Strategies for innovating into the future:
Global futurist and author Jack Uldrich offers essential strategic information on nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, RFID and many other future technologies to help you prosper as exponential trends converge at this unique moment in history.
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Helping Businesses Unlearn
As a leader you must nurture an organization that can rapidly adapt. Unlearning can help.
Unlearning can also help you innovate. In fact, unlearning can even assure you and your organization survive.
After years of work, I am pleased to report that I have now developed both a half and a full-day seminar designed to help organizations unlearn—and thus adapt, innovate and survive.
Below is a short 9-minute video overview of the program. If you are interested in how “unlearning” can help your organization, please contact me at jack@unlearning101.com or 612.267.1212.
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To Understand the Future See Things From a New Perspective
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Jaywalking into the Future
Did you know that more pedestrians die in crosswalks than when jaywalking. The reason is because people have a false sense of security in crosswalks and are less likely to look both ways.
This is a wonderful metaphor for how you should think about the future. I know most people believe there is safety in doing what you did yesterday and the day before yesterday. Alas, the paradox of the future is that playing it safe is, in fact, the riskiest thing to do.
The future is racing ahead at breakneck speed and a number of trends—in information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and social networking—are about to smash into our “crosswalks.” If you want to survive the future my advice is to “unlearn” safety and jaywalk a new path into the future. It may feel riskier but it isn’t.
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Tic-Tac-Toe: The Future is Unknowable
Take a look at the familiar tic-tac-toe grid to the right. In how many different ways could you make the journey? It is not common for people to guess 27, 81 or even 243. The answer, however, is 362,800. This is because 9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1=362,800. (The actual number of winning or draw games is 255,168. For a more complete explanation click here.) My point is that either number is significantly larger than most people expect.
The same is true when thinking of the future. It is comforting to believe we can predict future with great certainty but as a professionalist futurist--and you may find this ironic, counter-intuitive, paradoxical or even disturbing--I make no claim to be able to predict the future.
Here’s why.
Consider almost any issue. What factors are involved? In my work as a professional futurist and forecaster, I regularly speak about 1) technology; 2) competitors; 3) customers; 4) employees; 5) money; 6) demographic characteristics; 7) politics; 8) regulatory issues; and 9) human behavior.
In many ways these characteristics are analogous to the X’s and O’s in a tic-tac-toe game and they can play out in hundreds or thousands of ways. In fact, the real number is so astronomical as to be incalcuable because there isn’t just one technology, one competitor or one employee to be concerned with in each circumstance. There are many and each one adds exponentially to the number of new possible outcomes.
All of this is not to say that forecasting isn’t valuable and worthwhile. It is. (I wouldn’t be a professional futurist if I didn’t believe this.) Rather, I merely want you to unlearn the idea that the future can be predicted with great clarity. It can’t.
Counter-intuitively, though, you can gain a better feel for the range of future possibilities but only if you first think and long about all of the variables which can affect your future.
P.S. But, as the post below suggests, don’t forget about Black Swans.
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The World is Changing
The following quote is from Hugh MacLeod’s new book Ignore Everybody and 39 Other Keys to Creativity. This is Rule 17: The World is Changing:
“Some people are hip to it, others are not. If you want to be able to afford groceries in five years, I’d recomend listening closely to the former and avoiding the latter. Just my two cents.”
Great advice. It’s exactly what I meant when I wrote The World is Changing: Unlearn. It is also an excellent reason for hiring a futurist.
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The Practical vs The Impractical Futurist
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The Practical Futurist Vs The Impractical Futurist
A fellow professional futurist bills himself as the practical futurist. The label has always rubbed me the wrong way and it’s not because I don’t also believe that some futurists can get a little ahead of themselves. Rather, it is because I think the phrase “practical futurist” is an oxymoron. By labeling himself as “practical” what he is really doing is confining himself to only “practical” ideas and if history teaches us anything it is that the future is rarely practical.
In 2006, would a practical futurist have predicted that the social networking site, Facebook, would be larger than all but three countries in this world or that Apple would have the most successful cellphone in the world and that it would possess over 150,000 different “apps” and these apps could do everything from tell you what song you are listening to ... to mimicking the sound of a fart?
In 2001, is it likely that a practical futurist would have predicted that people working for free and with no overhead would ultimately produce an encyclopedia larger and more accurate than anything Encyclopedia Britannica could produce? Or that this “people’s encyclopedia” would thump Microsoft’s plans to hire a hundred of the brightest PhD’s to construct Encarta—an online encyclopedia? Of course not, but today everyone uses Wikipedia and it is available in no fewer than 250 different languages.
In 1991, when a cellphone was the size of a large brick and cost $5000, would a practical futurist have predicted that in less than two decades 2 billion cellphones would be in existence on the planet and that fishermen in Africa would be using the devices to do everything from checking the weather to exchanging cash?
In 1981, when video games were only as sophisticated as Pac-Man, would a practical futurist have predicted that someday video games would be a larger industry than all of Hollywood? Would a practical futurist have predicted that bottled water would be a $17 billion a year industry?
In 1971, would a practical futurist have predicted that Moore’s Law would continue unabated for another 40 years and ultimately make computer chips so inexpensive that McDonald’s would give these computers away (in the form of cheap disposable toys) with a $3 Kid’s Meal?
In 1961, when computer memory devices were the size of a large desk, stored 5 megabytes, and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, would a practical futurist have predicted that some day tiny memory devices with a million times more storage capacity would be given away for free as trinkets at a national conference for gays, lesbians, trans-gender and trans-sexuals? (Perhaps they may have predicted the former but I bet the latter was nowhere near their “practical” radar screen).
In 1951, would a practical futurist have had the foresight to see that in the future pet food would be a $40 billion-a-year industry and that people would hire pet psychologists or that an airline would be created to cater specifically to those pet owners who wished to fly their pets in first class?
In 1941, would a practical futurist have predicted that the United States two greatest threats—Germany and Japan—would rank among our staunchest allies in less than two decades? Or, on the heels of the Great Depression, that some day obesity—and not hunger—would be among our greatest health threats.
In 1931, when no less of an authority than Albert Einstein was saying that there “wasn’t the slighest indication that nuclear power can be harvested,” would a practical futurist have predicted that an atomic bomb would be created less than 15 years later?
In 1921, when planes still hadn’t crossed the Atlantic Ocean, would a practical futurist have predicted that Atlanta would someday have the world’s largest airport and that 90 million people from all across the globe would fly through the once sleepy southern city?
And, in 1911, would a practical futurist have had the audacity to predict that just a decade later that an innovative entrepreneur would have created a way to transmits the human voice across the Atlantic Ocean? Not likely since in 1916 Lee De Forest was prosecuted by government officials for making such a preposterous claim. (Luckily he wasn’t found guilty and founded RCA in 1919.)
My point is simple. The future is accelerating and advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology, information technology, robotics, genomics, stem cell research, regenerative medicine, brain-scanning technology, data storage, Internet bandwidth, photonics, energy technology, algorithms, voice recognition technology, social networks and synthetic biology—among others—are going to rock our world in ways that are difficult to imagine today.
If you want to be told that tomorrow is practical—because it might make you feel comfortable or because you don’t have the guts to hear things that may sound impractical—then, by all means, hire a practical futurist. I offer only this caveat: What I might say as an “impractical futurist” may not come to fruition but I can guarantee you this: If the future sounds “practical” it definitely isn’t going to come true.
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Futurist Jack Uldrich’s 10 Predictions for the Coming Decade
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Want to Understand the Future? Study History!
