Jump The Curve Archives: 11/2008

Giving Thanks to Robots

This Thanksgiving I’d like to pause and give thanks to robots. But, as this hilarious video from The Onion suggests, we may want to be careful what we ask for:

For slightly more serious articles on the future potential of robots, check out some of my other postings:

Learn from Robots
Meet Your Future, Shape-Shiting Robotic Butler
Hospitals Robotic Future
Will Robots Have Tails?
Is the Future of an ATV a Robot
The Robot Will See You Now

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IBM’s Five Future Predictions for the Next Five Years

IBM has put together a nice, short two-minute video outlining five technologies that will become more pervasive over the next five years:

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The Future of Water: Unfiltered

Late last week, it was announced that NASA had, pardon the pun, pissed away $154 million by creating a urinal/water fountain system that didn’t work. To witness how a more simple technology can have huge implications down here on this planet, watch this amazing video (Note: it is a little graphic, but one must remember that these are the real life conditions under which billions of people must actually get their water):

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The Shape of Things to Come: Foldable Cellphones

Often, trying to explain how the emerging field of flexible electronics will change future devices is a little hard to explain, but if you want to see a glimpse of what cellphones might look like in the near future watch this short two-minute video of a new Samsung prototype device:

Interested in other other articles by America’s leading telecommunications futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these past articles:

The Swiss Army Phone of the Future
More Cellphones = Fewer Roads
The Future of Telecommunications in Six Videos

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The Next Household Appliance?

Did you know that there is eight times as much water in the atmosphere as there is in all of the world’s rivers? I didn’t, but you probably do know that water is becoming an increasingly scarce commodity in many parts of the world.

Therefore, the answer to the world’s water problems could, quite literally, be pulled out of thin air. This, at least, is the hope behind an innovative new company, Element Four, which has manufactured the “WaterMill”—a device it hopes will become the first mainstream household appliance to have been invented since the microwave.

At $1200, the technology is still expensive—especially in these lean economic times—but it will undoubtedly drop and, as it does, it stands a realistic chance of becoming a household appliance in some regions of the world.

If the idea sounds crazy, ask yourself this: Twenty years ago would you ever have imagined people would willingly pay $3 for a bottle of water?

Interested in other articles about the future of the home by America’s leading futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these recent articles:

The Future of the Kitchen
Throw Out the Kitchen Sync
The Future of Construction is Three-Dimensional

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Augment Your Reality in 3-D

I don’t know if you’re like me, but even though I have a massive pile of paper on my desk I can often find exactly what I’m looking for. One reason for this is because the brain has a spatial organizing system. The accelerating rate of technological change is making it increasingly difficult for me to organize all of the information I have.

No need to worry, researchers at the University of Massachusetts are now developing a personal organizing system that allows people to organize digital records in 3-D. The example cited in this article is the idea of posting a receipt for a business trip to Paris next to a photo of the Eiffel Tower. The device that will allow you to do this is the cellphone which, as this video shows, is becoming very good at facilitating “augmented reality.”

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Lockheed Martin Jumps the Curve

Last month, I traveled to Dallas to give a keynote presentation to Lockheed Martin on environmental issues. At the time, I encouraged company officials to begin exploring opportunities in the “clean tech” area in an effort to diversify its business away from the defense/aerospace business. Although I’m sure my recommendation had nothing to do with the decision, I’m was glad to see that Lockheed Martin is now busy designing a new Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion device which could provide America with a vast supply of cheap, clean and sustainable energy. It could even make desalination technology more a viable technology by addressing the high energy cost part of the equation.

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The Zoo of the Future

In my book, Jump the Curve, the final chapter is dedicated to the idea of “doing the impossible.” In short, it is my contention that unless you internalize the notion of accelerating change you will dismiss as “impossible” many things that will be imminently possible tomorrow due to the exponential nature of technological progress.

A wonderful case in point is this fascinating article from today’s New York Times claiming that it might soon be possible to regenerate a Wooly Mammoth for $10 million because DNA sequencing technology is continually getting more inexpensive.

