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Jump The Curve Archives: 11/2007

Pick Your Fights … or Why You Should Never Battle Brit’s Over Their Bitter

Posted on Nov 30, 2007 - 10:23 AM

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Earlier this week, I had a posting entitled ”Survival isn’t Mandatory” in which I made the case that change isn’t “essential” in the sense that you can always choose to become obsolete.

This is not to say, however, that I believe in change just for change’s sake.

A case in point can be found in the European Parliament’s decision yesterday to allow Britain and Ireland to keep their old imperial measurements in order that pubs can keep serving pints of bitter to their patrons and road signs can show miles instead of kilometers. While I think it is unfortunate that Britain is refusing to change (as is the United States with regard to the metric system), I don’t think anyone really benefits from imposing changes that strike at people’s traditions or which have a strong emotional component.

Better to pick your fights over issues that truly are important. As one of my leadership heroes, General George C. Marshall, once said of his dealings with Franklin Delano Roosevelt, I had a habit of “swallowing the little things in order to go to bat on the big ones.”

It is good advice. Tomorrow’s exponential economy will introduce an inordinant amount of change—to prosper people and organizations will need to focus on incorporating those changes which are most essential to their survival.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Google’s Push into Clean Energy is No Joke

Posted on Nov 29, 2007 - 01:46 PM

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On Tuesday, Google announced that it intends to spend hundreds of millions of dollars investigating a variety of alternative energies such as solar, wind power and geothermal. The initiative has been dubbed RE—as in renewable energy is less expensive than coal.

Many people might feel that the company’s effort to rely less on coal is little more than a PR gimmick to show its continued commitment to its unofficial slogan: “Do no evil.” Others may be inclined to share the concerns of the Bear Stearns official who was quoted in yesterday’s New York Times as saying that he was scared that this was yet another example of Google “trying to bite off more than they can chew.” Perhaps still others might concur with the sentiment of an RBC analyst who wondered in the same article if the initiative was “a joke.”

I disagree on both fronts, and I certainly don’t believe the effort is a joke. In fact, I believe the initiative is a solid, strategic move. For starters, Google, like Microsoft and IBM, are spending huge sums of money paying for the electricity necessary to power their massive data centers. If Google can find a way to operate these centers with solar or geothermal power, not only can it cut down on its energy bill it might also end up saving additional money in the event Congress passes some sort of carbon tax or implements a cap-and-trade system to regulate carbon emissions.

Secondly, I like the move because I think it fits nicely with the company’s officially stated goal of delivering information to people everywhere in the world. That goal obviously includes peoples in the remote areas of China, India and Africa; but, to a large degree, many of the people in these regions are still constrained from accessing information due to a lack of reliable energy sources.

Solar, wind, and fuel cells all hold the potential of producing energy in closer proximity to the company’s future customers. If Google can provide the energy necessary to help people access its search engines, I don’t think the company is biting off more than it can chew at all. In fact, I think the initiative is a great example of the company ”jumping the curve” and it could even end up helping Google eat the lunch of some today’s more staid and conservative energy companies.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Want to Spur Innovation: Award a Prize

Posted on Nov 29, 2007 - 10:00 AM

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Although it is little recalled today, one of the 18th century’s most vexing problems—that of discerning the longitude of a ship—was solved in large part because the British government was willing to award cash prizes to those innovators who successfully tackled the issue. In a similar manner, the Orteig Prize also encouraged Charles Lindbergh to become the first man to cross the Atlantic Ocean in an airplane.

The awarding of prizes is a tradition that seems to be growing in popularity. Last year, NetFlix announced a $1 million prize to anyone who could design an algorithm that could help improve sales by recommending movies that more closely aligned with its customers’ preferences. Richard Branson is awarding a huge prize to anyone who can figure out how to remove copious amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and today, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is kicking-off a competition to award $200,000 to entrepreneurs in the green-energy field.

There are also now prizes to create robotic-driven cars; cars that get 100 miles to the gallon; and even a prize to sequence a person’s genome for less than $10,000.

My point is not only that prizes will spur people to new innovations, but that these new innovations will lead to a myraid of exciting new opportuntiies. Therefore, the exponential executive doesn’t necessarily have to be the one awarding the prize to benefit from the new innovation—they merely need to be poised to be “fast followers” and take advantage of the innovation after it occurs. (On the flip side, many of these new innovations will also disrupt existing businesses and business models and can thus put certain companies and people out of work.)

Therefore, if you want to keep your pulse on the future, I’d encourage you to follow the money—and the prize money that is.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Cultivate a Beginner’s Mind

Posted on Nov 29, 2007 - 07:27 AM

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Thomas Huxley once encouraged people to: ”Sit down before fact as a little child, be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abyss nature leads, or you shall learn nothing.” I really like this quote because, as regular readers of this blog know, I think we can all benefit a great deal from ”thinking like a child.”

A correlary to this is the idea that “inexperience” is not always a negative characteristic. This is especially true if people’s experience precludes them from understanding how the accelerating pace of technological change might change their future in ways which are completely unexpected or maybe even foreign to them. To this end, I highly recommend this article, entitled ”Judgment Trumps Experience,” which appeared in today’s Wall Street Journal. One sentence in particular stands out for me. It reads: ”And often, especially in today’s dizzying world, we need to understand what Zen Buddists call the ‘beginner’s mind,’ which recognizes the value of fresh insight unfettered by experience.”

It’s a wonderful quote and in today’s “dizzying world” it is more appropriate than ever. Now, if you want to take this message to heart and become what I call an exponential executive, the question you must then ask yourself is this: What are you doing to cultivate your own “beginner’s mind”?

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Don’t Laugh: Future Technology Can Make Even Smart People Look Foolish

Posted on Nov 28, 2007 - 11:15 AM

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In my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve: 50 Strategies for Helping Companies Deal with Emerging Technologies, one of the strategies I encourage executives to employ is called “Don’t Laugh.” The strategy is centered on the notion that history has consistently demonstrated that all too often very smart people dismiss—and even laugh off—predictions about the future for the simple reason that they don’t understand the exponential progression of technology.

One example I don’t include in my book is the story of genome experts who, in 1990, dismissed as “implausible” the idea that the human genome could be sequenced by 2005. From their perspective at the time, the genome was less than 1% decoded and the project had already cost over $1 billion—and they had been working on it for years.

What they didn’t comprehend was how new and better supercomputers would ultimately speed up the task. To make a long short story, the human genome was decoded in 2001—under budget.

Now fast forward to today. An article in MIT’s Technology Review discusses the progress being made in constructing a working brain model. Christof Koch, a professor of biology and engineering at Caltech, is quoted as saying that claims that the human brain can be modeled within 10 years are so “ridiculous” that they are not worth discussing.