In his famous speech at Rice University where he declared that it was America’s intention to put a man on the moon by the end of the decade, President Kennedy said “the greater our knowledge increases, the greater our ignorance unfolds,” adding that “the vast stretches of the unknown and the unanswered and the unfinished still far outstrip our collective comprehension.”
Kennedy went on to offer a historical perspective for the magnitude of change society had experienced over the short course of human history. He asked his audience to condense the 50,000 years of man’s recorded history into the span of fifty years. Under this scenario, Kennedy noted that not much happened for the first forty years. Ten years ago, man emerged from his cave, and only five years ago did he learned to write. Christianity appeared two years ago, the printing press this year, and just two months ago the steam engine appeared. Last month electric lights, telephones, automobiles, and airplanes became available, and only last week did we develop penicillin, television, and nuclear weapons. To reach “the stars before midnight tonight,” Kennedy then poignantly added that Americans would have to “dispel old [and] new ignorance.”
Since achieving Kennedy’s goal in 1969, progress has continued exponentially. In the last proverbial “day” computers, biotechnology, the Internet, and the sequencing of the human genome have all appeared on the scene.
What Kennedy’s analogy reminds us it that will need to continue to ‘dispel old ignorance”—or continuously unlearn if you will—only on a faster scale because the future is about to change in the “blink of an eye.”.
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The Future is on the Fringe
Take a look at the image to the right. It is a visual display of Everett Roger’s famous model of diffusion. I, however, want you to look at it differently. Consider it, instead, “an unlearning curve.” Conventional wisdom tells us that it is safe in the middle. Advertising and marketers frequently target their message toward the “early majority” and the “late majority” in the middle. What they are really doing is focusing on the “average” person. I say screw that! The future is on the fringe!
The true innovators go after the fringes. If you have a cool new product target it toward the “innovators” or the “early adopters.” Those are the people who really care about your product. If they love it, they will tell their friends and anybody who will listen. They may even improve it for you.
Alternatively, if you want to innovate try looking at the laggards. That’s exactly what Nintendo did when they began considering video games for the elderly. The result was the Wii remote and guess what? Not only did seniors love the easy-to-use hand-held stick so did middle-age parents and even younger kids.
If you want to embrace the future, screw the majority. Focus on the fringes!
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A Beautiful Call to the Future
At the beginning of the year, I outlined 20 predictions for 2010. (You can read the full list here).
Number five on the list read: #5: A socially-networked song in which none of the band members knew one another prior to the song’s release will become a Billboard Top Ten hit. The band will attempt to conduct a conventional tour but will soon breakup citing “artistic differences.” The real cause: they find they just don’t like one another.
I invite you to watch the video below. It isn’t quite want I had in mind when I made the prediction and I don’t know if it’ll become a top ten hit but Eric Whitacre’s virtual choir singing “Lux Aurumque” is far more beautiful and powerful than anything I could have imagined. Enjoy!
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The Future is on the Back Pages
I am re-reading Dan Pink’s excellent book, A Whole New Mind, and was just reminded that the creation of written language (invented by the Greeks around 5500 BC) helped reinforce the dominance of the brain’s left hemisphere--which is more analytical and sequential in nature.
There is nothing inherently wrong with this, but I believe it does speak to our need to break out of our regular habits (and patterns of learning about the world) from time to time. For example, a while back I encouraged my viewers to read the newspaper backwards occasionally because it was my experience that, often, the most important stories (from a long-term perspective) were those buried deep on the back pages of the paper.
Of course, I don’t believe newspapers or magazines are the only or best source of information these days but I can’t encourage you enough to break away from your regular sources and methods of gathering news. This is especially true if you wish to better understand the future. I invite you to watch this interesting TED talk by Kirk Citron of the Long Now Foundation discussing the idea of what stories from today will really be important in 100 years. Not surprising, Citron reaches the same conclusion I did and that is that the most important stories are not those which are being covered on the front pages; leading the nightly newscasts; or generating the most Internet traffic.
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To Create the Future Cultivate a Beginner’s Mind
Thomas Huxley once encouraged people to: ”Sit down before fact as a little child, be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abyss nature leads, or you shall learn nothing.” I really like this quote because, as regular readers of this blog know, I think we can all benefit a great deal from ”thinking like a child.”
A correlary to this is the idea that “inexperience” is not always a negative characteristic. This is especially true if people’s experience precludes them from understanding how the accelerating pace of technological change might change their future in ways which are completely unexpected or maybe even foreign to them. To this end, I highly recommend this article, entitled ”Judgment Trumps Experience,” which appeared a while back in the Wall Street Journal. One sentence in particular stands out for me. It reads: ”And often, especially in today’s dizzying world, we need to understand what Zen Buddists call the ‘beginner’s mind,’ which recognizes the value of fresh insight unfettered by experience.”
It’s a wonderful quote and in today’s “dizzying world” it is more appropriate than ever. Now, if you want to take this message to heart and become what I call an exponential executive, the question you must ask yourself is this: What are you doing to cultivate your own “beginner’s mind”?
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A Funny Look at the Future of Newspapers
The fine folks at The Onion have done it again. If you’re looking for a little relief from the fast-paced nature of today’s technological change, I invite you to watch this hilarious two-minute video clip. Enjoy!
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The Value of a Futurist
It is a fact that 100% of the information we have—in terms of the data we collect or the patterns we spot—comes from the past. But is also true that 100% of the value of any decision we make will come the future. It therefore makes sense to deeply consider the future before making any decision.
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The Future of Science Accelerates
”Researchers don’t publish negative results, they only publish positive results. But the negative results can lead to positive results.”
The following quote might not appear revolutionary but I’d argue that is, in fact, quite extraordinary. According to this VentureBeat article researchers have now created a new website, www.researchgate.net, which has been dubbed a “FaceBook for Scientists.” As a professional futurist, I’m excited because the advance will facilitate and accelerate the discovery of new scientific advances by helping scientists understand and see what isn’t there.
As a self-described unlearning fanatic, I’m even more excited by the power of the tool because I think it is the type of thing that will allow new and younger scientists to challenge conventional wisdom; help people see new patterns; and maybe even break down old scientific paradigms by “getting more eyes” and new brains on an old topic.
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Why Hire a Futurist?
Why hire a futurist? In two words, creativity and innovation. The purpose of a futurist is not simply to help companies, corporations and organizations understand where the future is headed (although this is part of the job), the more important role of a futurist to help create the future. The emphasis is on the word create.
There are a number of ways to do but it all begins with using our understanding of future trends to spark creativity in order to drive innovation. Let me provide three quick examples. First, your organization can embrace intellectual diversity as a means to spot new opportunities—or dangerous threats—before others.
Another simple trick is to view the future from a different perspective. (This can also be viewed as unlearning your old perspective). If you and your organization do this not only can problems be turned into opportunities but powerful new connections between seemingly unrelated ideas can be created. The resulting new ideas can then drive new innovations.
Finally, I personally engage in the power of story-telling and use metaphors (such as this one on nanotechnology) to help open vistas from which creativity and innovative can spring.
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Diversity: The Spice of Life
There is very little difference between one man and another; but what little there is, is very important. This distinction seems to me to go to the root of the matter. --William James, The Will to Believe
It has been said that diversity is the spice of life. But diversity is more than just a spice, it is actually a necessary and vital ingredient of life. Consider a very close and intimate example: you.
Have you ever wondered how it is that you got to where you are? I am not speaking here of the mystery of life (although in keeping with the theme of this website I feel compelled to mention that the cell division that occurs almost from the moment you are conceived is but another example of exponential growth); rather, I am referring to your place in society.
