to ”jump the curve” and try to imagine radically different capabilities.
For example, this recent article described some of the new advances in wearable computing. In the future it will be possible for chips embedded in your clothing to perform diagnostic functions—so if your heart is beating too fast, your shirt will tell you to slow down; or if you aren’t sufficiently hydrated, it’ll tell you to fill up on water. Why a smart shirt could even tell you to correct your posture.
In the future, as result of this technology, we will also be able to use your cellphone for object recognition. Imagine being lost and simply using the camera on your cellphone to locate your position—not by GPS—but by identifying the building in front of you. Or if you’re in a museum and you’d like to know more about a particular painting just point and click and your phone will deliver a rash of relevant information pulled off the Web.
Longer term, due such advances, I believe your computer will even become more intuitive—rather than simply respond to our commands, the computer of the future will anticipate our needs. For instance, your cellphone might “know” you are standing in line at the airport and can thus take a certain phone call from an annoying business colleague.
These applications just stratch the surface of what will possible. My advise: keep a very open mind—the future is about to begin moving at warp speed.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Coming to a Media Wall Near You
The other day I wrote about Jeff Han’s innovative new “Media Wall” and I advised people to not get discouraged over the $100,000 price tag. This was because it is my opinion that due to the accelerating pace of technological change—especially in semiconductor and sensor technology—the price will drop precipitiously over the next few years.
Well, earlier today Microsoft unveiled a new multi-touch display that acts in much the same way as Han’s Media Wall. Only instead of setting you back a cool $100K, Microsoft researchers jury-rigged a laptop computer using off-the-shelf technology. To be sure, it is nowhere near as slick or professional as Han’s technology, but my guess is that these differences will fade over time. More importantly, I am confident that the price of this technology will drop sooner rather than later. If you “jump the curve” to 2009 the price might be around $5000, and by 2012 the technology may even come as a standard feature in a $1000 flexible laptop computer/display.
Of course, this is all the more reason to begin contemplating how this new, more inter-active media could transform the worlds of education, advertising and publishing.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Will We Be More or Less Secure in the Future?
It is easy to believe that as a result of scientific advances in the fields of biotechnology, nanotechnology and a host of other emerging technologies that the world of the future will be a far more dangerous place than it is today. These risks are, of course, very real and I don’t want to minimize them, but in order to effectively “jump the curve” assess what the future will look like in terms of security it is important to take a comprehensive view of all advances in technology.
To this end, I would like to bring to your attention two articles from today’s Internet. The first is a press release from the University of Arizona describing how a $2.2 million grant will help researchers at the university develop software that will help better predict the actions of paramilitary groups, terrorists and criminals. Essentially the technology is trying to predict the unpredictable by employing complex algorithms to recognize links and patterns in people’s actions and then discern connections that would probably elude even the best human intelligence analysts.
The second article comes compliments of the University of San Diego where researchers are developing a “common sense” algorithm to identify objects in photographs. One practical application would be using the system to detect a suitcase that has been left on a subway platform during rush hour or, perhaps, to detect a group of people wearing bulky or heavy clothing during a hot summer day. In short, the technology could help quickly find suspicious activity.
The combination of these two technologies when supplemented by advances in UAV’s and robotics, such as I discussed in this post, could quite possibility lead to a future where we are more—and not less—secure.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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The Future of the Airline Industry
Earlier this week, Freakonomics had an interesting post entitled ”What Will U.S. Air Travel Look Like in Ten Years.” The post had some helpful insights from industry experts such as Clifford Winston, Richard Branson and Josh Marks, but few of these insiders looked at the issue through the lens of emerging technologies.
Let me then offer my thoughts on how the industry will change in the decade ahead. For starters, advances in RFID technology will have greatly reduced—if not altogether—eliminated lost bags. Recall that last week, IBM announced it was partnering with Schiphiol Airport in Amsterdam to begin tracking baggage through that airport using RFID technology. By the end of 2009, IBM is hoping to trace all 70 million pieces of luggage that flow through the airport. Given the competitive nature of the airline industry and the high cost of lost baggage, I expect every major airport in the world to have implemented RFID technology by 2017.
Second, while it is impossible to predict how effective labor unions will be in protecting the jobs of thousands of TSA workers, I think there is an excellent chance that consumers will have a much shorter delay when entering the airport of 2017 due to new advances in molecular diagnostics, facial recognition technology, Iris identification and nanosensors. These technologies should allow a limited number of security personnel to efficiently and securely oversee the screening of the millions of passengers that pass through the airport each day by rapidly and accurately detecting the presense of any harmful weapon or dangerous chemical or biological contaminant.
Third, I expect airplanes to become even more crowded as the airlines use improved algorithms to actively sell empty seats to passengers. As America ages, many Baby Boomers will have extra time on their hand and the airlines, by knowing more about each customer (such as knowing that your Uncle Freddy likes to go to Las Vegas) will be able to entice him on short notice to catch the flight for $79.
Directly related to this trend is the fourth trend or what I call hyper-information. Websites such as Farecast are already doing a good job of telling consumers if they should buy a ticket to Paris today or wait until closer to Christmas in order to get a better deal, but as a result of expoential advances in information processing technology, data storage and algorithms these sites are only going to get better. More perfect information will lead to a more efficient allocation of resources and a continuation of razor thin margins for the industry. In short, look for more bankruptcies and mergers as the weak are herded out.
