Global futurist and author Jack Uldrich offers essential strategic information on nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, RFID and many other future technologies to help you prosper as exponential trends converge at this unique moment in history.
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Industries: Agriculture
Robots Advance
Last week, I explained how humans might soon be learning things from robots. Today, I’d like to explain why robots might become a more integral part of life faster than most people expect.
Yesterday, Technology Review published an interesting article entitled: ”Robots Learns to Use Tools.” What is really intriguing about the article, which describes a new robot called the UMass Mobile Manipulator or UMan for short, is that the robot is employing sophisticated algorithms to teach itself how to deal with unfamiliar objects.
One of the major barriers to date with robotics is that programmers have had to write complicated software code to help robots deal with almost every contingency that it might encounter. For example, for a household robot to be effective, it needs to recognize every item that might conceivably be in someone house—everything from a pair of scissors to a flower vase. This is no easy chore.
In the near future, however, robots need not necessarily know how to handle every object; they merely need to learn how to deal with that object in an
appropriate fashion. Using the scissors as example, UMan can study the device and then can tinker with the blades until it understands how they are connected and how the object operates. Presumably, the robot will then know that it would be inappropriate to “run with scissors.”
The implications of self-learning robots could be quite profound—especially if they can learn faster than humans. For instance, if they can recognize and learn how things operate, they might be finally able to practical household servants—ala Rosie the Robot in the Jetson’s. They could also become more practical instruments in the agricultural industry if they can determine between which fruit or vegetable is ready to be picked or whether it needs to stay on the vine a little longer. Similarly, robots will become more effective warriors in battlefield situations if they can rapidly adapt to the enemy’s changing behavior; and there is no reason why they can’t soon be used in a variety of other fields, including the construction industry and the health care industry.
Interested in some other future-related posts about robots? Check out these recent posts:
Learn from Robots
Meet Your Future, Shape-Shiting Robotic Butler
Hospitals Robotic Future
Will Robots Have Tails?
Is the Future of an ATV a Robot
The Robot Will See You Now
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Mars Jumps the Curve
BBC is reporting that Mars, the chocolate company, is planning to decode the genetic structure of the cacao tree. This is an excellent idea.
Recently, almost 60 percent of the Brazilian cocoa crop was wiped out due to a disease called witches. When the company sequences the genome of the cacao tree—which is expected to take five years—researchers may be able to understand the trees DNA and help make crop production not only more resistant to diseases such as witches, but also to pests and even water shortages which could come from a warming climate.
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Agriculture Industry Gets Tagged for RFID Implementation
The government of New Zealand is reportedly planning on tagging all cattle with RFID chips by 2011. The development is a harbinger of things to come for the U.S. agricultural industry. In addition to letting farmers and ranchers track individual cattle by the age, sex and breed, the chips will also allow agri-business to monitor the animal all the way from the farm to your local grocery store.
This tracability will allow consumers to know everything from what anti-biotics the animal was injected with, to whether it was fed with organic feed and raised in a “free-range” environment. The tracibility will also ensure that businesses and governments are quickly able to recall meat in the event of a disease outbreak.
When one further considers how “smart” smart-phones will get in the future, I can easily envision consumers soon using their phones to scan products in the store for information—including genetic information -- before they actually make a purchase.
Related Articles by Jack Uldrich
Agriculture’s High-Tech Future
The Future of Agriculture
The Future of Food is Tiny
Agriculture Sector Looks Good in Genes
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Jack Uldrich Speaks on the Future
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Unlearning the Future
The future is unknowable. There are far too many variables for even the most foresighted individual or powerful supercomputer to accurately forecast what tomorrow—let alone next year or the next decade—will look like with precision. Nevertheless, this fact neither discounts the importance of forecasting, nor does it diminish the work that those individuals (myself included) try to do in discerning what the future might hold in store.
I would, however, like to submit that anyone inclined toward thinking about the future should be open to the idea of unlearning, which I define as “the unique skill of jettisoning old knowledge in order to accomodate newer and more relevant information.”
A case in point is this new study suggesting that global warming may not be worsening hurricanes. Now, before anyone gets too not and bothered by the real or perceived flaws in the study’s methodology, I’d like to make clear that it is not my contention that this study is the final word on the topic. Rather, I simply want to highlight it as an example of how continued advances in the development of better and more sophisticated supercomputers, algorithms and ubiqitous sensors are likely to lead to more situations in the future where scientists and researchers produce results that question and challenge conventional wisdom. (To this point, ever since Hurricane Katrina many people have come to believe that there is a direction connection between global climate change and the frequency and severity of hurricanes, and often this belief has lead them to predict that more hurricanes are in our future.)
