Industries: Health Care

The Future is Available for Viewing on Re-runs of Star Trek

Growing up, I watched Star Trek but I never considered myself a “Trekkie.” Recently, I have to the conclusion that I should have been paying closer attention to the show. For example, look at the photo of Captain Piccard. Doesn’t the device he’s holding look like an iPad? Interestingly, the show was produced in 1987.

Earlier program’s (the one’s with William Shattner staring as Captain Kirk) were just as prophetic. Watch this interesting video, which I have also posted below, comparing Star Trek’s voice translator with the equipment that is available today. Or consider the USS Enterprise’s all-knowing computer--the one that could answer almost any question--and contrast it with IBM’s “Watson” computer.

The real take-a-way is this: Star Trek was supposed to take place in the 22nd century. It is only 2010. What does this tell us? The future will arrive sooner than any of us expect.

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The Future of Robots?

Did you know that if you could fold a piece of paper 50 times it would reach a height of nearly 62 million miles. Such is the incredible power of exponential growth. I now ask you to keep this analogy in mind as you view the future of shape shifting robots. The technology is fairly crude today but if it grows exponentially just imagine how the technology might transform robots for military and health care applications.

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Futurist Jack Uldrich on Regional Economic Development

Luncheon 2010 - Jack Uldrich from Katie Dye on Vimeo.

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The Future in One Picture

I love this picture. It is a wonderful example of how the future has a way of getting better, faster, smaller and cheaper.

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Helping Businesses Unlearn

As a leader you must nurture an organization that can rapidly adapt. Unlearning can help.

Unlearning can also help you innovate. In fact, unlearning can even assure you and your organization survive.

After years of work, I am pleased to report that I have now developed both a half and a full-day seminar designed to help organizations unlearn—and thus adapt, innovate and survive.

Below is a short 9-minute video overview of the program. If you are interested in how “unlearning” can help your organization, please contact me at jack@unlearning101.com or 612.267.1212.

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Why Businesses Must Unlearn

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Futurist Jack Uldrich Keynotes Conference

In the past year, I have given dozens of keynote presentations to a variety of clients. Below is a short 10-minute speaking demo. If you are looking for an engaging, entertaining and informative keynote speaker for your conference or event, please contact either Mimi Hair or Ryan Foltz at Leading Authorities.

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Experiential Leadership Seminar: Into the Unknown with Lewis & Clark

I am pleased to announced that, in partnership with Jeff Appelquist of BlueKnight History Seminars, we have produced a new three-day experiential leadership seminar based on my best-selling book Into the Unknown: Leadership Lessons from Lewis & Clark’s Daring Westward Expedition.

For organizations and corporations looking to take advantage of tomorrow’s unknowable environment and who are interesting in not only discovering their future—but creating it—this is the perfect leadership and training seminar. Below is a short 5-minute video outlining the program:

For more information either contact me at jack@nanoveritas.com or Jeff Appelquist at BlueKnight History Seminars.

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Every Employee is Now a Marketer

I’m in Hershey, PA today preparing to give a keynote presentation on the “future of social networking” to PANPHA—the Pennsylvania association of non-profit senior services. One of the key takeaways for my audience will be that in this new era of social media every employee is now a marketer. That is every employee by his or her actions—or inactions—can either enhance or tarnish your organization’s reputation.

In this new era, anyone with a cellphone and a social network has the ability to immediately comment on an organization’s service by tweeting, blogging or sending a YouTube video to dozens, hundreds, thousands or, potentially even millions of people as United Airlines recently experienced at the hands of this clever and hilarious YouTube video by a disgruntled passenger.

For a more concrete example of now every employee is now a marketer, I’d like to introduce you to Zach Fogel—an employee at the Hershey Lodge where I am staying. As a “VIP” representative (every guest is a VIP, I think) Zach called to ask me if a I needed anything. “Yes, as a matter of fact, I do,” I said. “I left the charger to my iPhone at home and I called the concierge to see if the hotel had one but she said, “No.” Zach then informed me he was an iPhone user and that I could use his cord for the evening. To make the situation even more impressive, Zach was on his way home for the evening but took the time to run the cord up to my room.

For this simple action, I am now not only singing Zach’s praises but I am also giving the Hershey Lodge a little free publicity on my various social networks because I think their management understands how every employee is now a marketer.

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Experiential Leadership Training: Using History to Navigate into the Future

As a professional futurist it has always struck many people as odd that I have also written a book on the leadership lessons of Lewis & Clark. The reason I did so is because I am a strong proponent of metaphorical learning experiences as well as using history as a guide for the future.

In partnership with Jeff Appelquist of BlueKnight History Seminars, I recently put together a three-day experiential leadership seminar using Meriwether Lewis, William Clark and the Corps of Discovery’s historic journey “into the unknown” as a learning platform.

Below is four-minute video documenting the course which took place in Montana and included visits to Great Falls, the Gates of the Mountains, Three Forks and the Continental Divide.

If you and your company are interested in a similar experience, please contact me at 612.267.1212.

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Leadership Lessons from Lewis & Clark

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A Million, a Billion, and a Trillion Reasons to Care About the Future

If something doubles just ten times it is one thousand (1024 times to precise) larger. This is an important concept to grasp if you want to better contemplate the future.

Why? Because no fewer than nine technological trends—semiconductors, data storage, bandwidth, genomics, gene sequencing, robotics, nanotechnology, brain scanning and scientific knowledge—are doubling anywhere from every 6 to 18 months.

To put this in some perspective, consider the following examples.

If the military is currently deploying 1000 robots in Afghanistan but the number is doubling every year by 2020 that means there will be one million robots deployed in the country. This will change warfare as we know it.

