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The Future of Health Care: Part 2

This past week I had to go to a local hospital and have a laproscopic procedure to repair an inguinal hernia. The operation went well and I was quizzed no fewer than six times about the nature and location of my surgery . (Apparently, they wanted to ease any concern I had about them operating on the wrong organ or the wrong side.)

The only hassle occurred after my surgery when I was detained for over an hour because the doctor failed to sign-off on my prescription medicine. I mention this information because it is symptomatic of the inefficiencies that continue to plague our health care system.

There is, however, hope on the way. In today’s Minneapolis Star Tribune today there is an informative article entitled ”Take two aspirin and e-mail me in the morning.” It discusses the enormous opportunity that exists within the health care system to save time and money if only more doctors (and patients) would agree to electronic consultations.

Now, no one is suggesting that personal doctor-to-patient meetings should be eliminated altogether, but as one doctor is quoted as saying “90% of what we do is not based on physical assessments.” In other words, much of a doctor’s business can be conducted electronically—at a substantially lower cost and in a manner that is more convenient for the patient. As proof, the article cites one innovative clinic in Portland, Oregon which is now treating 40% of its patients by e-mail.

A closer examination will reveal the huge potential. Here in Minnesota three facilities—Park Nicollet, HealthPartners and Fairview—only saw 1600 patients electronically in 2007. As readers of this blog well know, I’m a fan of exponential growth and I’d like to demonstrate the huge opportunity that awaits Minnesota citizens if those hospitals and clinics were to “jump the curve” and commit themselves to an “exponential e-mail/electronic” strategy.

In 2008, the number could grow to 3,200
In 2009—6,400
In 2010—12,800
In 2011—25,600
In 2012—51,200; and
In 2013—102,400

Just imagine the savings if within five years over 100,000 patients were being consulted electronically. It is possible, absolutely. For starters, more and more people—even the elderly—are becoming comfortable with computers. Add to this the continued advances in semiconductor and bandwidth capability and it is clear that electronic communication is only going to get better, faster and cheaper over the next half decade.

Secondly, new emerging technologies such as ”digital plastic” and advanced medical imaging will allow doctors to monitor a growing array of vital signs, including ECG, body temperature, respiration and physical activity. This means more patients can be monitored and consulted electronically for a greater range of health issues.

Third, due to advances such as IBM and Duke Medical are pursuing in the field of online resources, a more digitalized health care information system will allow patients to find test results, send confidential information and even schedule appoitments. It will also allow doctors and nurses access to personal health profiles and clinical content.

Four, new technologies such as IBM’s ”Digital Patient Avatar” will allow doctors and nurses instant access to all of a patient’s medical information, including x-rays and past visits.

Finally, doctors must continue to harnass the growing power of online social networks, such as Imedix is pursuing, to assist patients make better health care decisions.

Combined all of these factors together and there is no reason to think that hospitals can’t generate significant savings over the next five years while, at the same time, providing patients with better and more timely information.

(Note: Part III of this series will look at the emerging role of robotics in the health care sector).

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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.

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