Strategies for innovating into the future:
Global futurist and author Jack Uldrich offers essential strategic information on nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, RFID and many other future technologies to help you prosper as exponential trends converge at this unique moment in history.
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Chapter 5: The Spice of Life--Diversity
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Chapter 5: The Spice of Life--Diversity
Play Off Your Neighbors Strengths
Life on the African savanna can be a dangerous place, especially if you’re an animal. Predators that possess astonishing strength, razor-sharp teeth and claws, and cunning camouflage lurk everywhere and are often just waiting to make some poor, less unfortunate creature on the food chain their next meal without the slightest compunction.
One strategy for surviving in this perilous environment is to be at least one step speedier than your slowest colleague. It is a fitting analogy for today’s business environment and Juan Enriquez, in his book As the Future Catches You, summarized this line of thinking thusly: “Every morning a gazelle wakes and thinks, ‘To stay alive, I have to run faster than the fastest lion.’”
It’s a marvelous strategy provided you are fleet of foot. If not, the strategy is nothing more than a temporary salve for a day or two because as Enriquez adds, “Just over the hill, a lion has realized, ‘I have to run faster than the slowest gazelle, or I’ll go hungry.’”
Fortunately there is a better way of surviving on the African plains, and it offers two distinct advantages over this survival-of-the-fittest strategy. Moreover, it is instructive for businesses and organizations looking to remain competitive in tomorrow’s exponential economy.
What is the strategy? Playing off your neighbors’ strength. Many animals survive on the savanna by working in partnership with other animals. One of the better-known examples is the unusual affiliation among wildebeests, zebras, and ostriches.
Alone each species is vulnerable. Together, though, this unlikely triumvirate forms an impressive survival team. Wildebeests have very good hearing but poor eyesight and a distressingly poor sense of smell. Zebras, on the other hand, only have modest hearing but are blessed with very keen sniffers, while ostriches possess excellent eyesight. By relying on the relative strengths of the other animals, the trio can often detect predators well in advance and take the necessary precautions to keep the threat at bay.
The same tactic can be employed in today’s business environment. The convergence of sensors and information technology within the health-care arena is causing leading medical providers to look to semiconductor companies as new partners.
On a different scale, some companies are even trying to form in-house teams that can do a better job of spotting potential dangers. For instance, Eli Lilly, the large drug manufacturer, now relies on groups of “semi-experts” to help it determine which drug candidates should be allowed to proceed to Phase III clinical trials. (The decision is not inconsequential because of the time, money, and resources at stake.)
To use the animal analogy, imagine marketing executives as having good hearing for helping determine which drugs will do best in the commercial marketplace, molecular biologists as having the best eyesight for determining which drug molecules might be most effective, and regulatory and legal specialists as having the better sense of smell in selecting the drugs FDA regulators might be willing to accept.
Of course, diversity isn’t only useful in warning of lurking dangers; it is also helpful in avoiding traps in the first place. The classic example, which was so adroitly profiled in the classic book Groupthink by Irving Janis, is the Bay of Pigs fiasco--the Kennedy administration’s ill-advised plan to send a group of Cuban exiles into a swampy bay in Cuba in the hopes of sparking a popular uprising against Fidel Castro’s communist regime.
After the humiliating defeat, President Kennedy demanded his administration study the failure of the invasion. What he learned is that he and his staff--many of whom had been schooled at the country’s top universities--were a cohesive group but they all tended to think too much alike. In short, his staff was not diverse enough.
Had Kennedy and his advisors sought the advice of other military experts, Cuban exiles, and other interested and knowledgeable parties outside of their immediate circle, the problem might have been avoided. (Luckily Kennedy learned his lesson and successfully applied many of the findings toward the peaceful resolution of the Cuban missile crisis just a year later.)
The business world is chock full of examples of businesses tapping into the power of diversity. Stephanie Capparell, in her book The Real Pepsi Challenge, documents how as early as the mid-1940s Pepsi had hired African-Americans to figure out how to market Pepsi to “the Negro market,” and the company determined that its continued commitment to diversity was responsible for attributing one full percentage point of its 7.4 percent revenue growth--or $250 million--to new products inspired by diversity.
