Jump The Curve Archives: 06/2009

The Future of Gaming

I can still recall the joy I experienced when I first played my brother in the game of Pong back in the mid-1970’s. (We played on an old black-and-white TV console in our basement.) It would have been difficult for me to imagine back then that sometime in the distant future, Pong and its video-gaming successors would ultimately be a bigger industry than all of Hollywood. Yet that is exactly what occurred in 2005 when revenues from video gaming surpassed the revenues of all the Hollywood blockbusters—combined.

I would now like to introduce you to a new “mind-control” game which will be out this fall from Mattel. I invite you to watch the six-minute CNET video below, but don’t concentrate on how crude the game’s underlying technology is today, rather imagine how much more advanced it and other “mind-control” games will become in the future.

My prediction is that just as Pong’s crude technology predicted the future success of video games; Mattel’s mind-control technology offers a similar glimpse into the future of next generation of gaming.

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Adopt a New Mind-Set

One of my favorite columnists, Janet Rae-Dupree, had an insightful article in her column a while back in theNew York Times. In it, she explained the difference between people with a “fixed mind-set” and those with a “growth mind-set.”

The difference can be summed up in how a person views the issue of talent. People with a “fixed mind-set” view talent as innate. Those with a “growth” perspective see talent as something that can grow over time.

What I found interesting was this paragraph:

”People who believe in the power of talent tend not to fulfill their potential because they’re so concerned with looking smart and not making mistakes. But people who believe that talent can be developed are the ones who really push, stretch, confront their own mistakes and learn from them.”

In a sense, the former are less likely to unlearn; while the latter have a more open perspective and are receptive to the idea that yesterday’s knowledge or dogma is no longer sufficient to address the new challenges of today.

The distinction is especially critical in hiring decisions. If you want to position your organization to compete successfully in today’s ever-changing and ever-accelerating world, you would do well to look not necessarily for the most talented but instead for those who are willing to unlearn and grow.

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Study Carneades

”I have what I call an iron prescription that helps me keep sane when I naturally drift toward preferring one ideology over another and that is: I say that I’m not entitled to have an opinion on this subject unless I can state the argument against my position better than the people who support it. I think only when I’ve reached that state am I qualified to speak.”

The above quote is from Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s right-hand man for more than 40 years, and it offers wonderful advice for anyone wishing to stay open to the importance of—as well as the need for—unlearning.

Munger’s practice of arguing opposite sides of an issue is a practice that dates back thousands of years. As Nassim Taleb recounts in his wonderful book, Fooled by Randomness, in 155 B.C. the Greek philosopher, Carneades, traveled to Rome to argue against a fine which had been levied upon the Athenians.

With unmatched eloquence, Carneades sang the praises of Roman justice and convincingly swayed his audience to the merits of his position. Alas, that was not the point he was trying to make. The very next day Carneades dissected his previous arguments and proceeded to persuasively convince the same audience that the opposite was true.

So where did Carneades really stand on the issue? We don’t know. But that doesn’t matter because what he wanted to advocate was a doctrine of ‘uncertainty of knowledge.” Carneades, you see, was a “radical skeptic” and believed that all knowledge is impossible to know, except for the knowledge that all knowledge is impossible. Or, as Taleb writes, “[h]e stood all his life against arrogant dogma and belief in one sole truth.”

Carneades, though, recognized he lived in the real world and realized such a philosophy would not be readily accepted—or easily tolerated—by a society in need of rules and structure. He, therefore, advocated the idea that “probabilities of truth” could be established, and that these probabilities of truth might reasonably guide society.

The philosophy calls to mind a quote from F. Scott Fitzgerald who once said: “The test of a first rate mind is the ability to hold two diametrically opposed ideas at the same time and still function.”

The ability to deal with ambiguity is not, however, a luxury reserved only for ancient philosophers and poets. In 1988, a study by the American Management Association found that the leadership characteristic most essential for steering organizations through troubled and complex times was “the ability to deal with ambiguity.”

