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Jump The Curve Archives: 03/2008
Cheaper and Better
The other day, I explained why I thought the future would be cheaper -- much cheaper—than today. As further evidence of this claim, I submit this article from today’s Wall Street Journal entitled, ”The Metropolitan Opera Goes to the Movies.” In the article, an experienced opera critic explains why going to see the opera live in a movie theatre (for $22) is better than going to a live performance at the Met for between $200-$350.
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Robots and Haptics and Bandwidth … Oh My!
Earlier this month, I explained how the convergence of sensor technology and robotics will soon lead to more capable household robots. In keeping with this theme of convergence, I’d now like to outline another exciting possibility—long-distance tele-surgery.
It will happen as a result of four different technologies—robotics, flexible electronics, haptic technology and Internet2. For starters, companies such as Intuitive Surgical and MAKO Surgical are already using robotics to conduct prostatectomies and knee surgeries. Both companies, however, intend to employ haptic feedback to allow surgeons to better “feel” where these robotic devices are inside the body—when performing surgery. And haptic technology, as this article on foldable, stretchable circuits explains, will only improve as flexible electronics are incorporated directly into latex surgical gloves.
If you then throw into this mix the extraordinary amount of bandwidth that Internet2 and next-generation advances in wireless and fiber optic technology promise to bring to the Internet, the prospect of conducting some surgeries for afar suddenly becomes more feasible. (I discussed this idea briefly in this article last year.)
And if you want a slightly longer view on where all of this is headed watch this video of Boston Dynamics BigDog robot and it is not difficult to image a robot running to the aid of a soldier wounded on the battlefield or rushing to the aid of a person injured in a car accident on some remote rural highway and allowing a surgeon to conduct an emergency operation from the anywhere in the world.
Interested in Jack’s other thoughts about the future of health care? Check out these related posts:
The Future is About to Get Personal
The Coming Health Care Revolution
Visualize the Future of Health Care
Be Still My Virtual Heart
The Future of Health Care: Part 2
The Future of Health Care
Why the Health Care Sector Should Give a Rat’s Ass
Mayo Clinic Has Got Some Game
Hospitals Need to Get Plastered
Reality Stems Stem Cell Breakthrough
The Future of Organ Sales
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Future of TV Advertising
I have written before on the future of advertising—here and here—but I want to share with you this insightful article by Erick Schonfeld of TechCrunch. It offers an intriguing vision of how the Internet and searchable video will, together, transform the future of TV advertising.
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Throw Out the Kitchen Sync
What is it about kitchen and computers? In 1969, the good folks at Honeywell, Inc constructed this hulking monstrosity and honestly thought that some people would willingly shell out $10,000 for a device the size of a kitchen table but which could only store recipes.
Fast forward to 2008 and the fine people at Crave are now drooling over this kitchen computer—the Kitchen Sync. Granted, it is much improved over Honeywell’s computer but will people really go for it?
I don’t think so. It is not that people are anti-computer in their kitchen (although, undoubtedly, some are), I just don’t believe people really crave yet another device that will further clutter up their already overly-cluttered kitchens.
When computers do become commonplace in the kitchen, my prediction is that they probably just be an extension of people’s existing laptop computers. For an idea for what the computer will look like, I refer you to this new concept computer Cario. It looks suspiciously similar to the Kitchen Sync but has far greater functionality.
Lastly, though, if you were to ask me where kitchen computing is really going it is my beleif that the computer of the future kitchen computer will simply be embedded in the kitchen counter—as this photo from the MIT Media Lab hints at. (It is cleverly dubbed “counter-intelligence.")
I’d be interested to know what your thoughts are?
Interested in what else might be in the kitchen of the future? Check out this recent post:
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Brain Neural Technology Isn’t Just Monkey Play
Below is a short one-minute video showing how a monkey in the U.S. is able to control a robot in Japan—simply by thinking about it. It is impressive technology and it has a host of future applications. In addition to allowing disabled war veterans the possibility of using their thoughts to control prosthetic limbs, it might someday also be used to help the elderly better navigate their environment.
On the slightly more sinister side, the technology might someday allow a soldier located at an army base in Kansas to control a robot in Afghanistan. (By way of analogy just consider that today young air force personnel are controlling drones over the skies in Iraq from the comfort of air conditioned centers in Omaha).
Anyways, I encourage you to check out the video:
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Add Another Future Technology to the Wall
Over the past few days, I have discussed how the future of advertising is on the wall. I have also reviewed why the future of robotics may be on the wall.
Well, at the risk of beating a dead horse, I would now like to add yet another future technology—solar power—to the wall. I recently came across this informative article on ”paint on solar power.” To my mind, it is just one more reason to add to my growing list of reasons to be bullish on solar’s long-term potential.
(Perhaps my infatuation with the wall stems from some deep seated issue relating to my incessant listening of Pink Floyd’s classic hit album, The Wall, during my youth ... who knows.)
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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A Look Back at the Future
Predicting the future can be a dangerous proposition. This is especially true when you have the audacity to create a video projecting what the future might look like—such as these intrepid designers did back in 1930 when they envisioned what “Eve” would be wearing in the year 2000. (Actually, some of their predictions looked a lot like some of the clothes I saw in the 1980’s.)
On a slightly more serious note, I’d encourage you to check this recent post entitled ”Yeah, But He Didn’t Predict the iPhone, Did He?” from the fine folks at TechCrunch. In it, Michael Arrington profiles this amazing article written by James Berry in 1968. The name of the article is 40 Years in the Future.
Arrington claims Berry “had a few things almost right.” If you read the article, however, Berry wasn’t so much wrong in his predictions as he was just a decade or so off in some of his estimates.
Arrington claims Berry’s biggest mistake was this parapraph: ”Medical research has guaranteed that most babies born in the 21st century will live long and healthy lives. Heart disease has virtually been eliminated by drugs and diet. If hearts or other major organs do give trouble, they can be replaced with artificial organs.”
From my perspective, you must first remember that we are still early in the 21st century. My guess is that most babies born in this century will live long and healthy lives. I also believe Berry will also be shown to be correct about heart disease being eliminated as well as his prediction about artificial organs.
If you have the time to read Berry’s complete article you’ll see that he nailed the microwave oven; “computers handling travel reservations,’ and “TV screens covering an entire wall.” Moreover, his predictions about robots, diagnostic technology and self-cleaning materials are just now coming true.
Simply because Berry thought we would be vacationing under the sea in the year 2008 is no reason to belittle an otherwise amazing article.
Interested in other future-related posts? Check out these recent posts:
The Future is Cheap
A Race For Our Future
Insuring Our Future
The Future of Advertising is On the Wall
The Future of Food Innovation
The Future of Rural Health Care
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Future is Cheap
With oil over a $100 a barrel and some analysts predicting it’ll go as high as $300, it is easy to think that the future will be more expensive than today. I, however, have a decidedly different take on the future, I believe it is going to be cheap—very cheap.
For example, today’s Wall Street Journal is reporting that there is already a price war breaking out in the nascent space-tourism business. You might recall that Charles Simonyi and Iranian-billionaire, Anousheh Ansari, both flew into space in 2007 for an estimated $23 million. Now XCOR Areospace is hoping to fly passengers into space for a mere $100,000. As space flight technology continues to improve and the industry achieves some economies of scale that figure should drop even more.
On another front, Applied Bioscience recently reported that it sequenced the genome of a Nigerian man for $60,000. It was only a few years ago that Craig Venter sequenced his genome at a cost of $70 million and, last year, James Watson spent $2 million sequencing his genome. In the not-so-distant future, there is an excellent chance we will all have our genomes sequenced for less than $1000.