The job of forecasters and futurists, however, is to be receptive to contradictory information—especially when it challenges fundamental beliefs or assumptions about the future.
History is littered with examples of yesterday’s dogma being mocked and ridiculed by the next generation. There is no reason to think that many of our most cherished beliefs won’t be similarly mocked and ridiculed in the future.
One way to avoid this fate is to have the courage to “unlearn” things whenever new and compelling information becomes available.
Interested in other posts on the topic of unlearning? Check out these articles:
Unlearning the Tipping Point
Learn to Ask New Questions
Does the Pharmaceutical Industry Need to Unlearn?
Is the Health Care Industry prepared to Unlearn?
Learning to Unlearn: Case Study #1
Examples of Unexponential Thinking
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Is the Future Really Drying Up?
A few months back, the New York Times Magazine ran an article entitled, ”The Future is Drying Up” documenting the growing crisis over water in the western part of America. For the most part, it was a thoughtful and sobering look at a situation that desparately cries out for action. It is hard to argue with the fact that the region’s surging population is putting an enormous amount of pressure on the area’s dwindling water supply. The picture above of Lake Powell, alone, is quite telling.
Nevertheless, the article has a major fault: it barely touches on technology’s ability to help address—and potentially alleviate—this problem. Now, I’m not suggesting that people in the region should count on a quick, technological fix to their situation; but, at the same time, I believe it is silly to not acknowledge how various emerging technologies might help resolve this problem. More specifically, I take offense with the author’s suggestion that to even look at technological solution is, and I quote, “almost certainly the wrong way to think about the situation.”
To my way of thinking this is yet another example of linear thinking -- or what I describe as a view of the world that is almost incapable of understanding how emerging technologies might radically reshape the environment around us.
For example, new advances in sensor technology will help people better monitor their water usage. These same sensors can be used to more accurately price water. If people know both how much water they are using and how much it costs, my prediction is that water usage will decrease.
Secondly, because agriculture is the biggest source of water consumption, I find it troubling that the author didn’t at least acknowledge how new advances in genetically modified corn and wheat might lead to new strains of crops that need little water.
Third, new advances in wind and solar power might drive down the cost of powering desalination plants to the point where some water can be economically shipped from the Pacific Ocean to Arizona and Colorado. Related to this point, new advances in nanotechnology might also improve filtering technology. Again, such advances might make desalination a more viable solution.
Finally, new advances in nanomaterials could lead to some very innovative applications in how people get there water in the future. For instance, this piece explains how researchers are studying how the African beetle can collect water droplets from the air. The implication is that large swaths of the material (which would mimics the beetle’s wing) might capture enough water everynight to fill a bath tub or wash a load of clothes.
Again, I want to make it clear that I am not advocating people take no action to address this serious problem, my point is that when assessing any situation it is important to view the world not just as it is today, but as it will be in 10, 25 and 50 years.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
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Don’t Incrementalize Yourself into the Future
Knowledge, it has been said, is the key to success. It is a statement that is hard to disagree with unless you buy into that old adage that ignorance is bliss. Proceeding on the assumption that if you believed the latter you probably wouldn"t be reading this blog, I will go farther out on a limb and state that for years one of the world’s better recognized fonts of knowledge has been the Encyclopedia Britannica--a reservoir of 30,000-plus pages of information replete with titillating tidbits of data about everything from atoms to zettabytes.
In the late 1990s the revered encyclopedia came under assault from a new form of media distribution--the CD-ROM. Able to store vast amounts of information in a more convenient, colorful, and vivid fashion, Encyclopedia Britannica was forced to deal with this new competitive threat and proceeded in good haste to provide its information in a similarly fresh, snappy, and visually pleasing format.
By 2001 the company was back on its feet and headed down the sweet path of profitability. No sooner, though, had that storm passed when another began forming on the horizon. But just as a hurricane begins with a single molecule and is not immediately discernible, so was this one.
The storm was called Wikipedia, and it started in 2001 with nothing more than 100 encyclopedia-like entries drafted by a few amateurs and posted to a Web site. It seemed innocent enough. After all, how likely was it that a bunch of strangers, working for free, could someday produce an encyclopedia that would rival the esteemed Encyclopedia Britannica in terms of depth, breadth, and accuracy. It sounded about as plausible as a few molecules in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean turning into a Category 5 hurricane.
Yet in late 2005 Wikipedia smashed into the Encyclopedia Britannica. That year the prestigious scientific journal Nature announced after a comprehensive study that the average entry in Wikipedia was nearly as accurate as the typical Encyclopedia Britannica entry.
