Future Technology Blog | Jump The Curve | Chapter 2: Exponential Enablers

The Future Is In Your Hands

Posted on May 20, 2010 - 08:04 AM

Check out this cool video from MIT. If you don’t think that “hand gesture computing” won’t transform work, play and education in the not-too-distance future you’ve got your hand-up-your-a#$.

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Sliding into the Future

Posted on May 11, 2010 - 12:31 PM

On this day in 1947, the sleek Italian racing car named for its developer, Enzo Ferrari, made its racing debut. Since that time, Ferrari’s have continued to improve and get better.

With this little history lesson in mind, I encourage you to watch this video of a robotic car executing a nearly flawless “sliding park” manuever--the kind which we regularly see in action movies.

Like the Ferrari, robotic-driving technology is only going to get better and it suggests that self-driving vehicles may be a reality sooner than many people expect.

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Questions from the Future

Posted on May 07, 2010 - 07:05 AM

Some people never set sail because they are convinced they have already arrived. This is true in both the big and the small things in our lives. I was reminded of this fact after reading this fascinating article in the New York Times magazine, The Data Driven Life.

The story is chalkful of examples of how people are using data to change small personal habits—everything from reducing the amount of caffeinated coffee they drink to improving their infant child’s language skills—but I especially liked this line: data “includes answers to questions [we] have not yet thought to ask.”

From a larger perspective, the article highlights the growing importance of data-mining algorithms and technology. If the past was about finding the answers, the future is more about finding the answers to those “questions we have not yet thought to ask.”

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Touch the Future

Posted on Apr 13, 2010 - 04:12 PM

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A Wave to the Future

Posted on Mar 25, 2010 - 04:58 AM

I recently released an updated version of my book, Green Investing: A Guide to Making Money from Environmentally-Friendly Stocks. One area I was not bullish on in the short-term (but am long-term) is wave power. To this end, I encourage you to read this article from today’s Technology Review which reports that Scotland is developing a 1.2 gigawatt wave power project. As one industry spokesman says, “This industry is about to grow up.”

If the project is successful—and this is a big ‘if”—wave power could generate as much as 15 to 20% of Scotland’s electrical energy needs. In the U.S. the figure could be as high as 10% if the country were to develop wave power off the coasts of Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington and Massachusetts.

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Moving from the Mainframe Model of Health Care

Posted on Mar 18, 2010 - 09:13 AM

I encourage anyone interested in understanding the future direction of either healthcare or aging services to watch this insightful and informative 17-minute TED presentation from Eric Dishman.

For other articles relating to the future of health care, check out the following:

Look Inside for the Future of Healthcare
Social Networking: The Future of Health Care
The Future of Health Care is as Near as Your iPhone
Healthcare is the “Verge” of Something Big
Here Comes Intelligent Medicine
The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating
Personalized Medicine’s Accelerating Future
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift

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Cisco’s Vision of the Future

Posted on Mar 11, 2010 - 11:40 AM

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Mapping the Future of Video

Posted on Mar 04, 2010 - 07:47 AM

If you want a peek into both the future of mapping as well as the future of video, I encourage you to watch this 8-minute video from Blaise Aguuera y Arcas at the recent TED conference:

Related Posts

Video Killed the Video Star

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Video Killed the Video Star

Posted on Mar 01, 2010 - 10:39 AM

If a picture is worth a thousand words how much is a picture within a picture worth? That’s the question every video provider should be asking itself because, like this famous picture from Pere Borrell del Caso, there is often more to a picture than meets the eye.

Earlier today, I came across a new full page ad in the Wall Street Journal from Cisco saying that “Video, the killer app, just got better.” It is touting a new telepresence interoperability protocol. What makes “telepresence” so exciting is not simply the ability to communicate with other individuals or groups in real-time; it is the ability to share additional information with them in a deeper, more visual and, ultimately, more meaningful manner.

Consider, for example, the case of a doctor communicating with a patient about a rare genetic disease which affects the heart. Instead of simply providing information orally and, perhaps, conferring with another doctor for a second opinion in real-time, the doctor will also be able show her a video of what is happening at the molecular level inside her body; display a 3-D rendering of her heart to explain how the disease is progressing; and provide the patient with a more intuitive and easy-to-understand chart (or graph) showing her the odds of being successfully treated by different treatment options.

Humans are visual creatures and, to the extent that video still soon be able to layer additional data on top of—and into—video, we will all be better off.

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How Swede It Is. Recyclable Lights & Restful Nights

Posted on Feb 06, 2010 - 03:37 PM

Researchers in Sweden, together with the help of some American scientists, are reporting a big breakthrough in new nanotechnology-enabled recyclable OLEDs. The development is significant for a couple of reasons. First, OLEDs (Organic Light Emitting Diodes)—which have the potential to create super cool, super-thin, wallpaper-like lights—are very expensive. Second, the material they currently use is difficult to recycle. Before OLED can take-off—like this lighting example from history—both issues will need to be addressed and this, it appears, is what the Swedish researchers have pulled off.

From a broader perspective, I’d ask you to consider how this new lighting paradigm might change how architects design the houses, buildings and hospitals of the future> More interesting still, such an advance could drive changes in human behavior. For example, what might happen if instead of being awakened by the rude sound of an alarm clock you could instead be gently awakened by your OLED wallpaper which mimics a rising sun? Alternatively, what if your difficult-to-put-to-bed child could be coaxed into falling asleep 30 minutes earlier because the walls in her bedroom dim like the setting sun?