I have also written before about nanotechnology’s ability to transform the diamond industry. If company’s such as Apollo Diamond and Gemesis are already growing two-carat diamonds for less than $100, it is not hard to envision how the price of diamonds might continue to drop as ever more equipment comes online and as the public begins to better understand the environmental and humanitarian benefits of man-made diamonds. (To wit, the earth is not being ripped up and no human labor is exploited in the creation of synthetic diamonds.)
Lastly, and on a slightly more practical note, I’d like to bring to your attention this article from TechCrunch. It profiles Redfin a new real-estate company that is cutting out the real estate agent. The article reports that, on average, the company is saving home buyers in Seattle and San Francisco over $15,000.
If you’re building a new home, don’t despair because you could also see your costs drop in the future—especially if robotic technology such as this plays out and robots are able to build homes. (I especially like this quote from Dr. Behrokh Khoshnevis, who is helping to develop the robotic technology: “Your shoes, clothes and car are already made automatically, but your house is built by hand and it doesn’t make sense.")
I agree—it doesn’t make sense—and as technology continues to progress on an accelerating basis and advances in nanotechnology, robotics and information sciences continue to squeeze out market inefficiencies, the prices of a great many products should drop substantially.
Interested in other future-related posts? Check out these recent posts:
A Race For Our Future
Insuring Our Future
The Future of Advertising is On the Wall
The Future of Food Innovation
The Future of Rural Health Care
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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A Glimpse into the Future of Regenerative Medicine
I am not a big fan of the nightly news. Truth be told, I don’t watch it all because what the networks believe constitutes “news” is usually just mindless dribble. Therefore, I was pleasantly surprised when I came across this informative 4-minute piece on regenerative medicine—the re-growing of human limbs.
(Note: You’ll have to suffer through a 30-second “Mr. Clean” commercial, but the rest of the video is well worth it. On a side note, in the future—thanks to new self-cleaning nanomaterials—products such as Mr. Clean could be rendered obsolete).
Now just imagine where society will be in 2018 after ten years of continuing accelerating advances in nanotechnology, biotechnology and stem cell research?
Interested in other glimpses into the future of health care? Check out these past posts:
The Future is About to Get Personal
The Coming Health Care Revolution
Visualize the Future of Health Care
Be Still My Virtual Heart
The Future of Health Care: Part 2
The Future of Health Care
Why the Health Care Sector Should Give a Rat’s Ass
Mayo Clinic Has Got Some Game
Hospitals Need to Get Plastered
Reality Stems Stem Cell Breakthrough
The Future of Organ Sales
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Exponential Educator
Few people would disagree that the state of education in America is in need of improvement. Unfortunately, all too often the debate for fixing the problem centers on stale old nostrums, including paying teachers more money and making class sizes smaller. Rarely, do people discuss how emerging technologies have the potential to enrich the educational experience for students and teachers alike.
A number of recent articles help paint a different and exciting picture of the future state of education. The first was reported in Physorg.com and it discusses how scientists are using virtual reality goggles to study out-of-body experiences. Now, out-of-body experiences aren’t something I would yet recommend teaching young students about, but what the study does indicate is that virtual reality technology might soon be used to help “train people to do delicate ‘teleoperating’ tasks, such as performing surgeries remotely.”
If the technology can be used to help doctors learn how to perform surgery remote, there are surely other educational applications it can also be used for, including studying human anatomy in a biology class. Why it can even be used to teach such topics as history.
The second article was an editorial by Michael Granof in the New York Times addressing the insanity of how the market for college textbooks currently exploits students. Rather than having students shell out between $100-$150 for a textbook; Granof proposes that schools and universities instead license the intellectual content of the material. He makes a compelling case and when one further considers how Amazon’s new electronic book might re-kindle education, my prediction is that the educational community will move in this direction quickly.
The third item comes compliments of CNET. It is a piece entitled, ”Is the digital pen mightier?,” and it discusses how digital pens are getting exponential better. The technology might not yet be ready for mainstream use but its time is coming.
One place where such technologies as virtual reality, Kindle and digital pens might find a home is at the self-proclaimed ”College of the Future,” which is now being built in a suburb of Minneapolis, Minnesota. What I like about the company’s plan is that rather than making the student “go to the education,” its business model is predicated on the innovative idea that the education—whether it is from the University of Minnesota, Harvard or somewhere across the globe—will come to the student.
Of course, in the future, as I said in this piece, I don’t believe there will be a strong need for physical buildings to help facilitate learning; but such institutions will continue to provide young students an important place to interact with their peers in a social setting.
Interested in other future-related ideas about education? Check out these past articles:
The Future of Education is Now
The Future of Education: Is it About to Be Rekindled?
The Future of College
What Language Will the Future Speak?
Do the Impossible: A Case Study
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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A Race for Our Future
A few years back, I came across a quote that has really stuck with me: ”You can’t incrementalize your way into the future.” With this quote in mind, I’d invite you to read this short article from Popular Mechanics discussing the new X-Prize to create an automobile that achieves 100 miles-per-gallon or more—and can be mass produced.
What I like about the contest is that it is not trying to “incrementalize” the automobile industry into the future. In other words, the sponsors of the contest are not looking for a crappy 5 or 10 mile improvement in MPG performance from the automotive industry. They are looking for a 4X improvement.
I’m optimistic that the contest will succeed and that within a decade’s time many of us will be able to purchase a safe, stylish and comfortable car that can run more than a 100 miles on a single gallon of fuel. This is because by freeing researchers, scientists, hobbyists and tinkers from the constraints and paradigms that have so far mired the automotive industry in a century of un-innovative thinking; the sponsors have provided inventors a sufficient financial incentive—in the form of a $10 million prize—to approach the issue from a completely fresh perspective.
As an analogy consider the following: If you asked a high jumper to improve his jump by 5 to 10%, he would probably focus only improving his leg strength—so he could jump higher. If, however, you told him the goal was to “jump as high as possible” and that he would be rewarded for reaching the highest level, he would llikely look at a whole new set of tools with which to achieve the goal. To keep the analogy simple, he might consider using a pole vault—an advance which would effectively double the height he could jump.
In this same way, the X Prize is providing people sufficient motivation to think differently about the issue of fuel-efficiency and the result won’t be an incremental improvement—it’ll be an exponential increase.
As Peter Diamandis, the founder of the X Prize, says at the end of this five-minute video profiling some of the leading contenders for the prize, “this is a race for our future.”
It is, indeed, and the contest offers further evidence that we won’t be incrementalizing our way into the future.
Interested in other ways that prize might impact the future? Check out these old articles:
Money makes the World Go Round
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Develop a Future Bias
In my new book, Jump the Curve, I make the case that one strategy for “jumping the curve” and helping organizations innovate into the future is to “develop a future bias.”
A future bias is the opposite of “hindsight bias” and hindsight bias is, quite simply, the idea that after an event occurs most people take credit for believing that the idea was pre-ordained and that they knew it would happen along. For instance, by 1920, most citizens claimed they knew that man would “always” fly.
Unfortunately, this isn’t true. Most people were completely blind-sided by human flight. Lord Kelvin, the world’s most renowned scientist claimed in 1899 that “Heavier than air machines are impossible,” and no less an authority than the New York Times wrote in an editorial in December 1903—just two weeks before the Wright Brother’s historic first flight—that human flight would not be achievable for “1 to 10 million years.” My guess is that if a poll had been commissioned at the beginning of the turn of the 20th century the overwhelming consensus among the American public would have subscribed to similar opinions or, alternatively, something along the lines of “If God had intended man to fly, He would have given him wings.”
