Strategies for innovating into the future:
Global futurist and author Jack Uldrich offers essential strategic information on nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, RFID and many other future technologies to help you prosper as exponential trends converge at this unique moment in history.
Recent Videos
Subscribe to the Exponential Executive Newsletter Now!
Please enter your name and email:
Recent Blog Posts
Most Popular Posts
Articles Listed by Industry
Health CareManufacturing
Computer/Semiconductor
Telecommunications
Energy
Life Science/Pharmeceutical
Agriculture
Education
Robots
Internet/Information Tech
Finance
Nanotechnology
Retail/Marketing
Automobile/Aerospace
Defense
Aging Services
Other
Articles Listed by Chapter
Chapter 1: The Power of ZenzizenzizenzicChapter 2: Exponential Enablers
Chapter 3: Walk the Escalator
Chapter 4: The Power of Play
Chapter 5: The Spice of Life--Diversity
Chapter 6: Heads and Tails: It's Counterintuitive
Chapter 7: Get in Touch with Your Animal Instincts
Chapter 8: Back to the Future
Chapter 9: Learning to Unlearn
Chapter 10: Doing the Impossible
Other
Archives
August, 2010July, 2010
June, 2010
May, 2010
April, 2010
March, 2010
February, 2010
January, 2010
December, 2009
November, 2009
October, 2009
September, 2009
August, 2009
July, 2009
June, 2009
May, 2009
April, 2009
March, 2009
February, 2009
January, 2009
December, 2008
November, 2008
October, 2008
September, 2008
August, 2008
July, 2008
June, 2008
May, 2008
April, 2008
March, 2008
February, 2008
January, 2008
December, 2007
November, 2007
October, 2007
September, 2007
August, 2007
Other
Futurist Jack Uldrich on Regional Economic Development
Luncheon 2010 - Jack Uldrich from Katie Dye on Vimeo.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Futurist Jack Uldrich to Keynote the MoneyShow
From August 19-21, 2010 I’ll be joining Steve Forbes at the 2010 MoneyShow in San Francisco to discuss how exponential trends in technology will impact your investment portfolio. If you’re in the area, please consider joining us. For more information, click here.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The World is Changing
The following quote is from Hugh MacLeod’s new book Ignore Everybody and 39 Other Keys to Creativity. This is Rule 17: The World is Changing:
“Some people are hip to it, others are not. If you want to be able to afford groceries in five years, I’d recomend listening closely to the former and avoiding the latter. Just my two cents.”
Great advice. It’s exactly what I meant when I wrote The World is Changing: Unlearn. It is also an excellent reason for hiring a futurist.
Related Posts
The Practical vs The Impractical Futurist
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Practical Futurist Vs The Impractical Futurist
A fellow professional futurist bills himself as the practical futurist. The label has always rubbed me the wrong way and it’s not because I don’t also believe that some futurists can get a little ahead of themselves. Rather, it is because I think the phrase “practical futurist” is an oxymoron. By labeling himself as “practical” what he is really doing is confining himself to only “practical” ideas and if history teaches us anything it is that the future is rarely practical.
In 2006, would a practical futurist have predicted that the social networking site, Facebook, would be larger than all but three countries in this world or that Apple would have the most successful cellphone in the world and that it would possess over 150,000 different “apps” and these apps could do everything from tell you what song you are listening to ... to mimicking the sound of a fart?
In 2001, is it likely that a practical futurist would have predicted that people working for free and with no overhead would ultimately produce an encyclopedia larger and more accurate than anything Encyclopedia Britannica could produce? Or that this “people’s encyclopedia” would thump Microsoft’s plans to hire a hundred of the brightest PhD’s to construct Encarta—an online encyclopedia? Of course not, but today everyone uses Wikipedia and it is available in no fewer than 250 different languages.
In 1991, when a cellphone was the size of a large brick and cost $5000, would a practical futurist have predicted that in less than two decades 2 billion cellphones would be in existence on the planet and that fishermen in Africa would be using the devices to do everything from checking the weather to exchanging cash?
In 1981, when video games were only as sophisticated as Pac-Man, would a practical futurist have predicted that someday video games would be a larger industry than all of Hollywood? Would a practical futurist have predicted that bottled water would be a $17 billion a year industry?
In 1971, would a practical futurist have predicted that Moore’s Law would continue unabated for another 40 years and ultimately make computer chips so inexpensive that McDonald’s would give these computers away (in the form of cheap disposable toys) with a $3 Kid’s Meal?
In 1961, when computer memory devices were the size of a large desk, stored 5 megabytes, and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, would a practical futurist have predicted that some day tiny memory devices with a million times more storage capacity would be given away for free as trinkets at a national conference for gays, lesbians, trans-gender and trans-sexuals? (Perhaps they may have predicted the former but I bet the latter was nowhere near their “practical” radar screen).
In 1951, would a practical futurist have had the foresight to see that in the future pet food would be a $40 billion-a-year industry and that people would hire pet psychologists or that an airline would be created to cater specifically to those pet owners who wished to fly their pets in first class?
In 1941, would a practical futurist have predicted that the United States two greatest threats—Germany and Japan—would rank among our staunchest allies in less than two decades? Or, on the heels of the Great Depression, that some day obesity—and not hunger—would be among our greatest health threats.
In 1931, when no less of an authority than Albert Einstein was saying that there “wasn’t the slighest indication that nuclear power can be harvested,” would a practical futurist have predicted that an atomic bomb would be created less than 15 years later?
In 1921, when planes still hadn’t crossed the Atlantic Ocean, would a practical futurist have predicted that Atlanta would someday have the world’s largest airport and that 90 million people from all across the globe would fly through the once sleepy southern city?
And, in 1911, would a practical futurist have had the audacity to predict that just a decade later that an innovative entrepreneur would have created a way to transmits the human voice across the Atlantic Ocean? Not likely since in 1916 Lee De Forest was prosecuted by government officials for making such a preposterous claim. (Luckily he wasn’t found guilty and founded RCA in 1919.)
My point is simple. The future is accelerating and advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, information technology, robotics, genomics, stem cell research, regenerative medicine, brain-scanning technology, data storage, Internet bandwidth, photonics, energy technology, algorithms, voice recognition technology, social networks and synthetic biology—among others—are going to rock our world in ways that are difficult to imagine today.
If you want to be told that tomorrow is practical—because it might make you feel comfortable or because you don’t have the guts to hear things that may sound impractical—then, by all means, hire a practical futurist. I offer only this caveat: What I might say as an “impractical futurist” may not come to fruition but I can guarantee you this: If the future sounds “practical” it definitely isn’t going to come true.
Related Posts
Futurists Can Say the Dumbest Things
Futurist Jack Uldrich’s 20 Predictions for 2010
Futurist Jack Uldrich’s 10 Predictions for the Coming Decade
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
New Keynote Presentation: The Future Demands Unlearning
As long-time readers know, I have been focused on the concept of “unlearning” for some time now. I dedicated an entire chapter to the idea in my book, Jump the Curve and, in addition to this website, later this year I will also be releasing the first in a series of books on the topic of unlearning.
To this end, I am pleased to announce that I have developed a corresponding keynote presentation on the topic. It is a perfect motivational speech for any business, organization or institution that knows it must drive change in order to survive but is running into resistance from those “leaders,” managers, employees or customers who refuse to unlearn the old ways of doing business. Below is a brief description:
The pace of technological change is accelerating. Today’s organizations are living in a world where “constant change is the only constant.” New advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, and information technology are bringing forth exciting and unexpected discoveries every day, while the expansive and growing power of the Internet, social networking and the open-source movement are fueling the fires which threaten to consume much of today’s existing business landscape.
Life-long learning will obviously be more essential than ever in this chaotic and churning environment; but often lost in this new emerging reality of exponential change is the fact that before an organization can seize tomorrow’s opportunities it must first unlearn old, obsolete knowledge as well as unlearn the old ways of doing business.
In this fascinating, informative, entertaining, interactive and enlightening presentation, noted global futurist and best-selling author, Jack Uldrich--who has been hailed by BusinessWeek as “America’s Chief Unlearning Officer"--will not only explain why unlearning is a critical skill for your company and your organization’s employees, he will also demonstrate how unlearning can help:
-- Successfully navigate a future where the pace of scientific and technological knowledge is doubling every seven years;
-- Prepare for competition that doesn’t yet exist; and
-- Seize opportunities which are, today, only on the periphery of their imagination.
(For more information on this presentation, you may contact any one of the leading professional speakers bureaus which represent me or contact me directly at 612.267.1212.)
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Designing Hospitals with the Future in Mind
Take a look at the picture to the right. It’s a hospital circa 1910. Do you notice anything special about the photo? If you’re like most people you probably don’t. What makes the hospital interesting are the steps. The implicit message they sent to a prospective patient was that they had to be healthy enough to walk up the steps before the hospital could serve them.
In 1910, Tuberculosis, Typhoid, Diphtheria and Small Pox were the leading causes of death; less than two percent of hospital patients were considered “retired;” and healing was the exception--not the rule. Obviously, a great deal has changed in the past 100 years but it’s important to realize that things are going to change even more in the future and hospitals and healthcare facilities must think through these implications now.
Advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, stem cell research, genomics, robotics, social networking and wireless technologies--to name just a few--are going to revolutionize healthcare in the years and decades ahead. Consider the following:
--Continued exponential advances in computers; Internet bandwidth and sensors are altering how providers monitor patients’ health. Remote monitor tools, for example, not only have the ability to keep a great many patients from needing to visit the hospital in the first place, they will also allow more patients to leave the hospital quicker because the doctor will be able to monitor patients progress from home. Such tools will alter the throughput and turnover rates in hospitals dramatically.
--The price of sequencing the human genome has plummeted from an astronomical cost of $70 million in 2007 to less than $10,000 today. By 2012, the cost is expected to drop below $1000. The amount of genomic information that will soon be available could transform the treatment of some cancers as effectively as Jonas Salk’s vaccination addressed Polio. If so, what does the oncology ward of the future look like?
--In 2005, less than one percent of all prostatectomies were performed by robots. In 2010 this figure will reach 70 percent. As monumental as this change has been it just the first ripple in a real sea change. In the coming years, robots are also expected to perform hysterectomies, heart surgery, and eventually even brain surgery.
The pace of change in the healthcare industry is accelerating exponentially. Those organizations don’t prepare for this future will be left with facilities that are prepared to treat the wrong clients for the wrong diseases with the wrong tools. It will be the metaphorical equivalent of making patients walk up a flight of stairs to receive treatment. The bottom-line is this: if you want your facility to send the right message tomorrow, you must think through these issues today.
Jack Uldrich is a healthcare futurist and author of Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies for Dealing with Emerging Technology. This November, along with Rebecca Hathaway, Senior Vice President, HMC Architects, he will be presenting a session for the Healthcare Design Conference entitled “Designing in an Era of Exponential Change--How to “Jump the Curve” to a Smarter Healthcare Future.”
For other articles relating to the future of health care, check out the following:
Social Networking: The Future of Health Care
The Future of Health Care is as Near as Your iPhone
Healthcare is the “Verge” of Something Big
Here Comes Intelligent Medicine
The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating
Personalized Medicine’s Accelerating Future
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
A Funny Look at the Future of Newspapers
The fine folks at The Onion have done it again. If you’re looking for a little relief from the fast-paced nature of today’s technological change, I invite you to watch this hilarious two-minute video clip. Enjoy!
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
10 Jobs of the Future
Inventor: Until 1950, “inventor” was listed as an official occupation on the U.S. Census form. The job title will soon return as a new industrial revolution—fueled by advances in material science, robotics; 3-D printing; information technology; and nanotechnology—takes root and unleashes a wave of new (and practical) inventions.
Video-Book (Vook) editor: As electronic books and e-readers become more popular, a new generation of editors who are skilled at providing readers with information in multiple forms—text, graphics, video, etc—will be required.
Data analyst: The flood of new data which the world will soon experience due to the continued growth of sensors; RFID tags and video will create growing demand for individuals who can not only interpret and decipher this data but who can also display it in new and more meaningful visual formats.
Video game designer: As immersive video becomes more common in schools and businesses due to the continued growth of haptics; augmented reality; and virtual reality, a growing number of video game designers trained in these areas will be required.
Virtual nurse: Continued advances in video; real-time monitoring tools; and expanded bandwidth will make it possible to safely and effectively monitor patients from afar. As a result of increasing health care costs and an aging population, more healthcare providers will turn to “virtual nurses” to monitor patients until the services of an “on-location” healthcare professional are required.
Robot Technicians: As robots become ever more popular and people come to rely on them for everything from cleaning to companionship, they will increasingly become seen as part of the family. Therefore, unlike many consumer products, robots won’t simply be abandoned when a new model arrives. Instead, people will demand their existing robots be upgraded. This will require the services of trained technicians who can upgrade robots with the latest software and hardware.
Custom manufacturer: In the hands of creative individuals, continued advances in software; computer aided design (CAD) and rapid prototype manufacturing will lead to more individuals drawing their livelihood from designing and building custom-made products. Among the areas most impacted will be health care and the arts. Specially, bioengineers will soon learn how to design and build new organs (e.g. hearts, livers, kidneys); while artists will use the tools to create new products and new forms of jewelry and art.
Marine biologist: The incredible diversity of ocean is nowhere near being understood or appreciated. A new generation of marine biologists trained in everything from biomimicry to genomics will remedy this situation and apply many of the lessons of the ocean to problems back on land.
Fish farmer: The world’s growing population will continue to put pressure on fish supplies. In response, companies will turn to fish farms as a sustainable method for meeting this growing demand.
Change management consultant: As the pace of technology accelerates and knowledge becomes obsolete more quickly, the ability to unlearn will be just as critical as the ability to learn. In increasing numbers, organizations will call upon the services of professionals trained in helping people adjust to the notion of “continuing change.”
Related Posts
Futurist Jack Uldrich’s 20 Technology Predictions for 2010
Futurist Jack Uldrich’s 10 Predictions for the Coming Decade
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Value of a Futurist
It is a fact that 100% of the information we have—in terms of the data we collect or the patterns we spot—comes from the past. But is also true that 100% of the value of any decision we make will come the future. It therefore makes sense to deeply consider the future before making any decision.
Related Post
Why Hire a Futurist?
A Future of Black Swans
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Why Hire a Futurist?
Why hire a futurist? In two words, creativity and innovation. The purpose of a futurist is not simply to help companies, corporations and organizations understand where the future is headed (although this is part of the job), the more important role of a futurist to help create the future. The emphasis is on the word create.
There are a number of ways to do but it all begins with using our understanding of future trends to spark creativity in order to drive innovation. Let me provide three quick examples. First, your organization can embrace intellectual diversity as a means to spot new opportunities—or dangerous threats—before others.
Another simple trick is to view the future from a different perspective. (This can also be viewed as unlearning your old perspective). If you and your organization do this not only can problems be turned into opportunities but powerful new connections between seemingly unrelated ideas can be created. The resulting new ideas can then drive new innovations.
Finally, I personally engage in the power of story-telling and use metaphors (such as this one on nanotechnology) to help open vistas from which creativity and innovative can spring.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Future is Gold
Just in time for Valentine’s Day, the World Gold Council, in partnership with the fine folks at Cientifica, have released a new report entitled ”Gold for Gold: Gold and nanotechnology in the age of innovation” suggesting that gold may soon replace diamonds as “a girl’s best friend.”
OK. That’s not really what the report said but here are a few of the highlights about how gold nanoparticles may impact your future:
1. Gold’s inherent bio-compatibility properties make it an ideal candidate for targeting tumors;
2. Gold nanoparticles are being developed to enter inside other diseased cells (The nanoparticles are then heated with infrared light and this “cooks” the cell from the inside out);
3. Soon, gold nanoparticles may create needleless vaccines;
4. Gold-based nanoarrays might also help detect everything from whether a woman is pregnant to dangerous food borne pathogens;
5. Gold-based nanocatalysts are being created to prevent the release of mercury into the atmosphere as well as neutralize other deadly compounds such as carbon monoxide; and
6. Such nanocatalysts might also help purify water by removing arsenic or other common pollutants.
The report also covers other opportunities in fuel cells, coatings, dyes and pigment, solar cells, conductive inks, electronics and high density data storage. All told, its a solid report and offers further evidence that nanotechnology is moving into the commercial mainstream.
Related Posts
Nanotechnology in 250 Words or Less
15 Ways Nanotechnology is Making Life Better Today
How Swede It Is: Recyclable Lighting
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Medical Devices’ Innovative Future
Earlier today, I discussed why I feel Apple’s new iPad isn’t quite ready for the prime time. This is in spite of the exciting applications I believe it can—and will—bring to the healthcare sector. But in this post, I’d like to turn from external devices and instead look at the amazing opportunities which await internal devices and the medical device industry in general.
Two recent articles shed light on some future possibilities. First,the development of new piezoelectric nanoribbons have lead to the development of power-generating rubber films. One possibility is for these materials to be attached to medical devices thereby eliminating the need for batteries. Imagine, for example, a pacemaker that could harvest the mechanical energy from a beating heart or an expanding lung and translate that into electrical energy to power a pacemaker? At a minimum, the need to perform a surgical operation to replace the battery will be eliminated. On a larger scale, however, such an advance could also open a host of opportunities for medical devices.
Taken a step further the same technology could power an insect-like “microid” which could patrol the human body looking for, reporting on, and, ultimately, eliminating disease-causing agents. Such an idea may sound far-fetched to some but Japanese researchers have already created insect-sized robots that can move about inside the human body.
The bottomline is that the convergence of new nanomaterials; flexible electronics; smaller, faster and more powerful microprocessors; and advanced robotics portend a golden age of innovation within the medical device industry.
Related Posts
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Jack Uldrich’s Predictions for the Coming Decade: The Turbulent Teen’s
“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” It was the ancient Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu who uttered these wise words. As a professional futurist, I always keep this quote in the back of my mind and remind my audiences that I am not in the business of making predictions. Instead, I offer my clients a forecast which includes a broad range of future possibilities.
