Strategies for innovating into the future:
Global futurist and author Jack Uldrich offers essential strategic information on nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, RFID and many other future technologies to help you prosper as exponential trends converge at this unique moment in history.
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Industries: Health Care
10 Jobs of the Future
Inventor: Until 1950, “inventor” was listed as an official occupation on the U.S. Census form. The job title will soon return as a new industrial revolution—fueled by advances in material science, robotics; 3-D printing; information technology; and nanotechnology—takes root and unleashes a wave of new (and practical) inventions.
Video-Book (Vook) editor: As electronic books and e-readers become more popular, a new generation of editors who are skilled at providing readers with information in multiple forms—text, graphics, video, etc—will be required.
Data analyst: The flood of new data which the world will soon experience due to the continued growth of sensors; RFID tags and video will create growing demand for individuals who can not only interpret and decipher this data but who can also display it in new and more meaningful visual formats.
Video game designer: As immersive video becomes more common in schools and businesses due to the continued growth of haptics; augmented reality; and virtual reality, a growing number of video game designers trained in these areas will be required.
Virtual nurse: Continued advances in video; real-time monitoring tools; and expanded bandwidth will make it possible to safely and effectively monitor patients from afar. As a result of increasing health care costs and an aging population, more healthcare providers will turn to “virtual nurses” to monitor patients until the services of an “on-location” healthcare professional are required.
Robot Technicians: As robots become ever more popular and people come to rely on them for everything from cleaning to companionship, they will increasingly become seen as part of the family. Therefore, unlike many consumer products, robots won’t simply be abandoned when a new model arrives. Instead, people will demand their existing robots be upgraded. This will require the services of trained technicians who can upgrade robots with the latest software and hardware.
Custom manufacturer: In the hands of creative individuals, continued advances in software; computer aided design (CAD) and rapid prototype manufacturing will lead to more individuals drawing their livelihood from designing and building custom-made products. Among the areas most impacted will be health care and the arts. Specially, bioengineers will soon learn how to design and build new organs (e.g. hearts, livers, kidneys); while artists will use the tools to create new products and new forms of jewelry and art.
Marine biologist: The incredible diversity of ocean is nowhere near being understood or appreciated. A new generation of marine biologists trained in everything from biomimicry to genomics will remedy this situation and apply many of the lessons of the ocean to problems back on land.
Fish farmer: The world’s growing population will continue to put pressure on fish supplies. In response, companies will turn to fish farms as a sustainable method for meeting this growing demand.
Change management consultant: As the pace of technology accelerates and knowledge becomes obsolete more quickly, the ability to unlearn will be just as critical as the ability to learn. In increasing numbers, organizations will call upon the services of professionals trained in helping people adjust to the notion of “continuing change.”
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Play Off Your Neighbors Strengths
Life on the African savanna can be a dangerous place, especially if you’re an animal. Predators that possess astonishing strength, razor-sharp teeth and claws, and cunning camouflage lurk everywhere and are often just waiting to make some poor, less unfortunate creature on the food chain their next meal without the slightest compunction.
One strategy for surviving in this perilous environment is to be at least one step speedier than your slowest colleague. It is a fitting analogy for today’s business environment and Juan Enriquez, in his book As the Future Catches You, summarized this line of thinking thusly: “Every morning a gazelle wakes and thinks, ‘To stay alive, I have to run faster than the fastest lion.’”
It’s a marvelous strategy provided you are fleet of foot. If not, the strategy is nothing more than a temporary salve for a day or two because as Enriquez adds, “Just over the hill, a lion has realized, ‘I have to run faster than the slowest gazelle, or I’ll go hungry.’”
Fortunately there is a better way of surviving on the African plains, and it offers two distinct advantages over this survival-of-the-fittest strategy. Moreover, it is instructive for businesses and organizations looking to remain competitive in tomorrow’s exponential economy.
What is the strategy? Playing off your neighbors’ strength. Many animals survive on the savanna by working in partnership with other animals. One of the better-known examples is the unusual affiliation among wildebeests, zebras, and ostriches.
Alone each species is vulnerable. Together, though, this unlikely triumvirate forms an impressive survival team. Wildebeests have very good hearing but poor eyesight and a distressingly poor sense of smell. Zebras, on the other hand, only have modest hearing but are blessed with very keen sniffers, while ostriches possess excellent eyesight. By relying on the relative strengths of the other animals, the trio can often detect predators well in advance and take the necessary precautions to keep the threat at bay.
The same tactic can be employed in today’s business environment. The convergence of sensors and information technology within the health-care arena is causing leading medical providers to look to semiconductor companies as new partners.
On a different scale, some companies are even trying to form in-house teams that can do a better job of spotting potential dangers. For instance, Eli Lilly, the large drug manufacturer, now relies on groups of “semi-experts” to help it determine which drug candidates should be allowed to proceed to Phase III clinical trials. (The decision is not inconsequential because of the time, money, and resources at stake.)
To use the animal analogy, imagine marketing executives as having good hearing for helping determine which drugs will do best in the commercial marketplace, molecular biologists as having the best eyesight for determining which drug molecules might be most effective, and regulatory and legal specialists as having the better sense of smell in selecting the drugs FDA regulators might be willing to accept.
Of course, diversity isn’t only useful in warning of lurking dangers; it is also helpful in avoiding traps in the first place. The classic example, which was so adroitly profiled in the classic book Groupthink by Irving Janis, is the Bay of Pigs fiasco--the Kennedy administration’s ill-advised plan to send a group of Cuban exiles into a swampy bay in Cuba in the hopes of sparking a popular uprising against Fidel Castro’s communist regime.
After the humiliating defeat, President Kennedy demanded his administration study the failure of the invasion. What he learned is that he and his staff--many of whom had been schooled at the country’s top universities--were a cohesive group but they all tended to think too much alike. In short, his staff was not diverse enough.
Had Kennedy and his advisors sought the advice of other military experts, Cuban exiles, and other interested and knowledgeable parties outside of their immediate circle, the problem might have been avoided. (Luckily Kennedy learned his lesson and successfully applied many of the findings toward the peaceful resolution of the Cuban missile crisis just a year later.)
The business world is chock full of examples of businesses tapping into the power of diversity. Stephanie Capparell, in her book The Real Pepsi Challenge, documents how as early as the mid-1940s Pepsi had hired African-Americans to figure out how to market Pepsi to “the Negro market,” and the company determined that its continued commitment to diversity was responsible for attributing one full percentage point of its 7.4 percent revenue growth--or $250 million--to new products inspired by diversity.
Similarly Ford Motor Company credits one of its more notable successes of the past few decades to diversity. Many of the unique features of the minivan were not the work of clever and empathetic engineers but rather were the product of multiple minds working together to devise a product that would serve different peoples needs. For instance, disabled workers recommended sliding doors, mothers looking for some help with storing their children’s drinks asked for cup holders, and the elderly needed some assistance in discerning when obstacles might be behind them and requested a sensor that beeped.
Scores of other companies have also moved in a big way to embrace diversity. IBM, Google, and Microsoft among others are moving abroad and are doing so not only to be closer to their markets and have access to inexpensive and talented labor but also because Indians, Chinese, Europeans, and Africans all have different sets of “senses,” and they can see, hear, or smell both threats and opportunities that are not always obvious to others.
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The Future is Gold
Just in time for Valentine’s Day, the World Gold Council, in partnership with the fine folks at Cientifica, have released a new report entitled ”Gold for Gold: Gold and nanotechnology in the age of innovation” suggesting that gold may soon replace diamonds as “a girl’s best friend.”