If the quote sounds familiar, it is because I have explained before how Lord Kelvin, the New York Times and scores of other notable ”linear thinkers” have ended up looking foolish in their attempts to dismiss the future by stating that any number of advances—such as human flight, digital recording, or perhaps cellphones that can diagnose disease—were equally ridiculous.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Reality Stems Stem Cell Breakthrough

Posted on Nov 28, 2007 - 07:41 AM

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Last week, two teams of scientists announced to great fanfare news that they had created the equivalent of embryonic stem cells from ordinary skin cells. Embryonic stem cells, for the uninitiated, have the intriguing ability to become any type of cell and therefore have the potential to morph into heart, nerve and even brain tissue.

As an added benefit, the discovery holds out the possibility that researchers will now be able to produce an unlimited supply of stem cells without any of the moral questions that have muddied the issue of embryo cloning.

The Hype

Not surprisingly, many in the stem cell field were to heap a healthy pile of hyperbole on top of the news. One publication called the breakthrough one of medicine’s holy grails; another researcher gushed, “It’s exciting, it’s seminal, it’s major—quite frankly, I think it’s potentially Nobel-level.” And still another official from Advanced Cell Technology heralded it as both the “biological equivalent of the Wright Brothers’ first airplane” and “a bit like learning how to turn lead into gold.”

These superlatives might be justified; but before rushing out and investing in any stem cell company, readers are encouraged to consider the analogy to the first airplane for a far different reason: as an industry, airlines lost more money than they made during the first 90 years of their existence. And for reasons which I’ll explain shortly, the stem cell industry’s path to profitably could also be some time in the making.

The Hope

First, though, let me elaborate on why the breakthrough does engender legitimate hope. To begin, the task of reprogramming ordinary cells into pluripotent stem cells is apparently so simply that scores of labs around the world will be able to mimic the methodology almost immediately. Secondly, because it side-steps the ethical issues of destroying embryos and/or using unfertilized human eggs to create embryos, the research will qualify for federal research funding. In turn, the combination of these two developments is expected to speed the pace of stem cell research by encouraging more researchers to go into the field.

The second great hope is that in addition to soon using these stem cells to help patients suffering from diseases such as Parkinson’s and diabetes, the tissues grown from these stem cells could also help pharmaceutical companies by getting an early read on how their drugs might work on treating various diseases. This promise has lead a number of pharmaceutical companies to show an interest in using stem cell technology to test drug toxicity during the early stages of drug development.

The Reality

As promising as all of this, however, it will be some time before any of these new stem cells lead to commercial developments. There are multiple reasons for this. For starters, in spite of the revolutionary nature of the development, the researchers admit that the process by which the skin cells turn into stem cells remains a mystery. This type of uncertainty scares regulators as well as large corporations—who are reluctant to get too heavily involved lest they be dragged into costly and time-consuming lawsuits which may result from any problems caused by this lack of complete understanding.

Furthermore, the new stem cells are similar to—but not identical—to embryonic stem cells. The distinction is an important one because transplanted stem cells must be very pure or they can otherwise lead to cancerous growths.

Related to this problem of cancer is the issue of how the skin cells are currently transformed into stem cells. It turns out that the researchers use viruses to ferry genes into the skin cells. And while this type of gene therapy gets the job done, the researchers acknowledge that they will need to find an alternative method to transform cells into stem cells because these viruses could also cause mutations and cancers.

Bottom-line

This is not to say that some or perhaps all of these obstacles won’t be overcome in time. In fact, given that more money and scientists will likely pour into the field as result of this breakthrough, these issues probably will be addressed. It is just that all of this will take some time—perhaps even up to a decade. And this means that executives in the life sciences, pharmaceutical and health care industries (as well as investors in these fields) have plenty of time to digest the consequences of this latest stem cell advance because, as significant as it is, it isn’t going to change the world overnight.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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The Week in Innovation

Posted on Nov 27, 2007 - 08:06 AM

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On a weekly basis I write a regular article for The Motley Fool -- an online investment newsletter—discussing how scientific and technological breakthroughs from just the past week might impact a variety of different industries and companies. Although it is written primarily with the individual investor in mind, the column is also a useful read for executives and managers who are interested in jumping the curve. This week’s article reviews how progress in the areas of data storage, robotics and fuel cell technology might transform the telecommunications and energy industries.

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Survival isn’t Mandatory

Posted on Nov 26, 2007 - 12:36 PM

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The late, great management guru W. Edwards Deming once said, ”It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory.” I couldn’t help but think of this quote when I read last week that newspaper sales plummeted another 3% last year and that e-mail usage among teenagers was down more 8 percent.

The lesson for newspapers as well as for businesses (and individuals) who rely heavily on email is that they had better change or they could be out of business a lot sooner than they expect.

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The Future of Education: Is It About to be Rekindled?

Posted on Nov 26, 2007 - 06:08 AM

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Last week, Amazon unveiled its new electronic book—Kindle. At first glance, it appears to be a substantial improvement over past electronic books in the sense that it is easier read, lighter and can hold up to 200 books in its memory. Like other electronic books it probably won’t do well commercially—at least in the beginning—because it is expensive ($400) and because most people don’t like change.

Nevertheless, I believe that Kindle and its next iterations have the potential to do very well because it is important to understand that Kindle is only going to get better, faster and cheaper.

As I said, at the present time, Kindle costs $400; can store 200 books; only has a black-and-white screen; and its battery lasts 8 hours. Due to a variety of technological advances, the price will drop, memory storage will increase dramatically, the screen will someday be capable of color (and showing videos) and the battery will last a full week. As a result of advances in flexible electronics, it will also be lighter and so flexible that it can be rolled-up or even folded into one’s pocket.

Moreover, as more and more people—especially young people—grow up reading material on their PC’s, iPhone’s and other electronic devices, their resistance to reading books on an electronic screen will dissipate. This is especially true because the books will be more affordable than paper books and readers will be able to link to the Internet to access additional information about whatever they are reading. For instance, if they don’t know a word they can look it up right there because Kindle has an embedded dictionary.

Another factor working in Kindle’s favor is the fact that knowledge itself is said to be doubling every seven years. What this means is textbooks are in an almost constant need of being updated and revised. This is a costly proposition for most school districts. With Kindle, however, these books can simply be updated and wirelessly transmitted to the pupil’s elctronic book.

All of these factors will lead to believe that teachers, students and the general public will, over time, “unlearn” their reliance on pulp-based books and begin to see the many advantages of electronic books.

For a more in-depth look at Kindle, I would encourage you to watch this video:

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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10 Reasons We Will Live to 1000

Posted on Nov 22, 2007 - 09:29 AM

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It being Thanksgiving , I would like to give thanks for a great many things—including my health. As a futurist, however, I am prone to thinking about my future health and, on this front, I am equally thankful because when I look out to the future I see people (and hopefully myself included) living much longer and healthier lives.

A few weeks back, I encouraged readers when thinking about the future to ”think 10X, not 10%” and the more I think about health care, the more I think this line of thought applies to this field as well. I recently came across this article entitled”The man who will help you live for 1,000 years.” It is about Aubrey de Grey’s new book ”Ending Aging.”