Nevertheless, I understand the appeal of predictions and do feel they can play a limited role in helping businesses, corporations, NGOs, and governments more realistically think about the future.
Therefore, much as I did last month with my 20 Predictions for 2010, I would now like to offer my humble predictions for how the following decade may unfold—all the time remembering that the future will most likely be shaped by those ”Black Swans” which none of us see coming.
Here then are some of my predictions to get your “future juices” flowing:
2010: The term “augmented reality” will be the year’s big buzzword. Augmented reality apps such as Yelp Monocle and Wikitude World Browser will continue to grow, but the year’s biggest hit will be the yet-to-be-released TAT Augmented ID—which uses face-recognition software to display information about the person being viewed. By the end of the decade, health care professionals will be able to display a patient’s entire medical history on a flexible electronic device which they can fold up and carry with them at all times.
2011: “Vooks”—a combination between an electronic book and a video—will become increasingly popular. By the end of the decade, a number of schools will be using the devices to provide students a deeper, more meaningful learning experience.
2012: College graduates will begin identify a variety of new career possibilities. Some of the more popular future jobs include genetic data counselors; privacy data consultants; 3-D gaming software enginners; rapid prototype manufacturers and climate geoengineers. By the middle of the decade, frustrated by society’s inability and unwillingness to seriously change their behavior in the face of climate change, Al Gore will reverse his position and become an advocate of limited climate geoengineering—the idea of using technology on a grand scale to modify the natural environment.
2013: A truce in the “War on Cancer” will be called as advances in gene therapy and nanomedicine begin addressing cancer at the molecular level. Cancer will still exist but the new paradigm will be premised on treating cancer on an ongoing basis. (In this way, it will be similar to how we now treat diabetes.) By the end of the decade, chemotherapy will be viewed as a crude and blunt instrument.
2014: A combination of radical advances in solar and desalination technology will afford an increasing number of farmers—especially those near coastal areas—access to cheap and reliable amounts of fresh water. By the end of the decade, however, climate scientists will become increasingly concerned that the amount of water being diverted from the world’s ocean is having a harmful effect on a number of ocean creatures. On a different front, advances in the field of synthetic biology will now be regularly supplying airlines with jet fuel produced from biomass.
2015: Due to a plethora of medical advances in gene therapy, biotechnology, nanomedicine, stem cell research and regenerative medicine, life expectancy will continue to grow faster than most demographers has estimated. Congress is finally forced to accept this reality and indexes Social Security and Medicaid benefits to the annual upward adjustments in life expectancy. AARP members complain loudly and use the latest social media tools to bolster their cause but younger more tech-savvy voters use new and even more effective data mining tools to out-organizer the “geezer geeks.”
2016: In the face of the growing environmental costs of producing, processing, shipping, packaging and storing meat, the FDA approves lab-grown pork for the commercial marketplace. PETA applauds the move but Greenpeace vows to fight the growing trend and labels lab-grown meat as “Frankenfood II.” By this time in the decade, a major biological attack will have occurred somewhere in the developed world and a number of democratic governments will have responded by limiting personal freedoms in exchange for greater security. (Advances in predictive algorithms; data mining; and face and voice recognition; cheap camera; and sensor technology will make security technology very effective.)
2017: Time Magazine will be in serious discussions about ending the print version of its magazine and will name “The Robot” as its 2017 “Person of the Year.” Space flight—at least into the outer atmosphere—will become affordable for upper middle class individuals.
2018: Diamonds will no longer be a “girl’s best friend.” The natural diamond market will collapse in the face of the superiority of synthetic diamonds. On a different note, startling progress in the field of tissue regeneration will have eliminated organ shortages and made organ donations as irrelevant as radiation therapy.
2019: The decade will be come to be referred to as “the turbulent teens” due to the growing maturity of such countries as India and Brazil; the wide-spread economic disruption wrought by technological advancement; and a renewed sense of optimism due to the fact that so many things once deemed “impossible” are now coming to fruition.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Jack Uldrich’s 10 Predictions for the Decade of the “Turbulent Teen’s”
”Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” It was the ancient Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu who uttered these wise words. As a professional futurist, I always keep this quote in the back of my mind and remind my audiences that I am not in the business of making predictions. Instead, I offer my clients a forecast which includes a broad range of future possibilities.
Nevertheless, I understand the appeal of predictions and do feel they can play a limited role in helping businesses, corporations, NGOs, and governments more realistically think about the future.
Therefore, much as I did last month with my 20 Predictions for 2010, I would now like to offer my humble predictions for how the following decade may unfold—all the time remembering that the future will most likely be shaped by those ”Black Swans” which none of us see coming.
Here then are some of my predictions to get your “future juices” flowing:
2010: The term “augmented reality” will be the year’s big buzzword. Augmented reality apps such as Yelp Monocle and Wikitude World Browser will continue to grow, but the year’s biggest hit will be the yet-to-be-released TAT Augmented ID—which uses face-recognition software to display information about the person being viewed. By the end of the decade, health care professionals will be able to display a patient’s entire medical history on a flexible electronic device which they can fold up and carry with them at all times.
2011: “Vooks”—a combination between an electronic book and a video—will become increasingly popular. By the end of the decade, a number of schools will be using the devices to provide students a deeper, more meaningful learning experience.
2012: College graduates will begin identify a variety of new career possibilities. Some of the more popular future jobs include genetic data counselors; privacy data consultants; 3-D gaming software enginners; rapid prototype manufacturers and climate geoengineers. By the middle of the decade, frustrated by society’s inability and unwillingness to seriously change their behavior in the face of climate change, Al Gore will reverse his position and become an advocate of limited climate geoengineering—the idea of using technology on a grand scale to modify the natural environment.
2013: A truce in the “War on Cancer” will be called as advances in gene therapy and nanomedicine begin addressing cancer at the molecular level. Cancer will still exist but the new paradigm will be premised on treating cancer on an ongoing basis. (In this way, it will be similar to how we now treat diabetes.) By the end of the decade, chemotherapy will be viewed as a crude and blunt instrument.
2014: A combination of radical advances in solar and desalination technology will afford an increasing number of farmers—especially those near coastal areas—access to cheap and reliable amounts of fresh water. By the end of the decade, however, climate scientists will become increasingly concerned that the amount of water being diverted from the world’s ocean is having a harmful effect on a number of ocean creatures. On a different front, advances in the field of synthetic biology will now be regularly supplying airlines with jet fuel produced from biomass.
2015: Due to a plethora of medical advances in gene therapy, biotechnology, nanomedicine, stem cell research and regenerative medicine, life expectancy will continue to grow faster than most demographers has estimated. Congress is finally forced to accept this reality and indexes Social Security and Medicaid benefits to the annual upward adjustments in life expectancy. AARP members complain loudly and use the latest social media tools to bolster their cause but younger more tech-savvy voters use new and even more effective data mining tools to out-organizer the “geezer geeks.”
2016: In the face of the growing environmental costs of producing, processing, shipping, packaging and storing meat, the FDA approves lab-grown pork for the commercial marketplace. PETA applauds the move but Greenpeace vows to fight the growing trend and labels lab-grown meat as “Frankenfood II.” By this time in the decade, a major biological attack will have occurred somewhere in the developed world and a number of democratic governments will have responded by limiting personal freedoms in exchange for greater security. (Advances in predictive algorithms; data mining; and face and voice recognition; cheap camera; and sensor technology will make security technology very effective.)
2017: Time Magazine will be in serious discussions about ending the print version of its magazine and will name “The Robot” as its 2017 “Person of the Year.” Space flight—at least into the outer atmosphere—will become affordable for upper middle class individuals.
2018: Diamonds will no longer be a “girl’s best friend.” The natural diamond market will collapse in the face of the superiority of synthetic diamonds. On a different note, startling progress in the field of tissue regeneration will have eliminated organ shortages and made organ donations as irrelevant as radiation therapy.
2019: The decade will be come to be referred to as “the turbulent teens” due to the growing maturity of such countries as India and Brazil; the wide-spread economic disruption wrought by technological advancement; and a renewed sense of optimism due to the fact that so many things once deemed “impossible” are now coming to fruition.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
12 Months of Jumping the Curve
Dear Readers:
I will be on vacation in Mexico with my family until Monday, January 4th, 2010. Posted below are the past 12 editions of my monthly newsletter, The Exponential Executive for your reading pleasure. Each edition has plenty of provocative fodder for your brain. Enjoy! (If you wish to receive my monthly newsletter, please send me an email at jack@nanoveritas.com.)
December 2009: The Exponential Executive
November 2009: The Exponential Executive
October 2009: The Exponential Executive
September 2009: The Exponential Executive
August 2009: The Exponential Executive
July 2009: The Exponential Executive
June 2009: The Exponential Executive
May 2009: The Exponential Executive
April 2009: The Exponential Executive
March 2009: The Exponential Executive
February 2009: The Exponential Executive
January 2009: The Exponential Executive
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Futurist Jack Uldrich’s Predictions for 2010
#1: By the end of 2010, one-third of all automotive ads will focus exclusively on software-driven features that emphasize future car’s ability to interpret, react and connect to the external environment. Far less emphasis will be placed on car’s physical appearance and performance.
