Chapter 6: Heads and Tails: It's Counterintuitive

The Internet is Making Smarter … and Dumber

Two of my favorite writers and thinkers have recently released books. Clay Shirky has written a book entitled Cognitive Surplus: Creativity and Generosity in a Connected Age in which he persuasively argues, among other things, that the Internet is making us smarter because it is allowing society to produce such knowledge accelerators as Wikipedia at virtually no cost.

On the other hand, Nicholas Carr has just released his book, The Shallows: What the Internet is Doing to Our Brains, in which he outlines his thesis for why the Internet is making us dumber. (In a nutshell, Carr convincingly argues that the Internet distracts us and makes prolonged thought more difficult. In the process, the Internet is literally rewiring our brain.)

Over the weekend, the two men outlined their respective arguments in the Wall Street Journal. (Shirky’s argument can be read here and Carr’s here.)

So who is right? Many people will be swayed by various arguments and place themselves firmly on one side of the debate or the other. In my humble opinion, however, both men are right. The world isn’t black or white, it is black and white as well as various shades of gray—all at the same time.

This can be a difficult concept to grasp but as F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote: “The test of a first rate mind is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.”

If you don’t believe this is true, just look at the optical illusion to the right. Does it say “true” or “false” or does it say both at the same time? Once you learn to embrace ambiuity, you will be one step closer to embracing the future.

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The Future’s So Fast It’ll Slow Down

I’m not trying to get deep on you with this title: The Future Is So Fast It’s Slow. Instead, I want to make an important point about the future. It is a fact that technology is accelerating. It is easy, therefore, to jump to the conclusion that everything else will speed up as well. In many cases this it true but not always.

In a counter-intuitive way, the future’s accelerating pace of change can work against itself. How so, you ask? Consider the case of the flat panel television. How many of you postponed a purchase because you were afraid that the television you purchased would be obsolete as soon as you bought it? My guess is that you may have delayed your last laptop computer for the same reason.

The number of items about to experience this effect will soon accelerate. Consider your car purchase. Will you delay buying a new car because a new hybrid vehicle may soon be available or, perhaps, a new higher MPG version is soon expected. The same thing will happen with cellphones, electronic books, and solar cells.

The pace of change is these areas is accelerating so rapidly that it is hard to know when to pull the trigger and buy a specific. As a result, you don’t. This lack of capital in turn retards progress.

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The Future Requires Engaging in Situational Unawareness Training

”Be very, very careful what you put into that head, because you will never, ever get it out.”—Thomas Cardinal Wolsey

Question: What two colors are the yield sign?

Did you say yellow and black? That answer would have been correct if Marcus Welby, M.D. was still the top-rated TV show; Richard Nixon occupied the White House or NASDAQ had yet to become a leading stock market index. The yield sign, though, has been red and white since 1971. Interestingly, a large number of people—including many born after 1971 - still erroneously believe the yield sign is yellow and black.

This phenomenon demonstrates that once a thing has been learned—even something as common as the color of a sign—it can be very difficult to unlearn.

Compare this situation with the actions of computer industry executives in the 1980s who had learned about computers in the era of mammoth mainframes and were accustomed to producing their own proprietary hardware and software and then having internal sales teams market and sell the expensive products they created.

With the advent of the personal computer the rules suddenly changed and companies began relying on microprocessors and packaged software and using third parties to distribute and sell the product. A handful of computer companies adjusted but many others such as Digital Equipment, Wang and Burroughs did not because either they didn’t unlearn the old rules or were late in adjusting to the new signs.

The same situation occurred more recently in the telecommunications industry. Prior to the creation of the iPhone, providers dominated the telecom industry and dictated to phone manufacturers the terms of agreement. The creation of Apple’s multi-touch, gesture interface and “apps"--laden device flipped the industry on its head. In a matter of months, millions of people switched providers and began using mobile devices to access the Internet (with a user--friendly browser), watch videos, read books and, together with the growing universe of software applications, do everything from locate their parked car at an airport and identifying obscure birds and songs to keeping their child mildly amused with an easy-to-download “fart app.”

In each case, the signs of change were not immediately obvious but they could have been picked up on if industry leaders had engaged in some situational “unawareness” training by stepping outside their industry’s existing paradigm and scanning the environment for subtle changes in technology, consumer behavior or the competitive landscape. For example, in the automotive industry, new advances in nano-materials and battery power could lead to radical new designs; the continued growth of social networking may demand the cars of the future to maintain constant connectivity and improve the driving experience; and advances in robotics and rapid prototyping could transform both the manufacturing process and the supply chain. In each case, automotive professionals will have to unlearn what a car looks like; how it is made; what it is expected to do; and who they will have to partner with in order to build the car of the future.

