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Speaker Ray Kurzweil vs Jack Uldrich: Leading Futurists

In my business as a professional futurist and keynote speaker, my message is often compared to that of Ray Kurzweil’s—the noted inventor, author and futurist. And, to be honest, much of my thinking about the future has been influenced by Kurzweil. Nevertheless, in terms of style, how we deliver our respective messages about the accelerating pace of change are fundamentally different.

I have posted video samples of both of our work below but the difference can best be summed up by the idea that while Kurzweil focuses almost exclusively on technological trends, I focus more on how to help businesses and organizations think differently about the future.

To do this, I rely heavily on analogies and stories. I also spend more time outlining the skills—such as unlearning, becoming aware of “Black Swans,” ”Thinking Like a Child,” and ”Doing the Impossible”—which organizations will need in order to navigate tomorrow’s accelerating future.

Therefore, depending upon which type of futurist and keynote speaker your organization is looking for, you can either contact Ray’s speaker bureau or mine.

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A Future of Black Swans … or Unlearning the Future

”Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu

This famous quote was uttered over 2500 years ago and may strike some people as odd that, as a professional futurist, I have chosen to highlight it.

My rationale is two-fold. First, as I have said many times before, the chief responsibility of a futurist is not to “predict” the future but rather outline a range of future possibilities. Second, and more important, I have highlighted the quote because it is true.

If you have not already read Nassim Taleb’s outstanding book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, do so as soon as possible. On Page 177 of the book, Taleb has an illustration of the scattering effect which artfully explains why predicting the future—especially for longer time frames—is virtually impossible.

Because I can’t reprint the figure here, I am left with Taleb’s analogy for understanding the scattering effect: the prediction of a billiard ball.

Assuming one has knowledge of the location of every ball and the speed and accuracy of the cue ball, it is relatively easy to predict the expected movement of the ball after the first shot. A person might even expect that second, third and fourth degree movements can be estimated with great accuracy due to the growing computational power of computers. The problem, however, grows increasingly complex with each subsequent movement. This is because after the ninth movement the gravitational pull of a person standing at the next pool table exerts enough of an effect to alter the trajectory of the ball. And after 56 movements even the smallest particle on the outer edge of the universe will effect the trajectory!

The bottom line is this: There are simply too many factors to consider when contemplating the future 20, 30, 50 or 100 years out. (Even a small effect today can have outsized implications 50 years hence). The situation, of course, becomes even more complicated because of Taleb’s main thesis which is that “Black Swans”—described as “high impact, low probability” events—tend to shape the future more than “expected” trends.

Therefore, whether a future “Black Swan” takes the shape of a pandemic, an asteroid, an E-bomb, a rogue terrorist attack, a North Korean or Iranian nuclear attack, an unexpected breakthrough in quantum computing or synthetic biology, or, more likely, some “unknown unknown;” the future will be difficult too predict because we don’t have—and won’t ever have—enough knowledge about the future.

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Jack Uldrich Videos

To help potential speaking clients better understand how I present complex information in an insightful, entertaining and informative manner, I have compiled a series of recent video samples. Enjoy ... and have a wonderful weekend!

Jack Uldrich

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The Future of Manufacturing

“If you’re in the manufacturing business and you’re not worried, really concerned about what the future will do to your company, you’re not really cognizant of what’s going to be coming down the pike.” Peter Diamandis, Co-founder of Singularity University

I love the above quote. It is a message that I constantly emphasis with my corporate clients and it is why I recently put together this short 4-minute video explaining why business leaders need to unlearn their worldview. For additional information on how fast the manufacturing world is changing, I refer you to the articles below.

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Insuring the Future

A few months back while I was flying all across the country from Hawaii to Wichita to Atlanta giving presentations on nanotechnology, genomics and robotics to a variety of different industry associations, I had the opportunity to read Peter Bernstein’s best-selling book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.

Although it was written in 1996, I highly recommend it for anyone seriously interested in contemplating the future. This is because—for better or worse—the future will largely be determined by the insurance industry’s ability to understand—and thus underwrite—the future of various technologies.

