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Global futurist and author Jack Uldrich offers essential strategic information on nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, RFID and many other future technologies to help you prosper as exponential trends converge at this unique moment in history.
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Chapter 10: Doing the Impossible
The Future Means Never Saying Never
The Wall Street Journal has a chilling article on bioterrorism in today’s paper. At the end of the article, one analyst tries to make everyone feel better by saying, “The idea that four guys in a cave are going to create bioterrorism from scratch--that will be never, ever, ever.”
And, of course, he is right ... until he is wrong! History tells us that things which sound impossible today have a way of becoming possible tomorrow.
Don’t believe me? Who would have believed 10 years ago that four guys in a cave could mastermind a plot to send airplanes into the World Trade Center and, in the process, wreak havoc on the global economy.
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Futurist Jack Uldrich Keynotes Conference
In the past year, I have given dozens of keynote presentations to a variety of clients. Below is a short 10-minute speaking demo. If you are looking for an engaging, entertaining and informative keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact either Mimi Hair or Ryan Foltz at Leading Authorities.
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The Practical Futurist Vs The Impractical Futurist
A fellow professional futurist bills himself as the practical futurist. The label has always rubbed me the wrong way and it’s not because I don’t also believe that some futurists can get a little ahead of themselves. Rather, it is because I think the phrase “practical futurist” is an oxymoron. By labeling himself as “practical” what he is really doing is confining himself to only “practical” ideas and if history teaches us anything it is that the future is rarely practical.
In 2006, would a practical futurist have predicted that the social networking site, Facebook, would be larger than all but three countries in this world or that Apple would have the most successful cellphone in the world and that it would possess over 150,000 different “apps” and these apps could do everything from tell you what song you are listening to ... to mimicking the sound of a fart?
In 2001, is it likely that a practical futurist would have predicted that people working for free and with no overhead would ultimately produce an encyclopedia larger and more accurate than anything Encyclopedia Britannica could produce? Or that this “people’s encyclopedia” would thump Microsoft’s plans to hire a hundred of the brightest PhD’s to construct Encarta—an online encyclopedia? Of course not, but today everyone uses Wikipedia and it is available in no fewer than 250 different languages.
In 1991, when a cellphone was the size of a large brick and cost $5000, would a practical futurist have predicted that in less than two decades 2 billion cellphones would be in existence on the planet and that fishermen in Africa would be using the devices to do everything from checking the weather to exchanging cash?
In 1981, when video games were only as sophisticated as Pac-Man, would a practical futurist have predicted that someday video games would be a larger industry than all of Hollywood? Would a practical futurist have predicted that bottled water would be a $17 billion a year industry?
In 1971, would a practical futurist have predicted that Moore’s Law would continue unabated for another 40 years and ultimately make computer chips so inexpensive that McDonald’s would give these computers away (in the form of cheap disposable toys) with a $3 Kid’s Meal?
In 1961, when computer memory devices were the size of a large desk, stored 5 megabytes, and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, would a practical futurist have predicted that some day tiny memory devices with a million times more storage capacity would be given away for free as trinkets at a national conference for gays, lesbians, trans-gender and trans-sexuals? (Perhaps they may have predicted the former but I bet the latter was nowhere near their “practical” radar screen).
In 1951, would a practical futurist have had the foresight to see that in the future pet food would be a $40 billion-a-year industry and that people would hire pet psychologists or that an airline would be created to cater specifically to those pet owners who wished to fly their pets in first class?
In 1941, would a practical futurist have predicted that the United States two greatest threats—Germany and Japan—would rank among our staunchest allies in less than two decades? Or, on the heels of the Great Depression, that some day obesity—and not hunger—would be among our greatest health threats.
In 1931, when no less of an authority than Albert Einstein was saying that there “wasn’t the slighest indication that nuclear power can be harvested,” would a practical futurist have predicted that an atomic bomb would be created less than 15 years later?
In 1921, when planes still hadn’t crossed the Atlantic Ocean, would a practical futurist have predicted that Atlanta would someday have the world’s largest airport and that 90 million people from all across the globe would fly through the once sleepy southern city?
And, in 1911, would a practical futurist have had the audacity to predict that just a decade later that an innovative entrepreneur would have created a way to transmits the human voice across the Atlantic Ocean? Not likely since in 1916 Lee De Forest was prosecuted by government officials for making such a preposterous claim. (Luckily he wasn’t found guilty and founded RCA in 1919.)
My point is simple. The future is accelerating and advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, information technology, robotics, genomics, stem cell research, regenerative medicine, brain-scanning technology, data storage, Internet bandwidth, photonics, energy technology, algorithms, voice recognition technology, social networks and synthetic biology—among others—are going to rock our world in ways that are difficult to imagine today.
If you want to be told that tomorrow is practical—because it might make you feel comfortable or because you don’t have the guts to hear things that may sound impractical—then, by all means, hire a practical futurist. I offer only this caveat: What I might say as an “impractical futurist” may not come to fruition but I can guarantee you this: If the future sounds “practical” it definitely isn’t going to come true.
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Look Inside for the Future of Health Care
“If the current rate of miniaturization continues, by 2020 approximately 2.500 transistors—equivalent to microprocessors of the first generation of personal computers—could fit into the area of a typical living cell.” This quote comes this interesting article in Nanowerk.
For other articles relating to the future of health care, check out the following:
Social Networking: The Future of Health Care
The Future of Health Care is as Near as Your iPhone
Healthcare is the “Verge” of Something Big
Here Comes Intelligent Medicine
The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating
Personalized Medicine’s Accelerating Future
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift
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America’s Future: In One Word
This past weekend I read a fascinating interview with Peter Thiel—the co-founder of PayPal and the first investor in FaceBook—in Wired. The article was entitled The Utopian Pessimist.
What I liked about the article is that Thiel questions the assumption—trumpeted by many investors and fund managers—that the stock market will continue to post long-term increases in the range of 6-8%.
It is easy to fall into this trap because for the past 100 years an investment in equities has, in fact, yielded such a healthy return. There is no reason why, however, that this must continue to be the case moving forward into the future. As Nassim Taleb explains in his excellent book, The Black Swan, the future has a way of surprising everyone—and those surprises can be both pleasant and unpleasant.
For instance, what if the past 100 years were just a pleasant surprise? That is what if the 20th century was an anomaly and we were just lucky to have gone from horses and buggies to automobiles, rockets, computers and the Internet in a very short time? As Thiel says, “It’s not automatic that that progress continues.”