If Wal-Mart is currently deploying 1 million RFID (radio frequency identification) tags but that number is doubling every year this suggests by 2020 that there will be 1 billion RFID tags deployed. This will fundamentally transform the global supply chain management system.

And if gene sequencing equipment can today translate one billion sequences every few hours (at an estimated cost of $20,000) but the technology is doubling year year, this implies we will be able to translate one trillion genes an hour by 2020. If this comes to pass, sequencing your genome will not only take minutes it will cost pennies on the dollar. Such a change could radically transform how we treat disease and will have profound implications for both the health care and the pharmaceutical industries.

A million, a billion and a trillion might not seem that different (perhaps because they rhyme) but here’s one way to think of the change coming our way:

One million seconds was 12 days ago;
One billion seconds was 32 years ago;
One trillion seconds takes us back to the year 30,000 B.C.

My advice? Buckle up because your future is about to expand in a million, a billion and a trillion different directions.

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Into the Unknown with Lewis & Clark

I will be in Montana for the next few days leading a corporate group “into the unknown” using my 2004 book (Into the Unknown: Leadership Lessons from Lewis & Clark’s Daring Westward Expedition) as a guide. We’ll be visiting Great Falls, The Gates of the Mountains, Three Forks and the Continental Divide. It is amazing how relevant the leadership skills the two captains displayed during their 863-day, 8000-mile journey still are to this day.

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Leadership Lessons from Lewis & Clark

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The Internet is Making Smarter … and Dumber

Two of my favorite writers and thinkers have recently released books. Clay Shirky has written a book entitled Cognitive Surplus: Creativity and Generosity in a Connected Age in which he persuasively argues, among other things, that the Internet is making us smarter because it is allowing society to produce such knowledge accelerators as Wikipedia at virtually no cost.

On the other hand, Nicholas Carr has just released his book, The Shallows: What the Internet is Doing to Our Brains, in which he outlines his thesis for why the Internet is making us dumber. (In a nutshell, Carr convincingly argues that the Internet distracts us and makes prolonged thought more difficult. In the process, the Internet is literally rewiring our brain.)

Over the weekend, the two men outlined their respective arguments in the Wall Street Journal. (Shirky’s argument can be read here and Carr’s here.)

So who is right? Many people will be swayed by various arguments and place themselves firmly on one side of the debate or the other. In my humble opinion, however, both men are right. The world isn’t black or white, it is black and white as well as various shades of gray—all at the same time.

This can be a difficult concept to grasp but as F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote: “The test of a first rate mind is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.”

If you don’t believe this is true, just look at the optical illusion to the right. Does it say “true” or “false” or does it say both at the same time? Once you learn to embrace ambiuity, you will be one step closer to embracing the future.

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Futurist Jack Uldrich to Keynote the MoneyShow

From August 19-21, 2010 I’ll be joining Steve Forbes at the 2010 MoneyShow in San Francisco to discuss how exponential trends in technology will impact your investment portfolio. If you’re in the area, please consider joining us. For more information, click here.

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The Future is Everywhere

Watch this clever video entitled iPad + Velcro. It is a spoof of course but I also believe it offers a hint of what the future will look like. The truth is that people would love to attach their iPad to their wall, dashboard and ceiling. This isn’t practical—yet. However, as flexible electronics become more inexpensive and come to be embedded almost everywhere, I believe people will soon be able to turn their dashboards, walls and ceilings into computer screens.

iPad + Velcro from Jesse Rosten on Vimeo.

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Tic-Tac-Toe: The Future is Unknowable

Take a look at the familiar tic-tac-toe grid to the right. In how many different ways could you make the journey? It is not common for people to guess 27, 81 or even 243. The answer, however, is 362,800. This is because 9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1=362,800. (The actual number of winning or draw games is 255,168. For a more complete explanation click here.) My point is that either number is significantly larger than most people expect.

The same is true when thinking of the future. It is comforting to believe we can predict future with great certainty but as a professionalist futurist--and you may find this ironic, counter-intuitive, paradoxical or even disturbing--I make no claim to be able to predict the future.

Here’s why.

Consider almost any issue. What factors are involved? In my work as a professional futurist and forecaster, I regularly speak about 1) technology; 2) competitors; 3) customers; 4) employees; 5) money; 6) demographic characteristics; 7) politics; 8) regulatory issues; and 9) human behavior.

In many ways these characteristics are analogous to the X’s and O’s in a tic-tac-toe game and they can play out in hundreds or thousands of ways. In fact, the real number is so astronomical as to be incalcuable because there isn’t just one technology, one competitor or one employee to be concerned with in each circumstance. There are many and each one adds exponentially to the number of new possible outcomes.

All of this is not to say that forecasting isn’t valuable and worthwhile. It is. (I wouldn’t be a professional futurist if I didn’t believe this.) Rather, I merely want you to unlearn the idea that the future can be predicted with great clarity. It can’t.

Counter-intuitively, though, you can gain a better feel for the range of future possibilities but only if you first think and long about all of the variables which can affect your future.

P.S. But, as the post below suggests, don’t forget about Black Swans.

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A Future of Black Swans ... or Unlearning the Future
The Practical Futurist vs The Impractical Futurist

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The Future Is In Your Hands

Check out this cool video from MIT. If you don’t think that “hand gesture computing” won’t transform work, play and education in the not-too-distance future you’ve got your hand-up-your-a#$.

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The World is Changing

The following quote is from Hugh MacLeod’s new book Ignore Everybody and 39 Other Keys to Creativity. This is Rule 17: The World is Changing:

“Some people are hip to it, others are not. If you want to be able to afford groceries in five years, I’d recomend listening closely to the former and avoiding the latter. Just my two cents.”