For example, while I am personally optimistic about nanotechnology’s ability to create everything from scratch-resistant car panels to tailor-made drug delivery vehicles capable of killing cancer cells at an early stage, these products will not be commercially mass-produced until the insurance industry understands the environmental and health-related risks associated with new nanomaterials and nanoparticles.

Similarly, RFID (radio frequency identification) technology and nanosensors have the ability to create a host of wonderful applications. But until the insurance industry can adequately assess the potential dangers of how prolonged exposure to wireless technologies might impact people, the RFID industry could advance at a much slower pace than many people (including industry experts) expect.

The same is true for the rapidly emerging fields of synthetic biology and robotics. I have written before about the amazing potential of each to transform the energy, agriculture and automotive industries, but these things won’t happen until regulators and insurance professionals are comfortable insuring these technologies. For instance, while Craig Venter (a leader in the field of synthetic biology) is quick to dismiss the potential of some new artificial life form or “designer bacteria” escaping from his laboratory and wreaking havoc on an unsuspecting public, I’m not as confident the insurance industry will be as quick to dismiss the risk.

Regarding robotics, while it is easy to forecast that robotics will grow into a $50 billion industry within the decade—as Bill Gates has done—the figure could drop to a fraction of that amount if an iRobot PackBot goes haywire over in Iraq and inadvertently kills six soldiers or if a self-driven robotic car created by General Motors or Ford runs over a pedestrian.

Such events often cast a new—and less flattering—light on a promising new technology and can bring the industry (and its future hopes) into the cross-sights of the legal profession. As a historical example, recall that at the beginning of the 20th century asbestos was hailed as a wonder material for its amazing insulating and fire-retardancy properties. Today, we hold a decidedly different—and less positive—view of asbestos.

It is not my contention that the insurance industry will slow down all emerging technologies. In fact, in some instances, just the opposite might occur—the industry might facilitate the adoption of certain new technological advances.

For example, in spite of genomics incredible potential to violently disrupt the insurance industry’s business model of pooling risk, it is possible the insurance industry will facilitate the adoption of genetic testing by mandating that patients for certain diseases be genetically tested prior to the administration of any new drug in order to make sure that that drug will work effectively on the patient.

The same holds true for RFID technology. It could soon be determined that the cost of embedding sensors and RFID chips into bridges, cars, buildings and a host of other products greatly enhances safety and performance. If so, regulation could work in favor to these technologies by getting them mandated for certain applications.

If it seems as though I am speaking out of both sides of my both (i.e. that the insurance industry might either hamper or help RFID and other technologies) that is because I am. As F. Scott Fitzgerald once said, “The test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two diametrically opposed ideas in your head at the same time.”

It is a concept that all people interested in the future should adopt because professionals in the insurance industry are schooled in this very idea and they calculate not just the benefits of future technologies but also its potential risks and costs. And where the industry comes out in these calculations will, to a large degree, determine which technologies shape our future.

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I See a Promising Future for Stem Cell Therapy

This two-minute video from the UK offers promising evidence that stem cell therapy may soon help people with a variety of eye-sight problems:

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Did You Know … You Have to Jump the Curve

This 5-minute video entitled “Did You Know” has been around in various forms for a few years, but it still serves as an excellent reminders to why organizations must learn to “jump the curve:”

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The Future of Supply Chain Management

This past weekend I finished reading “Flowers for Algernon”—which was made into the 1968 movie “Charly” with Cliff Robertson. The basic premise of the book is that a retarded man undergoes an experiment and it provides him with superior intelligence for a short period of time.

At one point near the height of his intelligence Charly writes: “Strange about learning; the farther I go the more I see that I never knew even existed. A short while ago I foolishly thought I could learn everything--all the knowledge in the world. Now I hope only to be able to know of its existence, and to understand one grain of it.”

