Strategies for innovating into the future:
Global futurist and author Jack Uldrich offers essential strategic information on nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, RFID and many other future technologies to help you prosper as exponential trends converge at this unique moment in history.
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Industries: Education
Futurist Jack Uldrich on Regional Economic Development
Luncheon 2010 - Jack Uldrich from Katie Dye on Vimeo.
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The Future in One Picture
I love this picture. It is a wonderful example of how the future has a way of getting better, faster, smaller and cheaper.
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Helping Businesses Unlearn
As a leader you must nurture an organization that can rapidly adapt. Unlearning can help.
Unlearning can also help you innovate. In fact, unlearning can even assure you and your organization survive.
After years of work, I am pleased to report that I have now developed both a half and a full-day seminar designed to help organizations unlearn—and thus adapt, innovate and survive.
Below is a short 9-minute video overview of the program. If you are interested in how “unlearning” can help your organization, please contact me at jack@unlearning101.com or 612.267.1212.
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Futurist Jack Uldrich Keynotes Conference
In the past year, I have given dozens of keynote presentations to a variety of clients. Below is a short 10-minute speaking demo. If you are looking for an engaging, entertaining and informative keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact either Mimi Hair or Ryan Foltz at Leading Authorities.
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Experiential Leadership Seminar: Into the Unknown with Lewis & Clark
I am pleased to announced that, in partnership with Jeff Appelquist of BlueKnight History Seminars, we have produced a new three-day experiential leadership seminar based on my best-selling book Into the Unknown: Leadership Lessons from Lewis & Clark’s Daring Westward Expedition.
For organizations and corporations looking to take advantage of tomorrow’s unknowable environment and who are interesting in not only discovering their future—but creating it—this is the perfect leadership and training seminar. Below is a short 5-minute video outlining the program:
For more information either contact me at jack@nanoveritas.com or Jeff Appelquist at BlueKnight History Seminars.
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A Million, a Billion, and a Trillion Reasons to Care About the Future
If something doubles just ten times it is one thousand (1024 times to precise) larger. This is an important concept to grasp if you want to better contemplate the future.
Why? Because no fewer than nine technological trends—semiconductors, data storage, bandwidth, genomics, gene sequencing, robotics, nanotechnology, brain scanning and scientific knowledge—are doubling anywhere from every 6 to 18 months.
To put this in some perspective, consider the following examples.
If the military is currently deploying 1000 robots in Afghanistan but the number is doubling every year by 2020 that means there will be one million robots deployed in the country. This will change warfare as we know it.
If Wal-Mart is currently deploying 1 million RFID (radio frequency identification) tags but that number is doubling every year this suggests by 2020 that there will be 1 billion RFID tags deployed. This will fundamentally transform the global supply chain management system.
And if gene sequencing equipment can today translate one billion sequences every few hours (at an estimated cost of $20,000) but the technology is doubling year year, this implies we will be able to translate one trillion genes an hour by 2020. If this comes to pass, sequencing your genome will not only take minutes it will cost pennies on the dollar. Such a change could radically transform how we treat disease and will have profound implications for both the health care and the pharmaceutical industries.
A million, a billion and a trillion might not seem that different (perhaps because they rhyme) but here’s one way to think of the change coming our way:
One million seconds was 12 days ago;
One billion seconds was 32 years ago;
One trillion seconds takes us back to the year 30,000 B.C.
My advice? Buckle up because your future is about to expand in a million, a billion and a trillion different directions.
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Into the Unknown with Lewis & Clark
I will be in Montana for the next few days leading a corporate group “into the unknown” using my 2004 book (Into the Unknown: Leadership Lessons from Lewis & Clark’s Daring Westward Expedition) as a guide. We’ll be visiting Great Falls, The Gates of the Mountains, Three Forks and the Continental Divide. It is amazing how relevant the leadership skills the two captains displayed during their 863-day, 8000-mile journey still are to this day.
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Leadership Lessons from Lewis & Clark
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The Internet is Making Smarter … and Dumber
Two of my favorite writers and thinkers have recently released books. Clay Shirky has written a book entitled Cognitive Surplus: Creativity and Generosity in a Connected Age in which he persuasively argues, among other things, that the Internet is making us smarter because it is allowing society to produce such knowledge accelerators as Wikipedia at virtually no cost.
On the other hand, Nicholas Carr has just released his book, The Shallows: What the Internet is Doing to Our Brains, in which he outlines his thesis for why the Internet is making us dumber. (In a nutshell, Carr convincingly argues that the Internet distracts us and makes prolonged thought more difficult. In the process, the Internet is literally rewiring our brain.)
Over the weekend, the two men outlined their respective arguments in the Wall Street Journal. (Shirky’s argument can be read here and Carr’s here.)
So who is right? Many people will be swayed by various arguments and place themselves firmly on one side of the debate or the other. In my humble opinion, however, both men are right. The world isn’t black or white, it is black and white as well as various shades of gray—all at the same time.
This can be a difficult concept to grasp but as F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote: “The test of a first rate mind is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.”
If you don’t believe this is true, just look at the optical illusion to the right. Does it say “true” or “false” or does it say both at the same time? Once you learn to embrace ambiuity, you will be one step closer to embracing the future.
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Futurist Jack Uldrich to Keynote the MoneyShow
From August 19-21, 2010 I’ll be joining Steve Forbes at the 2010 MoneyShow in San Francisco to discuss how exponential trends in technology will impact your investment portfolio. If you’re in the area, please consider joining us. For more information, click here.
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The Future is Everywhere
Watch this clever video entitled iPad + Velcro. It is a spoof of course but I also believe it offers a hint of what the future will look like. The truth is that people would love to attach their iPad to their wall, dashboard and ceiling. This isn’t practical—yet. However, as flexible electronics become more inexpensive and come to be embedded almost everywhere, I believe people will soon be able to turn their dashboards, walls and ceilings into computer screens.
iPad + Velcro from Jesse Rosten on Vimeo.
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Tic-Tac-Toe: The Future is Unknowable
Take a look at the familiar tic-tac-toe grid to the right. In how many different ways could you make the journey? It is not common for people to guess 27, 81 or even 243. The answer, however, is 362,800. This is because 9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1=362,800. (The actual number of winning or draw games is 255,168. For a more complete explanation click here.) My point is that either number is significantly larger than most people expect.
The same is true when thinking of the future. It is comforting to believe we can predict future with great certainty but as a professionalist futurist--and you may find this ironic, counter-intuitive, paradoxical or even disturbing--I make no claim to be able to predict the future.
Here’s why.
Consider almost any issue. What factors are involved? In my work as a professional futurist and forecaster, I regularly speak about 1) technology; 2) competitors; 3) customers; 4) employees; 5) money; 6) demographic characteristics; 7) politics; 8) regulatory issues; and 9) human behavior.
In many ways these characteristics are analogous to the X’s and O’s in a tic-tac-toe game and they can play out in hundreds or thousands of ways. In fact, the real number is so astronomical as to be incalcuable because there isn’t just one technology, one competitor or one employee to be concerned with in each circumstance. There are many and each one adds exponentially to the number of new possible outcomes.
All of this is not to say that forecasting isn’t valuable and worthwhile. It is. (I wouldn’t be a professional futurist if I didn’t believe this.) Rather, I merely want you to unlearn the idea that the future can be predicted with great clarity. It can’t.
Counter-intuitively, though, you can gain a better feel for the range of future possibilities but only if you first think and long about all of the variables which can affect your future.