To most people the idea of living to 1,000 sounds absolutely crazy. But, as I explain in my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, due to exponential advances in a variety of technologies the ability to do what sounds “impossible” today could very well become quite possible tomorrow.

With this brief introduction then let me provide you 10 reasons why you might live to 1,000.

#1: More powerful computers. Last week, it was announced that IBM had the world’s most powerful supercomputer. It is capable of 1 quadrillion calculations per second. More impressive, by 2009, IBM expects to have a supercomputer capable of 10 quadrillion calculations per second. Now, computer speed, in and of itself, will not directly lead to longer lives but what these supercomputers are learning about the human body—the brain, protein-folding, pharmacogenomics, etc.—could very well lead to some amazing medical breakthroughs.

#2 Better Drugs. I recently stumbled across this article entitled ”So You Want to Live Forever?” It discusses the progress that Sirtris Pharmaceuticals is making in testing a fountain-of-youth pill in humans. The drug may or may not work, but if it doesn’t work there are similar drugs in the FDA pipeline and it is not unrealistic to think that some of those drugs might just someday be successful at extending human life. (And with the first Baby Boomers set to hit retirement age on January 1, 2008, you can bet that there will be a large market for any drug that keeps the “Woodstock” generation feeling and looking young.)

#3: Implantable Organs. I have written before about the amazing progress being made in the area of implantable organs. Today, bladders and human skin are being grown. Tomorrow, it is possible that kidneys and livers might be grown. And in 10 or 15 years (perhaps sooners) maybe even the human heart will be able to be artifically manufactured.

#4 Stem Cell Research: Earlier this week, researchers announced that they derived a new method for growing stem cells that might sidestep some of the ethical issues hindering current research. If so, advances in stem cell research could progress at faster rate than most people generally appreciate.

#5 Genome sequencing: This past weekend the New York Times ran an article describing how three companies want to make a portion of your genome available to you for less than $1000. This is extraordinary considering that in the mid-1970’s it cost $150 million to sequence a single gene! As the technology continues to improve and we learn more about how genes regulate human health scientists and researchers could easily find ways to lenthen human longeveity.

#6: Robotic surgeries: I written before about the future of health care and I am of the opinion that within the next decade amazing breakthroughs will be made in the field of robotic surgeries. In fact, researchers in South Korea are already experimenting with miniature robots to clear people’s arteries. If effective, heart disease may be a thing of the past.

#7: Nanotechnology: The National Cancer Institute has speculated that due to advances in nanotechnology cancer could be a treatable disease as early as 2015.

#8: Advances in proteinomics and metagenomics. How the human body operates is only imprecisely understood today. As advances in each of the aforementioned fields progresses, however, we will have a much better understanding of the human body and, thus, how to treat it.

#9: Human Desire. I understand perfectly well that a vast majority of people are terribly uncomfortable with the idea of radical life extension. Nevertheless there are thoughtful and intelligent people such as Aubrey de Grey who are actively challenging society to think differently. Rather than accepting aging as an inevitable aspect of life, they are instead encouraging society to view aging as a disease—as something to be treated. This is a profound paradigm shift, but is it any more profound than Copernecius telling people 500 years ago that they were not at the center of the universe? History has a way of demonstrating that future often turns out much different than most people appreciate and that what constitutes “conventional wisdom” in one era is laughed at and mocked in future generations.

#10: Evolution. Lastly, I am willing to accept that perhaps mankind is destine to evolve towards radical life extension. In 1600, the average life expectancy was 36 years. At the beginning of the 17th century, life expectancy had inched forward to 37 years. One hundreds later it had increased to 39 years. At the beginning of the 20th century, it was 47. Only a 100 years , however, it had increased almost 30 years—to 77. What will the next 100 years hold? It is difficult to imagine, but it is important to understand that society will not simply experience a rate of change similar to the last century. Due to the accelerating rate of progress we could very well experience the equilavent of 20,000 years of progress (as measured by the 20th century rate). Within all of this progress, it is possible that we might find the key (or keys) to radical life extension? I argue that the answer is yes.

The real question then becomes: “How do we prepare ourselves and society for this seismic change?”

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Future Technology and the Ability to Absorb It

Posted on Nov 21, 2007 - 09:37 AM

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In my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, I spend a great deal of time documenting how exponential advances in semiconductors, data storage, bandwidth, gene sequencing, brain scanning technology, robotics, algorithms and nanotechnology will fundamentally alter the business environment in the next decade. I am, however, aware of the fact that technology is already outpacing society’s ability to adapt to it. As such, I am always careful to temper client’s enthusiam about how quickly many of today’s emerging technologies will be incorporated into the fabric of our lives.

To this end, I would like to offer this short history lesson which I pulled from Pip Coburn’s informative book, The Change Function: Why Some Technologies Take Off and Others Crash:

-- The first mobile phone in the U.S. was available in 1946.
-- The first video game was played in 1961
-- The first personal computer was built in 1964
-- The first e-mail was sent in 1971.

Bottom-line: Change does happen, but often it occurs a lot slower than most people generally recognize or appreciate.

Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Data Storage: Hold That Thought … Literally

Posted on Nov 20, 2007 - 07:41 AM

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At a technology summit in 2006, I had the opportunity to share the stage with Patrick Burns, an official from Seagate. He noted that in the process of writing and reading data his company’s latest HDD disk can spin up to 15,000 rpm and flies just forty atoms above the recording head. Burns went on to share an illuminating analogy to put this feat in some perspective. If the recording head were the size of a 747 jet, he said, the disk would need to be the size of the earth. Therefore, for the jet to perform its job, it would fly less than a centimeter off the ground at 800 times the speed of sound. Moreover, it would need to be capable of counting every blade of grass in an area the size of Ireland, while having an error rate of less than ten blades of grass.

That’s pretty impressive. What’s even more notable is that the next iteration of the data storage technology—because it is experiencing exponential growth—will fly at the analogy-equivalent rate of 1,600 times the speed of sound, fly only half a centimeter off the ground, and be capable of counting every blade of grass in a country twice the size of Ireland with only five errors.

At some point this level of progression will cease. But this time is not on the immediate horizon. Earlier this year, Seagate, Hitachi, and others began selling hard drives capable of storing 1 terabyte of information. (A terabyte, for those with enquiring minds, is an eco-friendly unit of measurement. To store the equivalent amount of information on paper, it would require us to fell 50,000 trees.) By 2010 the industry expects to construct devices capable of storing 300 terabytes--a 300-fold leap--or about the equivalent of storing one year’s worth of data from the Earth Orbiting Satellite system.

The task for the Exponential Executive is begin thinking about the implications of this amazing amount of progress. For example, with that much data storage capability, future-generation recording technology won’t simply be able to record every conversation a person has ever had it will enable that person to record everything that they have ever seen! To this end, it might interest you to know that Microsoft has a research project called MyLifeBits, which is striving to digitally record every aspect of a person’s life. The company is doing this in the expectation that this will soon be an everyday occurrence.

