Jump The Curve Archives: 08/2009

Calling All Contractors: The Future of Construction is on Your Phone

In the recent past, I have written about the future of the construction industry and the future of the cellphone. Recently, a new tool—the Punch List App—has been brought to my attention which addresses the two areas and I believe it has the potential to save contractors, sub-contractors and, ultimately, customers a great deal of both money and time.

I strongly encourage you to read this article, entitled Bringing Your Punch List Into the 21st Century, but a few of the highlights of the technology that jumped out at me included: manipulating 3-D models of a specific room with your fingers; geo-tagging photos of certain problem issues; and attaching audio notes to those photos. The software also has the ability to assign tasks to the nearest employee.

In general, the app should help contractors streamline communications and better organize information—and for that reason alone it is a technology that should be considered now by every construction company, contractor and sub-contractor.

Related Posts

The Building and Construction Industry’s New Reality
The Future of Construction is Three Dimensional
Printing the House of the Future
Concrete’s Solid Future

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Beware of Future Statistics

This past Friday Bjorn Lomborg had a thoughtful editorial entitled Technology Can Fight Global Warming. As a professional technologist and futurist, I couldn’t agree more and I have written about this idea frequently. Nevertheless, I find Lomborg’s use of statistics highly unprofessional. To wit, as the basis for his argument, he claims that a high CO2 tax “will reduce world GDP a staggering 12.9% in 2100--the equivalent of $40 trillion a year.”

It is amazing to me that the editors of the Wall Street Journal allow such drivel to be published. No one—and I mean no one—can predict what the future will be like in 91 years. (To understand why see my recent article The Future is Unpredictable). It is even more ridiculous that Lomborg pinpoints the figure at 12.9%. I mean, really, if you are going to guess what impact a future tax is going to have on the economy why not have a little intellectual humility and give yourself some leeway by suggesting the economy will drop by a more rounded figure such as 13%.

There is a famous quote by Andrew Lang that bears repeating here: ”An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts—for support rather than illumination.”

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A Future of Black Swans

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The Future is Getting Cheaper

Last year I had post entitled The Future is Cheap in which I explained how technological advances are converging to drive down the price of a number of products and services. Today, yet another example has been brought to my attention. The price of In-Vitro Fertilization (IVF) is currently about $12,000 in the U.S. In Africa, however, a team of researchers now hopes to do it for $300.

Regardless of what one thinks about the wisdom or ethics of providing IVF to thousands of women in Africa, my point is that it won’t be long before the price in the U.S. and other places begins to drop rapidly.

If you want to jump the curve, one effective strategy is to seriously contemplate how your product or service might similarly be “disrupted” and provided for only “pennies” tomorrow.

Related Posts

The Future is Cheap
Cheaper and Better

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The Future of Robotic Surgery is Speeding Up

As readers know, I have been bullish on robotics practical applications in health care for some time (as this old post demonstrates.) Nevertheless, this 3-minute video shows how surgical robots are about to become a whole lot better—very soon. Enjoy!

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A Tale of Two Robots
Robots: The Ultimate Killer App?
Convergence: Brain-Control and Robotics
The Future of War: Ethical Robots?Robots: A Major Game Changer
Your Robotic Future?
Robots: A Major Game Changer?Our Robotic Future
The Future of Hospitals (Robotics)
The Robot Will See You Now
Jump the Curve Strategy #11: Park n’ Save with Robots

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140 Health Care Uses for Twitter

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Social Networking: The Future of Health Care

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The Future of Social Media is Now

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Social Networking: The Future of Health Care

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A Tale of Two Robots

Robots have always been a fun source of speculation about the future, and soon the speculation will get more interesting. This is because a number of innovative researchers are experimenting with different biological models for the creation of next-generation robots. For example, this article discusses how researchers are already mimicking the bones and muscles of humans to create more life-like robots, while this article reveals how other researchers have created a tiny swimming robot small enough to inspect the clogged drain pipe in your bathroom.