In the future, as a result of exponential advances in technology, many things that sound impossible today are, in fact, not only going to be possible they are going to be commonplace. Therefore, in order to embrace this future, it will be necessary to think exponentially—and not linearly—about the future. As Ray Kurzweil says in his book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, in the 21st century humanity will experience the equivalent of 20,000 years of change (using the 20th century’s rate of change). What he is trying to do—in an indirect way—is to get people to develop a future bias.
I recently came across this photo to the right on Digg.com which shows the world as it is expected to look in 250 million years. I think it offers a wonderful metaphor for thinking about tomorrow’s world because tomorrow will look radically different from today. Therefore, one of the first steps a leader must take in order to prepare him or herself to lead an organization into the future, is to develop a future bias. To do so, it first helps if that leader can envision a world that will look radically different. Therfore, when thinking about the future, I would encourage you to keep the above picture always in mind.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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There Will Also Be Robots on the Wall in the Future
I know I just wrote a post about the future of advertising being “on the wall,” but it is increasingly clear to me that there is going to be something else on our walls in the not-so-distant future—robots. Check out this new video from New Scientist:
The robot is slow and inflexible but it will improve. You might recall that just a few years ago Boston Dynamic’s Big Dog robot couldn’t even climb a six-inch curb. But as we saw in this impressive video BigDog has made some dramatic strides in the last two years and I predict that wall-climbing robots will see a similar amount of progress in the near future.
Interested in some other future-related posts about robots? Check out these recent posts:
Will Robots Have Tails?
Is the Future of an ATV a Robot
The Robot Will See You Now
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Future of Advertising is on the Wall
A few months back, I had a posting on the future of advertising. It contains a couple of interesting videos, including this one from E-Ink:
Recently, thanks to my friends at FutureBlogger, this video from a small Australian company, Ozibadge, was brought to my attention.
At the present time, many of the ads seem cheap and gimmicky but, remember, as OLED technology, flexible electronics and Media Wall technology continue to improve they are only going to get better—exponentially better.
From this perspective, my guess then is that scenes similar to ones depicted in the 2002 science fiction movie, Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.” title="Minority Report">Minority Report, won’t take place in the year 2050—they are likely to be commonplace as early as 2012.
The future of advertsing is almost literally “written on the wall” ... and it is coming faster than most people expect.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Insuring the Future
A few weeks back as I was flying all across the country from Hawaii to Wichita to Atlanta giving presentations on nanotechnology, genomics and robotics to a variety of different industry associations, I had the opportunity to read Peter Bernstein’s best-selling book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.
Although it was written in 1996, I highly recommend it for anyone seriously interested in contemplating the future. This is because—for better or worse—the future will largely be determined by the insurance industry’s ability to understand—and thus underwrite—the future of various technologies.
For example, while I am personally optimistic about nanotechnology’s ability to create everything from scratch-resistant car panels to tailor-made drug delivery vehicles capable of killing cancer cells at an early stage, these products will not be commercially mass-produced until the insurance industry understands the environmental and health-related risks associated with new nanomaterials and nanoparticles.
Similarly, RFID (radio frequency identification) technology and nanosensors have the ability to create a host of wonderful applications. But until the insurance industry can adequately assess the potential dangers of how prolonged exposure to wireless technologies might impact people, the RFID industry could advance at a much slower pace than many people (including industry experts) expect.
The same is true for the rapidly emerging fields of synthetic biology and robotics. I have written before about the amazing potential of each to transform the energy, agriculture and automotive industries, but these things won’t happen until regulators and insurance professionals are comfortable insuring these technologies. For instance, while Craig Venter (a leader in the field of synthetic biology) is quick to dismiss the potential of some new artificial life form or “designer bacteria” escaping from his laboratory and wreaking havoc on an unsuspecting public, I’m not as confident the insurance industry will be as quick to dismiss the risk.
The same is true with robotics. While it is easy to forecast that robotics will grow into a $50 billion industry within the decade—as Bill Gates has done—the figure could drop to a fraction of that amount if an iRobot PackBot goes haywire over in Iraq and inadvertently kills six soldiers or if a self-driven robotic car created by General Motors runs over a pedestrian.
Such events often cast a new—and less flattering light—on a promising new technology and often bring the industry (and its future hopes) into the cross-sights of the legal profession. As a historical example recall that at the beginning of the 20th century asbestos was hailed as a wonder material for its amazing insulating and fire-retardancy properties. Today, we hold a decidedly different—and less positive—view of asbestos.
It is not my contention that the insurance industry will slow down all emerging technologies. In fact, in some instances, just the opposite might occur—the industry might facilitate the adoption of certain new technological advances.
For example, in spite of genomics incredible potential to violently disrupt the insurance industry’s business model of pooling risk, it is possible the insurance industry will facilitate the adoption of genetic testing by mandating that patients for certain diseases be genetically tested prior to the administration of any new drug in order to make sure that that drug will work effectively on the patient.
The same holds true for RFID technology. It could soon be determined that the cost of embedding sensors and RFID chips into bridges, cars, buildings and a host of other products greatly enhances safety and performance. If so, regulation could work in favor to these technologies by getting them mandated for certain applications.
If it seems as though I am speaking out of both sides of my both (i.e. that the insurance industry might either hamper or help RFID and other technologies) that is because I am. As F. Scott Fitzgerald once said, “The test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two diametrically opposed ideas in your head at the same time.”
It is a concept that all people interested in the future should adopt because professionals in the insurance industry are schooled in this very idea and they calculate not just the benefits of future technologies but also its potential risks and costs. And where the industry comes out in these calculations will, to a large degree, determine which technologies shape our future.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Shape of Future Cars?
Thanks to my colleagues at FutureBlogger this cool, one-minute video of a prototype car was brought to my attention.
I think it highlights a few aspects that we will be seeing on cars in the near future. First, the rotatable wheels should prove handy for people living in urban environments where parking is at a premium—it will allow drivers to easily navigate into tight spots. Second, the spacious atmosphere of the cab compartment is a trend that we should also see more of in the near future. (I think this will be especially true if advances in robotics and embedded sensor networks combined to create areas where self-driving vehicles are a reality. If people are freed from the burden of driving they might want more space to work or entertain guests while they are being chaffeured from one location to another.)
One aspect that is not a winner is the way the door opens—it takes up too much space. Given the curved nature of the vehicle, it seems that a curved door could be constructed that slightly lifts the door (perhaps using some shape-shifting material as I showed in this post) and then slides it over the exterior of the vehicle.
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Dude, Where’s My Flying Car?
To Think Like a Child: Get on a Trike
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Will Future Robots Have Tails?
Yesterday, I showed this cool video of Boston Dynamic’s very impressive BigDog robot. What was really impressive about the robot was its ability—if it was kicked or if it slipped on ice—to balance itself in real-time.
Well, it now appears that future robots might be able to improve upon this performance by simply adding a tail. According to this informative article in ScienceDaily scientists are now studying how the gecko uses its tail to keep its balance.
In addition to giving robots better balance it is thought that the geckos tail might provide the inspiration to also help unmanned aerial vehicles manuever more effectively in the air and assist astronauts manuever more effectively in space.