OK. That’s not really what the report said but here are a few of the highlights about how gold nanoparticles may impact your future:
1. Gold’s inherent bio-compatibility properties make it an ideal candidate for targeting tumors;
2. Gold nanoparticles are being developed to enter inside other diseased cells (The nanoparticles are then heated with infrared light and this “cooks” the cell from the inside out);
3. Soon, gold nanoparticles may create needleless vaccines;
4. Gold-based nanoarrays might also help detect everything from whether a woman is pregnant to dangerous food borne pathogens;
5. Gold-based nanocatalysts are being created to prevent the release of mercury into the atmosphere as well as neutralize other deadly compounds such as carbon monoxide; and
6. Such nanocatalysts might also help purify water by removing arsenic or other common pollutants.
The report also covers other opportunities in fuel cells, coatings, dyes and pigment, solar cells, conductive inks, electronics and high density data storage. All told, its a solid report and offers further evidence that nanotechnology is moving into the commercial mainstream.
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The Future Doesn’t Alway Require the “Big Fix”
Big problems such as health care, feeding the world and addressing climate change don’t necessarily require big solutions. In the 19th century, Ignaz Semmelweis helped save the lives of hundreds of thousands of women by getting doctors to wash their hands prior to assisting in the delivery of a new-born child. (Unfortunately, however, it still required the medical community nearly two decades to unlearn their stubborn and unhealthy habits.)
Alas, in the 21st century, the number of infections in hospitals remains unacceptably high. Why? Many healthcare professionals still aren’t employing good hygiene. If they were better at the simple act of washing their hands, the results would be impressive—on the order of saving thousands of lives annually and preventing billions of dollars in unnecessary costs.
In the field of agriculture, it was the addition of ammonium nitrate—a cheap but effective crop fertilizer—which allowed the world’s farmers to feed billions more people with the same land.
Continued advances in the field of genomics may also continue to increase the yield of corn, wheat and rice by making these crops more efficient in terms of how they utilize water and fertilizer. The result: More people can be fed using the same amount of land but with less impact on the environment.
In the automotive industry, it was the installation of the seat belt that saved the lives of thousands of motorists—even though the device was at first ridiculed as “inconvenient, costly, and just a bunch of damn nonsense” by auto executives. The next life-saving advance could be the introduction of super-strong, super-light nanomaterials.
As strange as it may sound, the problem of hurricanes may also just need a simple fix. As Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner outline in their delightful new book, Super Freakonomics, in may be possible to prevent costly hurricanes (which, since 2005, have inflicted an estimated $153 billion in damage to the United States alone) by deploying a few thousand “hydraulic heads” in those areas where hurricanes start. The devices work by bringing cooler water from the bottom of the ocean to the top thus cooling the surface temperature of the ocean water and preventing hurricanes from forming in the first place. The estimated cost: $1 billion.
On the bigger problem of climate change, Levitt and Dubner also outline the logic behind “Budyko’s Blanket”—a super high hose which would spew sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere—which could theoretically cool the planet for a mere $250 million.
Now, to be fair, both the “hydraulic heads” and “Budyko Blanket” may not work and serious questions remain on both ideas. But the broader point is that when faced with big problems there is absolutely no reason why we must first look to “big answers” as the solution. Often, big problems can be solved with small solutions. After all, as a child, how many of your cuts and bruises were solved with a tender kiss from your mother?
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Technology Lights the Future
Today is the 130th anniversary of the installation of the first electric streetlight in Wabash, Indiana. At the time, it cost $100 to install the light. More interestingly, just a month later the city paid to have four more lights installed. The rest, as they say, is history as the electric light then proceeded to grow exponentially—like lily pads on a pond.
Today, a view of America at night looks like this picture to the right. I ask you to keep in mind this analogy of how “technology can light the future” when considering how rapidly advances such as robotics and smart dust may unfold once the technology reaches a commercially scalable level.
On a different level, you might also want to consider how the electric light changed people’s behavior. For one thing, the light allowed merchants and others to stay open later. Ultimately, it lead to such things as sporting events being played in the evening.
My point is this: When considering how technology expands you also need to consider how widespread adoption of technology might change people’s behavior. For example, continued advances in robotics might allow senior citizens to stay in their homes longer and have an adverse impact on the aging services industry. Similarly, the rapid proliferation of “smart dust” could make once unsafe neighborhoods suddenly safe and lead to more people living in certain urban environments.
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America’s Future: In One Word
This past weekend I read a fascinating interview with Peter Thiel—the co-founder of PayPal and the first investor in FaceBook—in Wired. The article was entitled The Utopian Pessimist.
What I liked about the article is that Thiel questions the assumption—trumpeted by many investors and fund managers—that the stock market will continue to post long-term increases in the range of 6-8%.
It is easy to fall into this trap because for the past 100 years an investment in equities has, in fact, yielded such a healthy return. There is no reason why, however, that this must continue to be the case moving forward into the future. As Nassim Taleb explains in his excellent book, The Black Swan, the future has a way of surprising everyone—and those surprises can be both pleasant and unpleasant.
For instance, what if the past 100 years were just a pleasant surprise? That is what if the 20th century was an anomaly and we were just lucky to have gone from horses and buggies to automobiles, rockets, computers and the Internet in a very short time? As Thiel says, “It’s not automatic that that progress continues.”
It isnt’! But if America wishes to maintain and, possibly even grow, its global position what must it do?
In a word: Innovate.
Earlier today, I explained how the rate of paradigm shifts is accelerating. This implies that an unprecedented amount of economic disruption is headed our way; but rather than be a source of only worry and consternation; farsighted entrepreneurs; investors and, hopefully, policy-makers will also recognize that it also represents a wonderful opportunity.
Advances in information technology promise to revolutionize media, publishing and education. Progress in biotechnology, stem cell research and regenerative medicine portend a glorious new age in preventative health care; and advances in nanotechnology and synthetic biology point the way toward a new, cleaner and, ultimately, more sustainable energy paradigm. (For an idea of the decade ahead, I invite you to review my predictions for 2010-2019).
Many of these developments, in turn, will either converge or spin-off in new and unexpected ways. To capture this promise, though, it is essential to develop an educational; entrepreneurial and political culture which encourages and rewards risk and innovation.
The future of tomorrow will move so fast that innovation is less a characteristic to aspire to and, instead, a trait that must be constantly used; honed and improved upon. In my book, Jump the Curve, I lay out 50 strategies for doing this but I’d like to share three here: 1) Think Like a Child; 2) Develop a Future Bias; and 3) Learn to Unlearn.
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The Future of Paradigm Shifts
In his book, The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil states that “the rate of paradigm shifts is accelerating” and, at the current rate, “doubling about every decade.” This is an extraordinary development.
To help put some perspective on the matter, consider the opening paragraph from L. Gordon Crovitz’s article (From the Roman Codex to the iPad) in today’s Wall Street Journal:
How’s this for human progress? It took about 4,000 years from the invention of writing to the Roman-era codex of bound pages replacing scrolls, 1,000 years from the codex to movable type creating printed books, 500 years from the printing press to the Internet--and only 25 years to the launch of the iPad.
What’s next? My personal opinion is that continue advances in flexible electronics will further change both how information is conveyed and how it is consumed.
But the broader point is that almost every other industry, including health care, energy, and manufacturing, will also experience faster changes in the rate of paradigm shifts. The really important question is this: Are you and your industry prepared?
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Medical Devices’ Innovative Future
Earlier today, I discussed why I feel Apple’s new iPad isn’t quite ready for the prime time. This is in spite of the exciting applications I believe it can—and will—bring to the healthcare sector. But in this post, I’d like to turn from external devices and instead look at the amazing opportunities which await internal devices and the medical device industry in general.
Two recent articles shed light on some future possibilities. First,the development of new piezoelectric nanoribbons have lead to the development of power-generating rubber films. One possibility is for these materials to be attached to medical devices thereby eliminating the need for batteries. Imagine, for example, a pacemaker that could harvest the mechanical energy from a beating heart or an expanding lung and translate that into electrical energy to power a pacemaker? At a minimum, the need to perform a surgical operation to replace the battery will be eliminated. On a larger scale, however, such an advance could also open a host of opportunities for medical devices.
