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In regards to this and your latest post, I would say this is the one type of exponential growth you want to avoid:  cost growth!  In the long run, we only want supply of education to increase at these rates.  The paradox is unfolding:  the most “expensive” colleges are the ones offering free classes and generous financial aid for their students. 

Brick & mortar schools are shutting down, but more colleges are going online.  I don’t think governments “get it yet” because they keep pumping more money into the older business model, but I see the markets already moving in the direction that you’re suggesting.

By John on 2008 02 21

John,

I agree. I just saw today that Stanford is joining the ranks of those colleges offering free education (to those with incomes of $100,000 or lower). The education paradigm is changing—and that’s a good thing!

By jack uldrich on 2008 02 21

Nice article.  I agree that the economics underpinning hte university system will experience serious disruption.  Accelerating change transforms environment, information and human culture we’re going to need a system that teaches us to learn at a correspondingly quicker pace.  The universities that spread their teachings wide through new comm tech will capture huge market share.  The ones that choose not to follow quickly will see massive declines in revenue and attendance.  My bet is this shake-out begins sometime around 2012-2013 as bandwidth widens computers can better process super-rich VWs.

By Alvis on 2008 03 04

If past is prologue, the rising cost of college is not sustainable IF there are cost effective alternatives to the “buyers.” Traditionally, higher education provided a library, science labs and classrooms where content was delivered to sitting students.  With greatly improving technology, the world of education is indeed becoming flat thus greatly opening avenues of access to learners. The key may be “outcome” assessments rather than the current accreditation process based on inputs (number of books in the library, percentage of PHds, etc.).

By Tim Farnham on 2008 03 12

Tim,

I think your comment about “outcome assessments” is spot-on. In the future, it won’t matter where you learned something. What will matter is your ability to demonstrate what you know.

By jack uldrich on 2008 03 12

You may be correct, but not for the reasons you state.  There is a misconception going about, also held by many teachers, that education is about knowledge of content.  In actual fact it is a process of engaging with information, trying to do something with it, having your efforts commented on by an expert and finally having your grasp of the knowledge evaluated and accredited.  This is where the colleges add value and MIT knows this (hence their willingness to give away content for nothing).  However, whereas once this process had to take place on a face to face basis it can now take place remotely and asynchronously and still be quite effective.  It is the quality of remote communications, not the ease of reproduction of information that may make this possible.

By Brian Mulligan on 2008 03 30

I don’t think that the future of college is that bright, we need the reorganize our educational system and find new challenging motivations for our youngsters. I think we need to focus more on flexibility and mobility.
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By Larry on 2008 10 15

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By california university on 2009 12 14

Education should be free for all. Online education is a good way to earn a degree and expand knowledge. Universities should made education more available through online courses and should offer lower priced packages.

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