It isnt’! But if America wishes to maintain and, possibly even grow, its global position what must it do?
In a word: Innovate.
Earlier today, I explained how the rate of paradigm shifts is accelerating. This implies that an unprecedented amount of economic disruption is headed our way; but rather than be a source of only worry and consternation; farsighted entrepreneurs; investors and, hopefully, policy-makers will also recognize that it also represents a wonderful opportunity.
Advances in information technology promise to revolutionize media, publishing and education. Progress in biotechnology, stem cell research and regenerative medicine portend a glorious new age in preventative health care; and advances in nanotechnology and synthetic biology point the way toward a new, cleaner and, ultimately, more sustainable energy paradigm. (For an idea of the decade ahead, I invite you to review my predictions for 2010-2019).
Many of these developments, in turn, will either converge or spin-off in new and unexpected ways. To capture this promise, though, it is essential to develop an educational; entrepreneurial and political culture which encourages and rewards risk and innovation.
The future of tomorrow will move so fast that innovation is less a characteristic to aspire to and, instead, a trait that must be constantly used; honed and improved upon. In my book, Jump the Curve, I lay out 50 strategies for doing this but I’d like to share three here: 1) Think Like a Child; 2) Develop a Future Bias; and 3) Learn to Unlearn.
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A Futurist’s Future
Earlier this month, as a professional futurist, I put together a list of my top 20 technology-based predictions for 2010. Earlier this week, futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted how technology will change humanity by 2020. (It’s a great read and you can access it here.)
Among the highlights, by 2020:
1. Memory devices will be integrated into our clothing;
2. People will have ways to touch each other virtually;
3. Solar energy will continue to grow exponentially; and
4. Advances in genomics will address the problem of obestity.
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How Longer Life Expectancies Might Change the Future
The Wharton School of Business recently published an formative and insightful article entitled So You Want to Live to 100? More of Us Will, and Here is What Life Might Look Like.
Among the key findings:
1. Governments will need to impose radical changes in public policy.
2. Older workers will increasingly be managed by younger supervisors.
3. There will be a growth in jobs that require only 15, 20 or 25 hours of work a week.
4. The 21st century may be a “century of redistribution of work” in which individuals will will combine work, education, leisure and child-rearing (and parent care) in varying amounts at different times in their lives.
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The Future is in Your Head—Really.
The future is in your head—really. According to this informative article, researchers at Intel are working on a “brain sensing” chip that could allow an individual to control a TV, computer or robot simply by thinking about it.
Now, the article does say that the technology is 10-15 years away, but I’d encourage people to think long and hard about the prospects for this technology. To advocates, I would caution that legal, regulatory and political considerations may slow the adoption of the technology. But opponents of the technology should not, however, take comfort.
From my perspective, brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is inevitable and I think it could arrive—albeit in a limited form—in sooner than 10 years. As the world grows older, many seniors will be faced with the prospect of losing their independence and moving into assisted-living facilities. If BCI allows them the ability to maintain their independence, I believe that seniors—and not young, techno-enthusiasts—will lead the “brain chip” revolution.
As an analogy, recall that 50 years ago pace-makers seemed unnatural and were dismissed by most people. Today, two million people have the medical devices installed every year. And 30 years ago, in-vitro fertilization—or “test tube” babies—was similarly dismissed as “fringe” science. Today, millions of people have been born using the technology.
My point: What sounds odd today often has a way of becoming quite natural tomorrow. To this end, this is why I believe the future really is in your head.
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Around the World in 80 Minutes
A new company is claiming that by 2012 it will be taking guests up to outer space for a three-day excursion. The cost is a mere $4.4 million. From my perspective, the timeline seems overly aggressive but space tourism is definitely on the horizon—and, like so many other things, the price will drop.
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Black Swans & The Future of Energy
The Wall Street Journal, yesterday, had a nice article on ”Five technologies that could change everything” for the energy industry. I’m in general agreement that the five technologies mentioned—advanced car batteries, carbon capture and storage, space-based solar power, utility storage and next-generation biofuels—all hold great promise.
Nevertheless, as a professional futurist who is also an avid student of history, it pays to be humble when handicapping the future. Specifically, I remind investors and interested parties in the energy sector to beware of “Black Swans”—low probability events (or technology breakthroughs) which, if they occur, could have a huge impact. In the energy sector, I would include such things as synthetic biology; cold fusion; solar paint; and “sustainable" carbon technologies.
If you have possibilities that should be included in my “black swan” list, I’d love to hear from you.
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The Future is on the Back Pages of the Newspaper
In my 2008 book, Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies to Help Your Company Stay Ahead of Emerging Technologies, one strategy I encourage people to employ from time to time is that of reading the newspaper backwards. Why? Because it can help you more clearly see where the future is headed.
Yesterday, for example, as I was returning from Dallas where I delivered a keynote presentation on the future of travel and tourism to the Texas Travel Industry Association, I began by reading the marketing section of the Wall Street Journal from back-to-front. Here’s what I noticed. On Page 8, it was revealed that Sarah Palin’s new book won’t be released in an E-book until after Christmas. This is noteworthy for the simple fact that it wouldn’t have been noteworthy as recently as last year. In other words, E-books have now become so popular that when a new book isn’t released in electronic format at the same time as the print version it qualifies as news. It’s clear from this news that e-book sales will only continue to rise at the expense of traditional hardcover books and that the publishing industry must adapt.
On Page B7 there was a similar story, only this one related to the advertising industry: Web Ad Sales in Britain Overtake TV. On Page B6, it was announced that Lemmis Lighting is releasing a 20-year lightbulb. (Imagine this: In the future your kid or grandchild might not be able to change a lightbulb because it is something they only have to do once every two decades!)
And then on Page B5 there were two articles of note. First, there was a small article announcing that Princeton University was testing Amazon Kindle’s DX e-book as part of a national pilot program; and, second, there was a larger article explaining that the airline industry is finally getting serious about employing RFID tags to track baggage. Both news stories reinforce the growing prevalence of e-books and RFID technology.
My friends, the future is here. To learn more about it all you need to do is read the back of the newspaper!
P.S. If you keep reading the 9/30/09 edition of the WSJ, on Page 3, there is article explaining why biobutanol might soon replace ethanol as America’s biofuel of choice.
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A Historic Anniversary for Nanotechnology—and the Future
Earlier this month we celebrated the 40th anniversary of the first computer-to-computer communication—or what was the harbinger of the Internet. Today, we celebrate the 20th anniversary of a nanotechnology first. It was on this day in 1989 that Don Eigler first manipulated an atom.