The possibilities are virtually limitless. I’d love to hear your ideas.

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The Future Will Soon Flex It’s Muscles

Posted on Jan 04, 2010 - 10:31 AM

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Is “Personalized Solar Energy” in Your Future?

Posted on Dec 17, 2009 - 09:29 AM

The short answer is yes. A new report explains how continued advances in solar energy, when combined with advances in fuel cell energy, will lead to more people producing their own energy on location.

The broad trend fueling advances in both solar and fuel cell technology—especially catalysts—is nanotechnology.

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Robots’ More “Socially Aware” Future

Posted on Dec 15, 2009 - 10:14 AM

Many people, myself included, expect robots to become more popular in the coming decade. One reason I’m optimistic is because social scientists (such as cultural anthropologists) are discovering how to make robots more acceptable in a variety of settings. According to this article, some hospital workers love robots while others hate them.

The difference is that the workers who hate robots hate them because they are unable to adjust their behavior to the appropriate situation. For example, if a doctor is talking in a hushed tone to a patient’s family in a cancer ward, the robots should also be quiet—but often it isn’t. As computer and sensor technology as well as algorithms get better expect many of these problems to be mitigated. The result: more robots in hospitals; aging facilities; schools and even our homes.

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Want to Know Your Future? Ask Your Phone

Posted on Dec 14, 2009 - 09:42 AM

New technology is using “mobility events” to make your smartphone even smarter. According to this article, researchers in the Netherlands have created a system that learns users’ behavior patterns to provide them with an enhanced cellphone service.

The example cited in the article involves your “going to work” routine (i.e. opening your garage, getting in the car; stopping at the local store to buy a lotto ticket, etc) and explains how your phone might be deduce what will happen next. For example, you may drive through an area with poor coverage so your phone will wait to start uploading a large file. Before long, innovative marketers will also be able to exploit this information. For instance, it may know that you also enjoy a Starbucks latte every so often and a coupon for 15% off will be sent to you whenever your with a mile of one of their stores.

I would encourage you to consider how this and related technology may also help senior citizens. I envision the day when your phone will notice that you haven’t called your grandchild in a few days and will prompt you with a reminder. Or, your phone—due to the accelerometers—may also notice that your stride is beginning to wobble and will send an alert to your doctor that you may be experiencing the early stages of a stroke.

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Is this the Future of Magazines and Newspapers?

Posted on Dec 08, 2009 - 10:39 AM

Does Sports Illustrated have its pulse on the future of magazines and newspapers? I believe it does. I encourage you to watch this three minute video demonstration of what the company is working on:

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Supercomputers Super Future

Posted on Nov 18, 2009 - 11:06 AM

Marshall McCluhan once famously said, “First, we shape our tools and then our tools shape us.” As a professional futurist, I have been trying to explain how some of our tools are getting exponentially more powerful. In turn, these tools are accelerating the advances that will soon shape our future. Nowhere is this more true than in the field of supercomputers.

According to this ComputerWorld article, supercomputers with 100 million cores and capable of one quintillion calculations per second—or 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 for those of you counting at home—will arrive around 2018. This growing processing power is important because it will help innovative researchers, scientists and entrepreneurs design next-generation materials, drugs, bio-fuels, batteries and much, much more.

To better understand supercomputers amazing power, I invite you to watch this two-minute video I put together last year. Although be forewarned, one quadrillion is already rather quaint:

Interested in other supercomputer-related madness by America’s leading futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these past posts:

Supercomputers; Solving Problems Big and Small
Future Flash with Jack Uldrich: SuperComputers

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The Future of Health Care is All About Unlearning

Posted on Nov 03, 2009 - 10:51 AM

My friends at MedGagdet have been doing a bang up job of covering the recent health care conference at TED. I invite you to review the proceedings from Day 2. The one thing that struck me is how—although unstated—the theme of unlearning underlies so many of the talks.

For example, the first speaker addressed how new virtual reality tools and high-speed digital/Internet connections may soon make “surgical collaboration” the new norm and lead to better surgical outcomes for patients—provided that is today’s surgeons can unlearn their “go-it-alone” style. The second speaker discussed why the current paradigm for diagnosing cancer (i.e. tissue-based diagnosis) may soon give way to more precise molecular diagnosis. Next, Aubrey de Grey talked about why aging should be viewed as a disease and not something that is inevitable. (I’ve written about this topic before and if de Grey is correct it will unleash a wave of unlearning.) Finally, Eric Dishman provided a glimpse of a new home-based health care delivery system.

My point is this: The technological advances which are driving these changes are real and they portend a better health care future for all of us. Unless leading professionals are willing to unlearn their current paradigms, however, many of these benefits will be unnecessarily delayed.

I have said it before and I will say it again—unlearning can be a matter of life or death, literally!

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The Future of Politics Will be Augmented

Posted on Nov 02, 2009 - 03:23 PM

It has been said that it’s easy to tell if a politician is lying: all you have to do is see whether his or her lips are moving. I’m not that cynical about politics but when I do hear a politician speaking I would like to know which interest groups have contributed to that individual so I can better understand who they are really “representing.” (This information would be very helpful during the current debate over health care reform.)