Trend #5: Biofuels will alleviate some of the price and environmental pressures the industry is facing over rising fuel costs. Look for companies such as Imperium Renewables and others to develop environmentally-friendly biofuels for jets. It is even possible that advances in synthetic biology will have lead to companies such as Synthetic Genomics driving the price of jet fuel down signficantly.
Trend #6: This one will still likely be small, but I expect that a number of planes will have only one pilot by 2017. Advances in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and drones—which will have risen exponentially in military use—will have begun to make their way into the commercial airline industry by this time. Airline companies looking to cut costs will realize that it no longer makes economic sense to have two or three pilots per plane.
Finally, a portion of the regional air traffic (e.g. trips less than 300 miles) will be siphoned off by advances being made in the field of flying cars such as I wrote about here. While the vision of being able to take-off straight from your house likely won’t be possible by 2017, I do believe a limited number of well-to-do consumers will be able to drive to smaller regional airports and fly their cars to other regional airports that are in close proximity to their final destination.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Think Like a Child: Jeff Han
In my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, one of the strategies I encourage people to adopt when trying to think about the future is to see the world as they did when they were children. The defining characteristic of that age was, of course, curosity. A perfect example of this is Jeff Han who drew inspiration from the way light diffuses when you touch a glass of water to create something called the “Media Wall.” If you have ever seen the movie The Minority Report you will have an idea of what I am talking about. But rather just imagine it, I’d encourage you to watch the video posted below because it gives us a glimpse into the future world of computing.
Beyond that, however, I would encourage you to ”jump the curve,” and imagine all the different ways this technology will be used in the future.
For instance, imagine brainstorming sessions where groups of people can work on the computer at the same time. Imagine how retailers and marketing professionals could use it to tailor advertisements to individual consumers, or how innovative educational professionals might use the technology to engage students. (For example, chemistry can be a pretty tough subject for the average student, but if a student could actually manipulate giant, simulated models of carbon and oxygen atoms they might gain a better understand how carbon dioxide is formed).
Naysayers will point out that the technology costs about $100,000 today and will argue the technology won’t be available to most teachers. This is true at the current time; but will this technology always be expensive? No. Who amongst us would have imagined that in 2007 most of us would now have more computering power in our $79 cellphone than a 1997 $100,000 supercomputer? Such is the power of Moore’s Law -- and “Media Wall’s” will only become cheaper in the future. (For the time being, though, if you interested in seeing Neiman Marcus’ video advertising the $100K Media Wall just click here. It’s pretty cool.)
My point is that this technology will be coming to stores, schools, businesses and hospitals in your neighborhood sooner rather than later. Therefore, the time to begin thinking about how you and your organization might implement and utilize this technology is now.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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What’s on Microsoft’s Mind
New Scientist is reporting that Microsoft has filed a patent on some innovative new mind reading technology. The technology centers on using electroencephalograms (EEGs) to record electrical signals within the brain.
The company claims it is merely seeking a method for interpreting the EEG data in order to better understand what consumers are actually thinking when they are using its various interfaces. Such a technology, for instance, would be helpful in determining whether a consumer really understands how to use Microsoft’s latest software—an area, I would argue, that it needs a great amount of help. (Microsoft officials explain that this is improvement over simply asking a person because people are often reluctant to admit that they don’t understand how something works. An EEG, on the other hand, can simply determine that they are confused by their level of brain activity).
In short, the company hopes to use the technology to design user interfaces that people find easier to use. I suspect that there is a good deal truth to this application and it is a good example of what I call in my forthcoming book “walking the escalator,” but I also think Microsoft is interested in figuring out how to apply brain technology to create the next generation of video games. Recall that late last year Sony also filed a patent for similar technology for the express purpose of incorporating brain technology into video games.
Longer-term, I also think that Microsoft is interested in combining EEG technology with robotic technology. Bill Gates has made no secret that he has robotics on his mind, and the idea of using EEG technology to control household robots like iRobot’s Roomba has great potential. For example, as America’s population continues to age just think of how many elderly people might benefit from a household robot that they could command by thought alone?
The idea might sound far-fetched, but I’d encourage people interested in ”jumping the curve” to give this idea some thought because in addition to triggering a flurry of electrical signals in your brain it could also trigger some ideas about how the technology could impact your business down the road.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Learning to Unlearn: Case Study #1
In my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, I dedicate an entire chapter to the topic of “unlearning.” It is my contention that the pace of technological change is occuring so fast that not only it is essential people learn new skills, they must also dedicate an equal amount of time to unlearning old skills and old ways of seeing the world.
To this end, Hitachi is reporting today that it expects to quadruple the data storage capabilities of desktop computers to 4 terabytes by 2011. For those of you counting at home, this means that you’ll be able to store roughly 1 million books, 250 hours of high definition video or 250,000 songs on your iPod by the time the next president is finishing his or her first term in office.
I would encourage readers, however, not to simply think of data storage in terms of what it can do to today’s existing technology. The more serious implications will play out in terms of how it impacts media, the arts and education. The Freakonomics Blog has a great post on this topic today. In essense, it details the experience of a researcher who tried to explain in an article back in 1993 how digital storage technology would disrupt the music industry in the not-too-distant future. Interestingly, the Harvard Business Review rejected his article because they thought it was “nonsense.” As history has demonstrated, of course, it was not nonsense and the only people who looked foolish are the editors at HBR because they couldn’t ”jump the curve” and envision a different future.