Looking for more bits of inspiration from the animal kingdom? Check out these past posts:
Bettle Biomimickry
A Little More Bio-inspiration
Follow the Ants
To Survive ... Change Diets
Swarm Intelligence Gets Even Smarter
Biomimickry at its Best
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Future of Food Innovation
Yesterday, in the Wall Street Journal, there was an interesting article on Steve Demos—the man who brought soy milk into millions of homes. The article primarily concentrated on Demos’ latest product—GoodBelly, which is a probotic product that uses bacteria to aid consumers digestion.
The aspect of the article that caught my attention, however, was Demos’ response to the question of “Where is the future competitive advantage for food companies?” His answer was simple: “It’s going to be with science.”
Let me repeat that—it’s going to be with science. It is critical that every food company embrace this notion very soon. If they don’t, they will risk becoming irrelevant.
Over the past few months, I have discussed how nanotechnology will revolutionize the food industry and I recently discussed how the field of genomics will impact the agricultural sector, but for a quick overview of where the food industry is headed I would encourage interested parties to read this article entitled ”Your Burger on Biotech.” For folks interested in a slightly more in-depth look into the future of food are encouraged to read this Popular Science article called ”The Science of Yummy.”
Lastly, as further proof of food companies need to get serious about embracing science, I’d recommend this short but informative article discussing how Nestle is applying quantum mechanics to optimize food taste, texture and nutrition.
The bottom-line is that if food companies want to innovate in the future they will need to understand nanotechnology, genomics, biotechnology, synthetic biology and, yes, even quantum mechanics.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Future of Rural Health Care
Earlier this month I gave a presentation to the Kansas Hospital Association on the topic of “the future of rural health care.” In my presentation, I discussed how the cellphone will become an increasingly important tool in helping patients diagnose certain diseases quicker and more accurately. (I briefly touch on this theme in this old post.)
What I did not discuss was how the cellphone might also help health care workers in remote, rural areas take high-resolution images of a patient’s blood cells using a cellphone camera and then transmit those photos to experts at medical centers.
As this informative article from today’s Technology Review discusses, however, this vision is now on the verge of being achieved thanks to the innovative work of researchers at the University of California.
When thinking about the potential of this technology there are two things to keep in mind. First, the prototype equipment was built for $75 using off-the-shelf components—so it is not expensive. Secondly, the resolution on higher-end cellphones is sufficient for capturing the details needed to identify blood cells and cancer cells. In other words, the technology is good enough to be implemented now. (One immediate application might be to help Leukemia patients in remote areas transmit images for white blood cell counts).
Longer-term, I would remind rural health care professional that the resolution on next generation cellphones is only going to get better. When one then further considers the advances in bandwidth capability which will be achieved through programs such as Internet2, it will soon become possible to transmit even more detailed health care information in the future.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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1 Million New Alzheimer Patients in 2050: Forget It!
Luckily I don’t have a loved one who suffers from Alzheimer’s. I do, however, have a few friends who aren’t so lucky and I know how devastating the disease can be for both victims and their families.
Still, I cringed when I saw this recent report suggesting that there will be 1 million new Alzheimer’s victims in the year 2050. It is not my intention to minimize the horrible aspects of this disease but reports such as this are simply irresponsible because they merely extrapolate current trends out into the future.
The problem with this approach is that the year 2050 will be nothing like today. No one in their right mind can realistically predict out to the year 2050. This is especially true given the exponential amount of progress being made in a variety of medical and health care-related fields. The converse, though, is not true. History demonstrates that progress in most fields (with the possible exception of the internal combustion engine) is rarely static. Therefore, it is my belief that Alzheimer’s—as well as a host of other age-related diseases and illinesses—will be addressed by the year 2050 (if not much sooner).
Not surprisingly, though, the report was funded by the Alzheimer’s Association which has a vested interested in generating publicity for its cause and, apparently, doesn’t mind scaring the hell out the public in order to generate that attention.
Now, I don’t disagree with the Association’s call for the federal government to invest more in Alzheimer’s research in the short-term, but I am also of the opinion that millions of Baby Boomers will provide innovative pharmaceutical companies and entrepreneurs the financial incentive neccessary to address this issue.
I’m so convinced of the correctness of my position that in the spirit of friendly competition, I’m willing to make a $1000 wager with an official at the Alzheimer’s Association to this affect: In the year 2050 there will be fewer cases of Alzheimer than there are today. (For the record, we can both invest $1000 in an interest bearing account until 2050 and if neither party is still alive at that time the winner’s heir will receive the money.)
P.S. If the $2000 is invested in an account that earns 6% interest, the $2000 will grow to $23,000 by 2050. If the account achieves a 10% rate of return, the total will approach $109,000.)
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Futurists Say the Dumbest Things
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Is the Future of the ATV a Robot?
If a picture is worth a thousand words, a video is worth a million. Check out this short 3 minute video from robotics manufacturer, Boston Dynamics. It is especially interesting to see how the robot instantly reacts when it is pushed or when it hits a patch of ice.
As I like to say, if you want to want to “ jump the curve” don’t just think about where robotic technology is today ... just imagine where it’ll be after ten more years of near exponential advances in materials, sensors, and computers. At a minium, I believe the future of All-Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) will no longer be limited to having four-wheels—I think they’ll be more robotic in nature.
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Have the Houston Rockets Jumped the Curve?
The Houston Rockets have now won 22 straight basketball games—it is one of the longest such steaks in professional basketball history and is no small feat. However, as readers of my new book know, I predicted this success and cited it because it was—and is—an excellent example of how companies can innovatively use algorithms to improve their existing business.
Here is the passage from the book (which, for the record was written in mid-2007—long before this steak began):
“I am going to go out on a limb and predict that the 2008 NBA champions will be the Houston Rockets. I don’t do this on the basis of any psychic ability. Nor do I do it out of loyalty for the Rockets--I’m a fan of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Instead it is because the Rockets’ new management team is subjecting its entire roster to the power of quantitative analysis.
Quantitative analysis in professional sports is nothing new. It was the subject of Michael Lewis’s best-selling book, Moneyball, and has been cited by baseball experts as the reason why the Oakland A’s, in spite of having one of the lowest payrolls in professional baseball, are consistently among the league’s better teams.
Quantitative analysis is even credited with helping the 2004 Boston Red Sox break the Curse of the Bambino and end its eighty-six-year-old quest to win the World Series. Both teams’ general managers, Oakland’s Billy Beane and Boston’s Theo Epstein, admit to regularly using quantitative analysis to determine everything from how a trade for a particular player will impact the team’s on-field performance to where a certain player should be inserted in the batting rotation on any given day.
Translating baseball’s more linear nature--where it is relatively straightforward to isolate a player’s individual performance by discerning the difference between, say, a single and a home run--is far easier than figuring out the relative value of a basketball player. This is due to the complex ways in which a basketball team’s five players interact with one another while on the court. For instance, is a basket more valuable than the assist that made it possible? What about the value of a rebound as opposed to a blocked shot? And which has more impact on a game’s outcome, a player’s ability to steal two passes a game or his skill in consistently setting good picks?
These have been vexing questions, but economists have now developed an algorithm to help measure a player’s “wins produced” for his team, and the Rocket’s general-manager-in-waiting, Daryl Morey*, (who will officially take the reins as GM at the beginning of the 2007-08 season), has an MBA from MIT’s Sloan School of Management and is applying these algorithms to select the players he believes will best help his team win.
To this end, one of the reasons the Rockets signed former Duke standout Shane Battier had little to do with his 10.1 points per game average or his high shooting percentage (.488); it had more to do with his rebounds per game, his dramatic defensive ability, and his skill at quickly moving the ball around to his open teammates.