Regardless of what one may think of the moral and ethical wisdom of recreating Wooly Mammoths, it is imprudent to dismiss the idea as impossible. Yet this is precisely what Rudolph Jaenisch, a biologist at the Whitehead Institute, has done by proclaiming the idea: “a wishful-thinking experiment with no realistic chance for success.”

To my mind this quote is eerily similar to that of another expert, Lord Kelvin, who famously announced in 1899 that “Heavier than air machines are impossible.” Of course, as we all now know, just four years later the Wright Brothers proved him wrong.

With this in mind, is it possible that in 2012 the New York City Zoo might have a new addition to its line-up—such as the once extinct Wooly Mammoth? Don’t be too quick to dismiss the idea. (It’s too bad that Michael Crichton, author of Jurassic Park, didn’t live to see this day. But, as I think he knew, yesterday’s science fiction often has a way of becoming tomorrow’s science fact.)

Interested in other some farfetched articles by America’s most provocative futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these past posts:

10 Reasons We Will to 1000
What’s Impossible?
The Future of Reading

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Supercomputers Will Require Unlearning

I have written before the amazing and growing power of supercomputers (here and here), but this article makes a compelling case that supercomputer simulation will soon become the “third branch of science” and that the growing power of these beasts will rival the invention of the microscope in their impact on science.

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Voice Recognition Technology Takes a Baby Step into the Future

Late yesterday, Google released a very cool new mobile application which employs voice recognition technology. The question is not so much what the technology can do today, the question is what will the technology be able to do in the near future—and how might it change education, health care, and a host of other daily activities?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on how this technology could unfold and how it might alter people’s behavior. Below are my initial thoughts:

Here’s Google’s own YouTube clip on its new technology:

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A Tale of Two Videos

Last week, I showed you two photos which demonstrated how far mobile telecommunications had progressed in the past 17 years. I would now like to show you two videos that portend how far video and haptic technology will likely come in the next few years.

The first video comes is Stanford University and it is clear that you will soon be able to easily embed video and photos directly into your own video or, alternatively, on to any flat surface. The implications for the advertising industry alone are staggering.

The second video is even cooler and it offers compelling visual evidence that certain aspects of the “Minority Report” are no longer science fiction, they are science fact. Education and video gaming will never be the same when this technology becomes affordable.

g-speak overview 1828121108 from john underkoffler on Vimeo.

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The Power of Creative Play

If you want a handful of helpful suggestions on how to “jump the curve” by engaging in the power of play, I strongly encourage you to watch this outstanding 27-minute presentation by Tim Brown. It is chalk-full of examples of how to help make people more creative. Key concepts include: focusing on quantity (not quality); building/playing with things with your hands; and engaging in role-playing.

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Self-Cleaning Grocery Carts?

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What Size Are Raindrops in Space?

One strategy for “jumping the curve” is to engage your inner-child and begin asking silly questions again—much as you may have when you were a young child. To this end, two NASA engineers recently wondered what would happen if they popped a waterballoon in space. Time will tell whether this question yields any interesting or practical scientific results, but in the meantime they have produced a pretty cool video. Enjoy ...

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Retailers: Using Technology to Build Trust

Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal ran an article describing how some grocery chain retailers are now using sanitized washing machines to disinfect grocery carts. (Surprisingly, shopping carts are among the dirtiest public places.) From one perspective this an excellent way to establish a high-level of trust with a store’s customers. From another perspective, it could send an unintended signal to customers that its shopping carts are somehow dangerous and thus could end up being counter-productive.

So, what is a well-intentioned grocer to do? One answer could lie in the esoteric field of nanotechnology. A number of new nanomaterials are now being made that have self-cleaning and even anti-microbial properties. Therefore, a more elegant solution to germ-ridden grocery carts, could lie in constructing them out of nanomaterials. (In this way, the carts could simply clean themselves without drawing any unwanted attention to the cleaning process.)

