Chapter 4: The Power of Play

To Better Understand the Future, Add Some Sci-Fi to Your Reading Diet

As I stated in my 2008 book, Jump the Curve, one effective way to jump the curve is to add some science fiction to your reading diet—it can be a great source of inspiration and creativity. To this end, the Wall Street Journal yesterday ran this article, Technology is Stranger Than Fiction. I particularly enjoyed this quote: “In a time of great change, fiction can sometimes provide better understanding than facts alone.” Along these same lines, PC Pro recently published this article entitled ”The sci-fi legends who shaped today’s tech.” My favorite quote: “Sci-fi can consciously or unconsciously help [you] think outside the box.”

So there you have it—further proof that adding some sci-fi to your reading diet is good for your long-term health.

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The Future is Cloudy

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To Succeed in the Future: Think Like a Child, Now

Success Magazine recently published an article entitled ”Think Like a Child” in which I was quoted extensively. I encourage you to read it because, in addition to my insights (which I naturally think are insightful), it cites a number of other experts and practioners of “thinking like a child.” Here are a few highlights:

1. Children are naturally curious and open-minded;
2. Children aren’t conscious of what other people think;
3. Children don’t easily take “no” for an answer;
4. Children understand that recess can be the most important part of the day;
5. Children engage their imagination and aren’t afraid to try on new roles;
6. Children draw their inspiration from other children; and
7. Children don’t view setbacks as failures. 

For some other child-like thoughts, I invite you to review these past writings:

The Power of Play
Stop Acting Your Age
Take a Mandatory Recess
The Power of Creative Play
Cultivate a Beginner’s Mind

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Future Headline: Teenager Controls Mars Rover from Home

Yesterday, on the front page of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, there was this article: Flying deep into the Middle East, from a cockpit in Fargo. The piece, which documented how Air Force personnel are controlling drones over Iraq and Afghanistan, was likely met with a collective yawn by most of the reading public. However, if you stop and think about it for a moment, the idea would probably have been dismissed as preposterous as recently as a few years ago. I mean think about it: Kids in North Dakota using their computer to control flying robots half a world away.

Alas, such is the nature of technological progress. To get your creative futuristic juices flowing let me offer another possible headline from the future: Teenager Controls Mars Rover from Home. As NASA gets more serious about using robots to explore space, I think the agency may some day have a glut of robotic devices on the “Red Planet” and it won’t know what to do with them all. In an effort to tap into the “open-source” ethos as well as get kids excited about science, technology and space exploration, NASA will then allow students (thorough a secure satellite connection) to conduct their own exploration using older robots.

Impossible? No. Unlikely? Perhaps, but then again how many people would have dismissed the idea of North Dakota teenagers using a video game-like joy stick to control and drop and bombs in Afghanistan as recently as a decade ago?

Interested in other headlines from the future? Check out this old post:

Worldwide Solar Farm Construction Forces Coal Plants to Shutter

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Hey YouTwitFace, The Future Will Require Unlearning Social Media

Earlier today I had the opportunity to give a short presentation on unlearning to the Olson advertising agency in Minneapolis. During the course of my talk I mentioned how fast technology is changing and I reminded my audience that although Facebook is only 5 years old and Twitter barely 3 years of age, it is important to remember that new social media tools are being created everyday—some of which will undoubtedly require us to unlearn some of our current communications habits. Afterwards, someone mentioned that Conan O’Brien addressed this very theme during last evening’s 2009 Emmy Awards. Enjoy this short (and hilarious) look at the Year 3000.

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Jump the Curve with an XBox

I have explained before how many small to medium-sized businesses could save big money using supercomputers, now Microsoft is making it possible for innovative researchers to save thousands of dollars by using an XBox for computer simulations instead of parallel computer processors. It’s a wonderful example of “walking the escalator” by using existing, off-the-shelf technology to gain a competitive advantage.

Speaking of off-the-shelf technology, I invite you to read this inspirational article explaining how two students at MIT have rigged existing technology to take a series of photos from outer space for less than $150.

This is further proof that the future will be cheap. Unless, of course, NASA continues to decide to “piss away” $154 million on ineffective urinal technology.

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Jump the Curve Strategy #15: Mandatory Recess

A mandatory recess might not sound like a sure-fire path to prosperity, but providing employees a period of unstructured free time to pursue activities of their choosing can be very beneficial. A handful of companies have already instituted such policies. Among some of the better known companies are Google, Genentech, and 3M.

All three companies have policies that allow some of their employees to spend anywhere between 15 percent and 20 percent of their time pursuing independent projects of their own choosing. In essence the companies are giving their employees permission to play.

3M has been a proponent of this practice for the longest period of time. According to company officials, the practice dates back to the 1920s when an employee reportedly disobeyed an order to abandon a project and ended up creating Scotch masking tape--one of the most successful products of all time.
One of 3M’s better known and more recent success stories is that of the Post--t Note, which was developed by an employee who, because of 3M’s policy, was free to pursue the project.

The benefits, though, go beyond these isolated successes. 3M has an incredible history of developing new products. For years the company has publicized the fact that 50 percent of its annual revenues can be traced back to products that were developed within the past five years.