Such information is, of course, available through sites such as the Center for Responsive Politics. But in today’s “app-centric” world what I want to see is a downloadable app for my iPhone that allows me to point my phone at a politician (or a picture of that politician) and have the names—and the dollar amounts—of the lobbying organizations that have contributed to that individual appear on the image. To make the app more fun—and, arguably, realistic—perhaps the developer could even dress up the politician in a NASCAR-like racing suit so that their various “sponsors” logos are appended on their suit.

If such an app already exists, I’d love to hear about it. If one doesn’t, my guess is that one will within the next year.

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A Walk into the Future with Robotics

Posted on Oct 28, 2009 - 08:47 AM

To get a glimpse of where the future of robotics may be headed, I encourage you to watch this one-minute video from Boston Dynamics:

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The Future of Social Networking & Genetic Testing

Posted on Oct 23, 2009 - 10:03 AM

Last month, I explained why social networking was the future of health care. One reason I feel strongly about this trend is because of the accelerating pace of technological change. More specifically, I don’t think doctors and other health care professionals can possible stay abreast of the latest developments. Nowhere is this more true than in the field of the genomic sciences.

To this end, it was recently reported that genetic tests puzzle most doctors. One possible solution is for patients with rare genetic profiles to begin communicating with knowledgable individuals who suffer from the same genetic disorder. Social networking offers the best medium for finding these individuals; communicating with them; and, ultimately, compiling a database of information which will be useful to both future patients and healthcare professionals.

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The Future of Aging is About to Get Easier

Posted on Oct 23, 2009 - 09:24 AM

I speak frequently to aging services associations around the country and I always like to show them the latest videos of where various technologies might be headed. To this end, I invite you to watch this two-minute video on the future direction of robotic technology. Be forewarned, however, the idea of a robotic bed that turns into wheelchair sounds cool (and it is) but, as this article explaining how a man recently got arrested for drinking-and-driving in his motorized Lazy-Boy lounge chair demonstrates, the concept is not without some risk.

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The Future Can Be Viewed With Augmented Reality

Posted on Oct 21, 2009 - 12:46 PM

I have always been impressed with the work being done at Georgia Tech and recently I had the opportunity to conduct an all-day workshop on emerging technologies with IT officials from around the state of Georgia. I spent a good deal of time discussing augmented reality but I wish I would have known about the video from Georgia Tech which I have posted below. Better than a verbal explanation, it vividly shows how augmented reality might be used to enhance the flow of traffic in the near future.

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The CIA Jumps the Curve—Again

Posted on Oct 21, 2009 - 10:16 AM

Last year, I explained how the CIA was using a Wikipedia-like device to improve the work of it’s intelligence analysts. Well, the spy agency has once again “jumped the curve.” It was recently reported that the CIA has taken an equity stake in a Visible Technologies, a software company which specializes in monitoring social media. There is a wealth of valuable knowledge floating around in all the digital data that is now being created. Those organizations that can figure out how to convert this data into knowledge—and even better, wisdom—are the most likely to succeed.

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Sur-Prize: The Future Can Be 10% Better

Posted on Sep 25, 2009 - 09:56 AM

F. Scott Fitzgerald once said that the “test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two diametrically opposed ideas in your head at the same time.” With this quote in mind, I’d now like to ask you to hold on to my earlier advice of ”Thinking 10X, Not 10%” while also appreciating the beauty of gaining a 10% improvement.

More specifically, earlier this week, Netflix awarded a $1 million prize to a group of researchers who developed an algorithm that lead the company to improve their movie recommendations to their customers by 10%. The result—in the form of increased sales—will more than offset the cost of the prize.

I mention this example because there are so many other industries that could increase productivity by awarding a prize. The most famous example is Gold Corp which earned millions by allowing outsiders to access their mining data in research of new gold reserves. One industry, in particular, that should employ this device is the oil industry.

Just today I came across this article suggesting researchers are trying to employ nanotechnology to help the oil industry increase oil production from existing wells by 10%. Now I’m a big fan of nanotechnology helping the oil industry, but the industry should follow Netflix’s example and award a prize to any researcher (or group of researchers) who can increase the yield by 10% (while keeping the cost of discovering that oil within certain parameters—i.e. $60-a-barrel). What do they have to lose?

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The Future is in Your Pocket

Posted on Sep 03, 2009 - 09:56 AM

Later this month I will be speaking to the Texas Travel Industry Association about the future. As I have said before—and will say again—the future is already here; it just isn’t evenly distributed. To this end, I invite you to watch this short video from CNET explaining how augmented reality is coming to a phone near you very soon. Among other things, it will help tourists navigate new environments. Those businesses which depend on tourism dollars would be wise to figure out how they can exploit this new technology—now.

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Hospitals Offer a Glimpse of Future Computers

Posted on Sep 01, 2009 - 10:58 AM

Often, when we think of technology, we like to imagine how it will transform different industries. It is less easy to imagine how certain industries will transform technology. Luckily, this fine articlefrom The New Scientist -- which is based on a new report from IT Analysts Gartner—takes a look at how voice recognition, eye tracking, virtual reality and brain-neural technology are being transformed by their early adoption in hospitals.

