Jump The Curve Archives: 03/2009

The Building and Construction Industry’s New Reality

Yesterday, I was working with a client in the buildings and trade industry as they were preparing for a strategic planning session with a group of their senior executives. I reminded them that they needed to face a new reality -- one that is separate from the current economic crisis.

As technology continues to evolve, society—due to advances in everything from biotechnology to stem cell research—will grow older. As such, residential builders need to seriously think through the needs of their future consumers. It is a mistake to think that the future needs of seniors will be the same as seniors today. In the near future, people living to 85, 90 and even 100 (and beyond) will be healthier and stronger than their counterparts today.

They are, however, just as likely to live on fixed incomes. So what does this mean? For starters, it will mean that they want to be protected from fluctuating energy costs. As a result, homes will need to integrate advanced solar cells, smaller “roof-top” wind turbines, energy-efficient nanomaterials, and smart meters.

Seniors will also want to maintain their independence, so builders will need to think through how advanced sensors, RFID technology, robotics and new multi-touch sensors will enable and foster self-sufficiency.

The current climate is tough and better days are ahead for the industry. Nevertheless, the industry will face new challenges in the future and the time to be thinking about those challenges (which are also opportunities) is now.

Related Posts

The Future of Construction is Three-Dimensional
Printing the House of the Future
Concrete’s Solid Future

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The Future is Our New Reality

John Seely Brown, John Hagel and Lang Davidson recently wrote an article entitled ”The New Reality: Constant Disruption.” The basic premise isn’t new to anyone who has read Jump the Curve or The Singularity is Near, and that is that society is now headed into a new era whereby change is a constant and accelerating reality. This is replacing an era where disruption was followed by periods of stabilization. In other words, in the past, people, businesses and society often had an opportunity to catch their breath and develop and orchestrate plans before the next new paradigm-shifting technological change arrived.

If you doubt this radical transformation is real, lets just use today, March 31, 2009, as an example. Today, Intel released its next generation computer chip, the Nehalem. According to this article it is a “major game changer” because of its powerful new capabilities and the fact that it uses significantly less energy than previous chips.

This announcement was followed by news that a new company, Tendril, is now using existing off-the-shelf technology to make “dumb” electrical meters “smart.” The new “smart meter” industry, which is itself only a few years old, thus finds its once promising business model already under attack.

There was then this article suggesting that Skype is about to enter the mobile cellular market. As it does, wireless carriers, which should have seen the writing on the wall for years, are about to come face-to-face with a technology that views phone calls as nothing but data and should therefore be priced no different than the information flowing over the Internet—which is to say nothing!

Elsewhere, in the field of farming and agriculture, there was this announcement that a researcher has figured out how to grow a number of different crops using only one-fifth the water and no soil. (If not using soil to grow crops isn’t disruptive, I don’t know what is.) And, in the field of robotics, there was this report announcing that Honda is now using human thoughts (via brain-computer interfaces) to control the action of robots.

Each of the aforementioned technologies is only going to get significantly better. As they do, old ways of doing business will fall by the way-side and new business opportunities will emerge. This scenario is both frightening and exhilarating. The challenge for the Exponential Executive is to quickly and safely navigate his or her organization through these turbulent waters.

The first step is to act. As one of my favorite leaders of all-time, General George C. Marshall, once told his subordinates “get action where action is needed.” In other words, the primary responsibly of any leader is to act. In this era of accelerating change, it is easy to postpone action for want of perfect information or because “tomorrow things will be different.” It is true, things will be different tomorrow, but people will still need products and services and problems must still need to be addressed today. The bottom-line is that a less-than-perfect solution now is often better than a perfect solution later.

Secondly, the Exponential Executive needs to learn to embrace ambiguity, and perhaps the greatest such ambiguity is that failure can be a positive characteristic. To succeed in this new era, organizations must be willing to not only risk failure but actually reward it.

There is no possible way every organization is going to do everything right. To succeed boldly, organizations must be willing to fail boldly; and when those risks don’t work it is important to learn from the mistakes and not punish them.

The edge is a dangerous place and few people like to venture out there but that is where the future will take place. In order to encourage and cultivate employees who will venture out to the edge, the Exponential Executive must encourage action and recognize that “failure is an option.” Why? Because if you don’t act and instead attempt to avoid failure, you are likely to fail anyways because the future is here—now! That’s the new reality.

Related Posts

Dangerous Curves Ahead
Think 10X, Not 10%
Develop a Future Bias

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Innovation, Not Regulation: Jack’s Interview on The Small Business Advocate

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Introduction to Chapter 5: The Power of Play

Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.
--Albert Einstein

Sit down before fact as a little child, be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abyss nature leads, or you shall learn nothing.--Thomas Huxley

A couple of years ago, just after turning forty, my wife asked me what I would like for Christmas. Normally I stumble over such questions, but this year I knew exactly what I wanted: juggling balls.