One of the reasons it has been able to regularly achieve this goal is because employees have been encouraged to innovate and have then been given the freedom to pursue new ideas. The mandatory recess policy has not only reinforced the idea that continued innovation was critical to the company’s success, it has given management the confidence to stay focused on ideas that at first might have seemed either like dead ends or were too off the wall to pursue.

Another company that has embraced a discretionary time policy is Genentech. For the past few years the biotechnology company has consistently been ranked as one of the best places to work in America. There are many reasons for this, but one is because it allows its scientists discretionary time to pursue independent projects--in some cases up to 100 percent of their time. Genentech officials credit the creation of the anticancer drug Avastin--a product with over a $1 billion in annual sales--to its “discretionary time” policy.

As I explained before, the cost of the price of sequencing genes will continue to plummet due to the creation of ever faster computers and more sophisticated gene sequencing techniques and tools. As these things occur, not only will new drug treatments become available, but scientists and researchers are more likely to find innovative solutions to create drugs that are increasingly tailored to individual users.

Finally there is Google. In many ways, it has the boldest recess policy because it applies to all of the company’s employees (3M’s and Genentech’s programs are limited to its scientific and R&D staffs). Among the programs company officials attribute to its policy are the creation of Google News Service, Orkut (its social networking site), and Gmail.

In addition to generating new innovative products, mandatory recess offers one additional benefit that is hard to quantify, but is nonetheless extremely important: It is a powerful recruiting and retention tool. There is a fierce battle to attract and retain talented workers. One of the reasons Google, Genentech, and 3M are doing as well as they are is their policies send a clear message to prospective employees: The company trusts them to pursue interesting and important projects that they believe are in the company’s best long-term interests.

By giving workers this freedom, companies accrue one additional benefit. Employees now have a way of not simply meeting expectations--they have a way of surpassing them.

Exponential Insight

If you want employees to jump the curve, you have to give them the time and space to jump. As I will continue to demonstrate throughout this website, there will be no shortage of wild ideas and strange possibilities arising due to exponential advances in technology. Consider just a few of the possibilities that the emerging science of nanotechnology might enable materials scientists to play around with. For instance, plastic, glass, and steel are already being made stronger, lighter, more flexible and, in some cases, self-cleaning. Soon self-healing materials, flexible electronics, and solar fabrics will be on the market. Some of these advances will lead to innovative new products and applications. Thinking up new ideas will require people to follow their hunches and, sometimes, make counterintuitive jumps in logic. Running such off-the-wall ideas by management could, at best, be difficult. Better those employees just be given some mandatory recess time to pursue their ideas.

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Jump the Curve Strategy #14: Stop Acting Your Age
Jump the Curve Strategy # 13: Catch a Wave
Jump the Curve Strategy #12: Think Small, Very Small
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Jump the Curve Strategy #10: Get in Touch with All of Your Sensors
Jump the Curve Strategy #9: Follow Your Hunch
Jump the Curve Strategy #8: Run the Numbers
Jump the Curve Strategy #7: Reorganize Your Data Storage Closet
Jump the Curve Strategy #6: Let the Computer Do It
Jump the Curve Strategy #5: Bet On It
Jump the Curve Strategy #4: Just “Wiki” It
Jump the Curve Strategy #3: Look to the Kindness of Strangers
Jump the Curve Strategy #2: Take a Bird’s Eye View of the World
Jump the Curve Strategy #1: Learn to Spell Zenzizenzizenzic
Introduction to Chapter Two: The Power of Zenzizenzizenzic
Welcome to the Exponential Economy: Prepare to Jump the Curve
Introduction to Jump the Curve

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Your Future Personal Assistant Is In Your Pocket

Have trouble remembering peoples names? Or perhaps you just want to learn a little more about that attractive person standing across the room. Well, soon, the smartphone in your pocket will make you a little smarter. (Whether the person across the room will find you any more attractive, well, that depends on you. Hint: Just don’t create a fake online personality much longer, you’re gonna get busted.)

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Jump the Curve with a Nice, Cool Corona

It isn’t often that a company can successfully revive a decade old television ad but that is precisely what Corona is doing with its commercial “Lagoon.”

You may recall the original commercial—which I have posted below—showing a relaxing executive sitting on the beach with a nice, cool Corona beer when his beeper begins vibrating. His way of dealing with this unwelcome disruption is to skip the device into the coral blue ocean.

What is funny is that the commercial is only 8 years old—just think of the advances modern communication technology has made in that relatively short amount of time. I have written before about the startling changes we have witnessed in the past decade (here and here) and this is just another example. Still, in 2001, it would have been difficult to imagine iPhones, SmartPhones, Facebook, text-messaging, LinkedIn, Twitter, etc.

Now, if you want to jump the curve, try to imagine what communication devices, methods and social networks might look like in the year 2017. At a minimum, I would begin by considering how advances in flexible electronics, computer algorithms and haptic technology will continue to transform our world. (It may be enough to make you want to drink!)