Taken a step further the same technology could power an insect-like “microid” which could patrol the human body looking for, reporting on, and, ultimately, eliminating disease-causing agents. Such an idea may sound far-fetched to some but Japanese researchers have already created insect-sized robots that can move about inside the human body.
The bottomline is that the convergence of new nanomaterials; flexible electronics; smaller, faster and more powerful microprocessors; and advanced robotics portend a golden age of innovation within the medical device industry.
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iPad’s Foldable Future
Will Apple’s latest gadget, the iPad, become a commercial success? I don’t know. My personal guess is that it will be moderately successful in the short to mid-term. The applications for gaming, e-books and in the health care arena are all very promising and the developer community is sure to come up with some amazing (and yet-to-be imagined) “apps” for the device.
Longer-term, though, I believe the iPad will only be successful if it can transition to flexible electronics. Specifically, I think the device will need to be able to fold up and fit in a person’s pocket before it becomes a truly revolutionary device. Steve Job’s statement that the device fits a niche between the mobile phone and the laptop computer is correct, but he misses the broader point by not recognizing that this will soon be a false choice.
With the advent of flexible electronics, a single device should be able to morph into different objects depending upon need. (As Jobs said yesterday, “It’s phenomenal to hold the Internet in your hand.” It is but what I think people really want is the ability to hold the Internet in their hands and, afterwards, fold it up and put it away in their pocket or purse.)
I recognize that the technology does not yet exist (at least a commercially-scalable and affordable level) but it is coming as this visionary video from Nokia suggests:
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Think About the Future—By Asking Questions Today
As a professional futurist, I think about the future all the time. I realize that most people don’t have this luxury but I also don’t really believe that this trait is a “luxury.” If you want to succeed in the future, you must think about the future today.
I recently watched a wonderful 6-minute video on Seth Godin’s new book, Linchpin. The video consists of nothing more than a series of questions but many of them can be used to prompt your thinking about the future.
Here, for reading—and thinking—enjoyment, are some of the more pertinent questions:
1. What will you do when gas is $10 a gallon? (I would add the following question as well: What will you do when it is $1 a gallon?)
2. What will you do when electricity is free?
3. What will you do when computational power is a 1000 times more powerful?
4. Is it likely your organization will have the same products as bestsellers in 10 years?
5. Where will the replacements come from, and when?
6. If we got rid of textbooks, what would be the best way to replace them?
7. If you discovered your biggest competitor was successfully developing a product that reinvents the rules of your industry, what would you do?
8. Could you do the same thing if the competitor wasn’t about to do this?
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The Hospital of the Future
For the past two days I have been in California working with a well-known construction company and architectural firm designing the hospital of the future. Due to the proprietary nature of project, I can’t go into specifics with this post but I always begin such projects from the premise: What must we unlearn?
For example, perhaps, we should unlearn the idea of who the customer is. Every hospital claims it wants to “serve the community.” If they are serious about this idea than they must also focus on non-customers. in other words, a true community hospital needs to continuously look for ways to “push” preventative information medicine out into the broader community so that its citizens never need to visit the hospital in the first place.
Hospitals must also unlearn the idea of the doctor-patient relationship. Today, patients and their social networking often know just as much—if not a lot more—about their disease than the doctor. The hospital of the future must acknowledge this reality and be designed in such a way that information can flow freely between all parties.
Another thing hospitals must unlearn is the waiting room. One strategy to think differently about the hospital of the future is to focus on the “exit” room. What information does the patient need so that he or she doesn’t need to return to the hospital?
I have a lot more ideas but I’d love to hear your thoughts on this subject.
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Jack Uldrich’s 10 Predictions for the Decade of the “Turbulent Teen’s”
”Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” It was the ancient Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu who uttered these wise words. As a professional futurist, I always keep this quote in the back of my mind and remind my audiences that I am not in the business of making predictions. Instead, I offer my clients a forecast which includes a broad range of future possibilities.
Nevertheless, I understand the appeal of predictions and do feel they can play a limited role in helping businesses, corporations, NGOs, and governments more realistically think about the future.
Therefore, much as I did last month with my 20 Predictions for 2010, I would now like to offer my humble predictions for how the following decade may unfold—all the time remembering that the future will most likely be shaped by those ”Black Swans” which none of us see coming.
Here then are some of my predictions to get your “future juices” flowing:
2010: The term “augmented reality” will be the year’s big buzzword. Augmented reality apps such as Yelp Monocle and Wikitude World Browser will continue to grow, but the year’s biggest hit will be the yet-to-be-released TAT Augmented ID—which uses face-recognition software to display information about the person being viewed. By the end of the decade, health care professionals will be able to display a patient’s entire medical history on a flexible electronic device which they can fold up and carry with them at all times.
2011: “Vooks”—a combination between an electronic book and a video—will become increasingly popular. By the end of the decade, a number of schools will be using the devices to provide students a deeper, more meaningful learning experience.
2012: College graduates will begin identify a variety of new career possibilities. Some of the more popular future jobs include genetic data counselors; privacy data consultants; 3-D gaming software enginners; rapid prototype manufacturers and climate geoengineers. By the middle of the decade, frustrated by society’s inability and unwillingness to seriously change their behavior in the face of climate change, Al Gore will reverse his position and become an advocate of limited climate geoengineering—the idea of using technology on a grand scale to modify the natural environment.
2013: A truce in the “War on Cancer” will be called as advances in gene therapy and nanomedicine begin addressing cancer at the molecular level. Cancer will still exist but the new paradigm will be premised on treating cancer on an ongoing basis. (In this way, it will be similar to how we now treat diabetes.) By the end of the decade, chemotherapy will be viewed as a crude and blunt instrument.
2014: A combination of radical advances in solar and desalination technology will afford an increasing number of farmers—especially those near coastal areas—access to cheap and reliable amounts of fresh water. By the end of the decade, however, climate scientists will become increasingly concerned that the amount of water being diverted from the world’s ocean is having a harmful effect on a number of ocean creatures. On a different front, advances in the field of synthetic biology will now be regularly supplying airlines with jet fuel produced from biomass.
2015: Due to a plethora of medical advances in gene therapy, biotechnology, nanomedicine, stem cell research and regenerative medicine, life expectancy will continue to grow faster than most demographers has estimated. Congress is finally forced to accept this reality and indexes Social Security and Medicaid benefits to the annual upward adjustments in life expectancy. AARP members complain loudly and use the latest social media tools to bolster their cause but younger more tech-savvy voters use new and even more effective data mining tools to out-organizer the “geezer geeks.”
2016: In the face of the growing environmental costs of producing, processing, shipping, packaging and storing meat, the FDA approves lab-grown pork for the commercial marketplace. PETA applauds the move but Greenpeace vows to fight the growing trend and labels lab-grown meat as “Frankenfood II.” By this time in the decade, a major biological attack will have occurred somewhere in the developed world and a number of democratic governments will have responded by limiting personal freedoms in exchange for greater security. (Advances in predictive algorithms; data mining; and face and voice recognition; cheap camera; and sensor technology will make security technology very effective.)
2017: Time Magazine will be in serious discussions about ending the print version of its magazine and will name “The Robot” as its 2017 “Person of the Year.” Space flight—at least into the outer atmosphere—will become affordable for upper middle class individuals.
2018: Diamonds will no longer be a “girl’s best friend.” The natural diamond market will collapse in the face of the superiority of synthetic diamonds. On a different note, startling progress in the field of tissue regeneration will have eliminated organ shortages and made organ donations as irrelevant as radiation therapy.
2019: The decade will be come to be referred to as “the turbulent teens” due to the growing maturity of such countries as India and Brazil; the wide-spread economic disruption wrought by technological advancement; and a renewed sense of optimism due to the fact that so many things once deemed “impossible” are now coming to fruition.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
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The Future Will Soon Flex It’s Muscles
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Robots’ More “Socially Aware” Future
Many people, myself included, expect robots to become more popular in the coming decade. One reason I’m optimistic is because social scientists (such as cultural anthropologists) are discovering how to make robots more acceptable in a variety of settings. According to this article, some hospital workers love robots while others hate them.
