Strategies for innovating into the future:
Global futurist and author Jack Uldrich offers essential strategic information on nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, RFID and many other future technologies to help you prosper as exponential trends converge at this unique moment in history.
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Jump The Curve Archives: 05/2008
Reach for a New Future
Building off my two last posts --- AI: Getting Better All the Time & Why Mind Over Matter Matters -- I’d ecourage you to check out this amazing video. If a person can already contol a robotic prosthetic arm this well today, just image what we’ll be able to do tomorrow.
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Artificial Intelligence: It’s Getting Better All the Time
A couple of newsworthy piece have gotten me to thinking about the Beatles’ hit song, “It’s getting better all the time.” The two articles that triggered the connection to the songs’ lyrics are both related to rapidly emerging field of artificial intelligence and I think the saying “getting better all the time” is a phrase we all need to keep in mind as we move into the future.
The first article discusses how intelligent computers can now “see” human traits with an impressive success rate of 82%. In other words, a computer can, with a good degree of confidence, now tell if you are happy, sad, angry or confused. (By way of comparison, I can only wish I was half as accurate in assessing my wife’s many moods.)
At a minimum this suggests that artifical intelligence will become an even more integral component in a host of daily activities, including customer service, computer games and educational software, than it already is. Imagine, for instance, if an educational computer system could tell if a child was confused about a certain concept in biology and then reexplain it to him or her in a way that the child could understand. This compelling future is on the way because such computers are, in fact, “getting better all the time.”
The same is true with regard to computer models that can now predict what word you are thinking. This article discusses the work researchers at Carnegie Mellon are now doing in applying fMRI technology to scan the brains of users. Although the computer model currently only tests for 60 words and is just 75% accurate it, too, is “getting better all the time.”
Now consider what will be possible when artifical intelligence can create a computer that can not only read our facial expressions but also our minds. It almost blows your mind, doesn’t it?
No? Then perhaps this article, entitled ”Scheme to Let Robot Take Over Brain-Computer Interface” will. It discusses how researchers at CalTech have created a miniature robot which is using sophisticated algorithms to more effectively place brain-neural chips inside the brain.
As one researcher says, “the idea of actually putting this in the human brain is far off,” but both the underlying robotic technology and algorithmic software are “getting better all the time.” It is only a matter of time before computers can really get inside your head.
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If These Walls Could Talk
Scientists at John Hopkins have reportedly created a new material that someday might be able to transmit sounds through something as thin as wallpaper.
In addition to leading to some kick-ass home entertainment rooms, the technology might have some other practical applications as well. Recently, I finished reading the book, Get There Early, and in it the author discussed how Chip Davis (the founder of the musical group Mannheim Steamroller) is now developing a prototype hospital room of the future whereby digital color displays in the ceiling will be synchronized with the music. Perhaps, soon, the digital display and the music will simply merge into one as a result of this technology. (BTW, Davis’ hypothesis is that natural lighting and sounds can speed the healing process.) If the wallpaper speaker technology doesn’t come to fruition, though, we can at least take some comfort knowing that Sony is now making speakers as small as a golf ball.
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Why Mind Over Matter … Matters
Yesterday, the journal Nature reported researchers at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine had successfully tested a robotic arm which was controlled using only the signals from a monkey’s arm. (A good overview of the technology can be read in this article: ”Mind over Matter: Monkey Feeds tself using its Brain”.)
The test was not the first such test but it does suggest that the technology is getting better and will likely someday soon be used to aide people with spinal cord injuries or other debilitating diseases such as Lou Gehrig’s disease or MS.
I would, however, encourage people to think beyond these immediate applcations. Michael Berger of Nanowerk recently had a very thoughtful—and thought-provoking—piece entitled Nanotechnology, transhumanism and the bionic man, in which he discusses how technologies which were initially created for the disabled could become a platform for “the acceptance of transhumanist ideas and products.”
He is right and the aforementioned brain-neural technology is a perfect case in point. In the beginning, it will be sold as a tool for the disabled but as the technology continues to improve it will eventually be viewed by some people (but not all) as a way to perform at a higher level—both mentally and physically. I discussed this idea briefly in this piece entitled ”Pong and the President’s Brain” a few months ago, but the issue is worth thinking about in greater detail.
The benefits of such a technology are obvious to me, but so too is the concern that brain-neural/robotic technology will first be adopted by the “haves” and it will give them an even greater advantage over the “have-nots.”
I wish I had a grand solution for balancing the positive benefits of the technology with its potential costs—which I would define as the unfair advantage between those who can afford the technology will have over those who cannot initially afford it.
I’d be interested in hearing the thoughts of whether you have the same concerns; and, if so, how you think society might address this issue.
P.S. For those interested, here’s a short one-minute video of the monkey “thinking” a banana into its mouth:
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Get There Early: A Book Review
Recently, I had some time to kill in an airport and as I am wont to do in such situations I strolled into the bookstore. It was my good fortune to stumble across the book, Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present by Bob Johansen of the Institute for the Future.
I highly recommend it for anyone interested in the future. Among some of the key points I took away from the book were:
1. Uncouple the art of forecasting from prediction. As I stated in this piece a few days ago the future is unknowable, but this doesn’t diminish the importance of forecasting. It does, however, suggest that all of us should take everyone’s predictions with a healthy dose of salt. As Voltaire said, “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” It is good advice to heed when contemplating the future. Far too many variables are at work to predict the future with much accuracy.
2. Don’t adopt a fixed mind-set. Related to this point was the author’s warning against adopting a fixed mind-set with regard to the future. Too often, people with a particular mind-set see only things that fit their pre-conceived worldview. For example, I tend to be very optimistic about the future. (A case-in-point is this piece I wrote on human longevity.) Therefore, it is all that much more important for me to guard against fitting all future technological advances into this optimistic mind-set.
3. Think the unthinkable. Some of the strategies the author offered to protect oneself against the latter problem was to work on “thinking the unthinkable” as well as learning to “hold multiple realities in your mind at the same time.” To use my own thinking on longevity as an example, it would behoove me to actively consider reasons why people in the future might have shorter life-spans or how the future of longeveity might be asymmetrical. That is: some people might live longer, while others could have shorter life-spans. (Interestingly, we are already seeing signs of this future as life expectancy rates in the deep South are actually decreasing due to obesity, diabetes and other lifestyle-related diseases.)
4. Learn to become “comfortable with being uncomfortable.” Johansen makes a compelling argument that in the future—due to growing complexity—leaders will need to “focus less on solving problems and more on managing dilemmas” (and even “trilemmas” and “multiliemmas.") A couple of his proposed suggestions include: “reflect more, and respond less.” All too often, people—especially leaders—have a bias toward action. That is all fine and well unless, of course, of action is wrong. Bottom-line: The future is going to be very fluid and people will need to work hard at staying flexible. His solution: ask a lot of questions; think before acting; and learn to embrace ambiguity.