Great advice. It’s exactly what I meant when I wrote The World is Changing: Unlearn. It is also an excellent reason for hiring a futurist.

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The Practical vs The Impractical Futurist

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New Keynote Presentation: The Future Demands Unlearning

As long-time readers know, I have been focused on the concept of “unlearning” for some time now. I dedicated an entire chapter to the idea in my book, Jump the Curve and, in addition to this website, later this year I will also be releasing the first in a series of books on the topic of unlearning.

To this end, I am pleased to announce that I have developed a corresponding keynote presentation on the topic. It is a perfect motivational speech for any business, organization or institution that knows it must drive change in order to survive but is running into resistance from those “leaders,” managers, employees or customers who refuse to unlearn the old ways of doing business. Below is a brief description:

The pace of technological change is accelerating. Today’s organizations are living in a world where “constant change is the only constant.” New advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, and information technology are bringing forth exciting and unexpected discoveries every day, while the expansive and growing power of the Internet, social networking and the open-source movement are fueling the fires which threaten to consume much of today’s existing business landscape.

Life-long learning will obviously be more essential than ever in this chaotic and churning environment; but often lost in this new emerging reality of exponential change is the fact that before an organization can seize tomorrow’s opportunities it must first unlearn old, obsolete knowledge as well as unlearn the old ways of doing business.

In this fascinating, informative, entertaining, interactive and enlightening presentation, noted global futurist and best-selling author, Jack Uldrich--who has been hailed by BusinessWeek as “America’s Chief Unlearning Officer"--will not only explain why unlearning is a critical skill for your company and your organization’s employees, he will also demonstrate how unlearning can help:

-- Successfully navigate a future where the pace of scientific and technological knowledge is doubling every seven years;
-- Prepare for competition that doesn’t yet exist; and
-- Seize opportunities which are, today, only on the periphery of their imagination.

(For more information on this presentation, you may contact any one of the leading professional speakers bureaus which represent me or contact me directly at 612.267.1212.)

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Designing Hospitals with the Future in Mind

Take a look at the picture to the right. It’s a hospital circa 1910. Do you notice anything special about the photo? If you’re like most people you probably don’t. What makes the hospital interesting are the steps. The implicit message they sent to a prospective patient was that they had to be healthy enough to walk up the steps before the hospital could serve them.

In 1910, Tuberculosis, Typhoid, Diphtheria and Small Pox were the leading causes of death; less than two percent of hospital patients were considered “retired;” and healing was the exception--not the rule. Obviously, a great deal has changed in the past 100 years but it’s important to realize that things are going to change even more in the future and hospitals and healthcare facilities must think through these implications now.

Advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, stem cell research, genomics, robotics, social networking and wireless technologies--to name just a few--are going to revolutionize healthcare in the years and decades ahead. Consider the following:

--Continued exponential advances in computers; Internet bandwidth and sensors are altering how providers monitor patients’ health. Remote monitor tools, for example, not only have the ability to keep a great many patients from needing to visit the hospital in the first place, they will also allow more patients to leave the hospital quicker because the doctor will be able to monitor patients progress from home. Such tools will alter the throughput and turnover rates in hospitals dramatically.

--The price of sequencing the human genome has plummeted from an astronomical cost of $70 million in 2007 to less than $10,000 today. By 2012, the cost is expected to drop below $1000. The amount of genomic information that will soon be available could transform the treatment of some cancers as effectively as Jonas Salk’s vaccination addressed Polio. If so, what does the oncology ward of the future look like?

--In 2005, less than one percent of all prostatectomies were performed by robots. In 2010 this figure will reach 70 percent. As monumental as this change has been it just the first ripple in a real sea change. In the coming years, robots are also expected to perform hysterectomies, heart surgery, and eventually even brain surgery.

The pace of change in the healthcare industry is accelerating exponentially. Those organizations don’t prepare for this future will be left with facilities that are prepared to treat the wrong clients for the wrong diseases with the wrong tools. It will be the metaphorical equivalent of making patients walk up a flight of stairs to receive treatment. The bottom-line is this: if you want your facility to send the right message tomorrow, you must think through these issues today.

Jack Uldrich is a healthcare futurist and author of Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies for Dealing with Emerging Technology. This November, along with Rebecca Hathaway, Senior Vice President, HMC Architects, he will be presenting a session for the Healthcare Design Conference entitled “Designing in an Era of Exponential Change--How to “Jump the Curve” to a Smarter Healthcare Future.”

For other articles relating to the future of health care, check out the following:

Social Networking: The Future of Health Care
The Future of Health Care is as Near as Your iPhone
Healthcare is the “Verge” of Something Big
Here Comes Intelligent Medicine
The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating
Personalized Medicine’s Accelerating Future
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift

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Aging is No Game

It’s now a well accepted fact that the Wii video games are very popular among seniors. Less well appreciated is now games—and specifically video games—will revolutionize the actions and behaviors of seniors in the near future. Posted below for your viewing pleasure is an extraordinarily insightful presentation from Jesse Schell, a professor at Carnegie Mellon and a video game designer himself. I specifically encourage you to watch the last ten minutes of his talk where he discusses how the proliferation of sensors, cheap computer and camera technology and what I call a “video game mind-set” will converge to change people’s behavior in some interesting and unexpected ways.

For example, if your cellphone’s accelerometer monitor how much and how fast you walk can daily exercise be turned into a game. If your grandfather can then compare this exercise performance with that of his friend the two can engage in a healthy competition that will benefit both.