Time will tell if my prediction about the Houston Rockets will pan out, but the net effect of this emphasis on algorithms is that it is helping a number of businesses make better decisions today. For instance, Shell Oil is using complicated mathematical algorithms to help determine where to drill for oil, and it likely played a leading role in assisting Chevron scientists locate that company’s new massive Jack2 oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico in the fall of 2006. And with Google Trends, businesses of all sizes can analyze and better understand how, where, and by whom its products are being used.”
(*Note: In the first edition of the book, I incorrectly listed Carroll Dawson as the new General Manager. For the record, he was the old, outgoing GM).
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Our Bright Future
At my core, I’m a techno-optimist—I sincerely believe that technology will address many of society’s most pressing issues. This is especially true in the field of energy. I written before about why I’m bullish on solar’s long-term potential and this recent article describing the new Masdar Headquarters in Abu Dhabi now provides me further reason to be optimistic. (The picture to the right is what the solar roof will look like and it is expected to generate more energy than the building will use. In other words, it will be positive-net energy).
I understand that it is only one building and that the structure is not yet even built, but in the future—given the continued advances being made in the fields of BIPV (building integrated phtovoltaics) and nanotechnology—I believe it will become increasingly common for most new buildings to produce more energy than they use.
This, of course, won’t solve all the world’s energy problems but it is a great start.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Prepare Your Kids (and Yourself) for the Future
As a parent, I see preparing my children for the future as my main responsibility. To do this job, I employ a lot of tactics: I encourage them to play; I try to foster their creativity; and I also allow them to fail.
With this in mind, I’d invite you to watch this 9-minute video by Gever Tulley entitled “5 Dangerous Ideas for Kids.” Most of the lessons might seem counter-intuitive—especially in today’s hyper-cautious environment whereby we try to protect our kids from every possible danger—but the logic behind each idea is solid.
If you don’t have the time to watch the video, the five ideas (actually there are six) are:
1. Play with Fire
2. Own a Pocket Knife
3. Throw a Spear
4. Deconstruct Appliances
5. Break the Digital Management Copyright Act
6. Drive a Car
The beauty of all of these lessons (with the exception of the sixth) is that they are also applicable to adults who are trying to better prepare themselves for the future. (Note: If you’re an adult and you’re looking for a replacement for the sixth idea, I’d suggest that you allow a robot to drive the car for you.)
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Voiceless Communication: It’s Coming and It Will Augment Human Intelligence
This is one of the cooler videos I have seen in some time. I strongly encourage you to take the 3.5 minutes necessary to watch it because it’ll offer you a powerful glimpse into the future:
Remember, although the system of translating neurological activity into speech is relatively slow and can only translate about 150 words today, the technology is only going to get better—exponentially better!
In the near term, the technology will prove extremely beneficial for patients with ALS and, in the mid-term, it may mean that you will no longer have to suffer through listening to the inane conversation of the guy sitting next to you on the plane.
However, I’d encourage you to “jump the curve” and focus on the last part of the video where Michael Callahan of Ambient talks about using the technology to augment human intelligence. It is plausible that in the future that as a result of related technology you will just think of a question and a smart device—which may be worn around your neck or wrist or, quite possibly, implanted in your brain—will simply retrieve the answer from the Internet and translate it back to you.
One question we will need to ask ourselves, therefore, is whether children should be able to use such technology when taking the SAT test. (Of course, in the future, the notion of college itself is likely to radically change as a result of other emerging technologies so the SAT could very well become irrelevant.)
Interested in some other implausible ideas about the future? Check some of these past posts:
The Robot Will See You Now
Operate on Yourself
57 Years is Now 41 Days
Death’s Slow Death
Self-Driving Cars
Do the Impossible
Enlarge Our Minds to a Space Elevator
Pong & The Future of the President’s Brain
Could You Really Love a Robot?
Do the Impossible: A Case Study
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Walk the Escalator with a New Kind of Search
In my new book, Jump the Curve, I discuss the many benefits of collaboration. I also emphasize how important it is for businesses to take advantage of existing technologies. Well, there is now a new tool, dubbed SearchTogether, that helps groups conduct Internet searches more effectively. The advantage of the technology is that people aren’t wasting valuable time replicating other peoples efforts. (Source: Technology Review: ”Searching as a Team”).
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Is It a Robot … If You Don’t Know It’s a Robot?
Yesterday, in this post, I listed three reasons why I felt the prospect for “robotic therapists” was good. I am now even more confident of this prediction because of this fascinating article from EE Times which suggests that within a few years a “synthetic character”—based on artifical intelligence—will be able to pass the Turing Test. (An artifical intelligence agent will be deemed to have passed the “test” when a human can’t tell he or she is conversing with a computer.)
This, then, brings me back to why I think robotic therapists will eventually be a reality. If people can’t tell whether they are speaking with a real person or a robot—and the advice they are receiving is effective—will it matter if the therapist is real or not?
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Robot Will See You Now
Thanks to my friends at Future Scanner, this fascinating article by Roland Piquepaille at ZDNet.com about MindMentor—the first robot psychologist—was brought to my attention.
At the end of his post, Piquepaille asks an intriguing question: Would you trust a computer algorithm to counsel you about a psychological problem?
In spite of what people might tell you, my prediction is that the most common answer in the future will be “yes.”
Here’s why. First, algorithms are only going to get better. According to the article, MindMentor already solves problems for 47% of its customers’ issues in a one-hour session. As a result of exponential advances in computer processing power and evolutionary algorithms (which learn how to improve themselves on a continual basis), this number will only increase in the future. To understand how advanced such algoithms already are today, I’d encourage you to read this recent New York Times article or simply visit Jenn—Alaska Airlines sophisticated avatar. (The avatar is in the upper right hand corner).
Second, as hard as it is to imagine, some people are actually more comfortable talking with a computer than they are a real person. Technologies such as MindMentor will find a very receptive market among this population. Along these lines, I also think kids who either come from troubled families—or teenagers who simply have a hard time speaking with their parents—might also use the technology.
Finally, I am convinced that over time people will begin to think of robots as people. I recently bought the new robotic toy, Pleo, for my kids and they already treat it as though it were a pet. As robots move into hospitals, nursing homes and, eventually, our homes, I think it is only natural that we will rely on these robots to do things—such as provide us with psychological counsel—which would have once been unimagineable.
As readers of my new book, Jump the Curve, know I’m fond of using historical analogies to think about the future. So try this one on for size: In 1935, at the height of the Depression, it would have unthinkable to most people that in the year 2008 Americans would spend $40 billion a year on pets—including such things as jewerly, teeth whiteners, pet insurance and, yes, even sessions with a pet psychologist.
My point is that behavior which would have once seemed inconceivable often has a way of becoming commonplace. Therefore, I see no reason why we won’t trust our pets—and ourselves—to a robotic therapist in the future. Hell, we might even be confortable enough to send our robots to see fellow robots for therapy. (On a slightly different note, apparently the Catholic Church is already concerning itself with future sins. Perhaps, because the Church is having a difficult time finding priests, it should consider turning over the task of hearing confessionals of these “future sins” to a robot.)
Interested in some other implausible ideas about the future? Check some of these past posts:
Operate on Yourself
57 Years is Now 41 Days
Death’s Slow Death
Self-Driving Cars
Do the Impossible
Enlarge Our Minds to a Space Elevator
Pong & The Future of the President’s Brain
Could You Really Love a Robot?