All told, the book offers a wealth of other tools and concrete examples to help the reader become more effective forecasters. Again, I highly recomend it.
P.S. The inside of the book cover is worth the price of the book alone. It offers a visual map of the Institute for the Future’s latest 10-year forecast.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Stretchy, Solar Shoes? Who Knows.
Ecogeek recently uncovered that Apple has filed a patent on a solar-powered iPod. Time will tell if the idea ever comes to fruition, but if it doesn’t I’m confident that something else will. One idea that I believe we will see in the near future is solar-powered clothes. The U.S. Army is already developing solar textiles and advances in the area of stretchable silicon suggests that even shoes could become solar collectors.
One additional application that we should see before long is shoes that “grow” with the wearer. According to this article, one company is already manufacturing shoes that can be manually adjusted as a child’s foot grow. Looking at the picture, though, they don’t look that comfortable. If, however, the shoes could gently stretch as the young wearer’s foot grows that’s seems a little more practical.
If someone can then combined a shoe that both collects energy and grows—well, that could be a real winner.
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Think Outside the Box … Way Outside!
Personally, I despise the saying “Think outside the box.” Nevertheless, as a result of exponential advances in technology people will need to learn to “jump the curve” in order to envision how different the future will be. To this end, I’d refer you to the graph to the right. If you are inclined to “think outside the box,” please think way outside the box—because this is where we will be living in the future.
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Our Accelerating Future
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A Useful Analogy for Thinking About the Future
Think 10X, Not 10%
Einstein, Intel and All the Rice in China
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How to Turn 2 Cents into $5.36 Million
Embracing Change
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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It’s a Bird, It’s a Plane … No, It’s Super Robot
There’s that old saying that if walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it’s a duck. Well, in the future, things are going to get a little more confusing. Soon, devices will walk like humans; feel like humans and see like humans, but that won’t mean it is a human.
To this point, I simply refer you to a handful of articles that were published only this morning. The first explains how researchers at Delft University in the Netherlands have developed a robot that walks like a human. The next article documents how researchers have constructed a new pet robot that communicates with humans only by touch. Lastly, there was this report outlining how advances in image recognition technology is improving to the point where computers and robots will soon be as good (and eventually even better) than humans at recognizing the images around them.
If you consider how all of these advances are likely to converge with one another, it is easy to understand how robots might soon be seeing, feeling, walking and even jumping their way around us.
To this last point about jumping, check out this short video which demonstrates how a tiny robot can already leap—kind of like Superman—“taller than the tallest building”:
Looking for more bits of inspiration from the animal kingdom? Check out these past posts:
Will Future Robots Have Tails
Bettle Biomimickry
A Little More Bio-inspiration
Follow the Ants
To Survive ... Change Diets
Swarm Intelligence Gets Even Smarter
Biomimickry at its Best
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Get the Skinny on the Future
This morning as my daughter was leaving for school she asked if she could watch the “fat, chunky” movie this weekend. I gave her a perplexed look and replied that I’d never heard of it. I probed a little further and although it took me a few moments to determine what she was talking about, I eventually understood that she wanted to know if she could watch a VHS-format movie.
This incident, along with another this past weekened where she gazed unknowingly at a record player that was for sale at a garage sale, has gotten me to thinking about what else might seem “fat and chunky” to her in the future.
Already televisions, phones and iPods are impressively thin and are likely to grow more so in the future. Alas, it won’t stop there.
A few months back, I wrote about solar energy’s long-term potential and one reason I’m so optimistic about its potential is that I believe thin-film photovoltaics are only going to grow more efficient and cost-effective over time. Among other things this implies that today’s bulky silicon solar cells are likely to fade away.
The field of nanotechnology is also leading to thinner and more effective materials. Therefore, walls made out of aerogels; car panels constructed of new nanocomposites; and automobile batteries (which utilize various nanomaterials) should also become thinner. As will lights which will take advantage of advances in organic light emitting diodes.
Next, as flexible electronics grow more mature and as more people grow comfortable reading information from such flexible displays, there is good reason to believe that books and newspapers will also become thinner. (In fact, they will become so “thin” that their digital content will simply be displayed in atom-sized pixels on the electronic substrate.)
Finally, as I highlighted last week in this piece, obesity - due to advances in genomics—could soon be addressed. In other words, it is entirely possible that we humans (especially Americans) will become less, well, “fat and chunky.”
Of course, just as “boom boxes” staged a surprising counter-trend in the late 1980’s and gigantic wearable clocks became all the rage, I am open to the idea that some products might become larger in the future but, in general, I think “thin” will definitely be “in” in the future.
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Jack Uldrich Speaks on the Future
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It’ll Make Vacuuming a Breeze
Check out this cool video of a levitating couch (no kidding). At $10,000 a pop it’s still pretty expensive, but it should make vacuuming under it a breeze.
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Unlearning the Future
The future is unknowable. There are far too many variables for even the most foresighted individual or powerful supercomputer to accurately forecast what tomorrow—let alone next year or the next decade—will look like with precision. Nevertheless, this fact neither discounts the importance of forecasting, nor does it diminish the work that those individuals (myself included) try to do in discerning what the future might hold in store.
I would, however, like to submit that anyone inclined toward thinking about the future should be open to the idea of unlearning, which I define as “the unique skill of jettisoning old knowledge in order to accomodate newer and more relevant information.”
A case in point is this new study suggesting that global warming may not be worsening hurricanes. Now, before anyone gets too not and bothered by the real or perceived flaws in the study’s methodology, I’d like to make clear that it is not my contention that this study is the final word on the topic. Rather, I simply want to highlight it as an example of how continued advances in the development of better and more sophisticated supercomputers, algorithms and ubiqitous sensors are likely to lead to more situations in the future where scientists and researchers produce results that question and challenge conventional wisdom. (To this point, ever since Hurricane Katrina many people have come to believe that there is a direction connection between global climate change and the frequency and severity of hurricanes, and often this belief has lead them to predict that more hurricanes are in our future.)
The job of forecasters and futurists, however, is to be receptive to contradictory information—especially when it challenges fundamental beliefs or assumptions about the future.
History is littered with examples of yesterday’s dogma being mocked and ridiculed by the next generation. There is no reason to think that many of our most cherished beliefs won’t be similarly mocked and ridiculed in the future.
One way to avoid this fate is to have the courage to “unlearn” things whenever new and compelling information becomes available.
Interested in other posts on the topic of unlearning? Check out these articles:
Unlearning the Tipping Point
Learn to Ask New Questions
Does the Pharmaceutical Industry Need to Unlearn?
Is the Health Care Industry prepared to Unlearn?