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Intel Jumps the Curve

In the interest of open and honest disclosure, I am investor in Intel. One of the reasons I am a long-term investor is because I like how the company constantly and relentlessly engages the future—as this recent article entitled A glimpse at Intel’s futuristic gadgets suggests.

For anyone interested in where the future may be headed, I encourage you to read the article.

A few things caught my attention in the article. First, I was attracted by this quote from the company’s chief technology officer Justin Rattner, “We believe our mission is to take risks.” It is common for executives at many large companies to say such things but Intel puts its money where its mouth is. Consider, for example, the fact that the company is working on something called a “Dispute Finder.” It is essentially a smart software program that will call “bullshit” on an article or blog posting you may be reading if it contains erroneous (or even contradictory) information. Or, last year, the company announced it was working on a shape-shifting human-computer interface. The article also suggests it is aggressively investigating emerging opportunities in the field of robotics which, as I have written about numerous times, is a very promising field.

The second thing that caught my attention was mention of a poster displayed at the conference. It read, “Your kid’s kid’s kid won’t think what we’re doing is crazy at all.” Personally, I’d love to get my hands on a copy of that poster but, regardless, it is a perfect example of developing a future bias. Intel is not simply content to focus on incrementally improving its existing products, it is actively engaging the future in an attempt to “jump the curve.”

As an investor and a fan of the future, I wish them all the best.

Interested in reading about other corporations and organizations who are jumping the curve? Check out these past articles:

Google Jumps the Curve
The CIA Jumps the Curve
BMW Jumps the Curve
Mars Jumps the Curve
IBM Thinks Small
Lockheed Martin Jumps the Curve

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The Future of Gaming

I can still recall the joy I experienced when I first played my brother in the game of Pong back in the mid-1970’s. (We played on an old black-and-white TV console in our basement.) It would have been difficult for me to imagine back then that sometime in the distant future, Pong and its video-gaming successors would ultimately be a bigger industry than all of Hollywood. Yet that is exactly what occurred in 2005 when revenues from video gaming surpassed the revenues of all the Hollywood blockbusters—combined.

I would now like to introduce you to a new “mind-control” game which will be out this fall from Mattel. I invite you to watch the six-minute CNET video below, but don’t concentrate on how crude the game’s underlying technology is today, rather imagine how much more advanced it and other “mind-control” games will become in the future.

My prediction is that just as Pong’s crude technology predicted the future success of video games; Mattel’s mind-control technology offers a similar glimpse into the future of next generation of gaming.

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The Next Innovation: AI, Nanotechnology, Robotics

The following 4-minute CNBC interview with Peter Diamandis, founder of the X Prize, lends further credence to the idea that the private sector and good old American ingenuity will lead to the next breakthrough innovation in artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology and genomics. (I have also posted a few related articles on the topic of innovation below the video.) For people who fear that innovation in America is either a “laggard” (as BusinessWeek recently suggested) or dead, I would only offer the immortal words of Mark Twain who, when he was asked to comment on his death, replied “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” The same is true of innovation in America. If anything the best is still yet to come.

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The Future is Creative

I recently finished reading the June 2009 edition of Fast Company. It is entitled “The 100 Most Creative People in Business” and I highly recommend it. If you don’t have the time but are interested in the future, I will provide links to two “must-read” profiles. The first is of Neri Oxman, a Presidential Fellow at the MIT Media Lab. I especially loved this quote of hers: “I believe that in 50 years buildings will be like biological tissues.”

The second profile is of Dr. Anthony Atala, Director of the Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine, and a world leader in growing human tissues. I have always been a strong advocate of “thinking like a child,’ and I enjoyed this quote of Atala’s: “It was naive of me. But being naive helped me not accept the current dogma that tissue can’t grow outside the body.”

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The Future is Closer Than You Think

As a professional futurist my job is not to predict the future. Instead, I offer my clients a range of possibilities about what might happen in the future. As a starting point for these “possibilities, I always begin with those trends that are already here. (As I have said before ”the future is here, it is just not yet evenly distributed.”

To this end, I’d like to share two emerging trends in the personal transportation market that I’m confident will grow in the coming years. The first is the development of solar fabrics which will soon be used by bikers and cyclists to recharge and power their electronic devices.

The second and more exciting trend is the creation of air-powered motorcycles. To understand the latter’s potential, especially in countries such as India and China where smog is a serious problem and people have limited disposable income for fuel, I invite you to watch this short 1.5 minute video:

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In Praise of Absurd ideas

As regular readers know, I am a big fan of ”the power of play”—the idea that we need to reengage our inner-child if we truly want to innovate our way into the future. To this end, I’d invite you to read this article by Allison Arieff entitled ”Searching for Value in Ludicrous Ideas.”

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Unlearn Your Mindset

Until yesterday, I had no idea who Ellen Langer was. Now, I find myself wanting to purchase her forthcoming book, CounterClockwise, along with some of her other books, including Mindfulness and The Power of Mindful Learning.