These editors are not alone. They join a very diverse group, including Lord Kelvin who famously predicted in 1899 that “heavier than air flying machines are immpossible,” as well as the legions of medical professionals who laughed Barry Marshall off the stage in 1984 for having the audacity to suggest that ulcers were caused by bacteria. They did this because they “knew” ulcers were caused by stress and eating too much spicy food. (Marshall had the last laugh. He won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2005 for his breakthrough discovery.)
My point is that when thinking about the future it is vital to keep a very open mind. It is also helpful to be a little humble because, if you’re not, you can end up looking pretty foolish. For other examples of individuals incapable of thinking exponentially, I’d encourage you to read this recent post.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Nanotrend #2: Fresher Food
Last week, Azonano.com had an innocous-sounding article posted on its website entitled ”Frying Oil Stays Fresh Longer Through Nanotechnology.” A cursory review of the article finds that this seemingly mundane advance could end up having a very big impact on the restaurant industry.
Here’s why. The company which was developed the technology, OilFresh, has created an advanced nanoceramic material that acts as a powerful catalytic anti-oxidant device. Among other things, this material allows for a shorter frying time (and thus saves on energy usage); the quality of the oil stay stays fresher longer (meaning restaurants can maintain the quality of, say, their french fries over a longer period of time); and the technology is easy to use and maintain. As an added benefit the technology even allows restaurants to switch to a healthier vegetable oil.
In short, the $299 system saves money; improves quality; and is better for the customer. That’s a win-win-win situation and it is a perfect example of what I call in my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, “walking the escalator”—or the idea of using a current technology to improve an existing process.
The advance is also a signal that a second emerging trend in nanotechnology will be its impending impact on the food industry. Last year, Cientifica, a British market research specializing in nanotechnology, reported that commercial uses of nanotechnology now add up to a $410 million sliver of the $3 trillion global food market, and it forecasts that this figure will grow to $5.8 billion by 2012.
To the untrained eye, $5.8 billion out of $3 trillion represents less 2% of the overall market. However, if you understand exponential growth you also know how fast that 2% can grow ...2/4/8/16/32/64! For this reason food is my nanotrend #2.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Nano All Around Us
The Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center has recently updated its inventory of all the consumer products that incorporate nanotechnology . What is noteworthy about the new list is how quickly it has grown. In March 2006 the inventory included only 220 products; today it contains 580 products.
Many of these products will be familiar to Jump the Curve readers and include commonly cited applications of nanotechnology in clothing, golf balls and sunscreens. A closer review, however, reveals some surprising new additions.
Apollo Diamond’s ”cultured" diamonds are now on the list and this is bad news for large diamond companies because these diamonds are molecularly identical to diamonds harvested from the earth, but they are less expensive to produce and are manufactured in a more environmentally sustainable manner. As I explained earlier this year, these advances in nanotechnology beg the question of how long natural diamonds will remain a girl’s best friend.
Other new additions include Starkey Laboratories’ hearing aid’s which contain custom-designed ultra-miniature spintronic sensors, and Black & Deckers’ DeWalt cordless power-tool set which utilizes phosphate nanocrystals to improve its batteries.
The automotive industry is also rapidly embracing nanotechnology. General Motors is employing nanomaterials to develop stronger and lighter body parts, and Daimler-Chrysler is using nanoparticles to create scratch-resistant exterior paints on certain Mercedes-Benz models.
A variety of other companies, including Motorola; DuPont, Sony and Universal Display are even incorporating carbon nanotubes to create more efficient organic light-emitting diodes for a variety of consumer electronics.
All of this new activity suggests that nanotechnology’s already rapidly growing numbers will only grow larger in the years ahead. To profit from these trends, the Exponential Executive not only needs to monitor how and where nanotechnology is being used today, he or she must also think through how it will be employed tomorrow because soon nanotechnology will not only be here and there—it will be everywhere.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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An Eye—and a Brain—in the Sky
Lockheed Martin recently received a $4.9 million award to develop an object recognition system that employs brain-inspired technologies. Appropriately dubbed ORBIT (Object Recognition via Brain-Inspired Technology), the system is based on a model of the brain’s neocortex and seeks to mimic human’s extraordinary skill at recognizing patterns and objects.
Although the project is small in nature, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) believes it has great potential and could speed an intelligence analyst’s ability to do his or her job by 100-fold.
For instance, whereas today it is estimated take defense analysts over 1000 hours to sufficiently review a square kilometer—say a small patch of Afghanistan landscape looking for clues of a Taliban hide-out—ORBIT could do the same job in about ten hours.
I would encourage executives to think more broadly about the technology’s applications just simply military intelligence. For example, Google has done an extraordinary job of bringing satellite images to millions of people, but imagine what the company might be able to do when it upgrades Google Earth to allow people and businesses to visually search the world for physical objects.
I also see the manufacturers of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) such as AeroVironment and Northrop Grumman employing the technology to make their drones even more capable. In wartime, the combination of UAVs and ORBIT could allow the Air Force to rapidly identify and destroy enemy combatants, and in the field of border security the technology might allow border officials to more quickly and accurately identify illegal aliens trying to entry the country.
I am sure there are a host of other applications as well, but this brain-inspired technology should give the Exponential Executive plenty to think about.
In the meantime, I am just looking forward to the day when ORBIT will allow me to find my lost keys using Google.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Examples of Unexponential Thinking
The purpose of new book, Jump the Curve, is to encourage people to think differently about the future and, as such, I spend a great deal of time offering examples of how I believe the future will be radically different than many people think. Often I use positive examples of individuals who are capable of “exponential thinking” such as Randy Pausch.
There is, of course, an alternative approach and that is to castigate individuals who I believe are guilty of “unexponential thinking.” Let me offer just two examples from today’s news.
