Future Technology Blog | Jump The Curve

Can Google & Twitter Help Predict the Future?

Posted on Apr 30, 2009 - 08:54 AM

The current recession has been particularly hard on two industries: travel and real estate. Professionals in these industries might be interested to know that the Internet’s latest exponential sensation, Twitter, might not only help them predict their future, it—along with Google real-time web search—might help those industries recover sooner by helping them better target their existing resources.

According to this fascinating article in New Scientist, Google researchers and economic forecasters have used information gleaned from Google and Twitter to discern what people were thinking or doing at any particular moment and used that data to more accurately assess their intentions.

For example, real-time searches of Twitter or specific websites could help real estate agents know what features, price points or locations are on the top of people’s minds right now. In the same way, tourism officials could use real-time search to better target their ads to lure customers to their destinations.

None of this targeting is new. What is new is that the information taken from Twitter and Google offers faster and more accurate predictions—up to 15% more accurate.

My prediction: Those businesses that learn how to employ real-time search will be the ones most likely to still be in business in a few years. And, to help predict this outcome, I intend to Tweet this post.

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Train Your Mind to See Different Views

Posted on Apr 28, 2009 - 04:32 PM

Over the past year, the image of the “dancing lady” (to the right) has floated across the Internet in a viral fashion. Its popularity is due to the fact that some people see the image turning counter-clockwise, while others see it moving it a clockwise direction. (The general theory is that those people who see it moving counter-clockwise are more analytical in nature, while creative types see it moving clockwise.) The truth, of course, is that the figure is moving both directions simultaneously.

I like the image because it is a good visual metaphor for learning how to embrace two different ideas at the same time—a trick the Exponential Executive will need to learn if he or she is to successfully jump the curve into the future.

As F. Scott Fitzgerald once said, “The test of a first rate mind is the ability to hold two diametrically opposed ideas in your head at the same time.” If you can’t yet see the dancing figure turning both ways yet, I’d suggest that you stick with it until you can because the skill will serve you well in dealing with tomorrow’s future.

P.S. If you need a little help seeing both directions (as I did), this cheat sheet might help:

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Future Flash with Jack Uldrich: 100 Years

Posted on Apr 25, 2009 - 10:45 AM

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Jump the Curve: Apr. 24, 2009: “Unlearn Your Worldview”

Posted on Apr 24, 2009 - 01:51 PM

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A Glimpse into the Future

Posted on Apr 24, 2009 - 01:22 PM

The future is difficult—if not impossible—to predict. One reason is because technologies converge into another and often spin out in different directions. Below are a series of short videos covering advances in haptic technologies, facial amination, robotics, nanotechnology, rapid prototype manufacturing and voiceless communication (i.e. brain-computer interfaces). Now, start “mixing and matching” these technologies in your mind. If you do, I think you’ll get at least a small glimpse of how different the future is going to look.

g-speak overview 1828121108 from john underkoffler on Vimeo.

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Will the Learners Unlearn?

Posted on Apr 23, 2009 - 11:09 AM

I have written about the future of college before. However, after reading this article suggesting that universities will be irrelevant by 2020 my interest has been piqued again.

Let me begin by saying that I am not a disinterested bystander to this issue. My children are now in the 2nd and 4th grades, respectively, and I would love for college to irrelevant by 2020—if for no other reason than to save me a boatload of money.

I do not believe college will be completely irrelevant by 2020 for two reasons. First, I believe that college is still an important venue for learning. This learning, however, has little to do with the learning typically associated with the classroom and more to do with learning how to socialize with one’s peers in an environment outside of the home. Now, there is absolutely no reason why young people can’t—and won’t—learn many of these “life skills” elsewhere; I just think many will choose a college setting because it is safe and familiar.

The second reason college will still be relevant in 2020 is because parents, educators and community leaders simply can’t envision a different future. In short, it will take them a long time to unlearn their idea of college. As a result, the transition to college becoming “irrelevant” will occur over a longer timeframe than the article suggests if, for no other reason, than society is generally resistant to change.

Don’t misunderstand me, though. At some point college as we now know it will be irrelevant. (This date will likely occur in inverse proportion to the degree that colleges and universities continue to inflate tution).