This is just one example of how new emerging technologies can help retailers establish a higher level of trust with customers. Best Buy and other retailers are now deploying kiosks in their stores that allow customers to conduct quick and easy price comparisons with competitors products. Even though many people do extensive research online before they make a purchase or can use their cellphone to do the same thing, the kiosks sends a great signal that Best Buy is using technology to bring a higher level of transparency to its business. Imagine further then that the kiosks can dispense an electronic coupon to match or better the competitors price. How far would that go in developing trust?

In the near future, RFID technology will also be deployed to enhance trust. Many consumers are becoming increasingly interested in the entire life cycle of their meat and agricultural products. With RFID technology consumers can learn everything from the farm that a chicken was raised on; to whether it was fed any antibiotics; to how long it was in transport before it arrived on the retailers shelf.

As wireless technology, RFID and in-store electronic displays all become more prevalent, the opportunity exists for retailers to build an ever deeper level of trust between themselves and their customers. The only question is whether retailers are willing to embrace the immense opportunity sitting before them.

Interested in other grocery-related articles by America’s leading retail futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these past articles:

Tesco Jumps the Curve
The Future Face of Retail
Watch What You Eat—Literally
The Future of the Grocery Store
Retailers are Beginning to Jump the Curve
Pump It Up: Retailers Use Google to Bolster Customer Loyalty
RFID Gets Untracked

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Hospitals Wireless Future

Last week, I was in Atlantic City to keynote Verizon Wireless’ annual “Lifescience & Healthcare Summit” and moderate two panels on how wireless technology is transforming healthcare. Because I’m a firm believer that pictures (or in this case video) speak louder than words, I’d encourage you to watch this short video of how researchers at John Hopkins are using the iPhone to visually display medical images:

This is only the tip of proverbial iceberg. Just yesterday, Google announced it was unveiling a new ”tool” to help citizens spot flu trends two weeks sooner than the government’s current system; and Philip’s announced that it had created a new “intelligent” pill which can be programmed to control the delivery of medicine according to a pre-defined drug release profile. In addition to delivering drugs directly to the site of the disease, the pill can also wirelessly transmit information about the patient’s condition.

The two events signal a promising future for wireless technology in the healthcare sector, but it is just the beginning. I have written before about how advances in genomics and RFID are transforming healthcare. In both cases, wireless technology will take these technologies to the next level.

For example, it is unrealistic to expect either patients or doctors will be able to process—let alone understand—the wealth of genomic data that is poised to begin flooding the market in the next few years. Wireless technology can help patients better understand, manage and utilize genomic information by storing the data on the cellphone and then allowing users to deploy sophisticated algorithms to allow them make more intelligent decisions about what foods to eat or products to buy; while doctors can use social networking tools to compare notes (on genomic-related information) with their peers while also using mobile technology to stay abreast to the latest advances in the field.

Similarly, as hospitals such as the Mayo Clinic and others begin to deploy RFID technology for everything from asset tracking to patient record management, it is clear that wireless mobile communication tools will be the conduit by which healthcare professionals harness and process the data that those tags are sending.

In oder to reduce the escalating healthcare costs in this country, it is imperative that consumers take more responsibility for their own health care and that society engage in more preventative healthcare. In both instances, wireless technology can be a big part of the solution. The trick will lie in convincing healthcare adminsitrators that investments in IT-related infrastructure will be worth the effort.

Interested in other health care-related posts by America’s leading healthcare futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these recent articles:

The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift

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From Defibrillators to Digestable Pills

For more information (and a higher quality photo of the digestable “Intelligent” pill, I refer you to this article.)

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More Cellphones = Fewer Roads

About the only thing I hate more than being stuck in traffic is being cut off by some idiotic driver who is yakking away on his or her cellphone and, thus, isn’t paying attention to the road. It might then surprise you to know that I’d actually like to see more cellphones being used by drivers, in part, because they might lead to the need for states to build fewer roads. (Yes, you heard me right, fewer roads.)