P.S. But, as the post below suggests, don’t forget about Black Swans.
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A Future of Black Swans ... or Unlearning the Future
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The Future Is In Your Hands
Check out this cool video from MIT. If you don’t think that “hand gesture computing” won’t transform work, play and education in the not-too-distance future you’ve got your hand-up-your-a#$.
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The World is Changing
The following quote is from Hugh MacLeod’s new book Ignore Everybody and 39 Other Keys to Creativity. This is Rule 17: The World is Changing:
“Some people are hip to it, others are not. If you want to be able to afford groceries in five years, I’d recomend listening closely to the former and avoiding the latter. Just my two cents.”
Great advice. It’s exactly what I meant when I wrote The World is Changing: Unlearn. It is also an excellent reason for hiring a futurist.
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The Practical vs The Impractical Futurist
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New Keynote Presentation: The Future Demands Unlearning
As long-time readers know, I have been focused on the concept of “unlearning” for some time now. I dedicated an entire chapter to the idea in my book, Jump the Curve and, in addition to this website, later this year I will also be releasing the first in a series of books on the topic of unlearning.
To this end, I am pleased to announce that I have developed a corresponding keynote presentation on the topic. It is a perfect motivational speech for any business, organization or institution that knows it must drive change in order to survive but is running into resistance from those “leaders,” managers, employees or customers who refuse to unlearn the old ways of doing business. Below is a brief description:
The pace of technological change is accelerating. Today’s organizations are living in a world where “constant change is the only constant.” New advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, and information technology are bringing forth exciting and unexpected discoveries every day, while the expansive and growing power of the Internet, social networking and the open-source movement are fueling the fires which threaten to consume much of today’s existing business landscape.
Life-long learning will obviously be more essential than ever in this chaotic and churning environment; but often lost in this new emerging reality of exponential change is the fact that before an organization can seize tomorrow’s opportunities it must first unlearn old, obsolete knowledge as well as unlearn the old ways of doing business.
In this fascinating, informative, entertaining, interactive and enlightening presentation, noted global futurist and best-selling author, Jack Uldrich--who has been hailed by BusinessWeek as “America’s Chief Unlearning Officer"--will not only explain why unlearning is a critical skill for your company and your organization’s employees, he will also demonstrate how unlearning can help:
-- Successfully navigate a future where the pace of scientific and technological knowledge is doubling every seven years;
-- Prepare for competition that doesn’t yet exist; and
-- Seize opportunities which are, today, only on the periphery of their imagination.
(For more information on this presentation, you may contact any one of the leading professional speakers bureaus which represent me or contact me directly at 612.267.1212.)
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I Spy Your iFuture
Word on the street, according this new article, is that Apple has filed a new patent for 3-D glasses. The obvious application is that the glasses will be used to watch 3-D movies and play more immersive video games. Less obviously is that the glasses may also be a boon to innovative educators and physical therapists. What do you spy in our iFuture?
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Touch the Future
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New Keynote Speech: The Future Requires Unlearning
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As long-time readers know, I have been focused on the concept of “unlearning” for some time now. I dedicated an entire chapter to the idea in my book, Jump the Curve and have also developed a separate website that is serving as a notebook for my forthcoming books on the topic—the first of which will be released later this year.
To this end, I am happy to announce that I have developed a corresponding keynote presentation on the topic and will be partnering with one of America’s top speakers bureaus, Leading Authorities, to bring the talk to the public. It is a perfect motivational or keynote speech for any business, organization or institution that knows it must drive change in order to survive ... but is running into resistance from those “leaders,” managers, employees or customers who refuse to unlearn the old ways of doing business.
Below is a brief description:
The pace of technological change is accelerating. Today’s organizations are living in a world where “constant change is the only constant.” New advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, and information technology are bringing forth exciting and unexpected discoveries every day, while the expansive and growing power of the Internet, social networking and the open-source movement are fueling the fires which threaten to consume much of today’s existing business landscape.
Life-long learning will obviously be more essential than ever in this chaotic and churning environment; but often lost in this new emerging reality of exponential change is the fact that before an organization can seize tomorrow’s opportunities it must first unlearn old, obsolete knowledge as well as unlearn the old ways of doing business.
In this fascinating, informative, entertaining, interactive and enlightening presentation, noted global futurist and best-selling author, Jack Uldrich—who has been hailed by BusinessWeek as “America’s Chief Unlearning Officer”—will not only explain why unlearning is a critical skill for your company or an organization’s employees, he will also demonstrate how unlearning can help:
-- Successfully navigate a future where the pace of scientific and technological knowledge is doubling every seven years;
-- Prepare for competition that doesn’t yet exist; and
-- Seize opportunities which are, today, only on the periphery of their imagination.
If you are interested in learning more about the presentation, I invite you to contact Leading Authorities directly at 1-800-SPEAKER or 1-202-783-0300.
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Cisco’s Vision of the Future
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10 Jobs of the Future
Inventor: Until 1950, “inventor” was listed as an official occupation on the U.S. Census form. The job title will soon return as a new industrial revolution—fueled by advances in material science, robotics; 3-D printing; information technology; and nanotechnology—takes root and unleashes a wave of new (and practical) inventions.
Video-Book (Vook) editor: As electronic books and e-readers become more popular, a new generation of editors who are skilled at providing readers with information in multiple forms—text, graphics, video, etc—will be required.
Data analyst: The flood of new data which the world will soon experience due to the continued growth of sensors; RFID tags and video will create growing demand for individuals who can not only interpret and decipher this data but who can also display it in new and more meaningful visual formats.
Video game designer: As immersive video becomes more common in schools and businesses due to the continued growth of haptics; augmented reality; and virtual reality, a growing number of video game designers trained in these areas will be required.
Virtual nurse: Continued advances in video; real-time monitoring tools; and expanded bandwidth will make it possible to safely and effectively monitor patients from afar. As a result of increasing health care costs and an aging population, more healthcare providers will turn to “virtual nurses” to monitor patients until the services of an “on-location” healthcare professional are required.
Robot Technicians: As robots become ever more popular and people come to rely on them for everything from cleaning to companionship, they will increasingly become seen as part of the family. Therefore, unlike many consumer products, robots won’t simply be abandoned when a new model arrives. Instead, people will demand their existing robots be upgraded. This will require the services of trained technicians who can upgrade robots with the latest software and hardware.
Custom manufacturer: In the hands of creative individuals, continued advances in software; computer aided design (CAD) and rapid prototype manufacturing will lead to more individuals drawing their livelihood from designing and building custom-made products. Among the areas most impacted will be health care and the arts. Specially, bioengineers will soon learn how to design and build new organs (e.g. hearts, livers, kidneys); while artists will use the tools to create new products and new forms of jewelry and art.
Marine biologist: The incredible diversity of ocean is nowhere near being understood or appreciated. A new generation of marine biologists trained in everything from biomimicry to genomics will remedy this situation and apply many of the lessons of the ocean to problems back on land.
Fish farmer: The world’s growing population will continue to put pressure on fish supplies. In response, companies will turn to fish farms as a sustainable method for meeting this growing demand.
Change management consultant: As the pace of technology accelerates and knowledge becomes obsolete more quickly, the ability to unlearn will be just as critical as the ability to learn. In increasing numbers, organizations will call upon the services of professionals trained in helping people adjust to the notion of “continuing change.”