My fascination began when I stumbled across this article in Newsweek entitled ”Just Say No to Aging,” which profiles her new book. Two items, in particular, caught my attention. First, a group of men were asked to imagine that it was 20 years earlier. This, however, was no ordinary exercise. The men were actually taken to isolated retro-fitted New England hotel and instructed to act as though they were two decades younger. (Party like it’s 1989!)

Langer’s findings were amazing. After just one week the men in the experimental group had more joint flexibility, increased dexerity and less arthritis in their hands. In other words, just by thinking they were younger they felt younger!

This is not an isolated example. According to this article, Langer conducted a similar experiment with hotel chambermaids. The maids were separated into two groups. Both groups did the exact same work only one group believed they were getting exercise with their work while the other group didn’t. The group that thought they were exercising not only lost more weight, they also experienced a drop in blood pressure.

Both studies strongly suggest that people need only “unlearn” their mindset in order to experience real changes in their health. Or, as I wrote in my book, Jump the Curve, people need to ”stop acting their age.”

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Unlearning Disease
Does the Pharmaceutical Industry Need to Unlearn?
Is the Health Care Industry prepared to Unlearn?
Examples of Unexponential Thinking

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Jump the Curve Strategy #14: Stop Acting Your Age

Many adults tend to think of play as an indulgence or, worse, a frivolous waste of time. I don’t know where this idea came from or when it first began creeping into popular culture, but to take advantage of the exponential economy, exponential executives must disabuse themselves of this notion.

Play has consistently been found to reduce stress, increase energy levels, brighten people’s outlook, increase optimism, and foster creativity. All are worthy goals and can help individuals do their jobs better, so the question is: Why don’t we play more?

I don’t know the answer to that question, but play has a rich and productive history and is the basis for much of our modern economy. Long before Alexander Graham Bell uttered his famous words, “Mr. Watson--come here--I want to see you,” to his assistant, he began his journey into the science of sound as a child by playing in the fields behind his family’s farm where he honed his extraordinary sense of hearing by trying to listen to wheat grow. That’s right, Bell would sit in the field and literally try to hear what the crop sounded like as it was growing over the summer.

One might only imagine what synaptic connections were being strengthened during this exercise, but Bell later followed up his curiosity about sound by pressing his lips up against the forehead of his mother, who was almost totally deaf, to make her bones resonate to his voice. In so doing, he found he could communicate with her. He was also now one step closer to imagining the new possibilities that carrying sound might create.

No less an exponential thinker than Albert Einstein also engaged in childlike thinking. The general theory of relatively, which has been hailed as the most important discovery of the twentieth century, came about in part because Einstein conducted a thought experiment and wondered what it would be like to ride a train through time. Few of us are as creative or brilliant as Alexander Graham Bell or Albert Einstein, but we should all heed Einstein’s words about never ceasing “to stand like curious children” before the world into which we were born.

Picking up on this theme, near the end of World War II, Vannevar Bush, the science advisor to President Harry Truman, wrote a report called “Science: The Endless Frontier.” The document is remarkable for a number of reasons, not the least of which is because in it Bush drew attention to the importance of supporting the “free play of intellects.” He stressed that scientists and researchers must be allowed to work “on subjects of their own choosing, in a manner dictated by their curiosity for exploration.”

Why did he propose this? It most certainly wasn’t born out of any sense of indulgence or luxury. At the time, America was still battling Japan in the Pacific, and the outcome of World War II remained unknown.

Rather it was because Bush knew that the country would need additional breakthrough ideas in both warfare--in the event the atomic bomb didn’t work (which at the time was a very real possibility)--and economics if America wanted to retain its new standing in the global economy. In short, Bush’s memo to the president was not the product of an idealistic theorist; but rather that of hard-headed realist. Scientific and intellectual “play” were absolutely critical to the United States long-term prosperity and survival.

The message is even important today. Executives and managers who feel the speed and pace of globalization dictate that they, their employees, and their companies “play” less are drawing absolutely the wrong conclusion. Play is an essential life skill.

Why are humans among the few animals that play? It has been theorized by some that play is an integral form of learning. It allows people to practice skills they might need later down the line. But play goes beyond such life skills. When we play we gain practice manipulating things and controlling the outcome of events. We also devise new solutions for old problems and create new endings for our experiences.

Exponential Insight

Alan Kay once said, “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” One way to jump the curve and begin inventing new things is to return to your childhood roots and begin juggling new things around in your mind, listening for new sounds in odd places, and engaging in some old-fashioned free play. You will be surprised at the connections you make.

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Jump the Curve Strategy #9: Follow Your Hunch
Jump the Curve Strategy #8: Run the Numbers
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Jump the Curve Strategy #6: Let the Computer Do It
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Introduction to Chapter 5: The Power of Play

Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.
--Albert Einstein

Sit down before fact as a little child, be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abyss nature leads, or you shall learn nothing.--Thomas Huxley

A couple of years ago, just after turning forty, my wife asked me what I would like for Christmas. Normally I stumble over such questions, but this year I knew exactly what I wanted: juggling balls.

“Like the kind you might see a little kid playing with?” she asked.