To understand this counter-intuitive logic, I’d refer you to this article in today’s Technology Review entitled ”Tracking Traffic with Cell Phones.” It explains how data from cellphones can be retrieved from people’s cellphones (in a manner which doesn’t violate their privacy) but can then be used to provide real-time traffic data.

If drivers can then use this real-time data to adjust their driving habits it is entirely possible that traffic congestion will be lessened and states won’t need to build more roads. Instead they will figure out how to use existing roads more efficiently.

Interested in other articles by America’s leading transportation futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out this recent article:

Want to Go Faster, Try Closing a Road

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From Pretty Woman to the Unemployment Line

Dear Readers:

I’m now in the process of trying to incorporate more short videos into my website. Below is my first attempt. The quality of the video is a little low, but I’m confident you’ll enjoy the content. If you have suggestions for how I can improve the product, please leave a comment or email me at jack@nanoveritas.com.

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A Tale of Two Photos

Sometimes it is hard to forget how much change we have experienced in the recent past. To better help illustrate the point, I’d like to show you two photos. The top photo is from the 1991 hit movie, Pretty Woman. To demonstrate that Richard Gere’s character was a super successful businessman they showed him using a then state-of-the-art technology which was beyond the realm of the average person: the cellphone.

Fast forward to 2008. On the cover of this past Friday’s Wall Street Journal was a photo of an unemployment line in Spain. What was fascinating was that three of the people standing in line were using their cellphones. (Note: The photo to the right is not the photo that was published in the paper.)

My point is this: Technological progress has a way of taking yesterday’s elitist and expensive technology and converting it into a commodity-like necessity for the next generation.

In the next ten years what expensive technologies do you think will become inexpensive? Some of my predictions include: flexible solar cells; rapid prototype manufacturing machines, “Kindle"-like electronic books, and medical diagnostic technology.

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Change is in the Air

After almost two years of campaigning, it is finally here: Election Day! Change is in the air, but not for the reasons one might expect.

Regardless of a person’s preference for Obama, McCain, Nader or one of the other candidates, I don’t actually believe they (or any politician for that matter) will be the primary instrument of change in the near future. That mantle will instead belong to technology.

Let me just provide a quick glimpse from the world of technology through the lens of a single day—today.

I began my morning by reading this article on a “solar power game changer.” The piece describes how a new antireflective coating now allows for the “near perfect” absorption of sunlight. In other words, society is one step closer to solar technology replacing a number of conventional energy sources. Politicians can clamor all they want about “clean coal” and “more drilling” but my hunch is that technological advances will render their opinions and policy suggestions moot.

Next, I stumbled across this article discussing a new ”heart-patching” technology. Combined with yesterday’s announcement by a Medtronic official that the “medical device industry is done,” it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that health care is quickly moving in the direction of preventative care.

Finally, over the weekend 60 Minutes ran a fascinating story describing the advances in brain-computer interface technology. If you didn’t see it, I strongly encourage you to watch it below. After you have done so, ask yourself this: How much do you think society will change by the time we vote again for president in 2012 and 2016?

Now, I believe in democracy and I believe it matters which individuals (and which political parties) control the White House and Congress, but our elected officials should spend less time promising that they will “deliver” change and more time helping society prepare for the change that is coming because it is going to be massive.

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Future Flash with Jack Uldrich

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The Future of Medical Devices

This past week, Stephen Oesterle, an executive at Medtronic gave a sobering keynote speech on the future of medical devices—and, if you’re in the medical device industry, the news wasn’t good. According to the Wall Street Journal’s Health Blog, Oesterle was quoted as saying, “When biotechnology gets it right we’re finished. Because it’s restorative, not palliative as device are.” If the message still wasn’t clear to his audience, he then added, “It’s done. [Medical] devices ultimately are done.”

Undoubtedly, Oesterle’s message will get him in “hot water” with more senior executives at Medtronic, but his message is one that needs to be heard—and heeded. The pace of technological change is accelerating and this is especially true in the field of biotechnology. Medical devices executives can either bury their heads in the sand or they can embrace this reality and begin looking for new ways to improve people’s lives.

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