If you want to stay ahead of the curve, you have to learn to “jump the curve” and if you jump the curve with data storage I think you’ll see that there is a world of amazing opportunity out there.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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A Useful Analogy for Thinking About Future Technology

Posted on Nov 19, 2007 - 08:05 AM

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Someone once asked Albert Einstein what he considered mankind’s most powerful discovery. Without hesitation he replied, “Compound interest.” The world’s numerati have long been fascinated by the awesome power of geometrical growth, and to prosper in the economy of the future, or what I call the exponential economy, today’s leaders must go beyond simple fascination and embrace the extraordinary possibilities that exponential growth portends.

The distinction between linear growth and exponential growth is not merely a matter of degrees. It can literally be the difference between life and death, as the following story demonstrates.

According to legend, the emperor of China, after being presented with the game of chess, was so impressed with it that he offered the inventor--a seemingly humble man--a gift of his choosing. The inventor made a request that on the face of it seemed innocent enough. He requested that he be granted a single grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard, two on the second, four on the third, and so on until all the board’s squares were accounted for. The emperor glanced at the board, noted it had only sixty-four squares, and readily granted the man his request.

The story abruptly ends with the emperor severing the inventor’s head after only the thirty-second square. This is because, although only halfway through the deal, the emperor was already committed to providing the inventor the equivalent of forty acres worth of rice. Had he lived up to the terms of the agreement, the emperor would have been put in the untenable position of having to supply 18 million trillion grains of rice. To appreciate this predicament it helps to understand that it would take an area approximately twice the size of the earth, including all of the oceans, to produce that much rice.

You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet!

Like most fables, the story holds a powerful and valuable lesson and it is one that is especially relevant today: If you think change is happening fast today, you haven’t seen anything yet. Consider just the first of many such real-world equivalents of exponential growth: computer transistors. For the past forty years the number of transistors that could be placed on a computer chip has doubled every eighteen to twenty-four months. This development is widely known as Moore’s law and is named in honor of Gordon Moore, the former CEO of Intel, who in 1965 accurately predicted this progression.

For years so-called experts have been predicting the imminent demise of Moore’s law. Undeterred by such prophecies, talented engineers and technology geeks have ignored their warnings; and earlier this year Intel Corporation achieved the twenty-ninth iteration of this doubling. In so doing, it successfully squeezed mreo than 500 million transistors onto a single chip. This astonishing achievement has dropped the cost of one megahertz of computer processing power from $7,000 in 1970 to just fractions of a penny today.

According to the semiconductor industry, there is still clear sailing for Moore"s law for at least the next ten years. This means, among other things, that by 2018 computers will become a minimum of thirty-two times more powerful than those existing today.

Using the earlier analogy of the chessboard, with regard to the modern transistor era of computers we have not even approached the halfway point in the doubling game. To put it another way, this means that society is but a fraction of the way into the computer revolution. The really big changes are still before us.

The time to begin contemplating what computers thirty-two times more powerful will mean for your business is now. To do this you will need to learn to “jump the curve.”

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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The Future of Food is Tiny

Posted on Nov 16, 2007 - 07:29 AM

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The famous artist Leonardo da Vinci once offered the following pearl of wisdom: “Study the art of science and the science of art.” It is advice that food scientists have taken to heart in spades. However, as a result of advances in the new emerging field of nanotechnology—which is briefly defined as manipulating atoms at the molecular level in order to make new products—scientists and other food professionals will now be required to apply their understanding of science to a level that is so infinitesimally small that it is hard to grasp. One nanometer is roughly 100,000 times thinner than a human hair.

But to professionals in a field where it is not uncommon that a pinch of a spice or a few extra seconds of heat to an ingredient can make the difference between a good meal and a great one, it will be important to understand that at the nanoscale the weird world of quantum mechanics kicks in and materials and ingredients begin to manifest entirely new characteristics, and it is scientists ability to manipulate these new and enhanced characteristics that lies at the heart of the fields ability to transform virtually every aspect of food. (For a good, short primer, I recommend this recent article describing Nestle’s use of nanotechnology to create foods with optimal stability, nutrient delivery, flavors and aromas.)

A New Shaper Knife

Today, the food scientist must concern him or herself with issues of health and nutrition, good and bad fats, sanitation, packaging and, of course, pairings, aromas, textures, sensations and flavors. The ability to apply modern science to culinary problems in these latter areas has sometimes called ”molecular gastronomy.” Nanotechnology will require culinlogists to take this skill to a new—and smaller—level.

Given nanotechnology’s immense potential, it is not surprising that over half of the top ten food companies in the world, including Campbells, ConAgra, General Mills, H.J. Heinz, Kraft Foods, Nestle, PepsiCo, Sara Lee and Unilever, are all investing heavily in the field. Their reason is simple: they all understand that by manipulating materials, packaging and food stuffs at the molecular level they can teach old food products new tricks. To this end, Cientifica, a European-based nanotechnology research firm, estimates that the value of all food products incorporating nanotechnology will soar 14-fold from $410 million in 2007 to $5.8 billion by 2012.

To many people, though, nanotechnology sounds as if it were still a far-off, fuzzy, futuristic technology. Nothing could be further from the truth. A number of real world nanotechnology-enhanced products are presently on the market and they are being utilized by savvy companies and chefs to gain a competitive advantage. To use a simple and appropriate metaphor, nanotechnology is creating a sharper knife. (In fact, Apollo Diamond has now manufactured a low-cost, high-quality synthetic diamond that could potentially be used to manufacture a sharper, longer-lasting knife.)

At a more immediate level, Honeywell and others have created new nanomaterials that allow packaging to keep food fresher for a longer period of time. By tweaking the molecular structure of the plastic, scientists have created an almost impenetrable barrier through which oxygen molecules cannot navigate.

BASF has created self-cleaning nanomaterials which are being used in both kitchens and in clothing to imbue sinks and uniforms with self-cleaning properties. And a company called Aspen Aerogels has created a new nanomaterial that has eight times the thermal insulation properties of the best material currently on the market. The implication is that if storage and packaging companies begin using the material, their products will be significantly fresher when they ultimately reach the kitchen.

In addition to nanomaterials, nanoparticles are also having a big impact on the food industry. For years, the anti-bacterial properties of silver have been well understood, but when silver is ground into nanoscopic particles these benefits are magnified due to their huge surface-to-area ratio. Some strawberry growers are already using these silver nanoparticles to keep their product free of fungal growth for an extended period of time.

And still another company, OilFresh, has figured out how to employ a new nanoceramic material to keep frying oil fresher. Beyond its immediate money-saving benefit (kitchens use about half as much as oil as they normally do), the device, which only costs $299 and can be easily installed and cleaned, also improves the final quality of the product because the oil stays more uniform throughout the cooking process. It even allows users to switch back-and-forth from seafood to meat without creating any carryover flavor. More importantly, because the device directs oxygen away from the oil and prevents the oil from clumping, it allows users to switch from hydrogenated products to healthier vegetable oils.