That we even have a society to be members of is an enthralling proposition, and while I am sure a few people have pondered such a question in a moment of quiet reflection or perhaps in some long forgotten freshmen philosophy course, it is safe to say that most people have chosen not to make answering this question the central theme of their lives. Fewer still have decided to write a book about it.
To our good fortune, Jared Diamond did explore this very question in his Pulitzer Prize--winning book Guns, Germs, and Steel. The work seeks to answer the question of why different societies developed in different ways and progressed at different rates. Or as Diamond so eloquently phrases the question: Why is it that Africa, where protohumans evolved for the longest period of time, didn’t come to develop the tools that would have permitted it to conquer Europe rather than vice versa?
As the book’s title implies, the answer is not altogether simple. One of the principal and necessary ingredients behind Western civilizations’ explosive growth from a small band of nomadic hunter and gatherers 10,000 years ago to today’s hyperconnected, supersized international economy where billions of dollars pulsate electronically in the blink of an eye and hundreds of ships three times the size of a football field roam the high seas at any given moment is diversity.
More specifically, a diversity of weather, terrain, climate, plants, and animals lie at the heart of modern society’s exponential advancement. As Diamond explains, it is not just a quirk of fate that civilization began in the Fertile Crescent. A confluence of diversity conspired to spark modern civilization. To begin, the region was blessed with a wealth of altitudes and topographies. This gave rise to rivers, deserts, and flood plains, which, when combined with differing weather patterns in the region, produced a bewildering array of plants. In fact, ten millennia ago thirty-two of the world’s fifty-six different wild grasses could be found in the Fertile Crescent.
These plants then cross-pollinated with one another and gave rise to an even wider assortment of plants. This potpourri of plants attracted an amazing collection of animals, including four species of big mammals--the goat, sheep, pig, and cow--that could be easily domesticated.
Ingenious hunter-gatherers who had already begun cultivating some of the perennial plants to supplement their hunting diet discerned a variety of uses for these animals. Not only did they use them for food and clothing, they also recognized that these beasts of burden could be put to work to provide traction and transportation for more difficult jobs, and they could be used to further exploit the land by providing fertilizer.
And it was this use of both plants and animals that gave humans their first big break because the abundance of calories and proteins that these crops and animals provided allowed even more hunter-gatherers to put down their weapons and forego their nomadic ways and instead, in confidence, pick up a hoe and begin farming.
Over time, increasing numbers of hunter-gatherers did the same, and soon there were enough people to require some organization. I am skipping a few steps here, but among the first things that needed to be done was that leaders had to emerge to delegate the tasks. Next bureaucrats were appointed to oversee operations, and soon after armies were created to protect the society’s existing land as well as advance its search for more.
This combination of leaders, bureaucrats, soldiers, and farmers allowed for the creation of an even greater diversity of professions--civil engineers, builders, educators, scientists, financiers, medical specialists, and philosophers--to flourish over time. And these specialists begat more advances as each group contributed to the growing strength of the collective. The moral of the story is that while diversity does beget more diversity, the real advances--and the best way to jump the curve--is to figure out how to exploit that diversity.
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The Future is Gold
Just in time for Valentine’s Day, the World Gold Council, in partnership with the fine folks at Cientifica, have released a new report entitled ”Gold for Gold: Gold and nanotechnology in the age of innovation” suggesting that gold may soon replace diamonds as “a girl’s best friend.”
OK. That’s not really what the report said but here are a few of the highlights about how gold nanoparticles may impact your future:
1. Gold’s inherent bio-compatibility properties make it an ideal candidate for targeting tumors;
2. Gold nanoparticles are being developed to enter inside other diseased cells (The nanoparticles are then heated with infrared light and this “cooks” the cell from the inside out);
3. Soon, gold nanoparticles may create needleless vaccines;
4. Gold-based nanoarrays might also help detect everything from whether a woman is pregnant to dangerous food borne pathogens;
5. Gold-based nanocatalysts are being created to prevent the release of mercury into the atmosphere as well as neutralize other deadly compounds such as carbon monoxide; and
6. Such nanocatalysts might also help purify water by removing arsenic or other common pollutants.
The report also covers other opportunities in fuel cells, coatings, dyes and pigment, solar cells, conductive inks, electronics and high density data storage. All told, its a solid report and offers further evidence that nanotechnology is moving into the commercial mainstream.
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There’s a Flip-side to Everything
As long time readers of this blog know, I am fond of the map to the right and have used it on previous occasions to emphasize the idea that in order to unlearn we must often view the world from a different perspective.
I was pleased to see that Derek Sivers incorporated it into the end of his two-minute TED talk entitled “There’s a Flip-side to Everything.” (The entire video is posted below).
I especially liked Siver’s example of how in certain Chinese communities citizens pay doctors for each month they stay healthy!
And, although Sivers didn’t this example, as a professional futurist who frequently uses history to illuminate the future, I have always liked the story of the Peruvian Indian tribe whose members gesture with their hands in a forward motion when describing the past. (From their perspective, because you can “see” the past, the past is in front of them. The future, on the other hand, can’t be seen so it is behind them.
It may sound weird but, as Sivers say in his talk, “The opposite may also be true.”
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The Future of Relationships
My favorite commercial during yesterday’s Super Bowl was Google’s (which I have posted below). The reason I liked it is because it is a powerful reminder that technology doesn’t just light our future, it can also fundamentally change how—and with whom—we interact in personal relationships.
For a little historical perspective, consider this: Before the invention of the automobile your future spouse/partner was likely to come from within a 5-mile radius of where you lived; after the automobile was popularized the radius increased to roughly 100 miles. The invention of the airplane further increased the average distance; and the Internet, as Google’s commercial demonstrates, is, yet again, extending the distance.
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Jack Uldrich’s Predictions for the Coming Decade: The Turbulent Teen’s
“Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” It was the ancient Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu who uttered these wise words. As a professional futurist, I always keep this quote in the back of my mind and remind my audiences that I am not in the business of making predictions. Instead, I offer my clients a forecast which includes a broad range of future possibilities.
Nevertheless, I understand the appeal of predictions and do feel they can play a limited role in helping businesses, corporations, NGOs, and governments more realistically think about the future.
Therefore, much as I did last month with my 20 Predictions for 2010, I would now like to offer my humble predictions for how the following decade may unfold—all the time remembering that the future will most likely be shaped by those ”Black Swans” which none of us see coming.
Here then are some of my predictions to get your “future juices” flowing:
2010: The term “augmented reality” will be the year’s big buzzword. Augmented reality apps such as Yelp Monocle and Wikitude World Browser will continue to grow, but the year’s biggest hit will be the yet-to-be-released TAT Augmented ID—which uses face-recognition software to display information about the person being viewed. By the end of the decade, health care professionals will be able to display a patient’s entire medical history on a flexible electronic device which they can fold up and carry with them at all times.
2011: “Vooks”—a combination between an electronic book and a video—will become increasingly popular. By the end of the decade, a number of schools will be using the devices to provide students a deeper, more meaningful learning experience.
2012: College graduates will begin identify a variety of new career possibilities. Some of the more popular future jobs include genetic data counselors; privacy data consultants; 3-D gaming software enginners; rapid prototype manufacturers and climate geoengineers. By the middle of the decade, frustrated by society’s inability and unwillingness to seriously change their behavior in the face of climate change, Al Gore will reverse his position and become an advocate of limited climate geoengineering—the idea of using technology on a grand scale to modify the natural environment.