Do the Impossible: A Case Study
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Using Humor to Think About the Future
I’m a big fan of the The Onion, and every so often it will have a hilarious video clip which should prompt us all to think about where the future is headed. I have written before the future of organ sales, but if society does’t get serious about developing the enabling technologies to produce or “grow” artificial organs we could be relegated to this:
Anonymous Philanthropist Donates 200 Human Kidneys To Hospital
Interested in another Onion-like look into the future? Check out this old post about flying cars:
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Future of the Entertainment Room
There is an informative article on the future of 3-D movies on the Internet today. If you’re interested in the future of entertainment, I’d encourage you to read it. But, from my perspective, here’s the operative sentence—which comes from Dreamworks CEO Jeffery Katzenberg: “It is nothing less than the greatest innovation that has happened for all of us in the movie business since the advent of color 70 years ago.”
I suspect that this might be true, but the movie theaters’ advantage will be short lived. Why? Because my guess is that just as many people have added an “entertainment room” to their homes over the past 10-15 years, many of these same people will soon begin remodelling their entertainment rooms in order to recreate the 3-D experience in the comfort of their own homes.
In addition to being a boon for builders and home remodelers, innovative video game manufacturers will also benefit from the trend by continuing to develop ever more immersive games which take advantage of these rooms.
Longer-term, the educational community will eventually realize the advantage of these rooms as well. For example, just imagine explaining to a young children how red blood cells flow through the body by taking them on a simulated ride through the human body.
It is just a matter of time before these things become commonplace. And, as further proof of our enhanced digital future, I submit this recent article from ComputerWorld which predicts that the amount of electronic data created and stored will grow 10 times in the next three years!
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Beetle Biomimickry
As regular readers know, I am fond of looking to the natural world for hints of where the future might be headed. To this end, I’d like to bring to your attention this wonderful article about the Hercules Beetle. Amazingly, the Hercules Beetle can carry up to 850 its own weight.
Alas, this post is not about mankind developing a device capable of lifting 850-times its weight (although I must admit that that would be pretty cool.) Rather, the Hercules Beetle has another interesting feature—its outer shell turns from green to black in humid environments. The reason this is important is because today there is no shortage of products—especially food stuffs—which can be damaged by humidity. One way to ensure that these products have not been compromised would be to create a new type of packaging that demonstrates the same property. Alternatively, sensors could be designed on the same basis and employed in food processing plants to monitor the moisture level.
My guess is that it is only a matter of a few years before “smart” packaging and sensors are a commercial reality
Looking for more bits of inspiration from the animal kingdom? Check out these past posts:
A Little More Bio-inspiration
Follow the Ants
To Survive ... Change Diets
Swarm Intelligence Gets Even Smarter
Biomimickry at its Best
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Science Fiction Becomes Science Fact
In the 1966 hit movie “Fantastic Voyage,” starring Raquel Welch, a team of agents is shrunk down to microscopic size in order to save a scientist from a deadly blood clot. Well, in the category of “Yesterday’s science fiction is today’s science fact,” a scientist has now created a molecular device that is only 17 molecules—or just two-billionths of a meter long—and can be controlled by external forces.
In theory this means that it is now within the realm of possibility that nanoscale devices will be able to stream through our bodies in the not-so-distant future clearing our clogged arteries and killing cancer cells before they can grow into life-threatening tumors.
The only negative is that the future nanobots aren’t expected to look nearly as good as Raquel Welch.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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What Goes Up Must Come Down … Or Does It?
When thinking about the future, it helps to think counter-intuitively. (This is one reason why I devote an entire chapter to this idea in my new book, Jump the Curve.)
As a wonderful example of this idea, I’d like to share with you this recent article about DARPA’s plan to create an aircraft that can stay aloft for five years.
If the advantage of such an aircraft is not immediately apparent to you, just consider how much money the U.S. military currently spends on both staffing airbases around the world and maintaining the planes on those bases. While I don’t have exact figures, the budget is in the billions of dollars.
If, however, the military can construct airplanes which could fly for years on end and monitor enemy activity from 65,000 feet above Iraq, Afghanistan, and North Korea the savings could be huge.
Time will tell whether the DARPA project will be successful but, to my mind, it is an excellent eample of “jumping the curve.” As a former naval officer who had to make a six-month deployment to the Mediterranean my only regret is that the aircraft will be unmanned—I’d love to see some Air Force pukes finally have to leave their cushy bases and make extended deployments like the rest of us.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Future of the Automobile
Last week I gave a keynote presentation on “Future Trends” to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association. Since many of these trends are directly applicable to the automobile industry, I thought I would draw up a list of ten trends I see influencing the automobile industry over the next five to ten years.
Trend #1: Smart Materials
It has been said that a picture is worth a thousand words. I agree and so if you want to see the future of “smart materials,” I’d strongly encourage you to watch this short video about General Motor’s work in the field.
Within the next few years a number of cars will possess body parts—such as air dams and handles—made out of shape memory alloys. Self-cleaning glass and scratch-resistant panels will also become the norm. Slightly longer term, self-healing rubber -- such as BASF is developing—will be incorporated into cars.
Trend #2: Nanotechnology
To a large degree it is advances in nanotechnology which are enabling many of the aforementioned products, but nanotechnology will also lead to the creation of new and more effective catalysts which will reduce the amount of platinum and palladium automobile manufacturers use. Nanoparticles will also be used to improve fuel efficiency. In fact, Oxonica is already testing its nanoparticles on buses in England (where they have demonstrated a 4.3% in fuel efficiency), and new nanocoatings such as Ecology Coatings is developing will reduce both the amount of material and energy OEMs use to coat existing auto parts.
Trend #3: Better Batteries
Again, thanks to advances in nanotechnology (this time in the form of new nanomaterials and silicon nanowires), a number of manufacturers are producing extraordinary leaps in battery technology. Companies such as EEStor, A123 Systems and Altair Nanotechnologies should all be closely monitored because they could soon be building batteries capable of powering a car for 300 to 400 miles. (As an added benefit, they might need only minutes to recharge.)
Trend #4: Web 2.0
The term “Web 2.0” is trendy to be sure but it is impacting the automobile industry today. Companies like BMW are already using wikis and exploiting the open-source movement in order to reach out to the “wisdom of crowds” and speed up product innovation. (For more information, visit BMW’s Virtual Innovation Center.)
Beyond that, however, new sites such as Dash Express and IntelliOne are using electronic information to improve the driving experience. This is not going to change. In fact, it will only become more pronounced in the near future as more and more information streams onto the Internet.
Trend #5: Flexible Electronics
Soon information and directions will be embedded directly into windshields. The picture to the right says it all.
Trend #6: Robotics
I have written extensively on this topic. (For more information just click here, here or here.) But this past January, the CEO of GM, Rick Wagoner, said that “self-driving cars” are possible within a decade. If one tracks the near exponential advances in robotics, sensors, and GPS technology and then considers the success achieved at this past year’s DARPA “Urban Challenge,” this seems to be a reasonable timeframe.
More near-term, however, robotics will continue to take over some basic functions—such as parking in tight spaces. But instead of self-parking being a service that is offered only on luxury cars, it’ll soon become a standard feature on every car.
Trend #7: Biofuels and Synthetic Biology
Personally, I’m not a fan of ethanol. However, advances in the field of cellulosic ethanol and, slightly longer-term, synthetic biology; will fundamentally alter the energy equation. I still believe battery technology offers a more practical alternative to fossil fuel but, in combination with new advanced biofuels, the car of the future will be very eco-friendly.