Tailored to Your Taste and Touch

As noteworthy as these advances are, the future of the food industry doesn’t simply reside in better packaging, self-cleaning knives, fresher strawberries or even healthier french fries. It rests in creating food that is personalized to the individual user.

To some extent advances in radio frequency identification (RFID) technology and nanosensors are providing people to more information about their food than ever before. For instance, in Japan RFID tags allow consumers to track from which herd and farm a piece of beef came from; to what that cow ate and whether it was administered any antibiotics; down to the date the animal was slaughtered and how long the product was in transit before it finally reached the grocery shelf.

As nanotechnology continues to make RFID tags smaller, better and cheaper, the type and number of products capable of being traced to this level of specificity will increase exponentially. It is even likely that the RFID chips of the future will contain a molecular diagnostic component that can rapidly assess any product for the presence of any disease, including E. coli, salmonella, Listeria or Campylobacter.

Alas, such advances are merely passive in nature. They allow consumers to know a more about their food and make better informed decisions; but such advances still fall well short of the vision of personalized food. Nevertheless, this is where things are headed.

Nutralease, a nanotechnology company in Israel, is now developing and selling nutraceuticals that are embedded directly in food products to deliver improved health results. Nanoparticles of lycopene, which is known to lower the risk of breast and prostate cancer, as well as nanoparticles of phytosterol, which is found in canola oil and is effective in lowering cholesterol, are now being sold to food companies for the express purpose of creating healthier products.

Still other companies are exploring the possibility of using dendrimers, which are synthetic nanoscale devices upon which any number of different molecules can be attached. Think of the nanoscale device as being a super tiny wine rack that contains an almost limitless number of different wines. But instead of just complimenting any meal, each molecule can be made to do something different. For instance, one molecule can imbue a food product with new aroma; another can modify the texture; and a third might deliver a cholesterol-lowering molecule directly to the consumer’s artery.

Longer-term, researchers in the field of nanotechnology are even hoping to develop foods which are personalized to the tastes and health conditions of individual people. The technology would work by wrapping individual molecules with a neutral coating—much like a coated M&M. Only instead of these different coated molecules all doing the same thing, each would perform a different function depending on its color.

The trick, of course, is to get each M&M to perform on cue, and nanotechnology researchers are attempting to address this issue by applying different levels of heat or light to each individually coated molecule prior to consumption such that if a consumer preferred a sweeter taste only the “green” coatings would absolve. If, on the other hand, a person preferred a sour taste, only the “red” coatings would melt away to release their inner content.

Nanotechnologists are even on the verge of figuring out how to release nutraceuticals and drug molecules in the presence of specific health markers. In this way, lycopene nanoparticles might only be triggered if a genetic marker for breast cancer was found or, alternatively, phytosterol would be released only if a protein marker indicative of a heart problem were found.

Only a Matter of Time

The benefits of nanotechnology are many, but the field will advance slowly if for no other reason that people have a strong personal and cultural bond with the food they eat. Moreover, many consumers are rightly leery of putting things into their body’s for which the long-term implications are only partially understood. The concern over genetically modified organisms is an excellent case-in-point.

The government, food companies and scores of academic researchers are investing aggressively in an attempt to address these concerns, and it will take some time for all of the issues to be addressed, but as they are the many unique benefits of nanotechnology will also become better known. As they do, food professionals can expect to be hearing a lot more about nanotechnology in the coming years. It is a small science but it will have a big impact on the entire food industry.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Top Five Diggs on Future Technology

Posted on Nov 15, 2007 - 07:21 AM

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As a professional futurist, I am by neccessity an avid reader. I am also a firm believer in what James Surowiecki has called ”The Wisdom of the Crowds”—or, more simply put, the idea that ”all of us know a lot more than what any one of us can know individually.” It is for this reason that I make it daily habit to visit Digg.com for interesting, insightful, innovative and entertaining articles about the future that might have otherwise escaped my attention.

With this introduction in mind, I would now like to share with you five informative articles about future technology that I have picked up from Digg:

1. The Future of Food: The Science of Yummy. A fascinating look at how accelerating advances in molecular biology, nanotechnology, brain structures and genetic code are revolutionizing the food we eat.

2. The Future of Robots. This article by noted futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil explains why the future of robotics depends less on advances in computers, sensors and material sciences, and more on our understanding of the human brain.

3. Can’t Touch This: The Future is Here. I have written before about future computers and Jeff Han, but this article elaborates on how companies such as Accenture are already employing interactive billboards using touch-screen technology, and it explains why we will likely be seeing more of the technology in stores, school and subways sooner than most people realize.

4. Top 10 Future Energy Solutions. In March of 2008, I will have a new book coming out entitled ”Green Investing: How to Make Money Through Environmentally-Friendly Stocks.” It profiles companies in nine of this article’s top 10 future energy solutions, including hydrogen, solar, geothermal, wave power, nuclear, wind and even clean coal—but it does not really address the article’s #1 future energy solution: artificial photosynthesis. Now, in the past, I might have dismissed this oversight, but since over 630 people have “dugg” the article, I now believe that the article is telling me that I may have missed something big. (To this end, I intend to do more research on artificial photosynthesis.)

5. 11 Neuroscientists Debunk a Common Myth about Brain Training. The article highlights 11 interviews with leading neuroscientists which, when taken together, make a compelling case that due to accelerating advances in fMRI and other neuroimaging techniques, “cognitive simulations” and “cognitive training” could not only change how we think about the brain (and what it does) in the future, it could also lead to radical changes in how we educate our minds.

P.S. Thanks to all of you diggers who are helping me do my job better!

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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The Week in Innovation

Posted on Nov 14, 2007 - 03:55 PM

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On a weekly basis I write a regular article for The Motley Fool -- an online investment newsletter—discussing how scientific and technological breakthroughs from just the past week might impact a variety of different industries and companies. Although it is written primarily with the individual investor in mind, the column is also a useful read for executives and managers who are interested in jumping the curve. This week’s article reviews how progress in the fields of neurorobotic surgery, nanotechnology and “printable” organs will transform the health care sector. The full article can be read here.

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The Future of Organ Sales

Posted on Nov 14, 2007 - 11:10 AM

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Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal ran a front page entitled ”Kidney Shortage Inspires a Radical Idea: Organ Sales.” The article has generated a great deal of discussion, including this thread over at Freakonomics.

To me, the idea of organ sales isn’t that radical and I would argue that what needs to happen in the short term is that a great many people need to ”unlearn” their gut reaction opposition to organ sales.

My point, however, is not to digress into the moral, ethical and societal merits of whether society should or shouldn’t allow organ sales; rather, I’d like to bring to your attention this recent article discussing the amazing progress being made in the field of “printing” organs.

That’s right, researchers using bio-ink and bio-paper are now making great strides in printing physical organs. Researchers such as Dr. Anthony Atala have already successfully “printed” human bladders and, as this article suggests, progress is being made with other organs.