2013: A truce in the “War on Cancer” will be called as advances in gene therapy and nanomedicine begin addressing cancer at the molecular level. Cancer will still exist but the new paradigm will be premised on treating cancer on an ongoing basis. (In this way, it will be similar to how we now treat diabetes.) By the end of the decade, chemotherapy will be viewed as a crude and blunt instrument.
2014: A combination of radical advances in solar and desalination technology will afford an increasing number of farmers—especially those near coastal areas—access to cheap and reliable amounts of fresh water. By the end of the decade, however, climate scientists will become increasingly concerned that the amount of water being diverted from the world’s ocean is having a harmful effect on a number of ocean creatures. On a different front, advances in the field of synthetic biology will now be regularly supplying airlines with jet fuel produced from biomass.
2015: Due to a plethora of medical advances in gene therapy, biotechnology, nanomedicine, stem cell research and regenerative medicine, life expectancy will continue to grow faster than most demographers has estimated. Congress is finally forced to accept this reality and indexes Social Security and Medicaid benefits to the annual upward adjustments in life expectancy. AARP members complain loudly and use the latest social media tools to bolster their cause but younger more tech-savvy voters use new and even more effective data mining tools to out-organizer the “geezer geeks.”
2016: In the face of the growing environmental costs of producing, processing, shipping, packaging and storing meat, the FDA approves lab-grown pork for the commercial marketplace. PETA applauds the move but Greenpeace vows to fight the growing trend and labels lab-grown meat as “Frankenfood II.” By this time in the decade, a major biological attack will have occurred somewhere in the developed world and a number of democratic governments will have responded by limiting personal freedoms in exchange for greater security. (Advances in predictive algorithms; data mining; and face and voice recognition; cheap camera; and sensor technology will make security technology very effective.)
2017: Time Magazine will be in serious discussions about ending the print version of its magazine and will name “The Robot” as its 2017 “Person of the Year.” Space flight—at least into the outer atmosphere—will become affordable for upper middle class individuals.
2018: Diamonds will no longer be a “girl’s best friend.” The natural diamond market will collapse in the face of the superiority of synthetic diamonds. On a different note, startling progress in the field of tissue regeneration will have eliminated organ shortages and made organ donations as irrelevant as radiation therapy.
2019: The decade will be come to be referred to as “the turbulent teens” due to the growing maturity of such countries as India and Brazil; the wide-spread economic disruption wrought by technological advancement; and a renewed sense of optimism due to the fact that so many things once deemed “impossible” are now coming to fruition.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
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The Future’s So Fast It’ll Slow Down
I’m not trying to get deep on you with this title: The Future Is So Fast It’s Slow. Instead, I want to make an important point about the future. It is a fact that technology is accelerating. It is easy, therefore, to jump to the conclusion that everything else will speed up as well. In many cases this it true but not always.
In a counter-intuitive way, the future’s accelerating pace of change can work against itself. How so, you ask? Consider the case of the flat panel television. How many of you postponed a purchase because you were afraid that the television you purchased would be obsolete as soon as you bought it? My guess is that you may have delayed your last laptop computer for the same reason.
The number of items about to experience this effect will soon accelerate. Consider your car purchase. Will you delay buying a new car because a new hybrid vehicle may soon be available or, perhaps, a new higher MPG version is soon expected. The same thing will happen with cellphones, electronic books, and solar cells.
The pace of change is these areas is accelerating so rapidly that it is hard to know when to pull the trigger and buy a specific. As a result, you don’t. This lack of capital in turn retards progress.
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Evolution Requires Unlearning
I am not an evolutionary biologist. I do not play one on television and, even though this is the Internet, I won’t try to pretend I am one. Nevertheless, I have come to the conclusion that unlearning will be an essential skill in the future because I am of the opinion that human evolution is an exponential trend.
Let me put it another way. Until about 200 years ago the average person could expect two constants in his or her life. First, life didn’t change much. If your grandfather was a farmer (or peasant) it was likely that your father was also a farmer or peasant and so were you. Moreover, you all lived life in much the same way and used the same tools and equipment.
The second constant was that your life was short. Assuming you successfully survived the first few years of your life (and this, by the way, was no easy task), you could expect to live until the rip old age of 50.
Under such conditions it was appropriate to put a premium on learning because whatever you learned you could expect to utilize the remainder of your life.
In today’s era of accelerating technological change, however, the equation has been flipped on its head. The shelf life of knowledge is growing ever shorter and we must realize that much of what we will learn will need to be unlearned shortly thereafter.
Society has not yet fully recognized the extent of this shift but it will have profound implications for how we educate ourselves and our children. I’d love to hear your ideas about: 1) Whether you agree with my premise; and 2) How you’d try to help society deal with this change. (One idea I have is that we must teach unlearning beginning in kindergarten.)
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The Future Requires Unlearning
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Not Unmindful of the Future
Yesterday, I had the pleasure of addressing members of the Federal Executive Institute at the Marshall Foundation in Lexington, Virginia. The subject of my presentation was “Leading in an Era of Exponential Change: The Example of General George C. Marshall.” As readers know, I believe Marshall is the epitome of an “exponential executive,” and it is why I wrote an entire book on his extraordinary leadership skills: Soldier, Statesman, Peacemaker: The Leadership Lessons of General George C. Marshall.
After my presentation, I had the pleasure of tagging along with the class as it received a tour of the Washington & Lee Chapel where Robert E. Lee is buried. As I listened to the lecture, I learned that the Lee family (and now the Washington & Lee University) coat of arms bears the Latin motto: Non In Cautus Futuri. It translates to: “Not Unmindful of the Future.”
It is a wonderful phrase and it is a principle I strive everyday, as a professional futurist, to abide by.
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12 Months of Jumping the Curve
Dear Readers:
I will be on vacation in Mexico with my family until Monday, January 4th, 2010. Posted below are the past 12 editions of my monthly newsletter, The Exponential Executive for your reading pleasure. Each edition has plenty of provocative fodder for your brain. Enjoy! (If you wish to receive my monthly newsletter, please send me an email at jack@nanoveritas.com.)
December 2009: The Exponential Executive
November 2009: The Exponential Executive
October 2009: The Exponential Executive
September 2009: The Exponential Executive
August 2009: The Exponential Executive
July 2009: The Exponential Executive
June 2009: The Exponential Executive
May 2009: The Exponential Executive
April 2009: The Exponential Executive
March 2009: The Exponential Executive
February 2009: The Exponential Executive
January 2009: The Exponential Executive
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Futurist Jack Uldrich’s Predictions for 2010
#1: By the end of 2010, one-third of all automotive ads will focus exclusively on software-driven features that emphasize future car’s ability to interpret, react and connect to the external environment. Far less emphasis will be placed on car’s physical appearance and performance.
#2: One 4-year college will decrease its tuition by more than 5% in 2010 citing growing pressure from online universities; 10 universities will follow Princeton’s lead and begin distributing e-Books (such as the Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader) to incoming students; and at least 100 other colleges and universities will follow Boston University’s lead in eliminating email addresses for incoming freshmen.
#3: The sale of solar cells will grow faster than expected due to innovations in new financing models that minimize or eliminate altogether the large up-front costs currently associated with installing solar modules.
#4: The first fully robotic vehicle will become operational in Iraq and Afghanistan and will successfully deliver military supplies more than 25 miles without the aid of any humans.
