Industries: Manufacturing

Robots Advance

Last week, I explained how humans might soon be learning things from robots. Today, I’d like to explain why robots might become a more integral part of life faster than most people expect.

Yesterday, Technology Review published an interesting article entitled: ”Robots Learns to Use Tools.” What is really intriguing about the article, which describes a new robot called the UMass Mobile Manipulator or UMan for short, is that the robot is employing sophisticated algorithms to teach itself how to deal with unfamiliar objects.

One of the major barriers to date with robotics is that programmers have had to write complicated software code to help robots deal with almost every contingency that it might encounter. For example, for a household robot to be effective, it needs to recognize every item that might conceivably be in someone house—everything from a pair of scissors to a flower vase. This is no easy chore.

In the near future, however, robots need not necessarily know how to handle every object; they merely need to learn how to deal with that object in an
appropriate fashion. Using the scissors as example, UMan can study the device and then can tinker with the blades until it understands how they are connected and how the object operates. Presumably, the robot will then know that it would be inappropriate to “run with scissors.”

The implications of self-learning robots could be quite profound—especially if they can learn faster than humans. For instance, if they can recognize and learn how things operate, they might be finally able to practical household servants—ala Rosie the Robot in the Jetson’s. They could also become more practical instruments in the agricultural industry if they can determine between which fruit or vegetable is ready to be picked or whether it needs to stay on the vine a little longer. Similarly, robots will become more effective warriors in battlefield situations if they can rapidly adapt to the enemy’s changing behavior; and there is no reason why they can’t soon be used in a variety of other fields, including the construction industry and the health care industry.

Interested in some other future-related posts about robots? Check out these recent posts:

Learn from Robots
Meet Your Future, Shape-Shiting Robotic Butler
Hospitals Robotic Future
Will Robots Have Tails?
Is the Future of an ATV a Robot
The Robot Will See You Now

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Meet Your Future, Shape-Shifting Robotic Butler

One of the fun things about being a futurist is trying to understand how the convergence of various emerging technologies might lead to the creation of radically different products in the future.

For instance, consider these two articles which, on their face, appear to have little in common with one another. The first article announced that four robotics companies in Japan are uniting in an effort to create a mainstream market for robots. (For fans of accelerating technological change, please note how they hope to increase by ten-fold the number of domestic robots employed in Japan by 2013). The second article discusses how researchers at the The Franhofer Institute in Europe are making impressive progress in having computers anticipate human needs.

Now, one of the largest markets for robots in Japan is to have them serve the country’s growing—and rapidly aging—population of senior citizens. If the new alliance of Japanese robotic companies—which is known as the Federation for the Market Creation of Next-Generation Robots—gains access to some of the “human anticipation software” that the Franhofer Institute is developing, it is reasonable to believe that soon robots will not only be able to perform basic functions they will also be able to anticipate many of their owners needs.

If one further considers that iRobot is now developing a shape-shifting robot and that Hasbro Electronics is building a robot capable of serenading you, it is even possible that your robotic butler of the future will be able to sing you a catchy tune while cleaning those hard-to-reach places in your kitchen.

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Sound Off on New Metamaterials

I live in Southwest Minneapolis. It is a beautiful part of the city and is near an abundance of lakes and parks. As anyone who lives here knows, however, the one downside is the neighborhood’s proximity to the Twin Cities International airport. In the summer, if you are inside your home conversing on the phone with a friend, it is not uncommon to have to halt your conversation every few minutes while a 727 or 747 airplanes lumbers overhead.

Alas, there may be hope on the way for me and my neighbors—as well as thousands of other people who suffer from noise pollution. According to this article in today’s Technology Review, researchers at MIT have developed a new metamaterial that can distribute sound around various materials. Among other things, this means that the sound from those planes could some day soon simply be transferred around my house.

It is an exciting technology and it is one that architects, builders and designers should keep in mind if they want to “jump the curve” and provide consumers with products that improve the quality of their life.

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Safety Equipment: Vast Room for Improvement

The threat of a major terrorist attack is generally downplayed in most people’s minds. This is short-sighted. Last year it was suggested that the probablity of a major terrorist attack—in the form of a chemical, biological or nuclear attack—occuring within the next 10 years was 50 percent. Fifty percent!

As a result of this inattention, this country is investing few resources in developing next-generation detection equipment that could help prevent such attacks. And we are investing even less in developing and manufacturing equipment and technology that could assist society in the event of an attack.

Three specific reports from this past week highlight just how much more we could be doing. On Friday, it was reported that researchers at MIT are developing bacterial chemical sensors—sensors that could theoretically change color in the presense of dangerous materials. Given the vulnerability of both our ports and our food supply infrastructure, a modest investment in advancing this technology (and other related technologies) seems warranted.

This past week also witnessed reports on the development of “nano-paper”—a super-paper that is stronger than cast iron—and a breakthrough in carbon-nanotube technology which could provide the foundation for a hyper-efficient filter. Both technologies have a host of applications in emergency management situations, although they are not simply limited to assisting after a major terrorist attack.

Consider the situation in Iowa where flooding is threatening millions of acres and putting thousands of people at risk. The development of barriers constructed from nano-papers could make levies stronger and longer-lasting; and the creation of carbon-nanotube filters could ease concerns over contaminated drinking water.

Before such technologies can be deployed in such a systemic way, however, it is first essential that these promising technologies don’t languish in the laboratory. It would be a shame to realize—after a terrorist attack—that protective detection and safety equipment did exist but we did little to rush it to market.