One strategy for preparing for such ambiguity is, like Carneades, to know the opposing side of an argument was well as the supporting arguments. In this way, whenever new—and perhaps contradictory information—becomes available, the holder of the opinion (or position) can assimilate that information into their decision-making process. This, in turn, might make it easier to reverse a position in spite of having voiced support for it in the past. Why might this be so? Because the previous work in understanding the opposite view will have tilled and loosened the soil in which unlearning may take place.

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The Future of Reading

Reading. Most of us do it every day and it is so ingrained from such an early age that it is difficult to imagine that there is another way of doing it. Yet, there is.

Last summer, I had the opportunity to sit down with Adam Gordon, the vice president of marketing for Live Ink, to discuss his company’s revolutionary new technology—Live Ink.

Before explaining the technology, however, have you ever wondered why we read the way we do? That is, why do we read words in block text—such as you are doing at this very moment.

I am no historical scholar but I suspect the answer goes back thousands of years and it is partly dependent on writers need to make efficient use of limited resources. First, stone tablets; then papyrus and, ultimately, pulp-based paper.

In much the same way that the QWERTY keyboard has become the de facto way we write on computers —even though it has been demonstrated that there are more efficient and faster methods of typing -- the same can be said for how we read. But instead of dealing with one hundred years of established tradition—as in the case of QWERTY keyboard—printed text in block form has been around since Johannes Gutenberg printed off his first bible.

In the near future, however, the resistance to this long-held paradigm will begin to fade. I am not suggesting that printed block text will fade away overnight, but a convergence of technologies has now created an environment in which a different method of how we access the written word has been created.

Before I go any further let me first invite you to view a visual demonstration of Live Ink’s technology here. In its simpliest form, Live Ink displays text in shorter lines; breaks the text into grammatically meaningful segments; and then indents the text to cue the brain to key phrases within a given sentence.

What immediately appealed to me about Live Ink’s technology was the notion that written text as it was historically formatted was not optimized for the human mind. In other words, while it is true that we can read long line-by-line text that does not imply that it is necessarily the best way for the human eye to operate or for the human mind to comprehend written information.

Until recently there wasn’t much that could be done about this shortcoming. To make books compact and conserve limited resources, it helped to cram as many words onto a page as possible. Today, however, as ever more people access digital information on the Web; from their cellphones; Kindle-like electronic books; and, soon, other flexible electronic media, it will make sense to display information not as “we have always done it,” but rather in a manner that is easiest, fastest and allows us to retain the most information.

Company executives don’t make any claims that their technology improves the rate at which people read; they have, however, documented how their technology dramatically increases reading comprehension rates and eases strain on the eye.

I cannot often say with a strong conviction that I have seen the future; but, in the case of Live Ink, I truly believe I have seen the future of reading. Within a year or so, I fully expect my website—and thousands of others—to begin placing a widget on their site that will allow readers to access written information in a new, faster and more efficient manner.

(For the record, I am in no way involved with or have a financial interest in Live Ink.)

Related Posts by Jack Uldrich:

Paper Industry Needs to Turn a New Page

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To Understand the Future It Helps to Have a Brain

Last year, I had a posted suggesting that you didn’t need to be a brain surgeon to see where the future was headed in terms of robotic surgery. I still stand by this statement, but as this news story explains it will still be essential to have a brain.

I have written before about the amazing amount of progress being made in the field of brain-machine interface technology -- or the ability to control external devices by thought alone. But, as the article explains, the technology is probably far more advanced than most people generally recognize. And while it is cool that monkeys can now mentally guide robotics to feed themselves, and ALS victims can continue to communicate with loved ones by using their mind to control a keyboard, I think it is vital that everyone in business today ”jump the curve” and try to understand where this technology might be headed.

(If you wish you can go “bananas” and watch this 55-second video clip of the monkey using its brain to control the robotic arm to feed itself bananas by clicking here.)

For example, what are the implications if people can control simple robotic devices by thought alone? One possibility is that elderly people who wish to remain in their homes (instead of moving into assisted-living facilities) might be able to maintain their independence longer by merely “thinking” a robot to clear away their dishes or clean the bathroon.

I have also written about the exponential advances in self-driving robotic cars. While, at first, people will undoubtedly be reluctant to turn over the control of the steering wheel to a robot, is it possible that their unease might be alleviated if they knew they could take over control of the car simply by “thinking” about it?