The first comes from an article in MIT’s Technology Review entitled ”A Cell Phone That Spots Bad Breath.” It is a wonderful atricle and it explains how cellphone companies are actively exploring the idea of using phones to help people check their breath by incorporating a “halitosis meter” into the phone. To me, the idea makes perfect sense because I understand how exponential advances in sensor technology make this possible; but to Pat Lenton, a research fellow at the University of Minnesota, the idea is ludricous because—and I qoute—“this notion that this little cell phone could do the work of very elaborate equipment is just highly unlikely.” Oh really? I wonder if it ever occurred to Mr. Lenton that yesterday’s multi-million dollar computers, data storage devices and video cameras are now regularly placed inside cellphones?
Yet another example comes compliments of a second professor who has questioned the ability of social networking software to influence political campaigns. This piece explains how Eventful, a grassroots website that allows people to send market signals to politicians, musicians and others that there is market for their presense or services in their home area. The site is now catching on with the political class. To David Dulio, however, the suggestion that just because 1,800 people attended a rally for John Edwards which was organized with the software is hardly proof of a meaningful technology. As he points out, there are 120 million voters in America and 1,800 isn’t even a drop in the bucket. Perhaps Mr. Dulio is correct, but I would argue that in 2001 Wikipedia had only 100 entries and today it has over 6 million and counting. Could Eventful experience the same type of growth? Absolutely and if it does, Mr. Dulio could be in for a surprise because of his inability to think exponentially.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Could You Really Love a Robot?
Throughout my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, I spend a good deal of time documenting the exponential advances occuring in the field of robotics, and toward the end of the book I advise my readers to keep a very open mind about what the future might hold in store. I must admit, however, that sometimes even I have a hard time following my own advice.
For example, earlier this month I described new research explaining how some people are becoming emotionally attached to their robots and I outlined why I thought this was a positive trend for the field of robotics. The article came on the heels of a similar article by a colleague of mine at the Motley Fool (where I am a frequent contributor) had a tongue-in-cheek piece entitled ”I Married iRobot.”
Well, it now appears that Rick may have been only slightly ahead of the curve in his prediction because I just came across this article highlighting how the University of Maastricht in the Netherlands has awarded a doctorate to a researcher who has written his thesis on the possibility of marriages between humans and robots.
Personally, I am very queasy about “Intimate Relations with Artificial Partners” (which is the official title of the researcher’s thesis), but I am quite comfortable with robots intruding on other less personal aspects of our lives.
For instance, I am a huge fan of Intuitive Surgical’s Da Vinci surgical robots and their ability to extend people’s lives by performing an increasing number of complicated surgeries. I also think Toyota’s work in developing robots to improve the quality of life for the world’s rapidly aging population as well as Oshkosh Truck’s progress in creating self-driving robotic vehicles both hold immense potential.
I guess what I am really saying is that while I love the field of robots, I am not ready to literally fall in love with robots; and I don’t think the rest of society is either. But if I’m wrong and people do start marrying robots, I wonder if it would be appropriate to give a robotic vacuum cleaner as wedding gift to a pair of human-robot newlyweds?
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Embracing Change
This past week I had an opportunity to give a presentation at the Annual State Manager’s conference in St. Paul. The title of my talk was “Leading in an era of exponential change,” and the gist of it was that exponential advances in a variety of technologies, including computers, data storage, biotechnology and nanotechnology, will require state leaders to embrace radically different ways of doing the people’s business in the near future.
Afterwards, I stayed and listened to Governor Tim Pawlenty’s keynote speech. He emphasized many of the same themes I did and toward the end of his talk he asked state managers to envision just one scenario of how technology might reform state government.
Pawlenty began by explaining how thousands of DUI arrests are clogging our criminal justice system. And while he was careful to stress that serious and repeat offenders need to be dealt with individually, he argued that the vast majority of offenders are first-timers, whose blood alcohol average was not far above the minimum threshold, and they were respectful to law enforcement officials during their arrest.
The system, Pawlenty continued, now routinely prescribes such offenders with a uniform sentence that requires they serve a few days in a workhouse facility, undergo chemical evaluation, and pay a specified fine. In spite of this cookie-cutter approach, however, the current system still demands thousands of lawyers, judges, and police officers to spend countless adjudicating the penalty.
Pawlenty then asked his audience to envision a future where those offenders who meet certain criteria (first-time offense, low blood alcohol level, etc.) would instead have a computer met out their punishment; pay their fine over a computer; and have their attendance at the chemical evaluation and workhouse facilities confirmed via the Internet.
It is a different way of doing business, but Pawlenty is absolutely right to urge state officials to search for new and innovative ways of doing business—methods that might allow lawyers, judges and law enforcement officials to focus their considerable talents on more productive applications of the law and, in the process, save taxpayer money.
The governor went on to say that not all state functions could be improved by technology and he highlighted the state prison system as one example. But even here, I would argue, technological advances can play a role.
Earlier this year, the Defense Department approved robots to be equipped with guns to monitor and patrol dangerous areas in Afghanistan and Iraq. The robots must still be authorized by a human before they can fire (and they only fire stun-guns and not real bullets), but would it not be possible to augment the security of some state prisons with a similar technology?
Another area ripe for the application of new technologies is the inspection of bridges. Last month, Wisconsin announced it intended to install sensors to monitor the structural integrity of 14 bridges across their state. At the present time, Minnesota has refused to adopt even a single pilot project and is instead relying solely on inspectors.