#5: A socially-networked song in which none of the band members knew one another prior to the song’s release will become a Billboard Top Ten hit. The band will attempt to conduct a conventional tour but will soon breakup citing “artistic differences.” The real cause: they find they just don’t like one another.
#6:The first cyborg soldier—with above average human capabilities in terms of strength, speed and/or vision—will return to active duty. Nicknamed “Steve Austin” by his fellow soldiers; the technology inside “the bionic man” (or bionic woman) will cost far less than 6 million dollars.
#7: An amateur scientist using cheap supercomputers accessed through “the cloud” will make a major scientific discovery. Her discovery will have initially been dismissed by peer-reviewed journals but hailed by the growing number of “open-science” advocates.
#8: A full two years before its first-ever “Space Tourism” launch, Galactic Suite Ltd will lower the price of its three-day trip to space from $4.4 million to $2 million.
#9: A physician in India will perform a prostectonomy on a patient in a different country using only a high-speed Internet connection and da Vinci robotic surgical device. The “medical tourist” in Sri Lanka will return to the United States the following day.
#10: A new iPhone app will be created which overlays a “Nascar-like” suit over the images of Congressmen and other prominent politicians to reveal from whom they are receiving campaign contributions. The size of the “patch” will vary according to the amount of campaign contributions they have received from the organization. The new app will bring heightened attention to the burgeoning field of augmented reality.
#11: An RFID chip embedded in the arm of an elderly Alzheimer patient will be credited with saving the man from freezing to death after he strolled away from his residence in the middle of the night and became disoriented.
#12: A leading concrete company will call for a ban on carbon dioxide emissions from concrete because its nanotechnology-enable concrete will be certified as a “CO2 neutral.”
#13: Hype surround algae’s promise as the “bio-fuel of the future” will grow hot after a breakthrough in the field of synthetic biology. Environmental advocates, however, will draw parallels between the advent of the “designer bacteria” (which is used to convert algae into fuel) and the creation of genetically modified organisms. The issue of “Frankenbugs” will gain traction in the media.
#14: Mind-control toys will grow from a small niche product in 2009 to the latest “must-have” toy by the 2010 holiday season. The technology will sell very well among kids under the age of 10 and seniors over the age of 65. Interest in brain-neural technology will also be driven by plummeting prices and increased product performance.
#15: Synthetically grown diamonds will make their way into the commercial marketplace but the diamond industry will have no ability to discern the products from “natural” diamonds. The diamond industry will attempt to downplay the significance of the event but will quietly ramp up efforts to regulate and control the creation of synthetic diamonds.
#16: A robotic pet that also serves as a companion, watch dog, vacuum cleaner and a personal healthcare monitor will be unveiled in Japan and marketed to the seniors. Voice recognition technology inside the robot will also be able to detect if a person"s speech is slurring and will connect to a healthcare professional immediately.
#17: The cost of sequencing an individual’s genome will drop to less than $1000. The breakthrough will lead to the creation of a rash of new social networking sites around different genetic dispositions in order to deal with the avalanche of genetic information. Genetic counseling will become one of the fastest growing professions in the coming decade.
#18: The growing sophistication of language translational software (available on such platforms as Google Wave) will cause leading corporations to revisit some job descriptions which currently require candidates to speak two languages. Citing the technology’s ability to facilitate conversations with native speakers, the city of Paris will become an even more popular tourist destination.
#19: A conservative state legislator will introduce legislation prohibiting healthy individuals (i.e. non-injured combat veterans) from using implanted brain-neural technology to control objects outside their body. The bill will die in committee but the author and other supporters vow to make it a campaign issue in 2010.
#20: Technology artisans will begin using inexpensive rapid prototype manufacturing equipment to develop new pieces of art and jewelry of previously unseen sophistication, complexity and beauty. More traditional artisans will ask that “non hand-made” products be banned from local art fairs.
The “Back to the Future” Prediction of 2010: A barefoot runner will win a major marathon and fuel a growing trend among recreational runners to run without shoes.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
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10 Quotes on Unlearning
I have said before that the future will require unlearning and that unlearning will be one of the most critical skills for successfully navigating the future. With this thought in mind, here then are 10 quotes to consider:
#1. “The illiterate of the twenty-first century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn.” --Alvin Toffler
#2: “The greater our knowledge increases, the greater our ignorance unfolds.”—President John F. Kennedy
#3: “In a time of drastic change, it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists”. --Eric Hoffer
#4: “In some sense our ability to open the future will depend not on how well we learn anymore but on how well we are able to unlearn”.—Alan Kay
#5: “Two things seemed pretty apparent to me. One was that in order to be a pilot a man had to learn more than any one man ought to learn; and the other was that he must learn it all over again in a different way every 24 hours.”—Mark Twain
#6: “Be very, very careful what you put into that head, because you will never, ever get it out.” --Thomas Cardinal Wolsey
#7: “The most important lessons lay not in what I needed to learn, but in what I first needed to unlearn.” Jim Collins
#8: “Strange about learning; the farther I go the more I see that I never knew even existed. A short while ago I foolishly thought I could learn everything--all the knowledge in the world. Now I hope only to be able to know of its existence, and to understand one grain of it.”—Charly in Flowers for Algernon
#9: “The most useful piece of learning for the uses of life is to unlearn what is untrue.”—Antisthenes
#10: “The difficulty lies, not in new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of have been, into the corners of our minds.”—John Maynard Keynes
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A Futurist’s Future
Earlier this month, as a professional futurist, I put together a list of my top 20 technology-based predictions for 2010. Earlier this week, futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted how technology will change humanity by 2020. (It’s a great read and you can access it here.)
Among the highlights, by 2020:
1. Memory devices will be integrated into our clothing;
2. People will have ways to touch each other virtually;
3. Solar energy will continue to grow exponentially; and
4. Advances in genomics will address the problem of obestity.
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The Future of Police Surveillance?
The police officer’s quote at the end of this video says it all: “This technology [automatic license plate recognition] is going to revolutionize law enforcement.” It is impressive technology but the civil libertarian in me is concerned that in the hands of over-zealous law enforcement officials the technology can also be abused.
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Jack Uldrich’s Interview on The Small Business Advocate
Earlier today, I appeared on Jim Blasingame’s nationally-syndicated radio program, The Small Business Advocate, to discuss my predictions for 2010. Below is the full interview:
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Is this the Future of Magazines and Newspapers?
Does Sports Illustrated have its pulse on the future of magazines and newspapers? I believe it does. I encourage you to watch this three minute video demonstration of what the company is working on:
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Extrapolate Forward: 2010 Predictions from Futurist Jack Uldrich
#1: By the end of 2010, one-third of all automotive ads will focus exclusively on software-driven features that emphasize future car’s ability to interpret, react and connect to the external environment. Far less emphasis will be placed on car’s physical appearance and performance.
#2: One 4-year college will decrease its tuition by more than 5% in 2010 citing growing pressure from online universities; 10 universities will follow Princeton’s lead and begin distributing e-Books (such as the Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader) to incoming students; and at least 100 other colleges and universities will follow Boston University’s lead in eliminating email addresses for incoming freshmen.
#3: The sale of solar cells will grow faster than expected due to innovations in new financing models that minimize or eliminate altogether the large up-front costs currently associated with installing solar modules.
#4: The first fully robotic vehicle will become operational in Iraq and Afghanistan and will successfully deliver military supplies more than 25 miles without the aid of any humans.
#5: A socially-networked song in which none of the band members knew one another prior to the song’s release will become a Billboard Top Ten hit. The band will attempt to conduct a conventional tour but will soon breakup citing “artistic differences.” The real cause: they find they just don’t like one another.