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The Future Doesn’t Alway Require the “Big Fix”
Big problems such as health care, feeding the world and addressing climate change don’t necessarily require big solutions. In the 19th century, Ignaz Semmelweis helped save the lives of hundreds of thousands of women by getting doctors to wash their hands prior to assisting in the delivery of a new-born child. (Unfortunately, however, it still required the medical community nearly two decades to unlearn their stubborn and unhealthy habits.)
Alas, in the 21st century, the number of infections in hospitals remains unacceptably high. Why? Many healthcare professionals still aren’t employing good hygiene. If they were better at the simple act of washing their hands, the results would be impressive—on the order of saving thousands of lives annually and preventing billions of dollars in unnecessary costs.
In the field of agriculture, it was the addition of ammonium nitrate—a cheap but effective crop fertilizer—which allowed the world’s farmers to feed billions more people with the same land.
Continued advances in the field of genomics may also continue to increase the yield of corn, wheat and rice by making these crops more efficient in terms of how they utilize water and fertilizer. The result: More people can be fed using the same amount of land but with less impact on the environment.
In the automotive industry, it was the installation of the seat belt that saved the lives of thousands of motorists—even though the device was at first ridiculed as “inconvenient, costly, and just a bunch of damn nonsense” by auto executives. The next life-saving advance could be the introduction of super-strong, super-light nanomaterials.
As strange as it may sound, the problem of hurricanes may also just need a simple fix. As Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner outline in their delightful new book, Super Freakonomics, in may be possible to prevent costly hurricanes (which, since 2005, have inflicted an estimated $153 billion in damage to the United States alone) by deploying a few thousand “hydraulic heads” in those areas where hurricanes start. The devices work by bringing cooler water from the bottom of the ocean to the top thus cooling the surface temperature of the ocean water and preventing hurricanes from forming in the first place. The estimated cost: $1 billion.
On the bigger problem of climate change, Levitt and Dubner also outline the logic behind “Budyko’s Blanket”—a super high hose which would spew sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere—which could theoretically cool the planet for a mere $250 million.
Now, to be fair, both the “hydraulic heads” and “Budyko Blanket” may not work and serious questions remain on both ideas. But the broader point is that when faced with big problems there is absolutely no reason why we must first look to “big answers” as the solution. Often, big problems can be solved with small solutions. After all, as a child, how many of your cuts and bruises were solved with a tender kiss from your mother?
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Technology Lights the Future
Today is the 130th anniversary of the installation of the first electric streetlight in Wabash, Indiana. At the time, it cost $100 to install the light. More interestingly, just a month later the city paid to have four more lights installed. The rest, as they say, is history as the electric light then proceeded to grow exponentially—like lily pads on a pond.
Today, a view of America at night looks like this picture to the right. I ask you to keep in mind this analogy of how “technology can light the future” when considering how rapidly advances such as robotics and smart dust may unfold once the technology reaches a commercially scalable level.
On a different level, you might also want to consider how the electric light changed people’s behavior. For one thing, the light allowed merchants and others to stay open later. Ultimately, it lead to such things as sporting events being played in the evening.
My point is this: When considering how technology expands you also need to consider how widespread adoption of technology might change people’s behavior. For example, continued advances in robotics might allow senior citizens to stay in their homes longer and have an adverse impact on the aging services industry. Similarly, the rapid proliferation of “smart dust” could make once unsafe neighborhoods suddenly safe and lead to more people living in certain urban environments.
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America’s Future: In One Word
This past weekend I read a fascinating interview with Peter Thiel—the co-founder of PayPal and the first investor in FaceBook—in Wired. The article was entitled The Utopian Pessimist.
What I liked about the article is that Thiel questions the assumption—trumpeted by many investors and fund managers—that the stock market will continue to post long-term increases in the range of 6-8%.
It is easy to fall into this trap because for the past 100 years an investment in equities has, in fact, yielded such a healthy return. There is no reason why, however, that this must continue to be the case moving forward into the future. As Nassim Taleb explains in his excellent book, The Black Swan, the future has a way of surprising everyone—and those surprises can be both pleasant and unpleasant.
For instance, what if the past 100 years were just a pleasant surprise? That is what if the 20th century was an anomaly and we were just lucky to have gone from horses and buggies to automobiles, rockets, computers and the Internet in a very short time? As Thiel says, “It’s not automatic that that progress continues.”
It isnt’! But if America wishes to maintain and, possibly even grow, its global position what must it do?
In a word: Innovate.
Earlier today, I explained how the rate of paradigm shifts is accelerating. This implies that an unprecedented amount of economic disruption is headed our way; but rather than be a source of only worry and consternation; farsighted entrepreneurs; investors and, hopefully, policy-makers will also recognize that it also represents a wonderful opportunity.
Advances in information technology promise to revolutionize media, publishing and education. Progress in biotechnology, stem cell research and regenerative medicine portend a glorious new age in preventative health care; and advances in nanotechnology and synthetic biology point the way toward a new, cleaner and, ultimately, more sustainable energy paradigm. (For an idea of the decade ahead, I invite you to review my predictions for 2010-2019).
Many of these developments, in turn, will either converge or spin-off in new and unexpected ways. To capture this promise, though, it is essential to develop an educational; entrepreneurial and political culture which encourages and rewards risk and innovation.
The future of tomorrow will move so fast that innovation is less a characteristic to aspire to and, instead, a trait that must be constantly used; honed and improved upon. In my book, Jump the Curve, I lay out 50 strategies for doing this but I’d like to share three here: 1) Think Like a Child; 2) Develop a Future Bias; and 3) Learn to Unlearn.
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The Future of Paradigm Shifts
In his book, The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil states that “the rate of paradigm shifts is accelerating” and, at the current rate, “doubling about every decade.” This is an extraordinary development.
To help put some perspective on the matter, consider the opening paragraph from L. Gordon Crovitz’s article (From the Roman Codex to the iPad) in today’s Wall Street Journal:
How’s this for human progress? It took about 4,000 years from the invention of writing to the Roman-era codex of bound pages replacing scrolls, 1,000 years from the codex to movable type creating printed books, 500 years from the printing press to the Internet--and only 25 years to the launch of the iPad.
What’s next? My personal opinion is that continue advances in flexible electronics will further change both how information is conveyed and how it is consumed.
But the broader point is that almost every other industry, including health care, energy, and manufacturing, will also experience faster changes in the rate of paradigm shifts. The really important question is this: Are you and your industry prepared?
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iPad’s Foldable Future
Will Apple’s latest gadget, the iPad, become a commercial success? I don’t know. My personal guess is that it will be moderately successful in the short to mid-term. The applications for gaming, e-books and in the health care arena are all very promising and the developer community is sure to come up with some amazing (and yet-to-be imagined) “apps” for the device.
Longer-term, though, I believe the iPad will only be successful if it can transition to flexible electronics. Specifically, I think the device will need to be able to fold up and fit in a person’s pocket before it becomes a truly revolutionary device. Steve Job’s statement that the device fits a niche between the mobile phone and the laptop computer is correct, but he misses the broader point by not recognizing that this will soon be a false choice.
With the advent of flexible electronics, a single device should be able to morph into different objects depending upon need. (As Jobs said yesterday, “It’s phenomenal to hold the Internet in your hand.” It is but what I think people really want is the ability to hold the Internet in their hands and, afterwards, fold it up and put it away in their pocket or purse.)
