Jump The Curve Archives: 10/2008

Boo! You Can Only Jump the Curve So Far

As readers of this blog know, I’m a huge fan of exponential growth. In fact, it is the underlying premise behind the notion of “jumping the curve.” As I point out in my book, however, it is important to understand that exponential growth has its limits. To this end, and because it is Halloween today, I’d like to consider the case of vampires.

Distressingly, a large segment of the American public still believes in vampires. Luckily, vampires existence can be quickly disproved by exponential growth. Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that the world’s first vampire came into existence on January 1, 2004 and it bit one victim on February 1, 2004. If this scenario continued—such that the two vampires then bit two more victims each full moon—by March of 2008 all of the world’s 6 billion-plus residents would be vampires. They would now need to either begin sucking the blood of other animals or begin exploring space in search of new victims.

If you don’t believe me, do the math. Happy Halloween!

Interested in another interesting example of exponential growth? Check out this old article:

Do You Believe in Tooth Fairies?

The Power of Zenzizenzizenzic

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Controlling Infectious Disease

Earlier today, on my other website, I explained how nanotechnology-enhanced clothing might help fight infectious disease. No sooner had I finished that article than I came across this article explaining how next-generation nano-sensors will help diagnose infectious disease even quicker. The combination of the two technologies won’t eliminate infectious disease, but they should allow hospitals and disease-control specialists to minimize the damage that increasingly drug-resistant germs (as well as other harmful biological agents) can cause.

Interested in other healthcare-related posts by America’s leading health care futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these recent articles:

The Future of Healthcare: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift

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All-State Insurance Jumps the Curve

All-State Insurance is now sending video games to customers between the ages of 50 and 75. According to this article, “ten hours of game playing turns the clock back 10 years in terms of memory, useful field of view, processing visual information, and general cognitive functions.” More important, the technology could reduce the risk of a crash by 50 percent.

As America continues to age, and as seniors become increasingly comfortable with video-gaming, the push to use technology in new and innovative ways will only increase. The companies that embrace this trend stand to profit handsomely.

Interested in other insurance-related articles by America’s top futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out this past article:

Insuring the Future

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The Future of Education is Converging All Around Us

One of the biggest and most exciting trends in technology is that of “convergence”—or how different technologies will combined with one another to create entirely new devices. These devices, in turn, will go on to change human behavior in unique and unexpected ways.

Convergence, as a trend, is nothing new. The printing press did not materialize out of thin air. First, paper, and then ink, and ultimately moveable type had to be created before Gutenberg could create his historic device. The radio, television, computer and Internet are also the result of a convergence of various technologies.

To this end, I recently came across three articles on three different technologies which, when they converge, could change everything from how we educate and entertain ourselves to how key aspects of our economy operate.

The first is virtual reality technology. This insightful article from TechCrunch discusses the new “RealityV experience” developed by Intelligence Gaming. It is part virtual reality and part video and it is now being used by the Army to help soldiers train for real-world situations—such as dealing with a hostile crowd in a foreign country.

The video below provides an excellent overview of the technology:

The second article reviews the extraordinary advances being made in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Amazingly, in a recent contest, in 25% of the cases human judges thought they were communicating with a person when in fact they were conversing with a computer! This technology, of course, is only going to improve and as it does we should expect computers—as well as robots and avatars (in virtual reality settings)—to play a more active role in our lives.

Finally, there was this article discussing how the IEEE is now developing standards for “body area networks.” One promising application of this technology is to create interactive billboards. In essence, the billboard will know when you are in its presence and it will deliver a tailored message directly to you.

This is both exciting and a little creepy, but I am more interested in how this interactive technology will converge with virtual reality and AI. When it does I can easily envision virtual reality education pods which can helping students learn in new subjects and topics in a more exciting and engaging manner. I can also envision hyper-active, 3-D video games which respond to our every move. I can also envision homes, schools and retails outlets needing to be fundamentally redesigned in order to best utilize the convergence of these three technologies—virtual reality, AI and body networks.

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S.C. Johnson Walks the Escalator

Earlier this month, I explained how supercomputers are becoming a more practical business tool. To this end, this recent article entitled ”Crude Calculations” got me thinking about how manufacturers might employ these new beasts.

For one thing, as oil prices continue to stay high, the decision of where to locate a manufacturing facility is no longer so clear cut. This is because every $10 increase in the price-per-barrel of oil adds 4 cents per transportation mile to a product. This isn’t a big deal if it is a high margin product, but for lower margin items it could be a make or break decision. By running through a series of calculations a supercomputer could, however, help a company arrive at an optimum location.

Another area where supercomputers can play a useful role is in truckload utilization. S.C. Johnson & Sons saved $1.6 million last year by combining multiple customer orders and products to load the fullest, best-configured trucks possible. Is it possible your organization can also “jump the curve” by utilizing supercomputers?

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Want to Go Faster, Close a Road

I live in a major metropolitan area and the traffic situation drives me crazy. If someone then told me that they were going to close a road in order to reduce traffic congestion, I’d likely think they were either crazy or stupid. As I mention in my book, Jump the Curve, emerging technologies can, however, often throw people—myself included—for a loop. This story is a perfect case-in-point.

One would think that perfect information on traffic conditions would lead to an optimization of people’s personal travel time. Alas, this is not the case. In fact, people’s commutes in major cities such as Boston, London and New York can be reduced by 30%, 24% and 28% by selecting the “social optimum” choice. And, if people are reluctant to select the “social optimum” route because it defies conventional wisdom, local governments or traffic departments can always choose to close a road or two and force them into a better (i.e. faster) choice. Of course such a scenario smacks of Big Brother-like socialism and makes the civil libertarian in me cringe, but if you read the article you’ll at least understand the logic behind such a counter-intuitive policy.

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Your Main Job

Recently, I came across this informative article, ”Intel Reboots for the 21st Century.” It’s an interview with Intel’s CEO, Paul Otellini. Two quotes jumped out at me. The first one was: “A CEO’s main job is to see the need to change before anyone else does.” It’s a wonderful quote because it is so true. The second quote, though, is no less valuable. Otellini paraphrases Intel’s old CEO, Andy Grove, who once said, “You won’t believe how long it takes for the change you’ve started to work its way all of the way through the rank and file.”

The reason both quotes are important is because it is not enough “to see the need for change” first. It is vital that executives “work” the need to change. And to achieve this I am of the opinion that the CEO must not only be a part-time futurist (and see what is coming next), he or she must also become their organization’s “chief unlearning officer.”

One of the big reasons that change takes as long as it does is because employees, customers, institutions and, yes, even leaders must often first unlearn what they think they know before they can change and incorporate a new idea or adjust their practices to a new way of doing things.

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