“Exactly,” I responded with all the enthusiasm of five-year-old sitting on Santa’s lap

“Okay,” she replied, shrugging her shoulders. I think she was just relieved that while my midlife crisis was decidedly juvenile in nature, at least it was an inexpensive crisis--no expensive convertible sports car or fancy big-screen plasma TV.

“Don’t you want to know why I want juggling balls?” I inquired.

She could see from the twinkle in my eye that I was dying to tell her, so to humor me she replied, “Why?”

“Because I just read an article that said that 95 percent of everything we have learned about the human brain we have learned in the just the past twenty years. Isn’t that extraordinary?”

Impatiently, she said, “I thought you were going to tell me why you wanted juggling balls for Christmas.”

“I was,” I replied, undaunted. “Beginning jugglers can increase the volume of their grey matter by more than 3 percent according to a study I just read.”

Continuing on in the expectation that this might not sufficiently impress her, I gushed, “Other studies have suggested that juggling may actually increase creativity by causing your brain neurons to fire in new ways.”

Figuring my head could probably use a little retooling, she granted me my Christmas wish, and for the better part of Christmas Eve I recused myself from my in-laws and practiced juggling.

The task started easily enough as I followed the directions, which told me to practice with just one ball until I had mastered tossing it in a perfect arc from one hand to the other. Having accomplished that within a minute, I next added a second ball to my repertoire, and not long afterward I was tossing two balls back and forth with the grace of an acrobat.

I was now ready to juggle, or so I thought. The task of adding the third ball was far more difficult than I had imagined. I finally had to give up Christmas Eve--actually it was 1:30 A.M. Christmas morning when my wife pleaded with me to come to bed because she knew our children would be waking in a few hours to see what Santa had delivered.

Neuroscientists have since offered me an explanation for my compulsive behavior that evening as well as the following day when I spent about as much time practicing my juggling as I did playing with my children. Some scientists speculate that when we attempt to learn something new, certain chemicals are released as our brain tries to establish new neural pathways. In the right doses, these chemicals can create a pleasurable sensation. These good feelings create a kind of positive feedback loop. (They also helped me persist in the face of hundreds of dropped balls.)

To this day, I can still recall the satisfaction I felt upon finally juggling the three balls with some consistency. Alas, almost as quickly as my own kids grew bored with their gifts, I, too, grew bored with juggling. I can and still do juggle on occasion, but it no longer provides that early feeling of euphoria. Part of the reason is that the neural pathways necessary to perform the task have now been wired, and there is no need for any chemicals to be released.

The point of this story is that the feeling of euphoria that accompanied my learning something new is analogous to what a young child feels on an almost daily basis as he or she is first experiencing and learning about the new world. Children, it has been estimated, begin their life with approximately 1 quadrillion synaptic connections, but as they adjust to their environment--and learn what is and isn’t useful, practical, and important—they lose up to 20 billion synaptic connections a day.

The good news is that this neural plasticity does not just disappear in adults. It can be revived and reactivated, but it requires mental exercise--such as I was doing when I was learning to juggle. Therefore, this chapter is entitled the “The Power of Play,” and it is all about revitalizing the connections that were so necessary for learning as young children because life in the exponential economy will require an extraordinary amount of new learning.

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The Nano Song: A Quick Primer on Nanotechnology

In 2003 I wrote the best-selling book, The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. The book was intended to be a layperson’s guide to an often intimidating and complex subject—nanotechnology. The fine folks at Nanomonster have now done me one better and produced a short, simply 3-minute video that even a kindergartner can understand. Enjoy!

The Nano Song from nanomonster on Vimeo.

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Move Over George Jettson. Here’s My Flying Car!

Had you been fortunate enough to be at Kitty Hawk on December 17, 1903 and witnessed the Wright Brother’s first ever flight you may been a little underwhelmed. That’s because the flight only lasted 12 seconds and traveled 120 feet. With this comparison in mind, I now invite you to watch (below) the maiden flight of Terrafugia’s “flying car.” It may not look like much today, but if you “jump the curve” and envision future cars that are made of lighter, stronger materials and are loaded with intelligent software and embued with networks of sensors, it is easy to imagine how the technology will soon get much better.

Now, I don’t expect to be taking off from my driveway anytime soon but, within a decade, I believe I’ll be able to drive to, say, a regional airport and take-off and fly to another regional airport that is 100-200 miles away, and then land and drive to my final destination.

One implication is that this technology could change certain people’s living habits and work patterns.

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Dude, Where’s My Flying Car?

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The Shape-Shifting Phone of the Future

I recently came across this article discussing Intel’s plans for a phone that may within 3-5 years change shapes according to the users needs. It comes with an accompanying video (which is posted below) but rather than watch that video first (it is a little technical), I encourage you to watch this from Nokia first. It is more creative and will give you a better understanding of the potential of shape-shifting phones of the future:

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Is the Future Mundane?

(Hat tip to Michael Anissimov at Acclerating Future for this photo.)

Looking for other funny looks at the future? Check out these past posts:

Let’s Party Like It’s 1997
The Future Has Arrived: A Classic Video
Dude, Where’s My Flying Car?