Learning to Unlearn: Case Study #1
Examples of Unexponential Thinking
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Ford’s Small Future
Back in 2005, Ford announced plans to establish a joint nanotechnology initiative with Boeing at Northwestern University. It now appears that Ford is reaping early benefits from this initiative by finding innovative ways to use nanotechnology to improve some aspects of its existing business.
According to this recent news release, Ford expects to use new nanomaterials to reduce vehicle weight between 250 and 750 pounds (depending on vehicle type) without compromising safety. These materials, in turn, are expected to be an integral component of the company’s strategy to improve fuel economy by 40% by 2020.
Now, Ford has a history of over promising and under-delivering; so I’m not suggesting the long-struggling automakers has turned a new corner and that it now represents a solid investment. I do, however, believe the company’s activity in the area of nanotechnology bears watching.
This is especially true if the company can develop “smart” nanomaterials such as General Motors has already created and is now using to redesign certain aspects of its automobiles, including shape-shifting fenders and side panels. (This short article and video offers a quick primer on what some other applications might be.)
Longer-term, if Ford can manufacture nanoparticles and nanomaterials to develop better and longer-lasting batteries such as A123 Systems has created for companies like Black and Decker and GM, it will be a bullish sign.
It has been said that a long journey begins with a single step. Ford’s efforts in nanotechnology to create lighter, more fuel-efficient vehicles represents just such a small first step, but it will need to apply the “science of the small” to bigger opportunities if it wants to recapture some of its former glory.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Inflection Point: Tissue Regeneration
One of my preferred methods for trying to understand where the future might be headed is to look for those areas where technology can address a compelling human need. To this point, this past weekend I read with great interest this opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal entitled ”Why We Need a Market for Human Organs.” It’s a well-reasoned piece and the sentiment appeals to my more libertarian and free market-oriented sensibilities. Nevertheless, I am of the opinion that within the next 10-15 years advances in tissue and organ regeneration technology will render the need for “organ markets” obsolete.
I have written about this idea before, but I’d encourage you to read this new government report entitled ”2020: A New Vision - A Future for Regenerative Medicine.” According to the report the current world market for replacement organ therapies is in excess of $350 billion. More disturbing, however, is the fact that there are currently over 100,000 patients are on a waiting list for an organ donation and an estimated 8,000 people on that list will die this year while waiting for a transplant.
The latter situation is an unacceptable, but if one combines the vast economic opportunity with the growing need for organ donation (this need will only grow larger as millions of Baby Boomers age), it is clear to me that the incentive (and, wuite likely, the government funding) will be there for scientists, researchers and entrepreneurs to address this issue in the years ahead.
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You’ll Look and Feel Good in Genes in the Future
A few months back, I wrote an article entitled ”The Coming Health Care Revolution” in which I discussed the startling advances in the field of genomics. To provide readers a better sense of how fast things are happening, I’d like to highlight the news just from today.
I began my morning by reading this article discussing how researchers in Georgia believe they have identified a gene which plays a significant role in causing Alzheimer’s. Next, I stumbled across this BBC report reviewing how smoking causes genetic changes which limit the production of a protein believed to be helpful in preventing lung cancer. Finally, there was this report on Physorg discussing how the gene—GLUT2—might be linked to obesity.
It is, of course, too early to discern the true implications of all of these findings but the signs are promising and suggest that in the not-too-distant future society will develop more effective means of both preventing and treating some of today’s leading health care problems, including Alzheimer’s, lung cancer and obesity.
All in all the progress isn’t bad day’s work; and the future, I’d argue, is even more promising due to the accelerating pace of change in the field of genomics. (To this point, last week researchers at the University of Oklahoma found a gene they believe plays a role in breast, pancreas, colon, ovarian and prostate cancer.)
Interested in other health care-related posts? Check out these recent articles:
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)
The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
To paraphrase Henry David Thoreau, it seems that for every 1000 people working to treat disease there is but one person working to prevent that disease from occuring in the first place. This, of course, is a slight exaggeration but it is safe to say that the preponderance of today’s health care expenditures are directed toward treatment, not preventation.
This is a costly way of doing business. Luckily, a fair number of scientists, researchers and savvy businesspeople are working hard to reverse this trend. The other day, Technology Review had an excellent article entitled ”Next Generation Diagnostics” in which it highlighted a new start-up called Quanterix. Apparently, the company’s technology is so sophisicated that it can detect a single molecule. This feat is important because often tumors will release small trace amounts of a signature protein prior to turning into larger, more problematic tumors. Much the same is true with heart attacks. Often proteins indicative of a heart attack will be released prior to the attack actually occuring. The thinking goes that if these trace amounts can be detected early, the diseases can be prevented.
If Quanterix’ technology doesn’t work then perhaps the new nano-bio chip being developed by researchers at the University of Texas or the medical diagnostic test being developed at the University of Colorado will. Both technologies are somewhat similar to Quanterix’, but instead to testing for proteins in blood, Texas’s technology quickly scans a patient’s saliva whereas Colorado’s scans a person’s breath.
Any way you slice it, though, the future of health is growing increasing clear: preventation is taking precedence over treatment.
Interested in other health care-related posts? Check out these recent articles:
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Health Care Providers Could Use a Second Life
I frequently speak to health care providers and hospitals associations on the future of health care. More often than not my message about how emerging technologies in the fields of biotechnology, nanotechnology, genomics, stem cell research and robotics will transform the field is greeted with an open mind.
However, when I discuss how Internet-based technologies and virtual reality sites such as Second Life can help them train employees as well as diagnose patients, my message is often greeted with skepticism. It is an understandable reaction (after all, the technology is fairly new), but I’d argue that it is wrong and providers who are refusing—or are reluctant—to embrace the technology are missing a grand opportunity to both save money and better assist their patients.
A wonderful case in point is this recent article from The Guardian. It is entitled ”Teenagers to take embarassing ailments to Second Life doctors” and it discusses how a health care facility in Spain recently launched a virtual portal in Second Life aimed at diagnosing young people who are too embarassed to speak to a doctor about sexually transmitted diseases.
To my mind, it is a great example of “jumping the curve” and embracing the future. Yet there is no reason why the technology should only be aimed at teenagers. As a middle-aged man myself, I know a great many of my peers would benefit from seeing a doctor more often but, for a variety of reasons, refuse to do so. The same is true for elderly people or patients located in remote rural areas. In each instance, virtual reality sites could be created that cater to the unique needs of these different demographics and entice them to receive medical information.
It is not my contention that virtual reality sites are a complete fix. I know many patients will continue to refuse to use the technology. Still, if smartly deployed and targeted at key constituencies, such sites can become a cost-effective weapon in delivering preventative health care information.
Interested in other health care-related posts? Check out these recent articles:
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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See How You Feel
A great 4-minute video explaining how fMRI technology will soon allow people to “see how they feel.” The implication of near exponential advances in fMRI technology is that society will soon have a new tool to treat a variety of ailments, including chronic pain and depression.