My point is not to suggest that all bridge inspectors or prison guards should or even can be displaced by robots and sensors, but technology does offer the possibility of doing more with less in some cases.
Consider video games, for instance. It is often said that such games are for young people and historically this has been true. But within the past year, Nintendo has caught the entire video gaming world flat-footed by introducing Wii. What makes Wii so unique is that its ease of use is allowing non-gamers and even senior citizens to enjoy video games for the first time.
In fact, the technology is so intuitive that scores of nursing homes around the country are using the game to engage elderly people in physical activities such as Wii-bowling and Wii-tennis.
What officials at these aging facilities are discovering is that many of their clients are now happier, healthier and more social as a result of this new video game. Moreover, it is freeing up nurses and doctors to better serve those most in need. If the technology were adopted in state-supported facilities, it might also save some money.
Again, my point is not to advocate that we can turn the world over to computers, robots, sensors and virtual reality toys, but these and other emerging technology—such as language translational software that might improve communication with Minnesota’s increasingly diverse population and help them better access state services—can play a vital role in serving the citizens of this state.
To do so, however, we must first be open to the idea that there are different ways of doing the people’s business.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Nanotrend #1: Smart Clothes
A few weeks back, I discussed how nano-fabrics would be big business, I still stand-by that assessment and, in fact, I am even more confident after reading this article which discusses how researchers at the U.S. Army Natick Soldier Research Development and Engineering Center are exploring how to employ nanotechnology to make multifunctional uniforms.
The advances that the center is investigating go well beyond what companies such as Nano-Tex are doing to make pants and shirts stain-resistant. Specifically, the Army is interested in incorporating batteries and sensors directly into soldier’s uniforms. Today, it has been estimated that the average soldier carries about 30-pounds of batteries into battle, and these batteries do everything from power night-vision googles, laser-range finders, advanced radios and networked computers. Obviously, it is important that these devices don’t run out of juice during the heat of the battle.
By directly incorporating nanomaterials into polymers and fabrics, the Army is hoping to either capture the photons from the sun to help keep the batteries powered longer or, alternatively, use the thermal heat generated from a soldier’s body to augment a battery’s longeveity.
The technology is still a ways off, but the Natick facility is reportedly close to testing some of these technologies out in the field. I would encourage executives in the clothing, textile and retail industries to keep abreast of these advances because in the near future I see people powering their iPods, laptops, cellphones and other electronic devices not just from the batteries in those devices but from the batteries in their clothing. It might sound odd today, but if you ”jump the curve” I think you’ll agree that it is almost destine to happen—just think after going for a long run with your Nike+iPod system that your device will come back with even more power than when you left!
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Do the Impossible: A Case Study
In my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, I discuss how the exponential advances in technology will allow people to do things in the future that are seemingly impossible today. As I stressed in my talk to the New Jersey Science Convention the other night, one of the most important lessons we can teach our kids is that nothing is impossible.
To this end, I recently came across the story of Mary Masterman who won the 2007 Intel Science Talent Search (and $100,000) for building a spectrograph system—a device used to identify the different characteristics of molecules—all by herself. Now, what is really impressive is that Masterman pulled off this feat for about $300. It is useful to know that the average cost of a commercial spectrograph system is anywhere between $20,000 and $100,000.
Her advice for other students wishing to accomplish similar feats was simple: “Even if you think what you want to do is impossible, go ahead and go for it because you never know what you can accomplish.” It’s great advice and, while it has always been true, it’ll be even more relevant in the Exponential Economy.
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Get Kids to Dream Again
Last evening I was in Somerset, New Jersey to give the keynote presentation at the 31st Annual New Jersey Science Convention. The name of my talk was “The Exponential Educator: How Eight Emerging Technologies Will Transform Education.” One major underlying theme of the presentation was that because of exponential advances in technology, the future is going to be host to some very exciting inventions; and by openingly discussing many of these exciting possibilities with kids, teachers can get kids interested in science once again.
To this end, I think one such possibility is a flying car and today’s MIT Technology Review has an informative article discussing the advances that a small start-up company, Terrafugia, is making. One of the big question marks surrounding the flying car’s development is concern over whether it will be able to keep its weight low enough. It is a major problem to be sure, but as a result of advances in lighter, stronger nanomaterials and smaller and longer lasting batteries many of these concerns will be overcome sooner rather than later. In fact, Terrafugia expects to have a prototype developed by 2008; another company, LaBiche, plans on having a flying car operational by 2009; and, SkyCar, which has been existence since the 1960’s is also closing in on the goal.
These prototypes may not work perfectly and they may not be immediate commercial successes, but their time is coming. Exponential advances in many of the flying car’s enabling technologies—better nanomaterials, more effective sensors, smarter software, etc.—are all getting better, and I am convinced that it is not a matter of if flying cars will become a reality but when! And, of course, we will all get to this future sooner if we can get kids excited about science and technology again.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Einstein, Intel and All the Rice in China
Someone once asked Albert Einstein what he considered mankind’s most powerful discovery. Without hesitation he replied, “Compound interest.” The world’s numerati have long been fascinated by the awesome power of geometrical growth, and to prosper in the economy of the future, or what I call the exponential economy, today’s leaders must go beyond simple fascination and embrace the extraordinary possibilities that exponential growth portends.
The distinction between linear growth and exponential growth is not merely a matter of degrees. It can literally be the difference between life and death, as the following story demonstrates.