I recognize that the technology does not yet exist (at least a commercially-scalable and affordable level) but it is coming as this visionary video from Nokia suggests:
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Think About the Future—By Asking Questions Today
As a professional futurist, I think about the future all the time. I realize that most people don’t have this luxury but I also don’t really believe that this trait is a “luxury.” If you want to succeed in the future, you must think about the future today.
I recently watched a wonderful 6-minute video on Seth Godin’s new book, Linchpin. The video consists of nothing more than a series of questions but many of them can be used to prompt your thinking about the future.
Here, for reading—and thinking—enjoyment, are some of the more pertinent questions:
1. What will you do when gas is $10 a gallon? (I would add the following question as well: What will you do when it is $1 a gallon?)
2. What will you do when electricity is free?
3. What will you do when computational power is a 1000 times more powerful?
4. Is it likely your organization will have the same products as bestsellers in 10 years?
5. Where will the replacements come from, and when?
6. If we got rid of textbooks, what would be the best way to replace them?
7. If you discovered your biggest competitor was successfully developing a product that reinvents the rules of your industry, what would you do?
8. Could you do the same thing if the competitor wasn’t about to do this?
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Think About the Future—Today
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Not Unmindful of the Future
Yesterday, I had the pleasure of addressing members of the Federal Executive Institute at the Marshall Foundation in Lexington, Virginia. The subject of my presentation was “Leading in an Era of Exponential Change: The Example of General George C. Marshall.” As readers know, I believe Marshall is the epitome of an “exponential executive,” and it is why I wrote an entire book on his extraordinary leadership skills: Soldier, Statesman, Peacemaker: The Leadership Lessons of General George C. Marshall.
After my presentation, I had the pleasure of tagging along with the class as it received a tour of the Washington & Lee Chapel where Robert E. Lee is buried. As I listened to the lecture, I learned that the Lee family (and now the Washington & Lee University) coat of arms bears the Latin motto: Non In Cautus Futuri. It translates to: “Not Unmindful of the Future.”
It is a wonderful phrase and it is a principle I strive everyday, as a professional futurist, to abide by.
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The Future of Education is Short
A college education is typically four years. Is there any reason why this length must remain the norm? The answer is a resounding “no.” Last year, I suggested the future of college may be $99 a month.
A few innovators are now offering college courses using a new, “all you can consume” model. In other words, instead of paying for courses individually (and by the credit hour), some on-line institutions are allowing students to take as many courses as they want within a specified time frame. This model allows students to finish college much sooner and on their own timeframe—rather than some artificial schedule.
There is an another reason why I believe this model is closer to what the future of education will look like. This past weekend the New York Times ran an interesting article entitled The Children of Cyberspace: Old Fogies by Their 20s.
The gist of the article is that technology is now moving so fast that it is creating “mini-generations.” For example, a college student who grew up in the FaceBook era now looks hopelessly outdated to her Twittering high school brother. And, not too soon, the brother will look equally clueless to his 7th grade sibling who is sure to adopt Kindle or whatever the next, new innovation may be.
One huge implication of technology acceleration is that the shelf life of some (but not all) knowledge is getting shorter and shorter. Why then spend a semester—or worse four years—learning something which will soon be obsolete?
Many courses will, by necessity, need to become shorter and high schools, colleges and universities must acknowledge this reality by offering courses more in tune with the future. This means shorter—but likely more intense—courses.
Rhetoric aside, education will also become a truly life-long endeavor; and unlearning will become just as critical as learning in the future.
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The Future of College
Unlearning College and University
The Future of Education is Now
Teach Unlearning in Kindergarten
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Jack Uldrich’s 10 Predictions for the Decade of the “Turbulent Teen’s”
”Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” It was the ancient Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu who uttered these wise words. As a professional futurist, I always keep this quote in the back of my mind and remind my audiences that I am not in the business of making predictions. Instead, I offer my clients a forecast which includes a broad range of future possibilities.
Nevertheless, I understand the appeal of predictions and do feel they can play a limited role in helping businesses, corporations, NGOs, and governments more realistically think about the future.
Therefore, much as I did last month with my 20 Predictions for 2010, I would now like to offer my humble predictions for how the following decade may unfold—all the time remembering that the future will most likely be shaped by those ”Black Swans” which none of us see coming.
Here then are some of my predictions to get your “future juices” flowing:
2010: The term “augmented reality” will be the year’s big buzzword. Augmented reality apps such as Yelp Monocle and Wikitude World Browser will continue to grow, but the year’s biggest hit will be the yet-to-be-released TAT Augmented ID—which uses face-recognition software to display information about the person being viewed. By the end of the decade, health care professionals will be able to display a patient’s entire medical history on a flexible electronic device which they can fold up and carry with them at all times.
2011: “Vooks”—a combination between an electronic book and a video—will become increasingly popular. By the end of the decade, a number of schools will be using the devices to provide students a deeper, more meaningful learning experience.
2012: College graduates will begin identify a variety of new career possibilities. Some of the more popular future jobs include genetic data counselors; privacy data consultants; 3-D gaming software enginners; rapid prototype manufacturers and climate geoengineers. By the middle of the decade, frustrated by society’s inability and unwillingness to seriously change their behavior in the face of climate change, Al Gore will reverse his position and become an advocate of limited climate geoengineering—the idea of using technology on a grand scale to modify the natural environment.
2013: A truce in the “War on Cancer” will be called as advances in gene therapy and nanomedicine begin addressing cancer at the molecular level. Cancer will still exist but the new paradigm will be premised on treating cancer on an ongoing basis. (In this way, it will be similar to how we now treat diabetes.) By the end of the decade, chemotherapy will be viewed as a crude and blunt instrument.
2014: A combination of radical advances in solar and desalination technology will afford an increasing number of farmers—especially those near coastal areas—access to cheap and reliable amounts of fresh water. By the end of the decade, however, climate scientists will become increasingly concerned that the amount of water being diverted from the world’s ocean is having a harmful effect on a number of ocean creatures. On a different front, advances in the field of synthetic biology will now be regularly supplying airlines with jet fuel produced from biomass.
2015: Due to a plethora of medical advances in gene therapy, biotechnology, nanomedicine, stem cell research and regenerative medicine, life expectancy will continue to grow faster than most demographers has estimated. Congress is finally forced to accept this reality and indexes Social Security and Medicaid benefits to the annual upward adjustments in life expectancy. AARP members complain loudly and use the latest social media tools to bolster their cause but younger more tech-savvy voters use new and even more effective data mining tools to out-organizer the “geezer geeks.”
2016: In the face of the growing environmental costs of producing, processing, shipping, packaging and storing meat, the FDA approves lab-grown pork for the commercial marketplace. PETA applauds the move but Greenpeace vows to fight the growing trend and labels lab-grown meat as “Frankenfood II.” By this time in the decade, a major biological attack will have occurred somewhere in the developed world and a number of democratic governments will have responded by limiting personal freedoms in exchange for greater security. (Advances in predictive algorithms; data mining; and face and voice recognition; cheap camera; and sensor technology will make security technology very effective.)
2017: Time Magazine will be in serious discussions about ending the print version of its magazine and will name “The Robot” as its 2017 “Person of the Year.” Space flight—at least into the outer atmosphere—will become affordable for upper middle class individuals.
2018: Diamonds will no longer be a “girl’s best friend.” The natural diamond market will collapse in the face of the superiority of synthetic diamonds. On a different note, startling progress in the field of tissue regeneration will have eliminated organ shortages and made organ donations as irrelevant as radiation therapy.