What if the camera on the cellphone can also monitor what items your grandfather purchases at the store. How might this eating habits improve. The same is true with using technology to determine whether he’s taking his drugs at the right time and in the right amount.

The possibilities are virtually limitless. As sensors become to be embedded in shirts suddenly not only can the quantity of exercise be monitored but the quality as well by awarding him points for maintaining his heart rate above a certain level every day. If he does it for 5 out of 7 days in a week, he could be awarded additional points.

It might sound slightly silly but I’m convinced that as sensors come to be embedded in everything from carpets and shoes to pill bottles and pop bottles, the technology is going to be employed in innovative and creative ways which can improve the quality of people’s lives. The only question is whether the aging services facilities around this country will be proactive in engaging in this revolution.

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The Future of Aging
The Future of Aging is About to Get Easier

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ZigBee’s Growing Future

Unbeknownest to most people the number of ZigBee radio chips shipped has been doubling every year in recent years, hitting 20 million in 2009. In 2010, the number is expected to reach 100 million. Soon, it will be 200 million and then 400 million—and, well, if you know how to jump the curve you’ll understanding how the technology will not only effect consumer electronics and utilities but how it may also change human behavior in unexpected ways.

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Nanotechnology: In 250 Words

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New Keynote Speech: The Future Requires Unlearning

As long-time readers know, I have been focused on the concept of “unlearning” for some time now. I dedicated an entire chapter to the idea in my book, Jump the Curve and have also developed a separate website that is serving as a notebook for my forthcoming books on the topic—the first of which will be released later this year.

To this end, I am happy to announce that I have developed a corresponding keynote presentation on the topic and will be partnering with one of America’s top speakers bureaus, Leading Authorities, to bring the talk to the public. It is a perfect motivational or keynote speech for any business, organization or institution that knows it must drive change in order to survive ... but is running into resistance from those “leaders,” managers, employees or customers who refuse to unlearn the old ways of doing business.

Below is a brief description:

The pace of technological change is accelerating. Today’s organizations are living in a world where “constant change is the only constant.” New advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, and information technology are bringing forth exciting and unexpected discoveries every day, while the expansive and growing power of the Internet, social networking and the open-source movement are fueling the fires which threaten to consume much of today’s existing business landscape.

Life-long learning will obviously be more essential than ever in this chaotic and churning environment; but often lost in this new emerging reality of exponential change is the fact that before an organization can seize tomorrow’s opportunities it must first unlearn old, obsolete knowledge as well as unlearn the old ways of doing business.

In this fascinating, informative, entertaining, interactive and enlightening presentation, noted global futurist and best-selling author, Jack Uldrich—who has been hailed by BusinessWeek as “America’s Chief Unlearning Officer”—will not only explain why unlearning is a critical skill for your company or an organization’s employees, he will also demonstrate how unlearning can help:

-- Successfully navigate a future where the pace of scientific and technological knowledge is doubling every seven years;
-- Prepare for competition that doesn’t yet exist; and
-- Seize opportunities which are, today, only on the periphery of their imagination.

If you are interested in learning more about the presentation, I invite you to contact Leading Authorities directly at 1-800-SPEAKER or 1-202-783-0300.

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Moving from the Mainframe Model of Health Care

I encourage anyone interested in understanding the future direction of either healthcare or aging services to watch this insightful and informative 17-minute TED presentation from Eric Dishman.

For other articles relating to the future of health care, check out the following:

Look Inside for the Future of Healthcare
Social Networking: The Future of Health Care
The Future of Health Care is as Near as Your iPhone
Healthcare is the “Verge” of Something Big
Here Comes Intelligent Medicine
The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating
Personalized Medicine’s Accelerating Future
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift

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Look Inside for the Future of Health Care

“If the current rate of miniaturization continues, by 2020 approximately 2.500 transistors—equivalent to microprocessors of the first generation of personal computers—could fit into the area of a typical living cell.” This quote comes this interesting article in Nanowerk.

For other articles relating to the future of health care, check out the following:

Social Networking: The Future of Health Care
The Future of Health Care is as Near as Your iPhone
Healthcare is the “Verge” of Something Big
Here Comes Intelligent Medicine
The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating
Personalized Medicine’s Accelerating Future
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift

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Cisco’s Vision of the Future

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Video Killed the Video Star
Mapping the Future of Video
The Future of the Internet Requires Unlearning

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10 Jobs of the Future

Inventor: Until 1950, “inventor” was listed as an official occupation on the U.S. Census form.  The job title will soon return as a new industrial revolution—fueled by advances in material science, robotics; 3-D printing; information technology; and nanotechnology—takes root and unleashes a wave of new (and practical) inventions.

Video-Book (Vook) editor: As electronic books and e-readers become more popular, a new generation of editors who are skilled at providing readers with information in multiple forms—text, graphics, video, etc—will be required.

Data analyst: The flood of new data which the world will soon experience due to the continued growth of sensors; RFID tags and video will create growing demand for individuals who can not only interpret and decipher this data but who can also display it in new and more meaningful visual formats.

Video game designer: As immersive video becomes more common in schools and businesses due to the continued growth of haptics; augmented reality; and virtual reality, a growing number of video game designers trained in these areas will be required.

Virtual nurse: Continued advances in video; real-time monitoring tools; and expanded bandwidth will make it possible to safely and effectively monitor patients from afar. As a result of increasing health care costs and an aging population, more healthcare providers will turn to “virtual nurses” to monitor patients until the services of an “on-location” healthcare professional are required.