Knowledge deserves to be free and it has, for all practical purposes, now reached this point. In the future, it won’t matter where you received your degree; what will matter is your ability to demonstrate knowledge.

Related Posts

The Future of College

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The Future of Healthcare is as Near as the Phone

Posted on Apr 21, 2009 - 09:18 AM

I often speak to healthcare associations and this past fall I gave the keynote presentation at a Verizon and Alcatel-Lucent conference on the future of wireless technology for the healthcare industry.

Perhaps, not surprisingly, a key theme I emphasized was wireless technologies ability to fundamentally alter how certain services are provided and, in the process, drive down costs.

To this end, I’d like to share two articles from today’s new that reiterate these points in spades. The first article, ”Remote Monitoring of the Heart,” is from Technology Review and it discusses how new wireless sensors when combined with the cellphone can radically reduce the number of hospitalizations which occur due to heart failure. According to one doctor the technology ”could save $20 billion in hospitalizations each year.”

The second article, ”Mobile Clinical Imagining On a Smart Phone,” highlights how innovative researchers at Washington University in St. Louis have found a way to using off-the-shelf technology to convert a smartphone into an imaging device. The potential to quickly and inexpensively scan a patient’s kidney, liver, bladder or almost any other body part from remote distances is quite amazing. The ability for professionals in rural areas to be trained in how to use this technology could reduce the need (and the cost) for many patients to travel to urban clinics or hospitals for evaluation.

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Robots: The Ultimate Killer App?

Posted on Apr 20, 2009 - 04:37 PM

P.W. Singer, the author of “Wired for War,” provides an excellent overview of how far robotics have already advanced in this provocative TED presentation:

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Jump the Curve to a New, Astounding View

Posted on Apr 17, 2009 - 02:22 PM

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The Future of Aging

Posted on Apr 16, 2009 - 09:04 AM

Early next month, I will be giving a presentation to the Wisconsin Association of Homes and Services for the Aging entitled “Jump the Curve to a New Future: 38 Ways Long-Term Care and Senior Housing Will Be Transformed in the Coming Decade.”

As a sort of preview of the presentation, I’d like to share two trends that were in the news this week. The first is that in the near future the bones of seniors will be much stronger than they are today thanks to new bone-boosting drugs now reaching the market.

The second, and somewhat related trend, is that those seniors who no longer can walk will soon be assisted by “wearable” robotics as this video amply demonstrates:

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Unlearn Your Mindset

Posted on Apr 15, 2009 - 11:27 AM

Until yesterday, I had no idea who Ellen Langer was. Now, I find myself wanting to purchase her forthcoming book, CounterClockwise, along with some of her other books, including Mindfulness and The Power of Mindful Learning.

My fascination began when I stumbled across this article in Newsweek entitled ”Just Say No to Aging,” which profiles her new book. Two items, in particular, caught my attention. First, a group of men were asked to imagine that it was 20 years earlier. This, however, was no ordinary exercise. The men were actually taken to isolated retro-fitted New England hotel and instructed to act as though they were two decades younger. (Party like it’s 1989!)

Langer’s findings were amazing. After just one week the men in the experimental group had more joint flexibility, increased dexerity and less arthritis in their hands. In other words, just by thinking they were younger they felt younger!

This is not an isolated example. According to this article, Langer conducted a similar experiment with hotel chambermaids. The maids were separated into two groups. Both groups did the exact same work only one group believed they were getting exercise with their work while the other group didn’t. The group that thought they were exercising not only lost more weight, they also experienced a drop in blood pressure.

Both studies strongly suggest that people need only “unlearn” their mindset in order to experience real changes in their health. Or, as I wrote in my book, Jump the Curve, people need to ”stop acting their age.”

Related posts on unlearning:

Unlearning Disease
Does the Pharmaceutical Industry Need to Unlearn?
Is the Health Care Industry prepared to Unlearn?
Examples of Unexponential Thinking

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Jump the Curve Strategy #14: Stop Acting Your Age

Posted on Apr 15, 2009 - 10:51 AM

Many adults tend to think of play as an indulgence or, worse, a frivolous waste of time. I don’t know where this idea came from or when it first began creeping into popular culture, but to take advantage of the exponential economy, exponential executives must disabuse themselves of this notion.