To many people such ideas sound impossible, but if you understand where brain-machine interface and robotic technologies are in terms of their progress today and further understand the exponential advances these technologies are experiencing, I think you’ll see that your brain will be able to do a lot more than it is currently doing. At a minimum, I’d encourage you to just “think” about it.

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Pong and the Future of the President’s Brain

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A Final Lesson in Unlearning

”We simply do not know what the future holds.”—Peter Bernstein

Peter Bernstein, a best-selling author and risk management pioneer, passed away earlier this month. On Saturday, the Wall Street Journal ran a nice remembrance. I especially liked the final paragraph which read:

“Asked in 2004 to name the most important lesson he had to unlearn, he said: “That I knew what the future held, that you can figure this thing out. I’ve become increasingly humble about it over time and comfortable with that. You have to understand that being wrong is part of the [investing] process.”

It is a wonderful reminder of both the importance of unlearning—and the need to maintain some intellectual humility.

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The Future of Clothes is Small

A while back, I discussed how nano-fabrics would be big business, I still stand-by that assessment and, in fact, I am even more confident after reading this article which discusses how researchers at the U.S. Army Natick Soldier Research Development and Engineering Center are exploring how to employ nanotechnology to make multifunctional uniforms.

The advances that the center is investigating go well beyond what companies such as Nano-Tex are doing to make pants and shirts stain-resistant. Specifically, the Army is interested in incorporating batteries and sensors directly into soldier’s uniforms. Today, it has been estimated that the average soldier carries about 30-pounds of batteries into battle, and these batteries do everything from power night-vision googles, laser-range finders, advanced radios and networked computers. Obviously, it is important that these devices don’t run out of juice during the heat of the battle.

By directly incorporating nanomaterials into polymers and fabrics, the Army is hoping to either capture the photons from the sun to help keep the batteries powered longer or, alternatively, use the thermal heat generated from a soldier’s body to augment a battery’s longeveity.

The technology is still a ways off, but the Natick facility is reportedly close to testing some of these technologies out in the field. I would encourage executives in the clothing, textile and retail industries to keep abreast of these advances because in the near future I see people powering their iPods, laptops, cellphones and other electronic devices not just from the batteries in those devices but from the batteries in their clothing. It might sound odd today, but if you ”jump the curve” I think you’ll agree that it is almost destine to happen—just think after going for a long run with your Nike+iPod system that your device will come back with even more power than when you left!

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The Next Innovation: AI, Nanotechnology, Robotics

The following 4-minute CNBC interview with Peter Diamandis, founder of the X Prize, lends further credence to the idea that the private sector and good old American ingenuity will lead to the next breakthrough innovation in artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology and genomics. (I have also posted a few related articles on the topic of innovation below the video.) For people who fear that innovation in America is either a “laggard” (as BusinessWeek recently suggested) or dead, I would only offer the immortal words of Mark Twain who, when he was asked to comment on his death, replied “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” The same is true of innovation in America. If anything the best is still yet to come.

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The Future of Your Organs is in Mint-Condition

I was born in 1964. I tell you this because the other day I happened to see a 1964 Mustang in mint-condition. Perhaps because I had just gone out for a long-run and was feeling my age afterwards, I found myself wishing my body could be maintained at the same level as the ‘64 Mustang.

Well, I invite you to read this fascinating article on how much progress is being made in the field of tissue engineering because such a vision of “body” maintenance may soon be possible. Today, researchers are making new bladders and within a few years it is expected that it will be possible to grow new kidneys, livers, arteries and eventually even new hearts.

I don’t dismiss the societal, moral or ethical considerations of this technology but, as a professional futurist, I envision a day in the near future when many of us will be able to exchange body parts as easily as auto mechanics are today able to replace engine parts on a ‘64 Mustang—and keep that baby humming well down the road and into the future.

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Insuring the Future

A few months back while I was flying all across the country from Hawaii to Wichita to Atlanta giving presentations on nanotechnology, genomics and robotics to a variety of different industry associations, I had the opportunity to read Peter Bernstein’s best-selling book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.

Although it was written in 1996, I highly recommend it for anyone seriously interested in contemplating the future. This is because—for better or worse—the future will largely be determined by the insurance industry’s ability to understand—and thus underwrite—the future of various technologies.