#6:The first cyborg soldier—with above average human capabilities in terms of strength, speed and/or vision—will return to active duty. Nicknamed “Steve Austin” by his fellow soldiers; the technology inside “the bionic man” (or bionic woman) will cost far less than 6 million dollars.
#7: An amateur scientist using cheap supercomputers accessed through “the cloud” will make a major scientific discovery. Her discovery will have initially been dismissed by peer-reviewed journals but hailed by the growing number of “open-science” advocates.
#8: A full two years before its first-ever “Space Tourism” launch, Galactic Suite Ltd will lower the price of its three-day trip to space from $4.4 million to $2 million.
#9: A physician in India will perform a prostectonomy on a patient in a different country using only a high-speed Internet connection and da Vinci robotic surgical device. The “medical tourist” in Sri Lanka will return to the United States the following day.
#10: A new iPhone app will be created which overlays a “Nascar-like” suit over the images of Congressmen and other prominent politicians to reveal from whom they are receiving campaign contributions. The size of the “patch” will vary according to the amount of campaign contributions they have received from the organization. The new app will bring heightened attention to the burgeoning field of augmented reality.
#11: An RFID chip embedded in the arm of an elderly Alzheimer patient will be credited with saving the man from freezing to death after he strolled away from his residence in the middle of the night and became disoriented.
#12: A leading concrete company will call for a ban on carbon dioxide emissions from concrete because its nanotechnology-enable concrete will be certified as a “CO2 neutral.”
#13: Hype surround algae’s promise as the “bio-fuel of the future” will grow hot after a breakthrough in the field of synthetic biology. Environmental advocates, however, will draw parallels between the advent of the “designer bacteria” (which is used to convert algae into fuel) and the creation of genetically modified organisms. The issue of “Frankenbugs” will gain traction in the media.
#14: Mind-control toys will grow from a small niche product in 2009 to the latest “must-have” toy by the 2010 holiday season. The technology will sell very well among kids under the age of 10 and seniors over the age of 65. Interest in brain-neural technology will also be driven by plummeting prices and increased product performance.
#15: Synthetically grown diamonds will make their way into the commercial marketplace but the diamond industry will have no ability to discern the products from “natural” diamonds. The diamond industry will attempt to downplay the significance of the event but will quietly ramp up efforts to regulate and control the creation of synthetic diamonds.
#16: A robotic pet that also serves as a companion, watch dog, vacuum cleaner and a personal healthcare monitor will be unveiled in Japan and marketed to the seniors. Voice recognition technology inside the robot will also be able to detect if a person"s speech is slurring and will connect to a healthcare professional immediately.
#17: The cost of sequencing an individual’s genome will drop to less than $1000. The breakthrough will lead to the creation of a rash of new social networking sites around different genetic dispositions in order to deal with the avalanche of genetic information. Genetic counseling will become one of the fastest growing professions in the coming decade.
#18: The growing sophistication of language translational software (available on such platforms as Google Wave) will cause leading corporations to revisit some job descriptions which currently require candidates to speak two languages. Citing the technology’s ability to facilitate conversations with native speakers, the city of Paris will become an even more popular tourist destination.
#19: A conservative state legislator will introduce legislation prohibiting healthy individuals (i.e. non-injured combat veterans) from using implanted brain-neural technology to control objects outside their body. The bill will die in committee but the author and other supporters vow to make it a campaign issue in 2010.
#20: Technology artisans will begin using inexpensive rapid prototype manufacturing equipment to develop new pieces of art and jewelry of previously unseen sophistication, complexity and beauty. More traditional artisans will ask that “non hand-made” products be banned from local art fairs.
The “Back to the Future” Prediction of 2010: A barefoot runner will win a major marathon and fuel a growing trend among recreational runners to run without shoes.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
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To Prepare for the Future: Study at an Anti-Library
“There is a huge difference between what people actually know and how much they think they know.”—Nassim Taleb
Question: Which of these animals is more likely to kill you: A shark or a deer?
If you said a shark you are not alone. The right answer, however, is the deer. Even if you answered the question correctly the odds of being killed by a deer instead of a shark may surprise you. You are 300-times more likely to be killed at the hands—or the “hoof” if you will—of a deer.
The reason the vast majority of people incorrectly answer this question is because shark attacks, although quite rare, are both vividly recalled and easy to imagine. It is not uncommon for television news stories to report shark attacks even when those attacks occur thousands of miles away; and, if you are over the age of 40, you will likely recall the movie “Jaws.” The former leaves the impression shark attacks are more common than they really are, while the latter ensures those rare attacks are “felt” at a deep, visceral level.
Instances of drivers striking deer on remote country roads and dying in the resulting collision, on the other hand, are much more common. They are so common, in fact, that they rarely warrant even a passing mention on the local news.
The discrepancy between the relative danger of sharks and deer is a poignant reminder of that old adage: What we don’t know is more important than what we do know. Or as Henry David Thoreau more elegantly framed the issue: ”How can we remember our ignorance, which our growth requires, when we are using our knowledge all the time?”
One of the better ways to remind of ourselves of our ignorance—and to remain open to the concept of unlearning—is to keep our ignorance top-of-mind. One of the more effective tools to do this is to create an anti-library. As Nassim Taleb recounts in his provocative and insightful book, The Black Swan, an anti-library is a collection of books that one hasn’t read.
Unlike a shelf or bookcase filled with previously read books, an anti-library houses unread books that contain valuable information but which you haven’t had a chance to access. With an estimated 3,000 new books being published daily and the rate of scientific knowledge purported to be doubling every seven years, it is safe to assume that there is a growing body of knowledge which is relevant to you and your business.
Unfortunately, you won’t often know what this missing knowledge is! The best you can do in such a deplorable situation is to stay intellectually humble by reminding yourself of your growing ignorance and the need to remain open to unlearning.
You are free to ignore this advice but remember this: What you don’t know can kill you—almost as easily as a deer.
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Jack Uldrich’s 2010 Technology Forecast & Predictions
#1: By the end of 2010, one-third of all automotive ads will focus exclusively on software-driven features that emphasize future car’s ability to interpret, react and connect to the external environment. Far less emphasis will be placed on car’s physical appearance and performance.
#2: One 4-year college will decrease its tuition by more than 5% in 2010 citing growing pressure from online universities; 10 universities will follow Princeton’s lead and begin distributing e-Books (such as the Amazon Kindle and Sony Reader) to incoming students; and at least 100 other colleges and universities will follow Boston University’s lead in eliminating email addresses for incoming freshmen.
#3: The sale of solar cells will grow faster than expected due to innovations in new financing models that minimize or eliminate altogether the large up-front costs currently associated with installing solar modules.
#4: The first fully robotic vehicle will become operational in Iraq and Afghanistan and will successfully deliver military supplies more than 25 miles without the aid of any humans.
#5: A socially-networked song in which none of the band members knew one another prior to the song’s release will become a Billboard Top Ten hit. The band will attempt to conduct a conventional tour but will soon breakup citing “artistic differences.” The real cause: they find they just don’t like one another.
#6:The first cyborg soldier—with above average human capabilities in terms of strength, speed and/or vision—will return to active duty. Nicknamed “Steve Austin” by his fellow soldiers; the technology inside “the bionic man” (or bionic woman) will cost far less than 6 million dollars.
#7: An amateur scientist using cheap supercomputers accessed through “the cloud” will make a major scientific discovery. Her discovery will have initially been dismissed by peer-reviewed journals but hailed by the growing number of “open-science” advocates.