2019: The decade will be come to be referred to as “the turbulent teens” due to the growing maturity of such countries as India and Brazil; the wide-spread economic disruption wrought by technological advancement; and a renewed sense of optimism due to the fact that so many things once deemed “impossible” are now coming to fruition.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
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Is this the Future of Magazines and Newspapers?
Does Sports Illustrated have its pulse on the future of magazines and newspapers? I believe it does. I encourage you to watch this three minute video demonstration of what the company is working on:
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Is the Future of College $99 a Month?
Last August, I shared with you the story of the young woman who is suing her Alma Mater for $72,000 because she has failed to land a job. While opposed to the woman’s decision on political and philosophical grounds, I said at the time that it was a harbinger of things to come for colleges and universities because I’m convinced more and more young people will begin to question the wisdom of spending an increasingly exorbitant sum for an undergraduate education.
I recently came across a fascinating article in the Washington Monthly entitled ”College for $99 a Month.” It profiles the rise of a relatively new company, StraightLine, which is delivering introductory college courses for a flat, monthly fee of $99. Students of Clayton Christensen’s “Disruptive Innovation” model will immediately recognize how dangerous Straightline is to traditional colleges and universities—especially non-elite, middle-of-the-road 4-year institutions.
If those institutions hope to survive and still be around in 10 to 15-years time, I’d suggest they “jump the curve” and begin radically transforming their existing educational models for the 21st Century. At the same time, politicians and community leaders would do well to heed the warning implicit in the article which states that traditional colleges and universities still add a great deal of value—in terms of scientific research and transferring knowledge from generation to generation—to local communities, and that this is at risk of being lost because undergraduate programs (which are the “cash cow” of many colleges) will no longer be around to subsidize other programs and goals which have societal worth.
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Jack Uldrich’s 2010 Technology Forecast & Predictions
#1: By the end of 2010, one-third of all automotive ads will focus exclusively on software-driven features that emphasize future car’s ability to interpret, react and connect to the external environment. Far less emphasis will be placed on car’s physical appearance and performance.
#2: One 4-year college will decrease its tuition by more than 5% in 2010 citing growing pressure from online universities; 10 universities will follow Princeton’s lead and begin distributing e-Books (such as the Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader) to incoming students; and at least 100 other colleges and universities will follow Boston University’s lead in eliminating email addresses for incoming freshmen.
#3: The sale of solar cells will grow faster than expected due to innovations in new financing models that minimize or eliminate altogether the large up-front costs currently associated with installing solar modules.
#4: The first fully robotic vehicle will become operational in Iraq and Afghanistan and will successfully deliver military supplies more than 25 miles without the aid of any humans.
#5: A socially-networked song in which none of the band members knew one another prior to the song’s release will become a Billboard Top Ten hit. The band will attempt to conduct a conventional tour but will soon breakup citing “artistic differences.” The real cause: they find they just don’t like one another.
#6:The first cyborg soldier—with above average human capabilities in terms of strength, speed and/or vision—will return to active duty. Nicknamed “Steve Austin” by his fellow soldiers; the technology inside “the bionic man” (or bionic woman) will cost far less than 6 million dollars.
#7: An amateur scientist using cheap supercomputers accessed through “the cloud” will make a major scientific discovery. Her discovery will have initially been dismissed by peer-reviewed journals but hailed by the growing number of “open-science” advocates.
#8: A full two years before its first-ever “Space Tourism” launch, Galactic Suite Ltd will lower the price of its three-day trip to space from $4.4 million to $2 million.
#9: A physician in India will perform a prostectonomy on a patient in a different country using only a high-speed Internet connection and da Vinci robotic surgical device. The “medical tourist” in Sri Lanka will return to the United States the following day.
#10: A new iPhone app will be created which overlays a “Nascar-like” suit over the images of Congressmen and other prominent politicians to reveal from whom they are receiving campaign contributions. The size of the “patch” will vary according to the amount of campaign contributions they have received from the organization. The new app will bring heightened attention to the burgeoning field of augmented reality.
#11: An RFID chip embedded in the arm of an elderly Alzheimer patient will be credited with saving the man from freezing to death after he strolled away from his residence in the middle of the night and became disoriented.
#12: A leading concrete company will call for a ban on carbon dioxide emissions from concrete because its nanotechnology-enable concrete will be certified as a “CO2 neutral.”
#13: Hype surround algae’s promise as the “bio-fuel of the future” will grow hot after a breakthrough in the field of synthetic biology. Environmental advocates, however, will draw parallels between the advent of the “designer bacteria” (which is used to convert algae into fuel) and the creation of genetically modified organisms. The issue of “Frankenbugs” will gain traction in the media.
#14: Mind-control toys will grow from a small niche product in 2009 to the latest “must-have” toy by the 2010 holiday season. The technology will sell very well among kids under the age of 10 and seniors over the age of 65. Interest in brain-neural technology will also be driven by plummeting prices and increased product performance.
#15: Synthetically grown diamonds will make their way into the commercial marketplace but the diamond industry will have no ability to discern the products from “natural” diamonds. The diamond industry will attempt to downplay the significance of the event but will quietly ramp up efforts to regulate and control the creation of synthetic diamonds.
#16: A robotic pet that also serves as a companion, watch dog, vacuum cleaner and a personal healthcare monitor will be unveiled in Japan and marketed to the seniors. Voice recognition technology inside the robot will also be able to detect if a person"s speech is slurring and will connect to a healthcare professional immediately.
#17: The cost of sequencing an individual’s genome will drop to less than $1000. The breakthrough will lead to the creation of a rash of new social networking sites around different genetic dispositions in order to deal with the avalanche of genetic information. Genetic counseling will become one of the fastest growing professions in the coming decade.
#18: The growing sophistication of language translational software (available on such platforms as Google Wave) will cause leading corporations to revisit some job descriptions which currently require candidates to speak two languages. Citing the technology’s ability to facilitate conversations with native speakers, the city of Paris will become an even more popular tourist destination.
#19: A conservative state legislator will introduce legislation prohibiting healthy individuals (i.e. non-injured combat veterans) from using implanted brain-neural technology to control objects outside their body. The bill will die in committee but the author and other supporters vow to make it a campaign issue in 2010.
#20: Technology artisans will begin using inexpensive rapid prototype manufacturing equipment to develop new pieces of art and jewelry of previously unseen sophistication, complexity and beauty. More traditional artisans will ask that “non hand-made” products be banned from local art fairs.
The “Back to the Future” Prediction of 2010: A barefoot runner will win a major marathon and fuel a growing trend among recreational runners to run without shoes.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
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The Seven Deadly Habits of Ineffective Teachers
”Habits are useful but they can also be deadly. They are useful when the conditions in which they work are predictable and stable. But what happens if and when the bottom falls out of the stable social world in and for which we learn? Is it possible that learning itself—learning as we have come to enact it habitually—may no longer be particularly useful? Could it be that the very habits that have served us so well in stable times might actually become impediments to social success, even to social survival?”
The above quote was taken from this outstanding article, ”Unlearning Pedagogy,” which appeared in the Journal of Learning Design and was written by Erica McWilliam.
As a professional futurist, I have said repeatedly that “unlearning” will be one of the most critical skills for successfully navigating the future. In fact, I have become so enamored with the idea of unlearning that I have a website, www.unlearning101.com, dedicated exclusively to the topic.