“Like the kind you might see a little kid playing with?” she asked.

“Exactly,” I responded with all the enthusiasm of five-year-old sitting on Santa’s lap

“Okay,” she replied, shrugging her shoulders. I think she was just relieved that while my midlife crisis was decidedly juvenile in nature, at least it was an inexpensive crisis--no expensive convertible sports car or fancy big-screen plasma TV.

“Don’t you want to know why I want juggling balls?” I inquired.

She could see from the twinkle in my eye that I was dying to tell her, so to humor me she replied, “Why?”

“Because I just read an article that said that 95 percent of everything we have learned about the human brain we have learned in the just the past twenty years. Isn’t that extraordinary?”

Impatiently, she said, “I thought you were going to tell me why you wanted juggling balls for Christmas.”

“I was,” I replied, undaunted. “Beginning jugglers can increase the volume of their grey matter by more than 3 percent according to a study I just read.”

Continuing on in the expectation that this might not sufficiently impress her, I gushed, “Other studies have suggested that juggling may actually increase creativity by causing your brain neurons to fire in new ways.”

Figuring my head could probably use a little retooling, she granted me my Christmas wish, and for the better part of Christmas Eve I recused myself from my in-laws and practiced juggling.

The task started easily enough as I followed the directions, which told me to practice with just one ball until I had mastered tossing it in a perfect arc from one hand to the other. Having accomplished that within a minute, I next added a second ball to my repertoire, and not long afterward I was tossing two balls back and forth with the grace of an acrobat.

I was now ready to juggle, or so I thought. The task of adding the third ball was far more difficult than I had imagined. I finally had to give up Christmas Eve--actually it was 1:30 A.M. Christmas morning when my wife pleaded with me to come to bed because she knew our children would be waking in a few hours to see what Santa had delivered.

Neuroscientists have since offered me an explanation for my compulsive behavior that evening as well as the following day when I spent about as much time practicing my juggling as I did playing with my children. Some scientists speculate that when we attempt to learn something new, certain chemicals are released as our brain tries to establish new neural pathways. In the right doses, these chemicals can create a pleasurable sensation. These good feelings create a kind of positive feedback loop. (They also helped me persist in the face of hundreds of dropped balls.)

To this day, I can still recall the satisfaction I felt upon finally juggling the three balls with some consistency. Alas, almost as quickly as my own kids grew bored with their gifts, I, too, grew bored with juggling. I can and still do juggle on occasion, but it no longer provides that early feeling of euphoria. Part of the reason is that the neural pathways necessary to perform the task have now been wired, and there is no need for any chemicals to be released.

The point of this story is that the feeling of euphoria that accompanied my learning something new is analogous to what a young child feels on an almost daily basis as he or she is first experiencing and learning about the new world. Children, it has been estimated, begin their life with approximately 1 quadrillion synaptic connections, but as they adjust to their environment--and learn what is and isn’t useful, practical, and important—they lose up to 20 billion synaptic connections a day.

The good news is that this neural plasticity does not just disappear in adults. It can be revived and reactivated, but it requires mental exercise--such as I was doing when I was learning to juggle. Therefore, this chapter is entitled the “The Power of Play,” and it is all about revitalizing the connections that were so necessary for learning as young children because life in the exponential economy will require an extraordinary amount of new learning.

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Futurist Jack Uldrich Offers Compelling, Entertaining Keynotes

To help potential speaking clients better understand how I present complex information in an insightful, entertaining and informative manner, I have compiled a series of recent video samples. If you are interested in booking me for your next conference, seminar or event, please contact any of the following speakers bureaus: Leading Authorities, International Speakers Bureau, The Executive Speakers Bureau, Convention Connection, Brooks International or Five Star Speakers.

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Jump the Curve Strategy #13: Catch a Wave

(Note to my readers: As promised, I am slowly putting all of my 2008 book, Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies to Help Your Company Stay Ahead of Emerging Technologies, online. Today’s installment is “Catch a Wave.” The previous 12 strategies are posted below.”

On January 26, 2006, a NASA satellite flying in geosynchronous orbit detected hurricane-force winds developing in the North Pacific. Using supercomputers to digest and process the data, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that massive waves would reach Half Moon Bay, California, on February 7. Organizers at Mavericks, the world famous surfing location, immediately sprang into action and sponsored a surfing contest, and officials at NBC agreed to cover the event live.