#8: A full two years before its first-ever “Space Tourism” launch, Galactic Suite Ltd will lower the price of its three-day trip to space from $4.4 million to $2 million.
#9: A physician in India will perform a prostectonomy on a patient in a different country using only a high-speed Internet connection and da Vinci robotic surgical device. The “medical tourist” in Sri Lanka will return to the United States the following day.
#10: A new iPhone app will be created which overlays a “Nascar-like” suit over the images of Congressmen and other prominent politicians to reveal from whom they are receiving campaign contributions. The size of the “patch” will vary according to the amount of campaign contributions they have received from the organization. The new app will bring heightened attention to the burgeoning field of augmented reality.
#11: An RFID chip embedded in the arm of an elderly Alzheimer patient will be credited with saving the man from freezing to death after he strolled away from his residence in the middle of the night and became disoriented.
#12: A leading concrete company will call for a ban on carbon dioxide emissions from concrete because its nanotechnology-enable concrete will be certified as a “CO2 neutral.”
#13: Hype surround algae’s promise as the “bio-fuel of the future” will grow hot after a breakthrough in the field of synthetic biology. Environmental advocates, however, will draw parallels between the advent of the “designer bacteria” (which is used to convert algae into fuel) and the creation of genetically modified organisms. The issue of “Frankenbugs” will gain traction in the media.
#14: Mind-control toys will grow from a small niche product in 2009 to the latest “must-have” toy by the 2010 holiday season. The technology will sell very well among kids under the age of 10 and seniors over the age of 65. Interest in brain-neural technology will also be driven by plummeting prices and increased product performance.
#15: Synthetically grown diamonds will make their way into the commercial marketplace but the diamond industry will have no ability to discern the products from “natural” diamonds. The diamond industry will attempt to downplay the significance of the event but will quietly ramp up efforts to regulate and control the creation of synthetic diamonds.
#16: A robotic pet that also serves as a companion, watch dog, vacuum cleaner and a personal healthcare monitor will be unveiled in Japan and marketed to the seniors. Voice recognition technology inside the robot will also be able to detect if a person"s speech is slurring and will connect to a healthcare professional immediately.
#17: The cost of sequencing an individual’s genome will drop to less than $1000. The breakthrough will lead to the creation of a rash of new social networking sites around different genetic dispositions in order to deal with the avalanche of genetic information. Genetic counseling will become one of the fastest growing professions in the coming decade.
#18: The growing sophistication of language translational software (available on such platforms as Google Wave) will cause leading corporations to revisit some job descriptions which currently require candidates to speak two languages. Citing the technology’s ability to facilitate conversations with native speakers, the city of Paris will become an even more popular tourist destination.
#19: A conservative state legislator will introduce legislation prohibiting healthy individuals (i.e. non-injured combat veterans) from using implanted brain-neural technology to control objects outside their body. The bill will die in committee but the author and other supporters vow to make it a campaign issue in 2010.
#20: Technology artisans will begin using inexpensive rapid prototype manufacturing equipment to develop new pieces of art and jewelry of previously unseen sophistication, complexity and beauty. More traditional artisans will ask that “non hand-made” products be banned from local art fairs.
The “Back to the Future” Prediction of 2010: A barefoot runner will win a major marathon and fuel a growing trend among recreational runners to run without shoes.
Jack Uldrich is an author, futurist, keynote speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations. He can be contacted at 612.267.1212 or jack@nanoveritas.com.
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To Better Understand the Future, Add Some Sci-Fi to Your Reading Diet
As I stated in my 2008 book, Jump the Curve, one effective way to jump the curve is to add some science fiction to your reading diet—it can be a great source of inspiration and creativity. To this end, the Wall Street Journal yesterday ran this article, Technology is Stranger Than Fiction. I particularly enjoyed this quote: “In a time of great change, fiction can sometimes provide better understanding than facts alone.” Along these same lines, PC Pro recently published this article entitled ”The sci-fi legends who shaped today’s tech.” My favorite quote: “Sci-fi can consciously or unconsciously help [you] think outside the box.”
So there you have it—further proof that adding some sci-fi to your reading diet is good for your long-term health.
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Speaker Ray Kurzweil vs Jack Uldrich: Leading Futurists
In my business as a professional futurist and keynote speaker, my message is often compared to that of Ray Kurzweil’s—the noted inventor, author and futurist. And, to be honest, much of my thinking about the future has been influenced by Kurzweil. Nevertheless, in terms of style, how we deliver our respective messages about the accelerating pace of change are fundamentally different.
I have posted video samples of both of our work below but the difference can best be summed up by the idea that while Kurzweil focuses almost exclusively on technological trends, I focus more on how to help businesses and organizations think differently about the future.
To do this, I rely heavily on analogies and stories. I also spend more time outlining the skills—such as unlearning, becoming aware of “Black Swans,” ”Thinking Like a Child,” and ”Doing the Impossible”—which organizations will need in order to navigate tomorrow’s accelerating future.
Therefore, depending upon which type of futurist and keynote speaker your organization is looking for, you can either contact Ray’s speaker bureau or mine.
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The Future Needs More “Zero Gravity” Thinkers
In the New York Times a while back there was an interesting commentary entitled ”Innovative Minds Don’t Think Alike.” It is hardly a revolutionary idea but the author makes a good case that any number of businesses can benefit from an outsider’s perspective.
I would take this argument a step further and argue that businesses should also actively seek out cross-disciplinary thinkers—generalists who are well-versed in a variety of different fields. I say this because history has proven that innovation only rarely comes from those experts who know “more and more about less and less.”
More often, the really big breakthroughs come from those thinkers who are able to make connections between different discoveries. As James Burke reminds us in his excellent book, Connections, Alexander Graham Bell was not an expert in either electricity or magnetism, but he knew enough to combine the work of Leon Scott, Michael Faraday and H.C. Oersted to invent the telephone.
In this same way, I don’t believe that the next great breakthroughs will result from straight scientific discoveries in nanotechnology, material science, computers, robotics or brain-scanning technology. Instead, they will come from the convergence of these different forces by individuals who are able to make unique connections. Therefore, in order to “jump the curve” and stay ahead of these breakthroughs (or, better yet, have your company make the breakthroughs) it will help to bring in not just “zero-gravity” thinkers but some cross-disciplinary thinkers as well.
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To Succeed in the Future: Think Like a Child, Now
Success Magazine recently published an article entitled ”Think Like a Child” in which I was quoted extensively. I encourage you to read it because, in addition to my insights (which I naturally think are insightful), it cites a number of other experts and practioners of “thinking like a child.” Here are a few highlights:
1. Children are naturally curious and open-minded;
2. Children aren’t conscious of what other people think;
3. Children don’t easily take “no” for an answer;
4. Children understand that recess can be the most important part of the day;
5. Children engage their imagination and aren’t afraid to try on new roles;
6. Children draw their inspiration from other children; and
7. Children don’t view setbacks as failures.
For some other child-like thoughts, I invite you to review these past writings:
The Power of Play
Stop Acting Your Age
Take a Mandatory Recess
The Power of Creative Play
Cultivate a Beginner’s Mind
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The Future Requires Engaging in Situational Unawareness Training
”Be very, very careful what you put into that head, because you will never, ever get it out.”—Thomas Cardinal Wolsey
Question: What two colors are the yield sign?
Did you say yellow and black? That answer would have been correct if Marcus Welby, M.D. was still the top-rated TV show; Richard Nixon occupied the White House or NASDAQ had yet to become a leading stock market index. The yield sign, though, has been red and white since 1971. Interestingly, a large number of people—including many born after 1971 - still erroneously believe the yield sign is yellow and black.