According to legend, the emperor of China, after being presented with the game of chess, was so impressed with it that he offered the inventor--a seemingly humble man--a gift of his choosing. The inventor made a request that on the face of it seemed innocent enough. He requested that he be granted a single grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard, two on the second, four on the third, and so on until all the board’s squares were accounted for. The emperor glanced at the board, noted it had only sixty-four squares, and readily granted the man his request.
The story abruptly ends with the emperor severing the inventor’s head after only the thirty-second square. This is because, although only halfway through the deal, the emperor was already committed to providing the inventor the equivalent of forty acres worth of rice. Had he lived up to the terms of the agreement, the emperor would have been put in the untenable position of having to supply 18 million trillion grains of rice. To appreciate this predicament it helps to understand that it would take an area approximately twice the size of the earth, including all of the oceans, to produce that much rice.
You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet!
Like most fables, the story holds a powerful and valuable lesson and it is one that is especially relevant today: If you think change is happening fast today, you haven’t seen anything yet. Consider just the first of many such real-world equivalents of exponential growth: computer transistors. For the past forty years the number of transistors that could be placed on a computer chip has doubled every eighteen to twenty-four months. This development is widely known as Moore’s law and is named in honor of Gordon Moore, the former CEO of Intel, who in 1965 accurately predicted this progression.
For years so-called experts have been predicting the imminent demise of Moore’s law. Undeterred by such prophecies, talented engineers and technology geeks have ignored their warnings, and in 2007 Intel Corporation and others achieved the twenty-ninth iteration of this doubling. In so doing they successfully squeezed mreo than 500 million transistors onto a single chip. This astonishing achievement has dropped the cost of one megahertz of computer processing power from $7,000 in 1970 to just fractions of a penny today.
According to the semiconductor industry, there is still clear sailing for Moore’s law for at least the next ten years. This means, among other things, that by 2018 computers will become a minimum of thirty-two times more powerful than those existing today.
Using the earlier analogy of the chessboard, with regard to the modern transistor era of computers we have not even approached the halfway point in the doubling game. To put it another way, this means that society is but a fraction of the way into the computer revolution. The really big changes are still before us.
The time to begin contemplating what computers thirty-two times more powerful will mean for your business is now. To do this you will need to learn to ”jump the curve.”
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Top Ten Tech Trends
The editors at The Futurist have recently released their top ten forecasts for the future. I don’t agree with everything on the list, but the forecast is thought-provoking and I’d encourage interested readers to give it the once-over because the first prediction is this dozy: “The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025.”
Now, a million dollars in the future won’t hold the same cache as million dollars today due to inflation, but I’d argue that if you want to be a member of the millionaire’s club of 2025 it would behoove you to understand some of today’s trends in technology because they have the potential to either help or hinder your path to future prosperity.
With that short introduction then, I’d like to provide my personal list of top ten technology trends:
#1: Nanotechnology. I have previously expressed my opinion why I believe nanotechnology will represent a $2.6 trillion market in new products and services by 2015, but a quick review of the impressive progress many nanotech companies such as IBM, H-P, Intel, GE, Arrowhead Research and Nucryst are making due to nanotechnology offers compelling evidence that the field is ripe for explosive growth.
#2 Robotics. No less an authority that Bill Gates has indicated that the robotics will be the basis of a $50 billion industry by 2025. Add to this prediction reports that the Defense Department wants to have at least one-third of all military trucks being driven by robots by 2015 and it is clear why companies as diverse as Toyota, Oshkosh Trucks and John Deere are all investing heavily in robotics.
#3 Rapid Prototype Manufacturing. In the coming years, 3D Systems, Stratasys, Z Corporation and Desktop Factory are all hoping to radically lower the price of rapid prototype manufacturing equipment. If they are successful, it is possible that such 3-D printers—which can print out physical objects such as cups, plates and assorted spare parts—could become a household appliance as common as the dishwasher. If you’re interested in reading more about this topic, I’d encourage you to check out this past post entitled: ”3-D Printing: The Shape of Things to Come.”
#4: Synthetic Biology: Over the weekend, The Guardian newspaper reported that Craig Venter, the former co-founder of Celera, could be announcing the creation of the first new artificial life form on Earth as early as this week. It is, to be sure, a development fraught with a host of societal and ethical issues, but as BP’s foray into the area suggests, it could also revolutionize the energy industry by allowing for new bacteria to be designed that can cheaply and efficiently convert agricultural products into environmentally-friendly biofuels.
#5 Cleantech: Rising oil prices, increased demand from China, and heightened concerns over global climate change are already driving up demand for renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and new biofuels. According to Cleantech Ventures Network, wind is expected to triple from $17 billion today to $60 billion in 2016; solar from $15 billion to $70 billion; and biofuels from $20 billion to $80 billion. Companies such as the China-based solar manufacturer, Suntech Power, are well-positioned to benefit from this convergence of macro-economic trends. It is just one of the reason why I think cleantech could be the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century.
#6 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID). This over-hyped technology was supposed to begin revolutionizing the world back in 2003; but, for a number of reasons, it has been slow to catch on. Last week, however, IBM announced that it would be working to implement RFID technology at Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam with the goal of being able to track 70 million pieces of luggage annually through the airport by 2018. This deal comes on the heels of news that Microsoft is also gearing up to be competitive in the RFID field, and stories of how the technology saved Dole Food’s bacon during a recent E Coli scare.