It might not seem like much but just as that first computer-to-computer communication lead to today’s Internet, Eigler’s accomplishment will lead to equally astounding scientific and technical achievements.
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The Future Will Bug You
In the category that science fiction is now science reality, I invite you to read this startling article about how researchers have now successfully created a remote-controlled flying cyborg beetle.
The below video may not look like much but I believe otherwise. On the positive side, there obvious applications for battling terrorism. On the negative side, I think we should all be concerned about potential violations to our privacy:
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Prolonging the Future
”Aging is, unequivocally, the major cause of death in the industrialized world and a perfectly legitimate target of medical intervention.”
The above quote by Aubrey de Grey was taken from this interesting article (Two Mammals’ Longevity Boosted) in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal.
I written about both de Grey (here) and the topic of aging (below), and I am convinced that de Grey’s theories will continue to pick up supporters in the scientific and medical communities. The result being that many of us can expect to live a lot longer than we are currently planning. The implications of shifting the paradigm of aging from something that is inevitable (our current paradigm) to something that is treatable will be huge.
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A New Stage of Evolution
Last year, I wrote a piece arguing that evolution is exponential. Stephen Hawking’s has reached a similar conclusion and now believes society has arrived at the era of self designed evolution. If one tracks the advances in the field of genomics alone—as I do -- it is difficult to avoid reaching a similar conclusion.
The great question before us now is whether we humans, as a species, will handle this transition wisely. I’d welcome any feedback people have on either the wisdom of “self designed evolution;” the possibility of unintended consequences; or even your ideas on how a more optimistic, transhumanist future might unfold.
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The Future of Energy—A Sustainable Carbon Economy?
I have written about carbon capture technology before (here) but one of my favorite websites, Crave, is now reporting on the same technology. What I like about the article is that it refers to the technology as a “synthetic tree.” From this perspective, I believe it is easier for the average person to envision how truly beneficial the technology might be if it can deliver on its promise to capture—or pull out like a sponge if you will—a 1000 tons of CO2 every year. (A real tree needs 100 years to accomplish this same task.)
More broadly still, if innovative researchers at such places as Sandia’s National Lab and Georgia Tech can learn how to “reenergize” this carbon it is possible that carbon could become a “sustainable” fuel. In other words, our automobiles and coal plants will still spew out CO2 but we may soon be able to recycle and reuse it.
I know environmentalists and “Greens” might not warm to such an idea but the future often has a funny way of playing out. The vision of a “sustainable” carbon economy may not hold as much appeal as, say, a zero-carbon hydrogen economy but it has one large and distinct advantage—it won’t require people or large industries to change. And if there is one thing everyone needs to keep in mind when contemplating the future it is this: People don’t like to change unless it is absolutely necessary.
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To Understand the Future It Helps to Have a Brain
Last year, I had a posted suggesting that you didn’t need to be a brain surgeon to see where the future was headed in terms of robotic surgery. I still stand by this statement, but as this news story explains it will still be essential to have a brain.
I have written before about the amazing amount of progress being made in the field of brain-machine interface technology -- or the ability to control external devices by thought alone. But, as the article explains, the technology is probably far more advanced than most people generally recognize. And while it is cool that monkeys can now mentally guide robotics to feed themselves, and ALS victims can continue to communicate with loved ones by using their mind to control a keyboard, I think it is vital that everyone in business today ”jump the curve” and try to understand where this technology might be headed.
(If you wish you can go “bananas” and watch this 55-second video clip of the monkey using its brain to control the robotic arm to feed itself bananas by clicking here.)
For example, what are the implications if people can control simple robotic devices by thought alone? One possibility is that elderly people who wish to remain in their homes (instead of moving into assisted-living facilities) might be able to maintain their independence longer by merely “thinking” a robot to clear away their dishes or clean the bathroon.
I have also written about the exponential advances in self-driving robotic cars. While, at first, people will undoubtedly be reluctant to turn over the control of the steering wheel to a robot, is it possible that their unease might be alleviated if they knew they could take over control of the car simply by “thinking” about it?
To many people such ideas sound impossible, but if you understand where brain-machine interface and robotic technologies are in terms of their progress today and further understand the exponential advances these technologies are experiencing, I think you’ll see that your brain will be able to do a lot more than it is currently doing. At a minimum, I’d encourage you to just “think” about it.
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The Future of Your Organs is in Mint-Condition
I was born in 1964. I tell you this because the other day I happened to see a 1964 Mustang in mint-condition. Perhaps because I had just gone out for a long-run and was feeling my age afterwards, I found myself wishing my body could be maintained at the same level as the ‘64 Mustang.
Well, I invite you to read this fascinating article on how much progress is being made in the field of tissue engineering because such a vision of “body” maintenance may soon be possible. Today, researchers are making new bladders and within a few years it is expected that it will be possible to grow new kidneys, livers, arteries and eventually even new hearts.
I don’t dismiss the societal, moral or ethical considerations of this technology but, as a professional futurist, I envision a day in the near future when many of us will be able to exchange body parts as easily as auto mechanics are today able to replace engine parts on a ‘64 Mustang—and keep that baby humming well down the road and into the future.
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Unlearning Science
In relative terms, the field of plate tectonics is still fairly new—becoming widely accepted only in the mid-1960’s. The idea that massive continents could have drifted apart over millions of years was, however, first expounded on by an amateur American geologist, Frank Bursley, in 1908. Bursley was struck by how the shape between the west coast of Africa and the east coast of South America looked as though they could fit together like two pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, and suggested the movement of the continents might also explain the formation of mountain ranges. Bursley provided little evidence and his idea was soon—and easily—dismissed by the scientific establishment who had little time for the “strange” theories from amateurs.
A few years later Bursley’s idea was picked up by a German meteorologist, Alfred Wegener, who was disturbed by the many animal and fossil anomalies which didn’t fit conveniently into the day’s existing theory of how the earth was formed. Again, it was dismissed. This time because the idea came from an outsider—a meteorologist.
And what precisely was the leading theory used by geologists to explain how the exact same fossils of animals and plants could have existed on the opposite sides of different oceans? The answer was “land bridges”—mysterious strips of land, for which no evidence existed, but miraculously allowed animals to peacefully and successfully meander thousands of miles across vast expanses of the world’s oceans.
For example, when an ancient horse named Hipparion was found to have lived in both Florida and France, geologists drew a land bridge across the Atlantic Ocean to explain away this disturbing discrepancy. Soon, a variety of other land bridges begun to spring up and populate the world of geological science in order to explain everything from how tapirs existed in both Southeast Asia and South America at the same time to how snails could turn up in both Scandinavia and New England.