To better understand robots amazing potential, I invite you to watch the two very short videos posted below:

Related Posts

Robots: The Ultimate Killer App?
Convergence: Brain-Control and Robotics
The Future of War: Ethical Robots?Robots: A Major Game Changer
Your Robotic Future?
Robots: A Major Game Changer?Our Robotic Future
The Future of Hospitals (Robotics)
The Robot Will See You Now
Jump the Curve Strategy #11: Park n’ Save with Robots

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The Future of College Education?

CNN is reporting about a Monroe College graduate who is suing her Alma Mater for $72,000 because she has been unable to land job. In many ways, I find the article disturbing because not only does the student appear unwilling to accept any responsibility for her own plight, but also because I don’t believe people should use our courts to address every ill (real or perceived) that afflicts society.

Nevertheless, as a futurist, I find the report fascinating because I believe a number of students are going to begin questioning the wisdom of spending $50,000; $75,000 and upwards of $200,000 for a college education that offers—in many cases—marginal value.

I have written about the future of college before (here and here) and I remain convinced that in the future it will matter far less where students receive their degrees. What will matter is a student’s ability to demonstrate knowledge. The reality is that the world is awash in free knowledge and the future belongs to those who can assimilate it and apply it in meaningful ways—regardless of whether they received it for free or, as in the case of the suing student, $72,000.

Now, I am not saying that college and university will go away. I am merely implying that savvy and self-motivated students (and their parents) will no longer be willing to pay exorbitant tuition fees. Colleges and universities, if they wish to stay relevant in the future, must address the issue of rising tuition costs.

Related Posts

The Future of College
Unlearning University and College

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The Future of the Utility Industry

Over the past year, I have addressed a great many organizations involved in the utility industry. Part of my message has focused on how technology is transforming many aspects of their business. Another part of my message focuses on how advances in solar, wind, clean coal, fuel cell technology, geothermal, marine power and demand-management technologies—which I covered in my latest book, Green Investing -- will change their business.

The biggest part of my message, however, centers on how industry leaders need to “jump the curve” and begin thinking much differently about the future.

To this end, there is a wonderful article in this month’s Fast Company entitled ”Beyond the Grid.” From my perspective, the operative quote is this one, ”Distributed energy is happening.”

Let me repeated that: ”Distributed energy is happening.” It is a message everyone involved in the utility business should take to heart—immediately. Due to politics, the regulatory environment, as well as the inertia of human behavior, distributed energy and the micro-grid won’t arrive tomorrow but innovative utilities need to begin planning now—not in 5 or 10 years—for this new future.

Many utilities will argue that due to economies of scale that they can continue to produce and transmit electricity better and cheaper. And this is true—today.

As long-time readers know, I am a huge fan of history and years ago executives in the railroad industry laughed off competition from the airline industry because their consultants argued that rail would always be cheaper than flight. These consultants failed to recognize that customers would value time and convenience more than price. In much the same way, the microgrid will yield benefits beyond price.

In much the same way, executives at Ma Bell also laughed off the idea that their exulted status could be challenged. Today, as we know, things are much different in the telecommunications arena. Could the same happen in the utility industry? Sure. Wind and solar power are not price-competitive with coal and nuclear power today, but they are improving quickly and grid-parity is on the horizon.

If one studies the trends and the technologies affecting the utility industry as I do, it is easy to imagine a much different future for the utility industry than the one that exists today.

The prudent utility companies should be planning today for how they intend to first survive and, then, how they might even thrive in this new environment.

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TED “Jumps the Curve” Goes Exponential

I am a huge fan of TED and it’s educational videos. I have now learned that TED is allowing independent groups to sponsor TEDx events in a series of different locations, including my hometown of Minneapolis. It is a wonderful example of “jumping the curve” because rather than trying to tightly control its image and content, TED is reaching out to thousands—perhaps hundreds of thousands—of creative people.

Below is a short video about the program. As it states at the beginning, the TED programs were once viewed by 1000 people a year. Today, 300,000 people download a TED video everyday. Soon, that number will take another exponential leap forward:

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The Future is Only Skin-Deep

This past weekend my daughter (age 10) went with her mother to visit the Titantic Exhibit at the Science Museum in St. Paul, Minnesota. When she returned she noted that they had “white powder” on the ship. She explained that the “rich people” used it to mask their skin because they viewed being tan as the “mark” of a common laborer. Today, “rich” people (as well as others) go to great lengths to tan their skin and, in many quarters, being tan is perceived as a mark of affluence.