Similarly Ford Motor Company credits one of its more notable successes of the past few decades to diversity. Many of the unique features of the minivan were not the work of clever and empathetic engineers but rather were the product of multiple minds working together to devise a product that would serve different peoples needs. For instance, disabled workers recommended sliding doors, mothers looking for some help with storing their children’s drinks asked for cup holders, and the elderly needed some assistance in discerning when obstacles might be behind them and requested a sensor that beeped.
Scores of other companies have also moved in a big way to embrace diversity. IBM, Google, and Microsoft among others are moving abroad and are doing so not only to be closer to their markets and have access to inexpensive and talented labor but also because Indians, Chinese, Europeans, and Africans all have different sets of “senses,” and they can see, hear, or smell both threats and opportunities that are not always obvious to others.
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Diversity: The Spice of Life
There is very little difference between one man and another; but what little there is, is very important. This distinction seems to me to go to the root of the matter. --William James, The Will to Believe
It has been said that diversity is the spice of life. But diversity is more than just a spice, it is actually a necessary and vital ingredient of life. Consider a very close and intimate example: you.
Have you ever wondered how it is that you got to where you are? I am not speaking here of the mystery of life (although in keeping with the theme of this website I feel compelled to mention that the cell division that occurs almost from the moment you are conceived is but another example of exponential growth); rather, I am referring to your place in society.
That we even have a society to be members of is an enthralling proposition, and while I am sure a few people have pondered such a question in a moment of quiet reflection or perhaps in some long forgotten freshmen philosophy course, it is safe to say that most people have chosen not to make answering this question the central theme of their lives. Fewer still have decided to write a book about it.
To our good fortune, Jared Diamond did explore this very question in his Pulitzer Prize--winning book Guns, Germs, and Steel. The work seeks to answer the question of why different societies developed in different ways and progressed at different rates. Or as Diamond so eloquently phrases the question: Why is it that Africa, where protohumans evolved for the longest period of time, didn’t come to develop the tools that would have permitted it to conquer Europe rather than vice versa?
As the book’s title implies, the answer is not altogether simple. One of the principal and necessary ingredients behind Western civilizations’ explosive growth from a small band of nomadic hunter and gatherers 10,000 years ago to today’s hyperconnected, supersized international economy where billions of dollars pulsate electronically in the blink of an eye and hundreds of ships three times the size of a football field roam the high seas at any given moment is diversity.
More specifically, a diversity of weather, terrain, climate, plants, and animals lie at the heart of modern society’s exponential advancement. As Diamond explains, it is not just a quirk of fate that civilization began in the Fertile Crescent. A confluence of diversity conspired to spark modern civilization. To begin, the region was blessed with a wealth of altitudes and topographies. This gave rise to rivers, deserts, and flood plains, which, when combined with differing weather patterns in the region, produced a bewildering array of plants. In fact, ten millennia ago thirty-two of the world’s fifty-six different wild grasses could be found in the Fertile Crescent.
These plants then cross-pollinated with one another and gave rise to an even wider assortment of plants. This potpourri of plants attracted an amazing collection of animals, including four species of big mammals--the goat, sheep, pig, and cow--that could be easily domesticated.
Ingenious hunter-gatherers who had already begun cultivating some of the perennial plants to supplement their hunting diet discerned a variety of uses for these animals. Not only did they use them for food and clothing, they also recognized that these beasts of burden could be put to work to provide traction and transportation for more difficult jobs, and they could be used to further exploit the land by providing fertilizer.
And it was this use of both plants and animals that gave humans their first big break because the abundance of calories and proteins that these crops and animals provided allowed even more hunter-gatherers to put down their weapons and forego their nomadic ways and instead, in confidence, pick up a hoe and begin farming.
Over time, increasing numbers of hunter-gatherers did the same, and soon there were enough people to require some organization. I am skipping a few steps here, but among the first things that needed to be done was that leaders had to emerge to delegate the tasks. Next bureaucrats were appointed to oversee operations, and soon after armies were created to protect the society’s existing land as well as advance its search for more.