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Of Death & Taxes: Government 2.0
Benjamin Franklin once wrote, “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” Well, last week I explained why death’s gripe might be loosening, and this week I’d like to take a quick look at how our tax burden could soon be reduced.
In the editorial section of today’s Wall Street Journal there are two articles that speak to how emerging technologies could dramatically lower government expenditures—and, by extension, help lower taxes.
The first is piece by Brian Carney explains how unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) could soon replace a majority of jet fighters. What is most noteworthy is that in addition to placing fewer pilots at risk, the cost of a UAV (or drone) is $4.2 million as compared to $350 million, which is the cost of a next-generation F-22 fighter. Better still, UAV’s don’t suffer from fatigue nor do they require generous pensions after they are retired.
Advances in robotics offer similar chances to cut our bloated defense budget. Robots are soon expected to be able to drive vehicles and, eventually, even ships and submarines. If so, the rational for our sizeable army and navy will soon be called into question.
Technology’s benefit is not limited only to defense. As Gordon Crovitz explains is his piece, ”From Wikinomics to Government 2.0,” the Internet and Web 2.0 technologies are transforming everything from how citizens are combating crime (and thus cutting down on police budgets) to better managing their neighborhoods.
The real benefits of new emerging technologies, though, can be found in the areas of education and transportation. Innovative teachers are now employing Curriki to constantly update their curriculum; advances in electronics—such as Amazon’s new Kindle—should help render textbooks obsolete; and the open-courseware movement that MIT and other elite universities are pursuing should make education less expensive by making content freely available to anyone with Internet access.
In the area of transportation, roads, bridges and mass transit systems are all expensive to build and operate. The innovative use of sensors and satellite technology might, however, allow users to more efficiently use our existing roads; and super high-speed bandwidth capability—in combination with improved video and virtual reality technology—should make working from home even more practical in the near future.
The bottom-line is that there is absolutely no reason why government should cost more in the future. People, especially government officials, need to start thinking differently about how to innovatively employ technology to better address today’s existing problems.
Looking for some other innovative ideas about how technology can save taxpayers money? Check out these past posts:
Embracing Change
The Future is CheapThe Future of Education is Now!
The Future of College
The Future of Kid’s Health
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Now That’s a Supercomputer!
ComputerWorld recently reported that NASA’s latest supercomputer will be capable of performing 10 quadrillion floating-point operations per second.
Now, 10 quadrillion is rather large number. In fact, it is so large that it can be difficult to wrap one’s brain around. Let me try to put it in some perspective for you.
A few year’s ago I wrote an article about an IBM supercomputer capable of 70 trillion calculations per second. As a way of helping the reader grasp the enormity of the number, I noted that if that person had to perform a comparable number of calculations but only had a hand-held calculator it would take that person 60 million years to do what that supercomputer can now do in a single second. (And this is assuming the person could work around the clock 24/7/365.)
Today, supercomputers are performing 1 quadrillion calculations per seconds. So, if you follow the analogy, it would now take roughly 800 million years to perform a comparable number of calculations. And, if you extend the analogy out to 10 quadrillion calculations, it will soon take a person 8 billion years to do the same chore.
All this might sound rather pedantic, but if you want to understand why the future is speeding up you should take this analogy to heart because what these supercomputers are really doing is augmenting human intelligence and accelerating change. For example, supercomputers are being used to develop new nanomaterials, new drugs and next-generation airplanes and spacecraft. More important, they are helping scientists and researchers gain a better understanding complex systems such as the human body; the natural environment; and the universe itself.
Why, these supercomputers are even being used to develop the next generation of supercomputers which will soon be capable of 100 quadrillion calculations! (Pessimists will argue that such a supercomputer would cost billions to build and would need a massive amount of energy to operate—and they would be right. However, according to this article, smart researchers at the Berkeley Lab are trying to change the supercomputing paradigm by using larger numbers of small processor cores which have the advantage of being both less expensive and less energy intensive.)
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Bone Up on Your Materials Sciences
There is an informative article in Technology Review on the topic of advance materials. To many, the subject undoubtedly sounds boring but I’d like to suggest otherwise and express the opionion that unless you keep with advances in the field you could soon find yourself out of business.
Without going into great detail, the gist of the article is that due to near exponential advances in scientists’ ability to program the self-assembly of nanoparticles, researchers are now poised to assemble new materials with novel optical, electronic and magnetic properties. More importantly, as savvy businesspeople begin to figure out how to exploit these properties they could soon be developing some very cool—as well as very efficient and effective—new products.
For example, I have written before about solar power’s potential. Due to advances in self-assembly, however, it is quite possible that photovoltaics could soon capture a broader range of the solar spectrum. And this, in turn, could mean that new solar cells will be efficient enough to work even in cloudy environments.
Another example is occurring in the field of fuel cell technology. This recent article discussing the possibility of cheap hydrogen is a perfect case-in-point. Researchers have now shown that by tweaking the atomic structure of titania they can more efficiently produce hydrogen. If hydrogen becomes easier and cheaper to produce this means that not only might fuel cell vehicles arrive sooner than expected, it is also possible that hydrogen can be used as a means to store solar energy (which would be generated during the day) and then used (in the form of hydrogen) in the evening.
Scores of other opportunities also await. I have written before about how new materials are already effecting both the semiconductor industry and the oil and gas industry; and new materials will also transform the building and manufacturing industries.
The bottom-line is this: If your business has anything to do with materials—and this is most businesses—it would behoove you to begin paying attention to the advances in the world of material science and nanotechnology.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Ship Bits, Not Carbon
It has been widely reported that the Internet can reduce greenhouse emissions by 1 billion tons over the next decade as result of companies such as EnerNoc and Verdiem developing better methods to monitor and control residential and business energy usage. This is undoubtedly true, but people to begin thinking even more broadly about the Internet’s ability to protect the environment.
Act Local
It’s a cliche to be sure, yet the old mantra about thinking globally and acting local still rings true and the growing power of social networks can greatly amplify this tendency.
For instance, as the father of two grade-schoolers, my wife and I regularly cart our kids to their myriad of extra-curricular activities. Not surprisingly, at every practice, an army of SUV’s and minivans fill the parking lot. Most vehicles chauffeured only one child and, more often than not, many of these children either live in the same neighborhood or attend the same school. Now, as much as I love my children and would love to believe they are imbued with extraordinary talents, it is not imperative that I—or any other parent—be attendance at every practice.
My point is that there is no reason why my fellow parents and I can’t better coordinate our activities and car-pool in the same way that today’s free-wheeling, net-savvy teens use social networking tools to plan their activities and share the burdens of daily life. (Alternatively, if a parent feels that he or she just can’t bear to miss a single karate chop, piano recital or soccer kick, perhaps they could convince the sponsoring organization to stream the event onto the web.)