The difference is that the workers who hate robots hate them because they are unable to adjust their behavior to the appropriate situation. For example, if a doctor is talking in a hushed tone to a patient’s family in a cancer ward, the robots should also be quiet—but often it isn’t. As computer and sensor technology as well as algorithms get better expect many of these problems to be mitigated. The result: more robots in hospitals; aging facilities; schools and even our homes.
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Want to Know Your Future? Ask Your Phone
New technology is using “mobility events” to make your smartphone even smarter. According to this article, researchers in the Netherlands have created a system that learns users’ behavior patterns to provide them with an enhanced cellphone service.
The example cited in the article involves your “going to work” routine (i.e. opening your garage, getting in the car; stopping at the local store to buy a lotto ticket, etc) and explains how your phone might be deduce what will happen next. For example, you may drive through an area with poor coverage so your phone will wait to start uploading a large file. Before long, innovative marketers will also be able to exploit this information. For instance, it may know that you also enjoy a Starbucks latte every so often and a coupon for 15% off will be sent to you whenever your with a mile of one of their stores.
I would encourage you to consider how this and related technology may also help senior citizens. I envision the day when your phone will notice that you haven’t called your grandchild in a few days and will prompt you with a reminder. Or, your phone—due to the accelerometers—may also notice that your stride is beginning to wobble and will send an alert to your doctor that you may be experiencing the early stages of a stroke.
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How Longer Life Expectancies Might Change the Future
The Wharton School of Business recently published an formative and insightful article entitled So You Want to Live to 100? More of Us Will, and Here is What Life Might Look Like.
Among the key findings:
1. Governments will need to impose radical changes in public policy.
2. Older workers will increasingly be managed by younger supervisors.
3. There will be a growth in jobs that require only 15, 20 or 25 hours of work a week.
4. The 21st century may be a “century of redistribution of work” in which individuals will will combine work, education, leisure and child-rearing (and parent care) in varying amounts at different times in their lives.
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The Future of Aging
The Future of Aging is About to Get Easier
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Jack Uldrich’s 2010 Technology Forecast & Predictions
#1: By the end of 2010, one-third of all automotive ads will focus exclusively on software-driven features that emphasize future car’s ability to interpret, react and connect to the external environment. Far less emphasis will be placed on car’s physical appearance and performance.
#2: One 4-year college will decrease its tuition by more than 5% in 2010 citing growing pressure from online universities; 10 universities will follow Princeton’s lead and begin distributing e-Books (such as the Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader) to incoming students; and at least 100 other colleges and universities will follow Boston University’s lead in eliminating email addresses for incoming freshmen.
#3: The sale of solar cells will grow faster than expected due to innovations in new financing models that minimize or eliminate altogether the large up-front costs currently associated with installing solar modules.
#4: The first fully robotic vehicle will become operational in Iraq and Afghanistan and will successfully deliver military supplies more than 25 miles without the aid of any humans.
#5: A socially-networked song in which none of the band members knew one another prior to the song’s release will become a Billboard Top Ten hit. The band will attempt to conduct a conventional tour but will soon breakup citing “artistic differences.” The real cause: they find they just don’t like one another.
#6:The first cyborg soldier—with above average human capabilities in terms of strength, speed and/or vision—will return to active duty. Nicknamed “Steve Austin” by his fellow soldiers; the technology inside “the bionic man” (or bionic woman) will cost far less than 6 million dollars.
#7: An amateur scientist using cheap supercomputers accessed through “the cloud” will make a major scientific discovery. Her discovery will have initially been dismissed by peer-reviewed journals but hailed by the growing number of “open-science” advocates.
#8: A full two years before its first-ever “Space Tourism” launch, Galactic Suite Ltd will lower the price of its three-day trip to space from $4.4 million to $2 million.
#9: A physician in India will perform a prostectonomy on a patient in a different country using only a high-speed Internet connection and da Vinci robotic surgical device. The “medical tourist” in Sri Lanka will return to the United States the following day.
#10: A new iPhone app will be created which overlays a “Nascar-like” suit over the images of Congressmen and other prominent politicians to reveal from whom they are receiving campaign contributions. The size of the “patch” will vary according to the amount of campaign contributions they have received from the organization. The new app will bring heightened attention to the burgeoning field of augmented reality.
#11: An RFID chip embedded in the arm of an elderly Alzheimer patient will be credited with saving the man from freezing to death after he strolled away from his residence in the middle of the night and became disoriented.
#12: A leading concrete company will call for a ban on carbon dioxide emissions from concrete because its nanotechnology-enable concrete will be certified as a “CO2 neutral.”
#13: Hype surround algae’s promise as the “bio-fuel of the future” will grow hot after a breakthrough in the field of synthetic biology. Environmental advocates, however, will draw parallels between the advent of the “designer bacteria” (which is used to convert algae into fuel) and the creation of genetically modified organisms. The issue of “Frankenbugs” will gain traction in the media.
#14: Mind-control toys will grow from a small niche product in 2009 to the latest “must-have” toy by the 2010 holiday season. The technology will sell very well among kids under the age of 10 and seniors over the age of 65. Interest in brain-neural technology will also be driven by plummeting prices and increased product performance.
#15: Synthetically grown diamonds will make their way into the commercial marketplace but the diamond industry will have no ability to discern the products from “natural” diamonds. The diamond industry will attempt to downplay the significance of the event but will quietly ramp up efforts to regulate and control the creation of synthetic diamonds.
#16: A robotic pet that also serves as a companion, watch dog, vacuum cleaner and a personal healthcare monitor will be unveiled in Japan and marketed to the seniors. Voice recognition technology inside the robot will also be able to detect if a person"s speech is slurring and will connect to a healthcare professional immediately.
#17: The cost of sequencing an individual’s genome will drop to less than $1000. The breakthrough will lead to the creation of a rash of new social networking sites around different genetic dispositions in order to deal with the avalanche of genetic information. Genetic counseling will become one of the fastest growing professions in the coming decade.
#18: The growing sophistication of language translational software (available on such platforms as Google Wave) will cause leading corporations to revisit some job descriptions which currently require candidates to speak two languages. Citing the technology’s ability to facilitate conversations with native speakers, the city of Paris will become an even more popular tourist destination.
#19: A conservative state legislator will introduce legislation prohibiting healthy individuals (i.e. non-injured combat veterans) from using implanted brain-neural technology to control objects outside their body. The bill will die in committee but the author and other supporters vow to make it a campaign issue in 2010.
#20: Technology artisans will begin using inexpensive rapid prototype manufacturing equipment to develop new pieces of art and jewelry of previously unseen sophistication, complexity and beauty. More traditional artisans will ask that “non hand-made” products be banned from local art fairs.
The “Back to the Future” Prediction of 2010: A barefoot runner will win a major marathon and fuel a growing trend among recreational runners to run without shoes.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
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To Succeed in the Future: Think Like a Child, Now
Success Magazine recently published an article entitled ”Think Like a Child” in which I was quoted extensively. I encourage you to read it because, in addition to my insights (which I naturally think are insightful), it cites a number of other experts and practioners of “thinking like a child.” Here are a few highlights:
1. Children are naturally curious and open-minded;
2. Children aren’t conscious of what other people think;
3. Children don’t easily take “no” for an answer;
4. Children understand that recess can be the most important part of the day;
5. Children engage their imagination and aren’t afraid to try on new roles;
6. Children draw their inspiration from other children; and
7. Children don’t view setbacks as failures.
For some other child-like thoughts, I invite you to review these past writings:
The Power of Play
Stop Acting Your Age
Take a Mandatory Recess
The Power of Creative Play
Cultivate a Beginner’s Mind
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The Future Requires Engaging in Situational Unawareness Training
”Be very, very careful what you put into that head, because you will never, ever get it out.”—Thomas Cardinal Wolsey
Question: What two colors are the yield sign?