Play has consistently been found to reduce stress, increase energy levels, brighten people’s outlook, increase optimism, and foster creativity. All are worthy goals and can help individuals do their jobs better, so the question is: Why don’t we play more?

I don’t know the answer to that question, but play has a rich and productive history and is the basis for much of our modern economy. Long before Alexander Graham Bell uttered his famous words, “Mr. Watson--come here--I want to see you,” to his assistant, he began his journey into the science of sound as a child by playing in the fields behind his family’s farm where he honed his extraordinary sense of hearing by trying to listen to wheat grow. That’s right, Bell would sit in the field and literally try to hear what the crop sounded like as it was growing over the summer.

One might only imagine what synaptic connections were being strengthened during this exercise, but Bell later followed up his curiosity about sound by pressing his lips up against the forehead of his mother, who was almost totally deaf, to make her bones resonate to his voice. In so doing, he found he could communicate with her. He was also now one step closer to imagining the new possibilities that carrying sound might create.

No less an exponential thinker than Albert Einstein also engaged in childlike thinking. The general theory of relatively, which has been hailed as the most important discovery of the twentieth century, came about in part because Einstein conducted a thought experiment and wondered what it would be like to ride a train through time. Few of us are as creative or brilliant as Alexander Graham Bell or Albert Einstein, but we should all heed Einstein’s words about never ceasing “to stand like curious children” before the world into which we were born.

Picking up on this theme, near the end of World War II, Vannevar Bush, the science advisor to President Harry Truman, wrote a report called “Science: The Endless Frontier.” The document is remarkable for a number of reasons, not the least of which is because in it Bush drew attention to the importance of supporting the “free play of intellects.” He stressed that scientists and researchers must be allowed to work “on subjects of their own choosing, in a manner dictated by their curiosity for exploration.”

Why did he propose this? It most certainly wasn’t born out of any sense of indulgence or luxury. At the time, America was still battling Japan in the Pacific, and the outcome of World War II remained unknown.

Rather it was because Bush knew that the country would need additional breakthrough ideas in both warfare--in the event the atomic bomb didn’t work (which at the time was a very real possibility)--and economics if America wanted to retain its new standing in the global economy. In short, Bush’s memo to the president was not the product of an idealistic theorist; but rather that of hard-headed realist. Scientific and intellectual “play” were absolutely critical to the United States long-term prosperity and survival.

The message is even important today. Executives and managers who feel the speed and pace of globalization dictate that they, their employees, and their companies “play” less are drawing absolutely the wrong conclusion. Play is an essential life skill.

Why are humans among the few animals that play? It has been theorized by some that play is an integral form of learning. It allows people to practice skills they might need later down the line. But play goes beyond such life skills. When we play we gain practice manipulating things and controlling the outcome of events. We also devise new solutions for old problems and create new endings for our experiences.

Exponential Insight

Alan Kay once said, “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” One way to jump the curve and begin inventing new things is to return to your childhood roots and begin juggling new things around in your mind, listening for new sounds in odd places, and engaging in some old-fashioned free play. You will be surprised at the connections you make.

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The Exponential Banking Executive

Posted on Apr 13, 2009 - 01:24 PM

(Editor’s note: The following article was recently written, along with Kendall Colman, for the Colorado Banking Association.)

We both have young daughters. As a way of imparting financial wisdom on them at an early age, we asked both of them after they lost their first tooth which they would rather receive from the tooth fairy: $1 per tooth or a penny for their first tooth and then double the amount for each successive tooth. After we informed that all children have 20 baby teeth, they both readily opted for the $20 option.

It was a costly mistake because their twentieth tooth would have been worth $5242.88! Such is the power of exponential growth.

The lesson, which is a familiar one to many in the banking industry, is more relevant than ever because society is poised to enter what we call the “exponential economy.” There are a number of technological forces, including computer semiconductors, Internet bandwidth, and data storage capacity, which are doubling anywhere from every 6 to 12 months. Moreover, they are expected to continue doubling for at least the next decade.

Another interesting fact about exponential growth is that anything that doubles just ten times is a thousand times bigger than it was at the beginning.

This recognition requires today’s banking executives to become what we call “Exponential Executives.” That is leaders who understand that as impressive as past technological advances have been—the ATM, online banking and mobile banking, etc—they are just the beginning.