If you don’t have time to read the McWilliam’s entire article, below are a list of the seven deadly habits teachers (and society) may want to unlearn:
1. The more learning the better
2. Teachers should know more than students
3. Teachers lead, students follow
4. Teachers assess, students are assessed
5. Curriculum must be set in advance
6. The more we know our students, the better
7. Our disciplines can save the world
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To Succeed in the Future: Think Like a Child, Now
Success Magazine recently published an article entitled ”Think Like a Child” in which I was quoted extensively. I encourage you to read it because, in addition to my insights (which I naturally think are insightful), it cites a number of other experts and practioners of “thinking like a child.” Here are a few highlights:
1. Children are naturally curious and open-minded;
2. Children aren’t conscious of what other people think;
3. Children don’t easily take “no” for an answer;
4. Children understand that recess can be the most important part of the day;
5. Children engage their imagination and aren’t afraid to try on new roles;
6. Children draw their inspiration from other children; and
7. Children don’t view setbacks as failures.
For some other child-like thoughts, I invite you to review these past writings:
The Power of Play
Stop Acting Your Age
Take a Mandatory Recess
The Power of Creative Play
Cultivate a Beginner’s Mind
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The Future Requires Engaging in Situational Unawareness Training
”Be very, very careful what you put into that head, because you will never, ever get it out.”—Thomas Cardinal Wolsey
Question: What two colors are the yield sign?
Did you say yellow and black? That answer would have been correct if Marcus Welby, M.D. was still the top-rated TV show; Richard Nixon occupied the White House or NASDAQ had yet to become a leading stock market index. The yield sign, though, has been red and white since 1971. Interestingly, a large number of people—including many born after 1971 - still erroneously believe the yield sign is yellow and black.
This phenomenon demonstrates that once a thing has been learned—even something as common as the color of a sign—it can be very difficult to unlearn.
Compare this situation with the actions of computer industry executives in the 1980s who had learned about computers in the era of mammoth mainframes and were accustomed to producing their own proprietary hardware and software and then having internal sales teams market and sell the expensive products they created.
With the advent of the personal computer the rules suddenly changed and companies began relying on microprocessors and packaged software and using third parties to distribute and sell the product. A handful of computer companies adjusted but many others such as Digital Equipment, Wang and Burroughs did not because either they didn’t unlearn the old rules or were late in adjusting to the new signs.
The same situation occurred more recently in the telecommunications industry. Prior to the creation of the iPhone, providers dominated the telecom industry and dictated to phone manufacturers the terms of agreement. The creation of Apple’s multi-touch, gesture interface and “apps"--laden device flipped the industry on its head. In a matter of months, millions of people switched providers and began using mobile devices to access the Internet (with a user--friendly browser), watch videos, read books and, together with the growing universe of software applications, do everything from locate their parked car at an airport and identifying obscure birds and songs to keeping their child mildly amused with an easy-to-download “fart app.”
In each case, the signs of change were not immediately obvious but they could have been picked up on if industry leaders had engaged in some situational “unawareness” training by stepping outside their industry’s existing paradigm and scanning the environment for subtle changes in technology, consumer behavior or the competitive landscape. For example, in the automotive industry, new advances in nano-materials and battery power could lead to radical new designs; the continued growth of social networking may demand the cars of the future to maintain constant connectivity and improve the driving experience; and advances in robotics and rapid prototyping could transform both the manufacturing process and the supply chain. In each case, automotive professionals will have to unlearn what a car looks like; how it is made; what it is expected to do; and who they will have to partner with in order to build the car of the future.
Homework Assignment: Using Starbucks as a case study, indentify three emerging trends in technology, consumer behavior or the beverage/food industry that may necessitate company officials to unlearn some aspects of its current business model.
Extra Credit: Identify at least two things which have contributed to Starbucks past success but that it should consider stop doing? (Hint: In 2009, the company dropped its name from a store in Seattle and replaced it with a name that more closely resembles a neighborhood corner coffee shop.)
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Future Headline: Teenager Controls Mars Rover from Home
Yesterday, on the front page of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, there was this article: Flying deep into the Middle East, from a cockpit in Fargo. The piece, which documented how Air Force personnel are controlling drones over Iraq and Afghanistan, was likely met with a collective yawn by most of the reading public. However, if you stop and think about it for a moment, the idea would probably have been dismissed as preposterous as recently as a few years ago. I mean think about it: Kids in North Dakota using their computer to control flying robots half a world away.
Alas, such is the nature of technological progress. To get your creative futuristic juices flowing let me offer another possible headline from the future: Teenager Controls Mars Rover from Home. As NASA gets more serious about using robots to explore space, I think the agency may some day have a glut of robotic devices on the “Red Planet” and it won’t know what to do with them all. In an effort to tap into the “open-source” ethos as well as get kids excited about science, technology and space exploration, NASA will then allow students (thorough a secure satellite connection) to conduct their own exploration using older robots.
Impossible? No. Unlikely? Perhaps, but then again how many people would have dismissed the idea of North Dakota teenagers using a video game-like joy stick to control and drop and bombs in Afghanistan as recently as a decade ago?
Interested in other headlines from the future? Check out this old post:
Worldwide Solar Farm Construction Forces Coal Plants to Shutter
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The Future is on the Back Pages of the Newspaper
In my 2008 book, Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies to Help Your Company Stay Ahead of Emerging Technologies, one strategy I encourage people to employ from time to time is that of reading the newspaper backwards. Why? Because it can help you more clearly see where the future is headed.
Yesterday, for example, as I was returning from Dallas where I delivered a keynote presentation on the future of travel and tourism to the Texas Travel Industry Association, I began by reading the marketing section of the Wall Street Journal from back-to-front. Here’s what I noticed. On Page 8, it was revealed that Sarah Palin’s new book won’t be released in an E-book until after Christmas. This is noteworthy for the simple fact that it wouldn’t have been noteworthy as recently as last year. In other words, E-books have now become so popular that when a new book isn’t released in electronic format at the same time as the print version it qualifies as news. It’s clear from this news that e-book sales will only continue to rise at the expense of traditional hardcover books and that the publishing industry must adapt.
On Page B7 there was a similar story, only this one related to the advertising industry: Web Ad Sales in Britain Overtake TV. On Page B6, it was announced that Lemmis Lighting is releasing a 20-year lightbulb. (Imagine this: In the future your kid or grandchild might not be able to change a lightbulb because it is something they only have to do once every two decades!)
And then on Page B5 there were two articles of note. First, there was a small article announcing that Princeton University was testing Amazon Kindle’s DX e-book as part of a national pilot program; and, second, there was a larger article explaining that the airline industry is finally getting serious about employing RFID tags to track baggage. Both news stories reinforce the growing prevalence of e-books and RFID technology.
My friends, the future is here. To learn more about it all you need to do is read the back of the newspaper!
P.S. If you keep reading the 9/30/09 edition of the WSJ, on Page 3, there is article explaining why biobutanol might soon replace ethanol as America’s biofuel of choice.
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Hey YouTwitFace, The Future Will Require Unlearning Social Media
Earlier today I had the opportunity to give a short presentation on unlearning to the Olson advertising agency in Minneapolis. During the course of my talk I mentioned how fast technology is changing and I reminded my audience that although Facebook is only 5 years old and Twitter barely 3 years of age, it is important to remember that new social media tools are being created everyday—some of which will undoubtedly require us to unlearn some of our current communications habits. Afterwards, someone mentioned that Conan O’Brien addressed this very theme during last evening’s 2009 Emmy Awards. Enjoy this short (and hilarious) look at the Year 3000.