Did you say yellow and black? That answer would have been correct if Marcus Welby, M.D. was still the top-rated TV show; Richard Nixon occupied the White House or NASDAQ had yet to become a leading stock market index. The yield sign, though, has been red and white since 1971. Interestingly, a large number of people—including many born after 1971 - still erroneously believe the yield sign is yellow and black.
This phenomenon demonstrates that once a thing has been learned—even something as common as the color of a sign—it can be very difficult to unlearn.
Compare this situation with the actions of computer industry executives in the 1980s who had learned about computers in the era of mammoth mainframes and were accustomed to producing their own proprietary hardware and software and then having internal sales teams market and sell the expensive products they created.
With the advent of the personal computer the rules suddenly changed and companies began relying on microprocessors and packaged software and using third parties to distribute and sell the product. A handful of computer companies adjusted but many others such as Digital Equipment, Wang and Burroughs did not because either they didn’t unlearn the old rules or were late in adjusting to the new signs.
The same situation occurred more recently in the telecommunications industry. Prior to the creation of the iPhone, providers dominated the telecom industry and dictated to phone manufacturers the terms of agreement. The creation of Apple’s multi-touch, gesture interface and “apps"--laden device flipped the industry on its head. In a matter of months, millions of people switched providers and began using mobile devices to access the Internet (with a user--friendly browser), watch videos, read books and, together with the growing universe of software applications, do everything from locate their parked car at an airport and identifying obscure birds and songs to keeping their child mildly amused with an easy-to-download “fart app.”
In each case, the signs of change were not immediately obvious but they could have been picked up on if industry leaders had engaged in some situational “unawareness” training by stepping outside their industry’s existing paradigm and scanning the environment for subtle changes in technology, consumer behavior or the competitive landscape. For example, in the automotive industry, new advances in nano-materials and battery power could lead to radical new designs; the continued growth of social networking may demand the cars of the future to maintain constant connectivity and improve the driving experience; and advances in robotics and rapid prototyping could transform both the manufacturing process and the supply chain. In each case, automotive professionals will have to unlearn what a car looks like; how it is made; what it is expected to do; and who they will have to partner with in order to build the car of the future.
Homework Assignment: Using Starbucks as a case study, indentify three emerging trends in technology, consumer behavior or the beverage/food industry that may necessitate company officials to unlearn some aspects of its current business model.
Extra Credit: Identify at least two things which have contributed to Starbucks past success but that it should consider stop doing? (Hint: In 2009, the company dropped its name from a store in Seattle and replaced it with a name that more closely resembles a neighborhood corner coffee shop.)
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The Future of Health Care is All About Unlearning
My friends at MedGagdet have been doing a bang up job of covering the recent health care conference at TED. I invite you to review the proceedings from Day 2. The one thing that struck me is how—although unstated—the theme of unlearning underlies so many of the talks.
For example, the first speaker addressed how new virtual reality tools and high-speed digital/Internet connections may soon make “surgical collaboration” the new norm and lead to better surgical outcomes for patients—provided that is today’s surgeons can unlearn their “go-it-alone” style. The second speaker discussed why the current paradigm for diagnosing cancer (i.e. tissue-based diagnosis) may soon give way to more precise molecular diagnosis. Next, Aubrey de Grey talked about why aging should be viewed as a disease and not something that is inevitable. (I’ve written about this topic before and if de Grey is correct it will unleash a wave of unlearning.) Finally, Eric Dishman provided a glimpse of a new home-based health care delivery system.
My point is this: The technological advances which are driving these changes are real and they portend a better health care future for all of us. Unless leading professionals are willing to unlearn their current paradigms, however, many of these benefits will be unnecessarily delayed.
I have said it before and I will say it again—unlearning can be a matter of life or death, literally!
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The Future of Social Networking & Genetic Testing
Last month, I explained why social networking was the future of health care. One reason I feel strongly about this trend is because of the accelerating pace of technological change. More specifically, I don’t think doctors and other health care professionals can possible stay abreast of the latest developments. Nowhere is this more true than in the field of the genomic sciences.
To this end, it was recently reported that genetic tests puzzle most doctors. One possible solution is for patients with rare genetic profiles to begin communicating with knowledgable individuals who suffer from the same genetic disorder. Social networking offers the best medium for finding these individuals; communicating with them; and, ultimately, compiling a database of information which will be useful to both future patients and healthcare professionals.
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A Walk Into the Future
Last week I had the pleasure of giving a presentation on how emerging technologies will transform the aging services industry. Unfortunately, due to technical difficulties, I was unable to show the audience a series of videos which demonstrated—in vivid fashion—some of the more promising technologies.
The pace of change is accelerating so quickly in the field of robotics, however, that the video posted below wasn’t even available. (The technology was just unveiled by Honda this week.) I invite you to watch the 50-second video and then imagine how this technology may soon help thousands of seniors maintain their independence for a few additional years by easing the strain on their legs and backs. Or, alternatively, imagine how some nurses and other professional care-providers may be freed up for other work because they won’t be needed to assist elderly patients as much.
As I said at the end of my presentation I sincerely believe that the aging services industry is going to be at the forefront of incorporating many of tomorrow’s emerging technologies into everyday life. Why? Because, in many cases, senior will be the first to walk into this new future because these new emerging technologies will give them a greater degree of control over their lives.
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Hey YouTwitFace, The Future Will Require Unlearning Social Media
Earlier today I had the opportunity to give a short presentation on unlearning to the Olson advertising agency in Minneapolis. During the course of my talk I mentioned how fast technology is changing and I reminded my audience that although Facebook is only 5 years old and Twitter barely 3 years of age, it is important to remember that new social media tools are being created everyday—some of which will undoubtedly require us to unlearn some of our current communications habits. Afterwards, someone mentioned that Conan O’Brien addressed this very theme during last evening’s 2009 Emmy Awards. Enjoy this short (and hilarious) look at the Year 3000.
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Jump the Curve with an XBox
I have explained before how many small to medium-sized businesses could save big money using supercomputers, now Microsoft is making it possible for innovative researchers to save thousands of dollars by using an XBox for computer simulations instead of parallel computer processors. It’s a wonderful example of “walking the escalator” by using existing, off-the-shelf technology to gain a competitive advantage.
Speaking of off-the-shelf technology, I invite you to read this inspirational article explaining how two students at MIT have rigged existing technology to take a series of photos from outer space for less than $150.
This is further proof that the future will be cheap. Unless, of course, NASA continues to decide to “piss away” $154 million on ineffective urinal technology.
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Jump the Curve Strategy #15: Mandatory Recess
A mandatory recess might not sound like a sure-fire path to prosperity, but providing employees a period of unstructured free time to pursue activities of their choosing can be very beneficial. A handful of companies have already instituted such policies. Among some of the better known companies are Google, Genentech, and 3M.
All three companies have policies that allow some of their employees to spend anywhere between 15 percent and 20 percent of their time pursuing independent projects of their own choosing. In essence the companies are giving their employees permission to play.
3M has been a proponent of this practice for the longest period of time. According to company officials, the practice dates back to the 1920s when an employee reportedly disobeyed an order to abandon a project and ended up creating Scotch masking tape--one of the most successful products of all time.
One of 3M’s better known and more recent success stories is that of the Post--t Note, which was developed by an employee who, because of 3M’s policy, was free to pursue the project.
The benefits, though, go beyond these isolated successes. 3M has an incredible history of developing new products. For years the company has publicized the fact that 50 percent of its annual revenues can be traced back to products that were developed within the past five years.
One of the reasons it has been able to regularly achieve this goal is because employees have been encouraged to innovate and have then been given the freedom to pursue new ideas. The mandatory recess policy has not only reinforced the idea that continued innovation was critical to the company’s success, it has given management the confidence to stay focused on ideas that at first might have seemed either like dead ends or were too off the wall to pursue.