Trend #8: Biology
That’s right biology. Many next-generation automotive designs will likely draw their inspiration straight from biology. Daimler has already studied the Boxfish to create a more aerodynamic car and I believe other engineers will continue to find even more inspiration from the natural world around us.
Trend #9: Neurotechnology
Scientists and researchers at Toyota are already studying drivers brain patterns to help keep them alert. For example, if an elderly driver is getting too distracted it will soon be possible for “smart computers” to sense this and begin shutting down superfluous features. The advantage is that driver’s reaction time will improve. (Long-term, robotics should completely take-over some driving activities. See Trend # 6)
Trend #10: Others
I know this is cheating, but since I wanted to keep the list to ten I am simply going to point out that computers, software, RFID, rapid prototype manufacturing and speech and voice recognition technology are all going to continue to improve and will impact how the car of the future is designed and operated.
For example, engineers will continue to have access to increasingly powerful supercomputers from which they will be able to create new designs. New advanced algorithms will then take these designs and further refine them into working parts, and many of the new parts will then be built to exacting tolerances due to advances in rapid prototype manufacturing. And, of course, the driver will be sure those parts are working as result of continued advances in RFID technology.
All told, these trends suggest that not only will your next car not resemble your “father’s Oldsmobile,” it won’t even look or operate much like today’s advanced self-parking, GPS-laden, hybrid SUVs.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Getting Kids to Dream Again
Last week I was in Somerset, New Jersey to give the keynote presentation at the 31st Annual New Jersey Science Convention. The name of my talk was “The Exponential Educator: How Eight Emerging Technologies Will Transform Education.” One major underlying theme of the presentation was that because of exponential advances in technology the future is going to be host to some very exciting inventions and, by openingly discussing many of these exciting possibilities with kids, teachers can get kids interested in science once again.
To this end, I think one such possibility is a flying car and recently MIT Technology Review has an informative article discussing the advances that a small start-up company, Terrafugia, is making. One of the big question marks surrounding the flying car’s development is concern over whether it will be able to keep its weight low enough. It is a major problem to be sure, but as a result of advances in lighter, stronger nanomaterials and smaller and longer lasting batteries many of these concerns will be overcome sooner rather than later. In fact, Terrafugia expects to have a prototype developed by later this year; another company, LaBiche, plans on having a flying car operational by 2009; and, SkyCar, which has been existence since the 1960’s is also closing in on the goal.
These prototypes may not work perfectly and they may not be immediate commercial successes, but their time is coming. Exponential advances in many of the flying car’s enabling technologies—better nanomaterials, more effective sensors, smarter software, etc.—are all getting better, and I am convinced that it is not a matter of if flying cars will become a reality but when! And, of course, we will all get to this future sooner if we can get kids excited about science and technology again.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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A Modern Shoestring
Billions of dollars in health care costs could be saved if only patients were more diligent in taking their prescribed drugs at the right time and in the right amount (dosage). In the future, I am of the opinion that micro-pharmacies—biocompatible devices which release drugs molecules according to a set schedule or in response to specific health conditions (i.e. low bood sugar levels)—are a real possibility. But before this future arrives, the convergence of some new emerging technologies will enable an elegant solution to this issue of non-compliance.
Last week, I described Nokia’s new flexible electronic cellphone—dubbed Morph—and explained how people might soon be wearing their phone as a bracelet. Well, yesterday, researchers at Georgia Tech described how a low-cost necklace could soon be used to increase drug compliance.
At the present time, Georgia Tech’s necklace isn’t very stylish but if you consider how technologies such as “Morph” might soon change this, it is possible to see how this new jewerly could minimize noncompliance costs.
In the near future it also could soon free people from the venerable old habit of tying a shoestring around their finger.
The Future is about to Get Personal
Does the Pharmaceutical Industry Also Need to Unlearn
The Coming Health Care Revolution
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Future Lays in Convergence
I really enjoy the website Crave because it does an excellent job of scanning the horizon in search of cool, emerging technologies such as these recent posts on a dishwashing robot and a one-wheeled motorcycle.
What I’m not so fond of is its writers tendancy to quickly dismiss such technologies. If you read the above posts on the dishwashing robot and the one-wheeled motorcycyle you’ll find that they are equally dismissive of both technologies.
This is a mistake. It is not that I disagree with either prediction, but what the authors are missing is the possibility that technologies from each of the two products might be combined to create a third—cooler and more practical—technology.
To wit, the author’s note that the dishwashing robot is boxy and clumsy. Yet in the post on the one-wheeled motorcycle they also note that it is advances in gyroscopes and sensors which allow the one-wheeled motorcycle to maintain its balance.
In the near future, these same technologies could easily be applied to robots in order to make them smaller, thinner and more maneuverable. And when this happens, what might be produced is a one-wheeled robot that can navigate in even the smallest of kitchens!
Remember, if you want to jump the curve, don’t just think of the practical utility of existing technologies—also consider how different technologies might converge to create new technologies.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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10 Tech Trends for the Near Future
Last fall, the editors at The Futurist have released their top ten forecasts for the future. I don’t agree with everything on the list, but the forecast is thought-provoking and I’d encourage interested readers to give it the once-over because the first prediction is this dozy: “The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025.”
Now, a million dollars in the future won’t hold the same cache as million dollars today due to inflation, but I’d argue that if you want to be a member of the millionaire’s club of 2025 it would behoove you to understand some of today’s trends in technology because they have the potential to either help or hinder your path to future prosperity.
With that short introduction then, I’d like to provide my personal list of top ten technology trends:
#1: Nanotechnology. I have previously expressed my opinion why I believe nanotechnology will represent a $2.6 trillion market in new products and services by 2015, but a quick review of the impressive progress many nanotech companies such as IBM, H-P, Intel, GE, Arrowhead Research and Nucryst are making due to nanotechnology offers compelling evidence that the field is ripe for explosive growth.
#2 Robotics. No less an authority that Bill Gates has indicated that the robotics will be the basis of a $50 billion industry by 2025. Add to this prediction reports that the Defense Department wants to have at least one-third of all military trucks being driven by robots by 2015 and it is clear why companies as diverse as Toyota, Oshkosh Trucks and John Deere are all investing heavily in robotics.
#3 Rapid Prototype Manufacturing. In the coming years, 3D Systems, Stratasys, Z Corporation and Desktop Factory are all hoping to radically lower the price of rapid prototype manufacturing equipment. If they are successful, it is possible that such 3-D printers—which can print out physical objects such as cups, plates and assorted spare parts—could become a household appliance as common as the dishwasher. If you’re interested in reading more about this topic, I’d encourage you to check out this past post entitled: ”3-D Printing: The Shape of Things to Come.” I would also add that researchers at Gartner recently predicted the field would experience a 100-fold increase in the coming years.
#4: Synthetic Biology: Late last year, The Guardian newspaper reported that Craig Venter, the former co-founder of Celera, could be announcing the creation of the first new artificial life form on Earth as early as this year. It is, to be sure, a development fraught with a host of societal and ethical issues, but as BP’s foray into the area suggests, it could also revolutionize the energy industry by allowing for new bacteria to be designed that can cheaply and efficiently convert agricultural products into environmentally-friendly biofuels.
#5 Cleantech: Rising oil prices, increased demand from China, and heightened concerns over global climate change are already driving up demand for renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and new biofuels. According to Cleantech Ventures Network, wind is expected to triple from $17 billion today to $60 billion in 2016; solar from $15 billion to $70 billion; and biofuels from $20 billion to $80 billion. Companies such as the China-based solar manufacturer, Suntech Power, are well-positioned to benefit from this convergence of macro-economic trends. It is just one of the reason why I think cleantech could be the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century.