Robot Technicians: As robots become ever more popular and people come to rely on them for everything from cleaning to companionship, they will increasingly become seen as part of the family. Therefore, unlike many consumer products, robots won’t simply be abandoned when a new model arrives. Instead, people will demand their existing robots be upgraded. This will require the services of trained technicians who can upgrade robots with the latest software and hardware.

Custom manufacturer: In the hands of creative individuals, continued advances in software; computer aided design (CAD) and rapid prototype manufacturing will lead to more individuals drawing their livelihood from designing and building custom-made products. Among the areas most impacted will be health care and the arts. Specially, bioengineers will soon learn how to design and build new organs (e.g. hearts, livers, kidneys); while artists will use the tools to create new products and new forms of jewelry and art.

Marine biologist: The incredible diversity of ocean is nowhere near being understood or appreciated. A new generation of marine biologists trained in everything from biomimicry to genomics will remedy this situation and apply many of the lessons of the ocean to problems back on land.

Fish farmer: The world’s growing population will continue to put pressure on fish supplies. In response, companies will turn to fish farms as a sustainable method for meeting this growing demand.

Change management consultant: As the pace of technology accelerates and knowledge becomes obsolete more quickly, the ability to unlearn will be just as critical as the ability to learn. In increasing numbers, organizations will call upon the services of professionals trained in helping people adjust to the notion of “continuing change.”

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Futurist Jack Uldrich’s 20 Technology Predictions for 2010
Futurist Jack Uldrich’s 10 Predictions for the Coming Decade

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Play Off Your Neighbors Strengths

Life on the African savanna can be a dangerous place, especially if you’re an animal. Predators that possess astonishing strength, razor-sharp teeth and claws, and cunning camouflage lurk everywhere and are often just waiting to make some poor, less unfortunate creature on the food chain their next meal without the slightest compunction.

One strategy for surviving in this perilous environment is to be at least one step speedier than your slowest colleague. It is a fitting analogy for today’s business environment and Juan Enriquez, in his book As the Future Catches You, summarized this line of thinking thusly: “Every morning a gazelle wakes and thinks, ‘To stay alive, I have to run faster than the fastest lion.’”

It’s a marvelous strategy provided you are fleet of foot. If not, the strategy is nothing more than a temporary salve for a day or two because as Enriquez adds, “Just over the hill, a lion has realized, ‘I have to run faster than the slowest gazelle, or I’ll go hungry.’”

Fortunately there is a better way of surviving on the African plains, and it offers two distinct advantages over this survival-of-the-fittest strategy. Moreover, it is instructive for businesses and organizations looking to remain competitive in tomorrow’s exponential economy.

What is the strategy? Playing off your neighbors’ strength. Many animals survive on the savanna by working in partnership with other animals. One of the better-known examples is the unusual affiliation among wildebeests, zebras, and ostriches.

Alone each species is vulnerable. Together, though, this unlikely triumvirate forms an impressive survival team. Wildebeests have very good hearing but poor eyesight and a distressingly poor sense of smell. Zebras, on the other hand, only have modest hearing but are blessed with very keen sniffers, while ostriches possess excellent eyesight. By relying on the relative strengths of the other animals, the trio can often detect predators well in advance and take the necessary precautions to keep the threat at bay.

The same tactic can be employed in today’s business environment. The convergence of sensors and information technology within the health-care arena is causing leading medical providers to look to semiconductor companies as new partners.

On a different scale, some companies are even trying to form in-house teams that can do a better job of spotting potential dangers. For instance, Eli Lilly, the large drug manufacturer, now relies on groups of “semi-experts” to help it determine which drug candidates should be allowed to proceed to Phase III clinical trials. (The decision is not inconsequential because of the time, money, and resources at stake.)

To use the animal analogy, imagine marketing executives as having good hearing for helping determine which drugs will do best in the commercial marketplace, molecular biologists as having the best eyesight for determining which drug molecules might be most effective, and regulatory and legal specialists as having the better sense of smell in selecting the drugs FDA regulators might be willing to accept.

Of course, diversity isn’t only useful in warning of lurking dangers; it is also helpful in avoiding traps in the first place. The classic example, which was so adroitly profiled in the classic book Groupthink by Irving Janis, is the Bay of Pigs fiasco--the Kennedy administration’s ill-advised plan to send a group of Cuban exiles into a swampy bay in Cuba in the hopes of sparking a popular uprising against Fidel Castro’s communist regime.

After the humiliating defeat, President Kennedy demanded his administration study the failure of the invasion. What he learned is that he and his staff--many of whom had been schooled at the country’s top universities--were a cohesive group but they all tended to think too much alike. In short, his staff was not diverse enough.

Had Kennedy and his advisors sought the advice of other military experts, Cuban exiles, and other interested and knowledgeable parties outside of their immediate circle, the problem might have been avoided. (Luckily Kennedy learned his lesson and successfully applied many of the findings toward the peaceful resolution of the Cuban missile crisis just a year later.)

The business world is chock full of examples of businesses tapping into the power of diversity. Stephanie Capparell, in her book The Real Pepsi Challenge, documents how as early as the mid-1940s Pepsi had hired African-Americans to figure out how to market Pepsi to “the Negro market,” and the company determined that its continued commitment to diversity was responsible for attributing one full percentage point of its 7.4 percent revenue growth--or $250 million--to new products inspired by diversity.

Similarly Ford Motor Company credits one of its more notable successes of the past few decades to diversity. Many of the unique features of the minivan were not the work of clever and empathetic engineers but rather were the product of multiple minds working together to devise a product that would serve different peoples needs. For instance, disabled workers recommended sliding doors, mothers looking for some help with storing their children’s drinks asked for cup holders, and the elderly needed some assistance in discerning when obstacles might be behind them and requested a sensor that beeped.