Act Global
Often lost in the discussion about the Internet’s ability to protect the environment is a discussion about the power of the open-source movement. A few weeks back, I read about an innovative technology that might actually take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. (Yes, I know that trees also already do this but this technology might potentially to do it on a larger and quicker timescale).
The technology is still in an early stage of development, but this is where the Internet could help it along. There is a universe of bright, intelligent people who are accessible via the Internet and if given access to the right information might be able to build upon it and facilitate the technology’s entry into the commercial marketplace.
To opponents who question why anyone with such a potentially valuable technology would share it, I would answer that the Internet is already being successfully exploited by innovative companies to do everything from search for new gold deposits to develop new blockbuster drugs. There is no reason why this technology or other new clean technologies can’t be developed in a similar fashion.
Think Different
John Maynard Keynes once said that it is more efficient to “ship recipes than biscuits.” His point was that shipping information and knowledge—and not physical products—is the key to an efficient economic system.
The farsighted economist was absolutely right and the Internet provides society a grand opportunity to rethink this maxim anew—and in an environmental context. Consider the case of Amazon’s new electronic book-reader, Kindle. If we truly want to protect the environment and reduce our impact on the environment, does it really make sense to cut down trees to produce the paper for books; use tons of coal-power electricity to manufacture the books; and then transport those books across the country with gas-guzzling, fossil fuel-powered trucks—all for the privilege of then storing the books in rooms and libraries which must be heated?
How much better would it be to digitally transmit books to electronic devices in a way that leaves only a fraction of the book publishing industry’s carbon footprint?
This, however, is just the beginning. As advances in digital, computer-aided-design are coupled with advances in rapid prototype manufacturing (i.e. printing physical objects) and nanotechnology, the list of future products which might also be shipped in the form of information could grow exponentially.
What’s Really Need: A Change in a Behavior
These modest proposals only hint at the Internet’s potential to enhance the environment. The one common element is that they all also require a change in human behavior. And that, perhaps, is where those of us interested in protecting the environment might want to continue to leverage the Internet—to educate people on how their current behaviors are adversely impacting the environment and then convince them to act out their lives in new, different and more sustainable ways.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Science Daily has an informative article discussing yet more advances in the field of robotic surgeries. What is interesting about this article is that it reviews how the advances might eliminate the need for surgeons to use fluoroscopy—which uses radiation—when doing catheter-based procedures. The advantage of this is that the patient is exposed to less radiation.
Here, however, is the operative quote from the article: “The technology will advance to the point where robots—without the guidance of a doctor—can someday operate on people.”
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Is Evolution Exponential?
When Charles Darwin first proposed writing his landmark book on evolution, The Origins of Species, his editor suggested writing a book on pigeons because, in his words, “Everyone is interested in pigeons.” Fortunately, Darwin chose to ignore the advice. I am reminded of the story because even though Darwin’s theory was proposing only that species make modest, incremental changes over long periods of time, it was—and in many circles still is—a revolutionary idea.
What then happens if evolution is not just incremental in nature but rather exponential? That, too, is a revolutionary idea—especially since it could impact us within our lifetimes.
Well, we are now approaching a time when this exponential theory of evolution will be put to the test.
If you accept the notion of evolution, you will agree that the earliest life appeared on earth approximately 4 billion years ago. Complex cellular organisms showed up 2 billion years ago, and the first multicellular organism about 1 billion years ago. The first reptiles and dinosaurs made their appearance 300 million years ago; the first primates 40 million years ago; homo sapiens appeared 160,000 years ago; Cro-Magnon man 40,000 years ago; and modern civilization as we know it began about 10,000 years ago.
Thinking about this much progress over such an extended period of time is difficult. Years ago, Carl Sagan, the famed astronomer, offered up a “cosmic calendar” to make such progress more comprehensible to the layperson. He asked that they imagine the entire history of the universe as being compressed into a single year.
Under this scenario the year would begin on January 1 with a bang—the Big Bang. Nothing much would then happen in our corner of the universe until about August when the sun would make its appearance. The earth itself wouldn’t show signs of any life until November—when the first multicellular organisms begin wiggling about. Dinosaurs show up around Christmas Eve. At 10:15 AM on December 31, apes would appear; humans would begin walking upright at 9:24 PM; modern civilization would appear at 11:59:20; Rome would fall at 11:59:57; and the Renaissance would occur just one second before midnight.
Rather amazingly, everything else—the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, the computer, the Internet, the human genome project, stem cell research, nanotechnology, etc—would be squeezed into the last second. From this perspective, I would argue that evolution can thus be seen as yet another exponential trend.
So what does it mean? If you accept the premise that each additional doubling of an exponential trend contains as much change as all the previous doublings combined, then it means that humans in our present form are not be the endpoint of humanity but merely a steppingstone to the next evolutionary stage.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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What Does the Future Smell Like?
What will the future smell like? On the face of it, it sounds like a silly question but I believe that by thinking about the question we might be able to glean some insights into the future.
The other day I was in Las Vegas to give a speech to the Food Marketing Institute and it was my good luck to have the opportunity to sit in on a presentation by Martin Lindstrom who is one of the world’s leading branding experts.
His talk was absolutely fascinating and he spent a good deal of time discussing how important the sense of smell is too branding. (To this point, if I say “Crayola” crayon or Play-Doh my guess is that many of you can almost smell those products’ unique scents).
More interesting, however, Lindstrom discussed how certain smells conjure up different emotions for people of different generations. For example, if you were born before 1930 you are likely to enjoy the smell of hay and manure; and if you born before 1960 the smell of freshly cut grass conjures up positive feelings.
Advances in technology, however, have since rendered these smells less popular to younger generations. Due to the immense popularity of the automobile, few of us any longer have much contact with horses and, when we do, we don’t particularly care for the smell of their waste product. With regard to freshly cut grass, it was Lindstrom’s contention that people born after 1960 tend to associate the smell with the chore of working and it is therefore less enticing.
I can’t speak to the intellectual validity of these arguments but it is an interesting thought exercise to consider how the future might change the public’s emotional response to certain smells—as well as how future technologies or products might create new popular scents. For example, if fuel cell technology or biofuels become popular might the smell of gasoline be universally reviled in the future? Could global climate change cause future generations to loath the smell of wood-burning fires or the scent of freshly cut pine trees? Or, perhaps, if self-cleaning and odor neutralizing nanomaterials become the norm could the scent of Johnson & Johnson’s baby powder lose its allure?
I don’t know. I also don’t know if new robots, high-powered electric cars or any number of yet-to-be invented products and technologies might have their own unique scents; but I’d be interested in your thoughts on what some smells of the future might be, or on how you think our current association with certain scents might change over time.
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10 Reasons Why We Will to 1000
The signs are all around us and yet, rather surprisingly, there is very little public discussion of an issue that is going to have profound moral, ethical, and political ramifications for all of society.