Banking interactions will continue to evolve as customers’ physical and virtual worlds become intertwined, and social networks and mobile platforms will transform customers’ banking experiences and expectations. Still other advances will create an environment where a premium is placed on unconventional thinking and risk-taking.

As we enter the exponential economy there are five skills which will help the Exponential Banking Executive navigate through these turbulent and uncharted waters.

#1 Partnering: The first doubling in exponential growth is always from 1 to 2. The same principal is at work for the Exponential Executive as they head out into a future that seems almost unknowable. Yet if one thinks about this idea of “going out into the unknown” it is not much different than what Lewis and Clark experienced 200 years as they began their exploration of the American West.

Think about it for a moment. How do you prepare for a journey in which you have no idea of what you might encounter; how long you will be gone; or even what skills you will need?

Not surprisingly, the first decision Meriwether Lewis made was to invite William Clark to become his co-leader.

Tomorrow’s banking environment is going to be equally complex and to survive it may be essential to bring on a co-equal who has skills and expertise in areas where you are less strong. This model of co-leadership is one CO-CEO’s John Addison and Rich Williams have applied at Primerica Financial Services for years.

#2 Jump the Curve: In 1996, Reed Hastings wanted to start a new business that sent movie videos through the mail. At the time, his business model didn’t work because VHS cassettes were prone to breaking and too heavy to send through the mail at an economical cost. Hastings, however, understood something his peers didn’t. He knew data storage was doubling every six months and that by 1999 the movie industry was likely to convert all movie rentals to a DVD format. In essence, Hastings looked at where the curve of technology was headed and began planning his move years in advance.

If one applies this same insight to many of today’s accelerating technologies, such as biotechnology, genomics, stem cell research and nanotechnology, it is clear that most demographers’ life expectancy predictions will be well off the mark. Barring a major disaster, I fully expect life expectancies will soon reach 80 and shortly thereafter 90—and, perhaps, even higher. The Exponential Banking Executive’ should be “jumping the curve” and preparing for this contingency today by developing products, services and tools that will serve this growing population.

#3 Embrace Ambiguity. There is the old saying that if something looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it must be a duck. The picture below is a duck, correct? Look again. When viewed from a different perspective it is also a rabbit.

The future must be viewed through the same lens of ambiguity. There is no question that the banking industry is in the midst of a severe crisis. But just as the Chinese character for the word “crisis” is comprised of the symbols for “danger” and “opportunity” so too is this present crisis also an opportunity.

The Exponential Executive faces the same reality as his or her peers, the difference is that he or she uses the situation to revisit old assumptions and fundamentally rethink how to do business in order to best serve their customers.

#4 Unlearn: Among the many trends that are doubling perhaps none is quite as astounding as the fact that scientific and technical knowledge is doubling every seven years. In other words, as impressive as everything we know today is, this knowledge will only equal half of what we will know in seven years—and just 25% of what we will know in 14 years!

From this perspective, it makes sense to think of today’s knowledge as the tip of the iceberg. Future knowledge is the equivalent of that portion of the iceberg that is presently underwater. As this new knowledge emerges over the coming years, one of the more difficult realities to accept is that it will make some existing knowledge obsolete. To prosper in the future then the Exponential Banking Executive must understand that unlearning will be just as critical as learning.

For example, as new wireless and virtual realities technologies become more prevalent how many branch offices will really be needed? And, if people are living significantly longer, are 15 and 30 year mortgages the most appropriate terms? Change is never easy but if one embraces “unlearning” the rationale for change becomes easier to accept.

#5 Believe in Doing the Impossible: Just over one hundred years ago the idea of human flight was dismissed as the pipedream of a small group of fringe scientists and hobbyists. Fifty years the idea of a “test-tube baby” was similarly deemed impossible. And just ten years ago the idea that people working for free could design and write an encyclopedia which was as accurate as the Encyclopedia Britannica but be twice the size (and doubling every year) and available in a 140 different languages would have been dismissed as implausible. Wikipedia, of course, is a reality today.

If the future teaches us anything it is that the impossible has a way of becoming possible. The Exponential Banking Executive understands this reality and by partnering, jumping the curve, embracing ambiguity and unlearning, they are willing to accept that the path into the future will always be murky; but they also know they possess the tools and flexibility to help shape and create their own future.