Given the exponential pace of advancement in the equipment, technology and science of organ growth (e.g. cell biology, stem cell biology, materials science, computational science, etc.), it is my opinion that within a decade’s time all of this discussion about organ sales will have disappeared because printing organs will have become as common as pace-makers and in-vitro fertilization—two scientific advances which, by the way, were also vehemently opposed when they were first proven feasible.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Swarm Intelligence Gets Even Smarter

Posted on Nov 14, 2007 - 10:00 AM

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Today’s New York Times has a fascinating article entitled ”From Ants to People, an Instinct to Swarm.” In my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, I dedicate an entire chapter to the topic of biomimickry—which is just a fancy way of saying that we still have an amzing amount to learn from the natural world around us.

As the article explains, ants are an intriguing topic of study. For instance, has it ever occurred to you how thousands of individual ants are able to travel all over the place without ever getting into a traffic jam? The answer is that they follow a simple set of rules and have antennas that sweep the air and allow them to avoid collisons.

To me, this is interesting way to think about the future. I have written extensively on the possibility that robotic automobiles are fast becoming a reality. It never occurred to me that the robots might be designed with antennas which could allow them to become even better at avoiding collisions. Yet the more I think about it, the more reasonable it seems to me that the robotic cars of the future might be designed with ants in mind.

The entire field of applying swarm intelligence to robots is one of immense potential. Last week, Technology Review discussed how a company called Kiva Systems is using robots to deliver online orders faster. At the present time, the robots rely on sophisticated algorithms to avoid collisions. What if, however, these algorithms could be combined with antenna-like feelers or, alternatively, the algorithms could be improved through a better understanding of swarm intelligence? One likely outcome—which will impact almost every retailer—is that soon a lot more companies than just Staples and Walgreens will soon be using robots to fulfill online orders.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Google Jumps the Curve

Posted on Nov 13, 2007 - 10:35 AM

Earlier today in the YouTube clip posted below, Google unveiled an early prototype of its new phone, Android.

If you watch the video, you will notice that the phone itself doesn’t look all that special. In fact, Apple’s iPhone would appear to be vastly superior. But Google’s Android has two things going for it. First, Google clearly understands the incredible and immense power of the open-source movement. The video is basically an open-ended casting call to thousands of software engineers to develop new applications for its phone. From Google’s perspective this is, in effect, a way to tap into the minds—and ideas—of thousands of incredibly talented and innovative people for nothing!

To say it is free is not entirely true. Google has also adopted a second tool which I outline in my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, and that is the idea that company’s should offer prize money as way to entice innovation. In Google’s case, the company is offering $10 million in prize money to those software developers who create the best applications.

My prediction is that Google is going to receive thousands of crazy ideas and most of the ideas will be worthless. But—and this is an important “but”—if just one or two of those ideas turn into a “killer app,” the plan to open-source Android will pay for itself a thousand-fold—even after the $10 million in prize money has been taken into consideration.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Robotics Industry Takes a Baby Step

Posted on Nov 12, 2007 - 03:08 PM

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In another sign that the robotics industry is poised to become a mainstream industry, ScienceDaily is reporting that researchers are now allowing children to explore their world with robots.

At first glance, the idea seems a little premature. After all, it might be reasoned, children should learn to walk before they learn how to control a robot. But, if you give it some thought, if robots are going to become more prevalent in society doesn’t it make sense to introduce them to children as early as possible—and when they are most adept at learning?

As the article explains, however, this early focus on children and robots is designed at helping infants with Down Syndrome, cerebral palsy and autism better navigate their environment. In short, researchers are trying to figure out how robots can help children with disorders better assimilate into their surrounding environment.

Longer term, if robots can help infants better operate in the world, it doesn’t take much of a stretch to imagine how robots might also allow the elderly as well as other fully abled-bodied individuals to increase their productivity and even do entirely new things.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Dude, Where’s My Flying Car?

Posted on Nov 12, 2007 - 09:44 AM

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It is, perhaps, one of the more enduring questions about the future: When will flying cars arrive? I don’t have an exact answer, but I’m optimistic that the first versions will appear within a decade’s time. As the following video clip demonstrates, companies such as Moller SkyCar are still a far way from achieving a working prototype, but progress is being made:

Moreover, if you read this article from yesterday’s New York Times about the cars of 2057, one thing might jump out at you: each company is counting on progress being made in the fields of nanotechnology, semiconductors, sensors and robotics. As I state in my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, each of those fields is experiencing exponential growth. If one applies this exponential progress to the concept of flying cars, it becomes possible to understand that flying cars are not an “impossible dream” as many people suggest. (Although it is worth pointing out that I believe the capability to manufacture flying cars will far outpace the vehicle’s introduction into society due to a variety of factors including regulatory issues; lawsuits; as well as people’s resistance to change.)

Of course, if you are a conspiracy theorist, it is also possible that the major automobile companies are hiding something as this hilarious video from The Onion suggests:


Mean Automakers Dash Nation’s Hope For Flying Cars

Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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To Walk the Escalator … It Helps to Have a Sense of Humor

Posted on Nov 10, 2007 - 11:21 AM

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Earlier this week, one of those all-too-common articles stating what is already obvious to most people (e.g. “Study confirms exercise bolsters health,” etc.) was released by BusinessWeek. The gist of the article was that humor increases work place productivity. No shit!

In that spirit then I’d like to share with you this hilarious article from The Onion, entitled, ”Study Finds Working at Work Improves Productivity.”

I’d also encourage you to watch this short commercial. Better than any of the past articles I have written on ”walking the escalator,” it demonstrates in vivid fashion what I mean by the phrase. Enjoy and have a great weekend!


Broken Escalator - These bloopers are hilarious

Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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To Understand the Future It Helps to Have a Brain

Posted on Nov 09, 2007 - 09:42 AM

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Yesterday, I had a posted suggesting that you didn’t need to be a brain surgeon to see where the future was headed in terms of robotic surgery. I still stand by this statement, but as this news story explains it will still be essential to have a brain.

I have written before about the amazing amount of progress being made in the field of brain-machine interface technology -- or the ability to control external devices by thought alone. But, as the article explains, the technology is probably far more advanced than most people generally recognize. And while it is cool that monkeys can now mentally guide robotics to feed themselves, and ALS victims can continue to communicate with loved ones by using their mind to control a keyboard, I think it is vital that everyone in business today ”jump the curve” and try to understand where this technology might be headed.

(If you wish you can go “bananas” and watch this 55-second video clip of the monkey using its brain to control the robotic arm to feed itself bananas by clicking here.)

For example, what are the implications if people can control simple robotic devices by thought alone? One possibility is that elderly people who wish to remain in their homes (instead of moving into assisted-living facilities) might be able to maintain their independence longer by merely “thinking” a robot to clear away their dishes or clean the bathroon.

I have also written about the exponential advances in self-driving robotic cars. While, at first, people will undoubtedly be reluctant to turn over the control of the steering wheel to a robot, is it possible that their unease might be alleviated if they knew they could take over control of the car simply by “thinking” about it?

