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Examples of Unexponential Thinking

The purpose of new book, Jump the Curve, is to encourage people to think differently about the future and, as such, I spend a great deal of time offering examples of how I believe the future will be radically different than many people think. Often I use positive examples of individuals who are capable of “exponential thinking” such as Randy Pausch.

There is, of course, an alternative approach and that is to castigate individuals who I believe are guilty of “unexponential thinking.” Let me offer just two examples from today’s news.

The first comes from an article in MIT’s Technology Review entitled ”A Cell Phone That Spots Bad Breath.” It is a wonderful atricle and it explains how cellphone companies are actively exploring the idea of using phones to help people check their breath by incorporating a “halitosis meter” into the phone. To me, the idea makes perfect sense because I understand how exponential advances in sensor technology make this possible; but to Pat Lenton, a research fellow at the University of Minnesota, the idea is ludricous because—and I qoute—“this notion that this little cell phone could do the work of very elaborate equipment is just highly unlikely.” Oh really? I wonder if it ever occurred to Mr. Lenton that yesterday’s multi-million dollar computers, data storage devices and video cameras are now regularly placed inside cellphones?

Yet another example comes compliments of a second professor who has questioned the ability of social networking software to influence political campaigns. This piece explains how Eventful, a grassroots website that allows people to send market signals to politicians, musicians and others that there is market for their presense or services in their home area. The site is now catching on with the political class. To David Dulio, however, the suggestion that just because 1,800 people attended a rally for John Edwards which was organized with the software is hardly proof of a meaningful technology. As he points out, there are 120 million voters in America and 1,800 isn’t even a drop in the bucket. Perhaps Mr. Dulio is correct, but I would argue that in 2001 Wikipedia had only 100 entries and today it has over 6 million and counting. Could Eventful experience the same type of growth? Absolutely and if it does, Mr. Dulio could be in for a surprise because of his inability to think exponentially.

Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.

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