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The Future is Getting Cheaper

Posted on Aug 28, 2009 - 08:07 AM

Last year I had post entitled The Future is Cheap in which I explained how technological advances are converging to drive down the price of a number of products and services. Today, yet another example has been brought to my attention. The price of In-Vitro Fertilization (IVF) is currently about $12,000 in the U.S. In Africa, however, a team of researchers now hopes to do it for $300.

Regardless of what one thinks about the wisdom or ethics of providing IVF to thousands of women in Africa, my point is that it won’t be long before the price in the U.S. and other places begins to drop rapidly.

If you want to jump the curve, one effective strategy is to seriously contemplate how your product or service might similarly be “disrupted” and provided for only “pennies” tomorrow.

Related Posts

The Future is Cheap
Cheaper and Better

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The Future of Robotic Surgery is Speeding Up

Posted on Aug 26, 2009 - 02:35 PM

As readers know, I have been bullish on robotics practical applications in health care for some time (as this old post demonstrates.) Nevertheless, this 3-minute video shows how surgical robots are about to become a whole lot better—very soon. Enjoy!

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140 Health Care Uses for Twitter

Posted on Aug 26, 2009 - 02:23 PM

140 Health Care Uses For Twitter

View more documents from Phil Baumann.

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The Future of the Utility Industry

Posted on Aug 13, 2009 - 10:57 AM

Over the past year, I have addressed a great many organizations involved in the utility industry. Part of my message has focused on how technology is transforming many aspects of their business. Another part of my message focuses on how advances in solar, wind, clean coal, fuel cell technology, geothermal, marine power and demand-management technologies—which I covered in my latest book, Green Investing -- will change their business.

The biggest part of my message, however, centers on how industry leaders need to “jump the curve” and begin thinking much differently about the future.

To this end, there is a wonderful article in this month’s Fast Company entitled ”Beyond the Grid.” From my perspective, the operative quote is this one, ”Distributed energy is happening.”

Let me repeated that: ”Distributed energy is happening.” It is a message everyone involved in the utility business should take to heart—immediately. Due to politics, the regulatory environment, as well as the inertia of human behavior, distributed energy and the micro-grid won’t arrive tomorrow but innovative utilities need to begin planning now—not in 5 or 10 years—for this new future.

Many utilities will argue that due to economies of scale that they can continue to produce and transmit electricity better and cheaper. And this is true—today.

As long-time readers know, I am a huge fan of history and years ago executives in the railroad industry laughed off competition from the airline industry because their consultants argued that rail would always be cheaper than flight. These consultants failed to recognize that customers would value time and convenience more than price. In much the same way, the microgrid will yield benefits beyond price.

In much the same way, executives at Ma Bell also laughed off the idea that their exulted status could be challenged. Today, as we know, things are much different in the telecommunications arena. Could the same happen in the utility industry? Sure. Wind and solar power are not price-competitive with coal and nuclear power today, but they are improving quickly and grid-parity is on the horizon.

If one studies the trends and the technologies affecting the utility industry as I do, it is easy to imagine a much different future for the utility industry than the one that exists today.

The prudent utility companies should be planning today for how they intend to first survive and, then, how they might even thrive in this new environment.

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TED “Jumps the Curve” Goes Exponential

Posted on Aug 07, 2009 - 09:15 AM

I am a huge fan of TED and it’s educational videos. I have now learned that TED is allowing independent groups to sponsor TEDx events in a series of different locations, including my hometown of Minneapolis. It is a wonderful example of “jumping the curve” because rather than trying to tightly control its image and content, TED is reaching out to thousands—perhaps hundreds of thousands—of creative people.

Below is a short video about the program. As it states at the beginning, the TED programs were once viewed by 1000 people a year. Today, 300,000 people download a TED video everyday. Soon, that number will take another exponential leap forward:

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The Future Will Get Under Your Skin

Posted on Jul 31, 2009 - 08:37 AM

I know I just said the other day that social networking is the future of health care. But another healthcare trend I am equally bullish on is the utilization of robots for the treatment of a growing assortment of ailments. The picture to the right shows you how incredibly small these devices are getting (1 millimeter) and they are only going to get smaller due to continuing advances in nanotechnology. As they do, according to this article, these devices will eventually be able to do everything from deliver drug loads to precise locations to clean out clogged arteries.

The future is about to under your skin and, while the idea might make some people’s skin crawl, it will also make them healthier.

For other robotic-related madness, check out these old posts:

The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)
The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift

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Social Networking: The Future of Health Care

Posted on Jul 27, 2009 - 01:05 PM

Social networking is the future of health care for three very simple reasons: It is better for patients; providers; and payers.

Let’s first look at how a variety of social networking tools such as Facebook, Twitter, PatientsLikeMe and scores of iPhone applications are improving people’s health.

Ironically, the power of these tools does not rest so much in their technological capabilities—as impressive as they may be—as they do in their ability to harness and channel one of humankind’s oldest motivators: The desire to do what is right for one’s family and one’s community.

And, herein, lies the real power of social networking tools—they allow patients to share health care information with their family, friends, colleagues and, increasingly, even strangers. This act of sharing information then serves as a powerful mechanism for holding people accountable for performing the very actions which will lead to an improvement in health care outcomes.