This combination of leaders, bureaucrats, soldiers, and farmers allowed for the creation of an even greater diversity of professions--civil engineers, builders, educators, scientists, financiers, medical specialists, and philosophers--to flourish over time. And these specialists begat more advances as each group contributed to the growing strength of the collective. The moral of the story is that while diversity does beget more diversity, the real advances--and the best way to jump the curve--is to figure out how to exploit that diversity.
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The Future Needs More “Zero Gravity” Thinkers
In the New York Times a while back there was an interesting commentary entitled ”Innovative Minds Don’t Think Alike.” It is hardly a revolutionary idea but the author makes a good case that any number of businesses can benefit from an outsider’s perspective.
I would take this argument a step further and argue that businesses should also actively seek out cross-disciplinary thinkers—generalists who are well-versed in a variety of different fields. I say this because history has proven that innovation only rarely comes from those experts who know “more and more about less and less.”
More often, the really big breakthroughs come from those thinkers who are able to make connections between different discoveries. As James Burke reminds us in his excellent book, Connections, Alexander Graham Bell was not an expert in either electricity or magnetism, but he knew enough to combine the work of Leon Scott, Michael Faraday and H.C. Oersted to invent the telephone.
In this same way, I don’t believe that the next great breakthroughs will result from straight scientific discoveries in nanotechnology, material science, computers, robotics or brain-scanning technology. Instead, they will come from the convergence of these different forces by individuals who are able to make unique connections. Therefore, in order to “jump the curve” and stay ahead of these breakthroughs (or, better yet, have your company make the breakthroughs) it will help to bring in not just “zero-gravity” thinkers but some cross-disciplinary thinkers as well.
Related Posts
Set Discontinuous Goals
Don’t Incrementalize Yourself Into the Future
Dangerous Curves Ahead
Exponential Evolution
A Useful Analogy for Thinking About the Future
Think 10X, Not 10%
Einstein, Intel and All the Rice in China
Embracing Change
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IBM Thinks Small
Since writing my first book on nanotechnology, ”The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business,” I have followed the emerging field of nanotechnology quite closely. As I have often written on these pages, IBM is one of the most impressive players in the field. And, if anything, the pace of the company’s activity in the field has only accelerated in recent years.
To this end, yesterday “Big Blue” announced it was creating a new nanotechnology center in Egypt and today it announced a similar center in Bulgaria. Now, the creation of such centers may not appear like much but I’d argue that IBM is doing itself an immense favor by exposing itself to foreign scientists who might view things from a different perspective.
Like every other field, nanotechnology can fall prey to “groupthink.” One strategy for defeating conventional thinking is to employ scientists from different areas—which is precisely what IBM is doing. It is just one reason why I believe IBM will continue to “jump the curve.”
Related posts on nanotechnology by Jack Uldrich
15 Ways Nanotechnology is Already Making Your Life Better
Nanotechnology & The Future of the Cellphone
Nanotechnology and the Changing Face of the Electric Utility Industry
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Lockheed Martin Jumps the Curve
Last month, I traveled to Dallas to give a keynote presentation to Lockheed Martin on environmental issues. At the time, I encouraged company officials to begin exploring opportunities in the “clean tech” area in an effort to diversify its business away from the defense/aerospace business. Although I’m sure my recommendation had nothing to do with the decision, I’m was glad to see that Lockheed Martin is now busy designing a new Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion device which could provide America with a vast supply of cheap, clean and sustainable energy. It could even make desalination technology more a viable technology by addressing the high energy cost part of the equation.
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The Future of Telecommunications in Six Videos
On Tuesday, I am traveling to Florida to give a speech on the future of the telecommunications industry. One of the bigger (and, to be honest, not terribly new) trends in the field is the continued growth of video. In the spirit of this trend, I’d like to offer you six different videos which, each in its own unique way, offers a glimpse into the future of the telecommunications industry. The first three are very cool, and the next three are more technical but still provide some very good information.