Surprisingly, and in the face of a complete and utter lack of evidence, land bridges remained the geological orthodoxy for the next 50 years. In 1944, a British geologist, Arthur Holmes, wrote a book entitled Principles of Physical Geology elaborating on Wegner’s theory but it was dismissed by one reviewer who even had the temerity to warn that Holmes presented his arguments so coherently that they might actually be believed by students! In 1955, no less a figure than the esteemed Albert Einstein wrote a ringing endorsement for a book which all but ridiculed the ideas of Wegener and Holmes.
And in 1964, in the face of mounting evidence, a Canadian geologist by the name of Lawrence Morley wrote a paper explaining how magnetic studies of the floor of the Atlantic Ocean were spreading in the exact motion prescribed by the theory of “continental drift.” Morley’s paper was abruptly and rudely dismissed by the editor of the prestigious Journal of Geophysical Research with this now infamous note: “Such speculations make interesting talk at cocktail, but it is not the sort of thing that ought to be published under serious scientific aegis.”
Later that year at a conference of the Royal Society the tide finally began to turn but it wasn’t until 1968 when the same publication, which had rejected Morley’s paper only four years earlier, published the article which gave the science of plate tectonics its name.
The story serves as a wonderful reminder to those scientists who are quick to dismiss ideas from amateurs, outsiders, and unconventional thinkers. To this end, I invite you to watch this 60 Minutes segment on “Cold Fusion” and pay special attention to the outright dismissal of the idea by some of today’s leading experts. Could they be wrong? I don’t purport to know the answer but history suggests that these scientific experts should at least entertain the notion that they might be wrong.
The same is true of the theories of Aubrey de Grey, an outsider from the field of computer science, who is strongly challenging today’s conventional wisdom on the “science of aging.”
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The Future of Search … Isn’t Search
With something which has been touted and even hyped for more than 50 years—as has the field of artificial intelligence—it is easy to dismiss predictions from proponents that “this time it is different.” But one of the funny things about the future is that sometimes (not always, however) “this time” really is different. To this end, I invite you to read this informative article in today’s Mercury News entitled ”Siri Lifts veil on intelligent assistant.”
I especially liked this quote: “The future of search isn’t search. It’s a conversation with someone you trust.” That “someone” will, most likely, be an artificial intelligent agent. The reason is three-fold. First, people are becoming increasingly comfortable relying on their iPhones and smartphones for a wealth of information. Thus, the idea of relying on artificial intelligence is rapidly gain ground in our culture. Second, Moore’s Law isn’t going to slow down for at least another decade which means that computers will become, at a minimum, a 1000-fold more powerful in the coming decade. Third, and most important, due to sophisticated algorithms, artificially intelligent bots can learn from your preferences as well as the preferences of others. In other words, machines can learn and get smarter at a much faster rate than us mere mortals.
Welcome to the Exponential Economy my friends. Your artificially intelligent guide stands ready to assist you on your journey.
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The Future Will Blow You Away
Dear Readers:
I am off to enjoy this Memorial Day weekend. Here is a short video that I produced last year. If you haven’t seen it, it is worth five minutes of your time.
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The Singularity of Ray Kurzweil
To better understand long-term technology trends there are few people better than Ray Kurzweil. If you are not familiar with Kurzweil’s ideas this six video will stretch your mind. And, as they say, “once a mind has been stretched, it never goes back to its original shape.” Enjoy!
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The Future of War: Ethical Robots?
Having been brought up on a steady diet of sci-fi movies in which robots betray their human masters, it is easy to envision a future in which rogue robots engage in unethical activity.
The opposite—a scenario in which robots are more ethical than human counterparts—is more difficult to imagine. From my perspective as a professional futurist this, however, is the more likely scenario
MSNC.com has published an excellent article entitled ”Robot warriors will get ethics guide.” Here is the operative quote: “Ultimately these (robotic) systems could have more information to make wiser decisions than a human could make.” In essence, because robots don’t get scared or become over-emotional they are unlikely to over-react and act in ways which society would consider unethical.
This is not to say that such ethical hardware and software packages have yet been fully developed but smart human computer and software programmers are working on such systems today and these system are only going to get better. The question we need to ask ourselves is this: In the heat of battle, would you rather have a scared, stressed-out 19 year-old behind the trigger or an unemotional robot which could quickly assess the range of options available to it and arrive at the most ethical conclusion?
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Will Wolfram Alpha Jump the Curve?
At 7pm (Central Standard Time) tonight, a new type of search engine—called Wolfram Alpha -- will go live. There is still much that can go wrong with the program but, personally, I am very excited about the project and believe it heralds yet another step down the inevitable path toward artificial intelligence. All I can say is stay tuned. (Below is a 5-minute video explaining tonight’s venture.)
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Convergence: Brain-Control Interfaces & Robotics
Whenever I give presentations on emerging technologies or the future of technology, I stress to my audiences that one of the big themes they must keep in mind is convergence—the idea that different technologies will “mix and match” in unique and innovative ways.
One clear field of convergence I see on the horizon is “brain-controlled” robots. Although the 40-second video (below) is in Japanese, it offers an early (and admittedly) crude vision of how soldiers, stroke victims and senior citizens will soon be able to control robots by thought alone:
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Wrap Your Brain Around the Future
Yesterday, I explained how fast the world is moving and suggested that we all need to adjust to a new reality of “constant disruption.” In keeping with this theme, I want to highlight three articles from today’s news. The first outlines a plan to create a “comprehensive” map of a mammalian brain. The ultimate hope is to map a human brain in order to better understand such neurodevelopmental diseases as autism, schizophrenia and depression. The second article highlights how a new advance in computer software might radically speed up the mapping process.
The significance of this is that while researchers in the first article are thinking that their project will takes years, the advance in the second article strongly suggests it will take much less time. In other words, the future will arrive sooner than expected.
However, researchers involved in both projects are unlikely aware of the work of yet a third group of researchers who, according to this article, are applying the enhanced understanding of the brain (which the researchers in the first two articles are creating) to build a new generation of intelligent robots which will have more versatility and perform a wider variety of jobs because their actions will actually mimic the human brain.
The confluence and convergence of different technologies is going to lead to some startling and astounding advances. It is time we all begin wrapping our brain around this new future.
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Jump the Curve: The Internet in 5000 Days
The following TED presentation by Kevin Kelly is now more than a year old, but for anyone interested contemplating where the future of the Internet is headed I highly recommend it.