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Wrap Your Brain Around This Future iPhone

A Canadian movie firm has put together a short 50-second movie clip spoofing the future of “iPhone Everything” by suggesting it will have a neural interface and be able to control things by thought. It is a clever piece, but I recommend that you also watch the video directly below the first YouTube clip—making phone calls by thought alone is no joke. Seriously. My advice: People often have a way of under-anticipating the future, don’t be one of those people.

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Google’s Big Idea

One way to embrace the future is to allow your employees the freedom to pursue big, hairy audacious—and sometimes crazy—ideas. 3M has been doing this for years and, more recently, Google has taken up the mantle. More specifically, the two companies allows many of its engineers and employees to spend anywhere between 20-50% of their time during on ideas outside their official areas of responsibility.

Recently I stumbled upon this article describing a Google patent for creating a massive floating data center that could use wave power to power the center and ocean water to help keep the many computers cool. It is an idea that is obviously years away from reality, but I still applaud the people who came up with the idea—and Google for giving them the freedom to pursue the idea.

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The Power Suit of the Future

The “power” tie is so 1990’s. What we need to bring us into the 21st century is a “power” suit. Thanks to the fine folks at Georgia Tech we now may just be a few years away from the development of a fabric that can harvest biomechanical energy.

Every time you move an arm or a leg or even lift a finger you are releasing energy. Researchers at Georgia Tech are now experimenting with how to weave nanowires directly into flexible fabrics which could then convert the energy you release and channel it back to more productive uses—such as powering your cellphone or iPod.

Longer term it is even feasible that the technology could be used to power nanoscale devices that stream through your body looking for cancer cells. The obvious advantage of this technology is that it reduces and, quite possibly, eliminates the need for batteries.

P.S. To all of the attendees of my keynote presentation at the First Annual Technology Conference in Atlanta this past Tuesday, here are links to the two articles on the future of Atlanta and Georgia Tech that I promised. Also, below is the video of a technology that may help the region better recycle waste water:

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Downloadable Lighters Offer a Key to the Future

What can downloaded lighters tell us about the future? Perhaps a little more than you might expect.

Related Posts:

Jump the Curve: February 6, 2009
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Jump the Curve: January 9, 2009

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The Future of Paper

Want to know why future paper might be colored yellow and why we may not have to cut down as many trees or pay obscene prices for ink toner? Check out this informative 3 minute video from ZDNet:

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Paper Industry Needs to Turn a New Page

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The Future of Music is Interchangeable

To understand the future of music, it helps to understand the role material sciences plays in the sound of music:

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Jump the Curve to Roof Top Wind Turbines

In my book, Jump the Curve, one of the 50 strategies I suggest for “jumping the curve” and embracing the future is to award prizes—in an attempt to spur creativity. In honor of its 10th anniversary this is exactly what Google is doing. One of the finalists for the $10 million prizes is the “jelly fish” roof-top wind turbine. To read about the technology, I recommend this article. However, this YouTube video is even more interesting:

Related Posts by America’s leading energy futurist, Jack Uldrich:

Green Investing: A Guide to Making Money Through Environmentally-Friendly Stocks
New Wind Company Seeks to Jump the Curve

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Jump the Curve and Power Your Home in New Ways

From solar-powered refrigerators to magnetically levitated wind turbines, we could soon be powering our homes and appliances in fundamentally different ways. For this first idea, I recommend this article about a young woman who has developed a solar-power refrigerator and for the second idea, I invite you to watch this Jay Leno video:

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Picture the Future in 3-D

The Wall Street Journal has an article in today’s paper discussing how the NFL is experimenting with 3-D technology to bring football games to movie theaters. I don’t think the idea will take off because of advances in flexible electronics. View the picture to the right—it is a designer’s conception of a pair of next-generation glasses based on flexible electronics. Why would you go to a theater and pay $20 bucks when you still soon be able to watch in 3-D in the comfort of your home?

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Yes Wii Can!

I am not the fastest learner, but I like to think that eventually I catch on how to do things. This is especially true for physical activities such as perfecting my basketball shot or golf swing. According to this article, researchers at Rice University will now be studying how students (as well as older learners) can use Wii, the video game, to facilitate learning. Essentially, by detecting early on where the glitch in your swing or stroke is, the device can show you correct way to do it and thus help you learn at an improved rate.

The technology may not substantially improve the world, but it should make a lot of kids—as well as some of us older duffers—better athletes.

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Holograms: Coming to a Home Near You

On election night, Wolf Blitzer interviewed a reporter, Jessica Yellin, in a 3-D, holographic form. It was a little cheesy and, truth-be-told, it didn’t offer the viewer anything new. I wouldn’t dismiss holographic technology, however. As this article suggests, it could be in our homes by 2018 and, before that, it will likely find applications far more practical than Wolf Blitzer in the form of education, video gaming, medicine and entertainment.

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The Zoo of the Future

In my book, Jump the Curve, the final chapter is dedicated to the idea of “doing the impossible.” In short, it is my contention that unless you internalize the notion of accelerating change you will dismiss as “impossible” many things that will be imminently possible tomorrow due to the exponential nature of technological progress.