Today, any number of procedures, including weighing oneself, taking medications, or checking one’s blood pressure or glucose level can easily be monitored online. This, in turn, allows interested parties to monitor one’s performance. A friendly “atta boy” from a daughter or grandson is more powerful than a chiding from a nurse or doctor.

Moreover, if there is an incentive attached to using a social networking tool to continuous monitor performance, it can serves as an additional motivator. (To gain an appreciation of the opportunity in this area, I invite you to watch this 5-minute video of Vena’s new social networking platform.)

Second, social networking tools, will help health care professionals reconnect with the reason most of them went into the profession in the first place—namely, to care for people. Again, it is somewhat ironic that instead of “depersonalizing” the patient-doctor relationship (as many people fear), social networking tools allow professionals more time to focus more on the human-side of the business—and less on the administrative tasks.

For example, by utilizing tools such as Myca, Medscape and Epocrates, doctors can quickly and accurately research and diagnose diseases. This will leave them more time to explain, educate and treat patients. In the case of Hello Health, patients can use its FaceBook-like application to pull-up a doctor’s schedule, select a time slot, indicate the type of appointment, ask questions in advance, and then schedule the appointment. This simple tool saves the patient from having to sit unnecessarily in the doctor’s office and it allows the provider to be better prepared when he/she arrives for the consultation with the patient.

The third reason the industry will inevitably move toward the rapid adoption of social networking tools is because it will save hospitals, insurance companies and the government billions of dollars. As one doctor recently said, “This is a $2.4 trillion industry run on handwritten notes ... we’re using a 3000-year-old tools to deliver health care in the richest country on this planet.”

Not for long.

To understand the opportunity for savings, it first helps to know that that the Mayo Clinic—now regarded as a leader in employing social networking tools—has spent a total of only $1,500 on the area. The majority of social networking tools are free. In Mayo’s case, its podcasts regularly educate up to 80,000 listeners at a time, and it’s YouTube channel is saving thousands of patients from unnecessary visits. Elsewhere, innovative health care providers in Spain are using the virtual reality site, Second Life, to consult with teenagers about sexually transmitted diseases, while others are using SimulConsult to help generalists make the better and earlier diagnoses of rare diseases and conditions. The net result is that patients are being treated sooner at a lower cost.

One hundred thousand (100,000) doctors are using Epocrates at an average of 6 times-a-day. This and other social networking tools will continue to explode in the years ahead because it is a proverbial win-win-win situation for the patients, providers and payers.

If you are interested in the future of health care from the perspective of everything from robotics, RFID technology and genomics to biotechnology and nanotechnology, check out the following past posts:

The Future of Health Care is as Near as Your iPhone
Healthcare is the “Verge” of Something Big
Here Comes Intelligent Medicine
The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating
Personalized Medicine’s Accelerating Future
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift

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The Future of Clothes is Small

Posted on Jun 15, 2009 - 06:19 AM

A while back, I discussed how nano-fabrics would be big business, I still stand-by that assessment and, in fact, I am even more confident after reading this article which discusses how researchers at the U.S. Army Natick Soldier Research Development and Engineering Center are exploring how to employ nanotechnology to make multifunctional uniforms.

The advances that the center is investigating go well beyond what companies such as Nano-Tex are doing to make pants and shirts stain-resistant. Specifically, the Army is interested in incorporating batteries and sensors directly into soldier’s uniforms. Today, it has been estimated that the average soldier carries about 30-pounds of batteries into battle, and these batteries do everything from power night-vision googles, laser-range finders, advanced radios and networked computers. Obviously, it is important that these devices don’t run out of juice during the heat of the battle.

By directly incorporating nanomaterials into polymers and fabrics, the Army is hoping to either capture the photons from the sun to help keep the batteries powered longer or, alternatively, use the thermal heat generated from a soldier’s body to augment a battery’s longeveity.

The technology is still a ways off, but the Natick facility is reportedly close to testing some of these technologies out in the field. I would encourage executives in the clothing, textile and retail industries to keep abreast of these advances because in the near future I see people powering their iPods, laptops, cellphones and other electronic devices not just from the batteries in those devices but from the batteries in their clothing. It might sound odd today, but if you ”jump the curve” I think you’ll agree that it is almost destine to happen—just think after going for a long run with your Nike+iPod system that your device will come back with even more power than when you left!

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The Future of Association Meetings

Posted on Jun 09, 2009 - 09:55 AM

In my business as a futurist and a public speaker, I have addressed hundreds of business association meetings. They are great networking opportunities, but it is not uncommon at these events to see a great many people stick to the safety of their pre-existing social circles. There is nothing inherently wrong with this, but most people would probably agree that in so doing these people are missing out on a great opportunity to form new connections as well as gain insight from other people whom they haven’t—and might never—meet.

Well, there is a new technology brewing on the horizon which could radically alter the dynamics of future meetings and enhance the productivity of these meetings. The technology I am speaking of is known as ’smart badges” and while they have been around in a limited form for the past few years, the technology is now getting better and they are poised to have a big impact on how future meetings are conducted—especially association meetings.

For instance, if you look at the picture above it is easy to see who is talking to who. Armed with this information, it might be easier for people to make common connections. For example, if you don’t know Bob but you see that your friend Sarah does, it might be easier for you to introduce yourself to Bob. Similarly, the technology can be used to bring together people who share common interests, hobbies or who might have even read the same book. It is even feasible to draw in people who would otherwise prefer to stay on the fringe—and this could be important because these people might have something really valuable to add to the conversation.