I am in the midst of preparing for a keynote presentation on “the future of supply chain management” and I was reminded of the passage because I stumbled across this front page article in today’s Wall Street Journal entitled ”Clarity is Missing Link in Supply Chain.”

I especially liked this quote from one executive who said when dealing with wildly inaccurate forecasts, “You actually had to pick a number with no knowledge whatsoever, because nobody knows anything.” (The emphasis is mine—nobody knows anything!")

The quote highlights to me the need for professionals in the supply chain management business to—like Charly—first acknowledge how little they actually know. Once they do this they then at least open themselves up to the possibility for both the incremental and the radical advances that might benefit their profession.

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May 15, 2009 Jump the Curve: Beware of Emerging Technologies

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Will Wolfram Alpha Jump the Curve?

At 7pm (Central Standard Time) tonight, a new type of search engine—called Wolfram Alpha -- will go live. There is still much that can go wrong with the program but, personally, I am very excited about the project and believe it heralds yet another step down the inevitable path toward artificial intelligence. All I can say is stay tuned. (Below is a 5-minute video explaining tonight’s venture.)

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The Future of the Airline Industry

A few months back, Freakonomics had an interesting post entitled ”What Will U.S. Air Travel Look Like in Ten Years.” The post had some helpful insights from industry experts such as Clifford Winston, Richard Branson and Josh Marks, but few of these insiders looked at the issue through the lens of emerging technologies.

Let me then offer my thoughts on how the industry will change in the decade ahead. For starters, advances in RFID technology will have greatly reduced—if not altogether—eliminated lost bags. Recall that last year, IBM announced it was partnering with Schiphiol Airport in Amsterdam to begin tracking baggage through that airport using RFID technology. By the end of 2009, IBM is hoping to trace all 70 million pieces of luggage that flow through the airport. Given the competitive nature of the airline industry and the high cost of lost baggage, I expect every major airport in the world to have implemented RFID technology by 2017.

Second, while it is impossible to predict how effective labor unions will be in protecting the jobs of thousands of TSA workers, I think there is an excellent chance that consumers will have a much shorter delay when entering the airport of 2017 due to new advances in molecular diagnostics, facial recognition technology, Iris identification and nanosensors. These technologies should allow a limited number of security personnel to efficiently and securely oversee the screening of the millions of passengers that pass through the airport each day by rapidly and accurately detecting the presense of any harmful weapon or dangerous chemical or biological contaminant.

Third, I expect airplanes to become even more crowded as the airlines use improved algorithms to actively sell empty seats to passengers. As America ages, many Baby Boomers will have extra time on their hand and the airlines, by knowing more about each customer (such as knowing that your Uncle Freddy likes to go to Las Vegas) will be able to entice him on short notice to catch the flight for $79.

Directly related to this trend is the fourth trend or what I call hyper-information. Websites such as Farecast are already doing a good job of telling consumers if they should buy a ticket to Paris today or wait until closer to Christmas in order to get a better deal, but as a result of exponential advances in information processing technology, data storage and algorithms these sites are only going to get better. More perfect information will lead to a more efficient allocation of resources and a continuation of razor thin margins for the industry. In short, look for more bankruptcies and mergers as the weak are herded out.

Trend #5: Biofuels will alleviate some of the price and environmental pressures the industry is facing over rising fuel costs. Look for companies such as Imperium Renewables and others to develop environmentally-friendly biofuels for jets. It is even possible that advances in synthetic biology will have lead to companies such as Synthetic Genomics driving the price of jet fuel down signficantly.

Trend #6: This one will still likely be small, but I expect that a number of planes will have only one pilot by 2017. Advances in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and drones—which will have risen exponentially in military use—will have begun to make their way into the commercial airline industry by this time. Airline companies looking to cut costs will realize that it no longer makes economic sense to have two or three pilots per plane.

Finally, a portion of the regional air traffic (e.g. trips less than 300 miles) will be siphoned off by advances being made in the field of flying cars such as I wrote about here. While the vision of being able to take-off straight from your house likely won’t be possible by 2017, I do believe a limited number of well-to-do consumers will be able to drive to smaller regional airports and fly their cars to other regional airports that are in close proximity to their final destination. (For a video of this technology check out this recent post.)