For example, while I am personally optimistic about nanotechnology’s ability to create everything from scratch-resistant car panels to tailor-made drug delivery vehicles capable of killing cancer cells at an early stage, these products will not be commercially mass-produced until the insurance industry understands the environmental and health-related risks associated with new nanomaterials and nanoparticles.

Similarly, RFID (radio frequency identification) technology and nanosensors have the ability to create a host of wonderful applications. But until the insurance industry can adequately assess the potential dangers of how prolonged exposure to wireless technologies might impact people, the RFID industry could advance at a much slower pace than many people (including industry experts) expect.

The same is true for the rapidly emerging fields of synthetic biology and robotics. I have written before about the amazing potential of each to transform the energy, agriculture and automotive industries, but these things won’t happen until regulators and insurance professionals are comfortable insuring these technologies. For instance, while Craig Venter (a leader in the field of synthetic biology) is quick to dismiss the potential of some new artificial life form or “designer bacteria” escaping from his laboratory and wreaking havoc on an unsuspecting public, I’m not as confident the insurance industry will be as quick to dismiss the risk.

Regarding robotics, while it is easy to forecast that robotics will grow into a $50 billion industry within the decade—as Bill Gates has done—the figure could drop to a fraction of that amount if an iRobot PackBot goes haywire over in Iraq and inadvertently kills six soldiers or if a self-driven robotic car created by General Motors or Ford runs over a pedestrian.

Such events often cast a new—and less flattering—light on a promising new technology and can bring the industry (and its future hopes) into the cross-sights of the legal profession. As a historical example, recall that at the beginning of the 20th century asbestos was hailed as a wonder material for its amazing insulating and fire-retardancy properties. Today, we hold a decidedly different—and less positive—view of asbestos.

It is not my contention that the insurance industry will slow down all emerging technologies. In fact, in some instances, just the opposite might occur—the industry might facilitate the adoption of certain new technological advances.

For example, in spite of genomics incredible potential to violently disrupt the insurance industry’s business model of pooling risk, it is possible the insurance industry will facilitate the adoption of genetic testing by mandating that patients for certain diseases be genetically tested prior to the administration of any new drug in order to make sure that that drug will work effectively on the patient.

The same holds true for RFID technology. It could soon be determined that the cost of embedding sensors and RFID chips into bridges, cars, buildings and a host of other products greatly enhances safety and performance. If so, regulation could work in favor to these technologies by getting them mandated for certain applications.

If it seems as though I am speaking out of both sides of my both (i.e. that the insurance industry might either hamper or help RFID and other technologies) that is because I am. As F. Scott Fitzgerald once said, “The test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two diametrically opposed ideas in your head at the same time.”

It is a concept that all people interested in the future should adopt because professionals in the insurance industry are schooled in this very idea and they calculate not just the benefits of future technologies but also its potential risks and costs. And where the industry comes out in these calculations will, to a large degree, determine which technologies shape our future.

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The Future of Association Meetings

In my business as a futurist and a public speaker, I have addressed hundreds of business association meetings. They are great networking opportunities, but it is not uncommon at these events to see a great many people stick to the safety of their pre-existing social circles. There is nothing inherently wrong with this, but most people would probably agree that in so doing these people are missing out on a great opportunity to form new connections as well as gain insight from other people whom they haven’t—and might never—meet.

Well, there is a new technology brewing on the horizon which could radically alter the dynamics of future meetings and enhance the productivity of these meetings. The technology I am speaking of is known as ’smart badges” and while they have been around in a limited form for the past few years, the technology is now getting better and they are poised to have a big impact on how future meetings are conducted—especially association meetings.

For instance, if you look at the picture above it is easy to see who is talking to who. Armed with this information, it might be easier for people to make common connections. For example, if you don’t know Bob but you see that your friend Sarah does, it might be easier for you to introduce yourself to Bob. Similarly, the technology can be used to bring together people who share common interests, hobbies or who might have even read the same book. It is even feasible to draw in people who would otherwise prefer to stay on the fringe—and this could be important because these people might have something really valuable to add to the conversation.