A wonderful case in point is this fascinating article from today’s New York Times claiming that it might soon be possible to regenerate a Wooly Mammoth for $10 million because DNA sequencing technology is continually getting more inexpensive.

Regardless of what one may think of the moral and ethical wisdom of recreating Wooly Mammoths, it is imprudent to dismiss the idea as impossible. Yet this is precisely what Rudolph Jaenisch, a biologist at the Whitehead Institute, has done by proclaiming the idea: “a wishful-thinking experiment with no realistic chance for success.”

To my mind this quote is eerily similar to that of another expert, Lord Kelvin, who famously announced in 1899 that “Heavier than air machines are impossible.” Of course, as we all now know, just four years later the Wright Brothers proved him wrong.

With this in mind, is it possible that in 2012 the New York City Zoo might have a new addition to its line-up—such as the once extinct Wooly Mammoth? Don’t be too quick to dismiss the idea. (It’s too bad that Michael Crichton, author of Jurassic Park, didn’t live to see this day. But, as I think he knew, yesterday’s science fiction often has a way of becoming tomorrow’s science fact.)

Interested in other some farfetched articles by America’s most provocative futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these past posts:

10 Reasons We Will to 1000
What’s Impossible?
The Future of Reading

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A Tale of Two Videos

Last week, I showed you two photos which demonstrated how far mobile telecommunications had progressed in the past 17 years. I would now like to show you two videos that portend how far video and haptic technology will likely come in the next few years.

The first video comes is Stanford University and it is clear that you will soon be able to easily embed video and photos directly into your own video or, alternatively, on to any flat surface. The implications for the advertising industry alone are staggering.

The second video is even cooler and it offers compelling visual evidence that certain aspects of the “Minority Report” are no longer science fiction, they are science fact. Education and video gaming will never be the same when this technology becomes affordable.

g-speak overview 1828121108 from john underkoffler on Vimeo.

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The Power of Creative Play

If you want a handful of helpful suggestions on how to “jump the curve” by engaging in the power of play, I strongly encourage you to watch this outstanding 27-minute presentation by Tim Brown. It is chalk-full of examples of how to help make people more creative. Key concepts include: focusing on quantity (not quality); building/playing with things with your hands; and engaging in role-playing.

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What Size Are Raindrops in Space?

One strategy for “jumping the curve” is to engage your inner-child and begin asking silly questions again—much as you may have when you were a young child. To this end, two NASA engineers recently wondered what would happen if they popped a waterballoon in space. Time will tell whether this question yields any interesting or practical scientific results, but in the meantime they have produced a pretty cool video. Enjoy ...

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A Tale of Two Photos

Sometimes it is hard to forget how much change we have experienced in the recent past. To better help illustrate the point, I’d like to show you two photos. The top photo is from the 1991 hit movie, Pretty Woman. To demonstrate that Richard Gere’s character was a super successful businessman they showed him using a then state-of-the-art technology which was beyond the realm of the average person: the cellphone.

Fast forward to 2008. On the cover of this past Friday’s Wall Street Journal was a photo of an unemployment line in Spain. What was fascinating was that three of the people standing in line were using their cellphones. (Note: The photo to the right is not the photo that was published in the paper.)

My point is this: Technological progress has a way of taking yesterday’s elitist and expensive technology and converting it into a commodity-like necessity for the next generation.

In the next ten years what expensive technologies do you think will become inexpensive? Some of my predictions include: flexible solar cells; rapid prototype manufacturing machines, “Kindle"-like electronic books, and medical diagnostic technology.

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Boo! You Can Only Jump the Curve So Far

As readers of this blog know, I’m a huge fan of exponential growth. In fact, it is the underlying premise behind the notion of “jumping the curve.” As I point out in my book, however, it is important to understand that exponential growth has its limits. To this end, and because it is Halloween today, I’d like to consider the case of vampires.

Distressingly, a large segment of the American public still believes in vampires. Luckily, vampires existence can be quickly disproved by exponential growth. Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that the world’s first vampire came into existence on January 1, 2004 and it bit one victim on February 1, 2004. If this scenario continued—such that the two vampires then bit two more victims each full moon—by March of 2008 all of the world’s 6 billion-plus residents would be vampires. They would now need to either begin sucking the blood of other animals or begin exploring space in search of new victims.

If you don’t believe me, do the math. Happy Halloween!

Interested in another interesting example of exponential growth? Check out this old article:

Do You Believe in Tooth Fairies?

The Power of Zenzizenzizenzic

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The Future of Education is Converging All Around Us

One of the biggest and most exciting trends in technology is that of “convergence”—or how different technologies will combined with one another to create entirely new devices. These devices, in turn, will go on to change human behavior in unique and unexpected ways.

Convergence, as a trend, is nothing new. The printing press did not materialize out of thin air. First, paper, and then ink, and ultimately moveable type had to be created before Gutenberg could create his historic device. The radio, television, computer and Internet are also the result of a convergence of various technologies.