MIT’s Media Lab and such spin-off companies as nTag are producing a variety of innovative new technologies that could revolution the field of sociometrics. When one couples this progress with advances being made in the fields of mobile communication, RFID technology and software programs and algorithms, it boggles the mind to think how much more enjoyable, informative and entertaining future business and trade association meetings might be.

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The Future of the Automobile

Posted on Jun 09, 2009 - 08:12 AM

Last year, I gave a keynote presentation on “Future Trends” to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association. Since many of these trends are directly applicable to the automobile industry—which, as you known, is undergoing a bit of turmoil these days—I thought I would draw up a list of ten trends I see influencing the automobile industry over the next five to ten years.

Trend #1: Smart Materials

It has been said that a picture is worth a thousand words. I agree and so if you want to see the future of “smart materials,” I’d strongly encourage you to watch this short video about General Motor’s work in the field. (I know, I know ... GM is now in bankrupcy but that doesn’t minimize its work in this exciting field.)

Within the next few years a number of cars will possess body parts—such as air dams and handles—made out of shape memory alloys. Self-cleaning glass and scratch-resistant panels will also become the norm. Slightly longer term, self-healing rubber -- such as BASF is developing—will be incorporated into cars.

Trend #2: Nanotechnology

To a large degree it is advances in nanotechnology which are enabling many of the aforementioned products, but nanotechnology will also lead to the creation of new and more effective catalysts which will reduce the amount of platinum and palladium automobile manufacturers use. Nanoparticles will also be used to improve fuel efficiency. In fact, Oxonica is already testing its nanoparticles on buses in England (where they have demonstrated a 4.3% in fuel efficiency), and new nanocoatings such as Ecology Coatings is developing will reduce both the amount of material and energy OEMs use to coat existing auto parts.

Trend #3: Better Batteries

Again, thanks to advances in nanotechnology (this time in the form of new nanomaterials and silicon nanowires), a number of manufacturers are producing extraordinary leaps in battery technology. Companies such as EEStor, A123 Systems and Altair Nanotechnologies should all be closely monitored because they could soon be building batteries capable of powering a car for 300 to 400 miles. (As an added benefit, they might need only a few minutes to recharge.)

Trend #4: Web 2.0

The term “Web 2.0” is trendy to be sure but it is impacting the automobile industry today. Companies like BMW are already using wikis and exploiting the open-source movement in order to reach out to the “wisdom of crowds” and speed up product innovation. (For more information, visit BMW’s Virtual Innovation Center.)

Beyond that, however, new sites such as Dash Express and IntelliOne are using electronic information to improve the driving experience. This is not going to change. In fact, it will only become more pronounced in the near future as more and more information streams onto the Internet.

Trend #5: Flexible Electronics

Soon information and directions will be embedded directly into windshields. The picture to the right says it all.

Trend #6: Robotics

I have written extensively on this topic. (For more information just click here, here or here.) But this past January, the CEO of GM, Rick Wagoner, said that “self-driving cars” are possible within a decade. If one tracks the near exponential advances in robotics, sensors, and GPS technology and then considers the success achieved at this past year’s DARPA “Urban Challenge,” this seems to be a reasonable timeframe.

More near-term, however, robotics will continue to take over some basic functions—such as parking in tight spaces. But instead of self-parking being a service that is offered only on luxury cars, it’ll soon become a standard feature on every car.

Trend #7: Biofuels and Synthetic Biology

Personally, I’m not a fan of ethanol. However, advances in the field of cellulosic ethanol and, slightly longer-term, synthetic biology; will fundamentally alter the energy equation. I still believe battery technology offers a more practical alternative to fossil fuel but, in combination with new advanced biofuels, the car of the future will be very eco-friendly.

Trend #8: Biology

That’s right biology. Many next-generation automotive designs will likely draw their inspiration straight from biology. Daimler has already studied the Boxfish to create a more aerodynamic car and I believe other engineers will continue to find even more inspiration from the natural world around us.

Trend #9: Neurotechnology

Scientists and researchers at Toyota are already studying drivers brain patterns to help keep them alert. For example, if an elderly driver is getting too distracted it will soon be possible for “smart computers” to sense this and begin shutting down superfluous features. The advantage is that driver’s reaction time will improve. (Long-term, robotics should completely take-over some driving activities. See Trend # 6)

Trend #10: Others

I know this is cheating, but since I wanted to keep the list to ten I am simply going to point out that computers, software, RFID, rapid prototype manufacturing and speech and voice recognition technology are all going to continue to improve and will impact how the car of the future is designed and operated.

For example, engineers will continue to have access to increasingly powerful supercomputers from which they will be able to create new designs. New advanced algorithms will then take these designs and further refine them into working parts, and many of the new parts will then be built to exacting tolerances due to advances in rapid prototype manufacturing. And, of course, the driver will be sure those parts are working as result of continued advances in RFID technology.

All told, these trends suggest that not only will your next car not resemble your “father’s Oldsmobile,” it won’t even look or operate much like today’s advanced self-parking, GPS-laden, hybrid SUVs.