Another company that has embraced a discretionary time policy is Genentech. For the past few years the biotechnology company has consistently been ranked as one of the best places to work in America. There are many reasons for this, but one is because it allows its scientists discretionary time to pursue independent projects--in some cases up to 100 percent of their time. Genentech officials credit the creation of the anticancer drug Avastin--a product with over a $1 billion in annual sales--to its “discretionary time” policy.
As I explained before, the cost of the price of sequencing genes will continue to plummet due to the creation of ever faster computers and more sophisticated gene sequencing techniques and tools. As these things occur, not only will new drug treatments become available, but scientists and researchers are more likely to find innovative solutions to create drugs that are increasingly tailored to individual users.
Finally there is Google. In many ways, it has the boldest recess policy because it applies to all of the company’s employees (3M’s and Genentech’s programs are limited to its scientific and R&D staffs). Among the programs company officials attribute to its policy are the creation of Google News Service, Orkut (its social networking site), and Gmail.
In addition to generating new innovative products, mandatory recess offers one additional benefit that is hard to quantify, but is nonetheless extremely important: It is a powerful recruiting and retention tool. There is a fierce battle to attract and retain talented workers. One of the reasons Google, Genentech, and 3M are doing as well as they are is their policies send a clear message to prospective employees: The company trusts them to pursue interesting and important projects that they believe are in the company’s best long-term interests.
By giving workers this freedom, companies accrue one additional benefit. Employees now have a way of not simply meeting expectations--they have a way of surpassing them.
Exponential Insight
If you want employees to jump the curve, you have to give them the time and space to jump. As I will continue to demonstrate throughout this website, there will be no shortage of wild ideas and strange possibilities arising due to exponential advances in technology. Consider just a few of the possibilities that the emerging science of nanotechnology might enable materials scientists to play around with. For instance, plastic, glass, and steel are already being made stronger, lighter, more flexible and, in some cases, self-cleaning. Soon self-healing materials, flexible electronics, and solar fabrics will be on the market. Some of these advances will lead to innovative new products and applications. Thinking up new ideas will require people to follow their hunches and, sometimes, make counterintuitive jumps in logic. Running such off-the-wall ideas by management could, at best, be difficult. Better those employees just be given some mandatory recess time to pursue their ideas.
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Hospitals Offer a Glimpse of Future Computers
Often, when we think of technology, we like to imagine how it will transform different industries. It is less easy to imagine how certain industries will transform technology. Luckily, this fine articlefrom The New Scientist -- which is based on a new report from IT Analysts Gartner—takes a look at how voice recognition, eye tracking, virtual reality and brain-neural technology are being transformed by their early adoption in hospitals.
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The Future is Getting Cheaper
Last year I had post entitled The Future is Cheap in which I explained how technological advances are converging to drive down the price of a number of products and services. Today, yet another example has been brought to my attention. The price of In-Vitro Fertilization (IVF) is currently about $12,000 in the U.S. In Africa, however, a team of researchers now hopes to do it for $300.
Regardless of what one thinks about the wisdom or ethics of providing IVF to thousands of women in Africa, my point is that it won’t be long before the price in the U.S. and other places begins to drop rapidly.
If you want to jump the curve, one effective strategy is to seriously contemplate how your product or service might similarly be “disrupted” and provided for only “pennies” tomorrow.
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The Future of Robotic Surgery is Speeding Up
As readers know, I have been bullish on robotics practical applications in health care for some time (as this old post demonstrates.) Nevertheless, this 3-minute video shows how surgical robots are about to become a whole lot better—very soon. Enjoy!
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A Tale of Two Robots
Robots have always been a fun source of speculation about the future, and soon the speculation will get more interesting. This is because a number of innovative researchers are experimenting with different biological models for the creation of next-generation robots. For example, this article discusses how researchers are already mimicking the bones and muscles of humans to create more life-like robots, while this article reveals how other researchers have created a tiny swimming robot small enough to inspect the clogged drain pipe in your bathroom.
To better understand robots amazing potential, I invite you to watch the two very short videos posted below:
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A Future of Black Swans … or Unlearning the Future
”Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” Lao Tzu
This famous quote was uttered over 2500 years ago and may strike some people as odd that, as a professional futurist, I have chosen to highlight it.
My rationale is two-fold. First, as I have said many times before, the chief responsibility of a futurist is not to “predict” the future but rather outline a range of future possibilities. Second, and more important, I have highlighted the quote because it is true.
If you have not already read Nassim Taleb’s outstanding book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, do so as soon as possible. On Page 177 of the book, Taleb has an illustration of the scattering effect which artfully explains why predicting the future—especially for longer time frames—is virtually impossible.
Because I can’t reprint the figure here, I am left with Taleb’s analogy for understanding the scattering effect: the prediction of a billiard ball.
Assuming one has knowledge of the location of every ball and the speed and accuracy of the cue ball, it is relatively easy to predict the expected movement of the ball after the first shot. A person might even expect that second, third and fourth degree movements can be estimated with great accuracy due to the growing computational power of computers. The problem, however, grows increasingly complex with each subsequent movement. This is because after the ninth movement the gravitational pull of a person standing at the next pool table exerts enough of an effect to alter the trajectory of the ball. And after 56 movements even the smallest particle on the outer edge of the universe will effect the trajectory!
The bottom line is this: There are simply too many factors to consider when contemplating the future 20, 30, 50 or 100 years out. (Even a small effect today can have outsized implications 50 years hence). The situation, of course, becomes even more complicated because of Taleb’s main thesis which is that “Black Swans”—described as “high impact, low probability” events—tend to shape the future more than “expected” trends.
Therefore, whether a future “Black Swan” takes the shape of a pandemic, an asteroid, an E-bomb, a rogue terrorist attack, a North Korean or Iranian nuclear attack, an unexpected breakthrough in quantum computing or synthetic biology, or, more likely, some “unknown unknown;” the future will be difficult too predict because we don’t have—and won’t ever have—enough knowledge about the future.
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To Succeed in the Future: Unlearn Information
Unlearning information. It’s sounds paradoxical, right? After all, who in their right mind, would want less information? Well, you might if you want to succeed in the future.
Consider this quote which I came across in Jonah Lerner’s informative new book, “How We Decide”:
“A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.”
It is counter-intuitive but often having access to too much information can lead people to make worse decisions.
For example, in a classic study, one group of MIT graduate students were given access to a steady stream of financial information—CNBC, Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, etc—while a second group was only given information on the changing price of a stock.
Given this disparity which group do you think did a better job in selecting stocks? Most people would assume the first group. After all isn’t this why people read the Wall Street Journal and watch the analysts on CNBC? Well, you would be wrong. The second group—the group with less information—performed better.
Various versions of this experiment have been conducted with other groups, including college counselors who were asked to predict the future success of different students. One group was provided high school transcripts, SAT/ACT test scores, application essays and were even allowed personal interviews with the students. The second group was only given access to transcripts and SAT scores.
Again, the group with less information performed better. One big reason why this occurs is because when people are inundated with too much information they tend to think of all information as being equal. In the process, they lose track of what information is really important. More problematic is the finding that with more information people increasingly confident of their bad decisions!
The bottom line is not just as Jonah Lerner says that “Knowledge has diminishing returns,” but rather as Nassim Taleb wrote in the Black Swan that “Additional knowledge of the minutiae of daily business can be useless, even toxic.”
So there you go. De-toxify your system. Unlearn. Put down the newspapers and blogs; stop watching TV news programs; and quit following everyone on Twitter—you’ll make better decisions because of it.
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The Future Will Get Under Your Skin
I know I just said the other day that social networking is the future of health care. But another healthcare trend I am equally bullish on is the utilization of robots for the treatment of a growing assortment of ailments. The picture to the right shows you how incredibly small these devices are getting (1 millimeter) and they are only going to get smaller due to continuing advances in nanotechnology. As they do, according to this article, these devices will eventually be able to do everything from deliver drug loads to precise locations to clean out clogged arteries.