#7 Personalized Medicine. As impressive as many of today’s health care treatments are, they can still be pretty crude. For instance, many of today’s best known drugs don’t work on a select percentage of the population due to genetic factors. As a result of advances in genome sequencing, however, researchers and doctors are beginning to better understand how individuals will respond to certain drugs. If companies such as Life Science 454 and Illumina succeed in driving the cost of sequencing a person’s genome from today’s cost of $3 million to below $10,000 (which is their stated goal), personalized medicine will dramatically alter the entire healthcare sector.
#8 Algorithms. The world is now awash in data, but there is still a great deal more information that can be extracted from all of this data. To unlock these hidden nuggets, a number of companies such as Best Buy and Blockbuster are applying sophisticated algorithms to do everything from determining the odds that you will make a claim on your warranty to the possibility that you will return your next movie late. These algorithms will only get better with time.
#9 Neurotechnology. The human brain is an unbelievably complex instrument and, in spite of extraordinary progress over the past decade, there is still much we don’t know about it. Researchers are now employing fMRI equipment to study how people’s brains operate as they make complex decisions. What they are finding is that often different parts of the brain are used to make different decisions. As the technology improves improve for major retailer such as McDonald’s to fine tune their advertising messages for maximum impact.
#10 Web 2.0. The term Web 2.0 is by now a well-worn cliche, but there is good reason to believe that as computer chips, sensors and RFID tags continue to get better, smaller and cheaper these devices will be placed inside a variety of household items and throughout the external environment to store, collect and communicate information in new ways. Even more impressive will be how companies such as Google and Nokia will manage all of this information to make our lives easier. As I said in this earlier post, I think the more apt term is ”Web 2.D’Oh.”
As Yogi Berra once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” He’s right. Due to the accelerating pace of technological change it is likely that I and others will be blind-sided by technologies that haven’t even been imagined yet. Nevertheless, fear of the unknown is not a sufficient reason for inaction. I’m confident that all of the aforementioned technologies represent legitimate opportunities and if executives and managers hope to be in business tomorrow then they must track the advances occuring in these fields today.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Web 2.D’Oh!
Having grown up in the Midwest, I had no occasion to give earthquakes much thought. As a result of this unfamiliarity, I assumed for years that an earthquake registering 8.1 on the Richter scale was about 10% more severe than one registering 7.1 and 20% more violent than a 6.1 earthquake.
Wrong.
For reasons unknown to me, Richter decided it was more appropriate to classify earthquakes on a logarithmic scale. Imagine my surprise then when I learned that this implied that an earthquake registering 8.1 on the Richter was 50 times more powerful than a 7.1 earthquake and 2,500 times more powerful than a 6.1 earthquake.
I provide this brief tutorial in logarithmic functions because it is a useful metaphor in considering how exponential advances in a number of technologies will shake the world of business as the Internet transitions from Web 1.0 to Web 2.0 and, eventually, Web 3.0.
In spite of the Internet bubble, few people would say that the Internet hasn’t changed business, society, and many of our lives in meaningful ways. But as unsettling as this may (or may not) have been, it has so far been the equivalent of a technological tremor--it has gotten people’s attention, but a good number of businesses have gone about their daily routines with only minor modifications.
The transition to the next stage, or what is sometimes referred to as Web 2.0 or the semantic Web, will be as different as a 7.0 earthquake is from a 6.0 earthquake. Or as Homer Simpson would say, “D’Oh!”
The next iteration of the World Wide Web will be about relating relevant information to and from real-world objects, and employing intelligent software agents to help users find, store, and combine information in more meaningful ways. The difference can be explained thusly: Today we find information via Google and other websites. At the next level, information will find us.
Wireless, radio frequency identification (RFID) tags, next-generation photonic computer chips, data storage, networks of smart sensors and super-smart algorithms are all pushing this vision of “the Internet of things” toward reality at an accelerating pace.
Consider the following examples. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) wants Wi-Fi to be capable of transmitting at least 100 megabits of information per second; but some companies, such as NTT DoCoMo, are already looking at rates in the neighborhood of 2.5 gigabits per second--which is fast enough to deliver a DVD in seconds.
Alas, receiving Tom Cruise’s latest film via the Internet is only the beginning because IBM has already demonstrated an optical chipsets capable of data transmission rates of 160 gigabits per second. For those of you counting at home, this is a staggering 1600-fold improvement over today’s technology.
Of course, this is just one technology. Today, Intel and others are cramming 800 million transistors onto a single chip. The semiconductor industry expects to continue to double this number every 24 months for at least the next decade. If you are wondering what a 32-fold improvement in computer processing will mean, it has been estimated that at this level a single computer chip will approach the computing capacity of the human brain.
Alas, these chips won’t just be reserved for our laptops and cellphones. The development of RFID tags suggests that soon they and computer chips will be embedded directly into a host of everyday objects, including consumer products, household appliances and automobiles.
Combine this development with both the aforementioned progress in wireless technology and exponential advances in data storage and algorithms--software programs designed to make sense of the reams of data that the RFID tags and computer chips will be collecting and then find patterns and discern insights from that information--and this implies we will be connected to our surrounding environments in almost unimaginable ways.
Jack Welch, the former CEO of General Electric, once said, “When the rate of change outside the company is faster than the rate of change inside the company, the end is near.” Well, an exponential earthquake is rapidly approaching and to survive every business must first recognize that it is now living near the equivalent of the San Andreas Fault, and then begin shoring up the foundations of its operations to withstand the destructive force of these accelerating technologies.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Build It With Nano-Steel
Researchers at the University of Michigan have created a new composite plastic that it as strong as steel but which is significantly lighter. As an added benefit, it is also transparent. I won’t bore you with the details of how this new nano-plastic is created (although if you’re interested I’d encourage you to read this piece), but, as I stress in my book, Jump the Curve, executives and managers in a variety of different industries need to familiarize themselves with such advances in the field of material science because they offer ample opportunities to improve existing products as well as develop entirely new ones.