I especially like Kelly’s statement, which he makes early in the presentation, that we “have to get better at believing the impossible.” I’ve written about this theme on numerous occasions (see the posts below), but Kelly makes an excellent point. Today, the power of the Internet is the equivalent of just one human brain. Through the power of exponential growth, it will—within two decades time—equal the collective power of 6 billion human brains.
Folks, this isn’t the equivalent of linear growth. This is a quantum shift and it adds great weight to Tim Berner-Lee’s recent quote about the current Internet being only the “tip of the iceberg.”
Related Posts on Doing the Impossible
Is a $20 Laptop Computer Really Impossible?
A Healthy Disregard for the Impossible
What’s Impossible?
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Exponential Evolution: In Words and Video
When Charles Darwin first proposed writing his landmark book on evolution, The Origins of Species, his editor suggested writing a book on pigeons because, in his words, “Everyone is interested in pigeons.” Fortunately, Darwin chose to ignore the advice. I am reminded of the story because even though Darwin’s theory was proposing only that species make modest, incremental changes over long periods of time, it was—and in many circles still is—a revolutionary idea.
What then happens if evolution is not just incremental in nature but rather exponential? That, too, is a revolutionary idea—especially since it could impact us within our lifetimes.
Well, we are now approaching a time when this exponential theory of evolution will be put to the test.
If you accept the notion of evolution, you will agree that the earliest life appeared on earth approximately 4 billion years ago. Complex cellular organisms showed up 2 billion years ago, and the first multicellular organism about 1 billion years ago. The first reptiles and dinosaurs made their appearance 300 million years ago; the first primates 40 million years ago; homo sapiens appeared 160,000 years ago; Cro-Magnon man 40,000 years ago; and modern civilization as we know it began about 10,000 years ago.
Thinking about this much progress over such an extended period of time is difficult. Years ago, Carl Sagan, the famed astronomer, offered up a “cosmic calendar” to make such progress more comprehensible to the layperson. He asked that they imagine the entire history of the universe as being compressed into a single year.
Under this scenario the year would begin on January 1 with a bang—the Big Bang. Nothing much would then happen in our corner of the universe until about August when the sun would make its appearance. The earth itself wouldn’t show signs of any life until November—when the first multicellular organisms begin wiggling about. Dinosaurs show up around Christmas Eve. At 10:15 AM on December 31, apes would appear; humans would begin walking upright at 9:24 PM; modern civilization would appear at 11:59:20; Rome would fall at 11:59:57; and the Renaissance would occur just one second before midnight.
Rather amazingly, everything else—the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, the computer, the Internet, the human genome project, stem cell research, nanotechnology, etc—would be squeezed into the last second. From this perspective, I would argue that evolution can thus be seen as yet another exponential trend.
So what does it mean? If you accept the premise that each additional doubling of an exponential trend contains as much change as all the previous doublings combined, then it means that humans in our present form are not be the endpoint of humanity but merely a steppingstone to the next evolutionary stage.
To understand this concept in a video form, I recommend this video:
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Is a $20 Laptop Computer Really Impossible?
Without wanting to sound like a broken record, I am continually amazed at many people’s inability to understand how certain technological advances will make some things that sound “impossible” today imminently possible tomorrow. A case in point is this article from today’s Technology Review which has many computer and educational professional questioning the feasibility of a $20 laptop. According to the article, the idea has met with “widespread skepticism” and one official is quoted as saying “I don’t understand how anyone can build anything for real at that price.”
I understand completely that the vision of a $20 laptop may not be achievable today but, as Moore’s Law continues to progress and as software development continues to be improved through open-source mechanisms, does that mean the vision will never be achieved? Of course not.
When reading the words of such naysayers I am reminded of that old quote: “Those who say it is impossible should just get the hell out of the way of those who are making it possible.” Or another quote, which my good friend Mark jenkins recently brought to my attention:
”It is difficult to say what is impossible, for the dream of yesterday is the hope of today and the reality of tomorrow.”—Robert Goddard, Space Pioneer
Interested in other “impossible” thoughts by America’s leading futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these past posts:
A Healthy Disregard for the Impossible
What’s Impossible?
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Why Automated Cars May Arrive Sooner Than Expected
The idea of self-driving cars may seem like a far-off dream but, as I’ve written about before, the advances in robotic cars have been amazing. Perhaps somewhat counter-intuitively, I don’t think self-driving cars will simply be a matter of robotic technology “pushing” the technology to market. Instead, as customers continue to use their cellphones to do more things (call, text, email, Twitter, watch videos, etc.) they will not want to be burdened with the hassle of driving and will thus “demand” self-driving vehicles.
If you agree or disagree, I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Related posts by Jack Uldrich:
Self-Driving Cars
Elderly-Friendly Cars, Sweet!
General Motors Jumps the Curve with Smart Materials
Dude, Where’s My Flying Car?
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Nanotechnology: The Next Big Thing is Really Small
In 2003, I wrote the book: ”The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business.” In the final chapter, which covers the time period 2009-2013, I began it with this quote: “Nanostructuring represents the beginning of a revolutionary new age in our ability to manipulate materials for the good of humanity.”
Since it is now 2009, I thought it’d be a good time to revisit the field of nanotechnology and review my earlier projections. But rather than have me assess the predictions, let’s just look at the news from today—I think it speaks volumes about how far nanotechnology has progressed and, more important, it points to where the field is headed.
The first article is entitled ”Swallowing a nanotechnology pill” and it describes how carbon nanotubes are gaining traction in the field of drug delivery. The second article, ”Nanoplumbing: More than just a pipe dream”, reviews how carbon nanotubes will lead cheap desalinated water; and the final article discusses how researchers at MIT have made a nanosensor that can be placed inside living cells—and could revolutionize the field of medicine.
Interested in other articles on nanotechnology from the field’s best-selling author? Check out these past posts:
15 Ways Nanotechnology is Making Life Better Today
Nanotechnology & the Changing Face of the Electric Utility Industry
Nanotechnology & the Future of the Cellphone
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Solar’s Invisible Future?
Researchers at Duke University continue to make improvements to their “invisibility cloak.” If this sounds like something straight out of Harry Potter, well, it kind of is. Nevertheless, the technology could have some real world applications in the field of solar energy and biological imaging.
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A Healthy Disregard for the Impossible
The Economist is running a profile on one of Google co-founders, Sergey Brin. I have written about Google’s ability to jump the curve before (here and here). One of the reasons Google is successful and will continue to be is because, as Brin says, he and the company’s other leaders have a “healthy disregard for the impossible.”