The humongous waves arrived as predicted. Using a proprietary wireless mesh network and cameras with 70x zoom lenses, NBC then sent those signals over a fiber-optic cable to the parking lot in Mavericks where thousands of fans watched the surfers ply their trade on a gigantic plasma screen. Hundreds of thousands more watched the action live on the Web via video stream that was transmitted with a directional antenna. As if that weren’t enough, NBC later aired the footage on the 7,000-square-foot screen in Times Square so that the citizens of the Big Apple could gain an appreciation of the actual size of the waves that confronted the surfers that day.

The story is a wonderful example of using existing technology to walk the escalator. But just as the waves of Half Moon Bay grew exponentially larger prior to breaking, so too are all of the aforementioned technologies. To survive in tomorrow’s exponential economy will require more than just walking the escalator. It will require running very fast and jumping extraordinarily high to survive.

With that in mind then, let us return to a time when running and jumping were part of our daily routine--our childhood. As you will see, many of the skills we left behind from that era will have to be relearned in order to effectively jump the curve.

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Jump the Curve Strategy #12: Think Small, Very Small
Jump the Curve Strategy #11: Park ‘n Save with Robots
Jump the Curve Strategy #10: Get in Touch with All of Your Sensors
Jump the Curve Strategy #9: Follow Your Hunch
Jump the Curve Strategy #8: Run the Numbers
Jump the Curve Strategy #7: Reorganize Your Data Storage Closet
Jump the Curve Strategy #6: Let the Computer Do It
Jump the Curve Strategy #5: Bet On It
Jump the Curve Strategy #4: Just “Wiki” It
Jump the Curve Strategy #3: Look to the Kindness of Strangers
Jump the Curve Strategy #2: Take a Bird’s Eye View of the World
Jump the Curve Strategy #1: Learn to Spell Zenzizenzizenzic
Introduction to Chapter Two: The Power of Zenzizenzizenzic
Welcome to the Exponential Economy: Prepare to Jump the Curve
Introduction to Jump the Curve

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Jump the Curve Strategy #12: Think Small, Very Small

The term nanotechnology often brings to mind Star Trek episodes or conjures up futuristic images of nanobots patrolling our bloodstream in search of deadly cancer cells. While such nanobot-like devices are, in fact, under development, the reality of nanotechnology is, for the time being, slightly more prosaic. The profits it is producing, though, are not, and a number of companies are employing nanotechnology to “walk the escalator” today.

Nano-Tex, a manufacturer of nanofibers, has been treating, among other things, the pants of Eddie Bauer, Lee Jeans, and Perry Ellis for almost four years now. The company’s nano-whiskers, as they are called, infuse the pants with amazing stain-resistant properties. Since 2004, when it treated 20 million pair of pants, the company has now increased that total to an estimated 100 million enhanced-garments.

Nano-Tex and other companies are also treating upholstery and carpeting with nanoparticles, and hotel and restaurant chains are using these fabrics to reduce cleaning bills and limit the frequency with which they have to replace furniture. According to Wilbur Ross, the owner of Nano-Tex, sales of nano-enhanced textiles will grow from $11 billion in 2007 to $120 billion in 2011.

Another industry using nanotechnology today is the paint and coating industry, which employs nanoparticles to create self-cleaning and scratch-resistant paints. In one interesting example, DuPont has teamed up with a small nanotechnology company, Ecology Coatings, to create something called a “liquid solid.” Because the coating can be applied so thinly and so quickly, it is expected to cut the material and energy-related costs of painting automobiles by 75 percent and 25 percent respectfully. As an added benefit, because the nanoparticles also eliminate the use of industrial solvents, it removes the need for the company to obtain environmental permits and comply with certain costly regulations.

Almost everywhere one turns these days, the advances of nanotechnology can be spotted. In 2005, the Food and Drug Administration approved the first drug using nanoparticles; in 2006 Nanosolar, a company using nanoparticles to manufacture a new thin-film solar cell, broke ground on a massive manufacturing facility; in 2007 IBM and Intel both announced that they would be reformulating their recipe for silicon at the atomic level to improve the speed of existing computer chips by 20 percent while also cutting down on energy consumption by a factor of ten; and last year Nokia announced it intended to employ nanotechnology to make next-generation cellphones.

Exponential Insight

The application of the smallest of sciences can lead to some very big improvements in product performance--and profits. For instance, self-cleaning windows and materials can help a number of companies cut down on maintenance costs, and better-insulating nanomaterials can cut down on a business’s energy consumption. Alternatively, nanotechnology can adversely impact a number of existing businesses. Consider the impact on the dry-cleaning business as billions of garments begin to be coated with stain-resistant nanofibers or the impact of scratch-resistant paints on both the automobile repair business and the insurance industry. If you operate in an industry where the profits are razor thin, the emerging science of the small--nanotechnology--might be able to protect and pad those margins.