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Develop a Future Bias

In my 2008 book, Jump the Curve, I make the case that one strategy for “jumping the curve” and helping your organization innovate into the future is to “develop a future bias.”

A future bias is the opposite of “hindsight bias” and hindsight bias is, quite simply, the idea that after an event occurs most people take credit for believing that the idea was pre-ordained and that they knew it would happen. For instance, by 1920, most citizens claimed they knew that man would “always” fly.

Unfortunately, this isn’t true. Most people were completely blind-sided by human flight. Lord Kelvin, the world’s most renowned scientist claimed in 1899 that “Heavier than air machines are impossible,” and no less an authority than the New York Times wrote in an editorial in December 1903—just two weeks before the Wright Brother’s historic first flight—that human flight would not be achievable for “1 to 10 million years.” My guess is that if a poll had been commissioned at the beginning of the turn of the 20th century the overwhelming consensus among the American public would have subscribed to similar opinions or, alternatively, something along the lines of “If God had intended man to fly, He would have given him wings.”

In the future, as a result of exponential advances in technology, many things that sound impossible today are, in fact, not only going to be possible they are going to be commonplace. Therefore, in order to embrace this future, it will be necessary to think exponentially—and not linearly—about the future. As Ray Kurzweil says in his book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, in the 21st century humanity will experience the equivalent of 20,000 years of change (using the 20th century’s rate of change). What he is trying to do in an indirect way is to get people to develop a future bias.

I recently came across this photo on Digg.com that shows the world as it is expected to look in 250 million years.

I think it offers a wonderful metaphor for thinking about tomorrow’s world because tomorrow will be radically different from today. Therefore, one of the first steps a leader must take in preparing him or herself to lead an organization into the future, is to develop a future bias. To do so, it first helps if that leader can envision a world that will look radically different. Therfore, when thinking about the future, I would encourage the “Exponential Executive” to keep the above picture always in mind.

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Long-Term Care’s Robotic Future

Later this week, I will be giving a keynote presentation to the Wisconsin Association of Homes and Services for the Aging. In addition to these two trends which I discussed a few weeks ago, another big trend I will be highlighting is the growing popularity of robotic pets. This six-minute video from Japan offers a glimpse into the future.

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A Glimpse into the Future

The future is difficult—if not impossible—to predict. One reason is because technologies converge into another and often spin out in different directions. Below are a series of short videos covering advances in haptic technologies, facial amination, robotics, nanotechnology, rapid prototype manufacturing and voiceless communication (i.e. brain-computer interfaces). Now, start “mixing and matching” these technologies in your mind. If you do, I think you’ll get at least a small glimpse of how different the future is going to look.

g-speak overview 1828121108 from john underkoffler on Vimeo.

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The Future of Aging

Early next month, I will be giving a presentation to the Wisconsin Association of Homes and Services for the Aging entitled “Jump the Curve to a New Future: 38 Ways Long-Term Care and Senior Housing Will Be Transformed in the Coming Decade.”

As a sort of preview of the presentation, I’d like to share two trends that were in the news this week. The first is that in the near future the bones of seniors will be much stronger than they are today thanks to new bone-boosting drugs now reaching the market.

The second, and somewhat related trend, is that those seniors who no longer can walk will soon be assisted by “wearable” robotics as this video amply demonstrates:

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The Exponential Banking Executive

(Editor’s note: The following article was recently written, along with Kendall Colman, for the Colorado Banking Association.)

We both have young daughters. As a way of imparting financial wisdom on them at an early age, we asked both of them after they lost their first tooth which they would rather receive from the tooth fairy: $1 per tooth or a penny for their first tooth and then double the amount for each successive tooth. After we informed that all children have 20 baby teeth, they both readily opted for the $20 option.