“Doing the impossible,” is a theme I constantly stress with all of my audiences because, unless one understands the power of exponential growth as it relates to technological progress, they will regard as impossible many things which will be eminently possible tomorrow.
For a sample of some “impossible” ideas, check out the following old posts:
10 Reasons We Will to 1000
What’s Impossible?
The Future of Reading
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The Future of Water: Unfiltered
Late last week, it was announced that NASA had, pardon the pun, pissed away $154 million by creating a urinal/water fountain system that didn’t work. To witness how a more simple technology can have huge implications down here on this planet, watch this amazing video (Note: it is a little graphic, but one must remember that these are the real life conditions under which billions of people must actually get their water):
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The Next Household Appliance?
Did you know that there is eight times as much water in the atmosphere as there is in all of the world’s rivers? I didn’t, but you probably do know that water is becoming an increasingly scarce commodity in many parts of the world.
Therefore, the answer to the world’s water problems could, quite literally, be pulled out of thin air. This, at least, is the hope behind an innovative new company, Element Four, which has manufactured the “WaterMill”—a device it hopes will become the first mainstream household appliance to have been invented since the microwave.
At $1200, the technology is still expensive—especially in these lean economic times—but it will undoubtedly drop and, as it does, it stands a realistic chance of becoming a household appliance in some regions of the world.
If the idea sounds crazy, ask yourself this: Twenty years ago would you ever have imagined people would willingly pay $3 for a bottle of water?
Interested in other articles about the future of the home by America’s leading futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these recent articles:
The Future of the Kitchen
Throw Out the Kitchen Sync
The Future of Construction is Three-Dimensional
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The Zoo of the Future
In my book, Jump the Curve, the final chapter is dedicated to the idea of “doing the impossible.” In short, it is my contention that unless you internalize the notion of accelerating change you will dismiss as “impossible” many things that will be imminently possible tomorrow due to the exponential nature of technological progress.
A wonderful case in point is this fascinating article from today’s New York Times claiming that it might soon be possible to regenerate a Wooly Mammoth for $10 million because DNA sequencing technology is continually getting more inexpensive.
Regardless of what one may think of the moral and ethical wisdom of recreating Wooly Mammoths, it is imprudent to dismiss the idea as impossible. Yet this is precisely what Rudolph Jaenisch, a biologist at the Whitehead Institute, has done by proclaiming the idea: “a wishful-thinking experiment with no realistic chance for success.”
To my mind this quote is eerily similar to that of another expert, Lord Kelvin, who famously announced in 1899 that “Heavier than air machines are impossible.” Of course, as we all now know, just four years later the Wright Brothers proved him wrong.
With this in mind, is it possible that in 2012 the New York City Zoo might have a new addition to its line-up—such as the once extinct Wooly Mammoth? Don’t be too quick to dismiss the idea. (It’s too bad that Michael Crichton, author of Jurassic Park, didn’t live to see this day. But, as I think he knew, yesterday’s science fiction often has a way of becoming tomorrow’s science fact.)
Interested in other some farfetched articles by America’s most provocative futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these past posts:
10 Reasons We Will to 1000
What’s Impossible?
The Future of Reading
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Will I Die?
I ask the question from neither a deep-seated fear of dying nor an egotistical desire to live forever. I simply ask it from the perspective of someone who is deeply interested in the accelerating pace of change and is concerned we are heading into a future for which few of us are really prepared.
Let me begin by sharing a couple of recent news items which speak to the astounding progress being made in the field of health care.
To begin, if I am in need of surgery sometime within the next few years, it is likely that that surgery will be conducted with the assistance of a robot. Given that these robots are already better than many human surgeons, this suggest I will not only get out of the hospital faster but that I will be in better condition when I do so. Continued advances in robotics will only improve surgical outcomes over the coming years.
Next, say, I am in an accident. There is now a very good chance—due to advances in the Nationwide Health Information Network, personal electronic records and the ever-improving capability of the Internet—that my providers will be able to rapidly access a growing wealth of medical knowledge in order to keep me alive.
Much of this knowledge will likely be genetic in nature and it is not unreasonable to believe—given the extraordinary advances in genomics as well as the possibility that I will within a few years be able to sequence my own genome for less than $1000 dollars -- that I will soon be able to avail myself to a growing category of drugs individually tailored to treat me for everything from heart disease and diabetes to a wide variety of cancers.
Assuming then that I dodge some of these pesky middle-age risks, there is a very real chance, according to this article, that I’ll soon be able to ”grow replacement body parts.” We can already replace our aging hips and knees, but what happens when I can replace my lungs and, eventually, my heart?
The question is a serious one because society is closer to this future than most people realize.
Alas, these advances—which I remind you are only from the past few days—are just the beginning. I am now 44 years and it is not unreasonable to think, given recent medical progress, that I will live to 100.
But even this is the wrong way to think about this issue. The question I—and all of us, really—need to ask is what further advances will be made in the next 56 years of my life and how might they extend my life past 100 years of age?
I recall a few years ago the story of two longevity researchers who placed a wager with one another on whether a person born in the year 2000 would live to 150 years of age.
Operating on the assumption that neither person might be around to collect on the wager, they agreed to place their respective $150 bets in an interest-bearing trust fund.
Interestingly, in 150 years the $300 was calculated to grow to $500 million—assuming (I believe) a moderately aggressive annually compound interest rate of 10%.
The future of longevity seems, to me, to lie within the “power of compound interest.” Medical and biological information is growing at a rate comparable to 10% annually. Assuming medical knowledge continues at this pace for the next 56 years of my life, society will experience a roughly 256-fold increase in health care-related knowledge between today and the year 2064.
Put another way, as impressive as our medical knowledge is today, it will represent less than 1% of everything we will know when I reach the century mark.
Will that massive amount of new knowledge then help keep me alive another century? And what might we then learn within the following 100 years which could extend my life even further?
Framed this way, the question of “Will I Die,” is one we should all be contemplating—for our own sake and for the sake of society—now.
Interested in related articles by Jack Uldrich that speak to the possibility of radical life extension? Check out these past posts:
10 Reasons We Will Live to 1000
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A MAV-erick Defense Policy
At present, the United States government spends hundreds of billions of dollars in an effort to keep this country safe at home and defeat its enemies abroad. Much of the money is well spent but, often, I can’t help but feel we are wasting precious resources fighting “the last war.” As I argued in this piece a few weeks ago, we should instead be ”studying the first six months of the next war.”