#2: One 4-year college will decrease its tuition by more than 5% in 2010 citing growing pressure from online universities; 10 universities will follow Princeton’s lead and begin distributing e-Books (such as the Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader) to incoming students; and at least 100 other colleges and universities will follow Boston University’s lead in eliminating email addresses for incoming freshmen.
#3: The sale of solar cells will grow faster than expected due to innovations in new financing models that minimize or eliminate altogether the large up-front costs currently associated with installing solar modules.
#4: The first fully robotic vehicle will become operational in Iraq and Afghanistan and will successfully deliver military supplies more than 25 miles without the aid of any humans.
#5: A socially-networked song in which none of the band members knew one another prior to the song’s release will become a Billboard Top Ten hit. The band will attempt to conduct a conventional tour but will soon breakup citing “artistic differences.” The real cause: they find they just don’t like one another.
#6:The first cyborg soldier—with above average human capabilities in terms of strength, speed and/or vision—will return to active duty. Nicknamed “Steve Austin” by his fellow soldiers; the technology inside “the bionic man” (or bionic woman) will cost far less than 6 million dollars.
#7: An amateur scientist using cheap supercomputers accessed through “the cloud” will make a major scientific discovery. Her discovery will have initially been dismissed by peer-reviewed journals but hailed by the growing number of “open-science” advocates.
#8: A full two years before its first-ever “Space Tourism” launch, Galactic Suite Ltd will lower the price of its three-day trip to space from $4.4 million to $2 million.
#9: A physician in India will perform a prostectonomy on a patient in a different country using only a high-speed Internet connection and da Vinci robotic surgical device. The “medical tourist” in Sri Lanka will return to the United States the following day.
#10: A new iPhone app will be created which overlays a “Nascar-like” suit over the images of Congressmen and other prominent politicians to reveal from whom they are receiving campaign contributions. The size of the “patch” will vary according to the amount of campaign contributions they have received from the organization. The new app will bring heightened attention to the burgeoning field of augmented reality.
#11: An RFID chip embedded in the arm of an elderly Alzheimer patient will be credited with saving the man from freezing to death after he strolled away from his residence in the middle of the night and became disoriented.
#12: A leading concrete company will call for a ban on carbon dioxide emissions from concrete because its nanotechnology-enable concrete will be certified as a “CO2 neutral.”
#13: Hype surround algae’s promise as the “bio-fuel of the future” will grow hot after a breakthrough in the field of synthetic biology. Environmental advocates, however, will draw parallels between the advent of the “designer bacteria” (which is used to convert algae into fuel) and the creation of genetically modified organisms. The issue of “Frankenbugs” will gain traction in the media.
#14: Mind-control toys will grow from a small niche product in 2009 to the latest “must-have” toy by the 2010 holiday season. The technology will sell very well among kids under the age of 10 and seniors over the age of 65. Interest in brain-neural technology will also be driven by plummeting prices and increased product performance.
#15: Synthetically grown diamonds will make their way into the commercial marketplace but the diamond industry will have no ability to discern the products from “natural” diamonds. The diamond industry will attempt to downplay the significance of the event but will quietly ramp up efforts to regulate and control the creation of synthetic diamonds.
#16: A robotic pet that also serves as a companion, watch dog, vacuum cleaner and a personal healthcare monitor will be unveiled in Japan and marketed to the seniors. Voice recognition technology inside the robot will also be able to detect if a person"s speech is slurring and will connect to a healthcare professional immediately.
#17: The cost of sequencing an individual’s genome will drop to less than $1000. The breakthrough will lead to the creation of a rash of new social networking sites around different genetic dispositions in order to deal with the avalanche of genetic information. Genetic counseling will become one of the fastest growing professions in the coming decade.
#18: The growing sophistication of language translational software (available on such platforms as Google Wave) will cause leading corporations to revisit some job descriptions which currently require candidates to speak two languages. Citing the technology’s ability to facilitate conversations with native speakers, the city of Paris will become an even more popular tourist destination.
#19: A conservative state legislator will introduce legislation prohibiting healthy individuals (i.e. non-injured combat veterans) from using implanted brain-neural technology to control objects outside their body. The bill will die in committee but the author and other supporters vow to make it a campaign issue in 2010.
#20: Technology artisans will begin using inexpensive rapid prototype manufacturing equipment to develop new pieces of art and jewelry of previously unseen sophistication, complexity and beauty. More traditional artisans will ask that “non hand-made” products be banned from local art fairs.
The “Back to the Future” Prediction of 2010: A barefoot runner will win a major marathon and fuel a growing trend among recreational runners to run without shoes.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
One Step Closer to the Minority Report?
The other day, I offered a picture of what the near-term future of police surveillance may look like. Today, I’d like you to consider a somewhat more futuristic vision. In this article, Google explains how quantum algorithms may soon be able to spot cars.
If you combined this future capability with today’s existing technology (together the impending era of super cheap, ubiquitous cameras), it is not difficult to imagine how a government agency might soon be able to not only watch us constantly but also spot any “strange” activity immediately.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Jack Uldrich’s Interview on The Small Business Advocate
Earlier today, I appeared on Jim Blasingame’s nationally-syndicated radio program, The Small Business Advocate, to discuss my predictions for 2010. Below is the full interview:
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Extrapolate Forward: 2010 Predictions from Futurist Jack Uldrich
#1: By the end of 2010, one-third of all automotive ads will focus exclusively on software-driven features that emphasize future car’s ability to interpret, react and connect to the external environment. Far less emphasis will be placed on car’s physical appearance and performance.
#2: One 4-year college will decrease its tuition by more than 5% in 2010 citing growing pressure from online universities; 10 universities will follow Princeton’s lead and begin distributing e-Books (such as the Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader) to incoming students; and at least 100 other colleges and universities will follow Boston University’s lead in eliminating email addresses for incoming freshmen.
#3: The sale of solar cells will grow faster than expected due to innovations in new financing models that minimize or eliminate altogether the large up-front costs currently associated with installing solar modules.
#4: The first fully robotic vehicle will become operational in Iraq and Afghanistan and will successfully deliver military supplies more than 25 miles without the aid of any humans.
#5: A socially-networked song in which none of the band members knew one another prior to the song’s release will become a Billboard Top Ten hit. The band will attempt to conduct a conventional tour but will soon breakup citing “artistic differences.” The real cause: they find they just don’t like one another.
#6:The first cyborg soldier—with above average human capabilities in terms of strength, speed and/or vision—will return to active duty. Nicknamed “Steve Austin” by his fellow soldiers; the technology inside “the bionic man” (or bionic woman) will cost far less than 6 million dollars.
#7: An amateur scientist using cheap supercomputers accessed through “the cloud” will make a major scientific discovery. Her discovery will have initially been dismissed by peer-reviewed journals but hailed by the growing number of “open-science” advocates.
#8: A full two years before its first-ever “Space Tourism” launch, Galactic Suite Ltd will lower the price of its three-day trip to space from $4.4 million to $2 million.
#9: A physician in India will perform a prostectonomy on a patient in a different country using only a high-speed Internet connection and da Vinci robotic surgical device. The “medical tourist” in Sri Lanka will return to the United States the following day.
#10: A new iPhone app will be created which overlays a “Nascar-like” suit over the images of Congressmen and other prominent politicians to reveal from whom they are receiving campaign contributions. The size of the “patch” will vary according to the amount of campaign contributions they have received from the organization. The new app will bring heightened attention to the burgeoning field of augmented reality.
#11: An RFID chip embedded in the arm of an elderly Alzheimer patient will be credited with saving the man from freezing to death after he strolled away from his residence in the middle of the night and became disoriented.
#12: A leading concrete company will call for a ban on carbon dioxide emissions from concrete because its nanotechnology-enable concrete will be certified as a “CO2 neutral.”
#13: Hype surround algae’s promise as the “bio-fuel of the future” will grow hot after a breakthrough in the field of synthetic biology. Environmental advocates, however, will draw parallels between the advent of the “designer bacteria” (which is used to convert algae into fuel) and the creation of genetically modified organisms. The issue of “Frankenbugs” will gain traction in the media.
#14: Mind-control toys will grow from a small niche product in 2009 to the latest “must-have” toy by the 2010 holiday season. The technology will sell very well among kids under the age of 10 and seniors over the age of 65. Interest in brain-neural technology will also be driven by plummeting prices and increased product performance.
#15: Synthetically grown diamonds will make their way into the commercial marketplace but the diamond industry will have no ability to discern the products from “natural” diamonds. The diamond industry will attempt to downplay the significance of the event but will quietly ramp up efforts to regulate and control the creation of synthetic diamonds.
#16: A robotic pet that also serves as a companion, watch dog, vacuum cleaner and a personal healthcare monitor will be unveiled in Japan and marketed to the seniors. Voice recognition technology inside the robot will also be able to detect if a person"s speech is slurring and will connect to a healthcare professional immediately.
#17: The cost of sequencing an individual’s genome will drop to less than $1000. The breakthrough will lead to the creation of a rash of new social networking sites around different genetic dispositions in order to deal with the avalanche of genetic information. Genetic counseling will become one of the fastest growing professions in the coming decade.