It was a costly mistake because their twentieth tooth would have been worth $5242.88! Such is the power of exponential growth.

The lesson, which is a familiar one to many in the banking industry, is more relevant than ever because society is poised to enter what we call the “exponential economy.” There are a number of technological forces, including computer semiconductors, Internet bandwidth, and data storage capacity, which are doubling anywhere from every 6 to 12 months. Moreover, they are expected to continue doubling for at least the next decade.

Another interesting fact about exponential growth is that anything that doubles just ten times is a thousand times bigger than it was at the beginning.

This recognition requires today’s banking executives to become what we call “Exponential Executives.” That is leaders who understand that as impressive as past technological advances have been—the ATM, online banking and mobile banking, etc—they are just the beginning.

Banking interactions will continue to evolve as customers’ physical and virtual worlds become intertwined, and social networks and mobile platforms will transform customers’ banking experiences and expectations. Still other advances will create an environment where a premium is placed on unconventional thinking and risk-taking.

As we enter the exponential economy there are five skills which will help the Exponential Banking Executive navigate through these turbulent and uncharted waters.

#1 Partnering: The first doubling in exponential growth is always from 1 to 2. The same principal is at work for the Exponential Executive as they head out into a future that seems almost unknowable. Yet if one thinks about this idea of “going out into the unknown” it is not much different than what Lewis and Clark experienced 200 years as they began their exploration of the American West.

Think about it for a moment. How do you prepare for a journey in which you have no idea of what you might encounter; how long you will be gone; or even what skills you will need?

Not surprisingly, the first decision Meriwether Lewis made was to invite William Clark to become his co-leader.

Tomorrow’s banking environment is going to be equally complex and to survive it may be essential to bring on a co-equal who has skills and expertise in areas where you are less strong. This model of co-leadership is one CO-CEO’s John Addison and Rich Williams have applied at Primerica Financial Services for years.

#2 Jump the Curve: In 1996, Reed Hastings wanted to start a new business that sent movie videos through the mail. At the time, his business model didn’t work because VHS cassettes were prone to breaking and too heavy to send through the mail at an economical cost. Hastings, however, understood something his peers didn’t. He knew data storage was doubling every six months and that by 1999 the movie industry was likely to convert all movie rentals to a DVD format. In essence, Hastings looked at where the curve of technology was headed and began planning his move years in advance.

If one applies this same insight to many of today’s accelerating technologies, such as biotechnology, genomics, stem cell research and nanotechnology, it is clear that most demographers’ life expectancy predictions will be well off the mark. Barring a major disaster, I fully expect life expectancies will soon reach 80 and shortly thereafter 90—and, perhaps, even higher. The Exponential Banking Executive’ should be “jumping the curve” and preparing for this contingency today by developing products, services and tools that will serve this growing population.

#3 Embrace Ambiguity. There is the old saying that if something looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it must be a duck.  The picture below is a duck, correct? Look again. When viewed from a different perspective it is also a rabbit.

The future must be viewed through the same lens of ambiguity. There is no question that the banking industry is in the midst of a severe crisis. But just as the Chinese character for the word “crisis” is comprised of the symbols for “danger” and “opportunity” so too is this present crisis also an opportunity.

The Exponential Executive faces the same reality as his or her peers, the difference is that he or she uses the situation to revisit old assumptions and fundamentally rethink how to do business in order to best serve their customers.

#4 Unlearn: Among the many trends that are doubling perhaps none is quite as astounding as the fact that scientific and technical knowledge is doubling every seven years. In other words, as impressive as everything we know today is, this knowledge will only equal half of what we will know in seven years—and just 25% of what we will know in 14 years!

From this perspective, it makes sense to think of today’s knowledge as the tip of the iceberg. Future knowledge is the equivalent of that portion of the iceberg that is presently underwater. As this new knowledge emerges over the coming years, one of the more difficult realities to accept is that it will make some existing knowledge obsolete. To prosper in the future then the Exponential Banking Executive must understand that unlearning will be just as critical as learning.