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The Future of Search … Isn’t Search

Posted on May 29, 2009 - 11:13 AM

With something which has been touted and even hyped for more than 50 years—as has the field of artificial intelligence—it is easy to dismiss predictions from proponents that “this time it is different.” But one of the funny things about the future is that sometimes (not always, however) “this time” really is different. To this end, I invite you to read this informative article in today’s Mercury News entitled ”Siri Lifts veil on intelligent assistant.”

I especially liked this quote: “The future of search isn’t search. It’s a conversation with someone you trust.” That “someone” will, most likely, be an artificial intelligent agent. The reason is three-fold. First, people are becoming increasingly comfortable relying on their iPhones and smartphones for a wealth of information. Thus, the idea of relying on artificial intelligence is rapidly gain ground in our culture. Second, Moore’s Law isn’t going to slow down for at least another decade which means that computers will become, at a minimum, a 1000-fold more powerful in the coming decade. Third, and most important, due to sophisticated algorithms, artificially intelligent bots can learn from your preferences as well as the preferences of others. In other words, machines can learn and get smarter at a much faster rate than us mere mortals.

Welcome to the Exponential Economy my friends. Your artificially intelligent guide stands ready to assist you on your journey.

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Jump the Curve, Today!

Posted on May 05, 2009 - 09:01 AM

I have said it before and I will say it again, ”The future is here. It is just not evenly distributed.” For proof of this statement and a glimpse into tomorrow, I suggest that you only peruse today’s news. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Case Western Reserve is experimenting with a new version of Kindle for textbooks. It is only a matter of time before e-books begin replacing old-fashion textbooks on campuses around the world. (Of course, this begs the question of whether colleges will even be relevant in the future.)

Elsewhere, researchers at UCSD have reported that advances in the field of quantum dots have taken society one step closer to ”mainstreaming nanotechnology in medicine.” And, if you don’t think the robotic revolution is real, check out this story reporting that a robot now has its own Facebook page.

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Can Google & Twitter Help Predict the Future?

Posted on Apr 30, 2009 - 08:54 AM

The current recession has been particularly hard on two industries: travel and real estate. Professionals in these industries might be interested to know that the Internet’s latest exponential sensation, Twitter, might not only help them predict their future, it—along with Google real-time web search—might help those industries recover sooner by helping them better target their existing resources.

According to this fascinating article in New Scientist, Google researchers and economic forecasters have used information gleaned from Google and Twitter to discern what people were thinking or doing at any particular moment and used that data to more accurately assess their intentions.

For example, real-time searches of Twitter or specific websites could help real estate agents know what features, price points or locations are on the top of people’s minds right now. In the same way, tourism officials could use real-time search to better target their ads to lure customers to their destinations.

None of this targeting is new. What is new is that the information taken from Twitter and Google offers faster and more accurate predictions—up to 15% more accurate.

My prediction: Those businesses that learn how to employ real-time search will be the ones most likely to still be in business in a few years. And, to help predict this outcome, I intend to Tweet this post.

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The Future of Healthcare is as Near as the Phone

Posted on Apr 21, 2009 - 09:18 AM

I often speak to healthcare associations and this past fall I gave the keynote presentation at a Verizon and Alcatel-Lucent conference on the future of wireless technology for the healthcare industry.

Perhaps, not surprisingly, a key theme I emphasized was wireless technologies ability to fundamentally alter how certain services are provided and, in the process, drive down costs.

To this end, I’d like to share two articles from today’s new that reiterate these points in spades. The first article, ”Remote Monitoring of the Heart,” is from Technology Review and it discusses how new wireless sensors when combined with the cellphone can radically reduce the number of hospitalizations which occur due to heart failure. According to one doctor the technology ”could save $20 billion in hospitalizations each year.”

The second article, ”Mobile Clinical Imagining On a Smart Phone,” highlights how innovative researchers at Washington University in St. Louis have found a way to using off-the-shelf technology to convert a smartphone into an imaging device. The potential to quickly and inexpensively scan a patient’s kidney, liver, bladder or almost any other body part from remote distances is quite amazing. The ability for professionals in rural areas to be trained in how to use this technology could reduce the need (and the cost) for many patients to travel to urban clinics or hospitals for evaluation.

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Robots: The Ultimate Killer App?

Posted on Apr 20, 2009 - 04:37 PM

P.W. Singer, the author of “Wired for War,” provides an excellent overview of how far robotics have already advanced in this provocative TED presentation:

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Healthcare is at the “Verge” of Something Big

Posted on Apr 03, 2009 - 10:17 AM

As a result of accelerating advances in wireless technology, sensor and RFID technology, and Web 2.0 open-source platforms, it is clear that technology, communication tools, and healthcare is about to converge in a way that will fundamentally transform the future of healthcare.

I am particularly excited about how this convergence will deliver better, more timely and, ultimately, more accurate healthcare information and, in the process, dramatically improve the quality of patients lives.

The revolution will begin slowly but it has already begun as I explained in this post. Innovative companies, including Nike, are already developing “smart” clothing that can allow consumers and their health-providers better methods for managing and tracking healthcare outcomes. As wireless technology continues to be embedded with pacemakers and other more sophisticated devices, the revolution will take another big leap forward.