To end this end, I’d like to introduce you to a revolutionary new technology which could, in the words of the chief scientist of the U.S. Air Force, be a real “game-changer.” The Air Force calls the technology Micro Air Vehicles (or MAVs) and they are small, robotic drones (roughly the size of small birds) that could conceivably follow a terrorist back into a cave in Afghanistan and eliminate him.
The Air Force claims the drones will be “unobtrusive, pervasive and lethal” and they could be ready for action as early as 2015.
It, perhaps, goes without saying that the technology also poses some legitimate civil liberty concerns here at home, but the future seems to be moving inevitably in this direction and I’d much rather have the U.S. government aggressively pursue this technology than our enemies.
It also seems to me that this is the type of technology the Pentagon should be investing more in than, say, the new $500 million next-generation F-35 jet fighters or yet another $5 billion aircraft carrier.
For, in the end, it is not how much we spend on defense that counts, rather it is how wisely we spend our money that really matters.
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What’s Impossible?
What’s impossible? The question sounds rather quixotic doesn’t it? It isn’t. It’s a question every business, political and community leader needs to ask themselves if they are truly serious about successfully leading their organization into the future.
We now live in an era of accelerating change. Every day new advances in nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, and information technology bring science fiction-like advances one step closer to becoming science fact. People unaware of these advances risk leaving their organizations unprepared to compete in this accelerating future.
A perfect case point occurred in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal. There was an article entitled ”Why the Gasoline Engine Isn’t Going Away.” Although I disagreed with the premise of the article from the beginning, I decided to read it because I like to challenge my thinking. After finishing it, though, I concluded it was a piece of trash because the author completely missed the context of accelerating technological change.
For example, in a single sentence, he dismissed the possibility of fuel cell technology because hydrogen is currently expensive to transport and store. This is true today, but will it always remain so? The answer is no. Every week new advances in nanocatalysts and nanomaterials bring practical fuel cell technology one step closer to reality.
The same was true of his dismissal of advanced battery technology. To prove his point that battery technology will never be up for the job of replacing the internal combustion engine, he quotes a single battery manufacturer and accepts their conclusion that battery technology will always be expensive. I’d encourage the author to interview officials at A123 Systems and review their new battery technology. If he does, he might have reached an opposite conclusion.
The greater problem with the article, though, is that it serves only to reinforce the power of the status quo. Change is difficult and people will often latch on to any evidence that supports a person or organization’s resistance to change. The Exponential Executive, however, does not seek comfort in the status quo. Instead he or she constantly challenges it.
To this end, one of the most powerful tools for doing this is to challenge people’s perceptions and ideas of what is impossible.
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The Future of Telecommunications in Six Videos
On Tuesday, I am traveling to Florida to give a speech on the future of the telecommunications industry. One of the bigger (and, to be honest, not terribly new) trends in the field is the continued growth of video. In the spirit of this trend, I’d like to offer you six different videos which, each in its own unique way, offers a glimpse into the future of the telecommunications industry. The first three are very cool, and the next three are more technical but still provide some very good information.
The first clip from Nokia offers an idea of what future mobile devices might look like:
The second offers an idea of how holographic information might become more pervasive:
The third video reviews how advances in algorithms and nerotechnology could lead to “voiceless” communication:
The next three clips review how terahertz transmissions, sensors and RFID technology could lead to some cool new applications for future mobile devices:
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The Future is Coming to a (Holograph) Screen Near You!
In the 2001 movie, The Minority Report (which supposedly took place in the year 2050), one of the cooler scenes had Tom Cruise’s character interacting in real-time with a holograph. Well, that future is now a lot closer than the year 2050. I invite you to watch this short video:
As this technology continues to improve, it will likely impact everything from how we communicate and interact with advertisements to how we teach our children and entertain ourselves.
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Robots Score! Do Humans Lose?
The other day I discussed why the field of robotics is advancing at an accelerating rate. To add some visual evidence to this thesis, I encourage you to watch this short, 15-second video demonstrating how a robot is now regularly beating the world’s best air-hockey players:
Undoubtedly, the idea of a robot beating a human at something as trivial as air hockey might elicit nothing more than a collective yawn from the masses, but I’d like to suggest that this is a serious issue that society needs to come to grips with now. If a robot can beat a human at air hockey, why can’t it also build a house or clear away garbage (ala the latest movie sensation, Wall-e)?
The answer is that robots will soon be able to do these tasks, as well as a variety of others, which were once considered the sole domain of humans. The resulting displacement of human labor is sure to cause a severe backlash among those put out of work. The time to begin thinking of how to retrain these workers for new careers in the 21st century is now.
Interested in some other future-related posts about robots? Check out these recent posts:
Learn from Robots
Meet Your Future, Shape-Shiting Robotic Butler
Hospitals Robotic Future
Will Robots Have Tails?
Is the Future of an ATV a Robot
The Robot Will See You Now
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Keep Your Mind’s Eye on Cybernetics
Imagine sitting in your home and being able to control a device in a different room, a different city or even a different country by thought alone. Sounds impossible doesn’t it? Well, accordingly to this fascinating article from Popular Mechanics, advances in the field of cybernetics are occurring so rapidly that such things may be possible in the not-too-distant future.
Consider this: a monkey in North Carolina can already send a signal to Japan (where it controls a robot) faster than it can send a message from its brain to its own muscles. One immediate practical application of this technology may occur in the field of surgery whereby a surgeon could control a small robotic device faster and more precisely than she could move her hand. In a field like brain surgery such a distinction could make a big difference.
It will be some time before other cybernetic devices move into the mainstream, but it is interesting to consider how such mind-machine devices may change how we perceive and interact with our environment in the future. For example, imagine being able to control a robot by thought alone. Forget to feed your dog this morning, just “think” your bot to do it. Forget to water the plants or turn off the iron? Not a problem. A solution is just a thought away.
Other potential uses, of course, go well beyond these pedantic applications; but it is worth thinking about these things because as the Popular Mechanics articles suggests “the big breaks [in the field of cybernetic] can come faster than expected.” And, as Louis Pasteur, famously said, “Chance favors the prepared mind.” This will be especially true when the mind can control things better and faster than the body can react.
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Robots Advance
Last week, I explained how humans might soon be learning things from robots. Today, I’d like to explain why robots might become a more integral part of life faster than most people expect.
Yesterday, Technology Review published an interesting article entitled: ”Robots Learns to Use Tools.” What is really intriguing about the article, which describes a new robot called the UMass Mobile Manipulator or UMan for short, is that the robot is employing sophisticated algorithms to teach itself how to deal with unfamiliar objects.