Homework Assignment: Using Starbucks as a case study, indentify three emerging trends in technology, consumer behavior or the beverage/food industry that may necessitate company officials to unlearn some aspects of its current business model.

Extra Credit: Identify at least two things which have contributed to Starbucks past success but that it should consider stop doing? (Hint: In 2009, the company dropped its name from a store in Seattle and replaced it with a name that more closely resembles a neighborhood corner coffee shop.)

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Microsoft Jumps the Curve

Microsoft has developed a cool new interface that allows consumers to control images on the front of the device (or phone) from the back. As devices get ever smaller, this seems like a natural evolution of where interface technology is headed.

Interested in other other articles by America’s leading telecommunications futurist, Jack Uldrich? Check out these past articles:

Voice Recognition Technology Takes a Baby Step into the Future
The Shape of Things to Come: Foldable Cellphones
The Swiss Army Phone of the Future
More Cellphones = Fewer Roads
The Future of Telecommunications in Six Videos

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Want to Go Faster, Close a Road

I live in a major metropolitan area and the traffic situation drives me crazy. If someone then told me that they were going to close a road in order to reduce traffic congestion, I’d likely think they were either crazy or stupid. As I mention in my book, Jump the Curve, emerging technologies can, however, often throw people—myself included—for a loop. This story is a perfect case-in-point.

One would think that perfect information on traffic conditions would lead to an optimization of people’s personal travel time. Alas, this is not the case. In fact, people’s commutes in major cities such as Boston, London and New York can be reduced by 30%, 24% and 28% by selecting the “social optimum” choice. And, if people are reluctant to select the “social optimum” route because it defies conventional wisdom, local governments or traffic departments can always choose to close a road or two and force them into a better (i.e. faster) choice. Of course such a scenario smacks of Big Brother-like socialism and makes the civil libertarian in me cringe, but if you read the article you’ll at least understand the logic behind such a counter-intuitive policy.

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When Less is More

It is easy to believe that having more choices will lead to a greater level of happiness. However, as this new study suggests, people may be more satisfied when selecting from a smaller set of options.

There are a couple of reasons for this somewhat counter-intuitive finding, but the most poignant seems to be that when people select from a wider array of choices they often experience a greater sense of regret (after their selection) because they aren’t as confident that they made the optimal choice.

Trying to convince people that having fewer choices is a good idea will be difficult endeavor, but smart companies may be able to enhance their customers feeling of satisfaction by presenting information in new and innovative methods. For instance, think of on-line dating companies. Instead of presenting customers with an ever widening array of potential partners, they might instead employ sophisticated algorithms to narrow the list of prospective mates from which a person selects their choice.

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BMW Jumps the Curve

The German automaker BMW, in introducing its new “Light Visionary Model” prototype—which it dubs GINA (Geometry and Functions “N” Adaptions")—writes this: ”The key to affecting the development of tomorrow’s mobility lies in our readiness to challenge what is established and in the ability to present new options.” In short, BMW is jumping the curve and embracing the future.

Watch the short video below and notice how doors and hoods no longer open (they fold and zip open) and how the lights do open (much like human eyes), I think you’ll agree that the benefits of jumping the curve could give BMW a very distinct competitive advantage as it boldly moves into the future.

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Reverse Your Thinking

I am often accused of being overly optimistic about the future. I’ll admit that it is a fair accusation, but only time will tell whether it is me or my detractors who are wrong.

As evidence of my optimism, however, I would like to show you this short two-minute YouTube video clip:

What I took away from it is that there is a new generation of very clever people who are figuring out how to use technology to help people change—and, in this case, reverse—their thinking. And this, in short, is why I’m optimistic about the future.

As Albert Einstein once famously said, “We can’t solve today’s problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” Luckily, there is a world of bright, innovative individuals who are using technology to do everything from develop innovative new approaches to education; to creating new technologies to cure disease as well as produce affordable, clean sustainable energy.

Conventional wisdom and members of the existing political and corporate establishment (many of whom are more interested in protecting the status quo) will argue that these challenges can’t be met in a timely or affordable manner, but I disagree—I believe we need only reverse our thinking.

Related Posts

Yet Another Visual Paradox
Train Your Mind to See Two Different Points of View—At the Same Time!
The Queen of Paradox: Robyn Waters

Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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