Such diagnostic technology is just one component of the revolution. Soon, new social “apps” will be developed that will allow consumers to make managing their health more like a game than a chore. Imagine, for example, an application on your iPhone that tracks your caloric intake and then calculates the reduction into an estimated “life savings.” (In essense, the tool will provide an immediate and positive feedback loop to encourage the desired behavior.) Beyond such games, the ever-evolving world of social networking tools will soon also allow your friends and loved ones to track and monitor your health. Imagine receiving a text message from your granddaughter encouraging you to exercise more. My guess is that it will be much more effective than a call from your doctor.

As the advances in genomics continue to proliferate expect the convergence of a variety of technologies to step in and help healthcare professional manage this plethora of data. As the price of sequencing individuals’ genomes plummets it is unreasonable to expect healthcare professionals to have direct knowledge of all of this genomic information. One solution is likely to be the creation of new genome apps which doctors can readily access to learn about, say, all of the genes now associated with heart disease.

The second and more innovative solution is likely to develop around new “patient-based” networks which emerge to help patients take direct control of those unique illnesses and diseases which center around specific gene-related diseases. I have written before about “crowd-sourcing” but I believe the convergence of all of the aforementioned technologies will soon allow—and indeed necessitate—the creation of such “crowdsourced” networks to help people better understand and deal with their unique genetic make-up.

Finally, I would add that the future of healthcare is going to convergence in some very interesting—and unexpected ways—because of the diversity of companies now moving into the space, including Intel, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Google and Amazon. This list, of course, doesn’t even begin to take into account the thousands of smaller, innovative companies seeking to become the next big healthcare player.

Whichever Small company (or companies) does become the “next big thing,” my prediction is that they will have found their “sweet spot” at the convergence of technology, communication and healthcare.

The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating

Posted on Feb 25, 2009 - 09:48 AM

I speak frequently to hospitals and healthcare associations around the country on the future of healthcare (see related posts below). One of the big themes I stress is that technology is accelerating. To help emphasize this point, I’d just like to take a peek at healthcare innovation from the perspective of one day—today.

I began my morning by reading about the new ”Doctor Kiosk”—an automated healthcare interface that aims to streamline preventative screening—which will soon be making its debut in the United Kingdom. The hope is that the device will transform healthcare delivery in a way similar to how the ATM transformed banking.

Next, I came across this news that the first-ever “crowdsourced” healthcare book has been published. The topic is on the rare disease of vulvodynia, but its significance is that the Internet is empowering ordinary citizens—who happen to have a great deal of experience with rare diseases—are supplementing and possibly replacing healthcare professionals. I don’t know where all of this will lead but as advances in the field of genomics continues to grow, I expect that individuals with rare genes will be relying more on one another than medical experts—who simply can’t be expected to know that much about the role that thousands of different genes play.

Finally, there was this report that Mako Surgical has introduced a new robotic system to help assist with orthopedic knee surgeries. It is yet another sign that robotic surgery is on the cusp of explosive growth.

Alas, all of this occurred in just one day. I can hardly wait to see what tomorrow brings.

Interested in other health care-related posts by America’s leading healthcare futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these recent articles:

Personalized Medicine’s Accelerating Future
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift

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Search, Do … Be

Posted on Feb 24, 2009 - 09:45 AM

It’s true. Sometimes a picture is worth more than a 1000 words. To understand where information technology is headed just study the picture to the right. Technology Review has a great article on intelligent software agents and it explains how the search engine might soon give way to the “do engine.” When it does, our lives will be much more simple but the job of personal assistant will be relegated to the ash heap of history along side chimney sweeps and telephone operators.

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Re-"Kindle”: The Future?

Posted on Feb 10, 2009 - 07:46 AM

In late 2007, I wrote this piece about the future of education being “rekindled.” In it, I advised readers to expect further advances.

Yesterday’s introduction of the latest Kindle device has borne out this advise. The new electronic book is twice as thin; has a 7.5X increase in memory capacity (meaning it can now store 1500 books versus only 200 for the first device); has a 25% improvement in battery life; has 16 shades of gray (versus 4); is easier to navigate; and comes with a cheesy, robotic speech recognition device that can read aloud the text of the book.

Many of the reviews have been overly critical of the latter tool, but it is important to remember that speech/voice recognition technology—like almost everything else in Kindle (except the price)—is only going to get better with time. In fact, within a few years, I envision electronic books will serve as substitute reading tutors in public schools. (Note: I’m not predicting that Amazon’s Kindle will necessarily be the de facto device to play this role. Google and others will soon develop similar devices that may be even easier to use and come with a more attractive price.)

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Jump the Curve: February 6, 2009

Posted on Feb 06, 2009 - 03:12 PM

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Your Robotic Future?

Posted on Feb 06, 2009 - 09:28 AM

The other day I wrote about how robots were a ”major game changer.” Yesterday, I came across a fascinating article explaining how advances in algorithms are helping robots teach themselves; and today I bring you this short video on how advanced personal robots have become (see below). The robots are still a little bulky, slow and inflexible; but I think you’ll agree that they are dramatic improvement over what was available just last year. As robots continue to improve, I expect nursing homes, hospitals and other aging-related facilities to embrace the technology.

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Strategies for innovating into the future:

Global futurist and author Jack Uldrich offers essential strategic information on nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, RFID and many other future technologies to help you prosper as exponential trends converge at this unique moment in history.

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Re-"Kindle”: The Future?

Jump the Curve: February 6, 2009

Your Robotic Future?