To many people such ideas sound impossible, but if you understand where brain-machine interface and robotic technologies are in terms of their progress today and further understand the exponential advances these technologies are experiencing, I think you’ll see that your brain will be able to do a lot more than it is currently doing. At a minimum, I’d encourage you to just “think” about it.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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You Don’t Have to Be a Brain Surgeon to See Where the Future is Headed

Posted on Nov 08, 2007 - 10:08 AM

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The National Research Council of Canada recently released some very interesting news describing the progress that it is being made with the world’s first MTI-compatible, image-guided neurosurgical robot. The device is dubbed the NeuroArm. Now, I’m no brain surgeon, but I have followed the progress that a company called Intuitive Surgical has been making in the field of robotic-assisted prostatecomies, and it might interest you to know that in 2005 the company was performing less 1% of all prostectomies. Today, it is performing over 50%!

The reason this is occurring is because the da Vinci robot (which is still controlled by a surgeon using a computer) is so precise that the surgury is only minimally invasive, and this allows the patient to leave the hospital in one to two days. Patients who have a traditional operation must stay five to seven days. Of course, this extra stay costs hospitals a great deal of money and they now have a vested interest in switching patients over to the robotic-asisted surgery. Not surprisingly, convincing patients to undergo a robotic-assisted operation has been made easier because they are not only told the scar will be much smaller but they will also get out of the hospital much sooner.

The NeuroArm and similar neurosurgical robots are the wave of the future. They may not be performing many operations today, but my guess is that just as Intuitive Surgical’s Da Vinci robots now control the prostatectomy market, neurosurgical robots will contol the brain surgery market in 5 to 10 years.

If you are so inclined, I recommend the following 10-minute video from Wired Science which shows how the da Vinci robot is now beginning to assist with heart surgery:

In an unrelated bit of Canadian-related medical news (apparently there must be something in the water in Canada that is causing them to embrace the future technology more quickly than their American colleagues), Canadian researchers have teamed up with IBM to make use of the company’s World Community Grid -- a vast network of personal computers and laptops that is the equivalent of one of the world’s fastest supercomputers.

The significance of this item is that the researchers have been able to analyze the results of a large number experiments on proteins. So powerful is the supercomputer that if the reseachers had had to rely on a regular computer to crunch the data it would have taken them 162 years! Using the World Community Grid they did it in two years!

It is a wonderful example of ”jumping the curve” because this research is likely to help medical researchers the world over better understand how defective proteins cause cancer in our bodies, as well as diagnose cancer sooner.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Pump it Up: Retailers Use Google to Create Customer Loyalty

Posted on Nov 07, 2007 - 01:53 PM

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Earlier today, I had a post explaining how a new technology from PayScale might help businesses by reducing the number and length of unnecessary, unproductive and useless meetings employees must attend. As I indicated, the technology offers a good example of how a company can “walk the escalator.” In this same category, I would like to offer you this news that Google is now headed to a gas pump near you.

At first glance, it might not appear to be that innovative, but I would like to suggest otherwise. For starters, many people—especially men—are reluctant to stop and ask for directions. If a gas station pump offers quick access to Google it provides a way for the retailer to bring in some new customers. On a more strategic level, the service offers a method for retailers to create more customer loyalty by saving customers money. Google can do this by offering customers coupons to other merchants in the area.

Longer term, if you understand where Google is headed and you can ”jump the curve” in terms of where wireless and RFID technology is headed, you might also envision Google soon conducting a quick diagnostic test of your automobile and determining if your oil needs changing, your tires need air, or your windshield fluid needs to be topped off. All in all, this news should give retailers plenty to get pumped up about.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Time is Money … So Walk the Escalator

Posted on Nov 07, 2007 - 09:26 AM

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In a previous career, I headed a large state agency. Before I arrived, the organization had a culture of attending regularly scheduled meetings—regardless of whether the meetings were necessary. In other words, the meetings were held without regard for the true cost of the meeting. While I had some success in curtailing the number and length of these meetings, I wasn’t entirely successful. (Bureaucratic inertia is a difficult beast to slay.) Sometimes during the meetings I would do a rough calculation in my mind on the cost of the meeting by estimating every attendees hourly wage and then multiplying the figures by the length of the meeting. After I added it all up, more often than not, the cost of the meeting didn’t justify the benefit.

I suspect I am not alone in my experience. Well, according to this posting on TechCrunch a new company called PayScale is taking the guess work out such back-of-the-envelop calculations. The tool is a perfect example of what I call in my forthcoming book, “walking the escalator”—or using existing technologies to make your business or organization more effective today.

The old saying is true: “Time is money” ... so you might as well put a real cost to all those meetings you are attending. My guess is that once you do both the number and length of the meetings your organization is holding will drop precipitiously.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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AT&T is an AS&S

Posted on Nov 06, 2007 - 10:26 AM

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I understand when academics say dumb things, and I’m even tolerant of futurists who say stupid things, but I get down-right scared when people in the business world say idiotic things. As a case in point, I would refer you to an article in today’s New York Times. In it, in response to the impending threat of a new phone from Google, Mark Siegal, a spokeperson for AT&T, was quoted as saying, ”Google’s announcement is about what is going to happen in the future, and our focus is about delivering the goods today.” This is an abolutely asisine thing to say, and my guess is that Mr. Siegal and thousands of other people at AT&T are going to be out of work within the next few years precisely because Google is focused on the future and AT&T isn’t.

Last week, I wrote a post encouraging executives to focus not on 10% improvements in product development, but rather seek to understand how 10X improvements in data storage, Internet bandwidth, sensor and RFID technology as well as access to copious amounts of new information are going to transform the business landscape in the not-to-distant future.

I continue to believe that the cellphone of the future is going to act more like a Swiss Army knife and perform an amazing array of functions rather than a glorified cellphone/Internet browser. My advice to AT&T: If you continue to focus only on “delivering the goods today,” you are going to find that very soon there will be no one willing to accept your goods because they will have moved on to those companies that were focused on the future. As a collorary, I would add that in the future AT&T’s phones will probably become so useless that you won’t even want to wipe your you-know-what with them.

P.S. I know AT&T didn’t alway think this way, as proof I submit this 1993 commercial discussing the company’s vision of the future. It didn’t get everything right, but it was pretty close:

If AT&T still wants to be in business in 2017, I’d suggest that company executives might want to conduct a thought exercise about the future and then make a similar commercial envisioning the phone of 2017.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Just Another Ho-Hum Week in the World of Technology

Posted on Nov 05, 2007 - 05:55 PM

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On a weekly basis I write a regular article for The Motley Fool -- an online investment newsletter—discussing how scientific and technological breakthroughs from just the past week might impact a variety of different industries and companies. Although it is written primarily with the individual investor in mind, the column is also a useful read for executives and managers who are interested in jumping the curve. This week’s article reviews how progress in the fields of self-assembly, material science and atomic force microscopy will impact the semiconductor, automobile and health care sectors. The full article can be read here.