The issue of which I speak is the possibility of immortality. In just the past few days, however, the New York Times has run an informative article on how advances in genomics are improving the treatment of disease; the Economist has discussed the impressive progress being made in the field of gene therapy, and Technology Review covered the extraordinary advances that researchers at the University of Minnesota are making in growing a human heart.
Last week, I discussed why the future is accelerating and before that, I encouraged readers when thinking about the future to ”think 10X, not 10%”; and the more I think about health care and human longeveity, the more I think both of these lines of thought apply to this field in particular.
I recently came across this article entitled”The man who will help you live for 1,000 years.” It is about Aubrey de Grey’s new book ”Ending Aging.” To most people the idea of living to 1,000 sounds absolutely crazy. But, as I explain in my own new book, Jump the Curve, due to exponential advances in a variety of technologies the ability to do things that sound “impossible” today could very well become quite “doable” tomorrow. (This is just one reason I think we all need to develop a ”future bias.")
With this brief introduction then let me provide you 10 reasons why you could live to 1,000 years of age.
#1: More powerful computers. Late last year, it was announced that IBM had the world’s most powerful supercomputer. It is capable of 1 quadrillion calculations per second. More impressive, by 2009, IBM expects to have a supercomputer capable of 10 quadrillion calculations per second. Now, computer speed, in and of itself, will not directly lead to longer lives but what these supercomputers are learning about the human body—the brain, protein-folding, pharmacogenomics, etc.—could very well lead to some amazing medical breakthroughs.
#2 Better Drugs. I recently stumbled across this article entitled ”So You Want to Live Forever?” It discusses the progress that Sirtris Pharmaceuticals (which was recently acquired by GlaxoSmithKline) is making in testing a fountain-of-youth pill in humans. The drug may or may not work, but if it doesn’t work there are similar drugs in the FDA pipeline and it is not unrealistic to think that some of those drugs might just someday be successful at extending human life. (And with the first Baby Boomers hitting retirement age in 2008, you can bet that there will be a large market for any drug that keeps the “Woodstock” generation feeling and looking young.)
#3: Implantable Organs. I have written before about the amazing progress being made in the area of implantable organs. Today, bladders and human skin are being grown. Tomorrow, it is possible that kidneys and livers might be grown. And in 10 or 15 years (perhaps sooner given the University of Minnesota’s progress) maybe even the human heart will be able to be artifically manufactured.
#4 Stem Cell Research: In November 2007, researchers announced that they derived a new method for growing stem cells that might sidestep some of the ethical issues hindering current research. If so, advances in stem cell research could progress at faster rate than most people generally appreciate.
#5 Genome sequencing: This past weekend the New York Times ran an article describing how three companies want to make a portion of your genome available to you for less than $1000. This is extraordinary considering that in the mid-1970’s it cost $150 million to sequence a single gene! As the technology continues to improve and we learn more about how genes regulate human health scientists and researchers could easily find ways to lenthen human longeveity.
#6: Robotic surgeries: I written before about the future of health care and I am of the opinion that within the next decade amazing breakthroughs will be made in the field of robotic surgeries. In fact, researchers in South Korea are already experimenting with miniature robots to clear people’s arteries. If effective, heart disease may be a thing of the past. Robotics are also being used for a growing number of other surgeries as I recently explained in this piece.
#7: Nanotechnology: The National Cancer Institute has speculated that due to advances in nanotechnology cancer could be a treatable disease as early as 2015.
#8: Advances in proteinomics and metagenomics. How the human body operates is only imprecisely understood today. As advances in each of the aforementioned fields progresses, however, we will have a much better understanding of the human body and, thus, how to treat it.
#9: Human Desire. I understand perfectly well that a vast majority of people are terribly uncomfortable with the idea of radical life extension. Nevertheless, there are thoughtful and intelligent people such as Aubrey de Grey who are actively challenging society to think differently. Rather than accepting aging as an inevitable aspect of life, they are instead encouraging society to view aging as a disease—something to be treated. This is a profound paradigm shift, but is it any more profound than Copernecius telling people 500 years ago that they were not at the center of the universe? History has a way of demonstrating that future often turns out much different than most people appreciate and that what constitutes “conventional wisdom” in one era is laughed at and mocked by future generations. Our “acceptance” of death might be one such issue.
#10: Evolution. Lastly, I would like to submit the idea that mankind is destine to evolve towards radical life extension. In 1600, the average life expectancy was 36 years. At the beginning of the 17th century, life expectancy had inched forward to 37 years. One hundreds later it had increased to 39 years. At the beginning of the 20th century, it was 47. Only a 100 years, however, it had increased almost 30 years—to 77. What will the next 100 years hold? It is difficult to imagine, but it is important to understand that society will not simply experience a rate of change similar to the last century. Due to the accelerating rate of progress we could very well experience the equilavent of 20,000 years of progress (as measured by the 20th century rate). Within all of this progress, it is possible that we might find the key (or keys) to radical life extension? I believe that the answer is yes.
The real question then becomes: “How do we prepare ourselves and society for this seismic change?”
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Swiss Army Phone of the Future: Part 2
Sometimes the world is moving so fast that even I have a hard time keeping up with the pace of accelerating technologies—and I devote a good part of my day to making it a point to stay on top of these things. Well, anyways, yesterday I wrote a posting on the swiss army phone of the future in which I decribed how the phone of the future will not only serve as a phone, address book, MP3/video player, Internet browser and video recorder, but also as a medical diagnotician and a personal cash dispenser.
No sooner had I posted the article, though, than I came across this article from Technology Review explaining how advances in software will soon help business travelers more easily read their documents on a cellphone screen; as well as this slightly older article from BBC News entitled ”Hand-held supercomputers on the way.”
The latter article wasn’t terribly insightful, but it did remind me that due to advances in nanotechnnology—especially in the fields of nanowires (such as this one announced today) and carbon nanotubes—the cellphone of the future will likely have the processing capability of today’s most powerful supercomputers. If you wondering where this might lead, I’d encourage you to watch the short video posted below that shows how researchers at Accenture have developed an algorithm that allows phone users to snap a picture of an object and then have that object searched over the Internet.
Among the other things that this will allow users to do is take a picture of a food item in the store and not only do a quick price comparison as well as learn about its calorie count, the users could even find out if all the ingredients are organic and discern what other food types or wines might go with the product in question.
In short, I think it is safe to say that the phone of the future will become an even more indispensable part of our life than it already is.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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The Swiss Army Phone of the Future
It is sometimes hard to remember that it was only 15 years ago that the first cellphones came into existence. Moreover, they were big, bulky, expensive and of limited capability. Today, the average $79 cellphone serves as a phone, address book, MP3/TV player, camera, Internet browser, and video recorder. What else will they be able to do in the future?