#6 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID). This over-hyped technology was supposed to begin revolutionizing the world back in 2003; but, for a number of reasons, it has been slow to catch on. Last year, however, IBM announced that it would be working to implement RFID technology at Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam with the goal of being able to track 70 million pieces of luggage annually through the airport by 2018. This deal comes on the heels of news that Microsoft is also gearing up to be competitive in the RFID field, and stories of how the technology saved Dole Food’s bacon during a recent E Coli scare.
#7 Personalized Medicine. As impressive as many of today’s health care treatments are, they can still be pretty crude. For instance, many of today’s best known drugs don’t work on a select percentage of the population due to genetic factors. As a result of advances in genome sequencing, however, researchers and doctors are beginning to better understand how individuals will respond to certain drugs. If companies such as Life Science 454 and Illumina succeed in driving the cost of sequencing a person’s genome from today’s cost of $3 million to below $10,000 (which is their stated goal), personalized medicine will dramatically alter the entire healthcare sector.
#8 Algorithms. The world is now awash in data, but there is still a great deal more information that can be extracted from all of this data. To unlock these hidden nuggets, a number of companies such as Best Buy and Blockbuster are applying sophisticated algorithms to do everything from determining the odds that you will make a claim on your warranty to the possibility that you will return your next movie late. These algorithms will only get better with time.
#9 Neurotechnology. The human brain is an unbelievably complex instrument and, in spite of extraordinary progress over the past decade, there is still much we don’t know about it. Researchers are now employing fMRI equipment to study how people’s brains operate as they make complex decisions. What they are finding is that often different parts of the brain are used to make different decisions. As the technology improves improve for major retailer such as McDonald’s to fine tune their advertising messages for maximum impact.
#10 Web 2.0. The term Web 2.0 is by now a well-worn cliche, but there is good reason to believe that as computer chips, sensors and RFID tags continue to get better, smaller and cheaper these devices will be placed inside a variety of household items and throughout the external environment to store, collect and communicate information in new ways. Even more impressive will be how companies such as Google and Nokia will manage all of this information to make our lives easier. As I said in this earlier post, I think the more apt term is ”Web 2.D’Oh.”
As Yogi Berra once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” He’s right. Due to the accelerating pace of technological change it is likely that I and others will be blind-sided by technologies that haven’t even been imagined yet. Nevertheless, fear of the unknown is not a sufficient reason for inaction. I’m confident that all of the aforementioned technologies represent legitimate opportunities and if executives and managers hope to be in business tomorrow then they must track the advances occuring in these fields today.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Your Mother’s Little Helper
After flying all night from Hawaii, I arrived in Wichita this morning in time to give a presentation to the Kansas Hospital Association on the future of rural health care. Of the many trends I discussed, I strongly encouraged the members to consider how the emerging field of robotics will impact their industry. The reason I emphasized this trend is because the demographics of rural areas skew heavily toward the elderly.
With this in mind, I’d like to share this article from CNN about how the use of robotics is surging in Japan as a function of needing to address the needs of that country’s rapidly aging population.
Rural areas are already short of doctors, nurses and other skilled workers and they are likely to continue to face considerable pressure to “do more with less.” Therefore—just as in Japan—it is almost inevitable that robotics will come to play a greater role in both staffing and cleaning rural hospitals as well as taking care of many of the elderly patients in the years ahead.
To borrow a phrase from the Rolling Stone’s, in the future your elderly mother’s little helper might not be a pharmaceutical product—it could very well be a robot.
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A Little More Bio-inspiration
Yesterday, I was in Hawaii and gave a keynote presentation to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association. As part of my talk, I encouraged the group to seek inspiration from biology for next-generation breakthroughs. In this spirit, I’d like to bring to your attention this article about how the shipping industry is drawing inspiration from the petoral fin of the Bluegill sunfish to design a more efficient and manueverable propeller.
The moral of the story? Mother Nature has been designing things for billions of years and there is still much we can learn from her.
Looking for more bits of inspiration from the animal kingdom? Check out these past posts:
Follow the Ants
To Survive ... Change Diets
Swarm Intelligence Gets Even Smarter
Biomimickry at its Best
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Future of the Airline Industry
Late last year, Freakonomics had an interesting post entitled ”What Will U.S. Air Travel Look Like in Ten Years.” The post had some helpful insights from industry experts such as Clifford Winston, Richard Branson and Josh Marks, but few of these insiders looked at the issue through the lens of emerging technologies.
Let me then offer my thoughts on how the industry will change in the decade ahead. For starters, advances in RFID technology will have greatly reduced—if not altogether—eliminated lost bags. Recall that last year, IBM announced it was partnering with Schiphiol Airport in Amsterdam to begin tracking baggage through that airport using RFID technology. By the end of 2009, IBM is hoping to trace all 70 million pieces of luggage that flow through the airport. Given the competitive nature of the airline industry and the high cost of lost baggage, I expect every major airport in the world to have implemented RFID technology by 2017.
Second, while it is impossible to predict how effective labor unions will be in protecting the jobs of thousands of TSA workers, I think there is an excellent chance that consumers will have a much shorter delay when entering the airport of 2017 due to new advances in molecular diagnostics, facial recognition technology, Iris identification and nanosensors. These technologies should allow a limited number of security personnel to efficiently and securely oversee the screening of the millions of passengers that pass through the airport each day by rapidly and accurately detecting the presense of any harmful weapon or dangerous chemical or biological contaminant. (On a separate note, advanced algorithms should even help us board planes faster—as I explained in this piece.)
Third, I expect airplanes to become even more crowded as the airlines use improved algorithms to actively sell empty seats to passengers. As America ages, many Baby Boomers will have extra time on their hand and the airlines, by knowing more about each customer (such as knowing that your Uncle Freddy likes to go to Las Vegas) will be able to entice him on short notice to catch the flight for $79.
Directly related to this trend is the fourth trend or what I call hyper-information. Websites such as Farecast are already doing a good job of telling consumers if they should buy a ticket to Paris today or wait until closer to Christmas in order to get a better deal, but as a result of expoential advances in information processing technology, data storage and algorithms these sites are only going to get better. More perfect information will lead to a more efficient allocation of resources and a continuation of razor thin margins for the industry. In short, look for more bankruptcies and mergers as the weak are herded out.
Trend #5: Biofuels will alleviate some of the price and environmental pressures the industry is facing over rising fuel costs. Look for companies such as Imperium Renewables and others to develop environmentally-friendly biofuels for jets. It is even possible that advances in synthetic biology will have lead to companies such as Synthetic Genomics driving the price of jet fuel down signficantly. In a sign of things to come, Virgin Airlines last month conducted the first-ever biofuel flight.
Trend #6: This one will still likely be small, but I expect that a number of planes will have only one pilot by 2017. Advances in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and drones—which will have risen exponentially in military use—will have begun to make their way into the commercial airline industry by this time. Airline companies looking to cut costs will realize that it no longer makes economic sense to have two or three pilots per plane.
Finally, a portion of the regional air traffic (e.g. trips less than 300 miles) will be siphoned off by advances being made in the field of flying cars such as I wrote about here. While the vision of being able to take-off straight from your house likely won’t be possible by 2017, I do believe a limited number of well-to-do consumers will be able to drive to smaller regional airports and fly their cars to other regional airports that are in close proximity to their final destination.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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