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Follow the Future and Win a New Amazon Kindle 2

Posted on Apr 05, 2009 - 09:40 AM

Dear Readers: From April 5 through April 12, I will be on vacation. During that time I will not be blogging. I will, however, continue to Twitter. As an enticement to encourage you to follow my tweets at twitter.com/jumpthecurve, I am offering you a chance to new a win Amazon Kindle 2. The full details are below.)

As someone who focuses on the future professionally, one might accuse me of missing the bus and not being more hip to Twitter sooner than I was. (I didn’t begin Twittering until January 2009.) I plead guilty to the charge and will offer no lame excuses.

After Twittering for a month and then reading this illuminating piece in Techcrunch, the business and social value of Twitter has become clearer to me. Therefore, in an effort to make up for lost time and increase my number of followers, I have decided to heed my own advice on the value of prizes as well as that of uber-Twitter Kevin Rose’s on the wisdom of starting a contest as a method of increasing one’s followers. (See tactic #7)

More specifically, I have decided to offer a new Amazon Kindle 2 to a randomly selected follower once I attain 5000 followers. There is nothing inherently magical about 5000 followers, I just felt it was an ambitious yet attainable goal. (Here’s a list of 10 reasons you—or may not—want a new Kindle 2.)

If you are reading this posting for the first time, I would greatly appreciate it if you would tweet this offer to your followers. If you have stumbled across this post due to Twitter, I’d sincerely appreciate it if you would consider retweeting it. Don’t know what either Twitter or a retweet is? Just click on the associated link.

The reason I have chosen a Kindle as the prize is because it is symbolic of the work I do as a business/technology forecaster and public speaker—in that I help organizations discern (or “read") the future. All of my tweets are geared toward this end. Thus, if you have even the slightest interest in the future—and I sincerely hope you do because it is, after all, where all of us will spend our remaining time on this planet—I’m confident you’ll find value in following me. Also, I’m happy to follow you back—especially if you’ve got some interesting, informative, innovative, insightful or just plain entertaining to say.

To ensure that I really do offer a new Kindle, I will conduct a live drawing on LiveCast and announce the winner’s name and then later post the recording of the event to my YouTube account. (Note: In the interest of fairness, my current followers will also be eligible to win as it wouldn’t be fair to unnecessarily penalize them just because they began following me early.)

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Healthcare is at the “Verge” of Something Big

Posted on Apr 03, 2009 - 10:17 AM

As a result of accelerating advances in wireless technology, sensor and RFID technology, and Web 2.0 open-source platforms, it is clear that technology, communication tools, and healthcare is about to converge in a way that will fundamentally transform the future of healthcare.

I am particularly excited about how this convergence will deliver better, more timely and, ultimately, more accurate healthcare information and, in the process, dramatically improve the quality of patients lives.

The revolution will begin slowly but it has already begun as I explained in this post. Innovative companies, including Nike, are already developing “smart” clothing that can allow consumers and their health-providers better methods for managing and tracking healthcare outcomes. As wireless technology continues to be embedded with pacemakers and other more sophisticated devices, the revolution will take another big leap forward.

Such diagnostic technology is just one component of the revolution. Soon, new social “apps” will be developed that will allow consumers to make managing their health more like a game than a chore. Imagine, for example, an application on your iPhone that tracks your caloric intake and then calculates the reduction into an estimated “life savings.” (In essense, the tool will provide an immediate and positive feedback loop to encourage the desired behavior.) Beyond such games, the ever-evolving world of social networking tools will soon also allow your friends and loved ones to track and monitor your health. Imagine receiving a text message from your granddaughter encouraging you to exercise more. My guess is that it will be much more effective than a call from your doctor.

As the advances in genomics continue to proliferate expect the convergence of a variety of technologies to step in and help healthcare professional manage this plethora of data. As the price of sequencing individuals’ genomes plummets it is unreasonable to expect healthcare professionals to have direct knowledge of all of this genomic information. One solution is likely to be the creation of new genome apps which doctors can readily access to learn about, say, all of the genes now associated with heart disease.

The second and more innovative solution is likely to develop around new “patient-based” networks which emerge to help patients take direct control of those unique illnesses and diseases which center around specific gene-related diseases. I have written before about “crowd-sourcing” but I believe the convergence of all of the aforementioned technologies will soon allow—and indeed necessitate—the creation of such “crowdsourced” networks to help people better understand and deal with their unique genetic make-up.