For starters, as I explained in this piece a couple of months ago, the cellphone of the future will likely serve as a low-cost diagnostic technician that can tell you everything from if your breathe is bad to whether the pollen count is reaching such a level that your allergies might kick in. Beyond this, cellphones are likely to become an even more dependable security blanket for people. They already serve as a useful instrument in the event your car breaks down on the freeway, but two recent articles offer additional glimpses into how cellphones of the near future might function. Audi is now installing cellphones into its cars that will snap a picture of the the thief in the event your car is stolen, and in Japan women are now downloading recordings designed to ward off “gropers.”
Such applications are just the beginning. It has been said that the average dentist can diagnose 156 diseases just by looking at your mouth. In the future, your cellphone might not be able to accurately diagnose that many diseases, but it’ll probably get pretty close. I also think in the near future your cellphone will be able to accurately assess the level of stress in your voice and automatically dial the nearest police office if you yell for “help.” Who knows you might even be able to spray mace from your cellphone in the future.
Regardless, it is not hard to imagine how the cellphone will soon become the 21st century equivalent of the Swiss Army knife—a tiny device that can do a lot of different things. As we move toward a digital cash environment, I am confident that you will even be able to buy a beer using only your phone within the next few years. Now, if we can only get the phone to also open that bottle of beer then we’ll really be cooking!
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Hospitals Robotic Future
A few weeks back I explored in great detail how the field of robotics is transforming health care. Well, today, the New York Times published an excellent article on the same topic entitled ”Prepping Robots To Perform Surgery.” If you don’t have time to read the whole article, here’s the operative quote from Robert Glenning of the Hackensack University Medical Center in New Jersey: “If you are looking at the future, it’s hard to envision a hospital not offering robotics.”
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Is the Future Really Drying Up?
A few months back, the New York Times Magazine ran an article entitled, ”The Future is Drying Up” documenting the growing crisis over water in the western part of America. For the most part, it was a thoughtful and sobering look at a situation that desparately cries out for action. It is hard to argue with the fact that the region’s surging population is putting an enormous amount of pressure on the area’s dwindling water supply. The picture above of Lake Powell, alone, is quite telling.
Nevertheless, the article has a major fault: it barely touches on technology’s ability to help address—and potentially alleviate—this problem. Now, I’m not suggesting that people in the region should count on a quick, technological fix to their situation; but, at the same time, I believe it is silly to not acknowledge how various emerging technologies might help resolve this problem. More specifically, I take offense with the author’s suggestion that to even look at technological solution is, and I quote, “almost certainly the wrong way to think about the situation.”
To my way of thinking this is yet another example of linear thinking -- or what I describe as a view of the world that is almost incapable of understanding how emerging technologies might radically reshape the environment around us.
For example, new advances in sensor technology will help people better monitor their water usage. These same sensors can be used to more accurately price water. If people know both how much water they are using and how much it costs, my prediction is that water usage will decrease.
Secondly, because agriculture is the biggest source of water consumption, I find it troubling that the author didn’t at least acknowledge how new advances in genetically modified corn and wheat might lead to new strains of crops that need little water.
Third, new advances in wind and solar power might drive down the cost of powering desalination plants to the point where some water can be economically shipped from the Pacific Ocean to Arizona and Colorado. Related to this point, new advances in nanotechnology might also improve filtering technology. Again, such advances might make desalination a more viable solution.
Finally, new advances in nanomaterials could lead to some very innovative applications in how people get there water in the future. For instance, this piece explains how researchers are studying how the African beetle can collect water droplets from the air. The implication is that large swaths of the material (which would mimics the beetle’s wing) might capture enough water everynight to fill a bath tub or wash a load of clothes.
Again, I want to make it clear that I am not advocating people take no action to address this serious problem, my point is that when assessing any situation it is important to view the world not just as it is today, but as it will be in 10, 25 and 50 years.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Don’t Incrementalize Yourself into the Future
Knowledge, it has been said, is the key to success. It is a statement that is hard to disagree with unless you buy into that old adage that ignorance is bliss. Proceeding on the assumption that if you believed the latter you probably wouldn"t be reading this blog, I will go farther out on a limb and state that for years one of the world’s better recognized fonts of knowledge has been the Encyclopedia Britannica--a reservoir of 30,000-plus pages of information replete with titillating tidbits of data about everything from atoms to zettabytes.
In the late 1990s the revered encyclopedia came under assault from a new form of media distribution--the CD-ROM. Able to store vast amounts of information in a more convenient, colorful, and vivid fashion, Encyclopedia Britannica was forced to deal with this new competitive threat and proceeded in good haste to provide its information in a similarly fresh, snappy, and visually pleasing format.
By 2001 the company was back on its feet and headed down the sweet path of profitability. No sooner, though, had that storm passed when another began forming on the horizon. But just as a hurricane begins with a single molecule and is not immediately discernible, so was this one.
The storm was called Wikipedia, and it started in 2001 with nothing more than 100 encyclopedia-like entries drafted by a few amateurs and posted to a Web site. It seemed innocent enough. After all, how likely was it that a bunch of strangers, working for free, could someday produce an encyclopedia that would rival the esteemed Encyclopedia Britannica in terms of depth, breadth, and accuracy. It sounded about as plausible as a few molecules in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean turning into a Category 5 hurricane.
Yet in late 2005 Wikipedia smashed into the Encyclopedia Britannica. That year the prestigious scientific journal Nature announced after a comprehensive study that the average entry in Wikipedia was nearly as accurate as the typical Encyclopedia Britannica entry.
The advantage is still in Encyclopedia Britannica’s favor, but how much longer will it be able to withstand the gale force winds? The answer: not much. That is because we are now living in a world of exponential advances, and the scales are tipped in Wikipedia’s favor.
To begin, the very subject matter of the encyclopedia, which is to say knowledge itself, is growing exponentially. It has been said that human knowledge is doubling roughly every seven years. This leads to the almost ridiculously sounding (but mathematically verifiable) conclusion that by 2050 everything we know today will represent less than 1 percent of the sum total of the world’s knowledge.
Even if one disagrees with this statement, it is difficult not to acknowledge that radical advances in medicine, physics, chemistry, and biotechnology are changing both the content and value of the material in encyclopedias and that the old print-and-publish method of storing and displaying such information is, if not obsolete, at least impractical.
Neither a printed encyclopedia nor even a CD-ROM can react to this volume of change. Only Wikipedia, by posting information directly to the Internet, can respond in a timely fashion.
Wikipedia also has the advantage in terms of human horsepower. Advances are happening so fast, in so many different fields, that it is virtually impossible for the staff at Encyclopedia Britannica to keep pace. The challenge is not nearly so great for Wikipedia because it doesn’t have a staff. Instead it relies on a self-selected universe of experts and enthusiasts to keep track of all of these developments. (To this end, Wikipedia now has over 7 million entries in 200 different languages.)