MIT’s Media Lab and such spin-off companies as nTag are producing a variety of innovative new technologies that could revolution the field of sociometrics. When one couples this progress with advances being made in the fields of mobile communication, RFID technology and software programs and algorithms, it boggles the mind to think how much more enjoyable, informative and entertaining future business and trade association meetings might be.

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The Future of the Automobile

Last year, I gave a keynote presentation on “Future Trends” to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association. Since many of these trends are directly applicable to the automobile industry—which, as you known, is undergoing a bit of turmoil these days—I thought I would draw up a list of ten trends I see influencing the automobile industry over the next five to ten years.

Trend #1: Smart Materials

It has been said that a picture is worth a thousand words. I agree and so if you want to see the future of “smart materials,” I’d strongly encourage you to watch this short video about General Motor’s work in the field. (I know, I know ... GM is now in bankrupcy but that doesn’t minimize its work in this exciting field.)

Within the next few years a number of cars will possess body parts—such as air dams and handles—made out of shape memory alloys. Self-cleaning glass and scratch-resistant panels will also become the norm. Slightly longer term, self-healing rubber -- such as BASF is developing—will be incorporated into cars.

Trend #2: Nanotechnology

To a large degree it is advances in nanotechnology which are enabling many of the aforementioned products, but nanotechnology will also lead to the creation of new and more effective catalysts which will reduce the amount of platinum and palladium automobile manufacturers use. Nanoparticles will also be used to improve fuel efficiency. In fact, Oxonica is already testing its nanoparticles on buses in England (where they have demonstrated a 4.3% in fuel efficiency), and new nanocoatings such as Ecology Coatings is developing will reduce both the amount of material and energy OEMs use to coat existing auto parts.

Trend #3: Better Batteries

Again, thanks to advances in nanotechnology (this time in the form of new nanomaterials and silicon nanowires), a number of manufacturers are producing extraordinary leaps in battery technology. Companies such as EEStor, A123 Systems and Altair Nanotechnologies should all be closely monitored because they could soon be building batteries capable of powering a car for 300 to 400 miles. (As an added benefit, they might need only a few minutes to recharge.)

Trend #4: Web 2.0

The term “Web 2.0” is trendy to be sure but it is impacting the automobile industry today. Companies like BMW are already using wikis and exploiting the open-source movement in order to reach out to the “wisdom of crowds” and speed up product innovation. (For more information, visit BMW’s Virtual Innovation Center.)

Beyond that, however, new sites such as Dash Express and IntelliOne are using electronic information to improve the driving experience. This is not going to change. In fact, it will only become more pronounced in the near future as more and more information streams onto the Internet. 

Trend #5: Flexible Electronics

Soon information and directions will be embedded directly into windshields. The picture to the right says it all.

Trend #6: Robotics

I have written extensively on this topic. (For more information just click here, here or here.) But this past January, the CEO of GM, Rick Wagoner, said that “self-driving cars” are possible within a decade. If one tracks the near exponential advances in robotics, sensors, and GPS technology and then considers the success achieved at this past year’s DARPA “Urban Challenge,” this seems to be a reasonable timeframe.

More near-term, however, robotics will continue to take over some basic functions—such as parking in tight spaces. But instead of self-parking being a service that is offered only on luxury cars, it’ll soon become a standard feature on every car.

Trend #7: Biofuels and Synthetic Biology

Personally, I’m not a fan of ethanol. However, advances in the field of cellulosic ethanol and, slightly longer-term, synthetic biology; will fundamentally alter the energy equation. I still believe battery technology offers a more practical alternative to fossil fuel but, in combination with new advanced biofuels, the car of the future will be very eco-friendly.

Trend #8: Biology

That’s right biology. Many next-generation automotive designs will likely draw their inspiration straight from biology. Daimler has already studied the Boxfish to create a more aerodynamic car and I believe other engineers will continue to find even more inspiration from the natural world around us.

Trend #9: Neurotechnology

Scientists and researchers at Toyota are already studying drivers brain patterns to help keep them alert. For example, if an elderly driver is getting too distracted it will soon be possible for “smart computers” to sense this and begin shutting down superfluous features. The advantage is that driver’s reaction time will improve. (Long-term, robotics should completely take-over some driving activities. See Trend # 6)

Trend #10: Others

I know this is cheating, but since I wanted to keep the list to ten I am simply going to point out that computers, software, RFID, rapid prototype manufacturing and speech and voice recognition technology are all going to continue to improve and will impact how the car of the future is designed and operated.