Scores of other companies have also moved in a big way to embrace diversity. IBM, Google, and Microsoft among others are moving abroad and are doing so not only to be closer to their markets and have access to inexpensive and talented labor but also because Indians, Chinese, Europeans, and Africans all have different sets of “senses,” and they can see, hear, or smell both threats and opportunities that are not always obvious to others.

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The Future is Gold

Just in time for Valentine’s Day, the World Gold Council, in partnership with the fine folks at Cientifica, have released a new report entitled ”Gold for Gold: Gold and nanotechnology in the age of innovation” suggesting that gold may soon replace diamonds as “a girl’s best friend.”

OK. That’s not really what the report said but here are a few of the highlights about how gold nanoparticles may impact your future:

1. Gold’s inherent bio-compatibility properties make it an ideal candidate for targeting tumors;
2. Gold nanoparticles are being developed to enter inside other diseased cells (The nanoparticles are then heated with infrared light and this “cooks” the cell from the inside out);
3. Soon, gold nanoparticles may create needleless vaccines;
4. Gold-based nanoarrays might also help detect everything from whether a woman is pregnant to dangerous food borne pathogens;
5. Gold-based nanocatalysts are being created to prevent the release of mercury into the atmosphere as well as neutralize other deadly compounds such as carbon monoxide; and
6. Such nanocatalysts might also help purify water by removing arsenic or other common pollutants.

The report also covers other opportunities in fuel cells, coatings, dyes and pigment, solar cells, conductive inks, electronics and high density data storage. All told, its a solid report and offers further evidence that nanotechnology is moving into the commercial mainstream.

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The Future Doesn’t Alway Require the “Big Fix”

Big problems such as health care, feeding the world and addressing climate change don’t necessarily require big solutions. In the 19th century, Ignaz Semmelweis helped save the lives of hundreds of thousands of women by getting doctors to wash their hands prior to assisting in the delivery of a new-born child. (Unfortunately, however, it still required the medical community nearly two decades to unlearn their stubborn and unhealthy habits.)

Alas, in the 21st century, the number of infections in hospitals remains unacceptably high. Why? Many healthcare professionals still aren’t employing good hygiene. If they were better at the simple act of washing their hands, the results would be impressive—on the order of saving thousands of lives annually and preventing billions of dollars in unnecessary costs.

In the field of agriculture, it was the addition of ammonium nitrate—a cheap but effective crop fertilizer—which allowed the world’s farmers to feed billions more people with the same land.

Continued advances in the field of genomics may also continue to increase the yield of corn, wheat and rice by making these crops more efficient in terms of how they utilize water and fertilizer. The result: More people can be fed using the same amount of land but with less impact on the environment.

In the automotive industry, it was the installation of the seat belt that saved the lives of thousands of motorists—even though the device was at first ridiculed as “inconvenient, costly, and just a bunch of damn nonsense” by auto executives. The next life-saving advance could be the introduction of super-strong, super-light nanomaterials.

As strange as it may sound, the problem of hurricanes may also just need a simple fix. As Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner outline in their delightful new book, Super Freakonomics, in may be possible to prevent costly hurricanes (which, since 2005, have inflicted an estimated $153 billion in damage to the United States alone) by deploying a few thousand “hydraulic heads” in those areas where hurricanes start. The devices work by bringing cooler water from the bottom of the ocean to the top thus cooling the surface temperature of the ocean water and preventing hurricanes from forming in the first place. The estimated cost: $1 billion.

On the bigger problem of climate change, Levitt and Dubner also outline the logic behind “Budyko’s Blanket”—a super high hose which would spew sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere—which could theoretically cool the planet for a mere $250 million.

Now, to be fair, both the “hydraulic heads” and “Budyko Blanket” may not work and serious questions remain on both ideas. But the broader point is that when faced with big problems there is absolutely no reason why we must first look to “big answers” as the solution. Often, big problems can be solved with small solutions. After all, as a child, how many of your cuts and bruises were solved with a tender kiss from your mother?

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Technology Lights the Future

Today is the 130th anniversary of the installation of the first electric streetlight in Wabash, Indiana. At the time, it cost $100 to install the light. More interestingly, just a month later the city paid to have four more lights installed. The rest, as they say, is history as the electric light then proceeded to grow exponentially—like lily pads on a pond.

Today, a view of America at night looks like this picture to the right. I ask you to keep in mind this analogy of how “technology can light the future” when considering how rapidly advances such as robotics and smart dust may unfold once the technology reaches a commercially scalable level.

On a different level, you might also want to consider how the electric light changed people’s behavior. For one thing, the light allowed merchants and others to stay open later. Ultimately, it lead to such things as sporting events being played in the evening.

My point is this: When considering how technology expands you also need to consider how widespread adoption of technology might change people’s behavior. For example, continued advances in robotics might allow senior citizens to stay in their homes longer and have an adverse impact on the aging services industry. Similarly, the rapid proliferation of “smart dust” could make once unsafe neighborhoods suddenly safe and lead to more people living in certain urban environments.

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America’s Future: In One Word

This past weekend I read a fascinating interview with Peter Thiel—the co-founder of PayPal and the first investor in FaceBook—in Wired. The article was entitled The Utopian Pessimist.

What I liked about the article is that Thiel questions the assumption—trumpeted by many investors and fund managers—that the stock market will continue to post long-term increases in the range of 6-8%.

It is easy to fall into this trap because for the past 100 years an investment in equities has, in fact, yielded such a healthy return. There is no reason why, however, that this must continue to be the case moving forward into the future. As Nassim Taleb explains in his excellent book, The Black Swan, the future has a way of surprising everyone—and those surprises can be both pleasant and unpleasant.