#18: The growing sophistication of language translational software (available on such platforms as Google Wave) will cause leading corporations to revisit some job descriptions which currently require candidates to speak two languages. Citing the technology’s ability to facilitate conversations with native speakers, the city of Paris will become an even more popular tourist destination.
#19: A conservative state legislator will introduce legislation prohibiting healthy individuals (i.e. non-injured combat veterans) from using implanted brain-neural technology to control objects outside their body. The bill will die in committee but the author and other supporters vow to make it a campaign issue in 2010.
#20: Technology artisans will begin using inexpensive rapid prototype manufacturing equipment to develop new pieces of art and jewelry of previously unseen sophistication, complexity and beauty. More traditional artisans will ask that “non hand-made” products be banned from local art fairs.
The “Back to the Future” Prediction of 2010: A barefoot runner will win a major marathon and fuel a growing trend among recreational runners to run without shoes.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Speaker Ray Kurzweil vs Jack Uldrich: Leading Futurists
In my business as a professional futurist and keynote speaker, my message is often compared to that of Ray Kurzweil’s—the noted inventor, author and futurist. And, to be honest, much of my thinking about the future has been influenced by Kurzweil. Nevertheless, in terms of style, how we deliver our respective messages about the accelerating pace of change are fundamentally different.
I have posted video samples of both of our work below but the difference can best be summed up by the idea that while Kurzweil focuses almost exclusively on technological trends, I focus more on how to help businesses and organizations think differently about the future.
To do this, I rely heavily on analogies and stories. I also spend more time outlining the skills—such as unlearning, becoming aware of “Black Swans,” ”Thinking Like a Child,” and ”Doing the Impossible”—which organizations will need in order to navigate tomorrow’s accelerating future.
Therefore, depending upon which type of futurist and keynote speaker your organization is looking for, you can either contact Ray’s speaker bureau or mine.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
A Future of Black Swans … or Unlearning the Future
”Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu
This famous quote was uttered over 2500 years ago and may strike some people as odd that, as a professional futurist, I have chosen to highlight it.
My rationale is two-fold. First, as I have said many times before, the chief responsibility of a futurist is not to “predict” the future but rather outline a range of future possibilities. Second, and more important, I have highlighted the quote because it is true.
If you have not already read Nassim Taleb’s outstanding book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, do so as soon as possible. On Page 177 of the book, Taleb has an illustration of the scattering effect which artfully explains why predicting the future—especially for longer time frames—is virtually impossible.
Because I can’t reprint the figure here, I am left with Taleb’s analogy for understanding the scattering effect: the prediction of a billiard ball.
Assuming one has knowledge of the location of every ball and the speed and accuracy of the cue ball, it is relatively easy to predict the expected movement of the ball after the first shot. A person might even expect that second, third and fourth degree movements can be estimated with great accuracy due to the growing computational power of computers. The problem, however, grows increasingly complex with each subsequent movement. This is because after the ninth movement the gravitational pull of a person standing at the next pool table exerts enough of an effect to alter the trajectory of the ball. And after 56 movements even the smallest particle on the outer edge of the universe will effect the trajectory!
The bottom line is this: There are simply too many factors to consider when contemplating the future 20, 30, 50 or 100 years out. (Even a small effect today can have outsized implications 50 years hence). The situation, of course, becomes even more complicated because of Taleb’s main thesis which is that “Black Swans”—described as “high impact, low probability” events—tend to shape the future more than “expected” trends.
Therefore, whether a future “Black Swan” takes the shape of a pandemic, an asteroid, an E-bomb, a rogue terrorist attack, a North Korean or Iranian nuclear attack, an unexpected breakthrough in quantum computing or synthetic biology, or, more likely, some “unknown unknown;” the future will be difficult too predict because we don’t have—and won’t ever have—enough knowledge about the future.
Related Posts
The Future Requires Unlearning
Unlearning the Future
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Jack Uldrich Videos
To help potential speaking clients better understand how I present complex information in an insightful, entertaining and informative manner, I have compiled a series of recent video samples. Enjoy ... and have a wonderful weekend!
Jack Uldrich
The Future of Manufacturing
“If you’re in the manufacturing business and you’re not worried, really concerned about what the future will do to your company, you’re not really cognizant of what’s going to be coming down the pike.” Peter Diamandis, Co-founder of Singularity University
I love the above quote. It is a message that I constantly emphasis with my corporate clients and it is why I recently put together this short 4-minute video explaining why business leaders need to unlearn their worldview. For additional information on how fast the manufacturing world is changing, I refer you to the articles below.
Related Posts
Robots: A Major Game Changer
15 Ways Nanotechnology is Making Your Life Better Today
3-D Printing the Shape of Things to Come
The Future Lays in Convergence
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Insuring the Future
A few months back while I was flying all across the country from Hawaii to Wichita to Atlanta giving presentations on nanotechnology, genomics and robotics to a variety of different industry associations, I had the opportunity to read Peter Bernstein’s best-selling book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.
Although it was written in 1996, I highly recommend it for anyone seriously interested in contemplating the future. This is because—for better or worse—the future will largely be determined by the insurance industry’s ability to understand—and thus underwrite—the future of various technologies.
For example, while I am personally optimistic about nanotechnology’s ability to create everything from scratch-resistant car panels to tailor-made drug delivery vehicles capable of killing cancer cells at an early stage, these products will not be commercially mass-produced until the insurance industry understands the environmental and health-related risks associated with new nanomaterials and nanoparticles.
Similarly, RFID (radio frequency identification) technology and nanosensors have the ability to create a host of wonderful applications. But until the insurance industry can adequately assess the potential dangers of how prolonged exposure to wireless technologies might impact people, the RFID industry could advance at a much slower pace than many people (including industry experts) expect.
The same is true for the rapidly emerging fields of synthetic biology and robotics. I have written before about the amazing potential of each to transform the energy, agriculture and automotive industries, but these things won’t happen until regulators and insurance professionals are comfortable insuring these technologies. For instance, while Craig Venter (a leader in the field of synthetic biology) is quick to dismiss the potential of some new artificial life form or “designer bacteria” escaping from his laboratory and wreaking havoc on an unsuspecting public, I’m not as confident the insurance industry will be as quick to dismiss the risk.
Regarding robotics, while it is easy to forecast that robotics will grow into a $50 billion industry within the decade—as Bill Gates has done—the figure could drop to a fraction of that amount if an iRobot PackBot goes haywire over in Iraq and inadvertently kills six soldiers or if a self-driven robotic car created by General Motors or Ford runs over a pedestrian.
Such events often cast a new—and less flattering—light on a promising new technology and can bring the industry (and its future hopes) into the cross-sights of the legal profession. As a historical example, recall that at the beginning of the 20th century asbestos was hailed as a wonder material for its amazing insulating and fire-retardancy properties. Today, we hold a decidedly different—and less positive—view of asbestos.
It is not my contention that the insurance industry will slow down all emerging technologies. In fact, in some instances, just the opposite might occur—the industry might facilitate the adoption of certain new technological advances.
For example, in spite of genomics incredible potential to violently disrupt the insurance industry’s business model of pooling risk, it is possible the insurance industry will facilitate the adoption of genetic testing by mandating that patients for certain diseases be genetically tested prior to the administration of any new drug in order to make sure that that drug will work effectively on the patient.
The same holds true for RFID technology. It could soon be determined that the cost of embedding sensors and RFID chips into bridges, cars, buildings and a host of other products greatly enhances safety and performance. If so, regulation could work in favor to these technologies by getting them mandated for certain applications.
If it seems as though I am speaking out of both sides of my both (i.e. that the insurance industry might either hamper or help RFID and other technologies) that is because I am. As F. Scott Fitzgerald once said, “The test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two diametrically opposed ideas in your head at the same time.”
It is a concept that all people interested in the future should adopt because professionals in the insurance industry are schooled in this very idea and they calculate not just the benefits of future technologies but also its potential risks and costs. And where the industry comes out in these calculations will, to a large degree, determine which technologies shape our future.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
I See a Promising Future for Stem Cell Therapy
This two-minute video from the UK offers promising evidence that stem cell therapy may soon help people with a variety of eye-sight problems:
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Did You Know … You Have to Jump the Curve
This 5-minute video entitled “Did You Know” has been around in various forms for a few years, but it still serves as an excellent reminders to why organizations must learn to “jump the curve:”
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Future of Supply Chain Management
This past weekend I finished reading “Flowers for Algernon”—which was made into the 1968 movie “Charly” with Cliff Robertson. The basic premise of the book is that a retarded man undergoes an experiment and it provides him with superior intelligence for a short period of time.
At one point near the height of his intelligence Charly writes: “Strange about learning; the farther I go the more I see that I never knew even existed. A short while ago I foolishly thought I could learn everything--all the knowledge in the world. Now I hope only to be able to know of its existence, and to understand one grain of it.”
I am in the midst of preparing for a keynote presentation on “the future of supply chain management” and I was reminded of the passage because I stumbled across this front page article in today’s Wall Street Journal entitled ”Clarity is Missing Link in Supply Chain.”