Finally, I would add that the future of healthcare is going to convergence in some very interesting—and unexpected ways—because of the diversity of companies now moving into the space, including Intel, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Google and Amazon. This list, of course, doesn’t even begin to take into account the thousands of smaller, innovative companies seeking to become the next big healthcare player.

Whichever Small company (or companies) does become the “next big thing,” my prediction is that they will have found their “sweet spot” at the convergence of technology, communication and healthcare.

You Are The Future .. So Act Like It!

Posted on Apr 02, 2009 - 09:34 AM

With apologies to Timbuk 3, sometimes ”the future is so bright, I’ve got to wear shades.” I’m positively optimistic about the future—and so should you.

Before I explain why let me say that, like many of you, I’m not immune to the economic downturn. My speaking engagements are off for the year and I recently had a publisher renege on a signed book deal.

I remain optimistic, however, because I realize the future doesn’t just happen to us. It is not the economy; a lack of money; technology; President Obama or any host of other factors that ultimately determine our future. The future is created by—drum-roll, please—us!

We are not passive bystanders to the future. We are active participants and it is through our actions that the future is ultimately created.

If you’re looking for some perspective and a good laugh watch this hilarious 4-minute video clip of the comedian Louis CK on the Conan O’Brien Show explaining why ”Everything is Amazing, and Nobody is Happy.” For a more inspirational video I recommend this 12-minute presentation by Ulei Gegenschatz. It is a tribute to the human spirit and a testament to the heights we can soar to (literally) when we have the capacity to dream and the courage to act.

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iPhone + RFID Technology: A Practical Tool for the Elderly

Posted on Apr 01, 2009 - 04:17 PM

As society grows older technology will increasingly be employed to meet the needs of our senior population. To this end, below is a cool video demonstrating how radio frequency identification technology (RFID) can help elderly people make calls from their iPhone. (Of course, voice recognition is a simpler and more elegant solution to this particular problem, but I suspect RFID technology will find other innovative uses.)

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Wrap Your Brain Around the Future

Posted on Apr 01, 2009 - 08:55 AM

Yesterday, I explained how fast the world is moving and suggested that we all need to adjust to a new reality of “constant disruption.” In keeping with this theme, I want to highlight three articles from today’s news. The first outlines a plan to create a “comprehensive” map of a mammalian brain. The ultimate hope is to map a human brain in order to better understand such neurodevelopmental diseases as autism, schizophrenia and depression. The second article highlights how a new advance in computer software might radically speed up the mapping process.

The significance of this is that while researchers in the first article are thinking that their project will takes years, the advance in the second article strongly suggests it will take much less time. In other words, the future will arrive sooner than expected.

However, researchers involved in both projects are unlikely aware of the work of yet a third group of researchers who, according to this article, are applying the enhanced understanding of the brain (which the researchers in the first two articles are creating) to build a new generation of intelligent robots which will have more versatility and perform a wider variety of jobs because their actions will actually mimic the human brain.

The confluence and convergence of different technologies is going to lead to some startling and astounding advances. It is time we all begin wrapping our brain around this new future.

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Global futurist and author Jack Uldrich offers essential strategic information on nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, RFID and many other future technologies to help you prosper as exponential trends converge at this unique moment in history.

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Jump The Curve Archives: 04/2009

Can Google & Twitter Help Predict the Future?

Train Your Mind to See Different Views

Future Flash with Jack Uldrich: 100 Years

Jump the Curve: Apr. 24, 2009: “Unlearn Your Worldview”

A Glimpse into the Future

Will the Learners Unlearn?

The Future of Healthcare is as Near as the Phone

Robots: The Ultimate Killer App?

Jump the Curve to a New, Astounding View

The Future of Aging

Unlearn Your Mindset

Jump the Curve Strategy #14: Stop Acting Your Age

The Exponential Banking Executive

Follow the Future and Win a New Amazon Kindle 2

Healthcare is at the “Verge” of Something Big

You Are The Future .. So Act Like It!

iPhone + RFID Technology: A Practical Tool for the Elderly

Wrap Your Brain Around the Future

Articles Listed by Industry

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