It is just another reminder that the future is incredibly hard to predict because it is not simply technology which changes (e.g. tanning booths, tanning creams, etc) it is also society’s social and cultural mores.

For example, look at this picture of the future from the 1950’s. The artist depicts women as wearing dresses and performing household chores. My point is that he completely missed the “cultural revolution” and the idea that many women would be working.

If you want to study the future I suggest you reflect long and hard on how different advances might yield unexpected changes in people’s behaviors.

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A Future of Black Swans … or Unlearning the Future

”Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu

This famous quote was uttered over 2500 years ago and may strike some people as odd that, as a professional futurist, I have chosen to highlight it.

My rationale is two-fold. First, as I have said many times before, the chief responsibility of a futurist is not to “predict” the future but rather outline a range of future possibilities. Second, and more important, I have highlighted the quote because it is true.

If you have not already read Nassim Taleb’s outstanding book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, do so as soon as possible. On Page 177 of the book, Taleb has an illustration of the scattering effect which artfully explains why predicting the future—especially for longer time frames—is virtually impossible.

Because I can’t reprint the figure here, I am left with Taleb’s analogy for understanding the scattering effect: the prediction of a billiard ball.

Assuming one has knowledge of the location of every ball and the speed and accuracy of the cue ball, it is relatively easy to predict the expected movement of the ball after the first shot. A person might even expect that second, third and fourth degree movements can be estimated with great accuracy due to the growing computational power of computers. The problem, however, grows increasingly complex with each subsequent movement. This is because after the ninth movement the gravitational pull of a person standing at the next pool table exerts enough of an effect to alter the trajectory of the ball. And after 56 movements even the smallest particle on the outer edge of the universe will effect the trajectory!

The bottom line is this: There are simply too many factors to consider when contemplating the future 20, 30, 50 or 100 years out. (Even a small effect today can have outsized implications 50 years hence). The situation, of course, becomes even more complicated because of Taleb’s main thesis which is that “Black Swans”—described as “high impact, low probability” events—tend to shape the future more than “expected” trends.

Therefore, whether a future “Black Swan” takes the shape of a pandemic, an asteroid, an E-bomb, a rogue terrorist attack, a North Korean or Iranian nuclear attack, an unexpected breakthrough in quantum computing or synthetic biology, or, more likely, some “unknown unknown;” the future will be difficult too predict because we don’t have—and won’t ever have—enough knowledge about the future.

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The Future Requires Unlearning
Unlearning the Future

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To Succeed in the Future: Unlearn Information

Unlearning information. It’s sounds paradoxical, right? After all, who in their right mind, would want less information? Well, you might if you want to succeed in the future.

Consider this quote which I came across in Jonah Lerner’s informative new book, “How We Decide”:

“A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.”

It is counter-intuitive but often having access to too much information can lead people to make worse decisions.

For example, in a classic study, one group of MIT graduate students were given access to a steady stream of financial information—CNBC, Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, etc—while a second group was only given information on the changing price of a stock.

Given this disparity which group do you think did a better job in selecting stocks? Most people would assume the first group. After all isn’t this why people read the Wall Street Journal and watch the analysts on CNBC? Well, you would be wrong. The second group—the group with less information—performed better.

Various versions of this experiment have been conducted with other groups, including college counselors who were asked to predict the future success of different students. One group was provided high school transcripts, SAT/ACT test scores, application essays and were even allowed personal interviews with the students. The second group was only given access to transcripts and SAT scores.

Again, the group with less information performed better. One big reason why this occurs is because when people are inundated with too much information they tend to think of all information as being equal. In the process, they lose track of what information is really important. More problematic is the finding that with more information people increasingly confident of their bad decisions!

The bottom line is not just as Jonah Lerner says that “Knowledge has diminishing returns,” but rather as Nassim Taleb wrote in the Black Swan that “Additional knowledge of the minutiae of daily business can be useless, even toxic.”

So there you go. De-toxify your system. Unlearn. Put down the newspapers and blogs; stop watching TV news programs; and quit following everyone on Twitter—you’ll make better decisions because of it.

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