For example, engineers will continue to have access to increasingly powerful supercomputers from which they will be able to create new designs. New advanced algorithms will then take these designs and further refine them into working parts, and many of the new parts will then be built to exacting tolerances due to advances in rapid prototype manufacturing. And, of course, the driver will be sure those parts are working as result of continued advances in RFID technology. 

All told, these trends suggest that not only will your next car not resemble your “father’s Oldsmobile,” it won’t even look or operate much like today’s advanced self-parking, GPS-laden, hybrid SUVs.

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Unlearn by Learning to Ask New Questions

We have all been there at some time—standing in line at the airport waiting to board a plane and thinking to ourselves that “there has to be a better way.” Well, apparently, there is now. According to this informative article a researcher at Fermilab has figured out the optimal way to board an airplane.

His findings are counter-intuitive to say the least. Contrary to what one might expect, boarding from the back of the plane first isn’t the optimal method. Rather, the optimal method is to board passangers 10 at a time in every other row. Apparently, this allows passengers to store their baggage overhead at a faster rate.

As I say in my book, Jump the Curve, accelerating advances in computer processing power and algorithms often result in findings that challenge conventional wisdom. The big question now is whether executives in the airline industry will have the courage to listen to an outsider (the researcher, Jason Steffen is a physicist) and whether the industry itself can “unlearn” its current behavior of loading passengers from the the back of the plane.

Interested in other posts on the topic of unlearning? Check out these articles:

Does the Pharmaceutical INdustry Need to Unlearn?
Is the Health Care Industry prepared to Unlearn?
Learning to Unlearn: Case Study #1
Examples of Unexponential Thinking

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Think About the Future, Today

Effective today, June 8, 2009, General Motors and Citigroup are no longer components of the Dow 30. In and of itself this news has no great relevance, but it does highlight how fast today’s economy continues to change. As I mentioned the other day, many people think that ”tomorrow will be pretty much like yesterday.” This simply isn’t true.

One strategy I have advocated for thinking about the future is to ”develop a future bias.” As a thought exercise and to help you “jump the curve,” I’d like to suggest a second exercise: review the members of the current Dow 30 and imagine which company will be the next to be removed from the list and explain why it might go. (For extra credit, I invite you to imagine which company might replace it.) The purpose of this exercise is to force you what of your comfort zone and come face-to-face with the reality that “the only constant is change.”

To help you get started, here are some possibilities. Advances in nanotechnology could cause many of the materials Alcoa makes to become either irrelevant or obsolete, and the company will be replaced by a nanomaterial company. Or perhaps Caterpillar will not remain competitive due to advances in robotics and it will be replaced by iRobot. A third alternative is that intense competition from Nokia will wreak havoc on both AT&T and Verizon and they will be replaced on the Dow 30 by Google, which may continue to make strides in the communication field with its new Android platform. A fourth possibility is that new advances in biotechnology will render many existing drugs obsolete and Pfizer will be replaced on the Dow 30 with a biotech company such as Genentech.

Really, there is no shortage of possibilities but one of the best ways to prepare for the future is to simply acknowledge that it is going to change. And, as Darwin said: “It is not the strongest of a species that survives, nor is it the fittest; it is those that can adapt the fastest.” Are you and your organization prepared to adapt? Quickly?

If not, you could go the way of General Motors.

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Into the Unknown: A Historical Lesson from Lewis & Clark

In 2004, I wrote the book Into the Unknown: Leadership Lessons from Lewis & Clark’s Daring Westward Expedition. One of my favorite stories—because it has so much relevance for today’s business leaders who are looking to jump the curve—occurred during the early part of June 1805.

On June 2, 1805, Lewis and Clark approached a fork in the Missouri River. During their consultations with the Indians the previous winter nothing had been mentioned of this second river. It was, however, critical that the Corps of Discovery follow the true Missouri River. If they didn’t, they were unlikely to reach and successfully pass over the Rocky Mountains before winter. This setback would have jeopardized the entire mission.