Related Posts on Nanotechnology

The Nano Song: A Quicker Primer on Nanotechnology
15 Ways Nanotechnology is Already Making Your Life Better
Nanotechnology & The Future of the Cellphone
Nanotechnology and the Changing Face of the Electric Utility Industry

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The Nano Song: A Quick Primer on Nanotechnology

In 2003 I wrote the best-selling book, The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. The book was intended to be a layperson’s guide to an often intimidating and complex subject—nanotechnology. The fine folks at Nanomonster have now done me one better and produced a short, simply 3-minute video that even a kindergartner can understand. Enjoy!

The Nano Song from nanomonster on Vimeo.

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15 Ways Nanotechnology is Already Making Your Life Better
Nanotechnology & The Future of the Cellphone
Nanotechnology and the Changing Face of the Electric Utility Industry

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Jump the Curve Strategy #11: Park and Save with Robots

If you have ever lived, worked in, or visited New York City and had to get around by car, you understand what a hassle parking can be. You might be happy to learn that in 2007 a company opened a new robotic parking garage. What makes the system so special--besides the fact that you no longer have to relinquish the keys to your new sports car to a testosterone-charged teenager--is that the system is so efficient that it can fit sixty-seven cars in a space that previously held only twenty-four. It is able to pull off this feat by packing cars closer to one another (there is no need to leave space to open a car door) and by doing away with ramps and other superfluous maneuvering space. When you consider that it costs roughly $25 a day to park in New York City and multiply that figure by the number of additional cars such a system can handle, it provides some modest idea of how robots can help some businesses “walk the escalator.”

All across the emerging field of robotics, similar opportunities for cost savings are emerging. Robotic vacuum cleaners and floor scrubbers are helping building maintenance companies cut down on janitorial costs; Staples and Walgreens and others are now using robots to transform their warehouses; and the military is now employing robots to disarm roadside bombs and patrol dangerous areas. The video below demonstrates how versatile these robots are becoming:

And, as was mentioned in an earlier post on the future of robotics in health care, robots are now performing more than 50 percent of all prostatectomies. Less understood is that these robotic systems are so good at what they do that patients often have significantly shorter recovery times due to the precision and delicacy with which the robots perform the surgical operation. In more practical terms, this means shorter hospitals stays and fewer nurses to watch over the patients. It also suggests that hospitals can free up more doctors, nurses, and beds to serve other needier patients.

Exponential Insight

Whether you are looking to squeeze a little more efficiency out of an existing operation, fighting a new battle, or are just trying to clean up around the office better, a growing number of robots are available to “walk the escalator” with you.

Related Posts:

Robots: A Major Game Changer
Your Robotic Future?
Robots: A Major Game Changer?Our Robotic Future
The Future of Hospitals (Robotics)
The Robot Will See You Now

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Here Comes Intelligent Medicine

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The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating
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The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
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The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift

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Jump the Curve: The Internet in 5000 Days

The following TED presentation by Kevin Kelly is now more than a year old, but for anyone interested contemplating where the future of the Internet is headed I highly recommend it.

I especially like Kelly’s statement, which he makes early in the presentation, that we “have to get better at believing the impossible.” I’ve written about this theme on numerous occasions (see the posts below), but Kelly makes an excellent point. Today, the power of the Internet is the equivalent of just one human brain. Through the power of exponential growth, it will—within two decades time—equal the collective power of 6 billion human brains.

Folks, this isn’t the equivalent of linear growth. This is a quantum shift and it adds great weight to Tim Berner-Lee’s recent quote about the current Internet being only the “tip of the iceberg.”

Related Posts on Doing the Impossible

Is a $20 Laptop Computer Really Impossible?
A Healthy Disregard for the Impossible
What’s Impossible?

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Oh Say Can You See … The Future of Retailing

The Economist recently published its “Technology Quarterly” which, for my money, is one of the best ways for a lay person to stay abreast of the amazing changes under-foot in technology. A case-in-point is this insightful article, ”Machines that can see.” I recommend every retail client read it.

On the more practical side, retailers and food manufacturers are now using technology (in the form of expression-analysis software) to pinpoint how testers really react to new foods—as opposed to simply relying on what the testers say they thought about the new product. Longer-term, the same software will help advertisers target ads to individual customers in the grocery store. For example, beardless men will receive ads for razors.

Why it is even predicted that the technology will soon help prevent “sweethearting” and bar-code switching.