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BMW Jumps the Curve

The German automaker BMW, in introducing its new “Light Visionary Model” prototype—which it dubs GINA (Geometry and Functions “N” Adaptions")—writes this: ”The key to affecting the development of tomorrow’s mobility lies in our readiness to challenge what is established and in the ability to present new options.” In short, BMW is jumping the curve and embracing the future.

Watch the short video below and notice how doors and hoods no longer open (they fold and zip open) and how the lights do open (much like human eyes), I think you’ll agree that the benefits of jumping the curve could give BMW a very distinct competitive advantage as it boldly moves into the future.

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Get Prepared to Unlearn at Warp Speed

IBM recently announced that it has developed a new supercomputer capable of performing 1,000 trillion calculations per second. It is a little hard to wrap your brain around such mind-boggling numbers, but last year I wrote an article discussing an IBM supercomputer that was capable of performing 70 trillion calculations per second. In the piece, I noted that if you had to perform a similar number of calculations (and assuming you could work 365/7/24) it would take you roughly 60 million years to perform what that supercomputer could do in one second.

Well, with this latest advance, it would now take you—theoretically speaking—about 800 million years. Of course, such a comparison is slightly ridiculous. What is not ridiculous, however, is what these supercomputers are doing and learning. With their immense electronic brains they are now designing new materials and products; creating new drugs; and helping us better understand everything from the human body and brain to how mankind is impacting the environment.

One implication of these new findings is that all of us will need to unlearn at a faster rate.

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I Just Want to Bang on My Table All Day

Although Jump the Curve deals primarily with new and emerging technologies sometimes I just like to highlight ideas which represent certain aspects of the book. In this case, I’d invite you to check out this very short video of a man who is building tables which double as instruments. It is a great example of what I call the “power of play”—or thinking like a child.

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Reach for a New Future

Building off my two last posts --- AI: Getting Better All the Time & Why Mind Over Matter Matters -- I’d ecourage you to check out this amazing video. If a person can already contol a robotic prosthetic arm this well today, just image what we’ll be able to do tomorrow.

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Get the Skinny on the Future

This morning as my daughter was leaving for school she asked if she could watch the “fat, chunky” movie this weekend. I gave her a perplexed look and replied that I’d never heard of it. I probed a little further and although it took me a few moments to determine what she was talking about, I eventually understood that she wanted to know if she could watch a VHS-format movie.

This incident, along with another this past weekened where she gazed unknowingly at a record player that was for sale at a garage sale, has gotten me to thinking about what else might seem “fat and chunky” to her in the future.

Already televisions, phones and iPods are impressively thin and are likely to grow more so in the future. Alas, it won’t stop there.

A few months back, I wrote about solar energy’s long-term potential and one reason I’m so optimistic about its potential is that I believe thin-film photovoltaics are only going to grow more efficient and cost-effective over time. Among other things this implies that today’s bulky silicon solar cells are likely to fade away.

The field of nanotechnology is also leading to thinner and more effective materials. Therefore, walls made out of aerogels; car panels constructed of new nanocomposites; and automobile batteries (which utilize various nanomaterials) should also become thinner. As will lights which will take advantage of advances in organic light emitting diodes.

Next, as flexible electronics grow more mature and as more people grow comfortable reading information from such flexible displays, there is good reason to believe that books and newspapers will also become thinner. (In fact, they will become so “thin” that their digital content will simply be displayed in atom-sized pixels on the electronic substrate.)

Finally, as I highlighted last week in this piece, obesity - due to advances in genomics—could soon be addressed. In other words, it is entirely possible that we humans (especially Americans) will become less, well, “fat and chunky.”

Of course, just as “boom boxes” staged a surprising counter-trend in the late 1980’s and gigantic wearable clocks became all the rage, I am open to the idea that some products might become larger in the future but, in general, I think “thin” will definitely be “in” in the future.

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Jack Uldrich Speaks on the Future

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Bone Up on Your Materials Sciences

There is an informative article in Technology Review on the topic of advance materials. To many, the subject undoubtedly sounds boring but I’d like to suggest otherwise and express the opionion that unless you keep with advances in the field you could soon find yourself out of business.

Without going into great detail, the gist of the article is that due to near exponential advances in scientists’ ability to program the self-assembly of nanoparticles, researchers are now poised to assemble new materials with novel optical, electronic and magnetic properties. More importantly, as savvy businesspeople begin to figure out how to exploit these properties they could soon be developing some very cool—as well as very efficient and effective—new products.

For example, I have written before about solar power’s potential. Due to advances in self-assembly, however, it is quite possible that photovoltaics could soon capture a broader range of the solar spectrum. And this, in turn, could mean that new solar cells will be efficient enough to work even in cloudy environments.

Another example is occurring in the field of fuel cell technology. This recent article discussing the possibility of cheap hydrogen is a perfect case-in-point. Researchers have now shown that by tweaking the atomic structure of titania they can more efficiently produce hydrogen. If hydrogen becomes easier and cheaper to produce this means that not only might fuel cell vehicles arrive sooner than expected, it is also possible that hydrogen can be used as a means to store solar energy (which would be generated during the day) and then used (in the form of hydrogen) in the evening.

Scores of other opportunities also await. I have written before about how new materials are already effecting both the semiconductor industry and the oil and gas industry; and new materials will also transform the building and manufacturing industries.

The bottom-line is this: If your business has anything to do with materials—and this is most businesses—it would behoove you to begin paying attention to the advances in the world of material science and nanotechnology.

Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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