Lewis and Clark split their team up and sent one group up the north river and a second group down the south river. After three days, both teams returned and were still unsure as to which river was the true Missouri.

Lewis and Clark being the good leaders that they were then split up. Meriwether Lewis traveled north and William Clark went south. After a few days the two men returned and they still weren’t sure.

While they were away something very interesting occurred. All 30 members of the team determined that the north river was the true Missouri. They reached this decision the following way: For the past year, the Corps of Discovery had been traveling up the Missouri River and the water was “warm, slow, muddy and brown.” The water of the north river was also “warm, slow, muddy and brown,” therefore they reasoned it was the true Missouri. It is the equivalent of saying that “Tomorrow is going to be pretty much like yesterday.”

Lewis and Clark conferred among themselves and reached a far different conclusion. In the face of complete opposition, they announced the south river was the true Missouri. They reasoned as follows: At some point the snow from the mountains needed to melt and when it did it would create a river that was cold, fast and clear.” Those characteristics matched the south river and, as history demonstrated, the two captains made the correct decision.

My point is this: Many, if not most, people think that “tomorrow will be pretty much like yesterday.” From my perch as a professional futurist, I see the trends in biotechnology, nanotechnology, information technology, RFID, social networking and robotics (to name but a few) are accelerating and I know that tomorrow is going to be radically different then either yesterday or today—and we need more leaders with the courage to head out into the unknown.

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Exponential Executive Extraordinare: General George C. Marshall

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I See a Promising Future for Stem Cell Therapy

This two-minute video from the UK offers promising evidence that stem cell therapy may soon help people with a variety of eye-sight problems:

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An Unlearning Tutorial

Yesterday, I wrote this post entitled Why Businesses Must Unlearn on my other blog, www.unlearning101.com.

Shortly thereafter a thoughtful reader posed this question:

I like this idea of an organization doing some top-down “unlearning” of bad habits. But what new habits do they develop and put in place—how do you get a seasoned exec that’s devoted to a way of thinking to accept another view?”

It is an excellent question. In short, the questioner is asking: How does a person unlearn?

The first step—and I’ll admit this the most difficult—is to get the person to admit their ignorance. (Remember, “we don’t know what we don’t know.") One way of doing this is encourage the person to take the quiz prescribed in this post entitled Have Some Intellectual Humility. A second strategy is to invite them to start what Nassim Taleb calls an anti-library.

The second step is to get the person to at least acknowledge that there is a different way to do things. For a potential exercise, I would invite a person to Study Carneades and learn to debate both (or all) sides of an issue.

Three, as an adjunct to this exercise, ask the person to envision a future scenario that might require the person or the organization they are leading to change either their position or the direction of the organization. It has been proven that merely contemplating a different scenario (other than the one the person thinks most likely to occur) can help people and organizations adapt faster in the face of a fundamental change to underlying conditions. Two strategies I recommend in this arena are encouraging people to ask new questions and training them to see different points of view.

Four, tell stories. Personally, I am a big fan of telling stories and frequently, when addressing corporations, associations or government and non-profit organizations on unlearning and change management, I’ll pepper my keynote speeches and consulting sessions with the antidotes. I recently had this post which served as a warning to the scientific community and, last month, I put together this short four-minute video telling the story of executives at Bethlehem Steel. (If you really want to scare the person into unlearning try this post entitled Unlearn or Die. If, however, your selected audience is attune to sports try these sports-related unlearning stories: Unlearn Barriers; Why Not Granny Style; Unlearn Your Putting Game; and Practice Your Unlearning Game.

The latter four strategies work well for most people, but if the person can’t submit his or her ego to the unlearning concept; I would suggest this post entitled Beware of Growing Icebergs. It outlines why everyone should be open to unlearning.

I hope this post helps and for organizations that are interested in unlearning I now offer full and half-days seminars on the topic. Interested parties can contact me at jack@nanoveritas.com or 612-267-1212.)

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Did You Know … You Have to Jump the Curve

This 5-minute video entitled “Did You Know” has been around in various forms for a few years, but it still serves as an excellent reminders to why organizations must learn to “jump the curve:”

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