In a business with razor-thin margins, this is just the type of technology that could make or break a retailer.

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The Future Face of Retail Advertising
Tesco Jumps the Curve
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Retailers are Beginning to Jump the Curve
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Move Over George Jettson. Here’s My Flying Car!

Had you been fortunate enough to be at Kitty Hawk on December 17, 1903 and witnessed the Wright Brother’s first ever flight you may been a little underwhelmed. That’s because the flight only lasted 12 seconds and traveled 120 feet. With this comparison in mind, I now invite you to watch (below) the maiden flight of Terrafugia’s “flying car.” It may not look like much today, but if you “jump the curve” and envision future cars that are made of lighter, stronger materials and are loaded with intelligent software and embued with networks of sensors, it is easy to imagine how the technology will soon get much better.

Now, I don’t expect to be taking off from my driveway anytime soon but, within a decade, I believe I’ll be able to drive to, say, a regional airport and take-off and fly to another regional airport that is 100-200 miles away, and then land and drive to my final destination.

One implication is that this technology could change certain people’s living habits and work patterns.

Related Post

Dude, Where’s My Flying Car?

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Beware of Icebergs! Innovation is Accelerating!

This past weekend I read this brief article about Tim Berners-Lee on the 20th anniversary of the World Wide Web. Here’s the operative quote, “The rate of development and innovation on the web is actually getting faster and faster all the time. The web is not all done. It’s just the tip of the iceberg.”

Berners-Lee is absolutely right, and this is why we need to focus on unlearning. As I say in this piece describing the implications of accelerating innovation, this is why we need to beware of growing icebergs.

P.S. To better appreciate the accelerating nature of the Internet consider this: The World Wide Web is 20 years old, Google is 10 years old; Wikipedia is 8, FaceBook is 5 and Twitter is only 2.

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Follow the Future and Win a Kindle 2

(Note: My regular posting for March 13, 2009 is below. If you’ve already read about the contest, you can just jump to my latest “Jump the Curve” strategy here).

As someone who focuses on the future professionally, one might accuse me of missing the bus and not being more hip to Twitter sooner than I was. (I didn’t begin Twittering until January 2009.) I plead guilty to the charge and will offer no lame excuses.

After Twittering for a month and then reading this illuminating piece in Techcrunch, the business and social value of Twitter has become clearer to me. Therefore, in an effort to make up for lost time and increase my number of followers, I have decided to heed my own advice on the value of prizes as well as that of uber-Twitter Kevin Rose’s on the wisdom of starting a contest as a method of increasing one’s followers. (See tactic #7)

More specifically, I have decided to offer a new Amazon Kindle 2 to a randomly selected follower once I attain 5000 followers. There is nothing inherently magical about 5000 followers, I just felt it was an ambitious yet attainable goal. (Here’s a list of 10 reasons you—or may not—want a new Kindle 2.)

If you are reading this posting for the first time, I would greatly appreciate it if you would tweet this offer to your followers. If you have stumbled across this post due to Twitter, I’d sincerely appreciate it if you would consider retweeting it. Don’t know what either Twitter or a retweet is? Just click on the associated link.

The reason I have chosen a Kindle as the prize is because it is symbolic of the work I do as a business/technology forecaster and public speaker—in that I help organizations discern (or “read") the future. All of my tweets are geared toward this end. Thus, if you have even the slightest interest in the future—and I sincerely hope you do because it is, after all, where all of us will spend our remaining time on this planet—I’m confident you’ll find value in following me. Also, I’m happy to follow you back—especially if you’ve got some interesting, informative, innovative, insightful or just plain entertaining to say.

To ensure that I really do offer a new Kindle, I will conduct a live drawing on LiveCast and announce the winner’s name and then later post the recording of the event to my YouTube account. (Note: In the interest of fairness, my current followers will also be eligible to win as it wouldn’t be fair to unnecessarily penalize them just because they began following me early.)

P.S. To the regular readers of Jump the Curve, between now and April 15, 2009, I will be working on updating the 2009 version of my book, Green Investing: A Guide to Making Money through Environment-Friendly Stocks. As a result, I won’t have as much time to devote to my regular blog. To keep your attention, however, I will be publishing the entire version of Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies to Help Your Company Stay Ahead Emerging Technologies online at this site. Each day you can expect at least one new “strategy.” I also invite readers to continue to follow my daily (and hourly) thoughts on the future at twitter.com/jumpthecurve and/or subscribe to my free monthly newsletter, The Exponential Executive.)

I hope you enjoy the book, and I appreciate your patience! Below is the post for today, March 13, 2009.

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