I especially liked this quote from one executive who said when dealing with wildly inaccurate forecasts, “You actually had to pick a number with no knowledge whatsoever, because nobody knows anything.” (The emphasis is mine—nobody knows anything!")
The quote highlights to me the need for professionals in the supply chain management business to—like Charly—first acknowledge how little they actually know. Once they do this they then at least open themselves up to the possibility for both the incremental and the radical advances that might benefit their profession.
Related Posts
Here Soon, Technology That Will Dramatically Impact the Supply Chain
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
May 15, 2009 Jump the Curve: Beware of Emerging Technologies
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Will Wolfram Alpha Jump the Curve?
At 7pm (Central Standard Time) tonight, a new type of search engine—called Wolfram Alpha -- will go live. There is still much that can go wrong with the program but, personally, I am very excited about the project and believe it heralds yet another step down the inevitable path toward artificial intelligence. All I can say is stay tuned. (Below is a 5-minute video explaining tonight’s venture.)
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Future of the Airline Industry
A few months back, Freakonomics had an interesting post entitled ”What Will U.S. Air Travel Look Like in Ten Years.” The post had some helpful insights from industry experts such as Clifford Winston, Richard Branson and Josh Marks, but few of these insiders looked at the issue through the lens of emerging technologies.
Let me then offer my thoughts on how the industry will change in the decade ahead. For starters, advances in RFID technology will have greatly reduced—if not altogether—eliminated lost bags. Recall that last year, IBM announced it was partnering with Schiphiol Airport in Amsterdam to begin tracking baggage through that airport using RFID technology. By the end of 2009, IBM is hoping to trace all 70 million pieces of luggage that flow through the airport. Given the competitive nature of the airline industry and the high cost of lost baggage, I expect every major airport in the world to have implemented RFID technology by 2017.
Second, while it is impossible to predict how effective labor unions will be in protecting the jobs of thousands of TSA workers, I think there is an excellent chance that consumers will have a much shorter delay when entering the airport of 2017 due to new advances in molecular diagnostics, facial recognition technology, Iris identification and nanosensors. These technologies should allow a limited number of security personnel to efficiently and securely oversee the screening of the millions of passengers that pass through the airport each day by rapidly and accurately detecting the presense of any harmful weapon or dangerous chemical or biological contaminant.
Third, I expect airplanes to become even more crowded as the airlines use improved algorithms to actively sell empty seats to passengers. As America ages, many Baby Boomers will have extra time on their hand and the airlines, by knowing more about each customer (such as knowing that your Uncle Freddy likes to go to Las Vegas) will be able to entice him on short notice to catch the flight for $79.
Directly related to this trend is the fourth trend or what I call hyper-information. Websites such as Farecast are already doing a good job of telling consumers if they should buy a ticket to Paris today or wait until closer to Christmas in order to get a better deal, but as a result of exponential advances in information processing technology, data storage and algorithms these sites are only going to get better. More perfect information will lead to a more efficient allocation of resources and a continuation of razor thin margins for the industry. In short, look for more bankruptcies and mergers as the weak are herded out.
Trend #5: Biofuels will alleviate some of the price and environmental pressures the industry is facing over rising fuel costs. Look for companies such as Imperium Renewables and others to develop environmentally-friendly biofuels for jets. It is even possible that advances in synthetic biology will have lead to companies such as Synthetic Genomics driving the price of jet fuel down signficantly.
Trend #6: This one will still likely be small, but I expect that a number of planes will have only one pilot by 2017. Advances in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and drones—which will have risen exponentially in military use—will have begun to make their way into the commercial airline industry by this time. Airline companies looking to cut costs will realize that it no longer makes economic sense to have two or three pilots per plane.
Finally, a portion of the regional air traffic (e.g. trips less than 300 miles) will be siphoned off by advances being made in the field of flying cars such as I wrote about here. While the vision of being able to take-off straight from your house likely won’t be possible by 2017, I do believe a limited number of well-to-do consumers will be able to drive to smaller regional airports and fly their cars to other regional airports that are in close proximity to their final destination. (For a video of this technology check out this recent post.)
Related Posts
Move Over George Jettson
Dude, Where’s My Flying Car
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Develop a Future Bias
In my 2008 book, Jump the Curve, I make the case that one strategy for “jumping the curve” and helping your organization innovate into the future is to “develop a future bias.”
A future bias is the opposite of “hindsight bias” and hindsight bias is, quite simply, the idea that after an event occurs most people take credit for believing that the idea was pre-ordained and that they knew it would happen. For instance, by 1920, most citizens claimed they knew that man would “always” fly.
Unfortunately, this isn’t true. Most people were completely blind-sided by human flight. Lord Kelvin, the world’s most renowned scientist claimed in 1899 that “Heavier than air machines are impossible,” and no less an authority than the New York Times wrote in an editorial in December 1903—just two weeks before the Wright Brother’s historic first flight—that human flight would not be achievable for “1 to 10 million years.” My guess is that if a poll had been commissioned at the beginning of the turn of the 20th century the overwhelming consensus among the American public would have subscribed to similar opinions or, alternatively, something along the lines of “If God had intended man to fly, He would have given him wings.”
In the future, as a result of exponential advances in technology, many things that sound impossible today are, in fact, not only going to be possible they are going to be commonplace. Therefore, in order to embrace this future, it will be necessary to think exponentially—and not linearly—about the future. As Ray Kurzweil says in his book, The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, in the 21st century humanity will experience the equivalent of 20,000 years of change (using the 20th century’s rate of change). What he is trying to do in an indirect way is to get people to develop a future bias.
I recently came across this photo on Digg.com that shows the world as it is expected to look in 250 million years.
I think it offers a wonderful metaphor for thinking about tomorrow’s world because tomorrow will be radically different from today. Therefore, one of the first steps a leader must take in preparing him or herself to lead an organization into the future, is to develop a future bias. To do so, it first helps if that leader can envision a world that will look radically different. Therfore, when thinking about the future, I would encourage the “Exponential Executive” to keep the above picture always in mind.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Long-Term Care’s Robotic Future
Later this week, I will be giving a keynote presentation to the Wisconsin Association of Homes and Services for the Aging. In addition to these two trends which I discussed a few weeks ago, another big trend I will be highlighting is the growing popularity of robotic pets. This six-minute video from Japan offers a glimpse into the future.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
A Glimpse into the Future
The future is difficult—if not impossible—to predict. One reason is because technologies converge into another and often spin out in different directions. Below are a series of short videos covering advances in haptic technologies, facial amination, robotics, nanotechnology, rapid prototype manufacturing and voiceless communication (i.e. brain-computer interfaces). Now, start “mixing and matching” these technologies in your mind. If you do, I think you’ll get at least a small glimpse of how different the future is going to look.
g-speak overview 1828121108 from john underkoffler on Vimeo.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Future of Aging
Early next month, I will be giving a presentation to the Wisconsin Association of Homes and Services for the Aging entitled “Jump the Curve to a New Future: 38 Ways Long-Term Care and Senior Housing Will Be Transformed in the Coming Decade.”
As a sort of preview of the presentation, I’d like to share two trends that were in the news this week. The first is that in the near future the bones of seniors will be much stronger than they are today thanks to new bone-boosting drugs now reaching the market.
The second, and somewhat related trend, is that those seniors who no longer can walk will soon be assisted by “wearable” robotics as this video amply demonstrates:
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Exponential Banking Executive
(Editor’s note: The following article was recently written, along with Kendall Colman, for the Colorado Banking Association.)
We both have young daughters. As a way of imparting financial wisdom on them at an early age, we asked both of them after they lost their first tooth which they would rather receive from the tooth fairy: $1 per tooth or a penny for their first tooth and then double the amount for each successive tooth. After we informed that all children have 20 baby teeth, they both readily opted for the $20 option.
It was a costly mistake because their twentieth tooth would have been worth $5242.88! Such is the power of exponential growth.
The lesson, which is a familiar one to many in the banking industry, is more relevant than ever because society is poised to enter what we call the “exponential economy.” There are a number of technological forces, including computer semiconductors, Internet bandwidth, and data storage capacity, which are doubling anywhere from every 6 to 12 months. Moreover, they are expected to continue doubling for at least the next decade.
Another interesting fact about exponential growth is that anything that doubles just ten times is a thousand times bigger than it was at the beginning.
This recognition requires today’s banking executives to become what we call “Exponential Executives.” That is leaders who understand that as impressive as past technological advances have been—the ATM, online banking and mobile banking, etc—they are just the beginning.
Banking interactions will continue to evolve as customers’ physical and virtual worlds become intertwined, and social networks and mobile platforms will transform customers’ banking experiences and expectations. Still other advances will create an environment where a premium is placed on unconventional thinking and risk-taking.
As we enter the exponential economy there are five skills which will help the Exponential Banking Executive navigate through these turbulent and uncharted waters.
#1 Partnering: The first doubling in exponential growth is always from 1 to 2. The same principal is at work for the Exponential Executive as they head out into a future that seems almost unknowable. Yet if one thinks about this idea of “going out into the unknown” it is not much different than what Lewis and Clark experienced 200 years as they began their exploration of the American West.