The first clip from Nokia offers an idea of what future mobile devices might look like:
The second offers an idea of how holographic information might become more pervasive:
The third video reviews how advances in algorithms and nerotechnology could lead to “voiceless” communication:
The next three clips review how terahertz transmissions, sensors and RFID technology could lead to some cool new applications for future mobile devices:
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BMW Jumps the Curve
The German automaker BMW, in introducing its new “Light Visionary Model” prototype—which it dubs GINA (Geometry and Functions “N” Adaptions")—writes this: ”The key to affecting the development of tomorrow’s mobility lies in our readiness to challenge what is established and in the ability to present new options.” In short, BMW is jumping the curve and embracing the future.
Watch the short video below and notice how doors and hoods no longer open (they fold and zip open) and how the lights do open (much like human eyes), I think you’ll agree that the benefits of jumping the curve could give BMW a very distinct competitive advantage as it boldly moves into the future.
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Craig Venter: Exponential Executive
Describing what an “exponential executive” is exactly is difficult. In fact, it is kind of like that old saw which has been attributed to Louis Brandeis, who when he was asked to define pornography, responded by saying “I’ll know it when I see it.”
I have identified a few “exponential executives” in the past such as George C. Marshall, but I’d now like to introduce you to another: Craig Venter, the man largely responsible for first sequencing the human genome back in 2001 and the founder of the Institute of Genomic Research.
Venter is now the leading pioneer in the promising field of synthetic biology , which as I have explained before, has the ability to bring about paradigm-shifting changes in the fields of agriculture, energy and pharmaceuticals.
The other day, however, the New York Times ran a fascinating article entitled ”Pursuing Synthetic Life, Dazzled by Reality.” In the article there is this wonderful quote from Venter: ”My view is that we know less than 1 percent of what’s out there in the biological universe.”
It is a great quote and it is why I believe Venter is an exponential executive. The wise person knows what he doesn’t know and, in this case, Venter has realized that society has only begun to tap the surface of Mother Nature’s biological secrets. This attitude is likely to take him very far indeed. In fact, it is likely that the field of synthetic biology will experience exponential growth because of this humble attitude.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Find Some “Zero-Gravity” and Cross-Disciplinary Thinkers
In today’s New York Times there is an interesting commentary entitled ”Innovative Minds Don’t Think Alike.” This is hardly a revolutionary idea, but the author makes a good case that any number of businesses can benefit from an outsider’s perspective.
I would take this argument a step further and argue that businesses should also actively seek out cross-disciplinary thinkers—generalists who are well-versed in a variety of different fields. I say this because history has proven that innovation only rarely comes from those experts who know “more and more about less and less.”
More often, the really big breakthroughs come from those thinkers who are able to make connections between different discoveries. As James Burke reminds us in his excellent book, Connections, Alexander Graham Bell was not an expert in either electricity or magnetism, but he knew enough to combine the work of Leon Scott, Michael Faraday and H.C. Oersted to invent the telephone.
In this same way, I don’t believe that the next great breakthroughs will result from straight scientific discoveries in nanotechnology, material science, computers, robotics or brain-scanning technology. Instead, they will come from the convergence of these different forces by individuals who are able to make unique connections. Therefore, in order to “jump the curve” and stay ahead of these breakthroughs (or, better yet, have your company make the breakthroughs) it will help to bring in not just “zero-gravity” thinkers but some cross-disciplinary thinkers as well.
Related Posts
Set Discontinuous Goals
Don’t Incrementalize Yourself Into the Future
Dangerous Curves Ahead
Exponential Evolution
A Useful Analogy for Thinking About the Future
Think 10X, Not 10%
Einstein, Intel and All the Rice in China
Embracing Change
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Exponential Educator
Few people would disagree that the state of education in America is in poor condition. Unfortunately, all too often the debate for fixing the problem centers on stale old nostrums, including paying teachers more money and making class sizes smaller. Rarely, do people discuss how emerging technologies have the potential to enrich the educational experience for students and teachers alike.
Three articles from today’s news help paint a different and exciting picture of the future state of education. The first was reported in Physorg. Com and it discusses how scientists are using virtual reality goggles to study out-of-body experiences. Now, out-of-body experiences aren’t something I would yet recommend teaching young students about, but what the study does indicate is that virtual reality technology might soon be used to help “train people to do delicate ‘teleoperating’ tasks, such as performing surgeries remotely.”
My point is that if this technology can be used to help doctors learn how to perform surgery remote, there are surely other educational applications it can also be used for, such as studying human anatomy in a biology class.