For instance, in the medical profession, a great many hip, knee and joint replacements today use expensive titanium as the material of choice. This new nano-plastic could offer patients lighter alternative which might also be more biocompatible and, thus, less susceptible to infections and scaring. Similarly, executives in the automobile industry could utilize the material to construct cars which are lighter, safer and more fuel efficient; while architects might be able to ”jump the curve” and design new buildings with amazing new properties by tapping into the transparency and strength characteristics of this new nano-plastic.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Do You Believe in the Tooth Fairy?
Although my new book, Jump the Curve, won’t be officially released until February of 2008, I have been asked on a number of occasions to describe what I mean by the term “jump the curve.”
It is a fair question and when answering it I like to recall the words of that old sage Albert Einstein who once said that if a person—especially a scientist or technologist—couldn’t explain what he or she was working to an 8-year old child in a way that that child could understand, then the person was either a fraud or a charlatan.
It’s an excellent test and because I have both an 8 year-old daughter and a 6 year-old son, I decided to put the topic of my next book to this test. Liking a challenge, I decided to see if my youngest child could comprehend this idea of “jumping the curve.”
Without using an example in the book, I asked my son, who has yet to lose any of his teeth, whether he would rather receive a single dollar for every one of his 20 baby teeth or prefer instead to receive a single cent for his first tooth and then have that penny double for the next 19 teeth?
Being fairly good at numbers and knowing that his dad often likes to trick him, he selected the second option—the penny doubling.
“Smart boy,” I proudly said. “Now, what if the tooth fairy gave you $5 per tooth?” (I was careful to suggest that I was not implying that the tooth fairy would leave him $5.) He pondered his options for a moment and, after calculating his total would come to $100, selected the $5 option.
I asked him if he was sure and he confidently shook his head in the affirmative. “Well, son,” I replied, “I’m afraid that you have lost out on over $10,000.”
The look on his face was one of incredulousness, and that is precisely why I told him that he had to learn to “jump the curve.” Here’s how the chart looks:
1st tooth: 1 cent
2nd tooth: 2 cents
3rd tooth: 4 cents
4th tooth: 8 cents
5th tooth: 16 cents
6th tooth: 32 cents
7th tooth: 64 cents
8th tooth: $1.28
9th tooth: $2.56
10th tooth: $5.12
11th tooth: $10.24
12th tooth: $20.48
13th tooth: $40.96
14th tooth: $81.92
15th tooth: $163.84
16th tooth: $327.68
17th tooth: $655.36
18th tooth: $1310.72
19th tooth: $2621.44
20th tooth: $5242.88
Total: $10,485.75 ... or more than $500 per tooth!
To explain the concept of “jumping the curve,” I then drew him the graph below and said that before a person can profit from any exponential trend he must first understand that trend. More important, however, he must understand where that trend is headed because a person can only jump the curve by seeing where it ultimately takes you. The skill I continued “could be as significant as the difference between getting only $5 for a tooth or receiving $500.”
My broader point, of course, was to encourage him to keep a very open mind about his future because exponential advances are occuring in a variety of fields, including information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, robotics, brain scanning and even knowledge itself, and if one charts where these trends are headed they could take us places that not even the tooth fairy could dream of going.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Remember Sputnik
Today is the 50th anniversary of the Sputnik satellite being launched into space by the Soviet Union. Among the many other things this event did was that it effectively started the “space race” and ignited the imaginations of people all around the world about the exciting possibilities of satellite surveillance and satellite communications. Without such an impetus it is possible that applications such as Google Earth would not be here today.
I mention this anniversary because it is important to understand that today’s accelerating pace of technological change implies, among other things, that society will likely experience the equivalent of 50 years of progress (at the old 20th century rate of change) in the next 10 to 15 years. And everywhere I look today—in the fields of nanotechnology, robotics, synthetic biology, information technology and the cognitive sciences—I see the modern day equivalent of the Sputnik launch.
For example, in this piece which I wrote for MSNBC last month entitled ”Nanotech is in the Genes,” I discussed how advances in nanotechnology are enabling diagnostic technologies that will effectively utilize genetic information to better treat people’s illinesess. In the process, it will revolutionize health care. In the field of robotics, Oshkosh Truck Company has just launched a hulking new robotic truck, dubbed TerraMax, that drives itself. And in synthetic biology, Craig Venter and others are increasingly confident that within the next few years they will have successfully created artificial life forms that could transform the energy sector.
My point is that is important to understand that just as Sputnik led to advances in communications and, in the process, the creation of entirely new industries; today’s technological advances are going to do the same thing—only they will do so in a timeframe that is exponentially faster than what we have experienced in the past half century.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of business, industry and non-profit organizations and associations.
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The Doctor Will See Your Avatar Now
Earlier this year I wrote a piece entitled Big Blue Will See You Now. In it I discussed how IBM’s forays into RFID and medical search engine technologies were positioning the company to profit handsomely from the lucrative health care market by helping both doctors and hospitals become more efficient.
Well, it now appears, that IBM isn’t satisfied in just helping the physical you, it now wants to create a 3-D representation of you (in the form of an avatar) upon which all of your digital health care information can be quickly and easily displayed and, thus, recalled by doctor.
Dubbed the Anatomic and Sym