For instance, what if the past 100 years were just a pleasant surprise? That is what if the 20th century was an anomaly and we were just lucky to have gone from horses and buggies to automobiles, rockets, computers and the Internet in a very short time? As Thiel says, “It’s not automatic that that progress continues.”

It isnt’! But if America wishes to maintain and, possibly even grow, its global position what must it do?

In a word: Innovate.

Earlier today, I explained how the rate of paradigm shifts is accelerating. This implies that an unprecedented amount of economic disruption is headed our way; but rather than be a source of only worry and consternation; farsighted entrepreneurs; investors and, hopefully, policy-makers will also recognize that it also represents a wonderful opportunity.

Advances in information technology promise to revolutionize media, publishing and education. Progress in biotechnology, stem cell research and regenerative medicine portend a glorious new age in preventative health care; and advances in nanotechnology and synthetic biology point the way toward a new, cleaner and, ultimately, more sustainable energy paradigm. (For an idea of the decade ahead, I invite you to review my predictions for 2010-2019).

Many of these developments, in turn, will either converge or spin-off in new and unexpected ways. To capture this promise, though, it is essential to develop an educational; entrepreneurial and political culture which encourages and rewards risk and innovation.

The future of tomorrow will move so fast that innovation is less a characteristic to aspire to and, instead, a trait that must be constantly used; honed and improved upon. In my book, Jump the Curve, I lay out 50 strategies for doing this but I’d like to share three here: 1) Think Like a Child; 2) Develop a Future Bias; and 3) Learn to Unlearn.

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The Future of Paradigm Shifts

In his book, The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil states that “the rate of paradigm shifts is accelerating” and, at the current rate, “doubling about every decade.” This is an extraordinary development.

To help put some perspective on the matter, consider the opening paragraph from L. Gordon Crovitz’s article (From the Roman Codex to the iPad) in today’s Wall Street Journal:

How’s this for human progress? It took about 4,000 years from the invention of writing to the Roman-era codex of bound pages replacing scrolls, 1,000 years from the codex to movable type creating printed books, 500 years from the printing press to the Internet--and only 25 years to the launch of the iPad.

What’s next? My personal opinion is that continue advances in flexible electronics will further change both how information is conveyed and how it is consumed.

But the broader point is that almost every other industry, including health care, energy, and manufacturing, will also experience faster changes in the rate of paradigm shifts. The really important question is this: Are you and your industry prepared?

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Medical Devices’ Innovative Future

Earlier today, I discussed why I feel Apple’s new iPad isn’t quite ready for the prime time. This is in spite of the exciting applications I believe it can—and will—bring to the healthcare sector. But in this post, I’d like to turn from external devices and instead look at the amazing opportunities which await internal devices and the medical device industry in general.

Two recent articles shed light on some future possibilities. First,the development of new piezoelectric nanoribbons have lead to the development of power-generating rubber films. One possibility is for these materials to be attached to medical devices thereby eliminating the need for batteries. Imagine, for example, a pacemaker that could harvest the mechanical energy from a beating heart or an expanding lung and translate that into electrical energy to power a pacemaker? At a minimum, the need to perform a surgical operation to replace the battery will be eliminated. On a larger scale, however, such an advance could also open a host of opportunities for medical devices.

Taken a step further the same technology could power an insect-like “microid” which could patrol the human body looking for, reporting on, and, ultimately, eliminating disease-causing agents. Such an idea may sound far-fetched to some but Japanese researchers have already created insect-sized robots that can move about inside the human body.

The bottomline is that the convergence of new nanomaterials; flexible electronics; smaller, faster and more powerful microprocessors; and advanced robotics portend a golden age of innovation within the medical device industry.

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iPad’s Foldable Future

Will Apple’s latest gadget, the iPad, become a commercial success? I don’t know. My personal guess is that it will be moderately successful in the short to mid-term. The applications for gaming, e-books and in the health care arena are all very promising and the developer community is sure to come up with some amazing (and yet-to-be imagined) “apps” for the device.

Longer-term, though, I believe the iPad will only be successful if it can transition to flexible electronics. Specifically, I think the device will need to be able to fold up and fit in a person’s pocket before it becomes a truly revolutionary device. Steve Job’s statement that the device fits a niche between the mobile phone and the laptop computer is correct, but he misses the broader point by not recognizing that this will soon be a false choice.

With the advent of flexible electronics, a single device should be able to morph into different objects depending upon need. (As Jobs said yesterday, “It’s phenomenal to hold the Internet in your hand.” It is but what I think people really want is the ability to hold the Internet in their hands and, afterwards, fold it up and put it away in their pocket or purse.)

I recognize that the technology does not yet exist (at least a commercially-scalable and affordable level) but it is coming as this visionary video from Nokia suggests:

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Think About the Future—By Asking Questions Today

As a professional futurist, I think about the future all the time. I realize that most people don’t have this luxury but I also don’t really believe that this trait is a “luxury.” If you want to succeed in the future, you must think about the future today.

I recently watched a wonderful 6-minute video on Seth Godin’s new book, Linchpin. The video consists of nothing more than a series of questions but many of them can be used to prompt your thinking about the future.

Here, for reading—and thinking—enjoyment, are some of the more pertinent questions:

1. What will you do when gas is $10 a gallon? (I would add the following question as well: What will you do when it is $1 a gallon?)
2. What will you do when electricity is free?
3. What will you do when computational power is a 1000 times more powerful?
4. Is it likely your organization will have the same products as bestsellers in 10 years?
5. Where will the replacements come from, and when?
6. If we got rid of textbooks, what would be the best way to replace them?
7. If you discovered your biggest competitor was successfully developing a product that reinvents the rules of your industry, what would you do?
8. Could you do the same thing if the competitor wasn’t about to do this?