For example, as new wireless and virtual realities technologies become more prevalent how many branch offices will really be needed?  And, if people are living significantly longer, are 15 and 30 year mortgages the most appropriate terms? Change is never easy but if one embraces “unlearning” the rationale for change becomes easier to accept.

#5 Believe in Doing the Impossible: Just over one hundred years ago the idea of human flight was dismissed as the pipedream of a small group of fringe scientists and hobbyists. Fifty years the idea of a “test-tube baby” was similarly deemed impossible. And just ten years ago the idea that people working for free could design and write an encyclopedia which was as accurate as the Encyclopedia Britannica but be twice the size (and doubling every year) and available in a 140 different languages would have been dismissed as implausible. Wikipedia, of course, is a reality today.

If the future teaches us anything it is that the impossible has a way of becoming possible. The Exponential Banking Executive understands this reality and by partnering, jumping the curve, embracing ambiguity and unlearning, they are willing to accept that the path into the future will always be murky; but they also know they possess the tools and flexibility to help shape and create their own future.

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Follow the Future and Win a New Amazon Kindle 2

Dear Readers: From April 5 through April 12, I will be on vacation. During that time I will not be blogging. I will, however, continue to Twitter. As an enticement to encourage you to follow my tweets at twitter.com/jumpthecurve, I am offering you a chance to new a win Amazon Kindle 2. The full details are below.)

As someone who focuses on the future professionally, one might accuse me of missing the bus and not being more hip to Twitter sooner than I was. (I didn’t begin Twittering until January 2009.) I plead guilty to the charge and will offer no lame excuses.

After Twittering for a month and then reading this illuminating piece in Techcrunch, the business and social value of Twitter has become clearer to me. Therefore, in an effort to make up for lost time and increase my number of followers, I have decided to heed my own advice on the value of prizes as well as that of uber-Twitter Kevin Rose’s on the wisdom of starting a contest as a method of increasing one’s followers. (See tactic #7)

More specifically, I have decided to offer a new Amazon Kindle 2 to a randomly selected follower once I attain 5000 followers. There is nothing inherently magical about 5000 followers, I just felt it was an ambitious yet attainable goal. (Here’s a list of 10 reasons you—or may not—want a new Kindle 2.)

If you are reading this posting for the first time, I would greatly appreciate it if you would tweet this offer to your followers. If you have stumbled across this post due to Twitter, I’d sincerely appreciate it if you would consider retweeting it. Don’t know what either Twitter or a retweet is? Just click on the associated link.

The reason I have chosen a Kindle as the prize is because it is symbolic of the work I do as a business/technology forecaster and public speaker—in that I help organizations discern (or “read") the future. All of my tweets are geared toward this end. Thus, if you have even the slightest interest in the future—and I sincerely hope you do because it is, after all, where all of us will spend our remaining time on this planet—I’m confident you’ll find value in following me. Also, I’m happy to follow you back—especially if you’ve got some interesting, informative, innovative, insightful or just plain entertaining to say.

To ensure that I really do offer a new Kindle, I will conduct a live drawing on LiveCast and announce the winner’s name and then later post the recording of the event to my YouTube account. (Note: In the interest of fairness, my current followers will also be eligible to win as it wouldn’t be fair to unnecessarily penalize them just because they began following me early.)

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You Are The Future .. So Act Like It!

With apologies to Timbuk 3, sometimes ”the future is so bright, I’ve got to wear shades.” I’m positively optimistic about the future—and so should you.

Before I explain why let me say that, like many of you, I’m not immune to the economic downturn. My speaking engagements are off for the year and I recently had a publisher renege on a signed book deal.

I remain optimistic, however, because I realize the future doesn’t just happen to us. It is not the economy; a lack of money; technology; President Obama or any host of other factors that ultimately determine our future. The future is created by—drum-roll, please—us!

We are not passive bystanders to the future. We are active participants and it is through our actions that the future is ultimately created.