The advantage is still in Encyclopedia Britannica’s favor, but how much longer will it be able to withstand the gale force winds? The answer: not much. That is because we are now living in a world of exponential advances, and the scales are tipped in Wikipedia’s favor.
To begin, the very subject matter of the encyclopedia, which is to say knowledge itself, is growing exponentially. It has been said that human knowledge is doubling roughly every seven years. This leads to the almost ridiculously sounding (but mathematically verifiable) conclusion that by 2050 everything we know today will represent less than 1 percent of the sum total of the world’s knowledge.
Even if one disagrees with this statement, it is difficult not to acknowledge that radical advances in medicine, physics, chemistry, and biotechnology are changing both the content and value of the material in encyclopedias and that the old print-and-publish method of storing and displaying such information is, if not obsolete, at least impractical.
Neither a printed encyclopedia nor even a CD-ROM can react to this volume of change. Only Wikipedia, by posting information directly to the Internet, can respond in a timely fashion.
Wikipedia also has the advantage in terms of human horsepower. Advances are happening so fast, in so many different fields, that it is virtually impossible for the staff at Encyclopedia Britannica to keep pace. The challenge is not nearly so great for Wikipedia because it doesn’t have a staff. Instead it relies on a self-selected universe of experts and enthusiasts to keep track of all of these developments. (To this end, Wikipedia now has over 7 million entries in 200 different languages.)
Third, Wikipedia has a distinct economic advantage. Not only does it not need to print its material in either book or even CD-ROM format, it doesn’t need to pay an army of researchers and writers or underwrite the cost of housing any physical resources or employees.
The final kicker is this: Even if the Encyclopedia Britannica decides to put all of its content online for free, most people will still go to Wikipedia because its content consistently shows up near the top of most search engines.
What Encyclopedia Britannica is facing is a severe reaction to the exponential economy, but it is not alone. In fact, if history is any guide, a number of other companies, institutions, and organizations will soon be facing a comparable amount of change in the not-too-distant future.
What this means is that in order to survive in the Expoential Economy, we should all heed the words of Kurt Yeager, who once offered this sage advice: ”In periods of profound change, the most dangerous thing is to incrementalize yourself into the future.”
Related Posts
Our Accelerating Future
Dangerous Curves Ahead
Exponential Evolution
A Useful Analogy for Thinking About the Future
Think 10X, Not 10%
Einstein, Intel and All the Rice in China
Do You Believe in the Tooth Fairy
How to Turn 2 Cents into $5.36 Million
Embracing Change
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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What Could Be Better Than Free Money? Try Exponential Growth.
As a result of my new book, I have been asked on a number of occasions to describe what I mean by the title: “jump the curve.”
It is a fair question and when answering it I like to recall the words of that old sage, Albert Einstein, who once said that if a person—especially a scientist or technologist—couldn’t explain what he or she was working on to an 8-year old child then that person was either a fraud or a charlatan.
It’s an excellent test and because I have both an 8 year-old daughter and a 6 year-old son, I decided to put the topic of my new book to this test. Liking a challenge, I decided to see if my youngest child could comprehend the idea of “jumping the curve.”
Without using an example in the book, I asked my son, who has yet to lose any of his teeth, whether he would rather receive a single dollar for every one of his 20 baby teeth or if he would instead prefer to receive a single cent for his first tooth and then have that penny double for the next 19 teeth?
Being fairly good at numbers and knowing that his dad often likes to trick him, my son selected the second option—the penny doubling.
“Smart boy,” I proudly said. “Now, what if the tooth fairy gave you $5 per tooth?” (I was careful to suggest that I was not implying that the tooth fairy would leave him $5.) He pondered his options for a moment and, after calculating his total would come to $100, he selected the $5 option.
I asked him if he was sure and he confidently shook his head in the affirmative. “Well, son,” I replied, “I’m afraid that you have lost out on over $10,000.”
The look on his face was one of incredulousness, and that is precisely why I told him that he had to learn to “jump the curve.” Here’s how the chart reads:
1st tooth: 1 cent
2nd tooth: 2 cents
3rd tooth: 4 cents
4th tooth: 8 cents
5th tooth: 16 cents
6th tooth: 32 cents
7th tooth: 64 cents
8th tooth: $1.28
9th tooth: $2.56
10th tooth: $5.12
11th tooth: $10.24
12th tooth: $20.48
13th tooth: $40.96
14th tooth: $81.92
15th tooth: $163.84
16th tooth: $327.68
17th tooth: $655.36
18th tooth: $1310.72
19th tooth: $2621.44
20th tooth: $5242.88
Total: $10,485.75 ... or more than $500 per tooth!