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Jump the Curve Strategy #15: Mandatory Recess
A mandatory recess might not sound like a sure-fire path to prosperity, but providing employees a period of unstructured free time to pursue activities of their choosing can be very beneficial. A handful of companies have already instituted such policies. Among some of the better known companies are Google, Genentech, and 3M.
All three companies have policies that allow some of their employees to spend anywhere between 15 percent and 20 percent of their time pursuing independent projects of their own choosing. In essence the companies are giving their employees permission to play.
3M has been a proponent of this practice for the longest period of time. According to company officials, the practice dates back to the 1920s when an employee reportedly disobeyed an order to abandon a project and ended up creating Scotch masking tape--one of the most successful products of all time.
One of 3M’s better known and more recent success stories is that of the Post--t Note, which was developed by an employee who, because of 3M’s policy, was free to pursue the project.
The benefits, though, go beyond these isolated successes. 3M has an incredible history of developing new products. For years the company has publicized the fact that 50 percent of its annual revenues can be traced back to products that were developed within the past five years.
One of the reasons it has been able to regularly achieve this goal is because employees have been encouraged to innovate and have then been given the freedom to pursue new ideas. The mandatory recess policy has not only reinforced the idea that continued innovation was critical to the company’s success, it has given management the confidence to stay focused on ideas that at first might have seemed either like dead ends or were too off the wall to pursue.
Another company that has embraced a discretionary time policy is Genentech. For the past few years the biotechnology company has consistently been ranked as one of the best places to work in America. There are many reasons for this, but one is because it allows its scientists discretionary time to pursue independent projects--in some cases up to 100 percent of their time. Genentech officials credit the creation of the anticancer drug Avastin--a product with over a $1 billion in annual sales--to its “discretionary time” policy.
As I explained before, the cost of the price of sequencing genes will continue to plummet due to the creation of ever faster computers and more sophisticated gene sequencing techniques and tools. As these things occur, not only will new drug treatments become available, but scientists and researchers are more likely to find innovative solutions to create drugs that are increasingly tailored to individual users.
Finally there is Google. In many ways, it has the boldest recess policy because it applies to all of the company’s employees (3M’s and Genentech’s programs are limited to its scientific and R&D staffs). Among the programs company officials attribute to its policy are the creation of Google News Service, Orkut (its social networking site), and Gmail.
In addition to generating new innovative products, mandatory recess offers one additional benefit that is hard to quantify, but is nonetheless extremely important: It is a powerful recruiting and retention tool. There is a fierce battle to attract and retain talented workers. One of the reasons Google, Genentech, and 3M are doing as well as they are is their policies send a clear message to prospective employees: The company trusts them to pursue interesting and important projects that they believe are in the company’s best long-term interests.
By giving workers this freedom, companies accrue one additional benefit. Employees now have a way of not simply meeting expectations--they have a way of surpassing them.
Exponential Insight
If you want employees to jump the curve, you have to give them the time and space to jump. As I will continue to demonstrate throughout this website, there will be no shortage of wild ideas and strange possibilities arising due to exponential advances in technology. Consider just a few of the possibilities that the emerging science of nanotechnology might enable materials scientists to play around with. For instance, plastic, glass, and steel are already being made stronger, lighter, more flexible and, in some cases, self-cleaning. Soon self-healing materials, flexible electronics, and solar fabrics will be on the market. Some of these advances will lead to innovative new products and applications. Thinking up new ideas will require people to follow their hunches and, sometimes, make counterintuitive jumps in logic. Running such off-the-wall ideas by management could, at best, be difficult. Better those employees just be given some mandatory recess time to pursue their ideas.
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The Future of College Education?
CNN is reporting about a Monroe College graduate who is suing her Alma Mater for $72,000 because she has been unable to land job. In many ways, I find the article disturbing because not only does the student appear unwilling to accept any responsibility for her own plight, but also because I don’t believe people should use our courts to address every ill (real or perceived) that afflicts society.
Nevertheless, as a futurist, I find the report fascinating because I believe a number of students are going to begin questioning the wisdom of spending $50,000; $75,000 and upwards of $200,000 for a college education that offers—in many cases—marginal value.
I have written about the future of college before (here and here) and I remain convinced that in the future it will matter far less where students receive their degrees. What will matter is a student’s ability to demonstrate knowledge. The reality is that the world is awash in free knowledge and the future belongs to those who can assimilate it and apply it in meaningful ways—regardless of whether they received it for free or, as in the case of the suing student, $72,000.
Now, I am not saying that college and university will go away. I am merely implying that savvy and self-motivated students (and their parents) will no longer be willing to pay exorbitant tuition fees. Colleges and universities, if they wish to stay relevant in the future, must address the issue of rising tuition costs.
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A Future of Black Swans … or Unlearning the Future
”Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu
This famous quote was uttered over 2500 years ago and may strike some people as odd that, as a professional futurist, I have chosen to highlight it.
My rationale is two-fold. First, as I have said many times before, the chief responsibility of a futurist is not to “predict” the future but rather outline a range of future possibilities. Second, and more important, I have highlighted the quote because it is true.
If you have not already read Nassim Taleb’s outstanding book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, do so as soon as possible. On Page 177 of the book, Taleb has an illustration of the scattering effect which artfully explains why predicting the future—especially for longer time frames—is virtually impossible.
Because I can’t reprint the figure here, I am left with Taleb’s analogy for understanding the scattering effect: the prediction of a billiard ball.
Assuming one has knowledge of the location of every ball and the speed and accuracy of the cue ball, it is relatively easy to predict the expected movement of the ball after the first shot. A person might even expect that second, third and fourth degree movements can be estimated with great accuracy due to the growing computational power of computers. The problem, however, grows increasingly complex with each subsequent movement. This is because after the ninth movement the gravitational pull of a person standing at the next pool table exerts enough of an effect to alter the trajectory of the ball. And after 56 movements even the smallest particle on the outer edge of the universe will effect the trajectory!
The bottom line is this: There are simply too many factors to consider when contemplating the future 20, 30, 50 or 100 years out. (Even a small effect today can have outsized implications 50 years hence). The situation, of course, becomes even more complicated because of Taleb’s main thesis which is that “Black Swans”—described as “high impact, low probability” events—tend to shape the future more than “expected” trends.
Therefore, whether a future “Black Swan” takes the shape of a pandemic, an asteroid, an E-bomb, a rogue terrorist attack, a North Korean or Iranian nuclear attack, an unexpected breakthrough in quantum computing or synthetic biology, or, more likely, some “unknown unknown;” the future will be difficult too predict because we don’t have—and won’t ever have—enough knowledge about the future.
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To Succeed in the Future: Unlearn Information
Unlearning information. It’s sounds paradoxical, right? After all, who in their right mind, would want less information? Well, you might if you want to succeed in the future.
Consider this quote which I came across in Jonah Lerner’s informative new book, “How We Decide”:
“A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.”
It is counter-intuitive but often having access to too much information can lead people to make worse decisions.
For example, in a classic study, one group of MIT graduate students were given access to a steady stream of financial information—CNBC, Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, etc—while a second group was only given information on the changing price of a stock.
Given this disparity which group do you think did a better job in selecting stocks? Most people would assume the first group. After all isn’t this why people read the Wall Street Journal and watch the analysts on CNBC? Well, you would be wrong. The second group—the group with less information—performed better.