The future is about to under your skin and, while the idea might make some people’s skin crawl, it will also make them healthier.
For other robotic-related madness, check out these old posts:
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)
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Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift
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Social Networking: The Future of Health Care
Social networking is the future of health care for three very simple reasons: It is better for patients; providers; and payers.
Let’s first look at how a variety of social networking tools such as Facebook, Twitter, PatientsLikeMe and scores of iPhone applications are improving people’s health.
Ironically, the power of these tools does not rest so much in their technological capabilities—as impressive as they may be—as they do in their ability to harness and channel one of humankind’s oldest motivators: The desire to do what is right for one’s family and one’s community.
And, herein, lies the real power of social networking tools—they allow patients to share health care information with their family, friends, colleagues and, increasingly, even strangers. This act of sharing information then serves as a powerful mechanism for holding people accountable for performing the very actions which will lead to an improvement in health care outcomes.
Today, any number of procedures, including weighing oneself, taking medications, or checking one’s blood pressure or glucose level can easily be monitored online. This, in turn, allows interested parties to monitor one’s performance. A friendly “atta boy” from a daughter or grandson is more powerful than a chiding from a nurse or doctor.
Moreover, if there is an incentive attached to using a social networking tool to continuous monitor performance, it can serves as an additional motivator. (To gain an appreciation of the opportunity in this area, I invite you to watch this 5-minute video of Vena’s new social networking platform.)
Second, social networking tools, will help health care professionals reconnect with the reason most of them went into the profession in the first place—namely, to care for people. Again, it is somewhat ironic that instead of “depersonalizing” the patient-doctor relationship (as many people fear), social networking tools allow professionals more time to focus more on the human-side of the business—and less on the administrative tasks.
For example, by utilizing tools such as Myca, Medscape and Epocrates, doctors can quickly and accurately research and diagnose diseases. This will leave them more time to explain, educate and treat patients. In the case of Hello Health, patients can use its FaceBook-like application to pull-up a doctor’s schedule, select a time slot, indicate the type of appointment, ask questions in advance, and then schedule the appointment. This simple tool saves the patient from having to sit unnecessarily in the doctor’s office and it allows the provider to be better prepared when he/she arrives for the consultation with the patient.
The third reason the industry will inevitably move toward the rapid adoption of social networking tools is because it will save hospitals, insurance companies and the government billions of dollars. As one doctor recently said, “This is a $2.4 trillion industry run on handwritten notes ... we’re using a 3000-year-old tools to deliver health care in the richest country on this planet.”
Not for long.
To understand the opportunity for savings, it first helps to know that that the Mayo Clinic—now regarded as a leader in employing social networking tools—has spent a total of only $1,500 on the area. The majority of social networking tools are free. In Mayo’s case, its podcasts regularly educate up to 80,000 listeners at a time, and it’s YouTube channel is saving thousands of patients from unnecessary visits. Elsewhere, innovative health care providers in Spain are using the virtual reality site, Second Life, to consult with teenagers about sexually transmitted diseases, while others are using SimulConsult to help generalists make the better and earlier diagnoses of rare diseases and conditions. The net result is that patients are being treated sooner at a lower cost.
One hundred thousand (100,000) doctors are using Epocrates at an average of 6 times-a-day. This and other social networking tools will continue to explode in the years ahead because it is a proverbial win-win-win situation for the patients, providers and payers.
If you are interested in the future of health care from the perspective of everything from robotics, RFID technology and genomics to biotechnology and nanotechnology, check out the following past posts:
The Future of Health Care is as Near as Your iPhone
Healthcare is the “Verge” of Something Big
Here Comes Intelligent Medicine
The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating
Personalized Medicine’s Accelerating Future
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift
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To Prepare for the Future Take a Course on Unlearning
At the end of yesterday’s post on learning to unlearning (on my other website, Unlearning101.com), I posed the following question: How does one learn a new gestalt? To begin a person must start by unlearning some things. But what things do we unlearn? For our purposes, a good place to start might be to imagine what a course on unlearning what might look like.
One place to start is to imagine where the course would take place. Initially it will be--and already is--online. In 2007 the Massachusetts Institute of Technology announced that it was putting all of its courses online for free--for anyone in the world to access.
And let’s remember, the online, virtual classroom of the future is only going to get better. The Internet of the future will be streaming incredible amounts of data-rich information anywhere in the world, students will be capable of wirelessly downloading the latest information from flexible electronic books that display both the written word and video files, and new software programs will be capable of translating text from Mandarin Chinese, French, or Farsi into English--and vice versa. (See ”The Future of Reading.")
Another place a course on unlearning might gravitate toward is 3-D virtual-reality environments such as Linden Labs’ Second Life--a site where anyone can create a personal avatar of himself, meet other virtual avatars, and engage in online training sessions. As of this writing IBM, Dell, Intel, Circuit City, and Sears have all created a virtual presence in Second Life.
Interestingly, one of the initial motives of this move was not to create a stronger presence on the Internet (although that is certainly a factor), it was to achieve cost savings on employee education.
What is more interesting from the perspective of unlearning is how Second Life and other virtual-reality sites can be exploited to provide people with different perspectives. In a virtual environment, people can take on any appearance they want. While some people will undoubtedly use it for escapist fantasies, it could also be a powerful tool to help people unlearn certain habits. Imagine, for example, customer service representatives or managers being required to act as customers in one of their own online stores. The experience could provide a unique and refreshing perspective. (And, as I recently wrote, we could all benefit on occasion from unlearning everything from your perspective of color to your view of a stranger standing across the street.)
Longer term, the classroom of unlearning will likely become even more immersive. Perhaps Second Life will morph into Third Life. Among the technologies this environment are likely to incorporate will be enhanced visual, auditory, voice and speech recognition, and haptic technologies. Doctors and service technicians could use these tools to practice operations and repairs in silico before being allowed to ply their trade in the real world.
These tools will also be a boon for learning, unlearning, and relearning. People are often classified into one of three broad categories of learning: visual, auditory, or kinesthetic. Visual people learn by seeing or reading something, auditory learners by hearing it, and kinesthetic learners learn by doing it with their hands and muscles. (It is not quite this simple. Many people use a combination of different techniques for different things, but in general, most people tend to favor one of the three methods over the other two.)
A course on unlearning could exploit these natural tendencies and help people absorb new ways of doing things. For instance, instead of just reading about how a new drug works on a cancer patient, doctors could watch how it interacts with and disables a cancer cell. Other businesses could use such immersive technology to gain a deeper appreciation of what an elderly person experiences and create products that better address their needs. (See ”Unlearning Your Age.")
Many courses on unlearning won’t have a teacher. They will rather be open source in nature, and the content will not be provided by a single “expert” but rather it will be continually added to and improved upon by a vast collection of people. To this end, a relatively new wiki called Curriki has recently been created. Its goal is to support the development and free distribution of world-class educational material to anyone who needs it--anywhere in the world.
But far from being a shoddy collection of disjointed or inferior ideas, the result of these wikis will be vastly superior to anything a single expert could pull together. In the case of business wikis, they will contain advice and insights from employees, suppliers, and customers.
Among the adjustments this will require is that managers will need to unlearn their own reliance on experts. People will need to unlearn the idea that money and quality are synonymous. In the future, many of the best products will be the creation of open-source methods and wikis.
Another thing people will have to unlearn is that there isn’t always an answer. This is because so many fields are constantly evolving. An admission of one’s own ignorance may well be the first step most people will need to take upon entering the unlearning classroom of the future. Exponential executives may even have to go a step farther and accept that ignorance will be the largest element in their future educational needs.
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Prolonging the Future
”Aging is, unequivocally, the major cause of death in the industrialized world and a perfectly legitimate target of medical intervention.”
The above quote by Aubrey de Grey was taken from this interesting article (Two Mammals’ Longevity Boosted) in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal.