To this end, I recently came across three articles on three different technologies which, when they converge, could change everything from how we educate and entertain ourselves to how key aspects of our economy operate.

The first is virtual reality technology. This insightful article from TechCrunch discusses the new “RealityV experience” developed by Intelligence Gaming. It is part virtual reality and part video and it is now being used by the Army to help soldiers train for real-world situations—such as dealing with a hostile crowd in a foreign country.

The video below provides an excellent overview of the technology:

The second article reviews the extraordinary advances being made in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Amazingly, in a recent contest, in 25% of the cases human judges thought they were communicating with a person when in fact they were conversing with a computer! This technology, of course, is only going to improve and as it does we should expect computers—as well as robots and avatars (in virtual reality settings)—to play a more active role in our lives.

Finally, there was this article discussing how the IEEE is now developing standards for “body area networks.” One promising application of this technology is to create interactive billboards. In essence, the billboard will know when you are in its presence and it will deliver a tailored message directly to you.

This is both exciting and a little creepy, but I am more interested in how this interactive technology will converge with virtual reality and AI. When it does I can easily envision virtual reality education pods which can helping students learn in new subjects and topics in a more exciting and engaging manner. I can also envision hyper-active, 3-D video games which respond to our every move. I can also envision homes, schools and retails outlets needing to be fundamentally redesigned in order to best utilize the convergence of these three technologies—virtual reality, AI and body networks.

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Sleep on It

I speak all over the world on the topic of innovation to businesses, trade associations, NGO’s and governmental organizations, and I have addressed this topic numerous times in this blog (see below). There are a myriad of strategies and tools employers can use to spark innovation, however, there is one simple thing they can do today to help get their workers’ creative juices flowing: They can let them take a nap!

The idea of allowing an employee to take a snooze on the company’s dime undoubtedly sounds heretical to many managers and executives but if you want to become an ”Exponential Executive,” I’d encourage you to follow the lead of companies such as Google, Cisco Systems and Procter & Gamble. They are now installing ”Energy Pods” (see the above photo) and encouraging employees to take 15-30 minute naps during the day.

The logic is simple: sleep can aid the brain in processing business problems and can lead to new insights. Still not convinced? My advice: sleep on it.

Interested in other innovative ideas from Jack Uldrich? Check out these past articles:

Develop a Future Bias
What’s Impossible?
Think 10X, Not 10%
Unlearn Your Mind-Set
The Power of Zenzizenzizenzic
Cultivate a Beginner’s Mind
Want to Spur Innovation? Award a Prize

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Everything You Think You Know About Video Games May Be Wrong

Think that video games lead to violence or anti-social behavior? Or that only male teenagers play video games? Or perhaps you are of the opinion that video games have no educational value . Well, think again and prepare yourself to unlearn. I strongly encourage you to read this post which highlights many of the recent findings of Henry Jenkins, the director of comparative studies at MIT.

I especially like the quote from James Gee who describes video gamers as “active problem solvers who do not see mistakes as errors, but as opportunities for improvement.” Of all the things that we must “unlearn,” one of the greatest is that mistakes are failures. Often they aren’t, instead they are a necessary and vital step down the path toward progress.

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The Future of Telecommunications in Six Videos

On Tuesday, I am traveling to Florida to give a speech on the future of the telecommunications industry. One of the bigger (and, to be honest, not terribly new) trends in the field is the continued growth of video. In the spirit of this trend, I’d like to offer you six different videos which, each in its own unique way, offers a glimpse into the future of the telecommunications industry. The first three are very cool, and the next three are more technical but still provide some very good information.

The first clip from Nokia offers an idea of what future mobile devices might look like:

The second offers an idea of how holographic information might become more pervasive:

The third video reviews how advances in algorithms and nerotechnology could lead to “voiceless” communication:

The next three clips review how terahertz transmissions, sensors and RFID technology could lead to some cool new applications for future mobile devices:

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The Future is Coming to a (Holograph) Screen Near You!

In the 2001 movie, The Minority Report (which supposedly took place in the year 2050), one of the cooler scenes had Tom Cruise’s character interacting in real-time with a holograph. Well, that future is now a lot closer than the year 2050. I invite you to watch this short video:

As this technology continues to improve, it will likely impact everything from how we communicate and interact with advertisements to how we teach our children and entertain ourselves.

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Nanotechnology & the Future of the Cellphone

If a picture is worth a thousand words, then a video is worth at least 10,000 words. Check out this cool vision of the cellphone brought to you compliments of Nokia—and nanotechnology:

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DARPA Jumps the Curve

The Defense Advanced Research Program Agency (DARPA) is now trying to create aircraft that will stay aloft for as long as five years. According to the manager of the program, Daniel Newman, “We want to completely change the paradigm of how we think about aircraft.”

It is a wonderful example of jumping the curve. If one understands the advances occurring in fields such as nanotechnology and hydrogen fuel cells, it is easy to envision how we might soon have aircraft which can stay afloat for five years at a time. (One immediate application is that the U.S. military might be able to patrol areas in Afghanistan easily and relatively inexpensively.)

Related posts by Jack Uldrich

The Future of the Airline Industry

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