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Futurists Can Say the Dumbest Things

As someone who is described as a futurist, I make it a point to read up on what other futurists are saying about the field. To this end, I would encourage you to read this short article in Forbes that was written by James Canton. An even more insightful interview can be found in this lengthy discussion with Ian Pearson, who is a futurist for British Telecom.

On occasions, though, I will come across an article either by—or about—a futurist that will make me cringe. Yesterday, I stumbled across just such an article. It comes from the Australian newspaper, The Age and it profiles Ray Hammond, “a European author and futurologist.” In defense of Mr. Hammond, let me begin by saying that I am in wholehearted agreement with this theory of “accelerating exponential technologies”—the same idea lies at the heart of my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve.

Yet, quite surprisingly, Mr. Hammond is quoted in the same article as saying “I can be certain there will be an energy crisis in the next 50 to 100 years.” From my perspective, this is an absolutely asinine thing to say. If Mr. Hammond truly believes in the idea of “accelerating exponential technologies,” does he somehow seem to think that such technological advances will simply jump over the energy industry?

When I scan the future, I have reached the absolute opposite conclusion as Mr. Hammond. I believe in 50 to 100 years we will be living in an era of cheap, clean, sustainable and abundant energy. As proof, I would submit how advances in nanotechnology are likely to lead to the creation of highly-efficient, low-cost, flexible polymer solar cells. If people doubt this prediction, I encourage them to review the work that companies such as NanoSolar, Miasole and Konarka are currently doing in the field and then extrapolate those advances out 50 years.

I believe that new advances in nanomaterials will lead to highly-efficient batteries. Nanotechnology might also make fuel cells radically more efficient, and new nanoparticles could usher in the age of clean coal. Who knows, new nanomaterials might even be developed that can safely store radioactive waste from nuclear power plants. If this occurs, a good deal of opposition to nuclear power might erode. Similarly, advances in synthetic biology could herald a new era of inexpensive, clean biofuels such as I described in this earlier post.

In short, based on today’s current level of technological progress I see absolutely no reason for Mr. Hammond’s pessisism. To be fair, I’ll admit that my version of the future might also not come true; but unlike Mr. Hammond I don’t claim to know the future with certainty. And that’s really my point, whenever you hear a futurist—including myself, Ray Hammond, James Canton or Ian Pearson—claim they know with “certainty” what the future will look like in 50 years; you shouldn’t just take it with a grain of salt, you should call “Bullshit” because no one knows with “certainty” what the future will look like.

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.

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