I written about both de Grey (here) and the topic of aging (below), and I am convinced that de Grey’s theories will continue to pick up supporters in the scientific and medical communities. The result being that many of us can expect to live a lot longer than we are currently planning. The implications of shifting the paradigm of aging from something that is inevitable (our current paradigm) to something that is treatable will be huge.
Related Posts
10 Reasons We Will Live to 1000
Unlearning Death
The Future of Aging
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When the “Unusual” Becomes Usual
It was recently reported that US life expectancy topped 78 years as a variety of diseases—including heart disease, diabetes and flu—decreased this past year.
More interestingly, life expectancy—which has been increasing about two or three months from year to year—jumped an impressive four months this year. This caused one demographer to note that the increase was “an unusually rapid improvement.”
It was “an usually rapid improvement,” but I’d like to argue that such rapid improvements will become “usual” for the foreseeable future. If one tracks the amazing rate of progress in biotechnology, genomics, stem cell research and nanotechnology; it is hard—barring a devastating calamity that kills thousands or millions of people—to envision how life expectancy will do anything but continue to increase at an accelerating rate.
At a minimum, given the existing pressure on such social programs as Social Security and Medicare, it seems only prudent that we should at least begin preparing for life expectancies in the neighborhood of 100 within the next few decades.
Related Posts
Healthcare is the “Verge” of Something Big
Here Comes Intelligent Medicine
The Future of Healthcare is Accelerating
Personalized Medicine’s Accelerating Future
The Future of Health Care: Preventing Disease
Health Care Providers Need a Second Life
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)The Robot Will See You Now
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 2
Hospitals Robotic Future: Part 1
Hospitals Get a Lift
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Intel Jumps the Curve
In the interest of open and honest disclosure, I am investor in Intel. One of the reasons I am a long-term investor is because I like how the company constantly and relentlessly engages the future—as this recent article entitled A glimpse at Intel’s futuristic gadgets suggests.
For anyone interested in where the future may be headed, I encourage you to read the article.
A few things caught my attention in the article. First, I was attracted by this quote from the company’s chief technology officer Justin Rattner, “We believe our mission is to take risks.” It is common for executives at many large companies to say such things but Intel puts its money where its mouth is. Consider, for example, the fact that the company is working on something called a “Dispute Finder.” It is essentially a smart software program that will call “bullshit” on an article or blog posting you may be reading if it contains erroneous (or even contradictory) information. Or, last year, the company announced it was working on a shape-shifting human-computer interface. The article also suggests it is aggressively investigating emerging opportunities in the field of robotics which, as I have written about numerous times, is a very promising field.
The second thing that caught my attention was mention of a poster displayed at the conference. It read, “Your kid’s kid’s kid won’t think what we’re doing is crazy at all.” Personally, I’d love to get my hands on a copy of that poster but, regardless, it is a perfect example of developing a future bias. Intel is not simply content to focus on incrementally improving its existing products, it is actively engaging the future in an attempt to “jump the curve.”
As an investor and a fan of the future, I wish them all the best.
Interested in reading about other corporations and organizations who are jumping the curve? Check out these past articles:
Google Jumps the Curve
The CIA Jumps the Curve
BMW Jumps the Curve
Mars Jumps the Curve
IBM Thinks Small
Lockheed Martin Jumps the Curve
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To Understand the Future It Helps to Have a Brain
Last year, I had a posted suggesting that you didn’t need to be a brain surgeon to see where the future was headed in terms of robotic surgery. I still stand by this statement, but as this news story explains it will still be essential to have a brain.
I have written before about the amazing amount of progress being made in the field of brain-machine interface technology -- or the ability to control external devices by thought alone. But, as the article explains, the technology is probably far more advanced than most people generally recognize. And while it is cool that monkeys can now mentally guide robotics to feed themselves, and ALS victims can continue to communicate with loved ones by using their mind to control a keyboard, I think it is vital that everyone in business today ”jump the curve” and try to understand where this technology might be headed.
(If you wish you can go “bananas” and watch this 55-second video clip of the monkey using its brain to control the robotic arm to feed itself bananas by clicking here.)
For example, what are the implications if people can control simple robotic devices by thought alone? One possibility is that elderly people who wish to remain in their homes (instead of moving into assisted-living facilities) might be able to maintain their independence longer by merely “thinking” a robot to clear away their dishes or clean the bathroon.
I have also written about the exponential advances in self-driving robotic cars. While, at first, people will undoubtedly be reluctant to turn over the control of the steering wheel to a robot, is it possible that their unease might be alleviated if they knew they could take over control of the car simply by “thinking” about it?
To many people such ideas sound impossible, but if you understand where brain-machine interface and robotic technologies are in terms of their progress today and further understand the exponential advances these technologies are experiencing, I think you’ll see that your brain will be able to do a lot more than it is currently doing. At a minimum, I’d encourage you to just “think” about it.
Related Posts
Pong and the Future of the President’s Brain
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The Next Innovation: AI, Nanotechnology, Robotics
The following 4-minute CNBC interview with Peter Diamandis, founder of the X Prize, lends further credence to the idea that the private sector and good old American ingenuity will lead to the next breakthrough innovation in artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology and genomics. (I have also posted a few related articles on the topic of innovation below the video.) For people who fear that innovation in America is either a “laggard” (as BusinessWeek recently suggested) or dead, I would only offer the immortal words of Mark Twain who, when he was asked to comment on his death, replied “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” The same is true of innovation in America. If anything the best is still yet to come.
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Want to Spur Innovation? Award a Prize.
Set Discontinuous Goals
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The Future of Your Organs is in Mint-Condition
I was born in 1964. I tell you this because the other day I happened to see a 1964 Mustang in mint-condition. Perhaps because I had just gone out for a long-run and was feeling my age afterwards, I found myself wishing my body could be maintained at the same level as the ‘64 Mustang.
Well, I invite you to read this fascinating article on how much progress is being made in the field of tissue engineering because such a vision of “body” maintenance may soon be possible. Today, researchers are making new bladders and within a few years it is expected that it will be possible to grow new kidneys, livers, arteries and eventually even new hearts.
I don’t dismiss the societal, moral or ethical considerations of this technology but, as a professional futurist, I envision a day in the near future when many of us will be able to exchange body parts as easily as auto mechanics are today able to replace engine parts on a ‘64 Mustang—and keep that baby humming well down the road and into the future.
Related Posts
The Future of Organ Sales
10 Reasons We May Live to 1000
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The Future of Association Meetings
In my business as a futurist and a public speaker, I have addressed hundreds of business association meetings. They are great networking opportunities, but it is not uncommon at these events to see a great many people stick to the safety of their pre-existing social circles. There is nothing inherently wrong with this, but most people would probably agree that in so doing these people are missing out on a great opportunity to form new connections as well as gain insight from other people whom they haven’t—and might never—meet.
Well, there is a new technology brewing on the horizon which could radically alter the dynamics of future meetings and enhance the productivity of these meetings. The technology I am speaking of is known as ’smart badges” and while they have been around in a limited form for the past few years, the technology is now getting better and they are poised to have a big impact on how future meetings are conducted—especially association meetings.
For instance, if you look at the picture above it is easy to see who is talking to who. Armed with this information, it might be easier for people to make common connections. For example, if you don’t know Bob but you see that your friend Sarah does, it might be easier for you to introduce yourself to Bob. Similarly, the technology can be used to bring together people who share common interests, hobbies or who might have even read the same book. It is even feasible to draw in people who would otherwise prefer to stay on the fringe—and this could be important because these people might have something really valuable to add to the conversation.
MIT’s Media Lab and such spin-off companies as nTag are producing a variety of innovative new technologies that could revolution the field of sociometrics. When one couples this progress with advances being made in the fields of mobile communication, RFID technology and software programs and algorithms, it boggles the mind to think how much more enjoyable, informative and entertaining future business and trade association meetings might be.
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