Think about it for a moment. How do you prepare for a journey in which you have no idea of what you might encounter; how long you will be gone; or even what skills you will need?
Not surprisingly, the first decision Meriwether Lewis made was to invite William Clark to become his co-leader.
Tomorrow’s banking environment is going to be equally complex and to survive it may be essential to bring on a co-equal who has skills and expertise in areas where you are less strong. This model of co-leadership is one CO-CEO’s John Addison and Rich Williams have applied at Primerica Financial Services for years.
#2 Jump the Curve: In 1996, Reed Hastings wanted to start a new business that sent movie videos through the mail. At the time, his business model didn’t work because VHS cassettes were prone to breaking and too heavy to send through the mail at an economical cost. Hastings, however, understood something his peers didn’t. He knew data storage was doubling every six months and that by 1999 the movie industry was likely to convert all movie rentals to a DVD format. In essence, Hastings looked at where the curve of technology was headed and began planning his move years in advance.
If one applies this same insight to many of today’s accelerating technologies, such as biotechnology, genomics, stem cell research and nanotechnology, it is clear that most demographers’ life expectancy predictions will be well off the mark. Barring a major disaster, I fully expect life expectancies will soon reach 80 and shortly thereafter 90—and, perhaps, even higher. The Exponential Banking Executive’ should be “jumping the curve” and preparing for this contingency today by developing products, services and tools that will serve this growing population.
#3 Embrace Ambiguity. There is the old saying that if something looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it must be a duck. The picture below is a duck, correct? Look again. When viewed from a different perspective it is also a rabbit.
The future must be viewed through the same lens of ambiguity. There is no question that the banking industry is in the midst of a severe crisis. But just as the Chinese character for the word “crisis” is comprised of the symbols for “danger” and “opportunity” so too is this present crisis also an opportunity.
The Exponential Executive faces the same reality as his or her peers, the difference is that he or she uses the situation to revisit old assumptions and fundamentally rethink how to do business in order to best serve their customers.
#4 Unlearn: Among the many trends that are doubling perhaps none is quite as astounding as the fact that scientific and technical knowledge is doubling every seven years. In other words, as impressive as everything we know today is, this knowledge will only equal half of what we will know in seven years—and just 25% of what we will know in 14 years!
From this perspective, it makes sense to think of today’s knowledge as the tip of the iceberg. Future knowledge is the equivalent of that portion of the iceberg that is presently underwater. As this new knowledge emerges over the coming years, one of the more difficult realities to accept is that it will make some existing knowledge obsolete. To prosper in the future then the Exponential Banking Executive must understand that unlearning will be just as critical as learning.
For example, as new wireless and virtual realities technologies become more prevalent how many branch offices will really be needed? And, if people are living significantly longer, are 15 and 30 year mortgages the most appropriate terms? Change is never easy but if one embraces “unlearning” the rationale for change becomes easier to accept.
#5 Believe in Doing the Impossible: Just over one hundred years ago the idea of human flight was dismissed as the pipedream of a small group of fringe scientists and hobbyists. Fifty years the idea of a “test-tube baby” was similarly deemed impossible. And just ten years ago the idea that people working for free could design and write an encyclopedia which was as accurate as the Encyclopedia Britannica but be twice the size (and doubling every year) and available in a 140 different languages would have been dismissed as implausible. Wikipedia, of course, is a reality today.
If the future teaches us anything it is that the impossible has a way of becoming possible. The Exponential Banking Executive understands this reality and by partnering, jumping the curve, embracing ambiguity and unlearning, they are willing to accept that the path into the future will always be murky; but they also know they possess the tools and flexibility to help shape and create their own future.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Follow the Future and Win a New Amazon Kindle 2
Dear Readers: From April 5 through April 12, I will be on vacation. During that time I will not be blogging. I will, however, continue to Twitter. As an enticement to encourage you to follow my tweets at twitter.com/jumpthecurve, I am offering you a chance to new a win Amazon Kindle 2. The full details are below.)
As someone who focuses on the future professionally, one might accuse me of missing the bus and not being more hip to Twitter sooner than I was. (I didn’t begin Twittering until January 2009.) I plead guilty to the charge and will offer no lame excuses.
After Twittering for a month and then reading this illuminating piece in Techcrunch, the business and social value of Twitter has become clearer to me. Therefore, in an effort to make up for lost time and increase my number of followers, I have decided to heed my own advice on the value of prizes as well as that of uber-Twitter Kevin Rose’s on the wisdom of starting a contest as a method of increasing one’s followers. (See tactic #7)
More specifically, I have decided to offer a new Amazon Kindle 2 to a randomly selected follower once I attain 5000 followers. There is nothing inherently magical about 5000 followers, I just felt it was an ambitious yet attainable goal. (Here’s a list of 10 reasons you—or may not—want a new Kindle 2.)
If you are reading this posting for the first time, I would greatly appreciate it if you would tweet this offer to your followers. If you have stumbled across this post due to Twitter, I’d sincerely appreciate it if you would consider retweeting it. Don’t know what either Twitter or a retweet is? Just click on the associated link.
The reason I have chosen a Kindle as the prize is because it is symbolic of the work I do as a business/technology forecaster and public speaker—in that I help organizations discern (or “read") the future. All of my tweets are geared toward this end. Thus, if you have even the slightest interest in the future—and I sincerely hope you do because it is, after all, where all of us will spend our remaining time on this planet—I’m confident you’ll find value in following me. Also, I’m happy to follow you back—especially if you’ve got some interesting, informative, innovative, insightful or just plain entertaining to say.
To ensure that I really do offer a new Kindle, I will conduct a live drawing on LiveCast and announce the winner’s name and then later post the recording of the event to my YouTube account. (Note: In the interest of fairness, my current followers will also be eligible to win as it wouldn’t be fair to unnecessarily penalize them just because they began following me early.)
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
You Are The Future .. So Act Like It!
With apologies to Timbuk 3, sometimes ”the future is so bright, I’ve got to wear shades.” I’m positively optimistic about the future—and so should you.
Before I explain why let me say that, like many of you, I’m not immune to the economic downturn. My speaking engagements are off for the year and I recently had a publisher renege on a signed book deal.
I remain optimistic, however, because I realize the future doesn’t just happen to us. It is not the economy; a lack of money; technology; President Obama or any host of other factors that ultimately determine our future. The future is created by—drum-roll, please—us!
We are not passive bystanders to the future. We are active participants and it is through our actions that the future is ultimately created.
If you’re looking for some perspective and a good laugh watch this hilarious 4-minute video clip of the comedian Louis CK on the Conan O’Brien Show explaining why ”Everything is Amazing, and Nobody is Happy.” For a more inspirational video I recommend this 12-minute presentation by Ulei Gegenschatz. It is a tribute to the human spirit and a testament to the heights we can soar to (literally) when we have the capacity to dream and the courage to act.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Building and Construction Industry’s New Reality
Yesterday, I was working with a client in the buildings and trade industry as they were preparing for a strategic planning session with a group of their senior executives. I reminded them that they needed to face a new reality -- one that is separate from the current economic crisis.
As technology continues to evolve, society—due to advances in everything from biotechnology to stem cell research—will grow older. As such, residential builders need to seriously think through the needs of their future consumers. It is a mistake to think that the future needs of seniors will be the same as seniors today. In the near future, people living to 85, 90 and even 100 (and beyond) will be healthier and stronger than their counterparts today.
They are, however, just as likely to live on fixed incomes. So what does this mean? For starters, it will mean that they want to be protected from fluctuating energy costs. As a result, homes will need to integrate advanced solar cells, smaller “roof-top” wind turbines, energy-efficient nanomaterials, and smart meters.
Seniors will also want to maintain their independence, so builders will need to think through how advanced sensors, RFID technology, robotics and new multi-touch sensors will enable and foster self-sufficiency.
The current climate is tough and better days are ahead for the industry. Nevertheless, the industry will face new challenges in the future and the time to be thinking about those challenges (which are also opportunities) is now.
Related Posts
The Future of Construction is Three-Dimensional
Printing the House of the Future
Concrete’s Solid Future
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Innovation, Not Regulation: Jack’s Interview on The Small Business Advocate
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Futurist Jack Uldrich Offers Compelling, Entertaining Keynotes
To help potential speaking clients better understand how I present complex information in an insightful, entertaining and informative manner, I have compiled a series of recent video samples. If you are interested in booking me for your next conference, seminar or event, please contact any of the following speakers bureaus: Leading Authorities, International Speakers Bureau, The Executive Speakers Bureau, Convention Connection, Brooks International or Five Star Speakers.
Jump the Curve Strategy #12: Think Small, Very Small
The term nanotechnology often brings to mind Star Trek episodes or conjures up futuristic images of nanobots patrolling our bloodstream in search of deadly cancer cells. While such nanobot-like devices are, in fact, under development, the reality of nanotechnology is, for the time being, slightly more prosaic. The profits it is producing, though, are not, and a number of companies are employing nanotechnology to “walk the escalator” today.