One of the major barriers to date with robotics is that programmers have had to write complicated software code to help robots deal with almost every contingency that it might encounter. For example, for a household robot to be effective, it needs to recognize every item that might conceivably be in someone house—everything from a pair of scissors to a flower vase. This is no easy chore.
In the near future, however, robots need not necessarily know how to handle every object; they merely need to learn how to deal with that object in an
appropriate fashion. Using the scissors as example, UMan can study the device and then can tinker with the blades until it understands how they are connected and how the object operates. Presumably, the robot will then know that it would be inappropriate to “run with scissors.”
The implications of self-learning robots could be quite profound—especially if they can learn faster than humans. For instance, if they can recognize and learn how things operate, they might be finally able to practical household servants—ala Rosie the Robot in the Jetson’s. They could also become more practical instruments in the agricultural industry if they can determine between which fruit or vegetable is ready to be picked or whether it needs to stay on the vine a little longer. Similarly, robots will become more effective warriors in battlefield situations if they can rapidly adapt to the enemy’s changing behavior; and there is no reason why they can’t soon be used in a variety of other fields, including the construction industry and the health care industry.
Interested in some other future-related posts about robots? Check out these recent posts:
Learn from Robots
Meet Your Future, Shape-Shiting Robotic Butler
Hospitals Robotic Future
Will Robots Have Tails?
Is the Future of an ATV a Robot
The Robot Will See You Now
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Unlearning Death
In 1899, just a few years before the Wright brothers achieved their historic accomplishment, Lord Kelvin—then one of the world’s brightest men and most accomplished scientists—declared heavier than air machines to be “impossible.”
He was wrong. To add insult to injury, Lord Kelvin was proved wrong by a pair of bicycle repairmen from Dayton, Ohio.
A few years ago, a relatively unknown computer scientist, Aubrey de Grey, declared that aging should not be viewed as something which will necessarily ultimately result in death. Rather, he theorized that aging is a disease and should be treated as such.
The outcry from the scientific community was similar to Lord Kelvin’s reaction to human flight. One group of scientists even declared that de Grey’s idea was “so far from plausible that it commands no respect at all within the informed scientific community.”
Well, according to this article in Wired, the idea is now beginning to gain some acceptance within scientific circles.
To be sure, society is still a long way from de Grey’s goal of ending again but, as I have written before, I’d encourage people to not dismiss the idea entirely. For if he is right, it will require society to unlearn a great many ideas which it now holds as dear.
In fact, the scale of unlearning our current paradigm of “death as an inevitability” could make other past historic paradigm shifts—such as the idea that the earth is not at the center of the universe (an idea for which Aristarchus was run out of Alexandria and Galileo was forced to recant under edict of the Catholic Church) or Darwin’s theory of evolution—look like child’s play.
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The Future of Reading
Reading. Most of us do it every day and it is so ingrained from such an early age that it is difficult to imagine that there is another way of doing it. Yet, there is.
On Tuesday, I had the opportunity to sit down with Adam Gordon, the vice president of marketing for Live Ink, to discuss his company’s revolutionary new technology—Live Ink.
Before explaining the technology, however, have you ever wondered why we read the way we do? That is, why do we read words in block text—such as you are doing at this very moment.
I am no historical scholar but I suspect the answer goes back thousands of years and it is partly dependent on writers need to make efficient use of limited resources. First, stone tablets; then papyrus and, ultimately, pulp-based paper.
In much the same way that the QWERTY keyboard has become the de facto way we write on computers —even though it has been demonstrated that there are more efficient and faster methods of typing -- the same can be said for how we read. But instead of dealing with one hundred years of established tradition—as in the case of QWERTY keyboard—printed text in block form has been around since Johannes Gutenberg printed off his first bible.
In the near future, however, the resistance to this long-held paradigm will begin to fade. I am not suggesting that printed block text will fade away overnight, but a convergence of technologies has now created an environment in which a different method of how we access the written word has been created.
Before I go any further let me first invite you to view a visual demonstration of Live Ink’s technology here. In its simpliest form, Live Ink displays text in shorter lines; breaks the text into grammatically meaningful segments; and then indents the text to cue the brain to key phrases within a given sentence.
What immediately appealed to me about Live Ink’s technology was the notion that written text as it was historically formatted was not optimized for the human mind. In other words, while it is true that we can read long line-by-line text that does not imply that it is necessarily the best way for the human eye to operate or for the human mind to comprehend written information.
Until recently there wasn’t much that could be done about this shortcoming. To make books compact and conserve limited resources, it helped to cram as many words onto a page as possible. Today, however, as ever more people access digital information on the Web; from their cellphones; Kindle-like electronic books; and, soon, other flexible electronic media, it will make sense to display information not as “we have always done it,” but rather in a manner that is easiest, fastest and allows us to retain the most information.
Company executives don’t make any claims that their technology improves the rate at which people read; they have, however, documented how their technology dramatically increases reading comprehension rates and eases strain on the eye.
I cannot often say with a strong conviction that I have seen the future; but, in the case of Live Ink, I truly believe I have seen the future of reading. Within months, I fully expect my website—and thousands of others—to begin placing a widget on their site that will allow readers to access written information in a new, faster and more efficient manner.
(For the record, I am in no way involved with or have a financial interest in Live Ink.)
Related Posts by Jack Uldrich:
Paper Industry Needs to Turn a New Page
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“Unusually Rapid Improvements” Will Become Usual
It was reported last week that US life expectancy topped 78 years as a variety of diseases—including heart disease, diabetes and flu—decreased this past year.
More interestingly, life expectancy—which has been increasing about two or three months from year to year—jumped an impressive four months this year. This caused one demographer to note that the increase was “an unusually rapid improvement.”
It was “an usually rapid improvement,” but I’d like to argue that such rapid improvements will become “usual” for the foreseeable future. If one tracks the amazing rate of progress in biotechnology, genomics, stem cell research and nanotechnology; it is hard—barring a devastating calamity that kills thousands or millions of people—to envision how life expectancy will do anything but continue to increase at an accelerating rate.
At a minimum, given the existing pressure on such social programs as Social Security and Medicare, it seems only prudent that we should at least begin preparing for life expectancies in the neighborhood of 100 within the next few decades.
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BMW Jumps the Curve
The German automaker BMW, in introducing its new “Light Visionary Model” prototype—which it dubs GINA (Geometry and Functions “N” Adaptions")—writes thi