Third, Wikipedia has a distinct economic advantage. Not only does it not need to print its material in either book or even CD-ROM format, it doesn’t need to pay an army of researchers and writers or underwrite the cost of housing any physical resources or employees.
The final kicker is this: Even if the Encyclopedia Britannica decides to put all of its content online for free, most people will still go to Wikipedia because its content consistently shows up near the top of most search engines.
What Encyclopedia Britannica is facing is a severe reaction to the exponential economy, but it is not alone. In fact, if history is any guide, a number of other companies, institutions, and organizations will soon be facing a comparable amount of change in the not-too-distant future.
What this means is that in order to survive in the Expoential Economy, we should all heed the words of Kurt Yeager, who once offered this sage advice: ”In periods of profound change, the most dangerous thing is to incrementalize yourself into the future.”
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Our Accelerating Future
The other day I explained why society doesn’t always absorb new technologies as fast as early advocates often believe will happen. As with almost every issue, there is another side to the story and I’d now like to argue why emerging technologies will be adopted at an ever accelerating rate.
Ray Kurzweil addressed this issue in his outstanding book, The Singularity is Near, when he noted that the rate of “paradigm shift” is doubling every decade. As a historical analogy, he noted that it took 35 years before 25% of the population adopted the telephone. The radio took about 31 years; the television 26 years; the personal computer 16 years; the mobile phone 12 years; and the World Wide Web only 10 years.
Since then Google, Wikipedia and a number of other social networking applications have been adopted in an even shorter amount of time. This acceleration, however, has not been limited to only communication-related devices. Robotics are being adopted at an accelerating rate. In 2005, only 1% of all prostatectomies were performed by robots. Today, over 50% of all such operations are performed using a da Vinci surgical robot.
The fields of rapid prototype manufacturing and systems biology are also experiencing acceleration. To this end, I encourage you to watch the short two-minute video on the fab@home project (an open source rapid prototype manufacturing platform) as well as read this excellent interview with biotechnology guru and system biology advocate LeRoy Hood.
What I find interesting about the Fab@home project and Hood’s project is that they both are open-source initiatives. And of all the things that are enabling the accelerating adoption of technology—and there many: better tools, faster computers; new materials, improved bandwidth, etc.—the open source movement is the most powerful of them all. This is because brilliant and innovative minds from all over the world are now being given direct access to the information and the technology necessary to improve products.
This access, in turn, yields better and more information and technology. Essentially a “virtuous cycle” is created and it amounts to a process whereby evolutionary design is speeded up.
And, in order to survive in this new environment, people must adopt these new technologies at an accelerating rate. To paraphrase Charles Darwin, it is not the strongest or the fastest that survive—it is those who can change and adapt the quickest. Therefore, I would argue, the accelerating adoption of new technology is nothing more than the manifestion of that most human of instincts: survival.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Enlarge Your Mind to an Idea that is Out of This World
(Editors Note: Earlier today, my colleague at Future Blogger, Dick Pellitier, had a thoughtful piece on the prospect of a space elevator. I would like to add my two cents to this debate. The following article was written this past fall and originally appeared on TechCentralStation).
In the fall of 1825, New York Governor DeWitt Clinton boarded the Seneca Chief and traveled 500 miles from Buffalo to New York City to mark the opening of the Erie Canal. It was the beginning of an enterprise of immense economic and political significance in that it expanded the reach of American commerce and established New York as one of the world’s leading financial centers.
It is easy, in retrospect, to think the canal’s success was ordained from the beginning. It wasn’t. In 1810, when DeWitt Clinton, then mayor of New York City, first proposed building the 363-mile, 83 lock canal, Gouverneur Morris, responded by saying “Our minds are not yet enlarged to the size of so great an object.” Another Founding Father, Thomas Jefferson, was more biting in his criticism, writing to Clinton, “It is a splendid project, and may be executed a century hence. It is little short of madness to think of it this day.”
Jefferson’s reasoning was solid. The project was budgeted to cost $6 million—a sum then equal to three-fourths of the federal government budget. In fact, the scale of the project was so massive that it was determined it would be the biggest public works project since the Great Pyramid and would consist of digging and removing over 11 million cubic yards of earth. It is no wonder that many decried it as “Clinton’s ditch.”
Fortunately, Clinton persisted and while he wasn’t able to persuade the federal government to support the idea, he did win over the citizens of New York and in 1817 the state legislature approved the funding for the project.
Amazingly, the canal was completed on October 26, 1825—two years ahead of schedule. More impressive still, the state’s debt off was paid-off in a decade’s time.
With this little bit of history in mind, let me now introduce you to a modern-day equivalent of the Erie Canal: the space elevator.
To many, the idea of constructing an elevator into geosynchronous orbit might be, to echo the words of Jefferson, a splendid project a century hence but little short of madness today. Nevertheless the idea is beginning to elicit consideration from a growing number of serious scientists.
In its simplest form, the elevator would consist of a ribbon of super-strong carbon nanotubes be tethered to a large platform located near the equator and attached to a space structure at the other. To get from earth to space a cab would climb the ribbon. (Further details can be found at http://www.spaceelevator.com)
Without question a great many obstacles must be overcome in order to achieve this vision, but they are just that: obstacles. They are not barriers. Ironically, as with the Erie Canal, the greatest barrier may not be technical in nature but rather political—namely, our leaders (and perhaps our country) have lost their ability to think big.
But like the Erie Canal, a space elevator would be more than just a testament to good old-fashion American ingenuity and know-how. It would have broad, practical economic and political ramifications. For instance, just as the Erie Canal lowered the cost of shipping a ton of flour from $120 to less than $6, a space elevator could similarly open up space by radically reducing the price of hauling the equipment and supplies into orbit. Today, it costs anywhere between $10,000 and $20,000 to launch a single pound of material into space. With a space elevator, replacing and updating the communication and satellite infrastructure upon which modern society is now so dependent would be fast, inexpensive and easy.
Beyond this, if America is serious about establishing a permanent presence on the moon and, ultimately, Mars; this country will need a dramatically more efficient process for delivering cargo and personnel into a space. Our present system of using individual rockets is about as efficient as hauling flour by horseback.
It has been estimated that a space elevator can be built for $12 billion. It is a large amount of money to be sure, but so too was the Erie Canal. Thanks, however, to some farsighted and courageous leadership a profitable canal was built and, in the process, it turned the course of history. How fitting then if on October 26, 2025—the bicentennial of the opening of the Erie Canal—America could send a group of people into space on an elevator. It is possible but first we must enlarge our minds to “so great an object.”
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Hospitals Get a Lift
Hospitals, nursing homes and an assortment of age-related facilities are suffering from severe worker shortages, and the problem is only expected to grow worse as workers in their late 50s and early 60s begin to retire and as American continues to age.
Technology is going to be a big part of the answer and this short video shows how a convergence of robotics and laser technology could help disabled patients take care of themselves:
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