Nano-Tex, a manufacturer of nanofibers, has been treating, among other things, the pants of Eddie Bauer, Lee Jeans, and Perry Ellis for almost four years now. The company’s nano-whiskers, as they are called, infuse the pants with amazing stain-resistant properties. Since 2004, when it treated 20 million pair of pants, the company has now increased that total to an estimated 100 million enhanced-garments.
Nano-Tex and other companies are also treating upholstery and carpeting with nanoparticles, and hotel and restaurant chains are using these fabrics to reduce cleaning bills and limit the frequency with which they have to replace furniture. According to Wilbur Ross, the owner of Nano-Tex, sales of nano-enhanced textiles will grow from $11 billion in 2007 to $120 billion in 2011.
Another industry using nanotechnology today is the paint and coating industry, which employs nanoparticles to create self-cleaning and scratch-resistant paints. In one interesting example, DuPont has teamed up with a small nanotechnology company, Ecology Coatings, to create something called a “liquid solid.” Because the coating can be applied so thinly and so quickly, it is expected to cut the material and energy-related costs of painting automobiles by 75 percent and 25 percent respectfully. As an added benefit, because the nanoparticles also eliminate the use of industrial solvents, it removes the need for the company to obtain environmental permits and comply with certain costly regulations.
Almost everywhere one turns these days, the advances of nanotechnology can be spotted. In 2005, the Food and Drug Administration approved the first drug using nanoparticles; in 2006 Nanosolar, a company using nanoparticles to manufacture a new thin-film solar cell, broke ground on a massive manufacturing facility; in 2007 IBM and Intel both announced that they would be reformulating their recipe for silicon at the atomic level to improve the speed of existing computer chips by 20 percent while also cutting down on energy consumption by a factor of ten; and last year Nokia announced it intended to employ nanotechnology to make next-generation cellphones.
Exponential Insight
The application of the smallest of sciences can lead to some very big improvements in product performance--and profits. For instance, self-cleaning windows and materials can help a number of companies cut down on maintenance costs, and better-insulating nanomaterials can cut down on a business’s energy consumption. Alternatively, nanotechnology can adversely impact a number of existing businesses. Consider the impact on the dry-cleaning business as billions of garments begin to be coated with stain-resistant nanofibers or the impact of scratch-resistant paints on both the automobile repair business and the insurance industry. If you operate in an industry where the profits are razor thin, the emerging science of the small--nanotechnology--might be able to protect and pad those margins.
Related Posts on Nanotechnology
The Nano Song: A Quicker Primer on Nanotechnology
15 Ways Nanotechnology is Already Making Your Life Better
Nanotechnology & The Future of the Cellphone
Nanotechnology and the Changing Face of the Electric Utility Industry
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
Follow the Future and Win a Kindle 2
(Note: My regular posting for March 13, 2009 is below. If you’ve already read about the contest, you can just jump to my latest “Jump the Curve” strategy here).
As someone who focuses on the future professionally, one might accuse me of missing the bus and not being more hip to Twitter sooner than I was. (I didn’t begin Twittering until January 2009.) I plead guilty to the charge and will offer no lame excuses.
After Twittering for a month and then reading this illuminating piece in Techcrunch, the business and social value of Twitter has become clearer to me. Therefore, in an effort to make up for lost time and increase my number of followers, I have decided to heed my own advice on the value of prizes as well as that of uber-Twitter Kevin Rose’s on the wisdom of starting a contest as a method of increasing one’s followers. (See tactic #7)
More specifically, I have decided to offer a new Amazon Kindle 2 to a randomly selected follower once I attain 5000 followers. There is nothing inherently magical about 5000 followers, I just felt it was an ambitious yet attainable goal. (Here’s a list of 10 reasons you—or may not—want a new Kindle 2.)
If you are reading this posting for the first time, I would greatly appreciate it if you would tweet this offer to your followers. If you have stumbled across this post due to Twitter, I’d sincerely appreciate it if you would consider retweeting it. Don’t know what either Twitter or a retweet is? Just click on the associated link.
The reason I have chosen a Kindle as the prize is because it is symbolic of the work I do as a business/technology forecaster and public speaker—in that I help organizations discern (or “read") the future. All of my tweets are geared toward this end. Thus, if you have even the slightest interest in the future—and I sincerely hope you do because it is, after all, where all of us will spend our remaining time on this planet—I’m confident you’ll find value in following me. Also, I’m happy to follow you back—especially if you’ve got some interesting, informative, innovative, insightful or just plain entertaining to say.
To ensure that I really do offer a new Kindle, I will conduct a live drawing on LiveCast and announce the winner’s name and then later post the recording of the event to my YouTube account. (Note: In the interest of fairness, my current followers will also be eligible to win as it wouldn’t be fair to unnecessarily penalize them just because they began following me early.)
P.S. To the regular readers of Jump the Curve, between now and April 15, 2009, I will be working on updating the 2009 version of my book, Green Investing: A Guide to Making Money through Environment-Friendly Stocks. As a result, I won’t have as much time to devote to my regular blog. To keep your attention, however, I will be publishing the entire version of Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies to Help Your Company Stay Ahead Emerging Technologies online at this site. Each day you can expect at least one new “strategy.” I also invite readers to continue to follow my daily (and hourly) thoughts on the future at twitter.com/jumpthecurve and/or subscribe to my free monthly newsletter, The Exponential Executive.)
I hope you enjoy the book, and I appreciate your patience! Below is the post for today, March 13, 2009.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.
The Big Green Fix
(Dear Readers: This post is a diversion from my typical postings here at jumpthecurve.net, but I feel quite passionately about this issue and would like to bring it to your attention. If you like the idea, I encourage you to become a supporter at www.greenbonds.com).
President Obama’s inaugural speech resonated with Americans of all political stripes and persuasions for a number of reasons. He began by calling for the country to prepare for “a new age” and urged Congress to revisit our old energy policy which serves only to “strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.” Next, he insisted we “roll back the specter of a warming planet” and remake America by creating new industries and jobs that will lay the foundation for future growth. He then concluded by calling all Americans to a “new era of responsibility.”
It was, to be sure, a lot to ask of a nation engaged in two foreign wars and mired in the midst of the worst economic recession in generations. Nevertheless, millions stand ready to heed his call.
The only problem is that there are few vehicles through which average citizens can rise to and accept the president’s challenges. There is, however, one remarkably simple--and yet under-appreciated--tool at our disposal: “Green bonds.”
Similar to the war bonds program of World War II, green bonds would be issued by the U.S. Government for the sole purpose of financing large-scale renewable energy projects—solar farms; geothermal facilities; wave power plants, etc. --as well as small scale projects and products developed by everyday people with high potential for local or regional impact.
The current economic stimulus package addresses renewable energy to a degree, but only a fraction of the estimated $900 billion is directed toward “green” projects. Worse, the stimulus package passes off the hefty burden of paying for these ventures to future generations. In short, it calls upon current citizens to do nothing. This is unacceptable.
Green bonds address both shortcomings. First, the size of the bonding proposal can be tailored but, as a comparison, it is worth noting that half of all Americans purchased war bonds during the 1940s. In total, they raised $187 billion—an amount comparable to $3 trillion in today’s dollars.
The proceeds would be used to finance, through zero or low interest loans, projects and products designed to break our reliance on fossil fuels; curb carbon dioxide emissions; and lessen the need for a large military presence in the Middle East; while, at the same time, offering investors a safe investment alternative.
Moreover, green bonds, which could be priced between $25 and $10,000, have the added benefit of allowing every American, regardless of their financial means, to become an active participant in the building, strengthening and securing of this country’s future.
The government, as it did during the Second World War, would be responsible for paying off the matured bond. Naturally, there would be a price to be paid, but many of the projects will be able to repay the loans and those which are unsuccessful could be financed by re-allocating a portion of the existing stimulus package. Alternatively, it could be argued that direct payouts to the citizen holders of green bonds are more justifiable than offering massive bailouts to the failed industries of the past.
Green Bonds also hold an additional attraction. It has recently been reported that after years of woeful negligence, Americans are saving more money. This is a positive development but, as most economists would tell you, this new found virtue of thrift can be counterproductive if the money isn’t efficiently returned to the economy.
Green bonds have the benefit of serving as a savings vehicle while simultaneously pumping that money back into the economy—but directing it at specific purposes which benefit America’s broader economic, environmental and national security goals.
As President Obama said in his inaugural address, the question we must ask ourselves today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works. He further reminds us that government works best when all of its citizens assume their rightful duties.
Just as our forefathers answered the call at our nation’s beginning, and our grandparents’ generation answered the call during the Second World War, it is now our turn. Green bonds provide every citizen the opportunity to share in the “price and promise of citizenship” and, in the process, create a better tomorrow for future generations.
If you support this idea we ask you to show your support by signing our petition at www.greenbonds.com today. Together, we can take this idea to Washington and begin the task of rebuilding this country anew.
Melanie Sanco is the author of the concept paper “Green Bonds” and coordinates the Office of Resource Development and Innovation for the Minneapolis Public Schools, and Jack Uldrich is the author of Green Investing and the former chair of the Independence Party Party of Minnesota.
Enjoy this post? Bookmark at the following sites.