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Here Come the Robots

Posted on Nov 05, 2007 - 10:18 AM

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This past week, I wrote about the DARPA “Urban Challenge.” Well, this past Saturday, a team from Carnegie Mellon took home the first prize. Technology Review has a good article about the event, but to gain a deeper appreciation of where the future of self-driving robotic automobiles might be headed, I’d encourage you to watch this short, two-minute YouTube video clip:

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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To Think Like a Child, Get on a Trike

Posted on Nov 05, 2007 - 09:18 AM

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Today’s Wall Street Journal has an interesting front-page article entitled “The Easier Rider” which profiles a new three-wheeled motorcycle dubbed the “trike.” Among many mototycling enthusiasts the three-wheeled contraption is being ridiculed as nothing more than a small, three-wheeled car. I don’t ride a motorcycle, but I think the trike could meet with a great deal of marketplace success.

For starters, mototcyclists are getting older. As they get older they tend to value safety more than “looking cool.” Secondly, as they age, they are also getting larger. As riders put on more pounds, their motorcycles also become more difficult to manuever. The trike addresses this pesky poundage issue. Finally, I think the trike could catch on with a new group of people who may be attracted to the trike’s fuel-efficiency . With the price of oil hovering near $100-a-barrel, I think a number of people might be willing to suffer a little ridicule as long they don’t have to shell out $50 or more every time they fuel up at the local gas station.

As always, when thinking about the future, I’d encourage you to “think like a child.” And when you were young, a part of the initial excitement of riding a trike was simply the fact that you were moving on your own power. As America ages, I can see a great way people wanting to either retain that feeling or return to it—and if a three-wheeled motorcycle is one way to do that then so be it.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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The End of Intuition?

Posted on Nov 03, 2007 - 01:08 PM

This past week, I wrote a book review of Super Crunchers for the Motley Fool. From the review (which you can read here), you’ll see that I really enjoyed the book, and I’d recommend it for anyone who is serious about “learning to unlearn.” In my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, I dedicate an entire chapter to the idea of “unlearning.” The world is now moving so fast and we are acquiring so much new knowledge that it is inevitable that we are going to discover a great many things that challenge conventional wisdom. But before we can let go of conventional wisdom and absorb these new truths, we must first learn how to unlearn .

Let me just offer a few highlights from the book. Up until recently, wine experts felt they were the only ones who could adequately assess whether a wine would grow in value over time. Well, a fellow by the name of Orley Ashenfelter has demonstrated that using only data from the weather he can now regularly beat the pants off snobbish wine experts in selecting the most valuable wines.

Another case in point comes from Michael Lewis’ excellent book, Moneyball. For years, crusty old baseball scouts felt only they could pick the next “phenom.” Wrong! Billy Beane of the Oakland A’s has demonstrated that a palyer’s statistics are a much more accurate predictor of future success. It has taken some time, but now a number of baseball teams (including the recently crowned World Series champions, the Boston Red Sox)have “unlearned” their heavy reliance on those crusty old baseball scouts and have instead learned to trust a bunch of pimpled-faced Ivy League data crunchers to tell them which prospects have the best chance of succeeding in the Big Leagues.

Stiil another case occurred in the field of medicine. For years doctor’s felt ulcers were caused by stress and spicy food. In 1985, a young Australian doctor, Barry Marshall, had the audacity to suggest that ulcers they were caused by bacteria. When he first proposed his theory at a medical conference, he was booed off the stage! Twenty years, he was awarded the Nobel Prize for Medicine. Just imagine how many more people could have been better served if only hundreds of arrogant doctors were willing to unlearn!

If you hope to jump the curve, one of the most vital skills that you will need to develop is an ability to unlearn. It’ll be hard work, but the pay-off could be exponentially large.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Back to the Future: Of Chess Grand Masters and NASCAR Drivers

Posted on Nov 02, 2007 - 07:19 AM

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When I speak about the future of technology, I often use historical analogies as a way of helping my clients envision the future. Consider this example: In the 1960’s and 1970’s and even well into the 1980’s, the idea that a computer could someday defeat a person in the game of chess was considered ludicrous. Well, by 1996 not only were computers regularly winning matches against people, but in a famous match, IBM’s Deep Blue defeated Gary Kasparov, the world’s reigning chess champion.

Now, fast forward to today. Tomorrow, in the California town of Victorville, eleven robotic cars will set off in the hopes of navigating an urban environment. To win the competition and the $2 million prize, the robotic car must drive well enough to earn a California driver’s license. The idea that a robotic car might be good enough to earn a driver license might strike some people as ludicrous, but is it any more implausible than the idea of a computer defeating a person in chess might have seemed in 1960? Moreover, if computers can now always defeat chess grand masters, might it not also be possible that some day in the near future computers will always drive better than even the best NASCAR driver? If you jump the curve, I think you will gain a better perspective on the future of robotics.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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Think 10X not 10%

Posted on Nov 01, 2007 - 11:51 AM

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One of my favorite quotes comes from Kurt Yeager who once said: ”In periods of profound change the most dangerous thing is to incrementalize yourself into the future.” I was reminded of this quote because although I often speak to businesses about the future of technology, I frequently encounter push back from executives who are mostly interested in identifying ways to incrementally improve their businesses or products. In short, they are looking for improvements in the range of 10%.

I constantly remind them, however, that we are no longer living in an era of linear growth—a 10% improvement might have been sufficient to keep them competitive in the past, but it is no strategy if they desire to be in business in 10 years. To achieve that goal, they must be on the lookout for how 10X improvements will transform their business.

To this end, I came across a couple of articles today that highlight this point. The first addresses how a number of researchers are looking to increase data storage by “a factor of a hundred.” It is difficult to contemplate how a 100X improvement in data storage might transform education, media, advertising and even health care, but it is imperative that professionals in these fields start thinking along these lines immediately. Here’s why: according to this recent Technology Review article, a new type of memory technology that uses 99% less energy could be on the market within 18 months. In other words, in the near future not only will your iPod or cellphone be able to hold 100X data, it will also be able to operate using only one one-hundredth of the battery power of your existing device.

Data storage, of course, is just one field experiencing exponential growth—semiconductors, Internet Bandwidth, genomics, robotics, RFID technology, nanotechnology, and even brain scanning technology are all doing the same. With regard to the latter, reseachers at Harvard University have just announced that they can now illuminate brain neurons with 100 different colors -- a 20X improvement.

Now, you might not think that brain scanning technology will impact your business that much, but I would advise you to think otherwise. As researchers learn more about how the brain operates you can expect these professionals to also develop new strategies for learning; to create more effective marketing and advertising campaigns; and even to optimize strategies for bolstering people’s decision-makings processes. Bottom-line: If you are just focused on a 10% improvement, you are already behind the curve. You need to learn to “jump the curve” because the future belongs to those people who can think 10X—or more.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.

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