This phenomenon demonstrates that once a thing has been learned—even something as common as the color of a sign—it can be very difficult to unlearn.
Compare this situation with the actions of computer industry executives in the 1980s who had learned about computers in the era of mammoth mainframes and were accustomed to producing their own proprietary hardware and software and then having internal sales teams market and sell the expensive products they created.
With the advent of the personal computer the rules suddenly changed and companies began relying on microprocessors and packaged software and using third parties to distribute and sell the product. A handful of computer companies adjusted but many others such as Digital Equipment, Wang and Burroughs did not because either they didn’t unlearn the old rules or were late in adjusting to the new signs.
The same situation occurred more recently in the telecommunications industry. Prior to the creation of the iPhone, providers dominated the telecom industry and dictated to phone manufacturers the terms of agreement. The creation of Apple’s multi-touch, gesture interface and “apps"--laden device flipped the industry on its head. In a matter of months, millions of people switched providers and began using mobile devices to access the Internet (with a user--friendly browser), watch videos, read books and, together with the growing universe of software applications, do everything from locate their parked car at an airport and identifying obscure birds and songs to keeping their child mildly amused with an easy-to-download “fart app.”
In each case, the signs of change were not immediately obvious but they could have been picked up on if industry leaders had engaged in some situational “unawareness” training by stepping outside their industry’s existing paradigm and scanning the environment for subtle changes in technology, consumer behavior or the competitive landscape. For example, in the automotive industry, new advances in nano-materials and battery power could lead to radical new designs; the continued growth of social networking may demand the cars of the future to maintain constant connectivity and improve the driving experience; and advances in robotics and rapid prototyping could transform both the manufacturing process and the supply chain. In each case, automotive professionals will have to unlearn what a car looks like; how it is made; what it is expected to do; and who they will have to partner with in order to build the car of the future.
Homework Assignment: Using Starbucks as a case study, indentify three emerging trends in technology, consumer behavior or the beverage/food industry that may necessitate company officials to unlearn some aspects of its current business model.
Extra Credit: Identify at least two things which have contributed to Starbucks past success but that it should consider stop doing? (Hint: In 2009, the company dropped its name from a store in Seattle and replaced it with a name that more closely resembles a neighborhood corner coffee shop.)
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The Future of Politics Will be Augmented
It has been said that it’s easy to tell if a politician is lying: all you have to do is see whether his or her lips are moving. I’m not that cynical about politics but when I do hear a politician speaking I would like to know which interest groups have contributed to that individual so I can better understand who they are really “representing.” (This information would be very helpful during the current debate over health care reform.)
Such information is, of course, available through sites such as the Center for Responsive Politics. But in today’s “app-centric” world what I want to see is a downloadable app for my iPhone that allows me to point my phone at a politician (or a picture of that politician) and have the names—and the dollar amounts—of the lobbying organizations that have contributed to that individual appear on the image. To make the app more fun—and, arguably, realistic—perhaps the developer could even dress up the politician in a NASCAR-like racing suit so that their various “sponsors” logos are appended on their suit.
If such an app already exists, I’d love to hear about it. If one doesn’t, my guess is that one will within the next year.
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To Be Persuasive, Unlearn
Writing in the Philadelphia Inquirer, Mark Bowden has an excellent commentary entitled ”The lost art of influence.” At one point he writes, ”Being persuasive is hard, because it demands you consider that you might be wrong. To refute opposing points of view capably (and winningly) you must first really hear opposing points of view.”
Admitting that you might be wrong and really listening—the two traits (or skills) are also integral components of unlearning. Therefore, I’d argue, that if you want to enhance your skills of persuasion it would also behoove you to enhance your unlearning skills.
Of course, I’m open to your ideas and I promise I’ll really listen if you disagree with me.
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The Future Can Be Viewed With Augmented Reality
I have always been impressed with the work being done at Georgia Tech and recently I had the opportunity to conduct an all-day workshop on emerging technologies with IT officials from around the state of Georgia. I spent a good deal of time discussing augmented reality but I wish I would have known about the video from Georgia Tech which I have posted below. Better than a verbal explanation, it vividly shows how augmented reality might be used to enhance the flow of traffic in the near future.
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To “Walk the Escalator” It Helps to Have a Sense of Humor
A while back, one of those all-too-common articles stating what is already patently obvious to most people (e.g. “Study confirms exercise bolsters health,” etc.) appeared in BusinessWeek. The gist of the article was that humor increases work place productivity. No shit!
In that spirit then I’d like to share with you this hilarious article from The Onion, entitled, ”Study Finds Working at Work Improves Productivity.”
I’d also encourage you to watch this short commercial. Better than any of the past articles I have written on ”walking the escalator,” it demonstrates in vivid fashion what I mean by the phrase. Enjoy and have a great weekend!
Broken Escalator - These bloopers are hilarious
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Hey YouTwitFace, The Future Will Require Unlearning Social Media
Earlier today I had the opportunity to give a short presentation on unlearning to the Olson advertising agency in Minneapolis. During the course of my talk I mentioned how fast technology is changing and I reminded my audience that although Facebook is only 5 years old and Twitter barely 3 years of age, it is important to remember that new social media tools are being created everyday—some of which will undoubtedly require us to unlearn some of our current communications habits. Afterwards, someone mentioned that Conan O’Brien addressed this very theme during last evening’s 2009 Emmy Awards. Enjoy this short (and hilarious) look at the Year 3000.
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The Future of Urban Planning?
Forbes has an interesting article discussing South Korea’s new $35 billion planned city, Songdo. The article attempts to portray the city as a vision of “future cities,” yet after reading the article I am less than convinced. I’m sure the main planners, Gale International, are doing a great many things which are not discussed in the article but it seems as though much of the technology discussed will soon be rendered obsolete by new technology. It was—and still is—unclear to me how the city planners are thinking about incorporating future technologies into the planning process.
Obviously, this is extremely tricky, since no one—and I mean no one—knows what such future technologies will be but, at a minimum, I would argue that “flexibility” must be an important principle. For example, how can buildings change function as the average age of the community grows older or new industries come into existence? Or how will hospitals change as the city’s emphasis on preventative medicine takes root or how will schools be transformed if virtual reality technologies become more prominent?
Furthermore, fuel cell buses and water canels are all fine and well but what happens if battery technologies grow exponentially better and electric vehicles become the norm? Alternatively how might the city’s energy infratsructure change if tidal power becomes more viable?
The bottomline, I guess, is this: future cities are likely to look much different than Songdo because, if for no other reason, cities and technologies are constantly changing. Beware of anyone who claims to know what the vision of “future” cities will look like.
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Calling All Contractors: The Future of Construction is on Your Phone
In the recent past, I have written about the future of the construction industry and the future of the cellphone. Recently, a new tool—the Punch List App—has been brought to my attention which addresses the two areas and I believe it has the potential to save contractors, sub-contractors and, ultimately, customers a great deal of both money and time.
I strongly encourage you to read this article, entitled Bringing Your Punch List Into the 21st Century, but a few of the highlights of the technology that jumped out at me included: manipulating 3-D models of a specific room with your fingers; geo-tagging photos of certain problem issues; and attaching audio notes to those photos. The software also has the ability to assign tasks to the nearest employee.
In general, the app should help contractors streamline communications and better organize information—and for that reason alone it is a technology that should be considered now by every construction company, contractor and sub-contractor.
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