To explain the concept of “jumping the curve,” I then drew him a graph and said that before a person can profit from any exponential trend he must first understand where that trend. The skill, I noted, “could be as significant as the difference between getting only $5 for a tooth or receiving $500.”
My broader point, of course, was that exponential advances are occuring in a variety of fields, including information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, robotics, brain scanning and even knowledge itself; and if he wanted to position himself for the future he would be wise to internalize this lesson now. The lesson is so important, I’d argue, that it is almost better than free money.
Interested in some other implausible ideas about the future? Check some of these past posts by Jack:
Voiceless Communication: It’s Coming and It’ll Augment Human Intelligence
The Robot Will See You Now
Operate on Yourself
57 Years is Now 41 Days
Death’s Slow Death
Self-Driving Cars
Do the Impossible
Enlarge Our Minds to a Space Elevator
Pong & The Future of the President’s Brain
Could You Really Love a Robot?
Do the Impossible: A Case Study
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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Future Technology & the Ability to Absorb It
I spend a great deal of time documenting how exponential advances in semiconductors, data storage, bandwidth, gene sequencing, brain scanning technology, robotics, algorithms and nanotechnology will fundamentally alter the business environment in the next decade. I am, however, aware of the fact that technology is already outpacing society’s ability to adapt to it. As such, I am always careful to temper client’s enthusiam about how quickly many of today’s emerging technologies will be incorporated into the fabric of our lives. (Frequently, I need to temper my own enthusiam as well).
To this end, I would like to offer this short history lesson which I pulled from Pip Coburn’s informative book, The Change Function: Why Some Technologies Take Off and Others Crash:
-- The first mobile phone in the U.S. was available in 1946.
-- The first video game was played in 1961
-- The first personal computer was built in 1964
-- The first e-mail was sent in 1971.
Some of this slowness is a result of people’s and society’s resistance to change, some of it is due to legal and regulatory issues, sometimes it is a result over legitimate business concerns over the cost and the effectiveness of early versions of the technology. (For example, iRobot’s Roomba vacuum cleaner is a great piece of technology, but many of us have a hard time coughing up $300 when a $5 broom still does a pretty good job.)
Bottom-line: Change does happen, but often it occurs a lot slower than most people generally recognize or appreciate.
P.S. Because I am a fan of thinking counter-intuitively, tomorrow I intend to write a piece that argues just the opposite—that technology adoption is actually speeding up.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
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The Future of Food is Tiny
The famous artist Leonardo da Vinci once offered the following pearl of wisdom: “Study the art of science and the science of art.” It is advice that food scientists have taken to heart in spades. However, as a result of advances in the new emerging field of nanotechnology—which is briefly defined as manipulating atoms at the molecular level in order to make new products—scientists and other food professionals will now be required to apply their understanding of science to a level that is so infinitesimally small that it is hard to grasp. One nanometer is roughly 100,000 times thinner than a human hair.
But to professionals in a field where it is not uncommon that a pinch of a spice or a few extra seconds of heat to an ingredient can make the difference between a good meal and a great one, it will be important to understand that at the nanoscale the weird world of quantum mechanics kicks in and materials and ingredients begin to manifest entirely new characteristics, and it is scientists ability to manipulate these new and enhanced characteristics that lies at the heart of the fields ability to transform virtually every aspect of food. (For a good, short primer, I recommend this recent article describing Nestle’s use of nanotechnology to create foods with optimal stability, nutrient delivery, flavors and aromas.)
A New Shaper Knife
Today, the food scientist must concern him or herself with issues of health and nutrition, good and bad fats, sanitation, packaging and, of course, pairings, aromas, textures, sensations and flavors. The ability to apply modern science to culinary problems in these latter areas has sometimes called ”molecular gastronomy.” Nanotechnology will require culinlogists to take this skill to a new—and smaller—level.
Given nanotechnology’s immense potential, it is not surprising that over half of the top ten food companies in the world, including Campbells, ConAgra, General Mills, H.J. Heinz, Kraft Foods, Nestle, PepsiCo, Sara Lee and Unilever, are all investing heavily in the field. Their reason is simple: they all understand that by manipulating materials, packaging and food stuffs at the molecular level they can teach old food products new tricks. To this end, Cientifica, a European-based nanotechnology research firm, estimates that the value of all food products incorporating nanotechnology will soar 14-fold from $410 million in 2007 to $5.8 billion by 2012.