If you’re looking for some perspective and a good laugh watch this hilarious 4-minute video clip of the comedian Louis CK on the Conan O’Brien Show explaining why ”Everything is Amazing, and Nobody is Happy.” For a more inspirational video I recommend this 12-minute presentation by Ulei Gegenschatz. It is a tribute to the human spirit and a testament to the heights we can soar to (literally) when we have the capacity to dream and the courage to act.

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The Building and Construction Industry’s New Reality

Yesterday, I was working with a client in the buildings and trade industry as they were preparing for a strategic planning session with a group of their senior executives. I reminded them that they needed to face a new reality -- one that is separate from the current economic crisis.

As technology continues to evolve, society—due to advances in everything from biotechnology to stem cell research—will grow older. As such, residential builders need to seriously think through the needs of their future consumers. It is a mistake to think that the future needs of seniors will be the same as seniors today. In the near future, people living to 85, 90 and even 100 (and beyond) will be healthier and stronger than their counterparts today.

They are, however, just as likely to live on fixed incomes. So what does this mean? For starters, it will mean that they want to be protected from fluctuating energy costs. As a result, homes will need to integrate advanced solar cells, smaller “roof-top” wind turbines, energy-efficient nanomaterials, and smart meters.

Seniors will also want to maintain their independence, so builders will need to think through how advanced sensors, RFID technology, robotics and new multi-touch sensors will enable and foster self-sufficiency.

The current climate is tough and better days are ahead for the industry. Nevertheless, the industry will face new challenges in the future and the time to be thinking about those challenges (which are also opportunities) is now.

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Innovation, Not Regulation: Jack’s Interview on The Small Business Advocate

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Futurist Jack Uldrich Offers Compelling, Entertaining Keynotes

To help potential speaking clients better understand how I present complex information in an insightful, entertaining and informative manner, I have compiled a series of recent video samples. If you are interested in booking me for your next conference, seminar or event, please contact any of the following speakers bureaus: Leading Authorities, International Speakers Bureau, The Executive Speakers Bureau, Convention Connection, Brooks International or Five Star Speakers.

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Jump the Curve Strategy #12: Think Small, Very Small

The term nanotechnology often brings to mind Star Trek episodes or conjures up futuristic images of nanobots patrolling our bloodstream in search of deadly cancer cells. While such nanobot-like devices are, in fact, under development, the reality of nanotechnology is, for the time being, slightly more prosaic. The profits it is producing, though, are not, and a number of companies are employing nanotechnology to “walk the escalator” today.

Nano-Tex, a manufacturer of nanofibers, has been treating, among other things, the pants of Eddie Bauer, Lee Jeans, and Perry Ellis for almost four years now. The company’s nano-whiskers, as they are called, infuse the pants with amazing stain-resistant properties. Since 2004, when it treated 20 million pair of pants, the company has now increased that total to an estimated 100 million enhanced-garments.

Nano-Tex and other companies are also treating upholstery and carpeting with nanoparticles, and hotel and restaurant chains are using these fabrics to reduce cleaning bills and limit the frequency with which they have to replace furniture. According to Wilbur Ross, the owner of Nano-Tex, sales of nano-enhanced textiles will grow from $11 billion in 2007 to $120 billion in 2011.

Another industry using nanotechnology today is the paint and coating industry, which employs nanoparticles to create self-cleaning and scratch-resistant paints. In one interesting example, DuPont has teamed up with a small nanotechnology company, Ecology Coatings, to create something called a “liquid solid.” Because the coating can be applied so thinly and so quickly, it is expected to cut the material and energy-related costs of painting automobiles by 75 percent and 25 percent respectfully. As an added benefit, because the nanoparticles also eliminate the use of industrial solvents, it removes the need for the company to obtain environmental permits and comply with certain costly regulations.