The second article was an editorial by Michael Granof in the New York Times addressing the insanity of how the market for college textbook market currently exploits students. In short, Granof proposes rather than having students shell out between $100-$150 for a textbook; schools and universities instead license the intellectual content of the material. He makes a compelling case and it is an excellent example of jumping the curve.
The final item comes compliments of CNET. It is a piece entitled, “Is the digital pen mightier,” and it discusses how digital pens are getting exponential better. The technology might not yet be ready for mainstream use but, mark my word, the time is coming and the “Exponential Educator” needs to begin thinking today about how these exciting new technologies and ideas can be used tomorrow to enhance the educational experience.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership.
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A Debate about the Future
Is this the direction we’re headed?
This past Sunday I watched the Democratic presidential candidate debate held at my alma mater, Drake University. I did the same thing earlier in the month when the Republican candidates spoke at the university. Instead of finding inspiration, I came away from both debates with the sense that something important was missing from each. Specifically, no candidate approaches today’s important issues of health care, education, the environment and war from the perspective that the near-term future of all of these issues will almost certainly will be different-and perhaps radically so-because of the accelerating pace of technological change.
Let me provide just a few recent examples. Last week, the Pentagon reported that it had begun arming robots with guns for the first time ever. The following day it announced that it intended to triple the number of robots in battlefield situations by 2010. And by 2015-a date that would place it near the end of the next president’s second term-the Defense Department has publicly stated that it expects one-third of the U.S. fight force to consist of robots.
If this holds true, it will be a shift of historic proportions and it would be helpful to have the current crop of future would-be commanders-in-chief explain their thinking on the morality of machines making life-and-death decisions and, more broadly, whether they think the wide-scale use of robots will lead to more or less wars like the one we are now engaged in Iraq.
Earlier this week another scientific advance with profound public policy implications was announced when a handful of publications touted the remarkable amount of progress scientists are making in creating artificial life forms. According to the reports, most experts agreed that it is reasonable to expect a breakthrough in this field in the next three to 10 years and one scientist was even quoted as saying “We’re talking about a technology that could change our world in pretty fundamental ways.”
To my way of thinking, anything that can change our world in “pretty fundamental ways” is appropriate fodder for a presidential debate. These synthetic life forms are purported to be capable of wonderful things like fighting disease and efficiently creating new forms of clean, sustainable energy. They might also, however, be used for more nefarious purposes. At a minimum, it would be helpful to hear how those now wishing to lead this country think about this issue and whether they want to boldly lead us into this brave new world or, alternatively, prevent scientists from even attempting to explore synthetic biology’s potential.
Lastly, hardly a day seems to go by without some new advance being touted in the field of computers, Internet technology, voice recognition software, and the development of new immersive virtual reality and social networking technologies. It is not much of a stretch to think that these advances will deeply alter the educational environment of the future. Yet instead of hearing a word about how any of these new technologies might impact education, all too often we are offered only stale platitudes about an issue all the candidates claim is at or near the top of their agenda.
Not all of the blame for failing to address the future can be laid at the feet of the candidates. Few in the media attempt to pose thoughtful questions along these lines and most citizens are more naturally concerned with more immediate issues that confront them on a daily basis. Alas, these are merely excuses. One true test of leadership is a person’s ability to think about the future and, when appropriate, begin preparing others for a new future. A debate offers the perfect forum to achieve both goals.
Isaac Asimov once wrote, “It is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be. This, in turn, means that our statesmen, our businessmen, our everyman must take on a science fictional way of thinking.”
Well, yesterday’s science fiction-the stuff of robotic warriors, artificial life forms and virtual reality-is quickly becoming today’s science fact. Future debates have the potential to both enlighten and educate, but in order to achieve this goal the candidates, the media, and the public need to first adopt a more “science fictional way of thinking.”
Jack Uldrich is a Drake graduate. He is the author of numerous books and his forthcoming book, Jump the Curve: 50 Strategies for Dealing with Emerging Technologies, is due out in 2008. He formerly worked in Governor Jesse Ventura’s cabinet as the director of the office of strategic and long-range planning.
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