To many people, though, nanotechnology sounds as if it were still a far-off, fuzzy, futuristic technology. Nothing could be further from the truth. A number of real world nanotechnology-enhanced products are presently on the market and they are being utilized by savvy companies and chefs to gain a competitive advantage. To use a simple and appropriate metaphor, nanotechnology is creating a sharper knife. (In fact, Apollo Diamond has now manufactured a low-cost, high-quality synthetic diamond that could potentially be used to manufacture a sharper, longer-lasting knife.)
At a more immediate level, Honeywell and others have created new nanomaterials that allow packaging to keep food fresher for a longer period of time. By tweaking the molecular structure of the plastic, scientists have created an almost impenetrable barrier through which oxygen molecules cannot navigate.
BASF has created self-cleaning nanomaterials which are being used in both kitchens and in clothing to imbue sinks and uniforms with self-cleaning properties. And a company called Aspen Aerogels has created a new nanomaterial that has eight times the thermal insulation properties of the best material currently on the market. The implication is that if storage and packaging companies begin using the material, their products will be significantly fresher when they ultimately reach the kitchen.
In addition to nanomaterials, nanoparticles are also having a big impact on the food industry. For years, the anti-bacterial properties of silver have been well understood, but when silver is ground into nanoscopic particles these benefits are magnified due to their huge surface-to-area ratio. Some strawberry growers are already using these silver nanoparticles to keep their product free of fungal growth for an extended period of time.
And still another company, OilFresh, has figured out how to employ a new nanoceramic material to keep frying oil fresher. Beyond its immediate money-saving benefit (kitchens use about half as much as oil as they normally do), the device, which only costs $299 and can be easily installed and cleaned, also improves the final quality of the product because the oil stays more uniform throughout the cooking process. It even allows users to switch back-and-forth from seafood to meat without creating any carryover flavor. More importantly, because the device directs oxygen away from the oil and prevents the oil from clumping, it allows users to switch from hydrogenated products to healthier vegetable oils.
Tailored to Your Taste and Touch
As noteworthy as these advances are, the future of the food industry doesn’t simply reside in better packaging, self-cleaning knives, fresher strawberries or even healthier french fries. It rests in creating food that is personalized to the individual user.
To some extent advances in radio frequency identification (RFID) technology and nanosensors are providing people to more information about their food than ever before. For instance, in Japan RFID tags allow consumers to track from which herd and farm a piece of beef came from; to what that cow ate and whether it was administered any antibiotics; down to the date the animal was slaughtered and how long the product was in transit before it finally reached the grocery shelf.
As nanotechnology continues to make RFID tags smaller, better and cheaper, the type and number of products capable of being traced to this level of specificity will increase exponentially. It is even likely that the RFID chips of the future will contain a molecular diagnostic component that can rapidly assess any product for the presence of any disease, including E. coli, salmonella, Listeria or Campylobacter.
Alas, such advances are merely passive in nature. They allow consumers to know a more about their food and make better informed decisions; but such advances still fall well short of the vision of personalized food. Nevertheless, this is where things are headed.
Nutralease, a nanotechnology company in Israel, is now developing and selling nutraceuticals that are embedded directly in food products to deliver improved health results. Nanoparticles of lycopene, which is known to lower the risk of breast and prostate cancer, as well as nanoparticles of phytosterol, which is found in canola oil and is effective in lowering cholesterol, are now being sold to food companies for the express purpose of creating healthier products.
Still other companies are exploring the possibility of using dendrimers, which are synthetic nanoscale devices upon which any number of different molecules can be attached. Think of the nanoscale device as being a super tiny wine rack that contains an almost limitless number of different wines. But instead of just complimenting any meal, each molecule can be made to do something different. For instance, one molecule can imbue a food product with new aroma; another can modify the texture; and a third might deliver a cholesterol-lowering molecule directly to the consumer’s artery.
Longer-term, researchers in the field of nanotechnology are even hoping to develop foods which are personalized to the tastes and health conditions of individual people. The technology would work by wrapping individual molecules with a neutral coating—much like a coated M&M. Only instead of these different coated molecules all doing the same thing, each would perform a different function depending on its color.
The trick, of course, is to get each M&M to perform on cue, and nanotechnology researchers are attempting to address this issue by applying different levels of heat or light to each individually coated molecule prior to consumption such that if a consumer preferred a sweeter taste only the “green” coatings would absolve. If, on the other hand, a person preferred a sour taste, only the “red” coatings would melt away to release their inner content.
Nanotechnologists are even on the verge of figuring out how to release nutraceuticals and drug molecules in the presence of specific health markers. In this way, lycopene nanoparticles might only be triggered if a genetic marker for breast cancer was found or,