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The Hospital of the Future

For the past two days I have been in California working with a well-known construction company and architectural firm designing the hospital of the future. Due to the proprietary nature of project, I can’t go into specifics with this post but I always begin such projects from the premise: What must we unlearn? 

For example, perhaps, we should unlearn the idea of who the customer is. Every hospital claims it wants to “serve the community.” If they are serious about this idea than they must also focus on non-customers. in other words, a true community hospital needs to continuously look for ways to “push” preventative information medicine out into the broader community so that its citizens never need to visit the hospital in the first place.

Hospitals must also unlearn the idea of the doctor-patient relationship. Today, patients and their social networking often know just as much—if not a lot more—about their disease than the doctor. The hospital of the future must acknowledge this reality and be designed in such a way that information can flow freely between all parties.

Another thing hospitals must unlearn is the waiting room. One strategy to think differently about the hospital of the future is to focus on the “exit” room. What information does the patient need so that he or she doesn’t need to return to the hospital?

I have a lot more ideas but I’d love to hear your thoughts on this subject.

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Jack Uldrich’s 10 Predictions for the Decade of the “Turbulent Teen’s”

”Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” It was the ancient Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu who uttered these wise words. As a professional futurist, I always keep this quote in the back of my mind and remind my audiences that I am not in the business of making predictions. Instead, I offer my clients a forecast which includes a broad range of future possibilities.

Nevertheless, I understand the appeal of predictions and do feel they can play a limited role in helping businesses, corporations, NGOs, and governments more realistically think about the future.

Therefore, much as I did last month with my 20 Predictions for 2010, I would now like to offer my humble predictions for how the following decade may unfold—all the time remembering that the future will most likely be shaped by those ”Black Swans” which none of us see coming.

Here then are some of my predictions to get your “future juices” flowing:

2010: The term “augmented reality” will be the year’s big buzzword. Augmented reality apps such as Yelp Monocle and Wikitude World Browser will continue to grow, but the year’s biggest hit will be the yet-to-be-released TAT Augmented ID—which uses face-recognition software to display information about the person being viewed. By the end of the decade, health care professionals will be able to display a patient’s entire medical history on a flexible electronic device which they can fold up and carry with them at all times.

2011: “Vooks”—a combination between an electronic book and a video—will become increasingly popular. By the end of the decade, a number of schools will be using the devices to provide students a deeper, more meaningful learning experience.

2012: College graduates will begin identify a variety of new career possibilities. Some of the more popular future jobs include genetic data counselors; privacy data consultants; 3-D gaming software enginners; rapid prototype manufacturers and climate geoengineers. By the middle of the decade, frustrated by society’s inability and unwillingness to seriously change their behavior in the face of climate change, Al Gore will reverse his position and become an advocate of limited climate geoengineering—the idea of using technology on a grand scale to modify the natural environment.

2013: A truce in the “War on Cancer” will be called as advances in gene therapy and nanomedicine begin addressing cancer at the molecular level. Cancer will still exist but the new paradigm will be premised on treating cancer on an ongoing basis. (In this way, it will be similar to how we now treat diabetes.) By the end of the decade, chemotherapy will be viewed as a crude and blunt instrument.

2014: A combination of radical advances in solar and desalination technology will afford an increasing number of farmers—especially those near coastal areas—access to cheap and reliable amounts of fresh water. By the end of the decade, however, climate scientists will become increasingly concerned that the amount of water being diverted from the world’s ocean is having a harmful effect on a number of ocean creatures. On a different front, advances in the field of synthetic biology will now be regularly supplying airlines with jet fuel produced from biomass.

2015: Due to a plethora of medical advances in gene therapy, biotechnology, nanomedicine, stem cell research and regenerative medicine, life expectancy will continue to grow faster than most demographers has estimated. Congress is finally forced to accept this reality and indexes Social Security and Medicaid benefits to the annual upward adjustments in life expectancy. AARP members complain loudly and use the latest social media tools to bolster their cause but younger more tech-savvy voters use new and even more effective data mining tools to out-organizer the “geezer geeks.”

2016: In the face of the growing environmental costs of producing, processing, shipping, packaging and storing meat, the FDA approves lab-grown pork for the commercial marketplace. PETA applauds the move but Greenpeace vows to fight the growing trend and labels lab-grown meat as “Frankenfood II.” By this time in the decade, a major biological attack will have occurred somewhere in the developed world and a number of democratic governments will have responded by limiting personal freedoms in exchange for greater security. (Advances in predictive algorithms; data mining; and face and voice recognition; cheap camera; and sensor technology will make security technology very effective.)

2017: Time Magazine will be in serious discussions about ending the print version of its magazine and will name “The Robot” as its 2017 “Person of the Year.” Space flight—at least into the outer atmosphere—will become affordable for upper middle class individuals.

2018: Diamonds will no longer be a “girl’s best friend.” The natural diamond market will collapse in the face of the superiority of synthetic diamonds. On a different note, startling progress in the field of tissue regeneration will have eliminated organ shortages and made organ donations as irrelevant as radiation therapy.

2019: The decade will be come to be referred to as “the turbulent teens” due to the growing maturity of such countries as India and Brazil; the wide-spread economic disruption wrought by technological advancement; and a renewed sense of optimism due to the fact that so many things once deemed “impossible” are now coming to fruition.

Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.

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