Various versions of this experiment have been conducted with other groups, including college counselors who were asked to predict the future success of different students. One group was provided high school transcripts, SAT/ACT test scores, application essays and were even allowed personal interviews with the students. The second group was only given access to transcripts and SAT scores.
Again, the group with less information performed better. One big reason why this occurs is because when people are inundated with too much information they tend to think of all information as being equal. In the process, they lose track of what information is really important. More problematic is the finding that with more information people increasingly confident of their bad decisions!
The bottom line is not just as Jonah Lerner says that “Knowledge has diminishing returns,” but rather as Nassim Taleb wrote in the Black Swan that “Additional knowledge of the minutiae of daily business can be useless, even toxic.”
So there you go. De-toxify your system. Unlearn. Put down the newspapers and blogs; stop watching TV news programs; and quit following everyone on Twitter—you’ll make better decisions because of it.
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To Prepare for the Future Take a Course on Unlearning
At the end of yesterday’s post on learning to unlearning (on my other website, Unlearning101.com), I posed the following question: How does one learn a new gestalt? To begin a person must start by unlearning some things. But what things do we unlearn? For our purposes, a good place to start might be to imagine what a course on unlearning what might look like.
One place to start is to imagine where the course would take place. Initially it will be--and already is--online. In 2007 the Massachusetts Institute of Technology announced that it was putting all of its courses online for free--for anyone in the world to access.
And let’s remember, the online, virtual classroom of the future is only going to get better. The Internet of the future will be streaming incredible amounts of data-rich information anywhere in the world, students will be capable of wirelessly downloading the latest information from flexible electronic books that display both the written word and video files, and new software programs will be capable of translating text from Mandarin Chinese, French, or Farsi into English--and vice versa. (See ”The Future of Reading.")
Another place a course on unlearning might gravitate toward is 3-D virtual-reality environments such as Linden Labs’ Second Life--a site where anyone can create a personal avatar of himself, meet other virtual avatars, and engage in online training sessions. As of this writing IBM, Dell, Intel, Circuit City, and Sears have all created a virtual presence in Second Life.
Interestingly, one of the initial motives of this move was not to create a stronger presence on the Internet (although that is certainly a factor), it was to achieve cost savings on employee education.
What is more interesting from the perspective of unlearning is how Second Life and other virtual-reality sites can be exploited to provide people with different perspectives. In a virtual environment, people can take on any appearance they want. While some people will undoubtedly use it for escapist fantasies, it could also be a powerful tool to help people unlearn certain habits. Imagine, for example, customer service representatives or managers being required to act as customers in one of their own online stores. The experience could provide a unique and refreshing perspective. (And, as I recently wrote, we could all benefit on occasion from unlearning everything from your perspective of color to your view of a stranger standing across the street.)
Longer term, the classroom of unlearning will likely become even more immersive. Perhaps Second Life will morph into Third Life. Among the technologies this environment are likely to incorporate will be enhanced visual, auditory, voice and speech recognition, and haptic technologies. Doctors and service technicians could use these tools to practice operations and repairs in silico before being allowed to ply their trade in the real world.
These tools will also be a boon for learning, unlearning, and relearning. People are often classified into one of three broad categories of learning: visual, auditory, or kinesthetic. Visual people learn by seeing or reading something, auditory learners by hearing it, and kinesthetic learners learn by doing it with their hands and muscles. (It is not quite this simple. Many people use a combination of different techniques for different things, but in general, most people tend to favor one of the three methods over the other two.)
A course on unlearning could exploit these natural tendencies and help people absorb new ways of doing things. For instance, instead of just reading about how a new drug works on a cancer patient, doctors could watch how it interacts with and disables a cancer cell. Other businesses could use such immersive technology to gain a deeper appreciation of what an elderly person experiences and create products that better address their needs. (See ”Unlearning Your Age.")
Many courses on unlearning won’t have a teacher. They will rather be open source in nature, and the content will not be provided by a single “expert” but rather it will be continually added to and improved upon by a vast collection of people. To this end, a relatively new wiki called Curriki has recently been created. Its goal is to support the development and free distribution of world-class educational material to anyone who needs it--anywhere in the world.
But far from being a shoddy collection of disjointed or inferior ideas, the result of these wikis will be vastly superior to anything a single expert could pull together. In the case of business wikis, they will contain advice and insights from employees, suppliers, and customers.
Among the adjustments this will require is that managers will need to unlearn their own reliance on experts. People will need to unlearn the idea that money and quality are synonymous. In the future, many of the best products will be the creation of open-source methods and wikis.
Another thing people will have to unlearn is that there isn’t always an answer. This is because so many fields are constantly evolving. An admission of one’s own ignorance may well be the first step most people will need to take upon entering the unlearning classroom of the future. Exponential executives may even have to go a step farther and accept that ignorance will be the largest element in their future educational needs.
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The Future of Association Meetings
In my business as a futurist and a public speaker, I have addressed hundreds of business association meetings. They are great networking opportunities, but it is not uncommon at these events to see a great many people stick to the safety of their pre-existing social circles. There is nothing inherently wrong with this, but most people would probably agree that in so doing these people are missing out on a great opportunity to form new connections as well as gain insight from other people whom they haven’t—and might never—meet.
Well, there is a new technology brewing on the horizon which could radically alter the dynamics of future meetings and enhance the productivity of these meetings. The technology I am speaking of is known as ’smart badges” and while they have been around in a limited form for the past few years, the technology is now getting better and they are poised to have a big impact on how future meetings are conducted—especially association meetings.
For instance, if you look at the picture above it is easy to see who is talking to who. Armed with this information, it might be easier for people to make common connections. For example, if you don’t know Bob but you see that your friend Sarah does, it might be easier for you to introduce yourself to Bob. Similarly, the technology can be used to bring together people who share common interests, hobbies or who might have even read the same book. It is even feasible to draw in people who would otherwise prefer to stay on the fringe—and this could be important because these people might have something really valuable to add to the conversation.
MIT’s Media Lab and such spin-off companies as nTag are producing a variety of innovative new technologies that could revolution the field of sociometrics. When one couples this progress with advances being made in the fields of mobile communication, RFID technology and software programs and algorithms, it boggles the mind to think how much more enjoyable, informative and entertaining future business and trade association meetings might be.
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Unlearn by Learning to Ask New Questions
We have all been there at some time—standing in line at the airport waiting to board a plane and thinking to ourselves that “there has to be a better way.” Well, apparently, there is now. According to this informative article a researcher at Fermilab has figured out the optimal way to board an airplane.
His findings are counter-intuitive to say the least. Contrary to what one might expect, boarding from the back of the plane first isn’t the optimal method. Rather, the optimal method is to board passangers 10 at a time in every other row. Apparently, this allows passengers to store their baggage overhead at a faster rate.
As I say in my book, Jump the Curve, accelerating advances in computer processing power and algorithms often result in findings that challenge conventional wisdom. The big question now is whether executives in the airline industry will have the courage to listen to an outsider (the researcher, Jason Steffen is a physicist) and whether the industry itself can “unlearn” its current behavior of loading passengers from the the back of the plane.
Interested in other posts on the topic of unlearning? Check out these articles:
Does the Pharmaceutical INdustry Need to Unlearn?
Is the Health Care Industry prepared to Unlearn?
Learning to Unlearn: Case Study #1
Examples of Unexponential Thinking
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