Almost everywhere one turns these days, the advances of nanotechnology can be spotted. In 2005, the Food and Drug Administration approved the first drug using nanoparticles; in 2006 Nanosolar, a company using nanoparticles to manufacture a new thin-film solar cell, broke ground on a massive manufacturing facility; in 2007 IBM and Intel both announced that they would be reformulating their recipe for silicon at the atomic level to improve the speed of existing computer chips by 20 percent while also cutting down on energy consumption by a factor of ten; and last year Nokia announced it intended to employ nanotechnology to make next-generation cellphones.

Exponential Insight

The application of the smallest of sciences can lead to some very big improvements in product performance--and profits. For instance, self-cleaning windows and materials can help a number of companies cut down on maintenance costs, and better-insulating nanomaterials can cut down on a business’s energy consumption. Alternatively, nanotechnology can adversely impact a number of existing businesses. Consider the impact on the dry-cleaning business as billions of garments begin to be coated with stain-resistant nanofibers or the impact of scratch-resistant paints on both the automobile repair business and the insurance industry. If you operate in an industry where the profits are razor thin, the emerging science of the small--nanotechnology--might be able to protect and pad those margins.

Related Posts on Nanotechnology

The Nano Song: A Quicker Primer on Nanotechnology
15 Ways Nanotechnology is Already Making Your Life Better
Nanotechnology & The Future of the Cellphone
Nanotechnology and the Changing Face of the Electric Utility Industry

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Follow the Future and Win a Kindle 2

(Note: My regular posting for March 13, 2009 is below. If you’ve already read about the contest, you can just jump to my latest “Jump the Curve” strategy here).

As someone who focuses on the future professionally, one might accuse me of missing the bus and not being more hip to Twitter sooner than I was. (I didn’t begin Twittering until January 2009.) I plead guilty to the charge and will offer no lame excuses.

After Twittering for a month and then reading this illuminating piece in Techcrunch, the business and social value of Twitter has become clearer to me. Therefore, in an effort to make up for lost time and increase my number of followers, I have decided to heed my own advice on the value of prizes as well as that of uber-Twitter Kevin Rose’s on the wisdom of starting a contest as a method of increasing one’s followers. (See tactic #7)

More specifically, I have decided to offer a new Amazon Kindle 2 to a randomly selected follower once I attain 5000 followers. There is nothing inherently magical about 5000 followers, I just felt it was an ambitious yet attainable goal. (Here’s a list of 10 reasons you—or may not—want a new Kindle 2.)

If you are reading this posting for the first time, I would greatly appreciate it if you would tweet this offer to your followers. If you have stumbled across this post due to Twitter, I’d sincerely appreciate it if you would consider retweeting it. Don’t know what either Twitter or a retweet is? Just click on the associated link.

The reason I have chosen a Kindle as the prize is because it is symbolic of the work I do as a business/technology forecaster and public speaker—in that I help organizations discern (or “read") the future. All of my tweets are geared toward this end. Thus, if you have even the slightest interest in the future—and I sincerely hope you do because it is, after all, where all of us will spend our remaining time on this planet—I’m confident you’ll find value in following me. Also, I’m happy to follow you back—especially if you’ve got some interesting, informative, innovative, insightful or just plain entertaining to say.

To ensure that I really do offer a new Kindle, I will conduct a live drawing on LiveCast and announce the winner’s name and then later post the recording of the event to my YouTube account. (Note: In the interest of fairness, my current followers will also be eligible to win as it wouldn’t be fair to unnecessarily penalize them just because they began following me early.)

P.S. To the regular readers of Jump the Curve, between now and April 15, 2009, I will be working on updating the 2009 version of my book, Green Investing: A Guide to Making Money through Environment-Friendly Stocks. As a result, I won’t have as much time to devote to my regular blog. To keep your attention, however, I will be publishing the entire version of Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies to Help Your Company Stay Ahead Emerging Technologies online at this site. Each day you can expect at least one new “strategy.” I also invite readers to continue to follow my daily (and hourly) thoughts on the future at twitter.com/jumpthecurve and/or subscribe to my free monthly newsletter, The Exponential Executive.)

I hope you enjoy the book, and I appreciate your patience! Below is the post for today, March 13, 2009.

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